Mean Absolute Percentage Error Of Model Research Articles

Short-term load forecasting with using multiple linear regression

In this paper short term load forecasting (STLF) is done with using multiple linear regression (MLR). A day ahead load forecasting is obtained in this paper. Regression coefficients were found out with the help of method of least square estimation. Load in electrical power system is dependent on temperature, due point and seasons and also load has correlation to the previous load consumption (Historical data). So the input variables are temperature, due point, load of prior day, hours, and load of prior week. To validate the model or check the accuracy of the model mean absolute percentage error is used and R squared is checked which is shown in result section. Using day ahead forecasted data weekly forecast is also obtained.

An Analysis of the Interactions between Adjustment Factors of Saturation Flow Rates at Signalized Intersections

An insufficient functional relationship between adjustment factors and saturation flow rate (SFR) in the U.S. Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) method increases an additional prediction bias. The error of SFR predictions can reach 8–10%. To solve this problem, this paper proposes a comprehensive adjusted method that considers the effects of interactions between factors. Based on the data from 35 through lanes in Beijing and 25 shared through and left-turn lanes in Washington, DC, the interactions between lane width and percentage of heavy vehicles and proportion of left-turning vehicles were analyzed. Two comprehensive adjustment factor models were established and tested. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of model 1 (considering the interaction between lane width and percentage of heavy vehicles) was 4.89% smaller than the MAPE of Chinese National Standard method (Standard Number is GB50647) at 13.64%. The MAPE of model 2 (considering the interaction between lane width and proportion of left-turning vehicles was 33.16% smaller than the MAPE of HCM method at 14.56%. This method could improve the accuracy of SFR prediction, provide support for traffic operation measures, alleviate the traffic congestion, and improve sustainable development of cities.

Forecasting Analysis for Global Copper Clad Laminate Market

Demand forecasting is one of critical reference by top managers to make the strategy decision for future investment. The copper clad laminate(CCL) is the key material for print circuit board(PCB) and it can apply for consumer, computer, LCD, communication, automotive, aero space, medicine and defense application. The total global sale for PCB in 2008 is US$ 48.2 billion. In this research, we use grey model GM(1,1), rolling grey model(RGM) and Bass diffusion model to analysis global CCL market by six market segments — paper, composite, FR-4, FR-4 High Tg, FR-4 halogen free, Specialty between 2001–2008. The forecasting accuracy of global CCL market by six market segment was evaluated along with mean absolute percentage error(MAPE). In this study, Bass diffusion model MAPE outperforms the others two models GM(1,1) and RGM for this global CCL market forecasting analysis and is recommend for global CCL market forecasting analysis.