Midwest Independent System Operator Research Articles

Opportunities and Challenges in Wind Energy

Wind energy increasingly plays a crucial role in replacing existing systems based on fossil fuels and nuclear generators. However, skepticism about the technological feasibility, economy of scale, and operational profitability prevails. The paper aims to fill this gap by analyzing the affordability of wind energy and by exploring the optimization issue incurring during the integration process of the micro electricity grid. Focusing on locational marginal pricing (LMP) and Midwest independent system operator (MISO) data between January 2014 and December 2020, the authors find wind power generation helps decrease the system energy price after control the effect of gas price. Further, the model captures the important seasonal and uncertain characteristics of power generation and consumption over the years. They also identify and discuss the bottleneck issues of the MISO power grids. These findings provide insights into affordability and technologic integration for long-term strategic planning on green energy including pricing, seasonality, dispatch, and reliability issues.

Opportunities and Challenges in Wind Energy

Wind energy increasingly plays a crucial role in replacing existing systems based on fossil fuels and nuclear generators. However, skepticism about the technological feasibility, economy of scale, operational profitability prevails. Our paper aims to fill this gap by analyzing the affordability of wind energy and by exploring the optimization issue incurring during the integration process of the micro electricity grid. Focusing on Locational Marginal Pricing (LMP) and Midwest Independent System Operator (MISO) data between January 2014 and December 2020, we find wind power generation helps decrease the system energy price after control the effect of gas price. Further, our model captures the important seasonal and uncertain characteristics of power generation and consumption over the years. We also identify and discuss the bottleneck issues of the MISO power grids. These findings provide insights into affordability and technologic integration for long-term strategic planning on green energy including pricing, seasonality, dispatch, and reliability issues.

An Empirical Investigation of Speculation in the MISO Financial Transmission Rights Auction Market

Even with conservative assumptions, a statistical model indicates that speculators account for a significant share of transactions and profits in the Midwest Independent System Operator FTR auction market. While the large speculator profits are potentially concerning, the study also lends some credence to the argument that speculators confer useful liquidity benefits.

Issues in the determination of the optimal portfolio of electricity supply options

In recent years a growing amount of attention has been focused on the need to develop a cost-effective portfolio of electricity supply options that provides society with a measure of protection from such factors as fuel price volatility and supply interruptions. A number of strategies, including portfolio theory, real options theory, and different measures of diversity have been suggested. In this paper we begin by first considering how we might characterize an optimal portfolio of supply options and identify a number of constraints that must be satisfied as part of the optimization process. We then review the strengths and limitations of each approach listed above. The results of our review lead us to conclude that, of the strategies we consider, using the concept of diversity to assess the viability of an electricity supply portfolio is most appropriate. We then provide an example of how a particular measure of diversity, the Shannon–Weiner Index, can be used to assess the diversity of the electricity supply portfolio in the state of Illinois, the region served by the Midwest Independent System Operator (MISO), and the continental United States.

Fostering economic demand response in the Midwest ISO☆

The Midwest Independent System Operator (MISO) runs the power grid in 14 states and one Canadian province and has a peak demand of some 116,000 MW. Its operational area is richly supplied with reliability-triggered demand response programs such as direct load control of residential appliances and curtailable/interruptible rates for commercial and industrial customers. However, economic demand response programs are lacking. This paper discusses three different ways in which such programs can be introduced in the wholesale energy markets run by MISO. These include, first, an approach in which utilities and load serving entities move retail customers to dynamic pricing and other time-based pricing rates; second, an approach in which these same entities and possibly third-parties bid price responsive demand curves into the wholesale market; and third, an approach in which demand response is bid as a supply resource into the wholesale market.

Derivation of locational marginal prices for restructured wholesale power markets

Although locational marginal pricing (LMP) plays an important role in many restructured wholesale power markets, the detailed derivation of LMP as it is actually used in industrial practice is not readily available. This lack of transparency greatly hinders the efforts of researchers to evaluate the performance of these markets. In this paper, different alternating current and direct current optimal power flow models are presented to help us understand the derivation of LMP. As a byproduct of this analysis, we are able to provide a rigorous explanation of the basic LMP and LMP-decomposition formulas (neglecting real power losses) that are presented without derivation in the business practice manuals of the US Midwest Independent System Operator.

Short term forecasting of electricity prices for MISO hubs: Evidence from ARIMA-EGARCH models

This study estimates three time series models (ARIMA, ARIMA-EGARCH, and ARIMA-EGARCH-M) for hourly real time electricity prices for each of the five hubs of the Midwest Independent System Operator (MISO) and examines the in- and out-of-sample forecasting performance of the respective models. The results from the ARIMA models reveal the presence of autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity. Recognizing the possibility of asymmetric time-varying volatility, the EGARCH specification for the variance equation demonstrates the presence of an inverse leverage effect in electricity prices for each hub. With respect to forecasts, no one model clearly dominates the others in terms of in-sample forecasting performance based on four forecast evaluation statistics. However, the ARIMA-EGARCH-M model outperforms the other models (Michigan hub is the exception) in terms of the out-of-sample forecasting performance.

Returns to Individual Traders of Futures: Aggregate Results

By means of a data set previously unavailable for academic research, actual trading histories of individual futures traders are examined. With this more detailed data, the author is able to (1) test the risk/return hypothesis directly; (2) include a much larger segment of the market than before; and (3) use actual instead of hypothetical t rading strategies. It is shown that the commercial (hedging) traders are most profitable, while noncommercial (speculative) traders earn n egative or zero profits. Because speculators are not receiving reward s for the risks they willingly absorb, the theory of normal backwarda tion and its extension can be rejected. Copyright 1987 by University of Chicago Press.