Midterm Congressional Elections Research Articles

Editor’s Introduction: Special Issue on the 2022 Midterm Congressional Election

Editor’s Introduction: Special Issue on the 2022 Midterm Congressional Election

Midterm. Specyfika wyborów do Kongresu USA w środku prezydenckiej kadencji

The article analyzes main features of congressional midterm elections in the United States. It addresses the issues of why presidential party tends to lose seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, how the results of midterm congressional elections determine the afterwards political process and what are the differences between campaigning in the presidential and midterm electoral cycles. The paper also reflects on the 2018 midterm elections, discussing what type of midterm election models – normal, preparatory, calibrating or innovative – the 2018 midterm fits best.

Bill Clinton, Republican Strategy, and the 1994 Elections: How Midterms Become Referenda on the President

The surprising 1994 midterm congressional election gave Republicans control of the House of Representatives for the first time in four decades and offers an opportunity to study the dynamics of a referendum on the president. District-level contextual data on Republicans’ anti-Clinton campaign themes are used to demonstrate the dynamic of creating a presidential referendum in a midterm election. Making President Clinton a focus of the campaign within the constituency decreased the probability of an individual voter casting a ballot for the Democratic congressional candidate, heightened the impact of Clinton’s popularity on individual vote choice; and decreased the aggregate vote percentages for the Democratic candidates. It is unmistakable that highlighting the president’s job performance and his policies at the district level transformed the midterm congressional election into a presidential referendum.

Explaining and Predicting Midterm Congressional Election Outcomes: Factoring in Opposition Party Strategy

AbstractMidterm congressional elections are referenda on the president not by happenstance but by design, as the opposition party and its candidates attack the administration when political conditions provide the opportunity. Models for explaining and predicting the number of seats won by the president’s party incorporating the number of seats held before the election, prior election results, change in status of the economy, and presidential evaluation data conditioned by strategy of the opposition party are presented. These models improve upon traditional models of midterm election explanations and predictions, providing parsimonious, theory-driven, and accurate models of midterm election outcomes.

Southeast Asia's Troubling Elections: Duterte Versus the Rule of Law

Liberal democracy in the Philippines is under stress, and the midterm congressional elections on 13 May 2019 did little to temper fears of an imminent turn to illiberalism. Buoyed by the popularity of President Rodrigo Duterte, his allies have gained effective control of both houses of Congress as well as other major institutions. This article argues that the current efforts to undermine the Philippines' post-1987 constitutional order are unprecedented—and many of these efforts involve nominally legal means such as acts of Congress and threats of impeachment and broad constitutional change. Southeast Asia's oldest democracy is dying not only by coercion, but also by law.

Exploring the Networks of News Production: Frame Building and Source Use During the 2014 U.S. Midterm Elections

This study of the 2014 U.S. midterm congressional elections examined whether connections across sources within newspaper coverage predicted framing outcomes. Conceptualized as an aspect of frame building, symbolic source networks within articles were examined using social network analysis and multilevel modeling. Results suggest network density within a given article predicted the likelihood that a source was linked to the strategic game frame and issue frame in election coverage. By nesting sources within networks, this study extends our understanding of frame building and collective sense-making in politics. It also demonstrates the utility of social network concepts and measures for research on news production.

The Seats-in-Trouble Forecasts of the 2018 Midterm Congressional Elections

The Seats-in-Trouble Forecasts of the 2018 Midterm Congressional Elections

TRANSATLANTIC TWILIGHT? THE IMPACT OF THE MUELLER INVESTIGATION ON US-EUROPE RELATIONS

The Mueller investigation into Russian interference in the US 2016 Presidential election has dogged the Trump administration, almost from the beginning of its time in office. The impact of the probe is widespread and affecting the United States in myriad ways both domestically and in foreign policy. We contend that, regarding US-European relations, the Mueller investigation is hastening two broad trends. Firstly, the continuing revelations are pushing the traditional US foreign policy establishment closer towards Europe. Secondly, and simultaneously, these revelations, as well as the continued actions of the President himself, are acting as a source of tension in US-European relations that are pushing European elites into awkward policy choices. The Mueller investigation has uncovered an ill-defined Russian strategy of sowing discord during the 2016 election cycle, matching other initiatives in Europe itself. In the rhetoric of prominent American politicians, it has succeeded. Donald Trump has been loath - unlike his verboseness towards the majority of the US's traditional allies - to criticise the Russian state. Meanwhile, the US Congress has tightened sanctions against Russia. While Trump has distanced himself from the European Union on issues such as the Paris Agreement on Climate Change and the Iranian Nuclear Deal, other parts of the US polity – from city to mayors to state governors and Congress itself – have sought to reinforce relationships with European countries. The forthcoming 2018 midterm Congressional elections are likely to result in an exacerbation of the process, particularly if there are further allegations of Russian cyber-attacks. The impact on European leaders is varied. Whereas the German government wants to push ahead with a new gas pipeline, which would increase reliance on Russian energy supplies, the EU has thus far held firm over sanctions and presented a united front denouncing the alleged Russian state-sponsored use of a nerve agent in Britain. This paper will aim to explore the impact of the Mueller investigation on these two trends and the effect on wider US-European relations.

Measuring Preferences for Divided Government: Some Americans Want Divided Government and Vote to Create It

Tests of theories of the electoral origins of divided government hinge on the proper measurement of voter preferences for divided government. Deriving preferences for divided government from voters’ ideological positions or responses to the standard American National Election Studies question inflates estimates of the proportion of people who prefer divided government. We present two alternative survey measures of preferences for divided government and evaluate the measures across multiple surveys. We find that the percentage of voters who prefer divided government is smaller than previous studies suggest. Voters who prefer divided government according to the new measures are significantly more likely than other voters to vote in ways that create divided government in both presidential year and midterm congressional elections.

An Econometric Evaluation of Competing Explanations for the Midterm Gap

This paper provides a unified theoretical and empirical analysis of three longstanding explanations for the consistent loss of support for the President’s party in midterm Congressional elections: (1) a Presidential penalty, defined as a preference for supporting the opposition during midterm years, (2) a surge and decline in voter turnout, and (3) a reversion to the mean in voter ideology. To quantify the contribution of each of these factors, we build an econometric model in which voters jointly choose whether or not to participate and which party to support in both House and Presidential elections. Estimated using ANES data from both Presidential and midterm years, the model can fully explain the observed midterm gaps, and counterfactual simulations demonstrate that each factor makes a sizable contribution towards the midterm gap, with the Presidential penalty playing the largest role.

El uso estratégico de la publicidad política de ataque en la elección federal intermedia de 2015 en México

In professionalized election campaigns, political parties and/or candidates present their policy proposals to the electorate and seek to maximize votes, primarily, through media appeals. The purpose of this paper is to content-analyze all media appeals (30 second spots) broadcasted by Mexican political parties during the 2015 mid-term congressional elections, in order to identify their campaign strategies. The results show an increasing level of professionalization and centralization of media-based electoral strategies. They also show that attack ads were a central component of parties and candidates media strategies during the campaign.

Presidents and Terminal Logic Behavior: Term Limits and Executive Action in the United States, Brazil and Argentina. By Genevieve M. Kehoe. College Station: Texas A&M University Press, 2014. 231 pp.

Presidents and Terminal Logic Behavior: Term Limits and Executive Action in the United States, Brazil and Argentina. By Genevieve M. Kehoe. College Station: Texas A&M University Press, 2014. 231 pp. Final-term presidents, writes Genevieve M. Kehoe, should more properly be termed 'soaring eagles' rather than 'lame ducks (p. 1). Moreover, she concludes, Everything points to the conclusion that in Obama we have the making of soaring eagle--not lame duck. Indeed, an end-of-tenure Obama may be the most aggressive end-of-tenure president that we have seen (p. 171). This is bold study that attempts to assess the incentives motivating in their last legacy-enhancing months in office. The author claims that significant policy decisions are pushed, especially in presidential executive orders and similar decrees, because presidents are free from re-election constraints and enthused by legacy to pursue bold projects--and they have the power to make it happen (p.1). This book challenges conventional thinking. Most presidency analysts believe that, with few exceptions, lose political capital and popular support as their term winds down. Advisors leave, people pay even less attention to what are saying, and Congress and the courts are more likely to be assertive. This seems to be the case for the one-termers, such as Herbert Hoover, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, and George H. W. Bush, as well as for those in second terms, such as Harry Truman, Dwight D. Eisenhower, Bill Clinton, and George W. Bush. In midterm congressional elections, most candidates in competitive races do not want their party's president to come and campaign with them. This was true for Presidents Lyndon Johnson in 1966, Ford in 1974, Bush in 2006, and Barack Obama in 2014. Ronald Reagan and Clinton were somewhat more popular in their second terms. But, with the one exception of Clinton's second midterm, there is remarkable pattern of what can be called a sixth-year pushback--in which the opposition party enjoys significant congressional and state political victories. (The midterm elections of 1966, 1974, 2006, and 2014 are illustrative.) These realities are generally thought to constrain rather than empower end-of-tenure presidents. Kehoe is motivated to study near the end of their terms because of concern that the two-term limit may encourage overreach or even irresponsible behavior. She cites the well-known literature about the perils of presidential versus parliamentary political regimes, yet does not develop this line of reasoning. Near the end of the book, she mentions favorably that some political scientists in the United States view Mexico's executive term as ideal or 'more perfect' than the U.S. executive term structure (p. 169). She footnotes Larry Sabato as her single source (A More Perfect Constitution: Why the Constitution Must Be Revised: Ideas to Inspire New Generation [Walker and Company, 2007]). …

The Seats-in-Trouble Forecast of the 2014 Midterm Congressional Elections

The Seats-in-Trouble Forecast of the 2014 Midterm Congressional Elections

Assessing the 2012 U.S. Presidential Election

Like all but three presidents since the end of the Second World War, Barack Obama was reelected in 2012. (1) Obama triumphed over Republican challenger Mitt Romney by 332-206 in the Electoral College and by 51 to 47% in the national popular vote. Obama secured a second term with fewer electoral votes and fewer popular votes than he had accrued in the 2008 election cycle, becoming only the second Democrat in U.S. history, the other being Franklin Roosevelt, to win a majority of the popular vote more than once. Most preelection polls showed modest advantages for Obama (relative to Romney) over the course of the campaign, but the contest between the two contenders, at least according to preelection polls that registered voter preferences, remained close throughout (Panagopoulos 2013). The president faced several headwinds in his reelection quest. First, despite signs of economic recovery from the severe recession that began in 2008, the economy remained fragile. Economic growth was anemic. During 2009, gross domestic product (GDP) growth fell by 2.3% but only rebounded in 2010 and 2011 by 2.5% and 1.8%, respectively. This compares with an average GDP growth rate of 3.2% for all years from 1946 through 2011. (2) Unemployment tells a similar story. The unemployment rate stood at 8.2% in January 2012, about 2.4 percentage points higher than the average for all months from 1948 through 2011, according to data provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. (3) Thus, on the economic front, often among the first factors that analysts look at in predicting and accounting for election outcomes, Barack Obama did not appear an overly successful steward. And the public seemed to agree that the president's economic leadership was lackluster. From mid-May 2009 onward, Gallup polls showed more voters disapproved of the president's handling of the economy than approved. (4) But elections are not only about economics. The passage of other important legislation may affect a president's reelection prospects, which is one reason Paul Light (1982), among others, urges presidents to hit the ground running to secure major legislative accomplishments. In the legislative domain, Obama was also challenged. His signature piece of domestic legislation, health care reform (or so-called Obamacare), was controversial. Early in the debate on health care reform, pluralities of voters disapproved of the president's job in handling the issue according to Gallup. Over the first six months of 2012, well into the reelection season, disapproval on health care ran ahead of approval by 15-25 percentage points in almost all Gallup polls. (5) Additionally, the passage of Obamacare contributed to a major voter backlash against the administration and to the emergence of the Tea Party, which led to a resounding election defeat for the Democrats in the 2010 midterm congressional elections. Looking at general indicators of public opinion would not necessarily indicate that Obama would be a formidable competitor. His overall job disapproval ratings tended to outpace his approval numbers by about two percentage points on average during the first six months of 2012, although his favorability ratings were stronger with about a four percentage-point edge for favorable versus unfavorable evaluations. Such modest favorability advantages do not portend a strong electoral showing. Despite these challenges for Obama, elections are contests between two candidates. In some respects, Obama likely benefitted from disarray and other developments in the GOP. First, Romney was not the darling of the Republican right wing, the strongest faction within the party. Romney had to contest for the nomination, along with other contenders including former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich, former Pennsylvania U.S. Senator Rick Santorum, and Texas Governor Rick Perry, who, at one point or another were frontrunners in the GOP field. Although Romney emerged without clear evidence that the primaries divided the party, Obama appeared to have more enthusiastic backing from Democrats than Romney had among Republicans. …

Abandoning American neutrality: Woodrow Wilson and the beginning of the Great War, August 1914-December 1915

1. An Awful Cataclysm: British War Aims, Neutral Rights at Sea, and Early US Mediation Efforts, July 1914-September 1914 2. An Exceedingly Tender Spot: Conclusion of the Declaration of London Debate, Britain's Revised Order in Council, and the US Mid-Term Congressional Elections, October 1914-November 1914 3. At Peace With the World: Developing Anglo-American Munitions Trade and US Efforts to Maintain the Spirit of Neutrality, October 1914-December 1914 4. Friend to All of Them: Munitions Bills, A Government Owned Merchant Marine and Restarting Talks of Mediation, December 1914-January 1915 5. Twittering of a Sparrow: House's Second Mission to Europe, German Submarines, Strict Accountability, and the Tightening of the Allied Blockade, February 1915-April 1915 6. The Palliations of Piracy: Submarine Crisis, Shell Shortages, and the Failure of House's Second Mission to Europe, April 1915-June 1915 7. The Shadow of War: Britain's Economic Emergency, US Distrust of Germany, the New Course for U.S. Policy toward the Belligerents, June 1915-August 1915 8. He Has Thus Crossed the Rubicon: Conclusion of the Arabic Crisis, German Sabotage, and Clandestine US Mediation Efforts, September 1915-December 1915

The Republican Wave of 2014: The Continuity of the 2012 and 2014 Elections

AbstractThis article examines the influences on the 2014 midterm congressional elections. The election was a decisive victory for the Republican Party. Republicans picked up nine Senate seats and with them control of the Senate. They also gained thirteen House seats, extending their House majority to its largest size in over 80 years. Although Republican seat gains can be explained at one level by the normal processes of surge and decline plus the midterm as a referendum on the performance of the presidential party, this does not explain why the midterm referendum was so lopsidedly against the Democrats that it created a Republican wave in the election. This analysis traces the reasons for the Democrats’ “shellacking” to the 2012 presidential election. The reason for President Obama’s reelection in 2012 has been misinterpreted as an ideological triumph or as a positive referendum on the president’s job performance. Neither was the case. As a first party-term incumbent, President Obama was given additional time to revive the weak economy that he inherited from President Bush. The 2012 referendum on the president’s performance was a suspended referendum, not a vote of confidence. The analysis shows that the economy was weak by historical standards in 2012 and remained so in 2014 and that voters realized that the economy was weak in 2012 and continued to believe so in 2014. The crucial political difference was that voters blamed former President Bush in 2012, but held the Democrats responsible in 2014.

Evidential embellishment in political debates during US campaigns

In politics, one area where both incumbents and challengers can be seen exhibiting similar verbal behavior is during debates. In their attempts to depict an opponent as unqualified for the job, politicians must respond to claims they make against their opponents by providing evidence through the means of first- or secondhand knowledge about the claim; the encoding of this evidence and the degree to which they distance themselves from that knowledge is known as evidentiality. This paper explores evidentiality as exhibited by politicians in the 2010 US Midterm Congressional Elections debates. Starting with Chafe's (1986) work on evidential analysis, the features investigated are observed through the lens of critical discourse analysis using the Multilayered Model of Context (Berlin 2007, 2011). Evidential markers (i.e., evidentials) were coded for type and analyzed in their pragmatic functions. Findings suggest that politicians, as a group, tend to use those forms of evidentials that attenuate claims less frequently while they tend to use those forms that boost claims more frequently. Furthermore, face-to-face debates inhibit the use of more reliable evidential encoding as politicians being verbally attacked are available to counter opponents' claims and the attackers are called on to respond to their accusations.

2012 Presidential and Congressional Elections

After significant gains in the 2010 midterm congressional elections, along with succeeding in winning many state and local races, the Republican establishment was waiting for the 2012 presidential and congressional elections with high and justified hopes. As the U.S. economic situation had not recovered the way President Obama had expected, which translated into his rather moderate job approval ratings, Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney was expected to make Barack Obama a one‑term president. However, as in contemporary presidential campaigns, electoral context alone seems not to be enough to claim the presidency, and other factors intervened which ensured the re‑election of the 44th president of the United States. At the same time, while the same electoral context gave Democrats more votes in congressional elections, somehow it did not give them the majority in the House of Representatives, guaranteeing the status quo from the 2010 cycle. In this paper, the author identifies the main forces behind the results of both presidential and congressional 2012 elections, arguing that while context was vital for the conducting of the campaign, other factors contributed to the contemporary, post‑2012 American political scene. What is important is that the so‑called structural factors in the presidential and congressional election seem likely to make this scene stagnate for many years to come.

Partisan asymmetries in online political activity

We examine partisan differences in the behavior, communication patterns and social interactions of more than 18,000 politically-active Twitter users to produce evidence that points to changing levels of partisan engagement with the American online political landscape. Analysis of a network defined by the communication activity of these users in proximity to the 2010 midterm congressional elections reveals a highly segregated, well clustered partisan community structure. Using cluster membership as a high-fidelity (87% accuracy) proxy for political affiliation, we characterize a wide range of differences in the behavior, communication and social connectivity of left- and right-leaning Twitter users. We find that in contrast to the online political dynamics of the 2008 campaign, right-leaning Twitter users exhibit greater levels of political activity, a more tightly interconnected social structure, and a communication network topology that facilitates the rapid and broad dissemination of political information.

When good evidence goes bad: The weak evidence effect in judgment and decision-making

An indispensable principle of rational thought is that positive evidence should increase belief. In this paper, we demonstrate that people routinely violate this principle when predicting an outcome from a weak cause. In Experiment 1 participants given weak positive evidence judged outcomes of public policy initiatives to be less likely than participants given no evidence, even though the evidence was separately judged to be supportive. Experiment 2 ruled out a pragmatic explanation of the result, that the weak evidence implies the absence of stronger evidence. In Experiment 3, weak positive evidence made people less likely to gamble on the outcome of the 2010 United States mid-term Congressional election. Experiments 4 and 5 replicated these findings with everyday causal scenarios. We argue that this “weak evidence effect” arises because people focus disproportionately on the mentioned weak cause and fail to think about alternative causes.