IntroductionPeripheral blood stem cells (PBSC) mobilization with granulocyte colony stimulating factor (G-CSF) for healthy donors is generally performed at 5th day. However, earlier collection is sometimes feasible, raising the question of whether to initiate apheresis early to limit further G-CSF exposure, while considering the risk of mobilization failure. In the current study, we examined the factors predicting successful 4th day collection and developed a model that can be used practically. Patients and methodsThe study was carried out by obtaining the data of PBSC mobilizations performed between January 2009 and September 2022 in our transplantation center. ResultsA total of 141 healthy donors with a median donor age of 32 (18–64) were included. Adequate mobilization was achieved in 115 (81.6 %) patients. Median peripheral CD34 + cell count was 69.4/μL in the adequate mobilization group and 46/μL in the mobilization failure group (p < 0001). Multivariate analysis revealed that donor/recipient weight ratio and the 4th day peripheral CD34 + cell count≥ 50/μL were independent markers for 4th day collection success. A predictive model of our center including these parameters was available with 0.765 sensitivity and 0.968 specificity [(AUC):0.948 (95 % CI, 0.90–0.99), p < 0.001]. ConclusionThe result of the current study shows that peripheral 4th day collection can be performed in selected donors, taking into account peripheral CD34+ cell count and donor/recipient weight ratio. In addition, using these indicators, new predictive models can be created that may assist clinicians in daily practice.