Prediction Model Research Articles

Prediction of CO2 emissions to achieve net-zero objectives in the iron and steel sectors of North America

ABSTRACT Predictive models are widely used to create effective plans for reducing CO2 emissions in manufacturing. The Iron and Steel (I&S) industries play a crucial role in meeting international commitments to achieve Net-zero emissions by 2050. The objective of this study is to forecast carbon dioxide emissions from the I&S industries in North America through the utilization of a Multi-Objective Mathematical model. The proposed data-driven approach is integrated with various machine learning algorithms capable of accurately predicting future values with a small dataset. Additionally, sensitivity analyses under different scenarios are conducted to evaluate the impact of implementing proposed solutions by the research community. Results show a significant improvement in accuracy through the employment of the Whale Optimization Algorithm (WOA). Forecasts reveal a sustained increment of 0.7 MtCO2 every year spanning between 2022 and 2050. This study provides valuable information for stakeholders and policymakers as it allows a more precise evaluation to integrate new technologies to abate forthcoming CO2 emissions.

Impact of tooth loss and patient characteristics on coronary artery calcium score classification and prediction.

This study, for the first time, explores the integration of data science and machine learning for the classification and prediction of coronary artery calcium (CAC) scores. It focuses on tooth loss and patient characteristics as key input features to enhance the accuracy of classifying CAC scores into tertiles and predicting their values. Advanced analytical techniques were employed to assess the effectiveness of tooth loss and patient characteristics in the classification and prediction of CAC scores. The study utilized data science and machine learning methodologies to analyze the relationships between these input features and CAC scores. The research evaluated the individual and combined contributions of patient characteristics and tooth loss on the accuracy of identifying individuals at higher risk of cardiovascular issues related to CAC. The findings indicated that patient characteristics were particularly effective for tertile classification of CAC scores, achieving a classification accuracy of 75%. Tooth loss alone provided more accurate predicted CAC scores with the smallest average mean squared error of regression and with a classification accuracy of 71%. The combination of patient characteristics and tooth loss demonstrated improved accuracy in identifying individuals at higher risk with the best sensitivity rate of 92% over patient characteristics (85%) and tooth loss (88%). The results highlight the significance of both oral health indicators and patient characteristics in predictive modeling and classification tasks for CAC scores. By integrating data science and machine learning techniques, the research provides a foundation for further exploration of the connections between oral health, patient characteristics, and cardiovascular outcomes, emphasizing their importance in advancing the accuracy of CAC score classification and prediction.

Prediction of Ki-67 expression and malignant potential in gastrointestinal stromal tumors: novel models based on CE-CT and serological indicators.

To identify more reliable imaging and serological indicators for predicting Ki-67 expression and malignant potential in gastrointestinal stromal tumors, as well as to develop a preoperative prediction model with clinical utility. This study retrospectively analyzed patients with gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GIST) diagnosed at the First Affiliated Hospital of Jinzhou Medical University between May 2018 and May 2024. Univariate logistic analyses, two-way stepwise regression, P-value stepwise regression, and LASSO regression were employed to screen for Ki-67 high expression and high malignant potential risk factors associated with GIST. Models were established using various regression methods; Nomograms, calibration curves, and clinical decision curves were generated for the two best prediction models. Two-way stepwise regression analysis revealed that diameter (P=0.037; OR=1.22; 95% CI: 1.01 - 1.46), growth pattern (extraluminal type: P=0.028; OR=3.54; 95% CI: 1.14 - 10.94), enhancement model (P=0.099; OR=0.39; 95% CI: 0.12 - 1.20), EVFDM (P=0.069; OR=0.43; 95% CI: 0.17 - 1.07), PLR (P=0.099; OR=3.06; 95% CI: 0.81 - 11.59), and OPNI (P=0.058; OR=2.38; 95% CI: 0.97 - 5.84) are identified as independent risk factors for Ki-67 expression. Utilizing the two-way stepwise regression model to predict Ki-67 expression, the area under the curve (AUC) for the training group was 0.865 (95% CI: 0.807-0.922), while for the validation group it was 0.784 (95% CI: 0.631-0.937). The Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) for the training group were 153.360 and 174.619, respectively. Two-way stepwise regression analysis revealed that volume (P < .001, OR = 1.06; 95% CI: 1.03 - 1.09), contour (P = 0.066; OR = 0.17; 95% CI: 0.05 - 0.62), ulcer (P = 0.094; OR = 0.16; 95% CI: 0.03 - 0.98), IBSC (P = 0.008; OR = 5.27; 95% CI: 1.57 - 17.69), and OPNI (P = 0.045; OR = 0.22; 95% CI: 0.05 - 0.96) are independent risk factors for malignant potential. Utilizing the two-way stepwise regression model to predict malignant potential, the AUC for the training group was 0.950 (95% CI: 0.920 - 0.980), while for the validation group it was 0.936 (95% CI: 0.867 - 1.000). The AIC and BIC values for the training group were 96.330 and 114.552, respectively. Diameter, growth pattern, enhancement pattern, EVFDM, PLR, and OPNI are independent risk factors for GIST with high Ki-67 expression. Additionally, volume, contour, ulceration, IBSC, and OPNI serve as independent risk factors for GIST with high malignant potential. The preoperative models developed using CT images can predict the malignant potential and Ki-67 expression status of GIST to a certain extent. When combined with serological indicators, these models' predictive performance can be further enhanced.

NeuDen: a framework for the integration of neuromorphic evolving spiking neural networks with dynamic evolving neuro-fuzzy systems for predictive and explainable modelling of streaming data

NeuDen: a framework for the integration of neuromorphic evolving spiking neural networks with dynamic evolving neuro-fuzzy systems for predictive and explainable modelling of streaming data

The Multi-State Epigenetic Pacemaker enables the identification of combinations of factors that influence DNA methylation.

Epigenetic clocks, DNA methylation-based predictive models of chronological age, are often utilized to study aging associated biology. Despite their widespread use, these methods do not account for other factors that also contribute to the variability of DNA methylation data. For example, many CpG sites show strong sex-specific or cell-type-specific patterns that likely impact the predictions of epigenetic age. To overcome these limitations, we developed a multidimensional extension of the Epigenetic Pacemaker, the Multi-state Epigenetic Pacemaker (MSEPM). We show that the MSEPM is capable of accurately modeling multiple methylation-associated factors simultaneously, while also providing site-specific models that describe the per site relationship between methylation and these factors. We utilized the MSEPM with a large aggregate cohort of blood methylation data to construct models of the effects of age-, sex-, and cell-type heterogeneity on DNA methylation. We found that these models capture a large faction of the variability at thousands of DNA methylation sites. Moreover, this approach allows us to identify sites that are primarily affected by aging and no other factors. An analysis of these sites reveals that those that lose methylation over time are enriched for CTCF transcription factor chip peaks, while those that gain methylation over time are associated with bivalent promoters of genes that are not expressed in blood. These observations suggest mechanisms that underlie age-associated methylation changes and suggest that age-associated increases in methylation may not have strong functional consequences on cell states. In conclusion, the MSEPM is capable of accurately modeling multiple methylation-associated factors, and the models produced can illuminate site-specific combinations of factors that affect methylation dynamics.

NO classifier prediction of anti neuroinflammatory agents using text mining of 3D molecular fingerprints.

CNS Drug discovery has been challenging due to the lack of clarity on CNS diseases' basic biological and pathological mechanisms. Despite the difficulty, some CNS drugs have been developed based on phenotypic effects. Herein, we propose a phenotype-structure relationship model, which predicts an anti-neuroinflammatory potency based on 3D molecular structures of the phenotype-active or inactive compounds without specifying targets. For this chemo-centric study, a predictive model of the nitric oxide (NO) inhibitory potency in hyper-activated microglia is built from the 548 agents, which were collected from 95 research articles (28 substructures consisting of natural products and synthetic scaffolds) and doubly externally validated by the agents of 9 research articles as third set. 3D Structures (multi-conformer ensemble) of every agent were encoded into the E3FP molecular fingerprint of the Keiser group as a 3D molecular representation. The location information of the molecular fingerprints could be learned and validated to classify the inhibitory potency of compounds (IC50 cut-off between the active and inactive: 37.1 µM): (1) multi-layer perceptron (MLP) (AUC-CV: 0.997, AUC-Test: 0.992), (2) recurrent neural network (RNN) (AUC-CV: 0.999, AUC-Test: 0.995), and (3) convolutional neural network (CNN) (AUC-CV: 0.998, AUC-Test: 0.994). The high performance of these models was compared with that of four classical machine classification models (Logistic, Ridge, Lasso, and Naïve Bayes). We named the binary classification models NO-Classifier. Independent test set validation and decision region analysis of the independent test set doubly demonstrated NO-Classifier effectively discerned the anti-inflammatory potency of testing compounds in inflammatory cell phenotype with the webserver in https://no-classifier.onrender.com.

Research on information leakage in time series prediction based on empirical mode decomposition.

Time series analysis predicts the future based on existing historical data and has a wide range of applications in finance, economics, meteorology, biology, engineering, and other fields. Although the combination of decomposition techniques and machine learning algorithms can effectively solve the problem of predicting nonstationary sequences, this kind of decomposition-integration-prediction strategy of the prediction method has serious defects. After the decomposition of the division of the training set and the test set, the information of the test set in the process of decomposition of the information leakage ultimately shows a high accuracy of the prediction of the illusionary. This paper proposes three improvement strategies for this type of "information leakage" problem: sliding window decomposition (SW-EMD), single training and multiple decomposition (STMP-EMD), and multiple training and multiple decomposition (MTMP-EMD). They are combined with a bidirectional multiscale temporal convolutional network (MSBTCN), bidirectional long- and short-term memory network (BiLSTM), and attention mechanism (DMAttention), which introduces a dependency matrix based on cosine similarity to be applied to water quality prediction. The experimental results show that the model achieves good performance in the prediction of three water quality indicators (pH, DO and KMnO4), and the accuracies of the three models proposed in this paper are improved by 1.958% and 0.853% in terms of the RMSE and MAPE, respectively, compared with those of the mainstream LSTM models. The key contributions of this study include the following: (1) three methods are proposed to improve the class EMD decomposition, which can effectively solve the problem of "information leakage" that exists in the current models via class EMD decomposition; (2) the CEEMDAN-MSBTCN-BiLSTM-DMAttention model structure is innovated by combining improved class EMD decomposition methods; and (3) the three improved decomposition methods proposed in this paper can effectively solve the problem of "information leakage" and optimize the prediction model at the same time. This study provides an effective experimental method for water quality prediction and can effectively address the problem of "overfitting" models via class EMD decompositions during model training and testing.

Prediction of Salicornia europaea L. biomass using a computer vision system to distinguish different salt-tolerant populations.

Salicornia europaea L. is emerging as a versatile crop halophyte, requiring a low-cost, non-destructive method for salt tolerance classification to aid selective breeding. We propose using a computer vision system (CVS) with multivariate analysis to classify S. europaea based on morphometric and colour traits to predict plant biomass and the salinity in their substrate. A trial and validation set of 96 and 24 plants from 2 populations confirmedthe efficacy. CVS and multivariate analysis evaluated the plants by morphometric traits and CIELab colour variability. Through Pearson analysis, the strongest correlations were between biomass fresh weight (FW) vs. projected area (PA) (0.91) and anatomical cross-section (ACS) vs. shoot diameter (Sd) (0.94). The PA and FW correlation retrieved different equation fits between lower and higher salt-tolerant populations (R2 = 0.93 for linear and 0.90 for 2nd-degree polynomial), respectively. The higher salt-tolerant reached a maximum biomass PA at 400 mM NaCl, while the lower salt-tolerant produced less under 200 and 400 mM. A second Pearson correlation and PCA described sample variability with 80% reliability using only morphometric-colour parameters. Multivariate discriminant analysis (MDA) demonstrated that the method correctly classifies plants (90%) depending on their salinity level and tolerance, which was validated with 100% effectiveness. Through multiple linear regression, a predictive model successfully estimated biomass production by PA, and a second model predicted the salinity substrate (Sal.s.) where the plants thrive. Plants' Sd and height influenced PA prediction, while Sd and colour difference (ΔE1) influenced Sal.s. Models validation of actual vs. predicted values showed a R2 of 0.97 and 0.90 for PA, and 0.95 and 0.97 for Sal.s. for lower and higher salt-tolerant, respectively. This outcome confirms the method as a cost-effective tool for managing S. europaea breeding. The CVS effectively extracted morphological and colour features from S. europaea cultivated at different salinity levels, enabling classification and plant sorting through image and multivariate analysis. Biomass and salinity substrate were accurately predicted by modelling non-destructive parameters. Enhanced by AI, machine learning and smartphone technology, this method shows great potential in ecology, bio-agriculture, and industry.

The perioperative frailty index derived from the Chinese hospital information system: a validation study.

There are various frailty assessment tools in the world, and the application choice of frailty assessment tools for the elderly perioperative population varies. It remains unclear which frailty assessment tool is more suitable for the perioperative population in China. To validate the Perioperative Frailty Index (FI-32) derived from the Chinese Hospital Information System by investigating the impact of preoperative frailty on postoperative outcomes, and ascertain the diagnostic value of FI-32 for predicting postoperative complications through comparing with the FRAIL scale and the modified Frailty Index (mFI-11). A prospective cohort study was conducted in a tertiary hospital. Elderly patients who were 60 years or older and underwent selective operation were included. The FI-32, FRAIL scale, and mFI-11 were assessed. Demographic, surgical variables and outcome variables were extracted from medical records. The data of readmission and mortality within 30 days and 90 days of surgery were ascertained by Telephone follow-up by professionally trained researchers. Multiple logistic regression was used to examine the association between frailty and complications. Receiver operating characteristic curves(ROC) were used to compare FI-32 with mFI-11 and FRAIL, to explore the predictive ability of frailty. 335 patients qualified for the inclusion criteria and were enrolled in the study, and among them, 201 (60.0%) were females, and the Median(P25, P75)age at surgery was 69 (65,74) years. The prevalence of frailty in the study population was 16.4% (assessed by FI-32). After adjusting for concomitant variables including demographic characteristics (such as gender, BMI, smoking, drinking, average monthly income and educational level) and surgical factors (such as surgical approach, surgical site, anesthesia method, operation time, intraoperative bleeding, and intraoperative fluid intake), there was a statistically significant association between frailty and the development of postoperative complication after surgery (OR = 3.051, 95% CI:1.460-6.378, P = 0.003). There were also significant differences in mortality within 30 days of surgery, the length of hospital stay (LOS) and the hospitalization costs. FI-32, FRAIL and mFI-11 showed a moderate predictive ability for postoperative complications, the Area Under Curves (AUCs) were 0.582, 0.566 and 0.531, respectively. With adjusting concomitant variables associated with postoperative complications, the AUCs of FI-32, FRAIL and mFI-11 in the adjusted prediction models were 0.824, 0.827 and 0.820 respectively. The FI-32 has a predictive effect on postoperative adverse outcomes in elderly Chinese patients. Compared to FRAIL and mFI-11, the FI-32 had the same ability to predict postoperative complications, and FI-32 can be extracted directly from HIS, which greatly saves the time for clinical medical staff to evaluate perioperative frailty.

Enhancing predictive modeling of nano metal matrix composites with LEO-HDNN approach

Enhancing predictive modeling of nano metal matrix composites with LEO-HDNN approach

Clinical and Genetic Markers of Vascular Toxicity in Glioblastoma Patients: Insights from NRG Oncology RTOG-0825.

Glioblastoma (GBM) is an aggressive form of brain cancer in which treatment is associated with toxicities that can result in therapy discontinuation or death. This analysis investigated clinical and genetic markers of vascular toxicities in GBM patients during active treatment. 591 Non-Hispanic White GBM patients with clinical data were included in the analysis from NRG RTOG-0825. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) were performed from genotyped blood samples (N=367) by occurrence of thrombosis or hypertension (grade ≥2). A clinical prediction model was produced for each vascular toxicity. Significant GWAS variants were then added to the clinical model as a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) -dose effect variable to produce the final genetic models. Thrombosis and hypertension were experienced by 62 (11%) and 59 (10%) patients, respectively. Patients who experienced hypertension displayed improved survival over those without hypertension (median overall survival: 25.72 vs 15.47 months, p=0.002). The genetic model of thrombosis included corticosteroid use (OR: 7.13, p=0.02), absolute neutrophil count (OR: 1.008, p=0.19), body surface area (OR: 18.87, p=0.0008), and the SNP-dose effect (3 variants; OR: 3.79, p<.0001). The genetic model of hypertension included bevacizumab use (OR: 0.97, p=0.95) and the SNP-dose effect (6 variants; OR: 4.44, p<.0001). In this study, germline variants were superior in predicting hypertension than clinical variables alone. Additionally, corticosteroid use was a considerable risk factor for thrombosis. Future investigations should confirm the hazard of corticosteroid use on thrombosis and the impact of bevacizumab in other malignancies after accounting for the genetic risk of hypertension.

Predictive models for bone remodeling during orthodontic tooth movement: a scoping review on the “biological metamaterial” periodontal ligament interface

Predictive models for bone remodeling during orthodontic tooth movement: a scoping review on the “biological metamaterial” periodontal ligament interface

Development and validation of a predictive risk tool for VTE in women with breast cancer under chemotherapy: a cohort study in China.

The incidence of venous thromboembolism (VTE) is significantly elevated in breast cancer patients, with a three-to-fourfold increase, and further escalates to sixfold in those undergoing chemotherapy. This study aims to identify the risk factors for VTE and develop a Nomogram risk prediction model distinct from the traditional Khorana score. Univariate Cox regression analysis assessed the impact of each variable on the occurrence of VTE, while stepwise multivariate Cox regression analysis identified independent predictors. Based on these results, we constructed a Nomogram model. The model's performance was validated using the C-index, receiver-operating characteristic curve (ROC), calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Comparisons were made with the Khorana score to evaluate the practical application value. Out of the 903 patients, 108 (11.96%) developed VTE. Cox regression analysis identified that Stage, undergoing surgery, age, white blood cells (WBC), D-dimer, and carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) were significant risk factors for VTE (P < 0.05). The Nomogram model's C-index was 0.77 (95% CI 0.72-0.83) in the training set and 0.76 (95% CI 0.69-0.84) in the validation set. The model demonstrated excellent predictive accuracy and generalizability on the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves and calibration curves. Compared to the traditional Khorana score, the Nomogram model showed superior predictive accuracy and greater clinical benefit. This study established a VTE risk prediction model for breast cancer patients undergoing chemotherapy. The model is characterized by its intuitive and straightforward application, making it highly suitable for rapid VTE risk assessment in clinical practice.

Untargeted metabolomics to detect and identify plasma metabolic signatures associated with intracranial aneurysm and its rupture.

The biological basis for metabolic differences between unruptured and ruptured intracranial aneurysm (UIA and RIA) populations and their potential role in triggering IA rupture remain unclear. The aim of this study was to analyze the plasma metabolic profiles of patients with UIA and RIA using an untargeted metabolomic approach and to develop a model for early rupture classification. Plasma samples were analyzed using an ultra-high-performance liquid chromatography high-resolution tandem mass spectrometry-based platform. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression and random forest machine learning methods were employed for metabolite feature selection and predictive model construction. Among 49 differential plasma metabolites identified, 31 were increased and 18 were decreased in the plasma of RIA patients. Five key metabolites-canrenone, piperine, 1-methyladenosine, betaine, and trigonelline-were identified as having strong potential to discriminate between UIA and RIA patients. This combination of metabolites demonstrated high diagnostic accuracy, with an area under the curve exceeding 0.95 in both the training and validation datasets. Our finding highlights the significance of plasma metabolites as potential biomarkers for early detection of IA rupture risk, offering new insights for clinical practice and future research on IA management.

Assessing the clinical value of day 7 blastocysts: a predictive model for preimplantation genetic testing for aneuploidy (PGT-A) cycles.

To identify the benefit of extending embryo culture until day (D)7 based on patients and cycle characteristics. A retrospective cohort study was conducted including 25,120 blastocysts from 5278 PGT-A autologous cycles between 2017 and 2022. A theoretical cumulative live birth rate (CLBR) was calculated by binomial density function. An increase of ≥ 5% in theoretical CLBR was considered a tangible benefit when obtaining ≥ 1 euploid D7 blastocyst and ≤ 3 euploid blastocysts from D5/D6. A predictive model was built considering the number of embryos eligible for extended culture until D7, number of blastocysts already biopsied on D5/D6, and patient's age. Euploidy rates decreased for blastocysts biopsied on D5, D6, and D7 (55.6%, 39.7%, and 27.1%, P < 0.001, respectively). The probability of tangible benefit was increased with more embryos available for extended culture until D7, was decreased with higher D5/D6 blastocysts already biopsied and for older patients. The overall AUC of the final model in the validation sets was 0.75 (95% CI 0.72-0.78). Based on the predictive model, in poor cycles (< 1% tangible benefit), the benefit rate from extended culture was 0.3% and for moderate, good, and best cycles (1-10%, 10-20%, and ≥ 20% tangible benefit) were 4.4%, 14.0%, and 29.3%, respectively. An application of the predictive model is available online for external testing: https://artfertilityclinics.shinyapps.io/WET-D7/ . The predictive model provides a decision-making tool to objectively identify cycles that would benefit from extending embryo culture until D7.

Predicting neurodevelopmental disorders using machine learning models and electronic health records - status of the field.

Machine learning (ML) is increasingly used to identify patterns that could predict neurodevelopmental disorders (NDDs), such as autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). One key source of multilevel data for ML prediction models includes population-based registers and electronic health records. These can contain rich information on individual and familial medical histories and socio-demographics. This review summarizes studies published between 2010-2022 that used ML algorithms to develop predictive models for NDDs using population-based registers and electronic health records. A literature search identified 1191 articles, of which 32 were retained. Of these, 47% developed ASD prediction models and 25% ADHD models. Classical ML methods were used in 82% of studies and in particular tree-based prediction models performed well. The sensitivity of the models was lower than 75% for most studies, while the area under the curve (AUC) was greater than 75%. The most important predictors were patient and familial medical history and sociodemographic factors. Using private in-house datasets makes comparing and validating model generalizability across studies difficult. The ML model development and reporting guidelines were adopted only in a few recently reported studies. More work is needed to harness the power of data for detecting NDDs early.

Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting early acute hydrocephalus after spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage: a single-center retrospective study.

Acute hydrocephalus is a severe complication that may occur early after an intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). However, clinical factors predicting the occurrence of acute hydrocephalus have rarely been studied. This study aimed to establish a nomogram model to predict early acute hydrocephalus after ICH. We retrospectively analyzed the data of 930 patients with ICH who were treated at our hospital between January 2017 and May 2024. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression analysis was used to screen for risk factors for acute hydrocephalus, and stepwise logistic regression analysis was used to construct the prediction model, which was visualized using a nomogram. Data were randomly divided into training (n = 652) and test (n = 278) sets at a 7:3 ratio. A total of 930 patients were included, of whom 123 (13.2%) developed acute hydrocephalus within 6h of being diagnosed with ICH. Univariate analysis revealed that 11 indicators were associated with acute hydrocephalus. In the training set, LASSO and stepwise logistic regression analyses identified four independent risk factors that were used to establish a prediction model. These were the modified Graeb score, age, infratentorial hemorrhage > 15 mL, and thalamic hemorrhage > 15 mL. A graphical nomogram was then developed. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was 0.974 (95% confidence interval 0.961-0.987). In the Hosmer-Lemeshow test, the p-value was 0.887. The mean absolute error of the calibration plot was 0.012. The decision curve analysis (DCA) validated the fitness and clinical application value of this nomogram. Internal validation showed the test set was in good accordance with the training set. The nomogram prediction model showed good accuracy and could be used to predict the risk of early acute hydrocephalus after ICH, thereby aiding neurologist in making rapid clinical decisions.

Radiomics-based predictive model for preoperative risk classification of gastrointestinal stromal tumors using multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging: aretrospective study.

The aim of this study was to develop and assess aradiomics model utilizing multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for the prediction of preoperative risk assessment in gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs). An analysis was performed retrospectively on agroup of 121 patients who received ahistological diagnosis of GIST. They were then divided into two sets, with85 in the training set and 36 in the validation set through random partitioning. Radiomics features from five MRI sequences, totaling 600 per patient, were extracted and subjected to feature selection utilizing arandom forest algorithm. The discriminatory efficacy of the models was evaluated through receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and precision-recall (P-R) curve analyses. Model calibration was assessed via calibration curves. Subgroup analysis was performed on GISTs with apathological maximum diameter equal to or less than 5 cm. Furtherly, Kaplan-Meier (K-M) curves and log-rank tests were used to compare the differences in survival status among different groups. Cox regression analysis was employed to identify independent prognostic factors and to construct aprognostic prediction model. The clinical model (ModelC) displayed limited predictive efficacy in the context of GIST. Conversely, aradiomics model (ModelR) incorporating five parameters exhibited robust discriminative capabilities across both the training and validation sets, yielding area under the ROC curve (AUC) values of 0.893 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.807-0.949) and 0.855 (95% CI: 0.732-0.978), respectively. The F1max scores derived from the P‑R curves were 0.741 and 0.842 for the training and validation sets, respectively. Noteworthy was the exclusion of the two-dimensional tumor diameter and tumor location when constructing ahybrid model (ModelCR) that amalgamated radiomics and clinical features. ModelR demonstrated asubstantially enhanced discriminative capacity in the training set compared with ModelC (p < 0.005). The net reclassification improvement (NRI) corroborated the superior performance of ModelR over ModelC, thereby enhancing diagnostic accuracy and clinical applicability. Patients in the high-risk group had significantly worse recurrence-free survival (RFS, p < 0.001) and overall survival (OS, p = 0.004), and the radiomics signature is an independent risk factor for RFS. The extended model incorporating the radiomics signature outperformed the baseline model in terms of risk assessment accuracy (p < 0.001). Our investigation underscores the value of integrating radiomics analysis in conjunction with machine learning algorithms for prognostic risk stratification in GIST, presenting promising implications for informing clinical decision-making processes as well as optimizing management strategies.

Development and validation of a risk prediction model for cognitive impairment in breast cancer patients.

Breast cancer patients often experience cognitive impairment as a complication during treatment, which seriously affects their quality of life. This study aimed to assess the risk factors associated with cognitive impairment in breast cancer patients and to construct and validate a nomogram model to predict cognitive impairment in this population. In this study, we used a convenience sampling method to select 423 breast cancer patients who attended the Department of Breast Surgery at the First Hospital of Jinzhou Medical University from September 2023 to March 2024. We analyzed these patients' cognitive impairment risk factors through LASSO regression and logistic regression analysis to develop a predictive model. The model was evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC) from the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the calibration curve and decision curve analysis. This study found a prevalence of cognitive impairment of 19.62% among breast cancer patients. A nomogram model was developed based on six influencing factors: age, educational level, pathological type, treatment program, emotional state, and fatigue. The area under the curve (AUC) for the model's training and validation groups was 0.944 and 0.931, respectively. The model calibration curves showed a high degree of consistency, and the decision curve analysis (DCA) indicated good clinical applicability of the model. This nomogram demonstrates good discrimination, calibration, and clinical applicability, making it a more intuitive predictor of the risk of cognitive impairment in breast cancer patients.

Putative past, present, and future spatial distributions of deep-sea coral and sponge microbiomes revealed by predictive models

Abstract Knowledge of spatial distribution patterns of biodiversity is key to evaluate and ensure ocean integrity and resilience. Especially for the deep ocean, where in situ monitoring requires sophisticated instruments and considerable financial investments, modelling approaches are crucial to move from scattered data points to predictive continuous maps. Those modelling approaches are commonly run on the macrobial level, but spatio-temporal predictions of host-associated microbiomes are not being targeted. This is especially problematic as previous research has highlighted that host-associated microbes may display distribution patterns that are not perfectly correlated with host biogeographies, but also with other factors such as prevailing environmental conditions. We here establish a new simulation approach and present predicted spatio-temporal distribution patterns of deep-sea sponge and coral microbiomes, making use of a combination of environmental data, host data, and microbiome data. This approach allows predictions of microbiome spatio-temporal distribution patterns on scales that are currently not covered by classical sampling approaches at sea. In summary, our presented predictions allow (i) identification of microbial biodiversity hotspots in the past, present, and future, (ii) trait-based predictions to link microbial with macrobial biodiversity, and (iii) identification of shifts in microbial community composition (key taxa) across environmental gradients and shifting environmental conditions.