Individual Migration Decisions Research Articles

Study on the impact of hometown resource endowment on farmers’ rural-urban migration decisions against the background of “dual carbon”

This study investigates the impact of hometown resource endowment on farmers’ rural-urban migration decisions within the context of “Dual Carbon” policies. It aims to understand the factors influencing migration decision-making amidst the dynamics of urban and rural land occupation, particularly focusing on the role of hometown resource endowments led by homesteads. Using data from the China Migrants Dynamic Survey (CMDS), this study analyzes the influence of hometown resource endowment, primarily residential land, on farmers’ migration decisions. Ownership of homesteads and contracted land significantly affects farmers’ settlement in cities, while the dividend effect from village collectives is negligible. Additionally, the administrative level of the hometown serves as a significant factor in migration decision-making, particularly in family migration. Homestead and contracted land ownership negatively impacts both household and individual migration decisions. Specifically, owning homesteads exerts a greater influence on whole family migration decisions, reducing the probability of settling in cities by 21.1%. Regional comparative analysis reveals varying effects of owning homesteads and contracted land. While it positively influences household migration to cities in the eastern region, it inhibits migration in the central and western regions. The findings highlight the complex interplay between hometown resource endowment, land use patterns, and rural-urban migration decisions. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for designing effective policies to address migration challenges in the context of environmental and socioeconomic transitions.

The Formation of Rural’s Labor Migration in Rural-Coastal of Aceh, Indonesia: Do Land-Factor or Other Household Characteristics Matters

As in other Indonesian provinces, Aceh is also experiencing demographic changes due to migration patterns. However, the migration rate in Aceh is not much significant in number compared to other provinces in Indonesia. As shown in the findings of this study. In the post-conflict and post-tsunami period, migration patterns in Aceh more influenced by economic factors. Moreover, the agricultural sector that dominates the structure of the regional GDP of Aceh unfortunately tends to decline every year in percentage and not so promising for rural household income and prompted the agricultural labour force to move to the non-agricultural sector and induces rural-urban migration. The study aims to assess the effects of land factors (agriculture) on individual migration decisions in households in four coastal villages in Bireuen district of Aceh. The research approach is the theory of economic migration. The method of analysis used in this study is statistically-descriptive and multiple linear regression analysis, to assess whether land ownership has a significant impact on the labour’s migration behaviour. In the findings of study, we found the relationship of land factor to migration pattern are both induce the “cost of opportunity” and the “hinder factor”. While land ownership does not significantly affect the likelihood of migration, other factors do. These include age, household size, composition of the household labour force, and poverty levels. This study are expected to cover the gaps in the literature on the migration and rural development studies in both Aceh and Indonesia.

Self-organization in mobile populations promotes the evolution of altruistic punishment

Altruistic punishment has been shown to sustain cooperation in social dilemmas. However, the influence of individual migration has often been overlooked in previous studies investigating the emergence of altruistic punishment. In this study, we address this gap by exploring the evolution of altruistic punishment in a mobile population. To capture the complexities of individual migration decisions, we propose a weighted migration model that incorporates individuals’ assessments of potential gains and losses. Our findings reveal that migration prioritizing potential benefits contributes to population clustering, and such spatial self-organization patterns play a vital role in promoting the flourishing of altruistic punishment. Conversely, when individuals are more inclined to avoid losses, it intensifies the dissolution of cooperative clusters and inhibits the evolution of cooperation. Moreover, our results suggest that pro-social punishment can still be maintained during the migration process, even in scenarios with low punishment efficiency, as long as individuals are capable of imposing sufficiently large amounts of punishments. This study provides valuable insights into the emergence and maintenance of altruistic punishment.

La migración asistida de italianos hacia Chile: una lectura desde las teorías migratorias

The present article addresses the process of assisted migration for agricultural purposes from Italy to Chile after World War II. Through the reconstruction of the history of three colonies (located in La Serena, Coquimbo, and Parral) and the analysis of a set of interviews conducted with settlers, it proposes an examination based on migration theories, identifying the “macro” factors that shaped these experiences of human mobility, as well as the “micro” elements that played a role in individual migration decisions. It is concluded that structural factors such as poverty, unemployment, and limited access to land were fundamental in generating the political will to implement assisted migration. Additionally, individual and family motivations were driven not only by economic reasons but also by the desire to improve their overall quality of life.

Job prospects and labour mobility in China

China's structural changes have brought new challenges to its regional employment structures, entailing labour redistribution. Until now, Chinese migration research with a forward-looking perspective and on bilateral longitudinal determinants at the prefecture city level is almost non-existent. This paper investigates the effects of job prospects on individual migration decisions across prefecture boundaries. To this end, we created proxy variables for wage and employment prospects, introduced reference-dependence to a dynamic discrete choice model, and estimated corresponding empirical specifications with a unique quasi-panel of 66,427 individuals from 283 cities during 1997–2017. To address multilateral resistance to migration resulting from the future attractiveness, we exploited various monadic and dyadic fixed effects. Multilevel logit models and two-step system GMM estimation were adopted for the robustness check. Our primary findings are that a 10% increase in the ratio of sector-based employment prospects in cities of destination to cities of origin raises the probability of migration by 1.281–2.185 percentage points, and the effects tend to be stronger when the scale of the ratio is larger. Having a family migration network causes an increase of approximately 6 percentage points in migratory probabilities. Further, labour migrants are more likely to be male, unmarried, younger, or more educated. Our results suggest that the ongoing industrial reform in China influences labour mobility between cities, providing important insights for regional policymakers to prevent brain drain and to attract relevant talent.

Rainfall variability and internal migration: The importance of agriculture linkage and gender inequality

This paper investigates the extent to which individual migration decisions in Vietnam can be driven by climate change, based on the historical rainfall data from 70 weather stations in Vietnam and the Vietnam Access to Resources Household Survey. Utilizing the exogenous variation in the rainfall deviation from the local norms within an individual fixed-effects framework, we uncover the negative association between rainfall and the probability of individual’s decision to migrate. We find that doubling the amount of precipitation relative to the long-run local average reduces the probability of migration by 7.5 percent. This result could potentially be driven by individuals who work in the agriculture sector and could have experienced an increase in income as high precipitation could lead to high yield. Furthermore, our heterogeneity analyses suggest rainfall shocks could perpetuate gender inequality in Vietnam as women are less likely to migrate when being affected by climate change. Policymakers could shift their focus to flood control and water management in affected areas, where people’s livelihoods depend on agriculture, to efficiently address issues related to climate-induced internal migration.

Labor mobility in a monetary union

Internal migration flows are endogenously driven by relative labor market performance in a New Keynesian DSGE model of a monetary union calibrated to U.S. data. When labor markets are competitive, a strict focus on stabilizing unionwide inflation remains close to optimal. With search and matching frictions in regional labor markets, labor mobility across state borders introduces additional trade-offs for optimal monetary policy since workers do not internalize the full effects of their individual migration decisions. But when monetary policy is suboptimal, a mobile labor force helps to close inefficiency gaps in regional labor markets following region-specific shocks. Putting some weight on labor market outcomes in a simple instrument rule enhances welfare more when labor is mobile.

Environmental migration effects of air pollution: Micro-level evidence from China

The willingness of migrating due to air pollution is widespread in China. However, there is a lack of direct evidence and discussion regarding whether this willingness has been translated into action. In this study, PM2.5 concentrations were used to represent air pollution in each city and were compared with individual migration data from the China Labor-force Dynamics Survey (CLDS) to examine population migration effects caused by air pollution. This study showed that (1) Population migration between Chinese cities shows sensitivity to air pollution, and air pollution increases the probability of moving away for local population. This finding is held under multiple robustness and endogeneity tests. (2) Population migration effects caused by air pollution were more pronounced among women, middle-aged people, those with lower educational levels, from agricultural households, Han Chinese groups, and populations in southern cities. (3) The use of individual self-rated health data verified that physical health is an important channel through which individual migration decisions are influenced by air pollution, the older an individual, the more his or her health was affected. In light of these findings, this study led to conclusions regarding targeted policy recommendations in terms of talent clustering, social equity, and demographic balance.

Labor Market Frictions and Moving Costs of the Employed and Unemployed

This paper examines the role of labor market frictions and moving costs in explaining the migration behavior of US workers by employment status. Using data on low-skilled workers from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), I estimate a dynamic model of individual labor supply and migration decisions. The model incorporates a reduced-form search model and allows for migration for non-market reasons. My estimates show that moving costs are substantial and that labor market frictions primarily inhibit migration of the employed. I use the model to study migration responses to local labor market shocks and to a moving subsidy. Workers' preferences for non-market amenities, coupled with substantial moving costs and employment frictions, grant market power to incumbent employers. Large moving costs also likely affect employers' recruiting behavior.

The Impacts of Rainfall Shocks on Migration in Vietnam

This paper investigates the extent to which exposure to climate volatility can influence individual migration decisions in Vietnam. Utilizing the exogenous variation in the rainfall deviation from the local norms within an individual fixed-effects framework, we uncover the negative association between rainfall and the probability of individual migration. Doubling the amount of rainfall relative to the long-run local average reduces individual migration probability by 7.5 percentage points. This relationship could potentially be driven by individuals working in agriculture who are less likely to move due to higher agricultural income from more rainfall. Furthermore, our heterogeneity analyses suggest that rainfall shocks could perpetuate the gender inequality in Vietnam since women lack the ability to cope with climatic shocks through migration.

Climatic shocks and internal migration - Evidence from 442 million personal records in 64 countries

This paper examines whether and how climatic shocks influence individual migration decisions. We use census microdata across 64 countries over the period 1960 to 2012, covering 442 million individual records, combined with geo-referenced temperature and precipitation data summarised for each origin and destination administrative unit. Migration is identified when an individual changed a place of usual residence one, five or ten years ago to a new major administrative unit in the same country. Given an exceptionally large number of observations, we apply a two-step approach to analyse the relationship between exposure to climatic shocks and migration. First, we use random forest models to uncover that in many countries climatic shocks are as important as better-known individual-level covariates in determining migration decisions. This observation serves as a yardstick for the second step of our analysis. For a subset of countries, where rainfall shocks play an important role in migration, we compare internal migration patterns across time by examining whether a region experiencing positive or negative rainfall shocks observed higher or lower migration. We find that negative rainfall shocks suppress outmigration particularly for low-income countries. The opposite is true for positive rainfall shocks whereby migration is found to increase, especially for lower-income countries. Our finding supports the liquidity constraint argument whereby adverse climatic conditions can disrupt migration financing and consequently suppress ability to migrate.

Migration with pension reform expectations

Pension reforms, which imply a reduction in the generosity of pension benefits, are becoming widespread in response to the demographic transition. The scale, the timing, and the pace of these reforms vary across countries. In this theoretical article, authors analyse individual migration decisions, by adding a component linked to the expected old-age pension benefits in sending and receiving countries in two cases: when the pension system rules are known, and when there is a risk of the pension systems reforms. The results indicate that when individuals fail to take future pension wealth into account, they can make sub-optimal migration decisions.

Individual Social Captial and Migration

This paper determines how individual, relative to community social capital affects individual migration decisions. We make use of non-public data from the Social Capital Community Benchmark Survey to predict multi-dimensional social capital for observations in the Current Population Survey. We find evidence that individuals are much less likely to have moved to a community with average social capital levels lower than their own and that higher levels of community social capital act as positive pull-factor amenities. The importance of that amenity differs across urban/rural locations. We also confirm that higher individual social capital is a negative predictor of migration.

A demographic factor as a determinant of migration: what is the effect of sibship size on migration decisions?

AbstractDeveloping countries often lack an adequate social security system, and elderly parents rely heavily on their children for support. Aging populations and low-fertility rates are an emerging trend in developing countries. In this paper, we examine the effects of sibship size on individuals' internal migration decisions in China. We find that the number of siblings has a positive effect on individual migration decisions, but this effect is non-linear and marginally increasing. Second, we find that having brothers has a more significant effect on migration decisions than having sisters. Finally, although of different magnitudes, the effects are persistent across genders, Hukou status, and education levels.

Drivers of variation in migration behavior for a linked population of long-distance migratory passerine

AbstractDespite advances in tracking technologies, migration strategies remain poorly studied for many small-bodied passerines. Understanding variation within a migration strategy is important as variation impacts a population’s resilience to environmental change. Timing, pathway, and stopovers vary based on intrinsic and extrinsic factors that impact individual migration decisions and capacity. Here, we studied drivers of variation in migration across a linked population of Golden-winged Warbler (Vermivora chrysoptera) using data from 37 light-level geolocators. We tested if behaviors vary in response to extrinsic factors: season, year, and proximity to a large geographic barrier—the Gulf of Mexico—and intrinsic factors: age and wing chord. Spring migration was nearly twice as fast as fall migration, with tightly correlated arrival and departure dates that were consistent among years, in contrast to no correlation or consistency in fall. This aligns with predictions for selection to minimize time spent migrating in spring and a relaxation of that pressure in fall. Twenty-nine birds staged for multiple days (mean: 7.5, SE: 0.6) in stopover habitats before crossing the Gulf of Mexico in spring, but 6 individuals overwintering closer to the Gulf coast forewent the stopover and completed migration 8 days faster. These findings suggest birds capable of crossing the Gulf without a stopover may experience a selective advantage by minimizing total migration time. After crossing the Gulf, individuals reduced travel speed and stopover duration, indicating constraints on movement differ before and after the barrier. Wing chord, but not age, positively predicted the total distance and duration of migration, and neither varied with timing, suggesting migration distance impacts morphology, but strategies do not vary with age. Ultimately, we find undescribed stopover locations south of the Gulf are important for most of the population, while high variation in migration behaviors suggest potential resilience to changing environmental conditions.Causantes de variación en el comportamiento migratorio para una población vinculada de un paseriforme migratorio de larga distancia

Stark Choices: Work-Family Tradeoffs among Migrant Women and Men in Urban China

China’s so-called floating population of rural-urban labor migrants includes rising numbers of couples and families migrating together. Labor market outcomes may differ for migrant men and women, in part due to family obligations, but few recent studies have investigated this possibility. This paper focuses on the relationship of labor outcomes with family obligations among migrant men and women and considers whether this relationship differs among those with higher and lower earnings potential. We perform nested logit models of employment status and ordinary least square regression analyses of income, using a nationally representative survey collected in 2013. For migrant women, childcare responsibilities are positively associated with unemployment and negatively correlated with income. In contrast, for migrant men, being coresident with children has no bearing on probability of being unemployed and is sometimes positively associated with income. Further, the “motherhood penalty” in income is most pronounced among migrant women with the least education. Results illustrate the embeddedness of individual migration decisions and outcomes within families. Findings also highlight a stark choice facing many migrant women: between earning for their children and living with them.

Multilevel multinomial logit model to study individual migration decision in Viet Nam

In this paper we study the impact of relevant factors, such as individual characteristics, wages, living areas, on individual migration decisions. We have been using data from Labor Force Survey 2014 from Genaral Statistics Office of Vietnam (LFS 2014). We are going to evaluate how these above factors affect the status of "short-term migration" and "long-term migration" compared to "nonmigration". The well-known model in this field is the multinomial logistic model. However, the multinomial logistic model does not control the latent factors that have different effects on migration decision. This would result that the estimated coefficients of the variables would no longer be reliable (biased estimates due to lack of important variables). Hence, we have selected a multilevel multinomial logistic model. The levels we choose to control latent factors are province and region levels. As the results, the potential factors of different provinces and regions show different impacts on migration decisions. To sum up, a multilevel multinomial logistic model gives more reliable estimates, so it is more suitable for migration analysis compared to conventional multinomial logistic model.

Intra-European migration decisions and welfare systems: the missing life course link

ABSTRACTWelfare systems are often perceived as key for migration decisions. Yet traditional international migration theories usually include this factor as rather static in nature and do not acknowledge the dynamic interaction with the individual life course. This is unfortunate, as the impact of macro-level circumstances on individual migration decisions may vary over a person's life, particularly for factors that are intrinsically connected to the life course, as is the case with the welfare system. In this study, we propose an innovative conceptual model which fruitfully combines insights from migration theories with principles of the life course approach. Using qualitative interview data from 36 European citizens born in Poland, Spain and the UK and residing in the Netherlands, we investigated how welfare systems are perceived and experienced at the individual level, and how these perceptions, knowledge and practices may enter migration decisions. Our study empirically underpins the main premise of the theoretical model that migration decisions and the factors shaping them should be explained as connected through the life course. The proposed conceptual model is suitable to explain the influence of welfare systems on migration decisions, but also that of other structural factors.

Trends in African Migration to Europe: Drivers Beyond Economic Motivations

The current migration and refugee crisis in Europe requires an understanding of the different migration drivers beyond the well-known economic determinants. In this article, we view migration from ...

Trends in African Migration to Europe: Drivers Beyond Economic Motivations

The current migration and refugee crisis in Europe requires an understanding of the different migration drivers beyond the well-known economic determinants. In this article, we view migration from a broader human security perspective and analyze the determinants of regular and asylum seeker migration flows from Africa to Europe for the period 1990 to 2014. Our results show that, in addition to economic determinants, a combination of push and pull factors influences migration decisions of individuals. In particular, rising political persecution, human rights violations, ethnic tensions, political instability, and civil conflicts in African source countries are all significantly associated with increased migration flows into European destination countries. Therefore, our results underscore the need for the European Union and European countries to collaborate with the source countries, not only in terms of supporting economic development in the source countries but also in promoting human security: human rights, democracy, peace, and social stability.