Southern Mid-latitudes Research Articles

Statistics and Meteorology of Cutoff Lows over South Africa 1970–2023

The meteorology of cutoff lows over South Africa is characterized by statistical analysis of daily field data in the period 1970–2023. An index is formulated by subtracting 500 hPa geopotential height in the mid-latitudes from the subtropics. Cutoff lows (COL) are identified by positive values, mostly in autumn and spring. Statistics indicate that climate forcing is seasonal: La Nina/El Nino favors COL in March–May/September–November. Hemispheric regressions reveal anomalous highs across the southern mid-latitudes when COL are frequent over South Africa. A 14-case composite was formed from the most intense daily COL events in autumn and spring. The composite shows a NW- tilted Rossby wave and jet stream loop around the COL. Maritime easterlies induce a warm east—cool west SST pattern, but composite moist inflows are shallow, so stormy weather hugs the coastal plains. Overturning circulations meet in an upper-level “saddle” over South Africa. 500 hPa sinking motions to the Southwest are of similar strength to rising motions to the Northeast. A COL case study exhibited hourly rain rates >10 mm at Port Alfred 18–20 October 2012 fed by tropical inflow. New insights emerged from this study via composite height sections over South Africa.

Late Holocene record of subantarctic glacier variability in Table Fjord, Cook Ice Cap, Kerguelen Islands

The subantarctic islands between 40 and 60°S are circum-polar landmasses influenced by the southern westerly wind (SWW) belt whose latitudinal shifts are driven by the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) over decadal timescales. In the Indian sector of the Southern Ocean, the Kerguelen Islands (49°S) form a volcanic archipelago that is home to the Cook Ice Cap (CIC). Atmospheric drying favored by a poleward migration of the SWW induced a dramatic shrinkage of the CIC over the past 50 years. Current knowledge of how this decline compares with the natural variability of the CIC is unclear and based exclusively on geomorphological records with limited temporal resolution. This paper introduces a 4 kyr marine record built from a transect of giant piston cores collected in Table Fjord, southwestern margin of the CIC. Interpretation of sedimentary and geochemical proxies is supported by statistical correlations with the CIC surface mass balance on the instrumental timescale, and by the age overlapping with dated landforms and deposits over the last two millennia. High-resolution geochronological data (137Cs and 210Pb inventories along with 63 AMS 14C dates) corrected from a local marine reservoir age allowed reconstructing glacier variability at a multidecadal resolution. The CIC was paced by periods of glacial advances at 3.4–2.8, 2.3–1.7, and 1.35–1.15 ka cal BP, followed by a two-stage ‘Little Ice Age’ maximum between 0.7 ka cal BP and the early 20th century. Comparison with paleoenvironmental records from the subantarctic fringe zone and the southern mid-latitudes suggests SWW-driven precipitation (wetter and windier conditions) were the main driver of centennial-scale glacier variability in the Kerguelen Islands, notably after 2.3 ka cal BP. The Kerguelen record thereby supports a zonally-synchronous, hemispheric-wide SWW pattern pacing Southern Ocean climatic variability in a SAM-like mode. The Little Ice Age maximum ice extent results from the coincidence of cold conditions caused by an equatorward shift of the Polar Front, an oceanic front bordering the Kerguelen archipelago resulting in lower sea surface temperatures, together with wetter conditions favored by strengthened SWW.

10Be chronology of the Last Glacial Maximum and Termination in the Andes of central Chile: The record of the Universidad Glacier (34° S)

Reconstructing mid-latitude glacier variations is a prerequisite for unveiling the interhemispheric climate linkages and atmospheric-ocean forcings that triggered those changes during the last glacial cycle. Nonetheless, the timing, magnitude, and structure of glacier fluctuations in the southern mid-latitudes remain incomplete. Here, we present a new 10Be chronology of the Universidad Glacier in the Andes of central Chile (34° S, 70° W; ∼2500 m a.s.l.) based on 21 cosmogenic-exposure ages of boulders on discrete moraine ridges defining former ice margins. Our findings include the mapping and dating of three moraines, UNI I, UNI II, and UNI III, located ∼20 km, 15 km, and 10 km down-valley from the present-day glacier front, respectively. The 10Be exposure ages of the UNI I moraine range from 135.9 ± 7.1 to 51.4 ± 2.7 ka (n = 3). The UNI II moraine gave a mean age of 18.0 ± 0.9 (n = 15) and the UNI III moraine yielded a mean age of 13.9 ± 0.8 ka (n = 3). The UNI I moraine implies the largest ice extent during a pre-Last Glacial Maximum (pre-LGM) period, including the penultimate glaciation. The UNI II is a moraine complex that represents cold and humid conditions in central Chile at the end of the LGM, which we attribute to the northward-shift of the Southern Westerly Winds (SWW). The UNI III moraine represents a return to glacial conditions interrupting the Termination, evidencing both a double-step deglacial trend observed through the southern middle and high latitudes at the end of the last ice age. The Andes at this subtropical latitude record a global signal of glacial and climate change.

Late Quaternary glacial maxima in southern Patagonia: insights from the Lago Argentino glacier lobe

Abstract. Determining the timing and extent of Quaternary glaciations around the globe is critical to understanding the drivers behind climate change and glacier fluctuations. Evidence from the southern mid-latitudes indicates that local glacial maxima preceded the global Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), implying that feedbacks in the climate system or ice dynamics played a role beyond the underlying orbital forcings. To shed light on these processes, we investigated the glacial landforms shaped and deposited by the Lago Argentino glacier (50° S), an outlet lobe of the former Patagonian Ice Sheet, in southern Argentina. We mapped geomorphological features on the landscape and dated moraine boulders and outwash sediments using 10Be cosmogenic nuclides and feldspar infrared stimulated luminescence (IRSL) to constrain the chronology of glacial advance and retreat. We report that the Lago Argentino glacier lobe reached more extensive limits prior to the global LGM, advancing during the middle to late Pleistocene between 243–132 ka and during Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3), culminating at 44.5 ± 8.0 and at 36.6 ± 1.0 ka. Our results indicate that the most extensive advance of the last glacial cycle occurred during MIS 3, and we hypothesize that this was a result of longer and colder winters, as well as increased precipitation delivered by a latitudinal migration of the Southern Westerly Winds belt, highlighting the role of local and regional climate feedbacks in modulating ice mass changes in the southern mid-latitudes.

Spatial and temporal variability of martian water-ice cloud effective radius in EMIRS thermal infrared observations

New analyses of thermal infrared spectra obtained from the Emirates Mars Infrared Spectrometer (EMIRS) allow for retrieval of water-ice cloud effective radius, reff,ice, in the lower atmosphere of Mars across spatial, seasonal, and daytime diurnal scales. Using a one Martian-year observational dataset the mean retrieved reff,ice is 3.1 μm (standard deviation, σ = 1.5 μm) for an assumed effective variance, νeff,ice = 0.1, and with most individual values between 1 and 10 μm. Sensitivity analyses show the uncertainty associated with reff,ice is largely inversely proportional to water-ice cloud optical depth, τice. As a result, our retrieval is generally applicable to water-ice clouds with τice of at least ∼0.02 to 0.08 at 825 cm−1. Seasonal results show mean reff,ice values of 4.3 μm (σ = 1.9 μm) during aphelion season (Ls = 40°–140°), associated with larger particle sizes in the aphelion cloud belt (ACB), and 2.5 μm (σ = 0.8 μm) during perihelion season (Ls = 225°–360°). Diurnal analyses between roughly 06:00 and 20:00 local true solar time indicate the largest variability occurs in ACB clouds, with effective radii tending to be smaller during midday (zonal-mean reff,ice of 4–5 μm) as compared to the mornings and afternoons (zonal-mean reff,ice of 6–7 μm). Relatively large spatial gradients in reff,ice within the ACB are observed, including a seasonal mean reff,ice of ∼8 μm in the Tharsis region and regions in the southern mid-latitudes with seasonal mean reff,ice of ∼2 μm. Spatial variability in reff,ice tends to be smaller throughout the rest of the year, though with some similar patterns. This includes several time periods between regional dust storms when a low-latitude band of water-ice clouds formed in the afternoons near Tharsis, which grew in both optical depth and effective radius to maxima in the early evenings. Lastly, changes in reff,ice are found to be generally positively correlated with changes in τice and negatively correlated with estimated cloud height, though reff,ice distributions also show this to be a more complex relationship than simple averages might suggest.

Combined Impacts of Southern Annular Mode and Zonal Wave 3 on Antarctic Sea Ice Variability

Abstract Large-scale modes of atmospheric variability in the southern midlatitudes can influence Antarctic sea ice concentrations (SIC) via diverse processes. For instance, variability in both the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and zonal wave 3 (ZW3) have been linked to the abrupt 2015/16 sea ice decline. While SIC responses to each of SAM and ZW3 have been examined previously, their interaction and synchronous impact on Antarctic sea ice has not. Here, we investigate SAM/ZW3 interactions and their associated combined impacts on Antarctic sea ice using a 1200-yr simulation from a state-of-the-art climate model. Our results suggest that zonal wind anomalies associated with SAM drive SIC anomalies in the marginal ice-zone via advection of ice normal to the ice edge and Ekman drift. In contrast, meridional wind anomalies associated with ZW3 can have opposing dynamic and thermodynamic effects on SIC. Both SAM- and ZW3-related SIC anomalies propagate eastward, likely by the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. The interaction of SAM and ZW3 leads to interesting regional SIC responses. During negative SAM, ZW3-associated meridional wind anomalies across western Antarctica are closer to the ice edge and have a stronger impact on sea ice overall. ZW3 phase affects meridional wind anomalies across the whole ice edge, whereas it affects SIC anomalies mainly over western Antarctica. In parts of eastern Antarctica, SIC anomalies are less sensitive to ZW3 phase, but are sensitive to SAM, particularly in locations where the ice edge has a prominent angle relative to the SAM-related zonal wind anomalies. Significance Statement The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and zonal wave 3 (ZW3) are large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns affecting midlatitude east–west and north–south winds, respectively, over the Southern Ocean. Variations in winds can affect sea ice formation, which can feed back to influence Southern Hemisphere climate. We examine how variations in SAM and ZW3 affect Antarctic sea ice due to a combination of wind- and ocean-driven ice movement and sea ice growth or melting. Regional variations in ice concentrations are due both to alternating north–south ZW3 winds and to the interaction of SAM-related east–west winds with the ice edge. SAM and ZW3 can also interact, leading to stronger north–south wind and sea ice responses over western Antarctica when SAM-related midlatitude winds weaken.

Late Pleistocene glaciations on the sub-Antarctic Kerguelen Archipelago: new evidence from 36Cl CRE dating and comparison with other southern mid-latitude glacier records

Previous paleo-glacial studies on Kerguelen showed a singular pattern of Holocene glacier evolution on this archipelago in comparison with other southern mid-latitude glacier records. In this study, we aim to test this singularity on a longer timescale, based on 26 new in situ-produced 36Cl ages from pre-Holocene glacio-geomorphic features. Samples from moraine boulders and glacially polished bedrock were extracted at six different sites, located near the Port-aux-Français scientific station (PAF site), on Longue Island, Australia Island, on the Port-Jeanne d’Arc Peninsula (PJDA site), on the Gallieni Peninsula at Baie Larose (BLR site) and the McMurdo Island. The moraine ages indicate that glacier culminations occurred during Marine Isotopic Stage 3 (MIS 3) at 42.2 ± 4.9 ka on the PAF site, and during the global Last Glacial Maximum (gLGM) at 21.5 ± 3.2 ka on the PJDA site and at 21.4 ± 3.7 ka and 19.4 ± 2.6 on Baie Larose site. This is the first time that Late Pleistocene glacier culminations are evidenced on Kerguelen by direct moraine dating, thus allowing comparison with other moraine records from the southern mid-latitudes. While it remains speculative whether or not the MIS 3 glacial maximum at ⁓42.2 ka is in phase with other glaciers at this latitude (due to high age uncertainties), the gLGM glacial maximum is synchronous with that in other southern mid-latitude regions. 36Cl CRE ages of glacially polished bedrock surfaces sampled in different locations of the archipelago vary from ⁓39 ka to ⁓19 ka. We interpret these results as reflecting periods of deglaciation that occurred in between the two glacier culminations and right after the gLGM on Kerguelen. These ages also suggest that some places of the archipelago were free of ice at least since ⁓ 39 ka. The presence of a MIS 3 moraine at PAF site that has not been obliterated by a gLGM advance suggests that the ⁓ 42.2 ka glacier extent was at least as large as gLGM glacial maxima on the archipelago. The glacier culmination during MIS 3 being larger than that during the gLGM on the Kerguelen Archipelago matches observations in other southern mid-latitude regions. Late Pleistocene glacier culminations on Kerguelen may have been in phase with cold temperatures recorded in SST records, which suggest a cooling around Kerguelen. However, climate drivers responsible for the larger MIS 3 glacier culmination on Kerguelen still remain unclear even if we hypothesize that changes in precipitation may have superimposed on temperature changes.

Uncertainty and outliers in high‐resolution gridded precipitation products over eastern North America

AbstractSeveral observational precipitation products that provide high temporal (≤3 h) and spatial (≤0.25°) resolution gridded estimates are available, although no single product can be assumed worldwide to be closest to the (unknown) “reality.” Here, we propose and apply a methodology to quantify the uncertainty of a set of precipitation products and to identify, at individual grid points, the products that are likely wrong (i.e., outliers). The methodology is applied over eastern North America for the 2015–2019 period for eight high‐resolution gridded precipitation products: CMORPH, ERA5, GSMaP, IMERG, MSWEP, PERSIANN, STAGE IV and TMPA. Four difference metrics are used to quantify discrepancies in different aspects of the precipitation time series, such as the total accumulation, two characteristics of the intensity‐frequency distribution, and the timing of precipitating events. Large regional and seasonal variations in the observational uncertainty are found across the ensemble. The observational uncertainty is higher in Canada than in the United States, reflecting large differences in the density of precipitation gauge measurements. In northern midlatitudes, the uncertainty is highest in winter, demonstrating the difficulties of satellite retrieval algorithms in identifying precipitation in snow‐covered areas. In southern midlatitudes, the uncertainty is highest in summer, probably due to the more discontinuous nature of precipitation. While the best product cannot be identified due to the lack of an absolute reference, our study is able to identify products that are likely wrong and that should be excluded depending on the specific application.

Relationship between the AMOC and the Multidecadal Variability of the Midlatitude Southern Indian Ocean

Abstract Air–sea coupling system in the southwestern Indian Ocean (SWIO; 35°–55°S, 40°–75°E) exhibits predominant multidecadal variability that is the strongest during austral summer. It is characterized by an equivalent barotropic atmospheric high (low) pressure over warm (cold) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and a poleward (equatorward) shift of the westerlies during the positive (negative) phase. In this study, physical processes of this multidecadal variability are investigated by using observations/reanalysis and CMIP6 model simulations. Results suggest that the multidecadal fluctuation can be explained by the modulation of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and the local air–sea positive feedback in the SWIO. In both observations/reanalysis and CMIP6 model simulations, the AMOC fluctuation presents a significantly negative correlation with the multidecadal SST variation in the SWIO when the AMOC is leading by about a decade. The mechanisms are that the preceding AMOC variation can cause an interhemispheric dipolar pattern of SST anomalies in the Atlantic Ocean. Subsequently, the SST anomalies in the midlatitudes of the South Atlantic can propagate to the SWIO by the oceanic Rossby wave under the influence of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). Once the SST anomalies reach the SWIO, these SST anomalies in the oceanic front can affect the baroclinicity in the lower troposphere to influence the synoptic transient eddy and then cause the atmospheric circulation anomaly via the eddy–mean flow interaction. Subsequently, the anomalous atmospheric circulation over the SWIO can significantly strengthen the SST anomalies through modifying the oceanic meridional temperature advection and latent and sensible heat flux.

Total ozone variability and trends over the South Pole during the wintertime

Abstract. The Antarctic polar vortex creates unique chemical and dynamical conditions when the stratospheric air over Antarctica is isolated from the rest of the stratosphere. As a result, stratospheric ozone within the vortex remains largely unchanged for a 5-month period from April until late August when the sunrise and extremely cold temperatures create favorable conditions for rapid ozone loss. Such prolonged stable conditions within the vortex make it possible to estimate the total ozone levels there from sparse wintertime ozone observations at the South Pole. The available records of focused Moon (FM) observations by Dobson and Brewer spectrophotometers at the Amundsen–Scott South Pole Station (for the periods 1964–2022 and 2008–2022, respectively) as well as integrated ozonesonde profiles (1986–2022) and MERRA-2 reanalysis data (1980–2022) were used to estimate the total ozone variability and long-term changes over the South Pole. Comparisons with MERRA-2 reanalysis data for the period 1980–2022 demonstrated that the uncertainties of Dobson and Brewer daily mean FM values are about 2.5 %–4 %. Wintertime (April–August) MERRA-2 data have a bias with Dobson data of −8.5 % in 1980–2004 and 1.5 % in 2005–2022. The mean difference between wintertime Dobson and Brewer data in 2008–2022 was about 1.6 %; however, this difference can be largely explained by various systematic errors in Brewer data. The wintertime ozone values over the South Pole during the last 20 years were about 12 % below the pre-1980s level; i.e., the decline there was nearly twice as large as that over southern midlatitudes. It is probably the largest long-term ozone decline aside from the springtime Antarctic ozone depletion. While wintertime ozone decline over the pole has hardly any impact on the environment, it can be used as an indicator to diagnose the state of the ozone layer, particularly because it requires data from only one station. Dobson and ozonesonde data after 2001 show a small positive, but not statistically significant, trend in ozone values of about 1.5 % per decade that is in line with the trend expected from the concentration of the ozone-depleting substances in the stratosphere.

New global topography of Enceladus: Hypsometry, basins, spherical harmonics, shell thickness, and true polar wander revisited

A new global high-resolution stereogrammetric and photogrammetric topographic map and updated 3-color global mosaic of Enceladus reveal that the shape of this active icy ocean world is distorted from a simple triaxial ellipsoid. Although the topographic range (high-to-low) of Enceladus, when referenced to its global triaxial figure, is the narrowest among icy bodies mapped globally thus far, the global DEM indicates a pronounced zonal latitudinal zoning of topography, with the north polar region and mid-southern latitudes being ∼300–400 m higher and south polar and mid-northern latitudes being ∼400 m lower on average than the triaxial figure. Dynamically, both north and south poles are low, but the south remarkably so, by >1 km. Spherical harmonic analysis also indicates the tidal axis of the body is located ∼4°W of the current IAU-defined prime meridian. Superposed on this global pattern are topographic features associated with geologic units within each terrain, as well as several prominent regional 100-km-scale basins, 1-to-1.8 km deep, previously reported. The shapes of these large basins depend on the terrains they formed in; those in older cratered terrains are relatively simple (i.e., ovate) in shape, but those in resurfaced terrains are more complex in shape, often correlating with geologic features and units within those terrains. Thus, while these basins exhibit no explicit local-scale geologic deformation or disruption of the icy shell in association with their elevations/formation, they are partially controlled by the physical characteristics of the terrains they formed in, suggesting that the icy shell can be heterogenous in character. Most of these basins occur on the trailing hemisphere and although a few of these are aligned, we find that they do not form a global great circle pattern, weakening previous arguments for true polar wander. Our preferred hypothesis is that these basins are due to isostatic adjustment of the ice shell in response to thermal anomalies from below and suggest that they may be surface manifestations of diffused hydrothermal plumes originating at the surface of Enceladus' rocky core. If so, similar patterns in core activity might be revealed once global topographic mapping is complete on Europa.

Strong Evidence of Heterogeneous Processing on Stratospheric Sulfate Aerosol in the Extrapolar Southern Hemisphere Following the 2022 Hunga Tonga‐Hunga Ha'apai Eruption

AbstractThe January 2022 eruption of Hunga Tonga‐Hunga Ha'apai (HT‐HH) caused the largest enhancement in stratospheric aerosol loading in decades and produced an unprecedented enhancement in stratospheric water vapor, leading to strong stratospheric cooling that in turn induced changes in the large‐scale circulation. Here we use satellite measurements of gas‐phase constituents together with aerosol extinction to investigate the extent to which the thick aerosol, excess moisture, and strong cooling enabled heterogeneous chemical processing. In the southern tropics, unambiguous signatures of substantial chlorine and nitrogen repartitioning appear over a broad vertical domain almost immediately after the eruption, with depletion of N2O5, NOx, and HCl accompanied by enhancement of HNO3, ClO, and ClONO2. After initially rising steeply, HNO3 and ClO plateau, maintaining fairly constant abundances for several months. These patterns are consistent with the saturation of N2O5 hydrolysis, suggesting that this reaction is the primary mechanism for the observed composition changes. The southern midlatitudes and subtropics show similar but weaker enhancements in ClO and ClONO2. In those regions, however, effects of anomalous transport dominate the evolution of HNO3 and HCl, obscuring the signs of heterogeneous processing. Perturbations in chlorine species are considerably weaker than those measured in the southern midlatitude stratosphere in 2020 following the Australian New Year's fires. The moderate HT‐HH‐induced enhancements in reactive chlorine seen throughout the southern middle and low‐latitude stratosphere, far smaller than those in typical winter polar vortices, do not lead to appreciable chemical ozone loss; rather, extrapolar lower‐stratospheric ozone remains primarily controlled by dynamical processes.

How the extreme 2019–2020 Australian wildfires affected global circulation and adjustments

Abstract. Wildfires are a significant source of absorbing aerosols in the atmosphere. Extreme fires in particular, such as those during the 2019–2020 Australian wildfire season (Black Summer fires), can have considerable large-scale effects. In this context, the climate impact of extreme wildfires unfolds not only because of the emitted carbon dioxide but also due to smoke aerosol released up to an altitude of 17 km. The overall aerosol effects depend on a variety of factors, such as the amount emitted, the injection height, and the composition of the burned material, and is therefore subject to considerable uncertainty. In the present study, we address the global impact caused by the exceptionally strong and high-reaching smoke emissions from the Australian wildfires using simulations with a global aerosol–climate model. We show that the absorption of solar radiation by the black carbon contained in the emitted smoke led to a shortwave radiative forcing of more than +5 W m−2 in the southern mid-latitudes of the lower stratosphere. Subsequent adjustment processes in the stratosphere slowed down the diabatically driven meridional circulation, thus redistributing the heating perturbation on a global scale. As a result of these stratospheric adjustments, a positive temperature perturbation developed in both hemispheres, leading to additional longwave radiation emitted back to space. According to the model results, this adjustment occurred in the stratosphere within the first 2 months after the event. At the top of the atmosphere (TOA), the net effective radiative forcing (ERF) averaged over the Southern Hemisphere was initially dominated by the instantaneous positive radiative forcing of about +0.5 W m−2, for which the positive sign resulted mainly from the presence of clouds above the Southern Ocean. The longwave adjustments led to a compensation of the initially net positive TOA ERF, which is seen in the Southern Hemisphere, the tropics, and the northern mid-latitudes. The simulated changes in the lower stratosphere also affected the upper troposphere through a thermodynamic downward coupling. Subsequently, increased temperatures were also obtained in the upper troposphere, causing a global decrease in relative humidity, cirrus amount, and the ice water path of about 0.2 %. As a result, surface precipitation also decreased by a similar amount, which was accompanied by a weakening of the tropospheric circulation due to the given energetic constraints. In general, it appears that the radiative effects of smoke from single extreme wildfire events can lead to global impacts that affect the interplay of tropospheric and stratospheric budgets in complex ways. This emphasizes that future changes in extreme wildfires need to be included in projections of aerosol radiative forcing.

The internal structure of a debris-covered glacier on Mars revealed by gully incision

Viscous flow features (VFFs) in Mars' mid latitudes are analogous to debris-covered glaciers on Earth. They have complex, often curvilinear patterns on their surfaces, which probably record histories of ice flow. As is the case for glaciers on Earth, patterns on the surfaces of VFFs are likely to reflect complexities in their subsurface structure. Until now, orbital observations of VFF-internal structures have remained elusive. We present observations of internal structures within a small, kilometer-scale VFF in the Nereidum Montes region of Mars' southern mid latitudes, using images from the Context Camera (CTX) and High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (HiRISE) instruments on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter. The VFF-internal structures are revealed by a gully incision, which extends from the VFF headwall to its terminus and intersects curvilinear undulations and a crevasse field on the VFF surface. Near to the VFF terminus, the curvilinear VFF-surface undulations connect to the VFF-internal layers, which are inclined and extend down to the VFF's deep interior, and possibly all the way to the bed. Similar structures are common near to the termini of glaciers on Earth; they form under ice flow compression where ice thins and slows approaching the ice margin, and ice flow is forced up towards the surface. We performed 3D ice flow modeling which supports this analogy, revealing that the inclined VFF-internal structures, and associated curvilinear structures on the VFF surface, are located in a zone of strong ice flow compression where ice flow deviates upwards away from the bed. The inclined VFF-internal structures we observe could represent up-warped VFF-internal layering transported up to the surface from the VFF's deep interior, or thrust structures representing debris transport pathways between the VFF's bed and its surface. Our observations raise numerous considerations for future surface missions targeting Mars' mid-latitude subsurface ice deposits. Inclined layers formed under flow compression could reduce the requirement for high-cost, high-risk deep drilling to address high-priority science questions. They could allow futures missions to (a) access ice age sequences for palaeoenvironmental reconstruction via shallow sampling along transects of ice surfaces where layers of progressively older age outcrop, and/or (b) access samples of ice/lithics transported to shallow/surface positions from environments of astrobiological interest at/near glacier beds. However, our observations also raise considerations for potential drilling hazards associated with structural complexities and potential dust/debris layers within subsurface ice deposits on Mars. They highlight the importance of characterizing VFF-surface structures, and their relationships to VFF-internal structure and ice flow histories ahead of ice access missions to Mars.

A new global coupled atmosphere-ocean wavenumber-4 pattern in Southern mid–latitudes during austral summer and its climate linkage

A new pattern referred to as the coupled ocean-atmosphere wavenumber-4 (COAW4) pattern has been identified in the Southern mid-latitudes during austral summer. This pattern consists of a wavenumber-4 pattern in the anomalous 200-hPa meridional wind and a wavenumber-4 pattern of the anomalous sea surface temperature (SST). The SST component of the COAW4 pattern, which includes the Indian Ocean Subtropical Dipole (IOSD), the South Atlantic Subtropical Dipole (SASD) and the South Pacific Subtropical Dipole (SPSD), develops through air-sea interactions involving surface turbulent heat flux, surface wind, and ocean mixed-layer depth. The atmospheric component displays a barotropic structure. The sources for COAW4 pattern include not only the wavenumber-4 pattern of the anomalous SST over Southern oceans, but also the anomalous convective activities over Southern land areas. The COAW4 pattern is associated with increased precipitation over land in southern mid-latitudes, particularly in central Australia. Furthermore, the COAW4 pattern is linked to Antarctic sea ice cover in the Weddell, Amundsen, and northern Ross Seas. Plain language summary In the southern mid-latitudes, there exists a wavenumber 4 pattern in the anomalous 200-hPa meridional wind and a wavenumber-4 pattern of the anomalous sea surface temperature (SST). Previous studies have examined the two wavenumber-4 patterns separately, but their potential linkage remains largely unknown. Through statistical analyses of SST and atmospheric global data, we demonstrated that the two wavenumber 4 patterns could be integrated into a coupled ocean-atmosphere wavenumber-4 (COAW4) pattern in Southern mid-latitudes in austral summer. Additionally, we have investigated the sources of this pattern as well as its effect on precipitation over southern lands and on Antarctic sea ice.

Enhancement of Indian summer monsoon rainfall by cross-equatorial dry intrusions

The Indian summer monsoon affects the lives of over 1/6 of the world’s population. Precipitation extremes during summer monsoons have dire socioeconomic impacts. Yet, the mechanisms leading to these extremes are poorly understood, making their accurate forecasts and reliable future projections a longstanding challenge. Using a Lagrangian-based method, we show that precipitation extremes link to dry air intrusions from the southern midlatitudes upper troposphere, crossing the equator, and reaching the Arabian Sea. By triggering intense ocean evaporation, these dry intrusions are associated with modulated moisture transport patterns toward India and enhanced precipitation by >17% on average, often embedding local extremes. A notable example is the excessive rain that caused the devastating Kerala flood of 2018. However, depending on the wind pattern, these dry intrusions may, in some cases, decrease rainfall over land. The emerging connection of rainfall variability with midlatitude weather systems opens opportunities for improving the forecast of precipitation extremes and understanding their future projections.

Palaeosecular variation in Northern Patagonia recorded by 0–5 Ma Caviahue–Copahue lava flows

SUMMARY Palaeosecular variation (PSV) determinations and studies of the geometry of the Earth’s main magnetic field provide important information about the field evolution, and to constrain numerical geodynamo models. Palaeomagnetic directional data from lava flows over the last few million years is of particular interest because the regional and global tectonic effects are minimal. However, the distribution of this type of palaeomagnetic data is uneven where the Southern Hemisphere is the destitute side. Therefore, the better knowledge of the geomagnetic field behaviour depends on the increased availability of high-quality data, especially in the Southern Hemisphere. A PSV and the time-averaged field (TAF) study was then performed in 0–5 Ma lava flows from the Caviahue–Copahue Volcanic Complex located in Northern Patagonia, Argentina (37°0′S, 71°10′W). The magnetic mineralogy of lava flows was investigated through thermomagnetic susceptibility curves, isothermal remanent magnetization (IRM) acquisition curves, hysteresis loops and first-order reversal curves (FORCs). Samples are essentially comprised of titanomagnetite with different Ti contents and magnetic domain structures typical of vortex state particles. A total of 50 volcanic sites were sampled, which provided 42 reliable palaeomagnetic site-mean directions after alternating field and thermal demagnetization. From these 42 sites, 36 are of normal and 6 are of reversed polarity. The mean direction from normal (reversed) sites is D = 356.2°, I = −50.1°, α95 = 4.0° and N = 36 (D = 176.5°, I = 59.5°, α95 = 14.1° and N = 6). Using only site-level data with the precision parameter k ≥ 100, we obtain 26 palaeomagnetic sites for PSV and TAF investigations in the study region. The filtered data set has a mean direction (D = 354.4°, I = −53.2° and α95 = 5.1°) close to the expected direction for a geocentric axial dipole (GAD) field (IGAD = −57.3°). The palaeopole (Plat = 84.4°, Plon = 229.1° and A95 = 5.7°) coincides with the Earth’s spin axis within the 95 per cent confidence interval. Virtual geomagnetic pole scatter ($S_{B} = {15.8^{18.9}_{11.8}}^{\circ }$) and the inclination anomaly ($\Delta I = 4.1_{-1.0}^{{9.2}^{\circ }}$) are both consistent at the 95 per cent confidence level with recent PSV and TAF models, respectively. Our results support the presence of small non-dipole field contributions (<3 per cent) superimposed on the GAD term, as reported by South American studies at mid southern latitudes.

Southern Hemisphere Response to the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in the CMIP5/6 Models

Abstract Using 25 quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO)-resolving models from phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5/6), this study systematically explores the Southern Hemisphere (SH) extratropical response to the QBO. The observed maximum stratospheric polar vortex–weakening response to the 20-hPa easterly QBO appears in the austral spring, which is reproduced qualitatively by seven models. The Eliassen–Palm (EP) flux convergence associated with enhanced upward propagation of waves from the SH midlatitude troposphere is also reasonably simulated following easterly QBO in these seven models. The Brewer–Dobson (BD) circulation response, especially its deep branch, has a large bias among models. The anomalous upwelling of the deep branch of the BD circulation and the cold anomalies are confined to midlatitudes above 20 hPa in reanalyses, while this deep branch is simulated to expand to the Antarctic stratosphere with unrealistically cold anomalies for some models. Models with a decent stratospheric pathway tend to simulate the observed negative Southern Annular Mode (SAM)-like response in the troposphere. Further, the largest enhanced convection center is observed over the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean and simulated by 12 models, most of which also simulate a more reasonable height anomaly pattern in the troposphere. The near-surface response to the QBO also resembles the SAM pattern with warm anomalies over eastern Antarctic, which are simulated by only five models. Seven models simulate the observed wet signals in the midlatitude southern Indo-Pacific Ocean, where an anomalous low develops. Overall, models with a better reproduction of the SH stratospheric polar vortex response exhibit a more reasonable near-surface response, though for all models the response is too weak. Significance Statement The equatorial stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) has been widely reported to influence the Northern Hemisphere. This paper focuses on the possible impact of the QBO on the Southern Hemisphere (SH) using 25 models. The maximum QBO signal in the Antarctic stratosphere forms in austral spring when the climatological vortex intensity has weakened relative to austral winter. The timing and magnitude of the QBO signal is simulated with different degrees of success by the 25 models, and those with a reasonable polar vortex response tend to better simulate the near-surface response. The QBO has another pathway for the extratropical circulation change via modifying tropical convection, and models also simulate a large spread in the tropical convection change associated with the QBO.

Antarctic shelf ocean warming and sea ice melt affected by projected El Niño changes

Antarctic shelf ocean warming affects melt of ice shelf/sheets and sea ice but projected changes vary vastly across climate models. A projected increase in El Niño variability has been found to slow future mid-latitude Southern Ocean warming but how this impacts the Antarctic shelf ocean is unknown. Here we show that a projected increase in El Niño variability accelerates Antarctic shelf ocean warming, hastening ice shelf/sheet melt but slowing sea ice reduction.

Nitrogen oxides in the free troposphere: implications for tropospheric oxidants and the interpretation of satellite NO2 measurements

Abstract. Satellite-based retrievals of tropospheric NO2 columns are widely used to infer NOx (≡ NO + NO2) emissions. These retrievals rely on model information for the vertical distribution of NO2. The free tropospheric background above 2 km is particularly important because the sensitivity of the retrievals increases with altitude. Free tropospheric NOx also has a strong effect on tropospheric OH and ozone concentrations. Here we use observations from three aircraft campaigns (SEAC4RS, DC3, and ATom) and four atmospheric chemistry models (GEOS-Chem, GMI, TM5, and CAMS) to evaluate the model capabilities for simulating NOx in the free troposphere and attribute it to sources. NO2 measurements during the Studies of Emissions and Atmospheric Composition, Clouds, and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys (SEAC4RS) and Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry (DC3) campaigns over the southeastern U.S. in summer show increasing concentrations in the upper troposphere above 10 km, which are not replicated by the GEOS-Chem, although the model is consistent with the NO measurements. Using concurrent NO, NO2, and ozone observations from a DC3 flight in a thunderstorm outflow, we show that the NO2 measurements in the upper troposphere are biased high, plausibly due to interference from thermally labile NO2 reservoirs such as peroxynitric acid (HNO4) and methyl peroxy nitrate (MPN). We find that NO2 concentrations calculated from the NO measurements and NO–NO2 photochemical steady state (PSS) are more reliable to evaluate the vertical profiles of NO2 in models. GEOS-Chem reproduces the shape of the PSS-inferred NO2 profiles throughout the troposphere for SEAC4RS and DC3 but overestimates NO2 concentrations by about a factor of 2. The model underestimates MPN and alkyl nitrate concentrations, suggesting missing organic NOx chemistry. On the other hand, the standard GEOS-Chem model underestimates NO observations from the Atmospheric Tomography Mission (ATom) campaigns over the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, indicating a missing NOx source over the oceans. We find that we can account for this missing source by including in the model the photolysis of particulate nitrate on sea salt aerosols at rates inferred from laboratory studies and field observations of nitrous acid (HONO) over the Atlantic. The median PSS-inferred tropospheric NO2 column density for the ATom campaign is 1.7 ± 0.44 × 1014 molec. cm−2, and the NO2 column density simulated by the four models is in the range of 1.4–2.4 × 1014 molec. cm−2, implying that the uncertainty from using modeled NO2 tropospheric columns over clean areas in the retrievals for stratosphere–troposphere separation is about 1 × 1014 molec. cm−2. We find from GEOS-Chem that lightning is the main primary NOx source in the free troposphere over the tropics and southern midlatitudes, but aircraft emissions dominate at northern midlatitudes in winter and in summer over the oceans. Particulate nitrate photolysis increases ozone concentrations by up to 5 ppbv (parts per billion by volume) in the free troposphere in the northern extratropics in the model, which would largely correct the low model bias relative to ozonesonde observations. Global tropospheric OH concentrations increase by 19 %. The contribution of the free tropospheric background to the tropospheric NO2 columns observed by satellites over the contiguous U.S. increases from 25 ± 11 % in winter to 65 ± 9 % in summer, according to the GEOS-Chem vertical profiles. This needs to be accounted for when deriving NOx emissions from satellite NO2 column measurements.