Mid-latitude Regions Research Articles

Observed trends in full-daytime and part-daytime thermal stress conditions in Asia

Abstract Changes in environmental thermal conditions affect thermal comfort, work performance and human health. While many studies have focused on heat and cold extremes, which are typically stressful throughout the daytime hours, fewer have examined part-daytime thermal stress conditions, where hours of thermal comfort and discomfort both occur during the daytime. Using a recently developed dataset of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) with high spatial (10 km) and temporal (hourly) resolution, we classify daytime outdoor thermal conditions of any day into the following types: full-daytime comfortable, full-daytime stressful (subdivided into 'full-daytime cold' and 'full-daytime hot'), and part-daytime stressful (including 'part-daytime cold,' 'part-daytime cool,' 'part-daytime warm,' 'part-daytime hot,' and 'wide thermal fluctuation'). We then analyze their trends and the balance between changes in heat and cold stress over the past three decades in mid- and low-latitude Asia. Here, we demonstrate that overall daytime outdoor thermal conditions have deteriorated in both low- and mid-latitude Asia. A key feature of the changes in low-latitude regions is the substantial increase in the number of full-daytime hot days and a pronounced escalation in heat stress intensity, which may make outdoor activities during the day increasingly uncomfortable and possibly unsafe. In contrast, notable aspects of the shifts in daytime thermal conditions in mid-latitude regions include a decrease in full-daytime comfortable days (conditions ideal for longer activities such as hiking and camping), and a significant rise in part-daytime hot days, which may lead people to favour shorter activities (e.g., morning walks or neighborhood biking).

Prediction of Summer Precipitation via Machine Learning with Key Climate Variables：A Case Study in Xinjiang, China

Study region: Xinjiang is located in the mid-latitude region of Eurasia in northwestern China. Precipitation is predominantly concentrated in northern Xinjiang, while southern Xinjiang remains comparatively arid. Summer precipitation accounts for 54.4% of the annual total. Study focus: This study aims to develop a machine learning model to predict summer precipitation (June–August) in XJ and explore the key variables contributing to summer precipitation in this region. The SHapley Additive exPlanations method was integrated with an extreme tree model to quantify the contributions of variables towards precipitation. Artificial neural networks, support vector machines, and extreme gradient boosting were considered to predict summer precipitation. To train the ML model, we used precipitation data from 1961 to 2012, whilst the forecast results from 2013 to 2017 were used for validation.New hydrological insights for the regions: The results demonstrated that the ANN model achieved robust performance during both the training and validation periods. For Northern and Southern XJ, the Mean Absolute Error and Root Mean Square Error of the ANN model were 15.34 (20.40) and 23.21 (30.01), respectively. The SHAP analysis showed that in the context of Northern Xinjiang, the Niño B Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly, Western Pacific Subtropical High Intensity, Pacific Subtropical High Intensity, and Multivariate ENSO Index play crucial roles in the prediction of summer precipitation. In Southern Xinjiang, the South China Sea Subtropical High Intensity, South China Sea Subtropical High Area, Western Pacific Warm Pool Strength, and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation have emerged as key variables affecting summer precipitation forecasting.

Accurate Paddy Rice Mapping Based on Phenology-Based Features and Object-Based Classification

Highly accurate rice cultivation distribution and area extraction are essential to food security. Moreover, Inner Mongolia, whose slogan is “from scientific rice to world rice”, is an essential national rice production base. However, high-quality rice mapping products at high resolutions are still scarce around the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. This condition is not conducive to rational planning of farmland resources, maintaining food security, and promoting sustainable growth of the local agricultural economy. In this study, the rice backscattering intensity difference index from the vertically polarized backscatter intensity of Sentinel-1 and the phenology differential index from the spectral indices of two critical rice phenological phases of Sentinel-2 images were constructed. Other spectral features, including spectral indices, tasseled cap, and texture features, were computed using simple non-iterative clustering (SNIC) to achieve image segmentation. These variables served as input features for the random forest (RF) algorithm. Results reveal that employing the RF with the SNIC segmentation algorithm and combining it with optical and synthetic aperture radar data is an effective way to extract data on rice in mid-latitude regions. The overall accuracy and kappa coefficient are 0.98 and 0.967, correspondingly. The accuracy for rice is 0.99, as proven by empirical data. These results meet the requirements of regional rice cultivation assessment and area monitoring. Furthermore, owing to its resilience against longitude-associated influences, the model discerns rice across diverse regions and multiple years, achieving an R2 of 0.99. This capability significantly bolsters efforts to improve regional food security and the pursuit of sustainable development.

Fractional change of scattering and absorbing aerosols contributes to Northern Hemisphere Hadley circulation expansion.

The relative amount of scattering and absorbing aerosols is essential in determining the aerosol radiative and climate effects. Using reanalysis datasets and climate simulations, here, we show that changes in the relative amount of scattering and absorbing aerosols in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) high latitudes, manifested as long-term decreasing trends in aerosol single-scattering albedo (SSA), have played an important role in driving the widening and weakening trends of the NH Hadley circulation (HC) since the early 1980s. Decreasing SSA in the NH middle and high latitudes can notably warm the troposphere there, thus reducing the equator-to-pole temperature gradient, increasing static stability in mid-latitude regions, and leading to the widening and weakening trends of NH HC. Further analysis of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) aerosol forcing-only simulations also supports the importance of SSA trends in perturbing NH HC through the above mechanism.

A Comparative Investigation of Different Ionospheric Models to Predict the MUF Parameter During Severe Geomagnetic Storm on 17th March 2015.

The present work aimed to make a comparative investigation between three different ionospheric models: IRI-2020, ASAPS and VOACAP. The purpose of the comparative study is to investigate the compatibility of predicting the Maximum Usable Frequency parameter (MUF) over mid-latitude region during the severe geomagnetic storm on 17 March 2015. Three stations distributed in the mid-latitudes were selected for study; these are (Athens (23.50o E, 38.00o N), Jeju (124.53o E, 33.6o N) and Pt. Arguello (239.50o W, 34.80o N). The daily MUF outcomes were calculated using the tested models for the three adopted sites, for a span of five-day (the day of the event and two days preceding and following the event day). The calculated datasets were compared for each location with the observed daily MUF values. In general, the findings show that the three investigated models gave good outcomes compared to the observed values for all selected stations. The comparative investigation results of the three tested models corresponding to the observed MUF values during the storm event revealed that the IRI -2020 Model indicate a clear impact of the geomagnetic storm on the predicted MUF values during the day of event. Similarly, for ASAPS Model, the storm's impact is clear on both the day of the event and the subsequent day, in contrast, the VOACAP model showed almost no impact of the geomagnetic storm on the observed MUF values throughout the entire study period for event 17 March 2015.

The Impact of Geomagnetic Storms on the Ionospheric Critical Frequency in the Northern and Southern Mid-Latitude Hemisphere Regions

In this work, the impact of different geomagnetic storm events on the plasma-sphere layer (ionosphere layer) over the northern and southern hemisphere regions was investigated during solar cycle 23. To grasp the influence of geomagnetic storms on the behavior and variation of the critical frequency parameter of the F2 ionospheric layer (foF2), five geomagnetic storms (classified as great, severe, and strong), with Disturbance storm time (Dst) values <-100 nT were chosen. Four stations located in different mid-latitude regions in northern and southern hemispheres were designated, the northern stations are: Millstone Hill (42.6° N, 288.50° W) and Rome (41.90° N, 12.50° E) and the southern stations are: Port Stanley (-51.60° S, 302.10° W) and Grahamstown (-33.30° S, 26.50° E). The findings of this study showed that during events of 16 July 2000 and 24 August 2005, the negative storms cause a noticeable reduction in the values of the foF2 parameter at the northern hemisphere stations compared to those at the southern hemisphere. These outcomes are consistent with the results of the examining the variation of D(foF2) and the electron density depletion during the tested event times at all stations except in Rome, where minor enhancements in foF2 value were observed during the August 24 2005 storm. During equinox storm events occurring on March 31 and November 6 2001, a noticeable negative impact of storms was observed across all stations. However, at Millstone Hill and Port Stanley stations, the results showed a slight positive storm impact during the October 21, 2001event.

Evaluation of Himawari-8/AHI land surface reflectance at mid-latitudes using LEO sensors with off-nadir observation

Land-surface reflectance (LSR) is a basic physical retrieval in terrestrial monitoring. The potential for high-frequency surface product estimation was evident in third-generation Geostationary Earth Orbit (3rd-GEO) satellites, substantially improving spectral, spatial, and temporal resolutions. Intercomparisons with LSR products from Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites have been employed as a common way to evaluate the LSRs of GEO satellites. However, in mid-latitude regions, comparing the LSR between two satellites is challenging due to constraints in the sun–target–sensor geometries. In this study, we proposed a method to obtain observations with consistent viewing and illumination conditions aligned with those of the Himawari-8/Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) at mid-latitudes, by utilizing forward and backward viewing cameras from LEO sensors, such as Terra/Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR). The reflectance intercomparison revealed that the estimated AHI LSR closely matched the LSR from MISR in the red and near-infrared (NIR) bands at latitudes higher than 30°N/S during 2018–2019, with correlation coefficient (r) greater than 0.8 and a relative root mean square error (RRMSE) below 25 %. The data accuracy in the NIR bands was higher than in the red band, as indicated by a lower RRMSE. The correlation was also stronger in non-forested regions compared to forested areas, with higher r values. Additionally, screening observation pairs based on the relative azimuth angle (RAA), which assumes rotational symmetry in LSR, was examined and proved effective for GEO–LEO intercomparisons. This RAA-matching criterion enables reflectance intercomparisons across a wide longitude range at mid-latitudes, including areas like mainland China and New Zealand, where ray-matching is not applicable. The reflectance consistency demonstrated by RAA matches was comparable to that of ray matches, although the RAA-matching is constrained by timing due to the solar location. The findings from this study have potential applications for other satellites.

Inversion of the planetary boundary layer height from lidar by combining UNet++ and coordinate attention mechanism

The Arctic plays a significant role in global climate, and the planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) is one of the important parameters for studying Arctic climate. The Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) North Slope of Alaska (NSA) atmospheric observatory is an important location for studying the Arctic. However, the weather at the NSA site is complicated and varied. Arctic Haze frequently appears in this region from late autumn to early summer, while low clouds are prone to occur in summer. Meanwhile, due to the consistently low temperatures on the Arctic surface, the frequency of stable boundary layer occurrence is much higher than that in mid-latitude regions. All of these will increase the difficulty of PBLH detection. To address these challenges, we propose a PBLH inversion method based on deep-learning called Coord-UNet++. This method is based on UNet++ and introduces coordinate attention mechanism which can gather features in both horizontal and vertical directions, so it can more effectively capture spatial information in images to cope with complex weather conditions. The training set for the algorithm comes from the micropulse lidar at the NSA site, and the PBLH is labeled by using the microwave radiation profiler at the same site. This algorithm can achieve accurate inversion of the PBLH in complex weather conditions such as cloudy, haze and aerosol layer interference, R2 reaches 0.87, and it performs well in long-term inversion, with much higher stability and accuracy than traditional methods.

Soil moisture determines the consistency of organic matter decomposition in field and lab test patterns

Litter decomposition serves as the primary process for soil organic matter formation and renewal. However, few studies have been conducted to validate field large-scale litter decomposition patterns. In this study, cotton strips and Solanum nigrum were used to explore the decomposition differences between standardized litter and conventional litter, along with the release of heavy metal Cadmium (Cd). The indoor characteristics of organic matter decomposition were further verified. After 6 months of Cd pretreatment, litter was placed on the surface of soil collected from 15 sites across the China for 3 months of lab tests. The results indicated that the decomposition rates of both litter types were regulated by soil moisture and generally showed a trend of deceleration from east to west, consistent with the field decomposition pattern. In addition, the mass loss of cotton strip was significantly lower than S. nigrum due to the higher Cd concentration. With the decomposition process, both litter types showed a decreasing trend in Cd concentration, especially the cotton strip. Interestingly, our study found soil factors had the highest relative influence on decomposition. A higher soil microbial moisture use efficiency in the mid-latitude region during litter decomposition may be attributed to the adaptability of microorganisms. Our research demonstrated the consistency of lab test patterns with the field experiments, emphasizing the distinctions between standardized and conventional litter. This study not only revealed the influence mechanism of soil moisture and Cd on litter decomposition rate but also emphasized the important role of microorganisms in the litter decomposition process, which provided a new perspective for a deeper understanding of the ecosystem carbon cycle and heavy metal pollution.

Contrasting influence of the 1997 and 2015 El Niño on the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall: Role of the Southern Hemisphere

This study provides comprehensive analysis on the contrasting effects caused by the 1997 and 2015 historical El Niño events linked with the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) rainfall. The presence of strong southeast-northwest oriented cold Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies during 1997, that spatially extended from southwest Pacific to Southeast Indian Ocean (SEIO) in comparison to the 2015 event is the robust feature. Evidently, these anomalies are closely related to interaction between cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation over South Pacific Convergence Zone (south Australia). During 2015, the conjunction of Modoki II and classical El Niño triggered an asymmetrical equatorial circulation throughout the Indo-western Pacific (IWP) and thereby stimulated the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) through troposphere and stratospheric pathway mechanism. In addition, in 2015, SAM impacted the Indian Ocean, which intern affected ISM rainfall. Positive SAM associated with westward shift of anticyclone over south of Australia alters the circulation by inducing westerly winds over the South Indian Ocean, thereby suppressing Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and inducing drought conditions over India during 2015. Moreover, the AUS index, an indicator for IOD strength in boreal summer, is a bridging factor prevalent over mid-latitude regions in the southern hemisphere. Results from this study indicate the complex interaction of southern hemisphere atmospheric flow and its role in modulating the Indian Ocean region thereby ISM rainfall. A better understanding of these underlying mechanism can significantly enhance the predictive skills and projections of monsoon variability and extremes.

Ionospheric Total Electron Content Response to the Intense Geomagnetic Storm of 10th -11th May 2024 over Low, Mid and High Latitude Regions

In this paper, we investigated the response of ionospheric Total electron content (TEC) to the intense geomagnetic storm of 10th - 11th May 2024 using 6 Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) stations: BAKE (Geog. Lat.64.33o N; Geog. Lon. 96.02o W), BELE (Geog. Lat. 1.41o S; Geog. Lon. 48.46o W), MBAR (Geog. Lat. 0.60o S; Geog. Lon. 30.74o E), SUTH (Geog. Lat. 32.38o S; Geog. Lon. 20.81o E), BJFS (Geog. Lat. 39.61o N; Geo. Lon. 115.89o E) and DUND (Geog. Lat. 45.88o S; Geog. Lon.170.60o E) situated over low, mid and high latitude regions. The GPS-TEC data was extracted, processed and used to plot vertical total electron content (VTEC) verses universal time (UT) from 8th to 13th May 2024 for each GNSS receiver station. A contour plot of TEC variation was also plotted for each station from 8th to 13th May 2024. The results showed TEC enhancing significantly at the beginning of the storm, during daytime at the geomagnetic equator, with the exception of MBAR, where TEC increased at night. This was attributed to the effect of prompt penetration of electric field (PPEF). A reduction in TEC was also noted on 11th May 2024, during the recovery phase over all the GNSS receiver stations. This was attributed to the effect of the disturbance dynamo electric field (DDEF) and composition change. The contour plots showed diurnal variation in TEC concentration over each GNSS receiver station. The TEC concentration however reduced during the storm period.

Spatio-temporal features of ionospheric disturbances resulting from March 2023 geomagnetic storm: Comparisons with March 2015 St. Patrick’s Day storm

This study explores the ionospheric disturbances induced by the March 2023 geomagnetic storm, offering insights into the complex interplay between space weather events and the Earth’s upper atmosphere. In this regard, data from ionospheric maps (global and regional electron contents) and topside plasma density (provided by the Swarm satellites) have been used. Furthermore, the findings are compared with those of the March 2015 St. Patrick’s Day storm of solar cycle 24, which exhibited notably similar onset conditions. The Global Electron Content (GEC) displays substantial positive surges in the African, Pacific, and American sectors, with a notable enhancement in the American sector on March 24, 2023. During the recovery phase (March-23 storm), negative storm effects are observed across all longitudinal sectors, with greater intensity at low-latitudes compared to mid-latitudes. Moreover, the study highlights discrepancies in positive storm effects when compared to the St. Patrick’s Day storm. During the March-2023, there was no positive storm effect observed in the pacific mid-latitude regions. This longitudinal difference in occurrence of positive storm may be attributed to potential influences from variations in the z-component of the interplanetary magnetic field and energy inputs into the magnetosphere. A super fountain effect is observed exclusively in the American sectors during both storms, exhibiting a noticeable hemispheric asymmetry. The non-uniform planetary distribution of disturbed thermospheric winds likely played a major role in the ionospheric asymmetry in the American region during the 2023 event.

Optimization of snow-related processes in Noah-MP land surface model over the mid-latitudes of Asian region

Snow plays a critical role in modulating surface energy, water cycles, and climate prediction. Optimizing snow-related parameterizations can enhance the model behaviors in simulating snow-related physical processes and reduce the cold bias observed in winter climate simulations in the Northern Hemisphere. In this study, the topographic complexity and wind speed were incorporated into the parameterization of the snow cover fraction (SCF) and newly fallen snow density (SFD) respectively within the Noah with multi-parameterization (Noah-MP) LSM to optimize the simulation of snow-related processes in the mid-latitude regions of East Asia. A control simulation and three sensitivity experiments were conducted to investigate and quantify the effects of topographic complexity and wind speed on the simulation of snow-related processes and land surface temperature (LST) against MODIS products. The results showed that modifications to the two schemes effectively mitigated the overestimation of snow cover and albedo, and alleviated cold biases in the most of study area. The influence of SFD scheme considering wind speed was more pronounced in regions with more snowfall and higher wind speed, while the SCF scheme considering topographic complexity showed a more widespread effect. The combination of these two modified schemes yielded the best performance. The mean biases of SCF, albedo, and LST over the entire study region with both modified schemes were reduced by 0.126 (∼63 %), 0.044 (∼41 %), and 0.584 °C (∼18 %), respectively. Their RMSEs were reduced by 0.119 (∼36 %), 0.036 (∼22 %), and 0.489 °C (∼10 %), respectively. This study highlights the importance of wind conditions and topographic complexity in the simulations of snow-related characteristics over the mid-latitudes of Asian region.

Exploring global oceanic persistence and ecological effects of legacy persistent organic pollutants across five decades.

Global monitoring of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) has intensified following regulatory efforts aimed at reducing their release. In this context, we compiled over 10,000 POP measurements, reported from 1980 to 2023, to assess the effectiveness of these legislative measures in the global marine environments. While a general decreasing trend in legacy POP concentrations is evident across various maritime regions, highlighting the success of source control measures, the Arctic Ocean and its marginal seas have experienced a rise in POP levels. This increase suggests the northward migration of pollutants via ocean currents from mid-latitude regions to polar areas. Despite global efforts to reduce emissions, the continued transport and accumulation of pollutants to the Arctic regions may have substantial ecological impacts. Addressing these environmental challenges demands a thorough understanding of POP dynamics, including response times, multiphase transport, and biogeochemical cycling. Continued research into these processes is vital to accurately map their distribution and temporal variations within marine systems.

Assessment of waterlogging hazard during maize growth stage in the Songliao plain based on daily scale SPEI and SMAI

Waterlogging is one of the major disasters affecting crop yield and food security. The Songliao Plain, located in the mid-latitude region and known as the "Golden Maize Belt," is severely impacted by waterlogging, which significantly affects maize yield. Therefore, it is essential to conduct a detailed assessment of the waterlogging hazard for maize in the Songliao Plain and to apply the results to agricultural meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation measures. In this study, a comprehensive waterlogging hazard assessment index was constructed by combining environmental factors conducive to disaster and disaster-causing factors. Environmental factors included terrain slope, distance from rivers, and soil clay content, while disaster-causing factors included daily SPEI and SMAI during the maize growing season in the Songliao Plain from 1982 to 2020. The results indicate that: (1) The spatial distribution of waterlogging hazard in the Songliao Plain ranges from extremely high to extremely low, showing a gradual decrease from west to east. The western and southern parts of the Songliao Plain, such as Baicheng, Songyuan, Changchun, and Fuxin, are more prone to waterlogging disasters. (2) During different maize growth stages, the spatial distribution of high and extremely high levels of waterlogging hazard exhibited significant heterogeneity. There were notable differences in the duration of waterlogging around the year 2000, with a reduction in the duration of extremely high and high levels of waterlogging after 2000. (3) A Pearson correlation analysis was conducted between the comprehensive waterlogging hazard index and SIF (Solar-Induced Fluorescence) data during different maize growth stages. The results showed a strong correlation between the comprehensive waterlogging hazard index and SIF data, with the highest correlation coefficient reaching −0.9 and a p-value less than 0.05. The comprehensive maize waterlogging hazard index can be used for precise and timely assessment of waterlogging hazard during different growth stages of maize, and it has a positive impact on improving the ability to prevent and mitigate waterlogging risks.

Strong temperature falls as a cold frontal metric in Australian station observations, reanalyses and climate models

AbstractCold fronts are an important component of subtropical and midlatitude weather systems. While a range of objective front detection methods exist, these methods are only applicable to gridded data and generally require smoothing and threshold parameter changes with differing spatial resolution in order to obtain similar results. This precludes analyses using these methods from using point‐location data (such as station observations) or comparing datasets with different spatial resolutions. We present a method using daily maximum temperature changes as a way of identifying strong, dry cold fronts (that is, fronts without much associated rainfall) across a range of datasets. Frontal zones identified using this method are well correlated with cold‐front locations using an objective front scheme, and results do not change significantly as data resolution changes over the range from 0.25 to 2.25°. The method is applied to generate front climatologies in 41 global climate models from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), showing these models overestimate the number of cold fronts in polar regions relative to the number over midlatitude land regions, and that there is a large intermodel spread in front occurrence. The method is also applied to southern Australian stations, showing that there are minimal trends in front occurrence for longer running stations, although an increase in front occurrence since 1950 is seen in the southeast of Australia. Interannual variability in strong front occurrence is connected to the state of both El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), with El Niño and negative SAM conditions both seeing increases in the occurrence of strong cold fronts in southeastern Australia.

Were Late Jurassic climatic fluctuations responses to Pangea breakup? Evidence from isotopic analyses of belemnite rostra from the eastern Tethyan Ocean

Late Jurassic paleogeographic patterns were influenced by the growth of the Pacific plate and the breakup of Pangea, impacting the global paleoclimate during this warm and equable greenhouse period. However, the use of different proxies may introduce bias in seawater temperature reconstructions. In this study, we reconstructed midlatitude Tethyan seawater paleotemperatures in the Northern Hemisphere using carbonate clumped isotopes (Δ47) in well-preserved parts of belemnite rostra from the Upper Jurassic Hongqilafu Formation in the Taxkorgan Basin, southwest Xinjiang, China. Throughout the entire studied section, an increase in the 87Sr/86Sr ratio was observed. Comparison of this ratio with the published global seawater 87Sr/86Sr curve suggests a good correlation with the biostratigraphic and U-Pb age assignments of the Oxfordian−Tithonian interval. The Δ47-derived paleotemperature estimates indicate a long-term, relatively stable, and warm seawater temperature of ∼27 °C within the epipelagic zone of the eastern Tethyan Ocean during the Late Jurassic. Cooler seawater temperatures were recorded at the Oxfordian−Kimmeridgian boundary and in the late Tithonian, likely reflecting changes in paleogeography and paleoceanography resulting from the breakup of Pangea and/or variations in belemnite habitat depth. When compared with global seawater temperature data from different proxies, the results suggest that elevated atmospheric pCO2 levels during the Late Jurassic may have caused warmer conditions in midlatitude and polar regions. The reconstructed δ18Osea values exhibit a remarkably modern midlatitude seawater character and are more positive than values traditionally assumed for the Jurassic ice-free world. Given that the Taxkorgan Basin was located in a semi-enclosed basin and was dominated by evaporation in the Late Jurassic, the reconstructed δ18Osea values may represent regional seawater signals. Consequently, they cannot be used to support the existence of ice sheets in both polar regions. Our results suggest that climatic changes in the Jurassic greenhouse world may have been overprinted by local factors, potentially masking broader climatic trends.

Skillful Long-Lead Seasonal Predictions in the Summertime Northern Hemisphere Midlatitudes

Abstract In contrast to boreal winter when extratropical seasonal predictions benefit greatly from ENSO-related teleconnections, our understanding of forecast skill and sources of predictability in summer is limited. Based on 40 years of hindcasts of the Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System, version 3 (CanSIPSv3), this study shows that predictions for the Northern Hemisphere summer surface air temperature are skillful more than 6 months in advance in several midlatitude regions, including eastern Europe–Middle East, central Siberia–Mongolia–North China, and the western United States. These midlatitude regions of statistically significant predictive skill appear to be connected to each other through an upper-tropospheric circumglobal wave train. Although a large part of the forecast skill for the surface air temperature and 500-hPa geopotential height is attributable to the linear trend associated with global warming, there is significant long-lead seasonal forecast skill related to interannual variability. Two additional idealized hindcast experiments are performed to help shed light on sources of the long-lead forecast skill using one of the CanSIPSv3 models and its uncoupled version. It is found that tropical ENSO-related sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies contribute to the forecast skill in the western United States, while land surface conditions in winter, including snow cover and soil moisture, in the Siberian and western U.S. regions have a delayed or long-lasting impact on the atmosphere, which leads to summer forecast skill in these regions. This implies that improving land surface initial conditions and model representation of land surface processes is crucial for the further development of a seasonal forecasting system. Significance Statement Useful seasonal predictions in the boreal summer midlatitude regions are of great value. In this study, we show that predictions for the boreal summer season are skillful more than 6 months in advance in several midlatitude regions, including eastern Europe–Middle East, central Siberia–Mongolia–North China, and the western United States. The forecast skill in these regions is associated with a circumglobal teleconnection atmospheric circulation pattern. Sources of the long-lead forecast skill include the global warming–related trend and anomalies in the ocean and land surface initial conditions. It is found that the wintertime snow cover and soil moisture in the Siberian and western U.S. regions have a delayed or long-lasting impact on the atmosphere, which leads to summer forecast skill.

Physiological resilience of intertidal chitons in a persistent upwelling coastal region

Current climate projections for mid-latitude regions globally indicate an intensification of wind-driven coastal upwelling due to warming conditions. The dynamics of mid-latitude coastal upwelling are marked by environmental variability across temporal scales, which affect key physiological processes in marine calcifying organisms and can impact their large-scale distribution patterns. In this context, marine invertebrates often exhibit phenotypic plasticity, enabling them to adapt to environmental change. In this study, we examined the physiological performance (i.e., metabolism, Thermal Performance Curves, and biomass and calcification rates) of individuals of the intertidal mollusk Chiton granosus, a chiton found from northern Peru to Cape Horn (5° to 55°S). Our spatial study design indicated a pattern of contrasting conditions among locations. The Talcaruca site, characterized by persistent upwelling and serving as a biogeographic break, exhibited lower pH and carbonate saturation states, along with higher pCO2, compared to the sites located to the north and south of this location (Huasco and Los Molles, respectively). In agreement with the spatial pattern in carbonate system parameters, long-term temperature records showed lower temperatures that changed faster over synoptic scales (1–15 days) at Talcaruca, in contrast to the more stable conditions at the sites outside the break. Physiological performance traits from individuals from the Talcaruca population exhibited higher values and more significant variability, along with significantly broader and greater warming tolerance than chitons from the Huasco and Los Molles populations. Moreover, marked changes in local abundance patterns over three years suggested population-level responses to the challenging environmental conditions at the biogeographic break. Thus, C. granosus from the Talcaruca upwelling zone represents a local population with wide tolerance ranges that may be capable of withstanding future upwelling intensification on the Southern Eastern Pacific coast and likely serving as a source of propagules for less adapted populations.

Tropical tropospheric ozone distribution and trends from in situ and satellite data

Abstract. Tropical tropospheric ozone (TTO) is important for the global radiation budget because the longwave radiative effect of tropospheric ozone is higher in the tropics than midlatitudes. In recent decades the TTO burden has increased, partly due to the ongoing shift of ozone precursor emissions from midlatitude regions toward the Equator. In this study, we assess the distribution and trends of TTO using ozone profiles measured by high-quality in situ instruments from the IAGOS (In-Service Aircraft for a Global Observing System) commercial aircraft, the SHADOZ (Southern Hemisphere ADditional OZonesondes) network, and the ATom (Atmospheric Tomographic Mission) aircraft campaign, as well as six satellite records reporting tropical tropospheric column ozone (TTCO): TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI), Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), OMI/Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), Ozone Mapping Profiler Suite (OMPS)/Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2), Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS), and Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI)/Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment 2 (GOME2). With greater availability of ozone profiles across the tropics we can now demonstrate that tropical India is among the most polluted regions (e.g., western Africa, tropical South Atlantic, Southeast Asia, Malaysia and Indonesia), with present-day 95th percentile ozone values reaching 80 nmol mol−1 in the lower free troposphere, comparable to midlatitude regions such as northeastern China and Korea. In situ observations show that TTO increased between 1994 and 2019, with the largest mid- and upper-tropospheric increases above India, Southeast Asia, and Malaysia and Indonesia (from 3.4 ± 0.8 to 6.8 ± 1.8 nmol mol−1 decade−1), reaching 11 ± 2.4 and 8 ± 0.8 nmol mol−1 decade−1 close to the surface (India and Malaysia–Indonesia, respectively). The longest continuous satellite records only span 2004–2019 but also show increasing ozone across the tropics when their full sampling is considered, with maximum trends over Southeast Asia of 2.31 ± 1.34 nmol mol−1 decade−1 (OMI) and 1.69 ± 0.89 nmol mol−1 decade−1 (OMI/MLS). In general, the sparsely sampled aircraft and ozonesonde records do not detect the 2004–2019 ozone increase, which could be due to the genuine trends on this timescale being masked by the additional uncertainty resulting from sparse sampling. The fact that the sign of the trends detected with satellite records changes above three IAGOS regions, when their sampling frequency is limited to that of the in situ observations, demonstrates the limitations of sparse in situ sampling strategies. This study exposes the need to maintain and develop high-frequency continuous observations (in situ and remote sensing) above the tropical Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, western Africa, and South Asia in order to estimate accurate and precise ozone trends for these regions. In contrast, Southeast Asia and Malaysia–Indonesia are regions with such strong increases in ozone that the current in situ sampling frequency is adequate to detect the trends on a relatively short 15-year timescale.