Midlatitude Domains Research Articles

A Machine‐Learning‐Assisted Stochastic Cloud Population Model as a Parameterization of Cumulus Convection

AbstractA machine‐learning‐assisted stochastic cloud population model is coupled with the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to represent fluctuations in the cloud‐base mass flux associated with the life cycles and interactions among cumulus convection cells. In this cloud population model, the size distribution and the associated cloud‐base mass flux of the convective cells are related to their previous state and to the change in the total convective area via a transition function. The convective area tendency in turn is assumed to depend on the cloud‐base mass flux that is resolved by the host WRF model. The transition function is represented by a single hidden‐layer neural network trained by the evolution of convective cell size distributions in a 1‐km grid‐spacing WRF simulation run over the Australian Monsoon region. At every grid point of the host model, the cloud population model predicts the cell size and cloud‐base mass flux distributions from which a random sample of cells is fed to an entraining parcel model that calculates precipitation as well as the associated liquid water potential temperature and total moisture tendencies. These tendencies are averaged over the cells and provided to the host model. Several regional simulations are performed over tropical and midlatitude domains to test this as a potential approach to scale‐aware parameterization. It is shown that such an approach could be a new promising path to simulating realistic precipitation statistics and propagation of precipitation associated with the Madden‐Julian Oscillation while maintaining realistic depictions of the diurnal cycle over both land and ocean.

BARRA v1.0: kilometre-scale downscaling of an Australian regional atmospheric reanalysis over four midlatitude domains

Abstract. Regional reanalyses provide a dynamically consistent recreation of past weather observations at scales useful for local-scale environmental applications. The development of convection-permitting models (CPMs) in numerical weather prediction has facilitated the creation of kilometre-scale (1–4 km) regional reanalysis and climate projections. The Bureau of Meteorology Atmospheric high-resolution Regional Reanalysis for Australia (BARRA) also aims to realize the benefits of these high-resolution models over Australian sub-regions for applications such as fire danger research by nesting them in BARRA's 12 km regional reanalysis (BARRA-R). Four midlatitude sub-regions are centred on Perth in Western Australia, Adelaide in South Australia, Sydney in New South Wales (NSW), and Tasmania. The resulting 29-year 1.5 km downscaled reanalyses (BARRA-C) are assessed for their added skill over BARRA-R and global reanalyses for near-surface parameters (temperature, wind, and precipitation) at observation locations and against independent 5 km gridded analyses. BARRA-C demonstrates better agreement with point observations for temperature and wind, particularly in topographically complex regions and coastal regions. BARRA-C also improves upon BARRA-R in terms of the intensity and timing of precipitation during the thunderstorm seasons in NSW and spatial patterns of sub-daily rain fields during storm events. BARRA-C reflects known issues of CPMs: overestimation of heavy rain rates and rain cells, as well as underestimation of light rain occurrence. As a hindcast-only system, BARRA-C largely inherits the domain-averaged bias pattern from BARRA-R but does produce different climatological extremes for temperature and precipitation. An added-value analysis of temperature and precipitation extremes shows that BARRA-C provides additional skill over BARRA-R when compared to gridded observations. The spatial patterns of BARRA-C warm temperature extremes and wet precipitation extremes are more highly correlated with observations. BARRA-C adds value in the representation of the spatial pattern of cold extremes over coastal regions but remains biased in terms of magnitude.

Meridional dynamics of grounded abyssal water masses on a sloping bottom in a mid-latitude -plane

Observations, numerical simulations and theoretical scaling arguments suggest that in mid-latitudes, away from the source regions and the equator, the meridional transport of abyssal water masses along a continental slope corresponds to planetary geostrophic flows that are gravity- or density-driven and topographically steered. We investigate these dynamics using a nonlinear reduced-gravity model that can describe grounded abyssal meridional flow over sloping topography that crosses the planetary vorticity gradient. Exact nonlinear steady and time-dependent solutions are obtained. The general steady theory is illustrated for a non-parallel equatorward flow that possesses a single along-slope grounding along the upslope flank of the current (complementing previous work). Four specific nonlinear time-dependent solutions are described. Two initial-value problems are solved exactly. The first initial configuration corresponds to an equatorward abyssal flow that has no cross-slope shear in the along-slope velocity and possesses a single grounding along the upslope flank of the current. The nonlinear time-dependent evolution of this initial current into a non-parallel shear flow is described. The second initial condition corresponds to an isolated radially symmetric grounded abyssal pool or dome. The nonlinear time-dependent evolution of this abyssal dome, which propagates equatorward with unsteady along- and cross-slope velocities while deforming into an elliptically shaped abyssal dome with $\unicode[STIX]{x1D6FD}$-induced diminishing height, is described. Finally, the nonlinear time-dependent boundary-value problem can be solved exactly in which the in-flow boundary condition on the poleward boundary of the mid-latitude domain corresponds to a time-dependent abyssal current with both an upslope and downslope grounding. Two specific time-dependent boundary conditions are examined. The first corresponds to a time-limited surge in the equatorward volume transport in the abyssal current along the poleward boundary. The second configuration corresponds to the nonlinear evolution of a finite-amplitude downslope plume or loop that forms in the abyssal current that is reminiscent of those seen in baroclinic instability simulations.

Community‐wide validation of geospace model local K‐index predictions to support model transition to operations

AbstractWe present the latest result of a community‐wide space weather model validation effort coordinated among the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), model developers, and the broader science community. Validation of geospace models is a critical activity for both building confidence in the science results produced by the models and in assessing the suitability of the models for transition to operations. Indeed, a primary motivation of this work is supporting NOAA/SWPC's effort to select a model or models to be transitioned into operations. Our validation efforts focus on the ability of the models to reproduce a regional index of geomagnetic disturbance, the local K‐index. Our analysis includes six events representing a range of geomagnetic activity conditions and six geomagnetic observatories representing midlatitude and high‐latitude locations. Contingency tables, skill scores, and distribution metrics are used for the quantitative analysis of model performance. We consider model performance on an event‐by‐event basis, aggregated over events, at specific station locations, and separated into high‐latitude and midlatitude domains. A summary of results is presented in this report, and an online tool for detailed analysis is available at the CCMC.

중위도 기압골과 태풍 산바의 이동속도와의 상호작용에 대한 예측에서 모델 바이어스 경향분석

중위도 기압골과 태풍 이동속도와의 상호작용에 대한 예측에서 한국기상청 전구자료동화예측시스템(GDAPS) 모델 바이어스 경향을 알아보기 위해 태풍 산바 사례가 선정되었다. 이 연구는 태풍 분석 및 예측 시스템(TAPS) 및 기상정보시스템-3(COMIS-3)에 저장된 태풍자료로부터 2012년 9월 15일 00UTC로 초기화 된 한국 기상청 GDAPS 분석장과 예측장을 사용하였다. 먼저 해면기압장은 500 hPa 제트구역과 연관하여 중위도 하층 저기압이 발생됨을 보여주었다. 이후 태풍 산바가 중위도 지역으로 들어온 후, 태풍의 이동속도가 증가될 것이라 예측되었다. 특히, 태풍 산바가 9월 17일 00UTC와 06UTC에 전향을 할 시점에 태풍 산바는 중위도 기압골 전면에서 중위도 서풍대와 상호작용을 하였다. 반면, 기상청 GDAPS 해면기압 예측장은 하층 중위도 저기압의 강도를 분석장보다 약하게 예측하였다. 결국 태풍 산바의 이동속도에 영향을 주는 중위도 순환은 분석장보다 느리게 나타났다. 이 순환은 500 hPa에서 제트가 약화됨으로서 증명되었다. 이런 이유로, 기상청 GDAPS 예측장은 태풍 산바가 중위도 기압골과 상호작용함으로써 느린 이동속도의 바이어스를 나타내었다. Typhoon Sanba was selected for describing the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) Global Data Assimilation Prediction System (GDAPS) model bias tendency in forecast for the interaction between mid-latitude trough and movement speed of typhoon. We used the KMA GDAPS analyses and forecasts initiated 00 UTC 15 September 2012 from the historical typhoon record using Typhoon Analysis and Prediction System (TAPS) and Combined Meteorological Information System-3 (COMIS-3). Sea level pressure fields illustrated a development of the low level mid-latitude cyclogenesis in relation to Jet Maximum at 500 hPa. The study found that after Sanba entered the mid-latitude domain, its movement speed was forecast to be accelerated. Typically, Snaba interacted with mid-latitude westerlies at the front of mid-latitude trough. This event occurred when the Sanba was nearing recurvature at 00 and 06 UTC 17 September. The KMA GDAPS sea level pressure forecasts provided the low level mid-latitude cyclone that was weaker than what it actually analyzed in field. As a result, the mid-latitude circulations affecting on Sanba's movement speed was slower than what the KMA GDAPS actually analyzed in field. It was found that these circulations occurred due to the weak mid-tropospheric jet maximum at the 500 hPa. In conclusion, the KMA GDAPS forecast tends to slow a bias of slow movement speed when Sanba interacted with the mid-latitude trough.

Reproducible and Irreproducible Components in Ensemble Simulations with a Regional Climate Model

Abstract High-resolution limited-area models (LAMs) have been widely employed to downscale coarse-resolution climate simulations or objective analyses. The growing evidence that LAM climate statistics can be sensitive to initial conditions suggests that a deterministic verification of LAM solutions in terms of finescale atmospheric features might be misguided. In this study a 20-member ensemble of LAM integrations with perturbed initial conditions, driven by NCEP–NCAR reanalyses, is conducted for a summer season over a midlatitude domain. Ensemble simulations allow for the separation of the downscaled information in two parts: a unique, reproducible component associated with lateral-boundary and surface forcing, and an irreproducible component associated with internal variability. The partition in the reproducible and irreproducible components and their seasonal statistics is examined as a function of horizontal length scale, geographical position within the domain, height, and weather episodes during the season. The scale analysis of time-dependent model variables shows that, at scales smaller than a few hundred kilometers, the irreproducible component dominates, on average, the model solution, implying that the downscaled information at these scales is mainly in stochastic form. The constraint exerted by the surface forcing on the internal variability is weak. For seasonal averages, the reproducible component dominates at all scales, although for precipitation the reproducible and irreproducible components are of the same order of magnitude at scales smaller than 150 km. These results imply a need for a probabilistic approach to LAM climate simulations and their verification, especially for shorter integration times, from months to seasons.

A global study of nighttime midlatitude topside spread echoes

Range spreading is frequently evident in midlatitude topside ionograms from the ISS‐B satellite. These ionograms provide a geographically unbiased perspective for the first global investigation of nighttime spread echo events that focuses solely on the midlatitude domain. The topside echo occurrence probability data show significant longitudinal variations, along with very large winter/equinox asymmetries in several geographic regions. The spread echoes are divided into two types and found to have different geophysical dependences. Small‐scale events that appear as spreading in one or two consecutive ionograms have a marked seasonal dependence on magnetic declination and no obvious correlation with auroral indices. Larger‐scale events in which the spreading is observed over spatial domains of 1000 km or more have less dependence on magnetic declination but are anticorrelated with the AE index in periods 6–8 hours prior to their appearance. The declination dependence for the small‐scale events suggests that the irregularities are most prevalent when the E region conductivity is low at both ends of the flux tube. This in turn suggests that electric fields mapping from the E region up to F region altitudes are likely involved in their generation. The correlation of the larger‐scale events with depressed AE signatures suggests that traveling ionospheric disturbances caused by auroral heating are not the most likely cause of these large features at midlatitudes.

Imaging science at El Leoncito, Argentina

Abstract. Thermospheric and mesospheric structures are studied using an all-sky imager located at El Leoncito, Argentina (31.8° S, 69.3° W, –18° mag lat). This site has relatively high geographic latitude for a location under the crest of the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA), and thus observations can be used to study the intrusion of several equatorial processes into the midlatitude domain. In addition, it has a conjugate point close to the field of view of our companion imager at Arecibo, PR, allowing for the study of inter-hemispheric effects. Four types of phenomena were studied using 630.0 nm and 777.4 nm observations: (1) highly-structured airglow depletions associated with the Rayleigh-Taylor instability/equatorial spread-F (RTI/ESF) process, (2) brightness waves (BW) associated with the midnight temperature maximum (MTM), (3) strong airglow enhancements associated with the positive phase of ionospheric storms, and (4) simple (non-structured) bands of airglow depletions with characteristics matching a Perkins-like instability. Using 557.7 nm mesospheric observations, a fifth category of study deals with gravity waves probably generated by lower atmospheric disturbances, and mesospheric bores related to strong vertical temperature gradients. While ESF depletions and BW events are detected fairly frequently, the mid-latitude bands are not, and thus their successful imaging at El Leoncito offers the first example of the coupling from mid-latitudes to low-latitudes in the South American longitude sector. Preliminary results on these features are presented in this paper. Taken together, these five types of optical structures offer the opportunity to investigate coupling, both in altitude and latitude, of aeronomic processes at low latitudes in an under-sampled longitude sector in the Southern Hemisphere.

The Annual Cycle of the Axial Angular Momentum of the Atmosphere

Abstract Earlier analyses of the annual cycle of the axial angular momentum (AAM) are extended to include mass flows and vertical transports as observed, and to establish angular momentum budgets for various control volumes, using the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analyses (ERA) for the years 1979–92, transformed to height coordinates. In particular, the role of the torques is examined. The annual cycle of the zonally averaged angular momentum is large in the latitude belt 20° ⩽ |ϕ| ⩽ 45°, with little attenuation in the vertical up to a height of ∼12 km. The oscillation of the mass term (AAM due to the earth’s rotation) dominates in the lower troposphere, but that of the wind term (relative AAM) is more important elsewhere. The cycle of the friction torque as related to the trade winds prevails in the Tropics. Mountain torque and friction torque are equally important in the extratropical latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. The annual and the semiannual cycle of the global angular momentum are in good balance with the global mountain and friction torques. The addition of the global gravity wave torque destroys this agreement. The transports must be adjusted if budgets of domains of less than global extent are to be considered. Both a streamfunction, representing the nondivergent part of the fluxes, and a flux potential, describing the divergences/convergences, are determined. The streamfunction pattern mainly reflects the seasonal shift of the Hadley cell. The flux potential links the annual oscillations of the angular momentum with the torques. It is concluded that the interaction of the torques with the angular momentum is restricted to the lower troposphere, in particular, in the Tropics. The range of influence is deeper in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere, presumably because of the mountains. The angular momentum cycle in the upper troposphere and stratosphere is not affected by the torques and reflects interhemispheric flux patterns. Budgets for the polar as well as for the midlatitude domains show that fluxes in the stratosphere are important.

Mesoscale Background Error Covariances: Recent Results Obtained with the Limited-Area Model ALADIN over Morocco

Abstract This note presents recent results on the properties of background error covariances computed using the National Meteorological Center (now known as the National Centers for Environmental Prediction) method and applied to a mesoscale limited-area model. The error covariances are computed over a winter period for the Moroccan version of the ALADIN forecast system. The overall results compare well with previous outputs obtained with the same forecast model but on a typical midlatitude domain (viz., ALADIN-France). Thus, the climatological error statistics can be used with an equivalent efficiency in the frame of a 3DVAR analysis system over a wide range of low-latitude and midlatitude limited-area domains. Furthermore, the error statistics between the true forecast fields and the coupling fields for the same domain are compared. The coupling fields are provided by interpolation from the global ARPEGE model. The comparison gives insight into the range of scales over which ALADIN is building its own d...

Impact of analysis uncertainty upon regional atmospheric moisture flux

Horizontal fluxes of atmospheric water vapor are studied for summer months during 1989 and 1992 over North and South America and are based on analyses from European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, U.S. National Meteorological Center, and United Kingdom Meteorological Office. The calculations are performed over 20° × 20° box‐shaped midlatitude domains located to the east of the Rocky Mountains in North America and to the east of the Andes Mountains in South America. The fluxes are determined from operational center gridded analyses of wind and moisture. Differences in the monthly mean moisture flux divergence determined from these analyses are as large as 7 cm/month precipitable water equivalent over South America and 3 cm/month over North America. Gridded analyses at higher spatial and temporal resolution exhibit better agreement in the moisture budget study. However, significant discrepancies of the moisture flux divergence computed from different gridded analyses still exist. The conclusion is more pessimistic than Rasmusson's [1968] estimate based on station data. Further analysis reveals that the most significant sources of error result from model surface elevation fields, gaps in the data archive, and uncertainties in the wind and specific humidity analyses. Uncertainties in the wind analyses are the most important problem. The low‐level jets, in particular, are substantially different in the different data archives. Part of the reason for this may be due to the way the different analysis models parameterize physical processes affecting low‐level jets. The results support the inference that the noise/signal ratio of the moisture budget may be improved more rapidly by providing better wind observations and analyses than by providing better moisture data.