Mississippi-Atchafalaya River Basin Research Articles

Improving ecosystem health in highly altered river basins: a generalized framework and its application to the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River Basin.

Continued large-scale public investment in declining ecosystems depends on demonstrations of "success". While the public conception of "success" often focuses on restoration to a pre-disturbance condition, the scientific community is more likely to measure success in terms of improved ecosystem health. Using a combination of literature review, workshops and expert solicitation we propose a generalized framework to improve ecosystem health in highly altered river basins by reducing ecosystem stressors, enhancing ecosystem processes and increasing ecosystem resilience. We illustrate the use of this framework in the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB) of the central United States (U.S.), by (i) identifying key stressors related to human activities, and (ii) creating a conceptual ecosystem model relating those stressors to effects on ecosystem structure and processes. As a result of our analysis, we identify a set of landscape-level indicators of ecosystem health, emphasizing leading indicators of stressor removal (e.g., reduced anthropogenic nutrient inputs), increased ecosystem function (e.g., increased water storage in the landscape) and increased resilience (e.g., changes in the percentage of perennial vegetative cover). We suggest that by including these indicators, along with lagging indicators such as direct measurements of water quality, stakeholders will be better able to assess the effectiveness of management actions. For example, if both leading and lagging indicators show improvement over time, then management actions are on track to attain desired ecosystem condition. If, however, leading indicators are not improving or even declining, then fundamental challenges to ecosystem health remain to be addressed and failure to address these will ultimately lead to declines in lagging indicators such as water quality. Although our model and indicators are specific to the MARB, we believe that the generalized framework and the process of model and indicator development will be valuable in an array of altered river basins.

Riverine nitrogen footprint of agriculture in the Mississippi–Atchafalaya River Basin: do we trade water quality for crop production?

Increasing food and biofuel demands have led to the cascading effects from cropland expansions, raised fertilizer use, to increased riverine nitrogen (N) loads. However, little is known about the current trade-off between riverine N pollution and crop production due to the lack of predictive understanding of ecological processes across the land-aquatic continuum. Here, we propose a riverine N footprint (RNF) concept to quantify how N loads change along with per unit crop production gain. Using data synthesis and a well-calibrated hydro-ecological model, we find that the RNF within the Mississippi–Atchafalaya River Basin peaked at 1.95 g N kg−1 grain during the 1990s, and then shifted from an increasing to a decreasing trend, reaching 0.65 g N kg−1 grain in the 2010s. This implies decoupled responses of crop production and N loads to key agricultural activities approximately after 2000, but this pattern varies considerably among sub-basins. Our study highlights the importance of developing a food–energy–water nexus indicator to examine the region-specific trade-offs between crop production and land-to-aquatic N loads for achieving nutrient mitigation goals while sustaining economic gains.

Structuring Nutrient Yields throughout Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin Using Machine Learning Approaches

To minimize the eutrophication pressure along the Gulf of Mexico or reduce the size of the hypoxic zone in the Gulf of Mexico, it is important to understand the underlying temporal and spatial variations and correlations in excess nutrient loads, which are strongly associated with the formation of hypoxia. This study’s objective was to reveal and visualize structures in high-dimensional datasets of nutrient yield distributions throughout the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB). For this purpose, the annual mean nutrient concentrations were collected from thirty-three US Geological Survey (USGS) water stations scattered in the upper and lower MARB from 1996 to 2020. Eight surface water quality indicators were selected to make comparisons among water stations along the MARB over the past two decades. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to comprehensively evaluate the nutrient yields across thirty-three USGS monitoring stations and identify the major contributing nutrient loads. The results showed that all samples could be analyzed using two main components, which accounted for 81.6% of the total variance. The PCA results showed that yields of orthophosphate (OP), silica (SI), nitrate–nitrites (NO3-NO2), and total suspended sediment (TSS) are major contributors to nutrient yields. It also showed that land-planted crops, density of population, domestic and industrial discharges, and precipitation are fundamental causes of excess nutrient loads in MARB. These factors are of great significance for the excess nutrient load management and pollution control of the Mississippi River. It was found that the average nutrient yields were stable within the sub-MARB area, but the large nitrogen yields in the upper MARB and the large phosphorus yields in the lower MARB were of great concern. t-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding (t-SNE) revealed interesting nonlinear and local structures in nutrient yield distributions. Clustering analysis (CA) showed the detailed development of similarities in the nutrient yield distribution. Moreover, PCA, t-SNE, and CA showed consistent clustering results. This study demonstrated that the integration of dimension reduction techniques, PCA, and t-SNE with CA techniques in machine learning are effective tools for the visualization of the structures of the correlations in high-dimensional datasets of nutrient yields and provide a comprehensive understanding of the correlations in the distributions of nutrient loads across the MARB.

An Approach for Prioritizing Natural Infrastructure Practices to Mitigate Flood and Nitrate Risks in the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River Basin

Risks from flooding and poor water quality are evident at a range of spatial scales and climate change will exacerbate these risks in the future. Natural infrastructure (NI), consisting of structural or perennial vegetation, measures that provide multiple ecosystem benefits have the potential to reduce flood and water quality risks. In this study, we intersected watershed-scale risks to flooding and nitrate export in the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB) of the central U.S. with potential locations of seven NI practices (row crop conversion, water, and sediment control basins, depressional wetlands, nitrate-removal wetlands, riparian buffers, and floodplain levees and row crop change) to prioritize where NI can be most effective for combined risk reduction at watershed scales. Spatial data from a variety of publicly-available databases were analyzed at a 10 m grid cell to locate NI practices using a geographic information system (GIS). NI practices were presented at the regional basin scale and local Iowa-Cedar watershed in eastern Iowa to show individual practice locations. A prioritization scheme was developed to show the optimal watersheds for deploying NI practices to minimize flooding and water quality risks in the MARB. Among the 84 HUC4 basins in the MARB, 28 are located in the Upper Mississippi and Ohio Rivers basins. The Wabash and Iowa-Cedar basins (HUCs 0512 and 0708, respectively) within these basins were found to rank among the uppermost quintile for nearly all practices evaluated, indicating widespread opportunities for NI implementation. Study results are a launching point from which to improve the connections between watershed scale risks and the potential use of NI practices to reduce these risks.

Corn Yield Increase Under Constant Fertilizer Did Not Reduce Nitrate Export

Highlights Corn yields increased from 1989 to 2021 in Iowa experimental plots at nitrogen fertilizer rates consistently just above current recommendations. Increased corn yields did not result in a decrease in drainage nitrate exports. Findings required long-term (>10 years) experiments and monitoring. Abstract. Aquatic problems from the export of nutrients, especially nitrate, from row crops are recalcitrant in the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River Basin and globally severe. Previous studies have proposed to reduce these problems in part by improving crop yields, particularly corn, leaving less nitrate surplus to export. Simultaneous increases in fertilizer application rates and grain yields in recent decades have made testing this notion with large-scale agricultural statistics difficult. This experiment in Iowa featured a corn-soybean rotation with corn fertilized with nitrogen at a nearly consistent rate from 1989 to 2021. Corn yields increased at a rate not statistically distinguishable from the surrounding county’s (144 vs. 148 kg ha-1 yr-1), but drainage nitrate concentration and loading remained flat overall, oscillating with precipitation. Results suggest that increasing corn yield, and thereby partial factor productivity, with standard shifts in cultivars over time, cannot alone solve the U.S. Corn Belt’s nitrate surplus problem, supporting previous recommendations for active and multi-layered conservation efforts. Five- to ten-year positive and negative sub-trends in nitrate export within the longer dataset reaffirm the importance of truly long-term experiments and monitoring to accurately assess the impacts of management. Keywords: Keywords., Corn, Loading, Nitrate, Water quality, Yield.

Harmonized nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations in the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin from 1980 to 2018

Water quality monitoring can inform policies that address pollution; however, inconsistent measurement and reporting practices render many observations incomparable across bodies of water, thereby impeding efforts to characterize spatial patterns and long-term trends in pollution. Here, we harmonized 9.2 million publicly available monitor readings from 226 distinct water monitoring authorities spanning the entirety of the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB) in the United States. We created the Standardized Nitrogen and Phosphorus Dataset (SNAPD), a novel dataset of 4.8 million standardized observations for nitrogen- and phosphorus-containing compounds from 107 thousand sites during 1980–2018. To the best of our knowledge, this dataset represents the largest record of these pollutants in a single river network where measurements can be compared across time and space. We addressed numerous well-documented issues associated with the reporting and interpretation of these water quality data, heretofore unaddressed at this scale, and our approach to water quality data processing can be applied to other nutrient compounds and regions.

Heavy Precipitation Impacts on Nitrogen Loading to the Gulf of Mexico in the 21st Century: Model Projections Under Future Climate Scenarios

AbstractWhile spatial heterogeneity of riverine nitrogen (N) loading is predominantly driven by the magnitude of basin‐wide anthropogenic N input, the temporal dynamics of N loading are closely related to the amount and timing of precipitation. However, existing studies do not disentangle the contributions of heavy precipitation versus non‐heavy precipitation predicted by future climate scenarios. Here, we explore the potential responses of N loading from the Mississippi Atchafalaya River Basin to precipitation changes using a well‐calibrated hydro‐ecological model and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate projections under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. With present agricultural production and management practices, N loading could increase up to 30% by the end of the 21st century under future climate scenarios, half of which would be driven by heavy precipitation. Particularly, the RCP8.5 scenario, in which heavy precipitation and drought events become more frequent, would increase N loading disproportionately to projected increases in river discharge. N loading in spring would contribute 41% and 51% of annual N loading increase under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, most of which is related to higher N yield due to increases in heavy precipitation. Anthropogenic N inputs would be increasingly susceptible to leaching loss in the Midwest and the Mississippi Alluvial Plain regions. Our results imply that future climate change alone, including more frequent and intense precipitation extremes, would increase N loading and intensify the eutrophication of the Gulf of Mexico over this coming century. More effective nutrient management interventions are needed to reverse this trend.

An Approach for Prioritizing Natural Infrastructure Practices to Mitigate Flood and Nitrate Risks in the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River Basin

An Approach for Prioritizing Natural Infrastructure Practices to Mitigate Flood and Nitrate Risks in the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River Basin

Stacked conservation practices reduce nitrogen loss: A paired watershed study

Combinations of best management practices (BMPs) are needed to achieve nutrient reduction goals in the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB), but field results are crucial to encourage stacked adoption of BMPs. A paired catchment-scale study (2015–18) was done to assess the impact of (i) BMPs, (ii) precipitation patterns, and (iii) seasonality on nitrogen (N) export. Flow-weighted samples were collected and analyzed for total ammonia nitrogen (TAN), nitrate (NO3–N), and total nitrogen (TN). Catchments Low-BMP 11 and High-BMP 12 had 27.6% and 87.6% areal coverage of BMPs, respectively. No significant difference (p > 0.05) in TAN concentrations was found between Low-BMP 11 (0.023 mg L−1) and High-BMP 12 (0.020 mg L−1). However, NO3–N and TN concentrations were significantly higher (p < 0.05) at Low-BMP 11 (NO3–N: 26.0 mg L−1, TN: 28.7 mg L−1) than at High-BMP 12 (NO3–N: 8.8 mg L−1, TN: 9.2 mg L−1). Two precipitation factors that affected N export patterns were observed. First, N flushing could continue for several years after a drought as elevated NO3–N concentrations were observed in 2015 (i.e., two years after the 2011–2013 drought). Second, higher annual N export was observed when more precipitation occurred during the pre-planting or early-growing season versus later periods. For both catchments, the highest 50% of flows were responsible for majority of the NO3–N export. We estimated that 33–37%, 61–62%, and 82–85% of the NO3–N loads occurred in the 90th, 75th, and 50th flow percentiles, respectively. As demonstrated in High-BMP 12, stacked BMP application effectively lowered NO3–N and TN loads by 60.3% and 59.1%, respectively, relative to Low-BMP 11. Although 27.6% BMP coverage area in Low-BMP 11 was considered low for this study, this coverage area is higher than many other parts of the MARB. This research highlights the importance of joint efforts between landowners in a watershed to meet downstream water quality goals.

Nitrogen and Phosphorus Sources and Delivery from the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin: An Update Using 2012 SPARROW Models

AbstractNitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) inputs throughout the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB) have been linked to the Gulf of Mexico hypoxia and water‐quality problems throughout the MARB. To describe N and P loading throughout the MARB, SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) models were previously developed based on nutrient inputs and management similar to 1992 and 2002. In this study, refined SPARROW models were developed with higher resolution basin delineation, updated (2012) source inputs, improved calibration (load) targets, and additional statistical techniques than used in the previous SPARROW models. Based on the refined models, consistent with past models, N and P loads/yields were the highest from the central part of the MARB (Corn Belt) and along the Mississippi River. Agricultural activities remained the most important N and P source, but more so for N because its input, which could now be distinguished from atmospheric deposition, could be estimated. Natural loss of P from geologic material throughout the MARB was an important source, contributing about 23% of the total P from the MARB, and resulted in specific areas, such as Kentucky and Tennessee, being larger sources of P than previously estimated. This information can help managers decide where efforts will have the largest effects (highest ranked areas) on reducing nutrient loading to the Gulf hypoxia and what are the most important sources of N and P in these areas.

Increased extreme precipitation challenges nitrogen load management to the Gulf of Mexico

Although the hypoxia formation in the Gulf of Mexico is predominantly driven by increased riverine nitrogen (N) export from the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River basin, it remains unclear how hydroclimate extremes affect downstream N loads. Using a process-based hydro-ecological model, we reveal that over 60% of the land area of the Basin has experienced increasing extreme precipitation since 2000, and this area yields over 80% of N leaching loss across the region. Despite occurring in ~9 days year−1, extreme precipitation events contribute ~1/3 of annual precipitation, and ~1/3 of total N yield on average. Both USGS monitoring and our modeling estimates demonstrate an approximately 30% higher annual N load in the years with extreme river flow than the long-term median. Our model suggests that N load could be reduced by up to 16% merely by modifying fertilizer application timing but increasing contribution of extreme precipitation is shown to diminish this potential.

Modeling Spatiotemporal Patterns of Ecosystem Metabolism and Organic Carbon Dynamics Affecting Hypoxia on the Louisiana Continental Shelf.

The hypoxic zone on the Louisiana Continental Shelf (LCS) forms each summer due to nutrient enhanced primary production and seasonal stratification associated with freshwater discharges from the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB). Recent field studies have identified highly productive shallow nearshore waters as an important component of shelf-wide carbon production contributing to hypoxia formation. In this study we present results from a three-dimensional hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model named CGEM (Coastal Generalized Ecosystem Model) applied to quantify the spatial and temporal patterns of hypoxia, carbon production, respiration, and transport between nearshore and middle shelf regions where hypoxia is most prevalent. We first demonstrate that our simulations successfully reproduced spatial and temporal patterns of carbon production, respiration, and bottom-water oxygen gradients compared to field observations. We then used interannual simulations to identify transport of particulate organic carbon (POC) from nearshore areas where riverine organic matter and phytoplankton carbon production are greatest. The spatial disconnect between carbon production and respiration in our simulations was driven by westward and offshore POC flux, a pattern that supported heterotrophic respiration on the middle shelf where hypoxia is frequently observed. These results validate the importance of offshore carbon flux to hypoxia formation, particularly on the west shelf where hypoxic conditions are more variable.

Statistical Analysis of Nutrient Loads from the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB) to the Gulf of Mexico

This study investigated the annual and seasonal variations in nutrient loads (NO2− + NO3− and orthophosphate) delivered to the Gulf of Mexico from the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB) and examined the water quality variations. The results indicate that (1) annually, the mean NO2− + NO3− and orthophosphate loads showed a steady increase during 1996–1999, a persistent level during 2000–2007, and a moderate increase during 2008–2016; (2) seasonally, NO2− + NO3− and orthophosphate in MARB in spring and summer were higher than those in autumn and winter. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) identified highly significant differences among seasonal loads; and (3) the median value of NO2− + NO3− in normal weather conditions were higher than that during and right after the hurricanes, while the median value of orthophosphate loads in normal weather conditions was higher than that during the hurricanes, but higher than that right after hurricanes. The two-sample t-test indicates a significant difference (p &lt; 0.046) in orthophosphate loads before and after Hurricane Katrina. Moreover, it is found that there is a significant (p &lt; 0.01) increase in nutrient loads during normal weather conditions. The results indicate that hurricane seasons can significantly influence the nutrient loads from the MARB to the Gulf of Mexico.

Time-Evolving, Spatially Explicit Forecasts of the Northern Gulf of Mexico Hypoxic Zone.

The Mississippi-Atchafalaya River Basin delivers large amounts of freshwater and nutrients to the northern Gulf of Mexico promoting the development of a large hypoxic zone every summer. Statistical and semiempirical models have long been used to provide seasonal forecasts of the mid-summer hypoxic extent using historic time series of spring nutrient load and mid-summer hypoxic extent. These forecasts consist of a scalar estimate of the hypoxic area with uncertainty but do not include spatial distributions or temporal evolution of hypoxic conditions. Three-dimensional (3D) circulation-biogeochemical models of the coastal ocean simulate the temporal evolution of hypoxia in a spatially explicit manner but have not yet been used for seasonal hypoxia forecasting. Here, we present a hybrid method for seasonal, spatially explicit, time-evolving forecasts of the hypoxic zone that combines statistical forecasting with information from a 3D biogeochemical model. The hybrid method uses spring nitrate load and a multiyear (1985-2018) 3D hindcast simulation to produce a seasonal forecast. Validation shows that the method explains up to 76% of the observed year-to-year variability in the hypoxic area. The forecasts suggest that the maximum seasonal extent of hypoxia is reached, on average, on August 13, 2 weeks after the completion of the annual cruise. An analysis of month-to-month variations in hypoxia forecasts due to variability in wind speed and freshwater discharge allows estimates of weather-related uncertainties in the forecast.

Comment on “Suspended-sediment concentrations and loads in the lower Mississippi and Atchafalaya Rivers decreased by half between 1980 and 2015” by Scott V. Mize, Jennifer C. Murphy, Timothy H. Diehl, and Dennis K. Demcheck, Journal of Hydrology 564 (2018) 1–11

The author read with much interest the publication by Mize et al. (2018) on the decrease in suspended-sediment concentrations and loads in the lower Mississippi and Atchafalaya Rivers between 1980 and 2015. Researchers interested in sediment dynamics in the lower Mississippi and Atchafalaya Rivers also should be aware that sediment data previously reported for the lower Mississippi-Atchafalaya River Basin by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) were affected by a systematic error in the fines fraction (particle sizes less than 0.063 millimeter) of the suspended-sediment concentration. This error affected results reported from October 1973 through February 2015 for two sites on the main stem of the Mississippi River, three sites on the Atchafalaya River, one site on the Old River Outflow Channel, and one site on the Red River. The USGS and USACE identified the error and have revised the results for samples collected from October 1989 through February 2015, as reported by Norton et al. (2019a) and Norton et al. (2019b). The significant conclusions of Mize et al. (2018) and sediment loads modeled using the Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS) method were unaffected by the systematic error because the models used data from unaffected sites; however, the background information provided in tables 1 and 2 of Mize et al. (2018) included references to several previous studies that contained results affected by the error. This comment paper identifies which references in Mize et al. (2018) were affected by the error and alerts readers to implications of the data revision.

Some Challenges in Hydrologic Model Calibration for Large-Scale Studies: A Case Study of SWAT Model Application to Mississippi-Atchafalaya River Basin

This study is a part of the Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP) aimed to quantify the environmental and economic benefits of conservation practices implemented in the cultivated cropland throughout the United States. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model under the Hydrologic United Modeling of the United States (HUMUS) framework was used in the study. An automated flow calibration procedure was developed and used to calibrate runoff for each 8-digit watershed (within 20% of calibration target) and the partitioning of runoff into surface and sub-surface flow components (within 10% of calibration target). Streamflow was validated at selected gauging stations along major rivers within the river basin with a target R2 of &gt;0.6 and Nash and Sutcliffe Efficiency of &gt;0.5. The study area covered the entire Mississippi and Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB). Based on the results obtained, our analysis pointed out multiple challenges to calibration such as: (1) availability of good quality data, (2) accounting for multiple reservoirs within a sub-watershed, (3) inadequate accounting of elevation and slopes in mountainous regions, (4) poor representation of carrying capacity of channels, (5) inadequate capturing of the irrigation return flows, (6) inadequate representation of vegetative cover, and (7) poor representation of water abstractions (both surface and groundwater). Additional outstanding challenges to large-scale hydrologic model calibration were the coarse spatial scale of soils, land cover, and topography.

Can upstream biofuel production increase the flow of downstream ecosystem goods and services?

Advanced biomass feedstocks tend to provide more non-fuel ecosystem goods and services (ES) than 1st-generation alternatives. We explore the idea that payment for non-fuel ES could facilitate market penetration of advanced biofuels by closing the profitability gap. As a specific example, we discuss the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB), where 1st-generation bioenergy feedstocks (e.g., corn-grain) have been integrated into the agricultural landscape. Downstream, the MARB drains to the Gulf of Mexico, where the most-valuable fishery in the US is impacted by annual formation of a large hypoxic “Dead zone.” We suggest that advanced biomass production systems in the MARB can increase and stabilize the provision of ES derived from the coastal and marine ecosystems of the Gulf-of-Mexico. Upstream, we suggest that choosing feedstocks based on their resistance or resilience to disturbance (e.g., perennials, diverse feedstocks) can increase reliability in ES provision over time. Direct feedbacks to incentivize producers of advanced feedstocks are currently lacking. Perhaps a shift from first-generation biofuels to perennial-based fuels and other advanced bioenergy systems (e.g., algal diesel, biogas from animal wastes) can be encouraged by bringing downstream environmental externalities into the market for upstream producers. In future, we can create such feedbacks through payments for ES, but significant research is needed to pave the way.

Assessing the potential to decrease the Gulf of Mexico hypoxic zone with Midwest US perennial cellulosic feedstock production

AbstractThe goal of this research was to determine the changes in streamflow, dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) leaching and export to the Gulf of Mexico associated with a range of large‐scale dedicated perennial cellulosic bioenergy production scenarios within in the Mississippi–Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB). To achieve this goal, we used Agro‐IBIS, a vegetation model capable of simulating the biogeochemistry of row crops, miscanthus and switchgrass, coupled with THMB, a hydrology model capable of simulating streamflow and DIN export. Simulations were conducted at varying fertilizer application rates (0–200 kg N ha−1) and fractional replacement (5–25%) of current row crops with miscanthus or switchgrass across the MARB. The analysis also includes two scenarios where miscanthus and switchgrass (MRX and MRS, respectively) each replace the ca. 40% of maize production currently devoted to ethanol. Across the scenarios, there were minor reductions in runoff and streamflow throughout the MARB, with the largest differences (ca. 6%) occurring for miscanthus at the highest fractional replacement scenarios in drier portions of the region. However, differences in total MARB discharge at the basin outlet were less than 1.5% even in the MRX scenario. Reductions in DIN export were much larger on a percentage basis than reductions in runoff, with the highest replacement scenarios decreasing long‐term mean DIN export by ca. 15% and 20% for switchgrass and miscanthus, respectively. Fertilization scenarios show that significant reductions in DIN leaching are possible even with application rates of 100 and 150 kg N ha−1 for switchgrass and miscanthus, respectively. These results indicate that, given targeted management strategies, there is potential for miscanthus and switchgrass to provide key ecosystem services by reducing the export of DIN, while avoiding hydrologic impacts of reduced streamflow.

Prioritizing conservation for the reduction of Gulf hypoxia using an environmental performance index

The annual growth of hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico is largely attributed to agricultural nutrient loadings that originate from the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB). To effectively target conservation efforts throughout the entire MARB in order to reduce Gulf hypoxia, strategies to rank areas according to their impact on both agricultural production and ecosystem services are extremely important. In this paper, we utilize an Environmental Performance Index (EPI) to rank regions within the MARB according to their environmental performance, that is, their ability to produce agricultural outputs while minimizing nutrient loadings to the Gulf of Mexico. We compare our index rankings to previously used rankings of delivered yields alone and find the spatial distribution of rankings changes considerably when accounting for agricultural productivity. For example, the Corn Belt regions of central Iowa and northern Illinois no longer make up the lowest performing regions of the MARB after accounting for their high levels of agricultural production. Instead, regions along the Missouri river including central Missouri, western Iowa, and southeastern South Dakota as well as areas near the Ohio river including southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and southern Ohio now count among the lowest performing regions using the EPI ranking scheme. We suggest that incorporation of economic production value into large-scale prioritization of agricultural conservation within the MARB is essential to effectively reduce Gulf hypoxia while maintaining food security from efficient farm production.

Cost-effective targeting of conservation investments to reduce the northern Gulf of Mexico hypoxic zone.

A seasonally occurring summer hypoxic (low oxygen) zone in the northern Gulf of Mexico is the second largest in the world. Reductions in nutrients from agricultural cropland in its watershed are needed to reduce the hypoxic zone size to the national policy goal of 5,000 km(2) (as a 5-y running average) set by the national Gulf of Mexico Task Force's Action Plan. We develop an integrated assessment model linking the water quality effects of cropland conservation investment decisions on the more than 550 agricultural subwatersheds that deliver nutrients into the Gulf with a hypoxic zone model. We use this integrated assessment model to identify the most cost-effective subwatersheds to target for cropland conservation investments. We consider targeting of the location (which subwatersheds to treat) and the extent of conservation investment to undertake (how much cropland within a subwatershed to treat). We use process models to simulate the dynamics of the effects of cropland conservation investments on nutrient delivery to the Gulf and use an evolutionary algorithm to solve the optimization problem. Model results suggest that by targeting cropland conservation investments to the most cost-effective location and extent of coverage, the Action Plan goal of 5,000 km(2) can be achieved at a cost of $2.7 billion annually. A large set of cost-hypoxia tradeoffs is developed, ranging from the baseline to the nontargeted adoption of the most aggressive cropland conservation investments in all subwatersheds (estimated to reduce the hypoxic zone to less than 3,000 km(2) at a cost of $5.6 billion annually).