Middle Socio-demographic Index Research Articles

Global burden of HIV-negative multidrug- and extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis based on global burden of disease study 2021

BackgroundTuberculosis (TB), caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis, remains the second leading cause of death from a single infectious disease globally and poses a significant economic and clinical burden in the world in 2022. Of particular concern is the emergence of drug-resistant TB, accounting for 15%–20% of TB deaths. It is imperative to delve into the global trends of incidence and death rate for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) and extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis (XDR-TB), drawing upon the comprehensive Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 drug-resistant tuberculosis dataset. MethodsFrom the GBD 2021, data on incidence, prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and death of MDR-TB and XDR-TB from 1990 to 2021 were collected. We calculated the estimated annual percentage changes in age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) and age-standardized death rate (ASDR), segmented by age, sex, and Socio-demographic Index (SDI). The impacts of various risk factors on MDR-TB and XDR-TB were also analyzed. ResultsIn 2021, there were an estimated 443,680 population (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 259,196–766,545 population) incident cases of MDR-TB, and an estimated 106,818 population (95% UI: 41,612–211,854 population) death cases of MDR-TB, while there were an estimated 24,036 population (95% UI: 17,144–34,587 population) incident cases of XDR-TB and 7,946 population (95% UI: 3,326–14,859 population) death cases of XDR-TB. The incidence and death cases of MDR-TB were lowest in high SDI regions, whereas the incidence rates of XDR-TB in high-middle SDI regions were higher than those in middle SDI and high SDI regions. ConclusionThis study reported the disease burden of drug-resistant TB from 1990 to 2021. Until 2021, drug-resistant TB is still a serious problem in low SDI countries, especially for high-risk age populations with high-risk factors. Controlling drug-resistant TB requires effective control strategies and healthcare systems.

The global burden of disease attributable to high body mass index in 204 countries and territories: Findings from 1990 to 2019 and predictions to 2035.

Our study aims to provide an updated estimate of age- and sex-specific deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) associated with high body mass index (BMI) from 1990 to 2019 at the global, regional and national levels, and to forecast the global burden of disease attributed to high BMI from 2020 to 2035. We used the data for the number of deaths, DALYs, age-standardized rate (per 100 000 population), percentage change and population attributable fraction from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019) to examine the disease burden attributable to high BMI. We further applied an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to predict the disease burden for the period 2020-2035. From 1990 to 2019, the deaths and DALYs attributable to high BMI increased by 148% and 155.86% for men, and by 111.67% and 121.78% for women, respectively. In 2019, high BMI directly accounted for 8.52% [95% uncertainty intervals (UI) 0.05, 0.12] of all-cause deaths and 5.89% (95% UI 0.04, 0.08) of global DALYs. The highest death rates were observed in men aged 65-69 and women aged 75-79. The highest DALY rates were observed in the age group of 60-64 for both sexes. In 2019, the highest age-standardized deaths and DALY rates were observed in the Central Asia region [163.15 (95% UI 107.72, 223.58) per 100 000 people] and the Oceania region [4643.33 (95% UI 2835.66, 6902.6) per 100 000 people], respectively. Fiji [319.08 (95% UI 213.77, 444.96) per 100 000 people] and Kiribati [10 000.58 (95% UI 6266.55, 14159.2) per 100 000 people] had the highest age-standardized deaths and DALY rates, respectively. In 2019, the highest age-standardized rates of high BMI-related deaths and DALYs were observed in the middle-high socio-demographic index quintile and in the middle socio-demographic index quintile. The age-standardized deaths and DALY rates attributable to high BMI are projected to increase in both sexes from 2020 to 2035. The death rates are projected to rise from 62.79 to 64.31 per 100 000 people, while the DALY rates are projected to rise from 1946 to 2099.54 per 100 000 people. High BMIs significantly contribute to the global disease burden. The projected rise in deaths and DALY rates attributable to high BMI by 2035 highlights the critical need to address the impact of obesity on public health. Our study provides policymakers with up-to-date and comprehensive information.

Geographic and sociodemographic variations in disease burden, epidemiological trends, and risk factors of early-onset lung cancer: A global analysis.

11169 Background: Exploring the emerging trend of early-onset lung cancer (EOLC) burden is pivotal for guiding the implementation of preventive strategies among young adults. We aimed to provide a comprehensive examination of the geographic and sociodemographic variations in the disease burden, along with epidemiological trends and risk factors associated with EOLC over the past three decades. Methods: EOLC refers to lung cancer diagnosed in individuals aged 20-49 years. Utilizing the GBD 2019 data, we estimated the age-standardised incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates for EOLC by sex, socio-demographic index (SDI) quintiles, and geographical location for the period from 1990 to 2019. We investigated the relationships between concomitant risk factors and EOLC incidence at national level, and calculated the DALYs attributable to risk factors. The relative contribution of population growth, population ageing, and epidemiological changes to the variations in burden of EOLC over study period was measured using the decomposition analysis. Incidence was forecast to 2040 using the Bayesian age-period-cohort model. Results: A total of 135,704 EOLC cases, equating to a age-standardised incidence rate of 4.0 (95% UI 3.6 to 4.3) per 100,000, were estimated in 2019 worldwide and was the second leading cause of cancer death among young adults, with higher disease burden occurred in males and those from middle and high-middle SDI regions. An overall decreasing trend in burden of EOLC was observed globally; such trends were more pronounced among males and followed a gradient across SDI levels, with the greater decrease observed in high and high-middle SDI regions. Sex, tobacco smoking prevalence, per capita cigarette-equivalent estimates, average age of smoking initiation, ambient ozone pollution, and GDP per capita were independently and significantly associated with EOLC incidence at the population level. Smoking remained the top contributor to burden of EOLC, with the exception of Andean Latin America, North Africa, and the low SDI regions, where ambient particulate matter pollution and household air pollution from solid fuels ranked as the foremost attributable risk factors. Population growth was the primary driver behind the global increase in EOLC cases in low and low-middle SDI regions, while epidemiological changes accounted for the most substantial reduction in EOLC cases across most regions. The global incidental cases of EOLC was projected to increase by 31.1% in 2040, with a more pronounced increase in females and those from high-middle and middle SDI locations. Conclusions: Our findings underscore significant geographic and sociodemographic disparities in the epidemiological burden of EOLC, emphasizing the necessity for policymakers to devise and apply region-specific, evidence-driven preventive strategies.

Global, regional, and national burdens of cancer in children aged zero to nine years from 1990 to 2019.

The description of long-term trends in the cancer burden among children aged zero to nine years from 1990 to 2019 reveals significant changes in children's health. It helps in resource allocation and health policy planning. We analysed data on the incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) by sex and age group in children aged zero to nine. Estimates of DALYs for children aged zero to nine years, appeared as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study 2019, by age, sex, and location for 1990-2019. We also provided estimations by the sociodemographic index (SDI) quintile, a systematic measure to indicate educational attainment, income per capita, and total fertility rate for those younger than 25 years. We used age-period-cohort models to investigate paediatric cancers prevalence, incidence, mortality, and DALYs rates and auto-regressive integrated moving average models to predict cancer in children of different age groups in males and females. A total of 6 224 010 DALY numbers for cancer cases occurred globally in 2019 among children aged zero to nine years. Additionally, the incidence of paediatric cancers in 2019 in the middle SDI countries was the highest, including 60 662 cases, and the highest mortality and DALYs cases of paediatric cancers were in the low SDI countries (25 502 and 2 199 790). The joinpoint regression analysis revealed that the trend of total cancer burden in age-standardised mortality rates and age-standardised DALYs rates showed a significant decrease with an average annual percentage change of -2.10 and -2.03 from 1990 to 2019. Furthermore, the paediatric cancer spectrum was changing. Other malignant neoplasms and other leukaemia were the major components of cancer in all age groups of children. The disease burden in children aged zero to nine years decreased significantly globally from 1990 to 2019. However, the overall prediction of childhood cancer increased slightly from 2020 to 2040. Our findings may help guide investments and inform policies. This highlights the necessity to improve current treatment measures and establish effective prevention strategies to reduce the cancer burden among children aged zero to nine years.

Global, regional and national burdens of occupational injuries, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

ObjectivesOccupational injuries pose a significant challenge to global health and development. This study aimed to quantify the international and regional burdens of occupational injuries from 1990 to 2019, stratified by...

Global burden and socioeconomic impact of knee osteoarthritis: a comprehensive analysis.

To report the trend changes of the prevalence, incidence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of knee osteoarthritis (KOA) according to age, sex, sociodemographic index (SDI), and income. This analysis used estimates from the broader Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2019, which covered 201 countries from 1990 to 2019. National prevalence, incidence, and DALYs were shown by using ggplot2 and maps packages. Five-year intervals were used for age groupings. The Commonwealth and the World Bank income classifications were used for income grouping. Globally, there were ~364.58 million prevalent cases (females: 225.16 million), 29.51 million incident cases (females: 17.53 million), and 11.53 million DALYs (females: 7.09 million) due to KOA in 2019. The Western Pacific Region had a high endemicity of ~7,319.87 cases per 100,000 people (7.64%). Japan's prevalence rate (12,610.12 cases per 100,000 population) was 10 times that of Somalia (1,178.23) in 2019. In 200 countries (except the United Arab Emirates), the prevalence, incidence, and DALY rates of KOA in 2019 were higher among females than among males and increased with age up to the oldest age group. The prevalence was highest in the high-middle SDI countries, and the incidence and DALYs were highest in the middle SDI countries. There was a large burden of KOA worldwide, with some notable intercountry variation. Some countries had 10 times the burden of other countries. Increasing population awareness regarding the prevalence, incidence, and DALYs of KOA with a focus on the population in the Western Pacific Region is needed, particularly for older females. informs health policy development, and contributes to improving the efficiency, equity, and effectiveness of healthcare systems.

The burden of alcohol-related cardiovascular complications in young and middle-aged adults: rising burden of atrial fibrillation and hypertensive heart disease

Background and Aims The burden of alcohol-related complications is high and rising. However, there are notable deficiencies in comprehensive epidemiological study focusing on cardiovascular complications from alcohol, especially among young and middle-aged adults. We thus aimed to determine the burden of these conditions in young and middle-aged adults globally. Methods and Results We used data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 and analysed the mortality and disability-adjusted life years of alcohol-associated cardiovascular complications in young and middle-aged adults. The findings were classified by sex, region, country, and Sociodemographic Index (SDI). The highest age-standardized death rates (ASDR) were observed in stroke 0.84 (95% UI 0.60–1.09), followed by alcoholic cardiomyopathy 0.57 (95% UI 0.47–0.66) per 100,000 population. The overall burden of alcohol-associated cardiovascular complications decreased globally but increased in atrial fibrillation and hypertensive heart disease. Regionally, most regions underwent a decrease in ASDR, but an increase was observed in Southeast Asia (+2.82%), Western Pacific (+1.48%), low-middle (+1.81%), and middle SDI (+0.75%) countries. Nevertheless, the ASDR and ASDALYs were highest in Europe. Conclusions The impact of alcohol-associated atrial fibrillation and hypertensive heart disease has increased over the last decades. Regarding region, the burden in Europe and the rising burden in Asia, require immediate public health policy to lessen these cardiovascular complications from alcohol in young and middle-aged adults.

Global burden of stroke attributable to high systolic blood pressure in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019.

High systolic blood pressure (HSBP) is severely related to stroke, although the global burden of stroke associated with HSBP needs to be understood. Data derived from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study were used to analyze deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), age-standardized rates of mortality (ASMR), age-standardized rates of DALY (ASDR), and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). Globally, 52.57% of deaths and 55.54% of DALYs from stroke were attributable to HSBP in 2019, with higher levels in men; the ASMRs and ASDRs in 1990-2019 experienced a decline of 34.89% and 31.71%, respectively, with the highest ASMR- and ASDR-related EAPCs in women. The middle socio-demographic index (SDI) regions showed the most numbers of deaths and DALYs in 2019 and 1990, with a decline in ASMR and ASDR; East Asia shared over 33% of global deaths and DALYs; Central Asia shared the highest ASMR and ASDR; high-income Asia Pacific experienced the highest decline in the ASMR- and ASDR-related EAPCs. Central and Southeast Asia had the highest percentages for deaths and DALYs, respectively, with more ASMR in high-middle SDI; the SDI and human development index were negatively associated with ASMR/ASDR and ASMR/ASDR-related EAPCs in 2019. Global deaths and DALYs of stroke attributable to HSBP but none of their age-standardized rates have been on the rise over the past three decades; its disease burden focused especially on men aged 70 years and older in East, Central, and Southeast Asia, and the middle to high SDI regions.

Metabolic risks remain a serious threat to cardiovascular disease: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

Metabolic factors are major and controllable risk factors for cardiovascular diseases (CVD), and few studies have described this burden. We aim to assess it from 1990 to 2019 and predict the trends through 2034. Global Burden of Disease (GBD) provides data on sex, age, and socio-demographic index (SDI) levels. Numbers, age-standardized death rates (ASDR) and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) were used. Future trends were estimated by NORDPRED model. The deaths cases of metabolic-related CVD increased from 8.61 million (95% UI: 7.91-9.29) to 13.71 million (95% UI: 12.24-14.94) globally. The ASDR continued to decline globally (EAPC = -1.36). The burden was heavier in male and middle-aged people and elderly people. CVD-related ASDR caused by high systolic blood pressure (SBP) had a downward trend globally (EAPC = -1.45), while trends of high body mass index (BMI) (EAPC = 1.29, 1.97, 0.92) and fasting plasma glucose (FPG) (EAPC = 0.95, 1.08, 0.46) were increasing in the middle, low-middle, and low SDI regions, respectively. Compared to 2015-2019, cumulative deaths will increase by 27.85% from 2030 to 2034, while ASDR will decrease 10.47%. The metabolic-related CVD burden remained high globally and deaths will continue to rise in the future. Men, middle-aged and elderly people were focus of concern. High SBP was globally well-managed over the past 30years, but the CVD burden due to high BMI and FPG remained high. Exceptional initiatives are needed to regarding interventions targeting high BMI and FPG in middle and lower SDI regions.

Global, regional, and national burden of blindness and vision loss attributable to high fasting plasma glucose from 1990 to 2019, and forecasts to 2030: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

To systematically clarify the spatiotemporal trends, and age-sex-specific blindness and vision loss (BVL) burden due to high fasting plasma glucose (HFPG) from 1990 to 2019, and project this burden over the next decade. We obtained the number and rate of years lived with disability (YLDs) for the BVL burden attributable to HFPG by age, sex, socio-demographic index (SDI), and location between 1990 and 2019 from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 database. The average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) were calculated to assess the temporal trends of HFPG-attributable BVL burden. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict the HFPG-attributable BVL burden. In 2019, the global number and age-standardized rate (ASR) for YLDs of BVL attributable to HFPG were 673.13 (95% UI: 159.52 to 1565.34) thousand and 8.44 (95% UI: 2.00 to 19.63) per 100,000 people, respectively. The highest burdens were found in Oceania, South Asia, and Southeast Asia, and the BVL burden due to HFPG was higher in the elderly and lower SDI regions. From 1990 to 2019, the global ASR of HFPG-attributable BVL gradually increased with AAPC (95% CI) being 0.80 (0.74 to 0.86). In addition, the HFPG-attributable BVL burden will slightly increase in the future decade. The HFPG remains the important cause of BVL worldwide, placing a substantial disease burden. From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized burden of BVL due to HFPG increased, and will consistently increase in the future decade, particularly in the elderly and in regions with middle SDI or below.

Evaluating the global impact of low physical activity on type 2 diabetes: Insights from the global burden of disease 2019 study.

We aimed to assess the global implications of low physical activity (LPA) on type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) by utilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019. The analysis was conducted by examining the age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates over a 30-year period. To assess the trends, we utilized estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs). The study revealed a notable increase in the burden of DALYs attributable to T2DM resulting from LPA, with an EAPC of 0.84 (95% confidence interval 0.78-0.89). Among the regions examined, Oceania showed the highest burden, whereas Eastern Europe exhibited the lowest burden. Specifically, within the Central Asia region, a considerable increase in T2DM-LPA DALYs was observed, with an EAPC of 3.18 (95% confidence interval 3.01-3.36). The burden associated with T2DM-LPA DALYs was found to be similar between genders and increased across all age groups, peaking in the 80-84 years. Furthermore, there was a clear association between the socio-demographic index (SDI) and the age-standardized DALYs rate. Regions categorized as low-middle and middle SDI experienced a substantial rise in burden. This study highlights a substantial increase in the T2DM-LPA DALYs in low-middle and middle SDI regions, as well as among individuals aged 80-84 years. These findings emphasize the importance of implementing comprehensive global health interventions that promote physical activity, particularly targeting high-risk populations and regions.

Assessing tobacco-related ischemic stroke in Pakistan (1990-2019): Insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study.

This study analyzes the impact of active smoking and secondhand smoke on the ischemic stroke burden of Pakistan, 1990-2019. We used data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database to conduct a comprehensive evaluation of ischemic stroke-related indicators in Pakistan, including the number of deaths, mortality rates, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), DALY rates, and the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). Joinpoint analysis was applied to assess sex-specific temporal trends in the burden of active smoking and secondhand smoke in Pakistan and regions of Pakistan. These assessments incorporated the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) and we have made comparative analyses of epidemiological differences between active smoking and secondhand smoke exposure. The burden of ischemic stroke related to tobacco use is presented in terms of the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and the age-standardized disability-adjusted life year rate (ASDR) per 100000 population. The results (ASMR/ASDR) for Pakistan were 6.04/130.81, in the middle SDI region 7.69/176.54, and low-middle SDI region 5.64/124.22. Pakistan's ASMR is higher than the global average of 5.85, while ASDR is lower than the global average of 140.23. From 1990 to 2019, a downward trend in both ASMR and ASDR was observed, indicating progress in controlling tobacco-related stroke burdens. Individuals aged ≥70 years experienced the highest rates of stroke (ASMR: 66.31; ASDR: 1091.20). Gender disparities were evident: men were more affected by active smoking (ASMR: 3.08; ASDR: 78.47) than women (ASMR: 0.79; ASDR: 20.76), while women faced a higher burden from secondhand smoke (ASMR: 0.66; ASDR: 16.33) compared to men (ASMR: 0.79; ASDR: 9.93). Regional differences within Pakistan show fluctuating death and DALY rates. Notably, an increasing trend in female ASDR due to secondhand smoke in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Region (annual percentage change, APC=0.17 from 2010 to 2019) calls for focused health interventions. The study finds ASMR for tobacco-related ischemic stroke in Pakistan exceeds global averages, with significant gender and age disparities in exposure to smoke, highlighting the need for targeted health interventions.

Global, regional, and national burden of chronic kidney disease attributable to high fasting plasma glucose from 1990 to 2019: a systematic analysis from the global burden of disease study 2019.

Given the rising prevalence of high fasting plasma glucose (HFPG) over the past three decades, it is crucial to assess its global, national, and regional impact on chronic kidney disease (CKD). This study aims to investigate the burden of CKD attributed to HFPG and its distribution across various levels. The data for this research was sourced from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019. To estimate the burden of CKD attributed to HFPG, we utilized DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool. The burden was measured using age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate. Correlation analysis was performed using the Spearman rank order correlation method. Temporal trends were analyzed by estimating the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). Globally in 2019, there were a total of 487.97 thousand deaths and 13,093.42 thousand DALYs attributed to CKD attributed to HFPG, which represent a substantial increase of 153.8% and 120%, respectively, compared to 1990. Over the period from 1990 to 2019, the burden of CKD attributable to HFPG increased across all regions, with the highest increases observed in regions with high socio-demographic index (SDI) and middle SDI. Regions with lower SDI exhibited higher ASMR and age-standardized DALYs (ASDR) compared to developed nations at the regional level. Additionally, the EAPC values, which indicate the rate of increase, were significantly higher in these regions compared to developed nations. Notably, high-income North America, belonging to the high SDI regions, experienced the greatest increase in both ASMR and ASDR over the past three decades. Furthermore, throughout the years from 1990 to 2019, males bore a greater burden of CKD attributable to HFPG. With an increasing population and changing dietary patterns, the burden of CKD attributed to HFPG is expected to worsen. From 1990 to 2019, males and developing regions have experienced a more significant burden. Notably, the EAPC values for both ASMR and ASDR were higher in males and regions with lower SDI (excluding high-income North America). This emphasizes the pressing requirement for effective interventions to reduce the burden of CKD attributable to HFPG.

Global trends and burden of stroke attributable to particulate matter pollution from 1990 to 2019

ObjectiveTo investigate the association between particulate matter and the incidence, disability, and mortality of stroke, we reported the burden of stroke attributable to particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution, including ambient particulate matter pollution (APMP) and household air pollution from solid fuels (HAP), from 1990 to 2019. MethodsWe retrieved the detailed data on the burden of stroke attributable to PM2.5 from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019. The number of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and deaths, age-standardized death rates (ASMR), and age-standardized disability-adjusted life-years rates (ASDR) attributable to PM2.5 were estimated by age, sex, geographical location, socio-demographic index (SDI), and stroke subtypes (ischemic stroke, intracerebral hemorrhage, and subarachnoid hemorrhage). The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was calculated to assess the trends in ASDR and ASMR during the period 1990–2019. ResultsRegarding stroke subtypes, the proportion of ischemic stroke burden is increasing, while intracerebral hemorrhage carries the heaviest burden. Both APMP and HAP contributed the most to stroke-related deaths and DALYs of stroke among the elderly populations and males. The highest ASDR and ASMR of stroke attributable to APMP were in the middle SDI regions, especially in East Asia. For HAP, the highest ASDR and ASMR were in the low SDI regions, mainly in Oceania. From 1990–2019, in terms of the EAPC results, APMP caused an increased burden of stroke, whereas the impact of HAP significantly fell. The most pronounced increase in ASDR and ASMR for strokes attributed to APMP were in the low-middle SDI and low SDI regions, particularly among the 25–35 age group. ConclusionsStroke attributed to PM2.5 is a global health problem, and the patterns and trends were heterogeneous across APMP and HAP. Targeted interventions should be formulated for APMP and HAP.

Global, regional, and national incidence trends of depressive disorder, 1990–2019: An age-period-cohort analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study

BackgroundDepressive disorder is a severe global public health problem. It is crucial to evaluate the global incidence trends of depressive disorder. MethodsThe incidence data were drawn from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019. Estimates were presented by global and sociodemographic index (SDI) quintiles, and the age-period-cohort (APC) model was used to estimate the incidence trends. ResultsAPC analysis indicated a decline in depressive disorder incidence globally (net drift = −0.24%, 95%CI: −0.29, −0.18), except for an increase in SDI regions (net drift = 0.07, 95%CI:0, 0.14). In high SDI regions, depressive disorder incidence increased among the younger and declined among the elder population, whereas the opposite trend was observed in middle and low-middle SDI regions. The depressive disorder incidence increased significantly among people aged 15 to 24 years after adjusting for age effects, decreased since 2000 after adjusting for period effects and increased rapidly in the birth cohort after 1990 in high SDI by adjusting for cohort effects. ConclusionGlobally, there was a declining trend of depressive disorder incidence in 1990–2019. Specifically, the incidence was declining globally in younger populations, while increasing in older populations. However, this trend differed depending on the SDI of the region.

Contribution of High Body Mass Index to the Global Burden of Esophageal Cancer: A Population-Based Study from 1990 to 2019.

The changing patterns of obesity have had a significant impact on the epidemiology of esophageal cancer (EC). This study aimed to investigate the specific burden of EC associated with high body mass index (BMI) across different geographical and Sociodemographic Index (SDI) regions, using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Mortality, age-standardized death rates (ASDR), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) from 1990 to 2019 were analyzed for 204 countries and territories. Decomposition analysis, frontier and health inequality analyses, and age-period-cohort models were employed to examine the factors driving disease burden and to predict future trends. High BMI contributed to 89,903.9 [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 27,878.9-171,254.6] EC-related deaths, an ASDR of 1.1 (95% UI 0.3-2.1) per 100,000 population, and 2,202,314.1 (681,901.4-4,173,080.3) DALYs in 2019. There was an increasing trend in these figures over the 29-year period. The middle SDI region (31,023.8, 95% UI 9,180.4-62,631.5) and East Asia (36,939.9, 95% UI 9,620.5-81,495) carried the highest burden of EC-related deaths. Disease burden increased across all age groups and genders globally. Population growth was a major factor driving EC deaths across all SDI quintiles. Disparities in disease burden were observed across countries at all development levels. Predictive models indicated a continued increase in EC-related deaths in the next decade. The study provided a comprehensive understanding of the global burden of EC associated with high BMI over the past decades. Opportunities exist to reduce this burden at all SDI levels through targeted interventions and policies.

The global burden of ischemic heart disease attributed to high fasting plasma glucose: Data from 1990 to 2019

BackgroundIschemic heart disease (IHD) is the leading cause of death worldwide. High fasting plasma glucose (FPG) is an increasing risk factor for IHD. We aimed to explore the long-term trends of high FPG-attributed IHD mortality during 1990–2019. MethodsData were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 database. Deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) of IHD attributable to high FPG were estimated by sex, socio-demographic index (SDI), regions and age. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were calculated to assess the trends of ASMR and ASDR of IHD attributable to high FPG. ResultsIHD attributable to high FPG deaths increased from 1.04 million (0.62–1.63) in 1990 to 2.35 million (1.4–3.7) in 2019, and the corresponding DALYs rose from 19.82 million (12.68–29.4) to 43.3 million (27.8–64.2). In 2019, ASMR and ASDR of IHD burden attributable to high FPG were 30.45 (17.09–49.03) and 534.8 (340.7–792.2), respectively. The highest ASMR and ASDR of IHD attributable to high FPG occurred in low-middle SDI quintiles, with 39.28 (22.40–62.76) and 742.3 (461.5–1117.5), respectively, followed by low SDI quintiles and middle SDI quintiles. Males had higher ASMR and ASDR compared to females across the past 30 years. In addition, ASRs of DALYs and deaths were highest in those over 95 years old. ConclusionHigh FPG-attributed IHD mortality and DALYs have increased dramatically and globally, particularly in low, low-middle SDI quintiles and among the elderly. High FPG remains a great concern on the global burden of IHD and effective prevention and interventions are urgently needed to curb the ranking IHD burden, especially in lower SDI regions.

The global burden of childhood and adolescent leukaemia and attributable risk factors: An analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

Aim of this study is to estimate the burden of leukaemia in children and adolescents, as well as the socio-demographic index (SDI), for 21 regions around the world from 1990 to 2019. We also conducted an analysis of the Joinpoint model to estimate the time trend of childhood and adolescent leukaemia incidence, death, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate and age-standardised rates (ASR) of leukaemia. According to our analysis, the middle SDI experienced the highest decrease in incidence rate between 1990 and 2019, with an average annual percent change (AAPC) of -2.8 (95% confidence interval (CI) = -3.0, -2.6, P < 0.05). We showed that DALYs of children leukaemia is 155.98 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) = 127.18, 182.64) for global male, however, global female leukaemia DALYs is 117.65 (95% UI = 102.07, 132.70). Despite the observed decline in the incidence, mortality, and DALYs of leukaemia over the last three decades, the burden of childhood and adolescent leukaemia remains high, particularly in areas with lower SDI.

Changes in global mortality from aortic aneurysm

ObjectiveGlobally, there has been a marked increase in aortic aneurysm-related deaths between 1990 and 2019. We sought to understand the underlying etiologies for this mortality trend by examining secular changes in both demographics and the prevalence of risk factors, and how these changes may vary across sociodemographic index (SDI) regions. MethodsWe queried the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) for aortic aneurysm deaths from 1990 to 2019 overall and by age group. We identified the percentage of aortic aneurysm deaths attributable to each risk factor identified by GBD modeling (smoking, hypertension, lead exposure, and high sodium diet) and their respective changes over time. We then analyzed aneurysm mortality by SDI region. ResultsThe number of aortic aneurysm-related deaths have increased from 94,968 in 1990 to 172,427 in 2019, signifying an 81.6% increase, which greatly exceeds the 18.2% increase in all-cause mortality observed over the same time interval. Examination of age-specific mortality demonstrated that the number of aortic aneurysm deaths markedly correlated with advancing age. However, when considering rate of death rather than mortality count, overall age-standardized death rates decreased 18% from 2.72 per 100,000 in 1990 to 2.21 per 100,000 in 2019. Analysis of the specific risk factors associated with aneurysm death revealed that the percentage of deaths attributable to smoking decreased from 45.6% in 1990 to 34.6% in 2019, and deaths attributable to hypertension decreased from 38.7% to 34.7%. Globally, hypertension surpassed smoking as the leading risk factor. The reported rate of death was consistently greater as SDI increased, and this effect was most pronounced among low-middle and middle SDI regions (173.2% and 170.4%, respectively). ConclusionsDespite an overall increase in the number of aneurysm deaths, there was a decrease in the age-standardized death rate, demonstrating that the observed increased number of aortic aneurysm deaths between 1990 and 2019 was primarily driven by an overall increase in the age of the global population. Fortunately, it appears that the increase in overall aneurysm-related deaths has been modulated by improved risk factor modification, in particular smoking. Given the rise in aneurysm-related deaths, global expansion of vascular specialty capabilities is warranted and will serve to amplify improvements in population-based aneurysm health achieved with risk factor control.

How Possible Is the Elimination of Viral Hepatitis? An Analysis Based on the Global Burden of Disease from Hepatitis B and C, 1990-2019.

This study assesses the feasibility of hepatitis B (HBV) and C (HCV) elimination using an analysis of trends of epidemiology data (1990-2019) from the Global Burden of Disease Study. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to identify significantly changing points in the trends of Age-standardized Prevalence Rates (ASPR) and Age-standardized Mortality Rates (ASMR) and to estimate the annual percentage changes (APC) and the average annual percentage changes (AAPC) for the period. The Sociodemographic Index (SDI) was used to analyze trends between countries. The total percentage change of the ASPR (2019/1990) was -31.4% and -12.8% for HBV and HCV worldwide, respectively; the rate ratio (HBV/HCV) was 2.5. Mortality had decreased for HBV but not for HCV. The total percentage change for the ASMR (2019/1990) was -26.7% and 10.0% for HBV and HCV, respectively. While the ASMR of HBV decreased, HCV increased during this period. The percentage change in ASMR of HBV was highest in countries with high-middle SDI and lowest in countries with high SDI. For HCV, the percentage change in ASMR was highest in countries with high SDI (increase), and only in countries with low SDI did it decrease. The global HBV and HCV rates have fallen with different AAPCs associated with the SDI. Despite the advances, there is still a long way to go to achieve the 2030 elimination goals. An important challenge is related to finding a way to speed up the yearly rate at which the decline is happening.