Nighttime Minimum Temperature Research Articles

Assessment of Heat Exposure and Health Outcomes in Rural Populations of Western Kenya by Using Wearable Devices: Observational Case Study.

Climate change increasingly impacts health, particularly of rural populations in sub-Saharan Africa due to their limited resources for adaptation. Understanding these impacts remains a challenge, as continuous monitoring of vital signs in such populations is limited. Wearable devices (wearables) present a viable approach to studying these impacts on human health in real time. The aim of this study was to assess the feasibility and effectiveness of consumer-grade wearables in measuring the health impacts of weather exposure on physiological responses (including activity, heart rate, body shell temperature, and sleep) of rural populations in western Kenya and to identify the health impacts associated with the weather exposures. We conducted an observational case study in western Kenya by utilizing wearables over a 3-week period to continuously monitor various health metrics such as step count, sleep patterns, heart rate, and body shell temperature. Additionally, a local weather station provided detailed data on environmental conditions such as rainfall and heat, with measurements taken every 15 minutes. Our cohort comprised 83 participants (42 women and 41 men), with an average age of 33 years. We observed a positive correlation between step count and maximum wet bulb globe temperature (estimate 0.06, SE 0.02; P=.008). Although there was a negative correlation between minimum nighttime temperatures and heat index with sleep duration, these were not statistically significant. No significant correlations were found in other applied models. A cautionary heat index level was recorded on 194 (95.1%) of 204 days. Heavy rainfall (>20 mm/day) occurred on 16 (7.8%) out of 204 days. Despite 10 (21%) out of 47 devices failing, data completeness was high for sleep and step count (mean 82.6%, SD 21.3% and mean 86.1%, SD 18.9%, respectively), but low for heart rate (mean 7%, SD 14%), with adult women showing significantly higher data completeness for heart rate than men (2-sided t test: P=.003; Mann-Whitney U test: P=.001). Body shell temperature data achieved 36.2% (SD 24.5%) completeness. Our study provides a nuanced understanding of the health impacts of weather exposures in rural Kenya. Our study's application of wearables reveals a significant correlation between physical activity levels and high temperature stress, contrasting with other studies suggesting decreased activity in hotter conditions. This discrepancy invites further investigation into the unique socioenvironmental dynamics at play, particularly in sub-Saharan African contexts. Moreover, the nonsignificant trends observed in sleep disruption due to heat expose the need for localized climate change mitigation strategies, considering the vital role of sleep in health. These findings emphasize the need for context-specific research to inform policy and practice in regions susceptible to the adverse health effects of climate change.

Yield Gap Analysis of Super High-Yielding Rice (>15 t ha−1) in Two Ecological Regions

Super high-yielding rice (SHYR) (>15 t ha−1) plays a crucial role in global food production and security. We hypothesized that the external environment of different ecological regions could improve biomass accumulation in different periods and thus increase the rice yield. Two SHYR varieties, i.e., Xiangliangyou900 (XLY900) and Yliangyou900 (YLY900), were cultivated in the YONGSHENG and LONGHUI ecoregions, China. The results indicated that the average yield of the two SHYRs in the LONGHUI ecological region was 15.27–15.45 t ha−1 and 18.81–20.10 t ha−1 in YONGSHENG. The high grain yield in the YONGSHENG ecoregion was mainly due to the increased number of spikelets per panicle, crop growth rate, and total biomass during the transplanting–heading stage (TP-HS) and heading–maturity stage (HS-MS), and harvest index. The yield of SHYR was significantly correlated with external environment conditions, i.e., average minimum temperature, average daytime, and night-time temperature, and average daily temperature at the TP-HS, HS-MS, and transplanting–maturity (TP-MS) stages. The rice yield was significantly and positively correlated with the cumulative daily radiation. Therefore, it can be concluded that the final yield of super high-yield rice is closely related to the utilization of temperature and radiation resources during the growth process in the ecological environment.

Pavement Temperature Forecasts Based on Model Output Statistics: Experiments for Highways in Jiangsu, China

Forecasts on transportation meteorology, such as pavement temperature, are becoming increasingly important in the face of global warming and frequent disruptions from extreme weather and climate events. In this study, we propose a pavement temperature forecast model based on stepwise regression—model output statistics (SRMOS) at the short-term timescale, using highways in Jiangsu, China, as examples. Experiments demonstrate that the SRMOS model effectively calibrates against the benchmark of the linear regression model based on surface air temperature (LRT). The SRMOS model shows a reduction in mean absolute errors by 0.7–1.6 °C, with larger magnitudes observed for larger biases in the LRT forecasts. Both forecasts exhibit higher accuracy in predicting minimum nighttime temperatures compared to maximum daytime temperatures. Additionally, it overall shows increasing biases from the north to the south, and the SRMOS superiority is greater over the south with larger initial LRT biases. Predictor importance analysis indicates that temperature, moisture, and larger-scale background are basically the key predictors in the SRMOS model for pavement temperature forecasts, of which the air temperature is the most crucial factor in the model’s construction. Although larger-scale circulation backgrounds are generally characterized by relatively low importance, their significance increases with longer lead times. The presented results demonstrate the considerable skill of the SRMOS model in predicting pavement temperatures, highlighting its potential in disaster prevention for extreme transportation meteorology events.

Trends in tropical nights and their effects on mortality in Switzerland across 50 years

Increasing temperatures and more frequent and severe heat waves in Switzerland are leading to a larger heat-related health burden. Additionally, high nighttime temperatures or tropical nights (TNs) also affect the well-being of the population. We aimed to assess the spatiotemporal patterns in the frequency and the exposed population to TNs, and its mortality effect in Switzerland. We identified the TNs (minimum nighttime temperature ≥ 20°C) in each district in Switzerland using population-weighted hourly temperature series (ERA5-Land reanalysis data set) between 1970–2019. We assessed the change in the frequency of TNs and the exposed population per district and decade through a spatiotemporal analysis. We then performed a case time series analysis to estimate the TN-mortality association (controlled for the daily mean temperature) by canton and for the main 8 cities using data on all-cause mortality at the district level between 1980–2018. We found an overall increase in the annual frequency of TN (from 90 to 2113 TNs per decade) and the population exposed (from 3.7 million to over 157 million population-TN per decade) in Switzerland between 1970–2019, mainly in the cities of Lausanne, Geneva, Basel, Lugano, and Zurich, and during the last two decades. The TN-mortality association was highly heterogeneous across cantons and cities. In particular, TNs were associated with an increase of 22–37% in the risk of mortality in the cantons of Vaud (Relative risk: 1.37 (95%CI:1.19–1.59)), Zurich (1.33 (0.99–1.79)), Lucerne (1.33 (0.95–1.87)) and Solothurn (1.22 (0.88–1.69)), while a negative association was observed in Ticino (0.51 (0.37–0.7)), Basel-Land (0.4 (0.24–0.65)) and Thurgau (0.65 (0.5–0.85)), and a null association in the remaining cantons. Our findings indicate that TNs are a relevant health hazard for a large part of the Swiss population leading to potentially larger impacts in the future due to climate change and increasing urbanization.

Impact of High Night Temperature on Yield and Pasting Properties of Flour in Early and Late-Maturing Wheat Genotypes.

The inexorable process of climate change in terms of the rise in minimum (nighttime) temperature delineates its huge impact on crop plants. It can affect the yield and quality of various crops. We investigated the effect of high night temperature (HNT) (+2.3 °C over ambient) from booting to physiological maturity on the yield parameters, grain growth rate (GGR), starch content, composition, and flour rheological properties in early (HI 1544, HI 1563) and late-maturing (HD 2932) wheat genotypes. The change in yield under HNT was highly correlated with grain number per plant (r = 0.740 ***) and hundred-grain weight (r = 0.628 **), although the reduction in grain weight was not significantly different. This was also reflected as an insignificant change in starch content (except in HI 1544). Under HNT, late-sown genotypes (HI 1563 and HD 2932) maintained high GGR compared to the timely sown (HI 1544) genotype during the early period of grain growth (5 to 10 days after anthesis), which declined during the later phase of grain development. The increased rheological properties under HNT can be attributed to a significant reduction in the amylose to amylopectin (AMY/AMP) ratio in early-maturity genotypes (HI 1544 and HI 1563). The AMY/AMP ratio was positively correlated to flour rheological parameters (except setback from peak) under HNT. Our study reports the HNT-induced change in the amylose/amylopectin ratio in early maturing wheat genotypes, which determines the stability of flour starches for specific end-use products.

Soil moisture and micrometeorological differences across reference and thinned stands during extremes of precipitation, southern Cascade Range

Modern forest management generally relies on thinning treatments to reduce fuels and mitigate the threat of catastrophic wildfire. They have also been proposed as a tool to augment downstream flows by reducing evapotranspiration. Warming climates are causing many forests to transition from snow-dominated to rain-dominated precipitation regimes—in which water stores are depleted earlier in the summer. However, there are relatively few studies of these systems that directly measure the hydrologic impacts of such treatments during and following snow-free winters. This work compares the below-canopy meteorological and subsurface hydrologic differences between two thinning prescriptions and an unaltered Control during periods of extreme drought and near-record precipitation (with little snow). The field site was within a coniferous forest in the rain-snow transition zone of the southern Cascades, near the Sierra Nevada Range of California. Both thinning-prescriptions had a modest and predictable impact on below-canopy meteorology, which included their causing lower nighttime minimum temperatures in the critical summer months and higher wind speeds. Relative to the Control, both treatments affected soil moisture storage by delaying its annual decline and increasing its minimum value by the end of the season. The onset of soil moisture depletion was strongly tied to the magnitude of winter precipitation. In dry years, it began much earlier within the dense Control stand than in the treated ones, and, without snow, soil moisture was not replenished in the late spring. During high precipitation years, the storage capacity was topped off for all three stands, which resulted in similar timing of moisture decline across them, later in the season. The two thinning prescriptions increased stores through the height of summer (in wet and drought years). Finally, the basal area increment (BAI) of the remaining trees rose in both, suggesting they used the excess moisture to support rapid growth.

Asymmetric Impacts of Diurnal Warming on Vegetation Carbon Sequestration of Marshes in the Qinghai Tibet Plateau

AbstractAs the world's Third Pole, the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau has a large area of marshes, which plays an important role in global carbon cycle. The net primary productivity (NPP) of vegetation is a crucial index for measuring the carbon flux of marsh ecosystems. Understanding the change in marsh NPP and its response to climatic change is important for assessing carbon sequestration of marsh ecosystems. Based on MODIS NPP data and climate data from 2000 to 2020, this study analyzed the spatiotemporal change in marsh NPP and determined its relationship with climate factors on the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau. The results showed that the average annual NPP of marshes on the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau increased significantly by 11.70 ± 1.07 g C·m−2/10a during 2000–2020, with an average value of about 184.37 ± 11.12 g C·m−2. Spatially, the annual marsh NPP showed obviously increasing trend in the northeast but decreasing trend in the southwest regions. Daytime maximum and nighttime minimum temperatures had asymmetric effects on marsh NPP, with a larger positive effect of minimum temperature. Warmed minimum temperatures in winter and spring significantly increased the annual marsh NPP on the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau. The increasing maximum and minimum temperatures in the summer obviously promoted the vegetation growth in marshes. Additionally, the increasing spring precipitation could significantly increase the marsh NPP. Our results highlight that the asymmetric impacts of daytime and nighttime temperatures on marsh vegetation should be adequately considered in predicting marsh carbon sequestration on the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau, especially in the context of global asymmetric diurnal warming.

Respiratory and Photosynthetic Responses of Antarctic Vascular Plants Are Differentially Affected by CO2 Enrichment and Nocturnal Warming

Projected rises in atmospheric CO2 concentration and minimum night-time temperatures may have important effects on plant carbon metabolism altering the carbon balance of the only two vascular plant species in the Antarctic Peninsula. We assessed the effect of nocturnal warming (8/5 °C vs. 8/8 °C day/night) and CO2 concentrations (400 ppm and 750 ppm) on gas exchange, non-structural carbohydrates, two respiratory-related enzymes, and mitochondrial size and number in two species of vascular plants. In Colobanthus quitensis, light-saturated photosynthesis measured at 400 ppm was reduced when plants were grown in the elevated CO2 or in the nocturnal warming treatments. Growth in elevated CO2 reduced stomatal conductance but nocturnal warming did not. The short-term sensitivity of respiration, relative protein abundance, and mitochondrial traits were not responsive to either treatment in this species. Moreover, some acclimation to nocturnal warming at ambient CO2 was observed. Altogether, these responses in C. quitensis led to an increase in the respiration-assimilation ratio in plants grown in elevated CO2. The response of Deschampsia antarctica to the experimental treatments was quite distinct. Photosynthesis was not affected by either treatment; however, respiration acclimated to temperature in the elevated CO2 treatment. The observed short-term changes in thermal sensitivity indicate type I acclimation of respiration. Growth in elevated CO2 and nocturnal warming resulted in a reduction in mitochondrial numbers and an increase in mitochondrial size in D. antarctica. Overall, our results suggest that with climate change D. antarctica could be more successful than C. quitensis, due to its ability to make metabolic adjustments to maintain its carbon balance.

Understanding the Impact of Urban Expansion and Lake Shrinkage on Summer Climate and Human Thermal Comfort in a Land‐Water Mosaic Area

AbstractWuhan has witnessed unprecedented urban expansion that encroached upon sizable inland lakes. However, the impacts of urban expansion on climate and heat stress for such a city with complex physiographic background (land‐water mosaics) remain understudied. Using a coupled urban‐lake‐atmospheric model, we first examined summer climate responses to urban expansion and lake shrinkage in Wuhan during 2000–2020. Second, multiple heat stress indicators were used to evaluate human thermal comfort in different contexts of interest. Results showed that the presence of water bodies reduced daytime maximum temperature, raised nighttime minimum temperature, and increased moisture content in urban and built‐up areas. Urban expansion alone led to summer warming of 0.9°C and drying of 0.9 g/kg, with local peak warming and drying up to 2°C and 1.4 g/kg. In comparison, urban expansion with lake shrinkage showed a reduced magnitude of warming of 0.8°C and increased magnitude of drying of 1.6 g/kg, with the maximum changes up to 1.4°C and 2.0 g/kg. The presence of water bodies reduced while urban expansion increased the frequency of occurrence of yellow and orange heat alert days; however, both increased the number of days exerting high thermal risks on outdoor workers and those days that were dangerous for outdoor pedestrians. Our study underlined that both urban expansion and water body existence exerted a strong influence on summer climate and heat stress in Wuhan, and highlighted that mitigation measures should be taken to alleviate the deleterious impacts of high temperature and humidity on human health.

Distinct Climate Effects on Dahurian Larch Growth at an Asian Temperate-Boreal Forest Ecotone and Nearby Boreal Sites

Climate change is exerting profound impacts on the structure and function of global boreal forest. Compared with their northern counterparts, trees growing at the southern boreal forest and the temperate-boreal forest ecotone likely show distinct responses to climate change. Based on annual basal areal increment (BAI) of Dahurian larch (Larix gmelinii Rupr.) plantations with similar ages, tree densities and soil nutrient conditions, we investigated the tree growth responses to inter-annual climate variations at an Asian temperate-boreal forest ecotone and nearby boreal sites in northeast China. Annual BAI changed nonlinearly with cambial age in the form of a lognormal curve. The maximum annual BAI showed no significant difference between the two bioregions, while annual BAI peaked at an elder age at the boreal-temperate forest ecotone. After eliminating the age associated trend, conditional regression analyses indicate that residual BAI at the boreal sites increased significantly with higher growing-season mean nighttime minimum temperature and non-growing-season precipitation, but decreased significantly with higher growing-season mean daytime maximum temperature during the past three decades (1985–2015). In contrast, residual BAI at the boreal-temperate forest ecotone only showed a positive and weak response to inter-annual variations of growing-season precipitation. These findings suggest distinct effects of inter-annual climate variation on the growth of boreal trees at the temperate-boreal forest ecotone in comparison to the southern boreal regions, and highlight future efforts to elucidate the key factors that regulate the growth ofthe southernmost boreal trees.

Ambient warming and human sleep duration and timing: a worldwide case-crossover study using big data from wearable devices

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Only limited self-report evidence links outdoor temperatures with alterations in sleep. We aimed to assess the attributable impact of nighttime minimum temperature on objectively recorded sleep outcomes. METHODS: In a global natural experiment, we linked over 10 billion minute-level sleep measurements comprising 7.41 million nightly sleep records (n=47,628) from accelerometer-based wristbands to daily meteorological data across 68 countries between 2015 and 2017. We used person-level longitudinal panel fixed effects models to isolate the within-person sleep impact attributable to nighttime temperature. The primary endpoints were sleep timing and total time asleep. RESULTS:Controlling for potential device-specific, person-specific, location-specific, and temporal confounds, warmer temperatures were associated with reduced sleep duration across the observed temperature distribution. Within-person sleep duration declined by 6.11 minutes per every 10°C increase when nighttime minimum temperatures exceeded 10°C. During nights over 25°C, sleep onset was delayed by 5.92 minutes, sleep offset advanced by 2.51 minutes and the probability of short 7hr sleep increased by 3.50 percentage points compared to the median temperature reference range of 5-10°C. The negative relationship between a 1°C increase in ambient temperature and sleep duration was more acute for the elderly compared to middle aged adults, for females compared to males, and residents of lower income countries compared to residents of high income countries. There was no evidence for short term acclimatization or intraday sleep substitution with daytime rest. CONCLUSIONS:Warmer nighttime ambient temperatures were associated with reduced and delayed sleep. This evidence suggests a plausibly causal pathway through which rising temperatures may contribute to global health inequalities if unmitigated climate change continues. Employing 21 global climate models, we project that climate change may cumulatively erode adult sleep by 23.40 hours (warmest regions) to 5.40 hours (coldest regions) annually under a high emissions scenario, barring further adaptation. KEYWORDS: Climate, Big Data, Mental health outcomes, Causal inference, Sleep

The effect of tree shade on ambient conditions and heat stress indicator traits of new-born South African Mutton Merino and Dormer lambs: Preliminary results.

This preliminary study investigated the provision of shade on heat stress indicators of South African Mutton Merino (SAMM) and Dormer lambs shortly after birth, during the autumn 2017 and 2018 lambing seasons. Newborn lambs were assessed to determine whether welfare, as assessed by respiratory response and rectal temperature as heat stress indicators, survival and early growth benefitted from the provision of shade. Groups consisting of 4-17 pregnant SAMM and Dormer ewes were randomly allocated to 5-10 paddocks with natural shade from trees and 5-9 paddocks that were directly in the sun with no shade available. The lambs were recorded within 24h of birth at noon. Climate data were obtained from a nearby weather station. The lambs were also weighed at 12 (SD=2) days of age at tail-docking. Tree shade had a moderating effect on temperature, resulting in lower maximum daytime and higher minimum night-time temperatures. There was an interaction between a temperature-humidity index (THI) and the treatments (access to shade or no access to shade) for respiration and rectal temperature (P<0.01). Both traits were relatively unaffected by the THI at values below 77. Unshaded lambs exhibited a pronounced upwards trend following a THI-threshold of 77-78. Tailing weight tended to be higher while lamb survival of live-born lambs to tail-docking was lower in lambs born in shaded paddocks but these trends did not persist to weaning. Shade is needed to enhance animal welfare by alleviating the effect of high THI-values on hot days in an autumn lambing season.

Analysis of asymmetry in diurnal warming and its impact on vegetation phenology in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau using MODIS remote sensing data

Because of its high altitude, the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) serves as a de facto ecological barrier between China and Southeast Asia. Studying the phenological characteristics of vegetation on QTP and their response to climate change can help us to understand how climate change can impact on highland terrestrial ecosystems and how to improve predicting highland vegetation phenology. Using long-term NDVI data we derived from the MODIS spectral reflectance product (MOD09A1) and in situ climate data in QTP, we investigated (1) the trends of temporal and spatial variations in the phenological characteristics of the highland vegetation, such as the start of growing season (SOS), middle time of growing season (MOS), end of growing season (EOS), and length of growing season (LEN), and (2) the responses of SOS, MOS, and EOS to asymmetry in diurnal warming, i.e., asymmetry in the preseason daily daytime maximum temperature (Tmax) and daily nighttime minimum temperature (Tmin). Results showed that (1) the vegetation phenology in QTP displayed a salient zonal distribution pattern. From the northwest to the southeast, the vegetation SOS and MOS gradually advanced, EOS decreased, and LEN extended; (2) Tmin warmed up faster than Tmax, which indicated that daytime warming and nighttime warming were asymmetrical; (3) the increase in preseason Tmax and that in preseason Tmin played different roles in SOS, MOS, and EOS; and (4) the preseason Tmin showed a stronger control on vegetation phenology than the preseason Tmax. For instance, a 1°C increase in preseason Tmin advanced SOS by 7.07d (p < 0.05) and MOS by 6.80d (p < 0.05), and delayed EOS by 6.70d (p < 0.05). While a 1°C increase in preseason Tmax delayed the SOS, MOS, and EOS by 5.12d, 4.84d, and 1.04d, respectively.

Modeled Response of South American Climate to Three Decades of Deforestation

AbstractThis study investigates the potential effects of historical deforestation in South America using a regional climate model driven with reanalysis data. Two different sources of data were used to quantify deforestation during the 1980s to 2010s, leading to two scenarios of forest loss: smaller but spatially continuous in scenario 1 and larger but spatially scattered in scenario 2. The model simulates a generally warmer and drier local climate following deforestation. Vegetation canopy becomes warmer due to reduced canopy evapotranspiration, and ground becomes warmer due to more radiation reaching the ground. The warming signal for surface air is weaker than for ground and vegetation, likely due to reduced surface roughness suppressing the sensible heat flux. For surface air over deforested areas, the warming signal is stronger for the nighttime minimum temperature and weaker or even becomes a cooling signal for the daytime maximum temperature, due to the strong radiative effects of albedo at midday, which reduces the diurnal amplitude of temperature. The drying signals over deforested areas include lower atmospheric humidity, less precipitation, and drier soil. The model identifies the La Plata basin as a region remotely influenced by deforestation, where a simulated increase of precipitation leads to wetter soil, higher ET, and a strong surface cooling. Over both deforested and remote areas, the deforestation-induced surface climate changes are much stronger in scenario 2 than scenario 1; coarse-resolution data and models (such as in scenario 1) cannot represent the detailed spatial structure of deforestation and underestimate its impact on local and regional climates.

Effects of shading and composition on green roof media temperature and moisture

Three of the primary functions of green roofs in urban areas are to delay rainwater runoff, moderate building temperatures, and ameliorate the urban heat island (UHI) effect. A major impediment to the survival of plants on an unirrigated extensive green roof (EGR) is the harsh rooftop environment, including high temperatures and limited water during dry periods. Factors that influence EGR thermal and hydrologic performance include the albedo (reflectivity) of the roof and the composition of the green roof substrate (growing media). In this study we used white, reflective shading structures and three different media formulations to evaluate EGR thermal and hydrologic performance in the Pacific Northwest, USA. Shading significantly reduced daytime mean and maximum EGR media temperatures and significantly increased nighttime mean and minimum temperatures, which may provide energy benefits to buildings. Mean media moisture was greater in shaded trays than in exposed (unshaded) trays but differences were not statistically significant. Warmer nighttime media temperatures and lack of dew formation in shaded trays may have partially compensated for greater daytime evaporation from exposed trays. Media composition did not significantly influence media temperature or moisture. Results of this study suggest that adding shade structures to green roofs will combine thermal, hydrologic, and ecological benefits, and help achieve temperature and light regimes that allow for greater plant diversity on EGRs.

Influence of teleconnections on night-time minimum temperature variability in the Southwestern U.S.

Night-time minimum temperatures are increasing, faster than day-time maximum temperatures. They are also strongly connected to key outcomes such as health, vegetation, and crop productivity, and therefore changes in the distributions of night-time minimum temperatures have strong impacts on living systems. Night-time minimum temperatures are also related to teleconnections, which are indices that capture climate phenomenon occurring on a large spatial and temporal scale. As autocorrelated sequences, teleconnections are predictable and therefore inform distributions of weather in the near future. In this paper, we link four well-known teleconnections to night-time minimum temperatures in the American Southwest. These teleconnections are covariates for the mean process, but also for the variance, which is modelled as an exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic process (AR-EGARCH). The resulting models are used to estimate the probability of a low temperature event across the phases of each teleconnection, demonstrating the impact each teleconnection has on variability of night-time minimum temperatures.

A global analysis on the effect of temperature, socio-economic and environmental factors on the spread and mortality rate of the COVID-19 pandemic.

We performed a global analysis with data from 149 countries to test whether temperature can explain the spatial variability of the spread rate and mortality of COVID-19 at the global scale. We performed partial correlation analysis and linear mixed effect modelling to evaluate the association of the spread rate and motility of COVID-19 with maximum, minimum, average temperatures and diurnal temperature variation (difference between daytime maximum and night-time minimum temperature) and other environmental and socio-economic parameters. After controlling the effect of the duration since the first positive case, partial correlation analysis revealed that temperature was not related with the spatial variability of the spread rate of COVID-19 at the global scale. Mortality was negatively related with temperature in the countries with high-income economies. In contrast, diurnal temperature variation was significantly and positively correlated with mortality in the low- and middle-income countries. Taking the country heterogeneity into account, mixed effect modelling revealed that inclusion of temperature as a fixed factor in the model significantly improved model skill predicting mortality in the low- and middle-income countries. Our analysis suggests that warm climate may reduce the mortality rate in high-income economies, but in low- and middle-income countries, high diurnal temperature variation may increase the mortality risk.

Global variation in diurnal asymmetry in temperature, cloud cover, specific humidity and precipitation and its association with leaf area index.

The impacts of the changing climate on the biological world vary across latitudes, habitats and spatial scales. By contrast, the time of day at which these changes are occurring has received relatively little attention. As biologically significant organismal activities often occur at particular times of day, any asymmetry in the rate of change between the daytime and night-time will skew the climatic pressures placed on them, and this could have profound impacts on the natural world. Here we determine global spatial variation in the difference in the mean annual rate at which near-surface daytime maximum and night-time minimum temperatures and mean daytime and mean night-time cloud cover, specific humidity and precipitation have changed over land. For the years 1983-2017, we derived hourly climate data and assigned each hour as occurring during daylight or darkness. In regions that showed warming asymmetry of >0.5°C (equivalent to mean surface temperature warming during the 20th century) we investigated corresponding changes in cloud cover, specific humidity and precipitation. We then examined the proportional change in leaf area index (LAI) as one potential biological response to diel warming asymmetry. We demonstrate that where night-time temperatures increased by >0.5°C more than daytime temperatures, cloud cover, specific humidity and precipitation increased. Conversely, where daytime temperatures increased by >0.5°C more than night-time temperatures, cloud cover, specific humidity and precipitation decreased. Driven primarily by increased cloud cover resulting in a dampening of daytime temperatures, over twice the area of land has experienced night-time warming by >0.25°C more than daytime warming, and has become wetter, with important consequences for plant phenology and species interactions. Conversely, greater daytime relative to night-time warming is associated with hotter, drier conditions, increasing species vulnerability to heat stress and water budgets. This was demonstrated by a divergent response of LAI to warming asymmetry.

Both day and night warming reduce tree growth in extremely dry soils

Trees in global forests are exposed to warming climate, the rate of which is different between day and night, and associated with soil drought. Previous studies commonly show that forest growth responds positively to daytime warming but negatively to night warming. However, it remains unclear whether such asymmetric responses of forest growth to day and night warming still exist in extremely dry soils. Here, based on the long-term records of the normalized difference vegetation index and ring-width index at 2294 forest sites across the Northern Hemisphere, we found that the rising daytime maximum temperature (Tmax) reduces stem growth but the rising nighttime minimum temperature (Tmin) lowers canopy greenness when the soil is drier than a threshold. We further discuss three mechanisms that could drive such negative impacts. For example, data from experimental studies showed that the shifted biomass allocation from wood to leaves is one important mechanism driving the reductions of wood growth under day warming. These findings indicate that climate warming could negatively affect tree growth in extremely dry soils, regardless of whether temperature rises during the daytime or at night. Thus, understanding the interactions of water and temperature on the sub-diurnal scale is critical for improving our ability to predict the forest dynamics under future climate change.

Vegetation Change and Its Response to Climate Change between 2000 and 2016 in Marshes of the Songnen Plain, Northeast China

Songnen Plain is a representative semi-arid marshland in China. The Songnen Plain marshes have undergone obvious loss during the past decades. In order to protect and restore wetland vegetation, it is urgent to investigate the vegetation change and its response to climate change in the Songnen Plain marshes. Based on the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and climate data, we investigated the spatiotemporal change of vegetation and its relationship with temperature and precipitation in the Songnen Plain marshes. During 2000–2016, the growing season mean NDVI of the Songnen Plain marshes significantly (p &lt; 0.01) increased at a rate of 0.06/decade. For the climate change effects on vegetation, the growing season precipitation had a significant positive effect on the growing season NDVI of marshes. In addition, this study first found asymmetric effects of daytime maximum temperature (Tmax) and nighttime minimum temperature (Tmin) on NDVI of the Songnen Plain marshes: The growing season NDVI correlated negatively with Tmax but positively with Tmin. Considering the global asymmetric warming of Tmax and Tmin, more attention should be paid to these asymmetric effects of Tmax and Tmin on the vegetation of marshes.