Missed Tuberculosis Cases Research Articles

Postmortem for Intensified Missed Tuberculosis Case Finding in High Human Immunodeficiency Virus and Tuberculosis-burdened Settings in Sub-Saharan Africa among Adults’ Population: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Tuberculosis (TB) is the leading infectious cause of mortality in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA); the high prevalence of TB in this region is due to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-coinfection. Despite the advent of modalities to diagnose TB, undiagnosed TB-related deaths among HIV-infected patients remain significantly high. This systematic review aims at characterizing missed TB cases from postmortem studies. This review informs on the burden of TB missed diagnosis and highlights the need of improving TB case-finding strategies, especially among the high-risk groups and early TB therapy initiation to keeping in with the World Health Organization’s end TB strategy. We searched PubMed, Cochrane, Web of Science, and African journals online for studies that looked into missed TB cases following postmortem using the following key terms: postmortem, TB diagnosis, and HIV; we included cross-sectional and cohorts from 1980 in the English language that were carried out in SSA among adults’ population. Authors used the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses guidelines for reporting, the quality of the included studies was assessed using the Newcastle–Ottawa Scale for observational studies, and STATA 17.0 software was used for analysis. This study was registered in the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews with registration number CRD42024507515. The combined prevalence of postmortem missed TB diagnosis among the 6025 participants was 27.13% (95% confidence interval [CI] =14.52–41.89), with a high level of heterogeneity at 98.65% (P < 0.001). The prevalence varied significantly across the included studies, ranging from 1.21% (95% CI = 0.93–1.59) in the general population to 66.67% (95% CI = 50.98–79.37) in people living with HIV (PLWHIV). This current literature suggests that SSA is a region with a high prevalence of missed TB cases but with significant variations between countries. In addition, this study confirms a high number of missed TB infections within the PLWHIV. These results highlight the immediate need for targeted screening and diagnosis strategies and relevant policies.

Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra-Trace Call Results and Pathways for TB Treatment

Globally Tuberculosis (TB) and RR/MDR TB are among predominant public health problems and major cause of morbidity and mortality specially across many Asian and African countries. High number of missing TB cases, early detection of TB and early Drug Susceptibility Testing (DST) based appropriate treatment initiation also remains a challenge in many low to high burden TB countries.

Study of rapid detection of Mycobacterium Tuberculosis through GeneXpert MTB/RIF assay from acid fast bacilli smear-negative specimens in a Tertiary Care Hospital, Biratnagar Nepal

Introduction: Tuberculosis (TB) is an important public health concern around the world. It is well known that acid-fast bacilli (AFB) smear-negative TB cases are a major source of spreading TB to others when left untreated.
 Objectives: Our study aim to detect Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) in AFB smear-negative samples through GeneXpert MTB/RIF assay and also to evaluate the drug resistance patterns towards Mycobacterium tuberculosis in hospitals.Methodology: This descriptive cross-sectional study was conducted among smear-negative presumptive TB patients at a tertiary care center with effect from September 2022 to September 2023 after approval from the Institutional Review Committee of the college. A convenience sampling method was used.
 Results: Out of 653 smear-negative samples, 71 (10.9%) were positive for TB and 17 (2.6%) were rifampicin resistance cases detected by GeneXpert MTB/RIF assay. The cases of tuberculosis were more in age groups between 46->60 years and least in 17-30 years of age. Pulmonary samples yielded a higher number of MTB 66 (92.95%) as compared to extra-pulmonary samples 5 (7.04%). There is an almost equal proportion of mycobacterium infection in males 37(52.11%) and females 34(47.88%). All the rifampicin resistance cases detected in our study were from pulmonary samples.
 Conclusion: Our study shows that the sensitivity of GeneXpert MTB/RIF assay is higher than AFB smear microscopy. We are missing actual TB cases while using AFB smear microscopy only. Hence the GeneXpert MTB/RIF assay is important for the rapid detection of MTB in smear-negative as well as smear-positive drug resistance MTB cases.

A comparative analysis of two national tuberculosis reporting systems and their impact on tuberculosis case notification in Uganda.

Before 2018, the use of parallel tuberculosis (TB) reporting systems was resource intensive with duplication of efforts and hence the need to select one that contributed to better TB case notification at the National TB and Leprosy Program (NLTP) in Uganda. We sought to analyse the difference in reporting rates between the two systems in order to improve NTLP TB case notification rates, logistics management, and planning for better health service delivery initiatives. We conducted a comparative study to assess TB case notification between the web-based DHIS2 and the district TB supervisor-led health management information system between January 2016 to December 2017. We used Poisson regression analysis to assess the statistical differences in reporting rates between the two reporting systems. The association between TB case notification and the type of reporting system was statistically significant (Prob > chi2 = 0.0000). The Incident Rate Ratio (IRR) for the web-enabled DHIS2 system versus the district TB supervisor-led health management information system was 1.106625. The web-based integrated DHIS2 system was more effective in reporting missing TB cases. It presents an opportunity for better planning and allocation of resources for improved service delivery in a low-income setting.

Active Tuberculosis Screening via a Mobile Health App in Myanmar: Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Evaluation.

A mobile app that calculates a tuberculosis (TB) risk score based on individual social and pathological characteristics has been shown to be a better predictor of the risk of contracting TB than conventionally used TB signs and symptoms (TBSS) in Myanmar, where the TB burden is high. Its cost-effectiveness, however, has not yet been assessed. This study aimed to determine the incremental costs of this mobile app and of chest x-rays (CXRs) in averting disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) among missed cases of active TB in the population being screened. Elements of incremental costs and effectiveness of 3 initial TB screening strategies were examined, including TBSS followed by CXR, the mobile app followed by CXR, and universal CXR. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER; ie, the additional cost for each additional DALY averted) was compared to TBSS screening. Based on the latest 2020 gross domestic product (GDP) per capita of Myanmar (US $1477.50), the ICER was compared to willingness-to-pay (WTP) thresholds of 1, 2, and 3 times the GDP per capita. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was conducted with a Monte Carlo simulation to compute the levels of probability that the ICER for each strategy was below each WTP threshold. For each 100,000 population, the incremental cost compared to TBSS of active TB screening was US $345,942 for the mobile app and US $1,810,712 for universal CXR. The incremental effectiveness was 325 DALYs averted for the mobile app and 576 DALYs averted for universal CXR. For the mobile app, the estimated ICER was US $1064 (72% of GDP per capita) per 1 DALY averted. Furthermore, 100% of the simulated values were below an additional cost of 1 times the GDP per capita for 1 additional DALY averted. The universal CXR strategy has an estimated ICER of US $3143 (2.1 times the GDP per capita) per 1 DALY averted and an additional 77.2% DALYs averted compared to the app (ie, 576 - 325 / 325 DALYs); however, 0.5% of the simulated values were higher than an additional expenditure of 3 times the GDP per capita. Based on the status of the economy in 2020, the mobile app strategy is affordable for Myanmar. The universal CXR strategy, although it could prevent an additional 77% of DALYs, is probably unaffordable. Compared to the TBSS strategy, the mobile app system based on social and pathological characteristics of TB has potential as a TB screening tool to identify missing TB cases and to reduce TB morbidity and mortality, thereby helping to achieve the global goal of "End TB" in resource-limited settings with a high TB burden.

Missed Tuberculosis Investigations and Associated Factors in Patients with Symptoms Indicative of Tuberculosis at Public Health Institutions in Northwest Ethiopia: The Application of a Negative Binomial Model

BackgroundTuberculosis (TB) remains one of the top health problems in Ethiopia, and over one-third of estimated TB cases remain undetected. This study examined the magnitude and factors of missed opportunities for TB investigation at public health facilities in Northwest Ethiopia.MethodsA facility-based cross-sectional study was conducted among 412 adult patients with TB symptoms from 34 randomly selected public health facilities. Data on socio-demographics, TB symptoms, and clinical status were collected by an exit interview. A patient was considered missed for TB investigation if he/she had at least one symptom suggestive of TB but did not receive a sputum smear and/or x-ray evaluation to rule out TB. We computed descriptive and analytical statistics using SPSS version 26. A negative binomial regression analysis was used to identify factors associated with missed opportunities for TB investigation. Statistical significance was determined at a p-value less than 0.05.ResultsA total of 412 presumptive TB patients, 235 (57%) females and 247 (60%) rural dwellers were interviewed. The mean age of respondents was 35 ± 8 years and 228 (55.3%) were from health centers. Over two-thirds, 284 (69%) were new patients, 62 (15%) were HIV positive and 78 (19%) had diabetes mellitus (DM). Fifty patients with symptoms suggestive of TB did not receive sputum evaluation services. Inability to read and write, having DM, having normal body mass index and facility type they visited were significant factors to missing opportunities to get TB investigations.ConclusionA significant number of patients with symptoms suggestive of TB were missed for sputum evaluation to rule out TB. Education level, comorbidity, nutritional status and type of facility patients attended were factors of missing opportunities for TB investigation. Thus, improving quality of TB diagnosis, screening TB among all types of patients, and paying attention to screen illiterate people are crucial to avoid missing potential TB cases.

C-Reactive Protein as a Triage Test in Guiding Who Should Get a Confirmatory Test for Pulmonary Tuberculosis Diagnosis among Adults: A Case-Control Proof-of-Concept Study from Urban Tanzania

Background: The current screening tools for tuberculosis (TB) are inadequate resulting in insufficient TB case detection and continued community transmission of TB. As the world is geared into finding missing TB cases, new strategies are called for to aid in rapid identification of TB cases. This study aimed to evaluate the role C-reactive protein (CRP) in triaging patients to get a definitive test for active pulmonary TB diagnosis in urban Tanzania. Methods: A case-control study was conducted among pulmonary TB (PTB) patients and contacts without active PTB. The diagnosis of PTB was performed using GeneXpert MTB/RIF assay and culture. Blood was collected from cases and controls for measuring CRP levels during recruitment. We compared socio-demographic characteristics, clinical and laboratory parameters obtained during recruitment and performed diagnostic accuracy analyses for CRP. Results: Out of all 193 study participants who were involved in final analysis, 147 (76.2%) were males. Pulmonary TB cases had significantly lower median BMI than controls (median 17.4 kg/m2 [IQR: 15.8 - 19.2 kg/m2] vs., 24.9 kg/m2 [IQR: 22.1 - 28.5 kg/m2), p i.e., 13.33% vs., 11.7%, p = 0.48. CRP was significantly higher in PTB cases vs., controls (median 67.8 mg/L, [IQR: 36.5 - 116.9 mg/L] vs., 1.55 mg/L, [IQR: 0.59 - 6.0 mg/L], p = 0.003). Furthermore, CRP at cut-off ≥10 mg/L was associated with best combination of sensitivity, specificity and area under the curve of 89.9%, 95% CI: 82.2 - 95.0, 80.9%, CI: 71.4 - 88.2 and 0.85, 95% CI: 0.80 - 0.90 respectively. A multivariate logistic regression model adjusted for fever, night sweats and body mass index showed that CRP above 10 mg/L was significantly associated with PTB, aOR 5.2, 95% CI 1.2 - 22.8. Conclusions: CRP at cut-off ≥10 mg/L can be used to screen pulmonary TB. These findings can be used to improve TB screening algorithm by incorporating CRP in combination with TB symptoms to identify patients who need further confirmatory TB tests. However, additional prospective studies are required to support our findings and contribute into policy recommendations on use of CRP in a screening algorithm for pulmonary TB.

Public-Private Mix Models of Tuberculosis Care in Pakistan: A High-Burden Country Perspective.

Introduction: Pakistan ranks fifth in the globally estimated burden of tuberculosis (TB) case incidence. Annually, a gap of 241,688 patients with TB exists between estimated TB incidence and actual TB case notification in Pakistan. These undetected/missed TB cases initiate TB care from providers in the private healthcare system who are less motivated to notify patients to the national database that leads to significant underdetection of actual TB cases in the Pakistani community. To engage these private providers in reaching out to missing TB cases, a national implementation trial of the Public–Private Mix (PPM) model was cohesively launched by National TB Control Program (NTP) Pakistan in 2014. The study aims to assess the implementation, contribution, and relative treatment outcomes of cohesively implemented PPM model in comparison to the non-PPM model.Methods: A retrospective record review of all forms (new and relapse) patients with TB notified from July 2015 to June 2016 was conducted both for PPM- and non-PPM models.Results: The PPM model was implemented in 92 districts in total through four different approaches and contributed 25% (81,016 TB cases) to the national TB case notification. The PPM and non-PPM case notification showed a strong statistical difference in proportions among compared variables related to gender (p < 0.001), age group (p < 0.000), and province (p < 0.000). Among PPM approaches, general practitioners and non-governmental-organization facilities achieve a treatment success of 94–95%; private hospitals achieve 82% success, whereas Parastatals are unable to follow more than half of their notified TB cases.Discussion: The PPM model findings in Pakistan are considerably consistent with countries that have prioritized PPM for an increasing trend in the TB case notification to their national TB control programs. Different PPM approaches need to be scaled up in terms of PPM implemented districts, PPM coverage, PPM coverage efficiency, and PPM coverage outcome in the Pakistani healthcare system in the future.

Additional Yield of Active Case Finding Through House Hold Survey in Selected District of Kabul, Afghanistan, 2018

Every year, 10.4 million people get sick with Tuberculosis (TB) and 40 percent of them do not receive treatment care - they are “missed” to identify by the health systems. Missing TB cases is major challenge in fighting the disease; pose a serious threat to global health security. As per World Health organization estimation, in 2018, Afghanistan missed 27 percent TB case notification. Thus we conducted an active case finding through house hold survey from June – November, 2018 in Kabul city, districts of Afghanistan.&#x0D; This descriptive cross sectional study included all the residence of 21 sub-districts in Kabul City Afghanistan. After obtaining written consent, data was collected using a structured questionnaire from all presumptive TB cases. Sputum was collected from eligible participants and tested for AFB, Gene-Xpart and Chest X-ray was done. Standard test algorithm and case categorization was done according to WHO recommendations. Descriptive analysis of demographic, clinical and laboratory data was done.&#x0D; A total of 22,596 participants were included and among them 6740 were eligible. Among them 1614(24.3%) individuals were screened positive to have presumptive TB and 105 (6.5%) had laboratory confirmed TB. Thus the case notification rate was 465 in 100,000 populations. Among the presumptive TB cases, mean age was 38.6 + 18.5 years; 74% were female; 72% were housewives/unemployed; 2.6% were smokers.&#x0D; The case notification rate and the point prevalence showed increase numbers than the actual reports by the Afghanistan National TB program, which signifies the program was missing significant numbers of TB cases. Hence active TB case finding might be an effective approach in terms of case notification in Afghanistan. We recommend extending active community TB surveillance of the country.

The prevalence of pulmonary tuberculosis among miners from the Karonga, Rumphi, Kasungu and Lilongwe Districts of Malawi in 2019.

Miners in sub-Saharan Africa have a greater risk of tuberculosis (TB) than any other working population in the world. In spite of the presence of large and vulnerable population of miners in Malawi, no previous study has aimed to assess the burden of TB among these miners. This study aimed to determine the prevalence of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) and health-seeking behaviour (HSB) in a population of miners in Malawi, and a range of associated factors. Our goal was to develop a method to identify missing cases of TB. We conducted a cross-sectional study in the Karonga, Rumphi, Kasungu and Lilongwe districts of Malawi in 2019. We calculated frequencies, proportions, odds ratios (ORs) and their 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs), and used the chi-square test in STATA version15.1 to investigate the burden and magnitude of PTB in the mining sector. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression models were also fitted for PTB and HSB. Of the 2400 miners approached, we were able to interview 2013 (84%). Of these, 1435 (71%) were males, 1438 (71%) had known HIV status and 272 (14%) had PTB. Multivariate analysis showed that the miners performing informal mining were 50% more likely to develop PTB compared with those in formal mining (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]=1.50, 95% CI: 1.10-2.05, P=0.01). A total of 459 (23% of 2013) miners had presumptive TB. Of these, 120 (26%) sought health care; 80% sought health care at health facilities. Multivariate analysis also showed that miners who experienced night sweats were less likely to seek health care compared with those without night sweats (AOR=0.52, 95% CI: 0.30-0.90, P=0.02). The prevalence of PTB was higher among miners than in the general population. Consequently, targeted TB screening programmes for miners may represent a suitable strategy to adopt if we are to end TB by 2030. Poor health-seeking behaviours among miners is worrisome and further qualitative research is necessary to understand the barriers to accessing health care in these settings.

Engaging Community Pharmacies in Early Detection of Missing Tuberculosis Patients through Public-Private Mix Intervention in Pakistan.

Globally, Pakistan ranks fifth in terms of missing tuberculosis (TB) patients' burden. Missed TB cases are either undiagnosed or diagnosed but not notified to the national TB database. Public-private mix interventions are contributing significantly to the case detection, diagnosis, and treatment of TB in Pakistan. However, it is estimated that many cases of infected TB patients go undetected. It is likely that these "undiagnosed" active TB cases seek treatment from community pharmacies, among other venues. This study aimed at assessing the feasibility of community pharmacy-based TB case detection. Case detection protocol implementation in three Pakistani districts in a nonrandom selection of pharmacies was followed by a review of routinely maintained prospective records of patients referred from these private community pharmacies to general practitioner (GP) clinics. The study engaged 500 community pharmacies for referring presumptive TB patients to GP clinics. In total, 85% of the engaged pharmacies remained active in providing referrals during the study period. The community pharmacy-referral network achieved an annual referral rate of 3,025 presumptive TB patients and identified 547 active TB cases for the period January-December 2017. Every fifth referral among presumptives presenting and counseled at pharmacies was diagnosed with TB at GP clinics. This contribution was 9% of all new TB cases identified in these districts through all other private venues linked with the Greenstar Social Marketing setup. Identified barriers and facilitators to implementation and cost effectiveness of pharmacy models for TB case detection should be considered if the model were to be scaled up.

Community- based Active Tuberculosis Case Finding in Pastoralist Communities of North-Eastern Uganda.

Background:Given the global urgency to improve tuberculosis (TB) case detection, a renewed interest in active case finding (ACF) has risen. Missed TB cases pose a serious threat as they continue to fuel TB transmission in the community. We aimed to assess the feasibility of community based ACF for TB among people living in a pastoralist community in Uganda and determine its impact on case detection and treatment uptake.Methods:Between April and May 2019, four third year medical and nursing students placed at Moroto Regional Referral for community orientation worked together with community health workers to conduct a door-to-door survey for TB in pastoralist communities of Nadunget Sub County, Moroto district. The community health workers and the Medical/Nursing students performed symptom screening, collected sputum and facilitated specimen transport to the laboratory. Gene Xpert MTB/RIF assay was performed at the regional referral Hospital for all sputum samples. The community health workers were tasked to follow up on all those clients whose samples turned out to be positive so that they could start treatment as soon as possible. All presumptive cases with negative sputum results were referred to the TB clinic for further evaluation.Results:In one month, we screened 385 individuals and identified 143 aged above 15 years with symptoms suggestive of TB. Among the presumptive cases, 132 (92%) reported a cough of more than two weeks and we were able to obtain sputum samples from 84(58.7%) participants. We diagnosed 11, including 8 bacteriologically confirmed TB cases using Gene Xpert and there was no multidrug resistant case identified. The median time from sputum collection to notification of the positive result was 3 days. All the positive cases were followed up and initiated on treatment.Conclusion:The findings from our study suggest that in a pastoralist community, ACF for TB using a sensitive symptom screen followed by Gene Xpert contributed to improved case detection of TB, shortening the turnaround time hence timely initiation of patients on TB treatment.

Tuberculosis infection control in a South African rural regional hospital emergency centre: Prioritisation for patients and healthcare workers

South Africa (SA) is in the midst of a tuberculosis (TB) epidemic and has one of the highest TB incidence rates globally. Despite increasingglobal commitment to eliminate TB, SA appears to be falling behind in this regard. This article examines key challenges to effective TBinfection control from a rural regional hospital perspective. It uses the Eden District in Western Cape Province as an example to sharelessons learnt. This quality-improvement project identifies four priorities for improving TB infection control in George Hospital and theEden District: (i) prioritising TB infection control in local policy; (ii) improving the quality of TB screening in the emergency centre;(iii) increasing the number of TB patients followed up; and (iv) implementing TB infection control training for all staff. This projectdemonstrates the role of an emergency centre in TB screening, highlighting that this should not only be a priority for primary care, butalso for secondary and tertiary care. Simple interventions, such as training of local healthcare workers in TB infection control and good-qualityTB screening, can initiate a behavioural change. It also stresses the importance of good communication and co-ordination of careacross primary and secondary care, ensuring that patients are not lost to follow-up. Local policy needs to reflect these straightforwardinterventions, empowering local healthcare workers and managers to increase responsibility and accountability for TB infection control.TBis preventable, and infection control needs to become a priority throughout SA primary, secondary and tertiary care. This project highlightsthat simple interventions, such as engaging local healthcare workers in a co-ordinated multisystem and multidisciplinary approach, couldhelp to reduce the number of missing TB cases and bring SA's TB epidemic under control.

Is the public-private mix approach increasing tuberculosis case notification in Azad Jammu and Kashmir, Pakistan? A cross-sectional study

Background: Pakistan ranks among high tuberculosis (TB) burden countries, with about 200,000 missing TB cases. Despite significant increase in case detection and treatment outcomes through public-private mix (PPM) globally, the contribution of the private sector may vary in different parts of Pakistan Methods: This was a cross sectional study conducted in state of Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK), Pakistan. The study was a retrospective record review of routine TB notification and treatment outcomes for 2015 to 2016 in districts with and without a PPM approach. The study was conducted in all districts of AJK, including all public and private health facilities. Intra-district comparison in PPM supported districts was also carried out. Results: Total notified TB cases during 2015-16 were 11479. Districts with PPM support has notified 5882 (51.24%) of TB cases while districts without PPM support contributed 5597 (48.87%). Pulmonary clinical diagnosis was higher in PPM supported districts (45.43%) as compared to districts without PPM support (31.11%). Notification of extra pulmonary TB cases was lower in PPM supported districts (1256; 21.35%) as compared to districts without PPM support (1877; 33.54%). Unfavourable treatment outcomes (treatment failure, died, lost to follow-up) was higher in PPM facilities (5.84%). Conclusion: The study shows minimal increase in TB case finding through the PPM approach. While this is an important aspect in END TB strategy, this needs more careful evaluation.

Point of care diagnostics for tuberculosis

The goals of the End TB strategy, which aims to achieve a 90% reduction in tuberculosis (TB) incidence and a 95% reduction in TB mortality by 2035, will not be achieved without new tools to fight TB. These include improved point of care (POC) diagnostic tests that are meant to be delivered at the most decentralised levels of care where the patients make the initial contact with the health system, as well as within the community. These tests should be able to be performed on an easily accessible sample and provide results in a timely manner, allowing a quick treatment turnaround time of a few minutes or hours (in a single clinical encounter), hence avoiding patient loss-to-follow-up. There have been exciting developments in recent years, including the WHO endorsement of Xpert MTB/RIF, Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra, loop-mediated isothermal amplification (TB-LAMP) and lateral flow lipoarabinomannan (LAM). However, these tests have limitations that must be overcome before they can be optimally applied at the POC. Furthermore, worrying short- to medium-term gaps exist in the POC diagnostic test development pipeline. Thus, not only is better implementation of existing tools and algorithms needed, but new research is required to develop new POC tests that allow the TB community to truly make an impact and find the “missed TB cases”.

Using Patient-Pathway Analysis to Inform a Differentiated Program Response to Tuberculosis: The Case of Kenya.

BackgroundA recent tuberculosis prevalence survey in Kenya found that the country is home to nearly twice as many patients with tuberculosis as previously estimated. Kenya has prioritized identifying and treating the unnotified or missing cases of tuberculosis. This requires a better understanding of patient care seeking and system weaknesses.MethodsA patient-pathway analysis (PPA) was completed to assess the alignment between patient care seeking and the availability of tuberculosis diagnostic and treatment services at the national level and for all 47 counties at the subnational level in Kenya.ResultsIt was estimated that more than half of patients initiate care in the public sector. Nationally, just under half of patients encountered tuberculosis diagnostic and treatment capacity where they initiated care. Overall, there was distinct variation in diagnostic and treatment availability across counties and facility levels.DiscussionThe PPA results emphasized the need for a differentiated approach to tuberculosis care, by county, and the distinct need for better referral systems. The majority of Kenyans actively sought care; improving diagnostic and treatment capacity in the formal and informal private sector, as well as in the public sector, could help identify the majority of missing cases.

A novel Bayesian geospatial method for estimating tuberculosis incidence reveals many missed TB cases in Ethiopia

BackgroundReported tuberculosis (TB) incidence globally continues to be heavily influenced by expert opinion of case detection rates and ecological estimates of disease duration. Both approaches are recognised as having substantial variability and inaccuracy, leading to uncertainty in true TB incidence and other such derived statistics.MethodsWe developed Bayesian binomial mixture geospatial models to estimate TB incidence and case detection rate (CDR) in Ethiopia. In these models the underlying true incidence was formulated as a partially observed Markovian process following a mixed Poisson distribution and the detected (observed) TB cases as a binomial distribution, conditional on CDR and true incidence. The models use notification data from multiple areas over several years and account for the existence of undetected TB cases and variability in true underlying incidence and CDR. Deviance information criteria (DIC) were used to select the best performing model.ResultsA geospatial model was the best fitting approach. This model estimated that TB incidence in Sheka Zone increased from 198 (95% Credible Interval (CrI) 187, 233) per 100,000 population in 2010 to 232 (95% CrI 212, 253) per 100,000 population in 2014. The model revealed a wide discrepancy between the estimated incidence rate and notification rate, with the estimated incidence ranging from 1.4 (in 2014) to 1.7 (in 2010) times the notification rate (CDR of 71% and 60% respectively). Population density and TB incidence in neighbouring locations (spatial lag) predicted the underlying TB incidence, while health facility availability predicted higher CDR.ConclusionOur model estimated trends in underlying TB incidence while accounting for undetected cases and revealed significant discrepancies between incidence and notification rates in rural Ethiopia. This approach provides an alternative approach to estimating incidence, entirely independent of the methods involved in current estimates and is feasible to perform from routinely collected surveillance data.

Engagement of the private pharmaceutical sector for TB control: rhetoric or reality?

BackgroundPrivate-sector retail drug outlets are often the first point of contact for common health ailments, including tuberculosis (TB). Systematic reviews on public-private mix (PPM) interventions for TB did not perform in-depth reviews specifically on engaging retail drug outlets and related stakeholders in the pharmaceutical sector. Our objective was to better understand the extent to which the World Health Organization’s (WHO) recommendation on engaging retail drug outlets has been translated into programmatic policy, strategy, and intervention in low- and middle-income countries.MethodsThe study included a content analysis of global-level documents from WHO and the Stop TB Partnership in five phases. A country-level content analysis from four data sources was performed. Global-level findings were tabulated based on key messages related to engaging retail drug outlets. Country-level findings were analyzed based on four factors and tabulated. National strategic plans for TB control from 14 countries with varying TB burdens and a strong private sector were reviewed.Results33 global-level documents and 77 full-text articles and Union World Lung Health conference abstracts were included for review. Based on experience of engaging retail drug outlets that has emerged since the mid-2000s, in 2011 WHO and the International Pharmaceutical Federation released a joint statement on promoting the engagement of national pharmacy associations in partnership with national TB programs. Only two of 14 countries’ national strategic plans had explicit statements on the need to engage their national pharmacy professional association. The success rate of referrals from retail drug outlets who visited an approved health facility for TB screening ranged from 48% in Vietnam to 86% in Myanmar. Coverage of retail drug outlets ranged from less than 5 to 9% of the universe of retail drug outlets.ConclusionsFor WHO’s End TB Strategy to be successful, scaling up retail drug outlets to increase national coverage, at least in countries with a thriving private sector, will be instrumental in accelerating the early detection and referral of the 3 million missing TB cases. The proposed PPM pharmacy model is applicable not only for TB control but also to tackle the antimicrobial resistance crisis in these countries.

Mainstreaming tuberculosis case detection and reporting in medical colleges in India: early lesson learnt.

In India, the contribution of medical colleges to the Revised National Tuberculosis Control Programme (RNTCP) in terms of tuberculosis (TB) case detection is exemplary.1 In 2013, about 15.2% of TB cases were detected in the 330 medical colleges across the country.2 The RNTCP extends support to medical colleges by providing human resources (a medical officer, TB health visitor and laboratory technician), the requisite logistics for microscopy activities and drugs for TB treatment.3 The infrastructure to establish this programme unit is provided by each medical college, and is often known as the ‘RNTCP cell’. The programme guidelines suggest that all TB cases detected in medical college clinical departments should be routed through the RNTCP cell, where patients are registered and initiated on anti-tuberculosis treatment. For programme monitoring and reporting, the medical college is considered as the peripheral health institute (PHI), and they submit monthly PHI report and quarterly case finding reports to the district TB control officer. We discuss an innovative approach to mainstreaming TB case detection and reporting by the academic sector. Missed TB cases are one of the main challenges to TB control today.4 The contribution to reducing ‘missed TB cases’—those who are either never diagnosed or are diagnosed in the laboratory but do not appear on the TB treatment register—is of paramount importance. As medical colleges are well resourced with diagnostic equipment and many more severe cases might end up there, there may be an impact on TB transmission and mortality which is of likely benefit to the new ‘End TB’ strategy. The issues prevailing in the current reporting mechanisms and ways of strengthening the recording and reporting at medical colleges are enumerated below. The medical college is a huge institution, with 18 departments, the majority of which (except anatomy and physiology) are involved directly or indirectly in screening, diagnosing, investigating, treating or managing a case of TB. The burden of TB cases detected for the first time at autopsy by the department of forensic medicine is also well recognised.5 In the current system, all presumptive TB cases screened for TB who are either smear-negative or extra-pulmonary are not captured. We believe it is crucial to record these data from all the departments, as there remains a high probability that some of these missed cases may later turn out positive.6 As tertiary health facilities, medical colleges are equipped with all types of equipment for investigating a case. The decreasing trend of nationwide smear-negative TB case detection augments the importance of capturing the data at subunit levels of a medical college. The majority of TB cases diagnosed at medical colleges are referred to the primary health centre nearest to the patient's residence for initiation of treatment. The programme depends entirely on referral forms, the postal service, short messaging service (SMS) using mobile phones and telephone to inform the primary health centre and district TB officer about the referral. However, this communication mechanism is tedious, often delayed and lacks promptness in providing feedback. This inefficient system also leads to interdistrict and interstate referral meetings that are usually less fruitful. It is thus imperative for the programme to develop a real-time web-based referral mechanism that is effective and prevents unnecessary loss of time for the programme staff. There is an urgent need to develop better recording and reporting systems in medical colleges. Mechanisms to capture all presumptive and diagnosed TB cases should be made operational through full involvement of the medical records department of the medical colleges. Strengthening the medical colleges will be a very helpful investment for the RNTCP in years to come.

Are TB control programmes in South Asia ignoring children with disease? A situational analysis

Paediatric tuberculosis (TB) has long been an evasive entity for public health practitioners striving to control the disease. Owing to difficulty in diagnosis of paediatric TB, incidence estimates based on...