MFSTEP Project Research Articles

Operational ocean forecasting in the Eastern Mediterranean: implementation and evaluation

Abstract. The Cyprus Coastal Ocean Forecasting and Observing System (CYCOFOS) has been producing operational flow forecasts of the northeastern Levantine Basin since 2002 and has been substantially improved in 2005. CYCOFOS uses the POM flow model, and recently, within the frame of the MFSTEP project, the flow model was upgraded to use the hourly SKIRON atmospheric forcing, and its resolution was increased from 2.5 km to 1.8 km. The CYCOFOS model is now nested in the ALERMO regional model from the University of Athens, which is nested within the MFS basin model. The Variational Initialization and FOrcing Platform (VIFOP) has been implemented to reduce the numerical transient processes following initialization. Moreover, a five-day forecast is repeated every day, providing more detailed and more accurate information. Forecast results are posted on the web page http://www.oceanography.ucy.ac.cy/cycofos. The new, daily, high-resolution forecasts agree well with the ALERMO regional model. The agreement is better and results more reasonable when VIFOP is used. Active and slave experiments suggest that a four-week active period produces realistic results with more small-scale features. For runs in September 2004, biases with remote sensing sea surface temperature are less than 0.6°C with similar expressions of the flow field present in both. Remotely-observed coastal upwelling south of Cyprus and advection of cool water from the Rhodes Gyre to the southern shores of Cyprus are also modeled. In situ observed hydrographic data from south of Cyprus are similar to the corresponding forecast fields. Both indicate the relatively fresh subsurface Atlantic Water and a near-surface anticyclone south of Cyprus for August/September of 2004 and September 2005. Plans for further model improvement include assimilation of observed XBT temperature profiles, CTD profiles from drifters and gliders, and CT data from the CYCOFOS ocean observatory.

Assimilation of ocean colour data into a Biogeochemical Flux Model of the Eastern Mediterranean Sea

Abstract. An advanced multivariate sequential data assimilation system has been implemented within the framework of the European MFSTEP project to fit a three-dimensional biogeochemical model of the Eastern Mediterranean to satellite chlorophyll data from the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS). The physics are described by the Princeton Ocean Model (POM) while the biochemistry of the ecosystem is tackled with the Biogeochemical Flux Model (BFM). The assimilation scheme is based on the Singular Evolutive Extended Kalman (SEEK) filter, in which the error statistics were parameterized by means of a suitable set of Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs). To avoid spurious long-range correlations associated with the limited number of EOFs, the filter covariance matrix was given compact support through a radius of influence around every data point location. Hindcast experiments were performed for one year over 1999 and forced with ECMWF 6 h atmospheric fields. The solution of the assimilation system was evaluated against the assimilated data and the MedAtlas climatology, and by assessing the impact of the assimilation on non-observed biogeochemical processes. It is found that the assimilation of SeaWiFS data improves the overall behavior of the BFM model and efficiently removes long term biases from the model despite some difficulties during the spring bloom period. Results, however, suggest the need of subsurface data to enhance the estimation of the ecosystem variables in the deep layers.

MedArgo: a drifting profiler program in the Mediterranean Sea

Abstract. In the framework of the EU-funded MFSTEP project, autonomous drifting profilers were deployed throughout the Mediterranean Sea to collect temperature and salinity profile data and to measure subsurface currents. The realization of this profiler program in the Mediterranean, referred to as MedArgo, is described and assessed using data collected between June 2004 and December 2006 (including more than 2000 profiles). Recommendations are provided for the permanent future implementation of MedArgo in support of operational oceanography in the Mediterranean Sea. More than twenty drifting profilers were deployed from research vessels and ships-of-opportunity in most areas of the Mediterranean. They were all programmed to execute 5-day cycles with a drift at a parking depth of 350 m and CTD profiles from either 700 or 2000 m up to the surface. They stayed at the sea surface for about 6 h to be localised by, and transmit the data to, the Argos satellite system. The temperature and salinity data obtained with pumped Sea-Bird CTD instruments were processed and made available to the scientific community and to operational users in near-real time using standard Argo protocols, and were assimilated into Mediterranean numerical forecasting models. In general, the cycling and sampling characteristics chosen for the MedArgo profilers were found to be adequate for the Mediterranean. However, it is strongly advised to use GPS and global cellular phone telemetry or the future Argos bi-directional satellite system in order to avoid data compression and losses, for the continuation of the Mediterranean drifting profiler program.

Improved near real time surface wind resolution over the Mediterranean Sea

Abstract. Several scientific programs, including the Mediterranean Forecasting System Toward Environmental Predictions (MFSTEP project), request high space and time resolutions of surface wind speed and direction. The purpose of this paper is to focus on surface wind improvements over the global Mediterranean Sea, based on the blending near real time remotely sensed wind observations and ECMWF wind analysis. Ocean surface wind observations are retrieved from QuikSCAT scatterometer and from SSM/I radiometers available at near real time at Météo-France. Using synchronous satellite data, the number of remotely sensed data available for each analysis epoch (00:00 h; 06:00 h; 12:00 h; 18:00 h) is not uniformly distributed as a function of space and time. On average two satellite wind observations are available for each analysis time period. The analysis is performed by optimum interpolation (OI) based on the kriging approach. The needed covariance matrixes are estimated from the satellite wind speed, zonal and meridional component observations. The quality of the 6-hourly resulting blended wind fields on 0.25° grid are investigated trough comparisons with the remotely sensed observations as well as with moored buoy wind averaged wind estimates. The blended wind data and remotely wind observations, occurring within 3 h and 0.25° from the analysis estimates, compare well over the global basin as well as over the sub-basins. The correlation coefficients exceed 0.95 while the rms difference values are less than 0.30 m/s. Using measurements from moored buoys, the high-resolution wind fields are found to have similar accuracy as satellite wind retrievals. Blended wind estimates exhibit better comparisons with buoy moored in open sea than near shore.

The M3A multi-sensor buoy network of the Mediterranean Sea

Abstract. A network of three multi-sensor timeseries stations able to deliver real time physical and biochemical observations of the upper thermocline has been developed for the needs of the Mediterranean Forecasting System during the MFSTEP project. They follow the experience of the prototype M3A system that was developed during the MFSPP project and has been tested during a pilot pre-operational period of 22 months (2000–2001). The systems integrate sensors for physical (temperature, salinity, turbidity, current speed and direction) as well as optical and chemical observations (dissolved oxygen, chlorophyll-a, PAR, nitrate). The south Aegean system (E1-M3A) follows a modular design using independent mooring lines and collects biochemical data in the upper 100 m and physical data in the upper 500 m of the water column. The south Adriatic buoy system (E2-M3A) uses similar instrumentation but on a single mooring line and also tests a new method of pumping water samples from relatively deep layers, performing analysis in the protected "dry" environment of the buoy interior. The Ligurian Sea system (W1-M3A) is an ideal platform for air-sea interaction processes since it hosts a large number of meteorological sensors while its ocean instrumentation, with real time transmission capabilities, is confined in the upper 50 m layer. Despite their different architecture, the three systems have common sampling strategy, quality control and data management procedures. The network operates in the Mediterranean Sea since autumn 2004 collecting timeseries data for calibration and validation of the forecasting system as well for process studies of regional dynamics.

Simulations of ARGO profilers and of surface floating objects: applications in MFSTEP

Abstract. In this work we describe part of the activities performed in the MFSTEP project by means of numerical simulations of ARGO profilers and surface floating objects. Simulations of ARGO floats were used to define the optimal time cycling in order to maximize independent observations of vertical profiles of temperature and salinity and to minimize the error on the estimate of the velocity at the parking depth of the profilers. Instead, the Mediterranean Forecasting System archive of Eulerian velocity field from 2000 to 2004 was used to build a related surface Lagrangian archive, systematically integrating numerical particles released and constrained to drift at surface. Here we use such Lagrangian archive to study the interannual variability of the surface Lagrangian transport in two key areas of the Western Mediterranean, also introducing an exponential decay in the particles concentration.

Modelling the cohesive sediment transport in the marine environment: the case of Thermaikos Gulf

Abstract. The transport of fine-grained sediments in the marine environment entails risks of pollutant intrusions from substances absorbed onto the cohesive flocks' surface, gradually released to the aquatic field. These substances include nutrients such as nitrate, phosphate and silicate compounds from drainage from fertilization of adjacent cultivated areas that enter the coastal areas through rivers and streams, or trace metals as remainders from urban and industrial activities. As a consequence, knowledge on the motion and distribution of sediment particles coming from a given pollutant source is expected to provide the 'bulk' information on pollutant distribution, necessary for determining the region of influence of the source and to estimate probable trophic levels of the seawater and potential environmental risks. In that aim a numerical model has been developed to predict the fate of the sediments introduced to the marine environment from different pollution sources, such as river outflows, erosion of the seabed, aeolian transported material and drainage systems. The proposed three-dimensional mathematical model is based on the particle tracking method, according to which matter concentration is expressed by particles, each representing a particular amount of sedimentary mass, passively advected and dispersed by the currents. The processes affecting characteristics and propagation of sedimentary material in the marine environment, incorporated in the parameterization, apart from advection and dispersion, include cohesive sediment and near-bed processes. The movement of the particles along with variations in sedimentary characteristics and state, carried by each particle as personal information, are traced with time. Specifically, concerning transport processes, the local seawater velocity and the particle's settling control advection, whereas the random Brownian motion due to turbulence simulates turbulent diffusion. The vertical stratification of the water-column is taken into consideration by appropriate damping of the vertical diffusion term. Variations in cohesive sediment properties during the abidance in the aquatic environment include coagulation and flock break-up processes, quantification of the effects of ambient density to the density of the cohesive aggregate and the associated alterations to the falling speed of the particle. In the vicinity of the seabed, particles may deposit and gradually consolidate with time, the particles remain settled onto the bed, re-enter the flow at a later temporal point or may enter the water column for the first time, originating from the erosion of the bed. The occurrence of each of the aforementioned near-bed processes is defined according to the prevailing benthic shear stress conditions. The mathematical model has been applied to the Thermaikos Gulf, an area of high environmental and socioeconomic importance but also a region of significant pollutant forcing from various anthropogenic activities taking place in the adjoining land. Various kinds of outputs can be extracted, such as trajectories of the overall movement of specific particles and related alterations of their characteristics with time, snapshots of the domain with respect to suspended or deposited matter and natural concentrations of sediments at every required temporal and spatial point. Indicative results from yearly and monthly simulations, using input baroclinic circulation data from the North Aegean Sea model and river discharges are presented and discussed, including outputs from a Typical One-Year Simulation (TOYS), the simulation of the period from 3 September 2001 to 31 August 2002 (S1A2) and the January 2003 experiment (J03). The description of the processes that have been incorporated in the parameterization covers the most significant factors controlling transport and mixing of fine grained sediments in the marine environment, thus validating the accuracy and completeness of the model. One of the major advantages, apart from the observation of the phenomena in scales smaller than the grid size, describing the natural processes more accurately, is the flexibility in accepting various pollutant sources and the applicability to different domains with minor modifications. The model has been incorporated in the MFSTEP project, as part of the developed operational forecasting system for the Mediterranean Sea. The application can be used for the prognosis of the seawater quality for current and for future conditions, enabling employment as part of a near-real time observation system or to formulate decisions for the protection of the seawater environment.

Transformation of Levantine Intermediate Water tracked by MEDARGO floats in the Western Mediterranean

Abstract. A clustering methodology is applied to investigate the thermohaline structure of Levantine Intermediate Water (LIW) in the western Mediterranean basin. Sixteen free-drifting hydrographic profilers were deployed in the framework of the MFSTEP project (MEDARGO component) from September 2003. A total of 925 CTD profiles collected up to the beginning of February 2006 have been used in the analysis. The results are in good agreement with the general circulation scheme for intermediate waters in the basin and confirm the hypothesis about a "discrete-continuous" thermohaline structure of LIW.

Implementation of position assimilation for ARGO floats in a realistic Mediterranean Sea OPA model and twin experiment testing

Abstract. In this paper, a Lagrangian assimilation method is presented and implemented in a realistic OPA OGCM with the goal of providing an assessment of the assimilation of realistic Argo float position data. We focus on an application in the Mediterranean Sea, where in the framework of the MFSTEP project an array of Argo floats have been deployed with parking depth at 350 m and sampling interval of 5 days. In order to quantitatively test the method, the "twin experiment" approach is followed and synthetic trajectories are considered. The method is first tested using "perfect" data, i.e. without shear drift errors and with relatively high coverage. Results show that the assimilation is effective, correcting the velocity field at the parking depth, as well as the velocity profiles and the geostrophically adjusted mass field. We then consider the impact of realistic datasets, which are spatially sparse and characterized by shear drift errors. Such data provide a limited global correction of the model state, but they efficiently act on the location, intensity and shape of the described mesoscale structures of the intermediate circulation.

Atmospheric forcing by ALADIN/MFSTEP and MFSTEP oriented tunings

Abstract. ALADIN/MFSTEP is a configuration of the numerical weather prediction (NWP) model ALADIN run in a dedicated real-time mode for the purposes of the MFSTEP Project. A special attention was paid to the quality of atmospheric fluxes used for the forcing of fine-scale oceanographic models. This paper describes the novelties applied in ALADIN/MFSTEP initiated by the MFSTEP demands, leading also to improvements in general weather forecasting.

Assimilation of Argo float positions in the north western Mediterranean Sea and impact on ocean circulation simulations

Assimilation of Argo float trajectories (350m parking depth) in a high resolution model of the Mediterranean Sea has been performed to test the importance of this type of data for operational systems. Starting from a state corresponding to the 28th year of the simulation, two experiments were performed, one with assimilation and one without, during three months in winter 2005. Four Argo floats released in the context of the MFSTEP project are used. The results are very encouraging, showing significant and consistent changes in the ocean circulation. Comparison with independent data of transport through the Channel of Corsica indicates that the results are more realistic with assimilation, showing a non negligible impact of the assimilation process on the large scale circulation of the basin.