Climate Change Mitigation Measures Research Articles

The choice of land-based climate change mitigation measures influences future global biodiversity loss

Climate mitigation is reported to benefit biodiversity globally. However, the impacts of mitigation measures based on large-scale land-use modifications can be concentrated in the regions where they are introduced, resulting in regional mismatches between mitigation efforts and biodiversity benefits. Here, we evaluated the impacts of large-scale deployment of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage and afforestation to attain the climate stabilization target stated by the Paris Agreement on global and regional biodiversity by using an integrated model framework. Our results highlight that climate mitigation efforts can benefit global biodiversity regardless of large-scale implementation of land-based mitigation measures. However, the negative impacts of mitigation measures on biodiversity are concentrated in regions with a higher contribution to land-use change and carbon sequestration. The results imply the need to consider the unequal regional distribution of benefits from climate mitigation, as well as mitigation options that avoid regional biodiversity loss by minimizing land-use change.

A warming-induced glacier reduction causes lower streamflow in the upper Tarim River Basin

Study areaThree headwater basins of the Tarim River Study focusThis study built upon existing knowledge by incorporating threshold melting temperatures into the Spatial Processes in Hydrology (SPHY) model and decomposing the streamflow changes into individual runoff components. Additional glacier retreat rate data were used to calibrate the improved SPHY, which provides better constrained estimates of glacier response to climate change. We employed bias-corrected simulations from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models to drive the improved SPHY under four future scenarios (SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0, and SSP5–8.5). New hydrological insights for the regionModeling results show accelerated glacier melt in the future, with glacier volume at the end of this century projected to be less than 20% of the current level under SSP5–8.5. Furthermore, future streamflow is expected to decrease, most notably in the Karakash River basin under the SSP1–2.6 scenario. The reduction in streamflow, mainly during the summer months, results from decreased glacier melt runoff, which cannot be offset by increased rainfall runoff. Additionally, the implementation of climate change mitigation measures could delay glacier loss, but the dominant component of runoff would still shift from current glacier melt to future rainfall. Plain language summaryGlobal warming accelerates the hydrological cycle, altering the temporal and spatial patterns of streamflow, especially in cold regions, such as the Tarim River Basin. Understanding future streamflow changes is important for the economic development and ecological protection of this region, which will help to manage the risk of water shortages and to plan engineering works to mitigate water shortage crises. We therefore used state-of-the-art climate simulation to project future streamflow changes over three basins of the Upper Tarim River. We found that under all future scenarios, runoff will decrease in these basins. This decrease is mainly due to glacier retreat and cannot be mitigated by anticipated increases in rainfall in the future.

Synthesizing the Ecological and Societal Ramifications of Environmental Stressors on Philippine Marine Ecosystems: A Comprehensive Literature Review

Coral reefs, which serve as essential ecosystems that support marine biodiversity and coastal populations, are declining at an alarming rate worldwide, including in the Philippines. This study explores the specific effects of overfishing, the causes, and effects of pollution on Philippine waters to understand better rising sea levels, ocean acidification, the overall impact of climate change on coral reefs, and the value of these coral habitats to local communities. Data were acquired using a qualitative approach through literature reviews of secondary sources. The findings show that overfishing, pollution, climate change, and habitat destruction are major causes of coral reef decline in the Philippines. These factors have resulted in severe reductions in coral cover, biodiversity loss, and decreased ecosystem services. Furthermore, coral reef decline has far-reaching consequences for Philippine biodiversity, including decreased resistance to environmental stressors and greater vulnerability of coastal people. This study highlights the urgency for coordinated conservation initiatives, such as enhanced management tactics, sustainable fishing practices, and climate change mitigation measures. Recommendations include creating marine protected areas, stronger coastal development rules, and public awareness programs to support coral reef protection. Addressing coral reef loss is crucial for protecting Philippine biodiversity and ensuring the long-term viability of marine ecosystems.

Benefits of air quality for human health resulting from climate change mitigation through dietary change and food loss prevention policy

AbstractFood production, particularly cattle husbandry, contributes significantly to air pollution and its associated health hazards. However, making changes in dietary habits, such as reducing red meat consumption and minimizing food waste, can lead to substantial improvements in both air quality and human health. In this study, we explored the impact of dietary changes on future air quality and human wellbeing. We also assessed the influence of dietary transformation policies in the context of climate change mitigation, with the objective of understanding how policies can effectively complement each other. We used a chemical transport model and an integrated assessment model to determine changes in fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) concentrations. Then, an exposure model was applied to estimate premature deaths as a consequence of air pollution. Our results showed that dietary changes could play a crucial role in mitigating air pollution, particularly in regions where agricultural activities emit significant quantities of ammonia. In the European Union, for example, dietary changes could lead to a reduction of 5.34% in PM2.5 by 2050. Similarly, in Asia, the models projected a reduction of 6.23% in PM2.5 by 2100. Ground surface O3 levels in Southeast Asia were projected to drop by as much as 12.93% by 2100. Our results further showed that dietary changes could lead to significant reductions in global mortality associated with PM2.5 and O3, with 187,500 and 131,110 avoided deaths per year expected by 2100. A combined approach that integrates dietary changes with climate change mitigation measures could lead to more comprehensive air quality improvements in specific regions. However, careful consideration is needed to address any potential adverse effects on O3 concentrations in some areas.

Energy policy and climate change mitigation at national level in the European Union: A case study of Lithuania

The European Union (EU) is addressing global climate change issues in the formulation of energy policy for many years. Each EU member state plays a pivotal role in realising ambitious goals and implementing measures for energy policy and climate change mitigation. This study introduces a composite indicator, serving as a metric to assess the progress achieved in the implementation of national-level energy and climate change policy in Lithuania, scrutinises Lithuania's adopted energy policy frameworks and computes a short-term index forecast. The indicator created is applied for a case study of Lithuania in the period of 2010–2021 taking into account different importance of the indicators selected. Results indicate a gradual annual increase in achievements whit an overall growth of 72% over the last 11 years. However, both the attained results and the short-term index forecast suggest that expected growth rates are insufficient to meet ambitious regional and national climate change and energy targets. The proposed indicator is universal and adaptable for measuring energy policy achievements in various countries, allowing comparisons and rankings of countries, and analysis of best practices. This case study contributes to a broader understanding of energy policy and climate change mitigation at the national level within the EU.

Paleo-tropical cyclone activity over the last millennium inferred from shipwreck relics in the Xisha Islands, northern South China Sea

The prediction of the impact of long-term climate change on tropical cyclone (TC) activity has become a global concern, for which paleotempestology could provide crucial information about TC activity before instrumental archives. The ancient shipwrecks could alternatively be applied to retrieve paleo-TC activity owing to strong TC activity being among the dominant causes of historical shipwrecks. This study presents a preliminary study exploring the potential relationship between the shipwrecks and TC activity based on the compilation of shipwreck relics and chronological assessments of porcelains associated with the shipwrecks in the Xisha Islands, in the northern South China Sea (SCS). The compilation generally spans from the Song Dynasty to the Qing Dynasty (approximately 960 to 1850 CE), showing relatively enhanced shipwreck events during the time interval between 1400 and 1700 CE, consistent with the increased moisture and flood events during this period from other adjacent sedimentary records. Further analysis suggests that paleo-TC activity was controlled by multiple mechanisms concerning the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), and Asian dust emissions. Frequent ENSO events and the southward retreat of the ITCZ would have contributed to increased moisture in tropical regions promoting TC activity during the Little Ice Age (LIA), while the dust would strengthen TC activity through atmospheric circulations. Additional work combining the archaeological and sedimentary archives should be indispensable to further understand the climatic connections and potential mechanisms of TC processes, under climate change and relevant mitigation measures.

Public opinion about solar radiation management: A cross-cultural study in 20 countries around the world

Some argue that complementing climate change mitigation measures with solar radiation management (SRM) might prove a last resort to limit global warming to 1.5 °C. To make a socially responsible decision on whether to use SRM, it is important to consider also public opinion, across the globe and particularly in the Global South, which would face the greatest risks from both global warming and SRM. However, most research on public opinion about SRM stems from the Global North. We report findings from the first large-scale, cross-cultural study on the public opinion about SRM among the general public (N = 2,248) and students (N = 4,583) in 20 countries covering all inhabited continents, including five countries from the Global South and five ‘non-WEIRD’ (i.e. not Western, Educated, Industrialised, Rich, and Democratic) countries from the Global North. As public awareness of SRM is usually low, we provided participants with information on SRM, including key arguments in favour of and against SRM that appear in the scientific debate. On average, acceptability of SRM was significantly higher in the Global South than in the ‘non-WEIRD’ Global North, while acceptability in the ‘WEIRD’ Global North was in between. However, we found substantial variation within these clusters, especially in the ‘non-WEIRD’ Global North, suggesting that countries do not form homogenous clusters and should thus be considered individually. Moreover, the average participants’ views, while generally neither strong nor polarised, differed from some expert views in important ways, including that participants perceived SRM as only slightly effective in limiting global warming. Still, our data suggests overall a conditional, reluctant acceptance. That is, while on average, people think SRM would have mostly negative consequences, they may still be willing to tolerate it as a potential last resort to fight global warming, particularly if they think SRM has only minor negative (or even positive) impacts on humans and nature.

Optimizing Agroecological Measures for Climate-Resilient Olive Farming in the Mediterranean.

In order to evaluate the potential of climate change mitigation measures on soil physiochemical properties, an experiment based on the application of five agroecological practices such as the addition of composted olive-mill wastes, recycling pruning residue, cover crops, organic insect manure, and reduced soil tillage, solely or combined, was conducted over two years (2020 to 2022) in a 48-year-old olive plantation. The results showed significant increases in soil water content during the spring and summer periods for the combined treatment (compost + pruning residue + cover crops) (ALL) compared to the control (CONT) by 41.6% and 51.3%, respectively. Also, ALL expressed the highest soil organic matter (4.33%) compared to CONT (1.65%) at 0-10 cm soil depth. When comparing soil nutrient contents, ALL (37.86 mg kg-1) and cover crops (COVER) (37.21 mg kg-1) had significant increases in soil nitrate compared to CONT (22.90 mg kg-1), the lowest one. Concerning exchangeable potassium, ALL (169.7 mg kg-1) and compost (COMP) (168.7 mg kg-1) were higher than CONT (117.93 mg kg-1) at the 0-10 cm soil depth and had, respectively an increase of 100.9% and 60.7% in calcium content compared to CONT. Over the experimental period, the implementation of the five agroecological management practices resulted in enhanced soil fertility. In a long-term Mediterranean context, this study suggests that these sustainable practices would significantly benefit farmers by improving agroecosystem services, reducing reliance on synthetic fertilizers, optimizing irrigation water use, and ultimately contributing towards a circular economy.

Policy measures effectively reduce soil nitrous oxide emissions with minor trade‐offs in crop yield

AbstractNitrous oxide (N2O) emissions are closely linked to agricultural fertilisation. European and national policy incentives have been set to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions; however, only a few evaluations have been conducted. Avoiding such emissions is an important climate change mitigation measure, but it is still uncertain which management measures over a long‐term, best out‐balance crop yield and GHG balances in agricultural systems. We here used the process‐based LandscapeDNDC model to simulate N2O emissions and trade‐offs in yield and soil nitrogen budget for four alternative arable cropping systems in three Austrian agricultural production zones belonging to different climatic regions. We evaluated statistical data on crop rotations and management practices, predominant soil types, and 10‐year daily weather conditions for four cropping systems: (1) conventional farming receiving the maximum allowed nitrogen fertilisation rate (Nmax), (2) conventional farming receiving 15% less fertiliser, (3) conventional farming receiving 25% less fertiliser, and (4) organic farming. Our results showed that soil N2O emissions could be best reduced in wet, high‐yield regions. Reducing nitrogen fertilisation by 15% and 25% mitigated N2O emissions by, on average, 22% and 39%, respectively, while the yield was reduced by 5% and 9%, respectively. In comparison, the same crops grown in the organic cropping system released 60% less N2O, but yield declined on average by 23%. Corn, winter barley, and vegetables showed the highest N2O reduction potential under reduced fertiliser input in conventional farming. In addition to N2O emissions, reduced fertilisation substantially decreased other nitrogen losses into the water and atmosphere. Generally, the soils under all cropping systems maintained a positive mean nitrogen budget. Our results suggest a significant emission reduction potential in certain production zones which, however, were accompanied by yield reductions. Knowledge of the emission patterns from cropping systems under different environmental conditions is essential to set the appropriate measures. In addition, region‐specific measures to reduce soil N2O emissions have to be in line with farmers' interests in order to facilitate the successful implementation of targeted nitrogen management.

Does BEV always help to reduce CO2 emission? impact of charging strategy

The environmental impact of battery electric vehicles (BEVs), which are an integral part of climate change mitigation measures, depends on charging strategies, such as uncontrolled charging, controlled charging (V1G), and discharging (V2G). However, the impact is unclear because power system operation involves the cost of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and flexibility requirements for imbalances caused by renewable energies. To clarify the robustness of the environmental impact of BEVs, we assessed the interactions between CO2 prices and flexibility requirements in Japan in 2030 using a production cost model. The results showed that uncontrolled charging increases CO2 emissions, whereas V1G or V2G reduces them. Further, the impact of BEVs was non-monotonic with respect to CO2 prices, implying that policymakers should carefully evaluate CO2 prices to achieve decarbonization as BEVs do not always reduce CO2 emissions. This study provides useful insights for policymakers in countries with low-cost, inflexible, and high-emission power plants.

Potential impacts of climate change on the sudan-sahel region in West Africa – Insights from Burkina Faso

The Sudan-Sahel region has long been vulnerable to environmental change. However, the intensification of global warming has led to unprecedented challenges that require a detailed understanding of climate change for this region. This study analyzes the impacts of climate change for Burkina Faso using eleven climate indices that are highly relevant to Sudan-Sahelian societies. The full ensemble of statistically downscaled NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 models (25 km) is used to determine the projected changes for the near (2031–2060) and far future (2071–2100) compared to the reference period (1985–2014) for different SSPs. Validation of the climate models against state-of-the-art reference data (CHIRPS (Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data) and ERA5 (ECMWF Reanalysis v5)) shows reasonable performance for the main climate variables with some biases. Under the SSP5–8.5, Burkina Faso is projected to experience a substantial temperature increase of more than 4.3 °C by the end of the century. Rainfall amount is projected to increase by 30 % under the SSP5–8.5, with the rainy season starting earlier and lasting longer. This could increase water availability for rainfed agriculture but is offset by a 20 % increase in evapotranspiration. The country could be at increased risk of flooding and heavy rainfall in all SSPs and future periods. Due to the pronounced temperature increase, heat stress, and cooling degree days are expected to strongly increase under the SSP8.5 scenarios, especially in the western and northern parts. Under the SSP1–2.6 and SSP2–4.5, the projected changes are much lower for the country. Thus, timely implementation of climate change mitigation measures can significantly reduce climate change impacts for this vulnerable region and strengthen population resilience for a sustainable future.

Navigating Mangrove Protection: A Jurisdictional Approach to Climate Action in South Sumatra, Indonesia

Abstract Mangrove ecosystems in Indonesia, essential for coastal protection and carbon sequestration, are under severe threat from deforestation. This article emphasizes their significance and their role in Indonesia’s climate change mitigation strategies. Their carbon sequestration capacity is substantial, potentially preventing significant CO2 emissions. Indonesia is committed to climate change mitigation, with its Enhanced Nationally Determined Contribution focusing on the Forest and Other Land Use (folu) sector, where mangroves are pivotal. However, optimizing this potential and involving local communities present challenges due to weak enforcement, policy conflicts, and limited community engagement. Based on a case study in South Sumatra, this study highlights the importance of involving local governments and communities in mangrove conservation efforts as a climate change mitigation measure. By applying a jurisdictional approach, especially through social-forestry schemes (e.g. Village Forests and mangrove-based ecotourism), local governments can play a crucial role in preserving mangrove ecosystems, integrating them into climate policies, and supporting community empowerment while achieving climate change mitigation goals.

AI Technology Is Revolutionizing Climate Change Mitigation: An Overview

Climate change is a global problem that has a significant impact on human health and economic well-being. Artificial intelligence (AI) has been shown to have great potential in reducing the effects of climate change. This article tries to provide a basic overview of the relationship between AI and mitigating climate change, highlighting AI's revolutionary potential in combating this pressing global issue. In particular, this article looks at how big data is essential to the success of climate action programs and how AI technologies may use these enormous databases to help develop more efficient mitigation measures for climate change and adapt to them. We have investigated novel methods for comprehending climate dynamics, maximizing renewable energy systems, enhancing climate resilience, and improving environmental justice via the use of AI technology.

Coupled heat transfers resolution by Monte Carlo in urban geometry including direct and diffuse solar irradiations

Modelling transient combined heat transfer in complex urban geometry is a key step to predict human exposure or energy consumption and to quantify the effect of climate change mitigation and adaptation measures. A difficulty lies in the possibility for a model to scale up and integrate large and complex urban morphology. We develop a probabilistic approach to solve heat transfers with the Monte Carlo method that is insensitive to the complexity of both the urban geometry and the boundary conditions. The integral formulation that includes random walks for each heat transfer mode is presented and the computation of absorbed solar irradiations at walls with the double randomization technique is detailed. Numerical validations are given through comparisons with deterministic method results for single and two-layer slabs, but also a three-dimensional thermal bridge geometry. The developed probabilistic heat transfer model is then used in a demonstration heat wave scenario where are computed: the outdoor mean radiant temperature showing the influence of trees; and the indoor average wall temperature showing the influence of solar gains through windows.

Deep point cloud regression for above-ground forest biomass estimation from airborne LiDAR

Quantifying forest biomass stocks and their dynamics is important for implementing effective climate change mitigation measures by aiding local forest management, studying processes driving af-, re-, and deforestation, and improving the accuracy of carbon accounting. Owing to the 3-dimensional nature of forest structure, remote sensing using airborne LiDAR can be used to perform these measurements of vegetation structure at large scale. Harnessing the full dimensionality of the data, we present deep learning systems predicting wood volume and above ground biomass (AGB) directly from the full LiDAR point cloud and compare results to state-of-the-art approaches operating on basic statistics of the point clouds. For this purpose, we devise different neural network architectures for point cloud regression and evaluate them on remote sensing data of areas for which AGB estimates have been obtained from field measurements in the Danish national forest inventory. Our adaptation of Minkowski convolutional neural networks for regression give the best results. The deep neural networks produce significantly more accurate wood volume, AGB, and carbon stock estimates compared to state-of-the-art approaches. In contrast to other methods, the proposed deep learning approach does not require a digital terrain model and is robust to artifacts along the boundaries of the evaluated areas, which we demonstrate for the case where trees protrude into the area from the outside. We expect this finding to have a strong impact on LiDAR-based analyses of biomass dynamics.

Assessing the Nexus between Climate Change and Public Health in Nepal: A Comprehensive Exploration of Impacts, Vulnerabilities, and Adaptive Strategies

Climate change and variability exert a global influence, affecting individuals and regions across the world. However, its impact is particularly pronounced in specific geographical areas and their inhabitants. Nepal, a globally recognized mountainous country, encompasses 18 percent of the world's mountainous terrain and spans 4.3 million km2 across eight Asian countries: Nepal, Bhutan, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, China, India, Myanmar, and Pakistan. These Asian regions are experiencing a warming trend that surpasses the global average, accompanied by a significant increase in precipitation over the past six decades, leading to heightened frequency and intensity of specific extreme events. The alterations in temperature and precipitation have already impacted and are expected to continue affecting various climate-dependent sectors such as hydrology, agriculture, biodiversity, and human health. This paper aims to document the historical and anticipated impacts of climate change on the health and well-being of Nepal's population, providing adaptation and mitigation strategies to alleviate these effects. Additionally, the study assesses the indirect impact of agriculture and other human-related issues on human health and well-being. Utilizing narrative review processes, the research concludes the outlined issues. In Nepal, climate change contributes to complex challenges, resulting in the proliferation of infectious diseases, non-communicable diseases (NCDs), malnutrition, and injuries, as evident from this review. Consequently, the prompt implementation of climate change adaptation and mitigation measures is imperative to protect the vulnerable populations residing in the country.

Net greenhouse gas balance in U.S. croplands: How can soils be part of the climate solution?

Agricultural soils play a dual role in regulating the Earth's climate by releasing or sequestering carbon dioxide (CO2 ) in soil organic carbon (SOC) and emitting non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs) such as nitrous oxide (N2 O) and methane (CH4 ). To understand how agricultural soils can play a role in climate solutions requires a comprehensive assessment of net soil GHG balance (i.e., sum of SOC-sequestered CO2 and non-CO2 GHG emissions) and the underlying controls. Herein, we used a model-data integration approach to understand and quantify how natural and anthropogenic factors have affected the magnitude and spatiotemporal variations of the net soil GHG balance in U.S. croplands during 1960-2018. Specifically, we used the dynamic land ecosystem model for regional simulations and used field observations of SOC sequestration rates and N2 O and CH4 emissions to calibrate, validate, and corroborate model simulations. Results show that U.S. agricultural soils sequestered Tg CO2 -C year-1 in SOC (at a depth of 3.5 m) during 1960-2018 and emitted Tg N2 O-N year-1 and Tg CH4 -C year-1 , respectively. Based on the GWP100 metric (global warming potential on a 100-year time horizon), the estimated national net GHG emission rate from agricultural soils was Tg CO2 -eq year-1 , with the largest contribution from N2 O emissions. The sequestered SOC offset ~28% of the climate-warming effects resulting from non-CO2 GHG emissions, and this offsetting effect increased over time. Increased nitrogen fertilizer use was the dominant factor contributing to the increase in net GHG emissions during 1960-2018, explaining ~47% of total changes. In contrast, reduced cropland area, the adoption of agricultural conservation practices (e.g., reduced tillage), and rising atmospheric CO2 levels attenuated net GHG emissions from U.S. croplands. Improving management practices to mitigate N2 O emissions represents the biggest opportunity for achieving net-zero emissions in U.S. croplands. Our study highlights the importance of concurrently quantifying SOC-sequestered CO2 and non-CO2 GHG emissions for developing effective agricultural climate change mitigation measures.

Harmonization of the agricultural policy of the Republic of Serbia with the the European Union acquis – environmental protection and impact on the position of farmers


 Agricultural policy is one of the key public policies and has a significant impact on farmers as well as on the population living in rural areas. The policy comprises various development goals and represent the starting point for the adoption of regulations that have a direct impact on agricultural producers and their lives. The paper first analyzes the current agricultural policy in Serbia. The second part of the paper is dedicated to the Common Agricultural Policy of the European Union, followed by an analysis of the level of harmonisation of the agricultural policy and regulations of the Republic of Serbia with the Common Agricultural Policy of the European Union. Bearing in mind that the Common Agricultural Policy is currently undergoing transformation and that the implementation of new measures is expected from 2023, it is analysed how this change will affect Serbia in the coming years, given that the new Agriculture Strategy is to be adopted as the current one expires in 2024. The paper specifically analyzes how measures for environmental protection and climate change will affect the lives of the rural population. Introduction and implementation of new and increasingly complex measures, such as new ways of agricultural production, soil cultivation, reduced use of pesticides and artificial fertilizers, as well as greater representation of organic production bring significant benefits to the environment and contribute to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and to climate change mitigation. Until now, farmers have been expected to change their former traditional approaches to agricultural production, among which the burning crop residues stands out as important for the environment, and in the future the greater demands will be placed on farmers, especially having in mind climate change mitigation and adaptation measures. As the paper concludes, the key role in this process must be played by the farmers themselves, who are expected to change, often traditional patterns of production and living in rural areas.

When the design of climate policy meets public acceptance: An adaptive multiplex network model

The socio-political processes that influence the acceptance of climate policies play a crucial role in shaping mitigation strategies. In this paper, we explore the interplay between social and political dynamics and their impact on climate policy support. Using a simplified model of the social and political system, we aim to uncover ways to enhance public support for climate change mitigation measures. Several factors come into play when considering policy support, including social norms, self-efficacy, social learning, and income. By examining climate mitigation policies and accounting for shifting and inherent preferences, we shed light on how individuals contribute to processes of social change. Through simulations, we find that even minimal peer pressure has a positive and significant impact on individuals' inclination towards green behaviours, regardless of whether regressive or progressive policies are implemented. Additionally, assuming uniform self-efficacy across society leads to an overestimation of society's acceptance of green policies. Our results highlight the importance of nurturing existing skills or developing new ones. Finally, our findings reveal that regional heterogeneity matters for climate policy acceptance.

Simulating the Impact of the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act on State-Level CO2 Emissions: An Integrated Assessment Model Approach

Climate change mitigation measures are often projected to reduce anthropogenic carbon dioxide concentrations. Yet, it seems there is ample evidence suggesting that we have a limited understanding of the impacts of these measures and their combinations. For example, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) enacted in the U.S. in 2022 contains significant provisions, such as the electric vehicle (EV) tax credits, to reduce CO2 emissions. However, the impact of such provisions is not fully understood across the U.S., particularly in the context of their interactions with other macroeconomic systems. In this paper, we employ an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM), the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), to estimate the future CO2 emissions in the U.S. GCAM is equipped to comprehensively characterize the interactions among different systems, e.g., energy, water, land use, and transportation. Thus, the use of GCAM-USA that has U.S. state-level resolution allows the projection of the impacts and consequences of major provisions in the IRA, i.e., EV tax credits and clean energy incentives. To compare the performance of these incentives and credits, a policy effectiveness index is used to evaluate the strength of the relationship between the achieved total CO2 emissions and the overarching emission reduction costs. Our results show that the EV tax credits as stipulated in the IRA can only marginally reduce carbon emissions across the U.S. In fact, it may lead to negative impacts in some states. However, simultaneously combining the incentives and tax credits improves performance and outcomes better than the sum of the individual effects of the policies. This demonstrates that the whole is greater than the sum of the parts in this decarbonization approach. Our findings provide insights for policymakers with a recommendation that combining EV tax credits with clean energy incentives magnifies the intended impact of emission reduction.