Mitigation Commitments Research Articles

Development of Circular Economy in the Visegrad Group of Countries

The circular economy is important in implementing EU Green Deal targets, climate change mitigation commitments, and pursuing sustainable development. A circular economy allows the reduction of waste and environmental damages linked to waste to save natural resources and mitigate climate change. The transition from linear to circular economy models provides many economic and environmental benefits and is a priority for most countries, especially developed ones. There is a need to measure and monitor the circular economy's progress. In this context, indicators can be useful tools to assess progress achieved by countries in pursuing circular economy development. The paper developed an indicators framework to measure circular economy development progress in the EU and applies the developed framework for Visegrad countries. The Visegrad Group (V4) includes four Central European countries, Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Hungary, linked by similar geographical and geopolitical situations and common history and culture. MCDM tool ARAS was applied to ranking four Visegrad countries in 2010 and 2021 based on the progress achieved in circular economy development.

How Does Polycentric Engagement Relate to Countries’ NDC Ambition and Mitigation Policy Effort?

Abstract Under the Paris Agreement, global climate governance has become decidedly more polycentric. However, it is still debated whether the turn toward greater polycentricity leads to more effectiveness in delivering public goods like climate change mitigation. This article argues that engagement in polycentric climate governance is linked to both more ambitious mitigation targets and stronger mitigation policy effort at the national level. Empirically, we analyze the extent to which countries’ mitigation ambition and policy effort are associated with state-level memberships in transnational climate governance initiatives and with sub- and nonstate actors’ memberships, while controlling for other potential explanations. We find that while polycentric engagement is not associated with higher ambition of countries’ mitigation targets, it does correlate with greater policy effort. This is particularly the case for former non–Annex I countries, that is, countries without mitigation commitments under the old Kyoto regime. We explain these synergies with a discussion of polycentric systems’ contribution to supporting knowledge exchange and learning.

Navigating the Uncertain Terrain: Venezuela’s Future Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Framework—A Systematic Review

We investigate Venezuela’s potential “futures” under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) through a systematic literature review, including systematic mapping and thematic analysis of 50 scientific articles. We categorised the SSP scenarios into two generational categories and classified the outcomes into positive, negative, and neutral futures. Under first-generation SSP scenarios, increasing poverty could be reversed, and the country’s economic growth could be stimulated by adopting unambitious climate measures. However, second-generation SSP scenarios paint a more challenging picture. They suggest that Venezuela could face heat waves, droughts, an increase in diseases, loss of biodiversity, and an increase in invasive species and pests during the remainder of the 21st century as a direct consequence of climate change. Venezuela’s geographic and topographic diversity could exacerbate these impacts of climate change. For instance, coastal areas could be at risk of sea-level rise and increased storm surges, while mountainous regions could experience more frequent and intense rainfall, leading to landslides and flash floods. The urgency of conducting additional research on the factors that could influence the severity of climate change’s impact, considering Venezuela’s geographic and topographic diversity, cannot be overstated. We also identified the critical need to explore alternative paths to move away from the current extractive development model. The potential actions in this regard could be instrumental in aligning the country with global adaptation and mitigation commitments.

Peatland restoration in Germany: A dynamic general equilibrium analysis

Drained peatland currently contributes 7.5% of Germany's total national greenhouse gas emissions. The National Peatland Protection Strategy adopted by the German government in 2022 recognizes that these emissions need to be reduced significantly to meet the country's climate change mitigation commitments. The present study employs a global dynamic computable general equilibrium model to assess the economic and greenhouse gas emission impacts of alternative agriculture-focused peatland rewetting scenarios for Germany up to 2030. In contrast to partial-analytic approaches, the global general equilibrium approach allows to take consistent account of economic ripple-on effects and carbon leakage effects triggered by peatland rewetting. The results suggest that in the medium term towards 2030 a reduction in annual emissions from agricultural peatland use by up to 45% are attainable at marginal private abatement costs between 27 and 61 Euro/tCO2e. Carbon leakage effects due to induced indirect land use change in Germany and the rest of the European Union reduce the global net emission reduction impact by 0.7 to 1.0% of the direct emission reduction. The effects on food prices remain small in all scenarios. In conclusion, a sizable reduction of Germany's land-use-related emissions is achievable at a low macroeconomic cost by moving beyond the moderate ambitions of the National Peatland Restoration Strategy.

Mixed success for carbon payments and subsidies in support of forest restoration in the neotropics

Restoration of forests in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) has the potential to contribute to international carbon mitigation targets. However, high upfront costs and variable cashflows are obstacles for many landholders. Carbon payments have been promoted as a mechanism to incentivize restoration and economists have suggested cost-sharing by third parties to reduce financial burdens of restoration. Yet empirical evidence to support this theory, based on robust, dynamic field sampling is lacking. Here we use large, long-term datasets from Panama to evaluate the financial prospects of three forest restoration methods under different cost-sharing and carbon payment designs where income is generated through timber harvests. We show some, but not all options are economically viable. Further work combining growth and survival data from field trials with more sophisticated financial analyses is essential to understanding barriers and realizing the potential of forest restoration in LMICs to help meet global carbon mitigation commitments.

Behavioral-alike model-driven for the power demand of battery swapping stations in supporting two and three-wheeled electrification in the new capital city of Indonesia

An integrated transportation system envisages (near) zero-emission for public and private vehicles toward sustainable and accessible urban mobility as a committed strategy for Indonesia’s new capital city (INCC). Electric mobility (e-mobility) is therefore aligned with the government’s climate mitigation commitment. Proposing an evidence-based solution for the refueling approach, battery swapping technology is considered due to its modularity of ‘plug and play’ (PnP) and cost-effective upfront investment, i.e., modular battery swapping point (MBSP) for two|three-wheeled e-mobility. However, due to the uncertainty and insufficient preliminary data on the number of rolled-out units, intended location, and allocation, the planning process of the supporting infrastructure in the early stages of transition is mostly hampered. Meanwhile, using common assumptions or averaging measures may lead to substantial disparities, risking the initiatives for cost-shared infrastructure spending. Therefore, constructing a framework model of a behavior-alike of MBSP is imperative. The framework has a distinct advantage in generating the time series of power demand profiles over the unknown parameters, i.e., the battery pack (BP) properties, user tendencies of fetching and filling cycles, and tailor-made intentions exploiting the predictive Monte Carlo (PMC) method. This work aims to contribute insight to stakeholders, policymakers, and operators and disseminate relevant planning research.

Keeping Promises? Democracies’ Ability to Harmonize Their International and National Climate Commitments

Abstract Since the adoption of the Paris Agreement, global emissions have put the world beyond its goals. While there are calls for increasing ambition, countries must match their current international commitments at the national level. Democracies were assumed to comply with their own international commitments, yet their ability to adopt national mitigation policies that are consistent with their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) varies. This study applies the Vertical Policy Harmonization Index to quantify the extent to which countries’ mitigation commitments are vertically harmonized in their NDCs and national policies. Using qualitative comparative analysis, I investigate the role of institutions, interests, and ideas in shaping the vertical (dis)harmony of twenty-four democracies. I find that fossil fuel dependency constrains the harmonization of mitigation commitments, even in the face of high vulnerability and low abatement costs. Moreover, the results support the previous findings of an ambiguous relationship between veto points and mitigation commitment. However, the roles of an established green party and public opinion in shaping disharmony remain unclear.

Equivalent impacts of logging and beaver activities on aboveground carbon stock loss in the southernmost forest on Earth

The conservation of forest landscapes is crucial for global climate strategies, and the forest in Tierra del Fuego, located in Patagonia, represents the southernmost example on Earth. These ecosystems are critical for Chile’s roadmap toward carbon neutrality. Unfortunately, these ecosystems have been impacted by logging and beaver activities. Currently, the precise contribution of each driver to forest cover and carbon stock loss remains insufficiently quantified, impeding effective policymaking and the implementation of strategies to safeguard and enhance carbon stocks in these ecosystems. In this study, we conducted an assessment of forest carbon stock loss resulting from both logging and beaver activities in Chilean Tierra del Fuego from 1986 to 2019. While beavers have received significant attention for their substantial contribution to forest cover loss (56.1% forest cover, ≈ 1.4 MtC), our findings suggest that logging has nearly equally contributed to carbon stock depletion (43.8% forest cover, ≈ 1.2 MtC). Consequently, the prevailing focus on beavers has obscured the ongoing logging-induced carbon stock loss. The implications of our study highlight the urgency for comprehensive consideration of both drivers in Chile’s climate strategy to fulfill the country’s mitigation commitments.

Climate change mitigation in Zimbabwe and links to sustainable development

In 2021, Zimbabwe updated its Greenhouse Gas (GHG) reduction target from a 33% reduction in per capita energy sector GHG emissions to a 40% reduction from all sectors, compared to 2030 baseline emission scenarios. This work aims to demonstrate how the actions identified in Zimbabwe's Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) can achieve this updated target, and what development benefits could occur in Zimbabwe through the implementation of these actions. The magnitude of GHG emissions in Zimbabwe are modelled historically and to 2030 to quantify GHG emission reduction potentials, and contributions to selected sustainable development goal targets, from implementation of 28 mitigation measures. The estimated ∼37 million tonnes CO2-equivalent emissions emitted by Zimbabwe in 2017 are projected to increase by 109% to ∼77 million tonnes without implementation of any mitigation measures. The mitigation measures included in the updated NDC could reduce GHG emissions by 40% in 2030 compared to the baseline, while additional measures included in other plans and strategies in Zimbabwe could achieve a further 23% reduction. Implementing Zimbabwe's NDC could also lead to substantial development benefits locally, including to public health, biodiversity, and sustainable energy use. This assessment therefore provides a clear pathway to achieve Zimbabwe's updated climate change mitigation commitment, as the target is linked to the implementation of specific, concrete mitigation actions. It provides a practical example as to how methods to assess climate mitigation and development priorities can be integrated within climate change mitigation target-setting assessments. The more widespread adoption of prospective, quantitative assessment of development benefits from climate change mitigation actions could provide further motivation for more ambitious climate change action.

Towards the first cohort of climate-neutral cities: Expected impact, current gaps, and next steps to take to establish evidence-based zero-emission urban futures

Cities are increasingly becoming critical climate actors. However, their preparedness and ambition in forging climate-neutral futures is hard to ascertain. In this study, we analyse the Expressions of Interest in the Mission on 100 Climate-Neutral and Smart Cities by 2030, an unprecedented dataset of city inputs to 374 different questions on the transition to (net) zero. We i) delineate emissions baselines, accounting methodologies, and inventories’ completeness (sectors/sources, carriers, gases), ii) analyse emission trends and cities’ capacity to deliver on their climate mitigation commitments, iii) examine the estimated magnitude and origin of residual emissions by 2030 together with the envisioned offsetting strategies, and iv) elucidate gaps, methodological deficiencies, and forms of assistance. Data suggest that if all 362 eligible cities were to reach climate neutrality, approximately 650 MtCO2eq would be removed. However, this would require at least a quadruple effort in half the time compared to current mitigation achievements. Beyond the challenge of emissions baselining, cities lack adequate data collection and monitoring systems and show little familiarity with non-technological and technological avenues to tackle harder-to-eradicate emissions. Capacity building will be key across multiple (e.g., technical, financial, operational) domains to turn ambitious mayoral commitments into factual contributions to climate mitigation.

Model emulators for the assessment of regional impacts and risks of climate change: A case study of rainfed maize production in Mexico

The collection of publicly available databases about climate change and its impacts on natural and human systems is unprecedented and ever-growing. However, the requirements of information can vary widely among users depending on their region, socioenvironmental context, and interests. Moreover, in the current era of active mitigation and adaptation policies, information needs are frequently not satisfied even by these massive and variated collections of databases. The development and use of emulators can help closing this information gap by allowing users to approximate the output from complex models and create user-defined experiments, without being technically or computational demanding on the user. Here, a simple emulator of the EPIC biophysical crop model is presented which is able to adequately reproduce the changes in rainfed maize and to create projections for user-defined scenarios. Moreover, it allows to produce risk measures that are not available with the original model. The proposed methodology is illustrated with a case study of rainfed maize production in Mexico for a reference emissions scenario (SSP370) and two user-defined international mitigation policy scenarios. These scenarios represent 1) current international mitigation commitments and 2) a scenario in which China withdraws from international mitigation efforts. Results showed that, under the reference scenario, climate change could have widespread consequences on rainfed production all over the country with decreases in yields reaching up to 80% in the southeast and northeast of the country. These impacts can be partially modulated by the moderately ambitious mitigation commitments assumed in recent international agreements if all countries comply. However, a potential withdraw of China from these efforts would significantly reduce any benefits from international mitigation. Under all scenarios, changes in productivity impose increasing risks for already vulnerable populations and considerable economic costs at the state and national levels. These results suggest the urgent need for critical planning for adaptation in the agricultural sector of the country.

Understanding the Use of Carbon Credits by Companies: A Review of the Defining Elements of Corporate Climate Claims.

Worldwide, companies are increasingly making claims about their current climate efforts and their future mitigation commitments. These claims tend to be underpinned by carbon credits issued in voluntary carbon markets to offset emissions. Corporate climate claims are largely unregulated which means that they are often (perceived to be) misleading and deceptive. As such, corporate climate claims risk undermining, rather than contributing to, global climate mitigation. This paper takes as its point of departure the proposition that a better understanding of corporate climate claims is needed to govern such claims in a manner that adequately addresses potential greenwashing risks. To that end, the paper reviews the nascent literature on corporate climate claims relying on the use of voluntary carbon credits. Drawing on the reviewed literature, three key dimensions of corporate climate claims as related to carbon credits are discussed: 1) the intended use of carbon credits: offsetting versus non-offsetting claims; 2) the framing and meaning of headline terms: net-zero versus carbon neutral claims; and 3) the status of the claim: future aspirational commitments versus stated achievements. The paper thereby offers a preliminary categorization of corporate climate claims and discusses risks associated with and governance implications for each of these categories.

Rescuing the Paris Agreement: Improving the Global Experimentalist Governance by Reclassifying Countries

The Paris Agreement design follows the Global Experimental Governance mode, which once achieved success in ozone protection. However, the implementation of the Paris Agreement encountered difficulties, as it inherited the traditional dichotomy country classification established at the 1992 Rio Summit. Still, over time, the capability and motivation in Annex I and non-Annex I countries developed so differently that incentive and constraint policies do not encourage more ambitious mitigation commitments using the previous classification. For this reason, according to a country’s capability and motivation, this research divided these countries into four categories: Leader, Reserve Force, Waverer, and Obscurity, and proposed a potential climate action roadmap for different types of countries to mobilize their internal forces by dynamically classifying a country’s character and to improve overall global climate governance.

Strengths and gaps of climate change perceptions in the Beijing metropolis

Implementing China’s climate-change mitigation and adaptation measures demands citizens’ recognition and participation. This study investigated the strengths and gaps of climate-change perceptions of Beijing’s citizens by a questionnaire survey. Responses were sought on 36 perceptions under three domains: causes, impacts, and countermeasures. The influence of underlying factors, self-rated health status and current and childhood living environments, were explored by non-parametric statistical tests. Self-rated health status strongly influenced two causes (deforestation, releasing carbon dioxide), two countermeasures (responsibility to do something to tackle climate change, officials ignored the issue of climate change), and none for impacts. Childhood city-living strongly affected the perceptions of some climate-change causes. However, childhood living environments did not affect impacts and countermeasures. A typology of residents’ perception patterns was proposed. Respondents registered perception forte, especially for the common causes. Perception disconnection was detected for the linkage between two causes: resource consumption and fossil-fuel use. Perception deficit was shown for three causes: nitrous oxide release, methane emission, and urbanization. A strong collateral perception was found between the impacts of health-related issues and extreme weather. Perception discord was established between impacts on food production and agricultural pest problems. For countermeasures, the strongest perceptions were expressed for taking personal actions, changing behavior, and supporting the government. Such responses signified altruistic personal mitigation commitments and the manifestation of civic duties. The findings could inform the formulation of climate-change public policies and public education programs to nurture a climate-resilient city.

Aggregating the Impacts of Non-State and Subnational Climate Actions: An Exploration of Methods

This paper discusses methodological assumptions to estimate the collective impact of mitigation commitments and targets of non-state and subnational entities. It serves as a supplement to the Initiative for Climate Action Transparency (ICAT) Non-State and Subnational Action Guide. The paper will facilitate users in employing methods that are suitable for their specific objectives when determining the collective impact of mitigation actions taken by cities, businesses and states. It will also promote greater transparency in reporting impact assessment results.

Integrated climate change and air pollution mitigation assessment for Togo

Togo, in west Africa, is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, but has made a negligible contribution to causing it. Togo ratified the Paris Agreement in 2017, committing to submit Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) that outline Togo's climate change mitigation commitment. Togo's capital, Lomé, as well as other areas of Togo have ambient air pollutant levels exceeding World Health Organisation guidelines for human health protection, and 91 % of Togolese households cook using solid biomass, elevating household air pollution exposure. In Togo's updated NDC, submitted in 2021, Togo acknowledges the importance and opportunity of achieving international climate change mitigation targets in ways that improve air quality and achieve health benefits for Togo's citizens. The aim of this work is to evaluate priority mitigation measures in an integrated assessment of air pollutant, Short-Lived Climate Pollutant (SLCP) and Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions to identify their effectiveness in simultaneously reducing air pollution and Togo's contribution to climate change. The mitigation assessment quantifies emissions for Togo and Grand Lomé from all major source sectors for historical years between 2010 and 2018, for a baseline projection to 2030 and for mitigation scenarios evaluating ten mitigation measures. The assessment estimates that Togo emitted ~21 million tonnes of GHG emissions in 2018, predominantly from the energy and Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use sectors. GHG emissions are projected to increase 42 % to 30 million tonnes in 2030 without implementation of mitigation policies and measures. The implementation of the ten identified priority mitigation measures could reduce GHG emissions by ~20 % in 2030 compared to the baseline, while SLCPs and air pollutants were estimated to be reduced more, with a more than 75 % reduction in black carbon emissions in 2030. This work therefore provides a clear pathway by which Togo can reduce its already small contribution to climate change while simultaneously achieving local benefits for air quality and human health in Togo and Grand Lomé.

The Paris Agreement on Climate Change: Efficiency of Mitigation Obligation

The ‘Paris Climate Treaty’ is the first MEA (Multilateral Environmental Agreement) which imposes mitigation obligations not only on developed countries but also on developing country Parties. The Agreement actually extended the mitigation obligations enshrined under the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol. It has created a universal binding obligation to take domestic actions to achieve the target of reducing emissions of GHG set out by the domestic (“bottom-up”) process. PA has recognized the best available science to carry on mitigation actions. It requires the Parties to undertake a continuous planning process to mitigate climate change impacts set out in NDC every five years. This Agreement requires a more ambitious NDC containing progression of mitigation commitment from the previous NDC. Though a ‘mandatory enforcement mechanism’ or ‘penalty for non-compliance with mitigation obligations is absent in the Agreement, the mandatory procedural obligation makes us optimistic that the target will be achieved. The information relating to mitigation actions is subject to technical expert review. For assessing the overall and collective progress towards achieving the PA’s long-term mitigation goals, the Agreement requires a “global stocktake” in 2023 and after that time in every five years. There is a “transparent, non-adversarial and non-punitive” expert-based measure to facilitate compliance with provisions containing mitigation obligations. Many Parties are committed to shifting to renewable energy and imposing a carbon tax in their NDCs to achieve their desired mitigation pledges. Many countries have started to invest in cheaper zero-carbon goods and services. When such cheaper zero-carbon goods and services capture the market, then the mitigation target will be fulfilled easily. PA is a universal consensual document. Though it is confronted with many challenges, its strong foundation and efficient mitigation obligation make us optimistic that the overall mitigation targets will be achieved and that mother earth will be safe from being “hell”. This paper shall discuss the mitigation goal and nature of the mitigation obligation under the PA and finally analyze the efficiency of the mitigation strategy. Dhaka University Law Journal, 2022, 33(1), 99-120

Role of solar power in shifting the Turkish electricity sector towards sustainability

Abstract This work covers a three-stage evaluation: cradle-to-grave life-cycle assessment (LCA) of polycrystalline silicon (pc-Si) and monocrystalline silicon (mc-Si) solar photovoltaics (PVs) as on-grid utility-scale energy options; environmental-impact distribution of pc-Si and mc-Si combinations under local conditions in Turkey; and assessment of the role of solar power in improving the environmental performance of the Turkish electricity mix. In LCA, mc-Si panels are found to have 4.47–9.16% higher environmental impacts than pc-Si panels in absolute terms. However, the higher efficiency and slower degradation rate of mc-Si panels make them have lower impacts on a kWh electricity basis. For the solar PV combination, the global-warming potential (GWP) and human-toxicity potential (HTP) results are found to be significantly lower than that of home-scale pc-Si systems (27.1–34.4 g versus 33.7–59.9 g CO2 equivalent (eq)/kWh 30.6–38.9 g versus 65.9–117 g 1–4 dichlorobenzene (g 1–4 DB) eq/kWh) operating in Turkey due to the higher capacity and efficiency of the utility-scale system. This result reveals the advantage of utilizing solar power as a centralized energy option for the country. All of the eight impacts that we evaluated reduce increasingly with increasing solar percentage in the electricity mix. The general tendency is that each percentage increase in solar electricity in the mix reduces each impact by ~1.0%. With a conservative assumption, if the solar power ratio in the mix increases to 15% by 2030, a GWP reduction of 31.3 million tons can be achieved. This corresponds to 12.7% of the greenhouse-gas mitigation commitment (246 million tons CO2 eq) made by Turkey under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. With the Turkish electricity sector being dominated by imported coal and natural gas, the obtained results reveal the potential of solar power in improving the environmental performance of the electricity mix in Turkey.

Factors influencing the development and implementation of national greenhouse gas inventory methodologies

In contrast to its Assessment Reports, less is known about the social science processes through which the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) produces methodologies for greenhouse gas emissions reporting. This limited attention is problematic, as these greenhouse gas inventories are critical components for identifying, justifying, and adjudicating national-level mitigation commitments. We begin to fill this gap by descriptively assessing, drawing on data triangulation that incorporates ecological and political analysis, the historical process for developing emissions guidelines. Our systematic descriptive efforts highlight processes and structures through which inventories might become disconnected from the latest peer-reviewed environmental science. To illustrate this disconnect, we describe the IPCC guideline process, outlining themes that may contribute to discrepancies, such as diverging logics and timeframes, discursive power, procedural lock-in, resource constraints, organizational interests, and complexity. The themes reflect challenges to greenhouse gas inventories themselves, as well as broader challenges to integrating climate change science and policy. Highlights This article provides an illustrative analysis of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s greenhouse gas inventory guideline process There is evidence for substantive discrepancies between empirical literature and these guidelines Particularly for forest soil organic carbon reporting, inventory guidelines are influenced by a multitude of political and scientific actors Explanations for these discrepancies merit further inquiry, and include institutional lock-in, political influence, discursive power, resource constraints, and world views

Untangling India’s Non-Traditional Security Challenge of Climate Change: Is Soft Power Diplomacy a Panacea for Anthropocentric Abuses?

India’s pursuit towards a sustainable future has been accompanied by the centrality of climate diplomacy while leveraging its soft power apparatus in spearheading global trust-building, capacity-building and managing global common resources. Irrespective of the post-COVID ramifications, India has remained the only G20 nation on track to meet its climate change mitigation commitments, as India continues to maintain an ambitious target of 450 gigawatts by 2030 for itself on renewable energy, adhering to cutting down carbon emissions by 33% by 2030, keeping its promise on global warming mitigation to below 2 degrees. Predicating its approach towards multilateral action on respect, peace, prosperity, dialogue and cooperation, India has marshalled multilateral action on climate change in the international arena, from being the founder of the International Solar Alliance, leading the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure, to constituting an integral component of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue’s Climate Working Group, aiming at strengthening climate actions on mitigation, adaptation, resilience, technology-building capacity and climate finance. The paper problematizes climate change in international politics, focusing on India’s soft power dimension while assessing the vulnerabilities associated with climate change, emphasizing exclusively on the evolution and the emerging multifaceted dynamics of India’s climate diplomacy.