Mexican Voters Research Articles

The AMLO Voter: Affective Polarization and the Rise of the Left in Mexico

What prompted so many voters in Mexico to abandon the traditional parties and support MORENA and its candidate, Andrés Manuel López Obrador? This research relies on data from Mexico's National Electoral Study (2018). The results show that support for López Obrador is strongly associated with affective polarization and the perception that the PRI and PAN represented the same political alternative. In turn, retrospective evaluations and ideology were not associated with López Obrador's victory. This research note contributes to our understanding of Mexico's historical elections as well as to the broader literature on the Latin American left. The success of the political left in Mexico is not rooted on voters’ programmatic preferences. Similar to the decay of mainstream political parties in other Latin American countries, in 2018, Mexican voters rejected the mainstream political establishment by supporting Lopez Obrador's third bid for the Presidency.

Determining Electoral Preferences in Mexican Voters by Computational Intelligence Algorithms

In the context of political activities, electoral processes are of interest for scientists, who usually tackle their research on this field from a social sciences perspective. Computational methods have been applied to predict the electoral preferences of voters in several countries; however, this has not happened in Mexico, at least as indicated by the absence in current scientific literature of computational studies to determine voting intentions of Mexican citizens. The authors of the present work aim at reverting such absence. The proposal of this paper consists of applying Computational Intelligence methods to automatically determine electoral preferences of Mexican voters. For this, data acquired by the Secretaría de Gobernación (Secretary of the Interior), about voting intentions of Mexican citizens in the 2012 elections are used. In the voter classification stage, a modified version of the Gamma Associative Classifier (MGAC) is used, given that this is one of the relevant models of the Associative approach to Pattern Classification. Additionally, Differential Evolution is employed to guide the process of relevant features selection. Results indicate that, when compared over six data sets extracted from the information published by the Secretaría de Gobernación, our proposal exhibits the best performance in three of these data sets, outperforming some of the best similar models present in the state of the art.

Self-Referencing and Political Candidate Brands: A Congruency Perspective

Although political and marketing analysts commonly describe political candidates as brands, the conceptualization of political candidates as brands within academic research and popular culture is uncommon. This paper presents empirical evidence in support of viewing candidates as such. Using data from a nationwide study that measures the self concept of Mexican voters and their perceived images of the presidential candidates in Mexico's 2006 election, the paper demonstrates that voters see themselves and each candidate as a distinct brand. Furthermore, this view of a voter's self-brand influences his or her perception of a political candidate's brand image. The academic and managerial implications of these findings are discussed.

Pronóstico electoral para el Distrito Federal en la elección de 2012

<p>A partir del análisis comparado de los resultados de algunas encuestas de opinión, el presente artículo plantea escenarios político-electorales posibles, principalmente en el Distrito Federal, para las elecciones que se celebrarán en 2012. <span style="font-size: 10px;">Aunque la capital del país ha sido gobernada por el PRD desde 1997, se ha desarrollado un nuevo contexto electoral debido a que Enrique Peña Nieto, candidato presidencial del PRI, ha aumentado su popularidad entre los electores mexicanos, repercutiendo este hecho en la disminución de la simpatía política por el PRD en la Ciudad de México, así como en la simpatía política por el partido gobernante, el Partido Acción Nacional.</span></p>

The 2012 Presidential Election and What It Reveals about Mexican Voters

AbstractThe 2012 presidential election in Mexico is significant for many reasons, not least of which is that it returned the Partido Revolucionario Institucional to power after two Partido Acción Nacional administrations. This essay reviews more than 50 surveys taken before and during the election to determine significant patterns among Mexican voters, comparing the most influential traditional and non-traditional demographic variables, as well as other variables such as partisanship and policy issues in this election, with those of the two previous presidential races. It also analyses other influential variables in the 2012 presidential race, including social media and the application of new electoral legislation. It identifies significant differences and similarities among voters today in contrast to the two prior elections, and suggests long-term patterns among Mexican voters which are likely to influence voting behaviour in future elections, ranging from regionalism and gender to partisanship and social media.

Social Class and Voter Preference in Recent Mexican Elections

The influence of social class on the decisions of Mexican voters is, according to recent literature, modest and irrelevant. In this paper I reassess the role of class in the presidential elections of 2000 and 2006. After discussing how social class should be conceptualized and measured in election surveys, I analyze exit poll data from these two elections. The results show that class is a potent force in Mexican elections and that the middle class, in particular, has played a critical role in the transformation of Mexican politics.

Nothing Happened and Then It Did: A Chronicle in Fact and Fiction (review)

Reviewed by: Nothing Happened and Then It Did: A Chronicle in Fact and Fiction Barbara Barney Nelson Nothing Happened and Then It Did: A Chronicle in Fact and Fiction. By Jake Silverstein. New York: W. W. Norton, 2010. 231 pages, $14.95. This first book by a brilliant young writer may help us all see literature differently. It is also a perfect choice for those searching for a creative writing text. Silverstein weaves a magical spell between alternating chapters labeled either “fact” or “fiction.” Chapter 1 introduces Silverstein as a naïve young journalist in the small town of Marfa, Texas, working for The Big Bend Sentinel (fact); from there, he chases a story of severe drought that he imagines will surely result in his first Pulitzer Prize (fiction); then on to a strange poetry contest in Reno, Nevada (fact), a successful treasure hunt (fiction), the first McDonald’s in Zacatecas (fact), and back and forth across the Texas/Mexico border several more times. Silverstein is a master at both fiction and nonfiction: his facts are hard to believe; by contrast, his fiction is believable. Characters in the fiction chapters challenge the journalist in the fact chapters. “You know what the problem is with journalists?” muses one. “You don’t have enough responsibility. You don’t realize that anything you say, any rumor you put in there, people will think that’s the truth. You can’t ever make them change their minds after they saw it in the paper” (168). Wallace Stegner’s incorporation of Mary Hallock Foote’s writing began a heated debate about the role of nonfiction in fiction and vice versa. Some argue that writers are free to blend fact with fiction because in great literature, it doesn’t matter which is which. Silverstein argues that it absolutely does matter. Even a detail as seemingly unimportant as a wealthy Mexican American’s addiction to Thousand Island salad dressing can be critical to his political career if Mexican voters see it as a symbol of his Gringoization. In one nonfiction chapter, the young reporter is out hunting an overly sensational story about devils and witches in Redford, causing an old man to worry about the young man’s sanity. The old [End Page 448] man probably suspects that the young reporter has heard too many wild stories about curanderos being witches and owls used as their familiars. So he offers the young reporter a cup of water (dehydration often causes hallucinations) and stresses reality over witchcraft: “An owl is a bird” (16). Silverstein juxtaposes exciting fictional accounts against boring facts, and the facts win every time. The earnest young reporter’s inexperienced nose for a great story leads him down cold trails, dead ends, and wild goose chases. He finds what others have missed, but doesn’t recognize their importance. For his big story on drought, his fictional persona gets only a shrug from ranchers living in the arid West and their acceptance of aridity as simply a characteristic of the place they have chosen as home. Perhaps that nails what a drought means to ranchers living in the arid West, but such a brief story, the young reporter recognizes, won’t win him a Pulitzer. Though his fictionalized persona is trumped and embarrassed by a fictionalized reporter from The New Yorker time after time, Silverstein the writer turns out to be someone to ride the river with. His respectful representations of place, culture, and self are dead on. The book is filled with hilarious small moments, as when an interview subject bends over to talk to the reporter’s notebook as if it were a tape recorder (fiction), when he counts snow globes on someone’s desk instead of paying attention to the boring local news (fact), or when he arms himself with a silly list of questions before an interview (fiction). Silverstein’s fictionalized self once tells a bellman, “I’m with The New Yorker,” when he is simply being paid to drive for the story’s photographer (35). The book is also full of serious moments such as when a fictionalized National Geographic fact-checker hopes writers will produce fodder for his “scorn for...

How Did We Get Here? Mexican Democracy after the 2006 Elections

On July 2, 2006, Mexican voters elected National Action Party (PAN) candidate Felipe Calderón as the next president of Mexico. Calderón's victory was extremely narrow; he won under 36% of the total vote and less that 0.6% more than his leftist rival, Andrés Manuel López Obrador. This potentially problematic situation was aggravated by López Obrador's decision to challenge Calderón's victory, both in the courts and in the streets. López Obrador's protest campaign culminated on September 16, when tens of thousands of his followers gathered in downtown Mexico City to acclaim him “legitimate president” of Mexico. Meanwhile, in the legislature, leaders of López Obrador's Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) oscillated between hints that they would collaborate with Calderón's administration and signs that they would adopt a posture of untrammeled hostility.

Mexico's Pivotal Democratic Election: Candidates, Voters, and the Presidential Campaign of 2000 (review)

Table of Contents List of Figures List of Tables Preface Abbreviations Glossary of Mexican words and phrases Contributors 1. Introduction Chappell Lawson I. The Electoral Context 2. Citizen Attitudes toward Democracy and Vicente Fox's Victory in 2000 Roderic Ai Camp 3. Mobilized Voting in the 2000 Elections: The Changing Efficacy of Vote-Buying and Coercion in Mexican Electoral Politics Wayne A. Cornelius 4. Political Reform, Electoral Participation, and the Campaign of 2000 Chappell Lawson and Joseph L. Klesner II. Parties and Candidates 5. The Structure of the Mexican Electorate: Social, Attitudinal, and Partisan Bases of Vicente Fox's Victory Joseph L. Klesner 6. The Making of the Mexican President, 2000: Parties, Candidates, and Campaign Strategy Kathleen Bruhn 7. Primary Priming James A. McCann III. Campaign Messages and Voter Responses 8. Television Coverage, Vote Choice, and the 2000 Campaign Chappell Lawson 9. Mexico's Great Debates: The Televised Candidate Encounters of 2000 and Their Electoral Consequences Chappell Lawson 10. The Effects of Negative Campaigns on Mexican Voters Alejandro Moreno 11. Strategic Coordination in the 2000 Mexican Presidential Race Beatriz Magaloni and Alejandro Poire 12. The Issues, the Vote, and the Mandate for Change Beatriz Magaloni and Alejandro Poire 13. Conclusions: Why and How Did Mexico's 2000 Presidential Election Campaign Matter? Jorge I. Dominguez Appendix I Mexico 2000 Panel Study Notes Index Library of Congress Subject Headings for this publication: Presidents Mexico Election 2000, Elections Mexico, Mexico Politics and government 1988-Political campaigns Mexico, Political parties Mexico

Democratic Transition? The 1997 Mexican Elections

Mexico's 1997 midterm elections promise to democratize Mexico's autocratic and centralized presidentialist regime and thereby change Mexican politics profoundly. The electoral blow dealt the Institutional Revolutionary Party (Partido Revolucionario Institucional, or PRI) by voters on July 6 brings an elected mayor to the world's largest city, places more non-PRI governors into Mexican state houses assuring that demands for decentralization will intensify, and takes from President Ernesto Zedillo the congressional basis for the six-year dictatorship that the Mexican presidency has been since the 1930s. Surely the struggle for democracy in Mexico is not over, but a critical battle has been won by democrats of all ideological persuasions. Zedillo himself claimed, in an address to the nation made shortly after the preliminary electoral figures appeared on election night, to be pleased by the progress made by his nation, saying that the day had been a “great democratic fiesta” (Zedillo 1997, 7).Unlike most elections, the critical issues facing Mexican voters in 1997 had little to do with public policy. Although Mexico is a dozen years into a neoliberal economic restructuring program that has had great consequences for the distribution of income, for the number of Mexicans living in poverty, and for the penetration of foreign capital, goods, and services into the Mexican economy (see Otero 1996), neoliberalism was only peripherally an issue in this election. Both major parties of opposition campaigned on the issue of tax relief, specifically promising to lower Mexico's value added tax from 15% to 10% (Mayolo and Luna 1997, A1; Chacón Albarrán 1997).

Democratic Transition? The 1997 Mexican Elections

Mexico's 1997 midterm elections promise to democratize Mexico's autocratic and centralized presidentialist regime and thereby change Mexican politics profoundly. The electoral blow dealt the Institutional Revolutionary Party (Partido Revolucionario Institucional, or PRI) by voters on July 6 brings an elected mayor to the world's largest city, places more non-PRI governors into Mexican state houses assuring that demands for decentralization will intensify, and takes from President Ernesto Zedillo the congressional basis for the six-year dictatorship that the Mexican presidency has been since the 1930s. Surely the struggle for democracy in Mexico is not over, but a critical battle has been won by democrats of all ideological persuasions. Zedillo himself claimed, in an address to the nation made shortly after the preliminary electoral figures appeared on election night, to be pleased by the progress made by his nation, saying that the day had been a “great democratic fiesta” (Zedillo 1997, 7).Unlike most elections, the critical issues facing Mexican voters in 1997 had little to do with public policy. Although Mexico is a dozen years into a neoliberal economic restructuring program that has had great consequences for the distribution of income, for the number of Mexicans living in poverty, and for the penetration of foreign capital, goods, and services into the Mexican economy (see Otero 1996), neoliberalism was only peripherally an issue in this election. Both major parties of opposition campaigned on the issue of tax relief, specifically promising to lower Mexico's value added tax from 15% to 10% (Mayolo and Luna 1997, A1; Chacón Albarrán 1997).

Democratizing Mexico: public opinion and electoral choices

In this study of Mexican public opinion and elections, the authors examine the attitudes and behaviours of Mexican voters from the 1950s to the 1990s and find evidence of both support for and increasing independence from the nation's ruling party. They make extensive use of polls conducted during the 1988, 1991 and 1994 national elections and draw from in-depth interviews with leading political figures, including presidential candidates. Although the 1994 presidential election showed that Mexican citizens are making their opinions known and felt at the polls, Dominguez and McCann argue that Mexico cannot be considered a democracy as long as party elites fail to ensure truly free and fair elections.

Shaping Mexico's Electoral Arena: The Construction of Partisan Cleavages in the 1988 and 1991 National Elections

In the 1988 and 1991 national elections, Mexican voters asked themselves above all whether they continued to support the long-ruling official party. Voter behavior was not well explained by attachments to social cleavages, attitudes on policy issues, or general assessments about the present circumstances and the prospects for the nation's economy or personal finances. In both elections, moreover, the parties of the Left failed to mobilize voters that had chosen to abstain in past elections. Once voters were ready to oppose the ruling party, however, differences by issue, prospective economic assessments, and social cleavages shaped their choice between the opposition parties.

Congressional Campaigning in Mexico: A View From the Provinces

On July 2, 1967, Mexican voters elected representatives to the Chamber of Deputies, the lower house of the national legislature. By law the Chamber is completely renewed every three years, and members cannot succeed themselves. Throughout the country, the elections took place smoothly and without serious disturbances. The State of Yucatán, remote and isolated from the major political and economic centers of the country, quietly participated following an election campaign that was reserved and orderly.