Mexican Peso Research Articles

An Exploration of the Relative Influence of the Determinants of the Mexican Peso - U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate

This article examines the impact over time of the government’s primary balance, remittances, foreign direct investment expectations, and real interest rates on the Mexican peso to US dollar exchange rate between 2003 and 2023, using monthly and quarterly data. An autoregressive distributed lag model with bounds testing and a Granger non-causality test are employed. The results indicate that, although the significance of all variables changes over time, foreign direct investment expectations and the government’s primary balance influence the exchange rate throughout the entire period. Foreign direct investment expectations and remittances exert the most persistent long- and short-run influence, respectively. The evolving significance across time of these determinants implies the need of a dynamic and adaptable policy framework to currency stability in Mexico.

From carry trades to trade credit: Financial intermediation by non-financial corporations

We use detailed firm-level data from Mexico to document that non-financial corporations engage in carry trades by borrowing in foreign currency (FX) and lending in domestic currency, largely in the form of trade credit, accumulating currency risk in the process. Firms are more active in carry-trades when FX borrowing is relatively cheaper and build currency risk by accumulating peso assets. We use the 2009 Mexican peso depreciation to show that firms that were more active in carry trades experienced larger reductions in investment. Nevertheless, their extension of trade credit remained stable, insulating their trading partners from their balance sheet exposure to the shock.

The role of the tourism sector in creating direct employment in Mexico: evidence from linear and nonlinear ARDL frameworks

This paper analyzes the role of the tourism sector in creating direct employment in Mexico by measuring the output elasticity of tourism employment from both linear and nonlinear perspectives. Although using such elasticity is a common practice for calculating the impact of economic growth on employment, it has been neglected in the context of the tourism labor market. Using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) models, this study analyzes the impact of both the quarterly indicator of tourism gross domestic product (GDP) and the multilateral real exchange rate on tourism employment from the first quarter of 2006 to the first quarter of 2021. The results of the linear models show that tourism employment is elastic to variations in tourism GDP. Conversely, the NARDL model illustrates that tourism employment is inelastic to both positive and negative changes in tourism GDP. However, the NARDL model also shows that tourism employment is resilient to the negative phases of growth in the sector, as it grows more during the expansive episodes than it is reduced during the contractive phases. Meanwhile, the models including the multilateral real exchange rate show that tourism employment positively responds to the depreciation of the Mexican peso.

Cost-benefit analysis of alternative tax policies on sugar-sweetened beverages in Mexico.

In 2014, Mexico implemented a tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) equivalent to one Mexican peso (MP) per liter to address the high obesity prevalence. This tax has effectively reduced SSB purchases and yielded healthcare savings; however, it remains unknown whether SSB taxes lead to net benefits at the societal level in Mexico. Moreover, public health experts recommend increasing the tax. The objective of this study is to estimate the net benefits of SSB taxes compared to a scenario of no tax in urban Mexico. Taxes include the one-MP tax and alternative higher taxes (two and three MP per SSB liter). Thus, we conducted a cost-benefit analysis from the perspective of the government, producers, and consumers for a simulated closed cohort of adults in a life-table model. We defined net benefits as the difference between economic benefits (the value of statistical life, healthcare savings, and tax revenue) and costs (consumer surplus and profit losses). We found that, at the societal level, all simulated taxes will eventually generate benefits that surpass costs within ten years. Overall net benefits can reach USD 7.1 billion and 15.3 billion for the one-MP and the three-MP tax, respectively. Hence, these benefits increased at a declining rate compared to taxes. The government and consumers will experience overall positive net benefits among society's members. Policymakers should consider time horizons and tradeoffs between health gains and economic outcomes across different society members.

An Estimation of the Mexican Peso´s Overvaluation for 2023

We estimate the overvaluation of the Mexican peso for the second quarter and June 2023. The equilibrium real exchange rate is approximated by reestimating a cointegration equation where the variable of interest depends on Mexico's GDP, the US Industrial Production Index, the sum of private consumption, the government consumption and exports of Mexico, and US private fixed investment. We use these variables to approximate the relative supply and demand of the two countries. Under certain assumptions, we estimate that the Mexican peso is overvalued by 13.7% and 15.3% in the second quarter and in June 2023, respectively, with information available as of mid-July of the same year. We provide an estimate of the nominal exchange rate compatible with the elimination of the exchange rate misalignment, if this variable were the only one that adjusts.

CBDC-MXN: Challenges and Perspectives in The Implementation as a Mexican Digital Currency

This research shows a proposal for developing of a Mexican Central Bank Digital Currency by Banco de México. Therefore, a dynamic SWOT matrix is used to present the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats of the development of the Mexican Central Bank Digital Currency. In addition, an analysis of the stablecoins of the Mexican peso is made to know their landscape and current use, the above making use of Blockchain explorers such as BscScan, Etherscan, Polygonscan, and Tronscan. MMXN, Moneta Digital, is the stablecoin of the Mexican Peso with the most significant number of users and transactions. According to the results obtained, it is shown that the Mexican CBDC is viable, but it must overcome challenges and issues to be implemented and used by the population.

Frequency-domain and time-varying asymmetric Granger causality between real effective exchange rates and remittances in Mexico

The sheer size of remittances has fostered an interest in investigating the consequences of these flows, particularly in remittance-dependent economies. This study relies on monthly data from 1995M01 to 2021M05 and uses both frequency-domain and time-varying causality approaches to investigate the asymmetric causality relationships between real effective exchange rates and remittances in Mexico. Two key results are obtained. First, according to the frequency domain causality test results, positive shocks to remittances lead to appreciation in the Mexican peso in the medium- and long-run cycles, but negative shocks to remittances do not lead to depreciation in the Mexican peso, thus suggesting non-asymmetry. Second, the results of time-varying causality based on heterogeneous errors support asymmetric behavior between real effective exchange rates and remittances, underscoring the importance of allowing asymmetries when investigating the causal relationship.

The impact of us elections on the dollar’s exchange rate

This paper explores the effect of U.S. domestic politics on the behaviour of international currency markets. Specifically, for the first time in the literature, we gauge the impact of a divided government on the exchange rate volatility of five currencies: the Japanese yen, the Canadian dollar, the British pound, the Mexican peso, and the euro. At the same time, we control for the impact of political and macroeconomic factors. A GARCH methodology has been adopted for this objective, using weekly data from 2000 to 2021. The evidence suggests that the partisan and divided government variables significantly impact the conditional variance equation, whilst the observed reduced levels of exchange rate volatility during a Democrat presidency run counter to prior studies on partisanship. In addition, exchange rate volatility seems to increase one month before an election and during periods of divided government. Given the nascent evidence, we argue that U.S. politics are instrumental in affecting global financial markets.

EXAMINING MEAN AND VOLATILITY SPILLOVER IN FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKETS: THE TURKISH CASE

Bu çalışmada Euro, İngiliz sterlini, Japon yeni, Brezilya reali, G.Afrika randı, Meksika pesosu ve G.Kore wonu ile Türk lirası arasındaki getiri ve volatilite yayılımı Cheung-Ng (1996) testi ile incelenmiştir. Analizlerde volatilite serilerindeki yapısal kırılmalar da dikkate alınmıştır. Volatilitenin modellenmesinde FIGARCH modelinden, volatilite serilerindeki yapısal kırılmaların belirlenmesinde ise Bai ve Perron (1998, 2003) testinden yararlanılmıştır. Getiri yayılımına ilişkin bulgular; Japon yeni, İngiliz sterlini, Meksika pesosu ile G.Afrika randından Türk Lirasına doğru tek yönlü bir getiri yayılımının söz konusu olduğunu; Türk lirası ile Brezilya reali, Euro ve G.Kore wonu arasında ise çift yönlü bir getiri yayılımının bulunduğunu göstermektedir. Volatilite yayılımına ilişkin bulgular ise inceleme kapsamındaki tüm para birimlerinin volatilitesinin Türk lirası volatilitesi üzerinde etkili olduğunu, fakat Türk lirası volatilitesinin daha çok kendi iç dinamiklerinden kaynaklandığını göstermektedir. Çalışma bulguları hem uluslararası yatırımcılar hem de politika yapıcılar için önemli sonuçlar içermektedir.

The Typology of The Global Financial Crisis and the Solution in Islamic Economic Perspective

Economic globalization has triggered more frequent financial crises. Financial crises constantly repeat every specific time. This article reviews the typology of the global financial crisis and the solutions offered by Islamic economics. The research uses a historical approach. Five typologies of the global financial crisis, namely: Speculative bubbles and Crash, Sovereign Default, Balance of payment crisis, systemic banking crisis, and Energy Crisis. The financial crisis typologies of Speculative bubbles and Crash are the Wall Street Crash of 1929 and the Great Depression, Black Monday, Japanese Asset Bubble, Dot-com Bubble, US Saving & Loan Crisis, and the Suprime Mortgage Crisis. The financial crisis typology of Sovereign Default is the Latin American Debt Crisis, the Mexican Peso Crisis, the Asian Financial Crisis, and the European Crisis. The typology of financial crisis Balance of payment crisis is the Mexican Peso Crisis and the Russian Financial Crisis. The financial typology of the energy crisis is the oil crisis. Islamic economics offers a solution so that the financial crisis does not recur in the future. The prohibition of riba, maysir and ghaarar transactions offers a solution to the financial crisis typology of Speculative bubbles and Crash. The principle of equity financing in Islamic economics is a solution to the financial crisis of the Sovereign Default typology. Islamic economics prioritizes the financial sector, which is in line with the real sector as a solution to the financial crisis typology of the Balance of payment crisis. The value of morality (akhlakul karimah) is a solution to the financial crisis because of the moral hazard.

Oil prices and Mexico’s exchange rates in North America

Evidence indicates that since the early 2000s, the central bank in Mexico has been able to implement a solid and credible monetary policy, which has resulted in maintaining the purchasing power of the Mexican peso. Motivated by such evidence and the fact that Mexico (like Canada and the US) is a major oil-producing country, we set out to examine the dynamic relationship among oil prices and Mexico-Canada and Mexico-US exchange rates for 2000–2020. Our findings indicate that (i) these series are co-integrated and possess a long-run equilibrium relationship, (ii) oil prices asymmetrically respond to eliminate disequilibrium and (iii) both Mexico-Canada and Mexico-US exchange rates are weakly exogenous. Such findings point to the success of the central bank in largely shielding Mexico’s exchange rates from oil price fluctuations in the NAFTA region.

A multicountry measure of comovement and contagion in international markets: definition and applications

This paper introduces a new measure of comovement and contagion of crises between countries, applies it to 16 world crises, including the current COVID-19 pandemic, and provides insights regarding the occurrence of contagion during these crises. Our measure demonstrates several important advantages over the extant measures of contagion. Traditional measures of contagion, such as increase in correlation, could be limited in scope since they are bivariate, whereas contagion is often a regional or global market phenomenon. The multiple comparisons that the binary correlations require in such cases could yield inconclusive or contradictory results and fail to capture the broad effects of the crisis on the regions. Moreover, during crises, a country’s stock market volatility often increases, a phenomenon that could lead to a spurious indication of increased correlation with other countries (contagion). Corrections for this bias have been suggested, but they could adversely affect the power of the contagion tests and fail to detect genuine contagion. Using simulations, we show the robustness of our measure to changes in volatility and demonstrate its power to affirm instances of genuine contagion. Support for the power of our measure relative to an extant leading measure of contagion is also provided by analysis of the cases of the 1994 Mexican peso crisis, the 1997 East Asian crisis, and Black Monday, the 1987 US stock market crash.

Policy Signaling and Foreign Electoral Uncertainty: Implications for Currency Markets

AbstractThis paper examines the effects of foreign electoral shocks on currency markets. I develop a theory of signaling and uncertainty to explain why elections in countries with close economic ties should affect exchange rates. Methodologically, this paper focuses on several case studies, with the 2016 US election as a central case. I utilize an event analysis framework to measure the impact of the election on the Mexican peso by exploiting the plausible exogeneity of Donald Trump's tweets. I also measure changes in the peso using Trump's predicted chance of winning the election and show that the peso is weakest when Trump has the highest chance of winning the election. In addition, I include a series of robustness checks and analyses of other notable recent cases when electoral uncertainty affected currencies in other countries, including the 2018 Brazilian election. The results quantify the effect of foreign elections on exchange rates, building on the existing literature that focuses on how domestic elections shape currency markets. I conclude with a discussion of the external validity of the phenomenon demonstrated by the cases in the paper, charting future research on the topic and outlining ways to extend the findings.

Time-varying risk aversion and currency excess returns

This paper documents an economically significant risk premium associated with a currency’s sensitivity to time-varying risk aversion. Consequently, an investment strategy that takes a long (short) position in currencies with high (low) sensitivity to aggregate market risk aversion yields significantly positive excess returns. While advanced market currencies including the Euro, Yen and Swiss Francs dominate the short end of these portfolios with low sensitivity to risk aversion, emerging market currencies including the Brazilian Real, Mexican Peso and Turkish Lira are found to be the most sensitive currencies to risk aversion. The excess returns from the proposed strategy are significant even after controlling for systematic equity market risk factors as well as liquidity risk and cannot be explained by measures of economic conditions or uncertainty. Interestingly, the excess returns generated by the risk aversion-based strategy are found to have significant loadings on global momentum, suggesting possible commonality in the behavioral drivers of anomalies in the global equity and currency markets. The findings highlight the role of behavioral factors as predictor of currency excess returns with significant investment implications.

Simulating international tax designs on sugar-sweetened beverages in Mexico.

In response to the high prevalence of overweight and obesity, Mexico implemented a volumetric tax of one Mexican peso (MP) per liter of sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) in 2014. In contrast to Mexico's volumetric tax design, the United Kingdom (UK) and South Africa (ZA) implemented SSB taxes based on sugar density. This kind of tax is likely to yield larger health benefits than volumetric taxes by imposing a larger tax burden on high-sugar SSB and/or encouraging reformulation. However, sugar-density taxes might yield lower tax revenues. This study aims to simulate the effect of sugar-density taxes as those in the UK and ZA on SSB purchases (in terms of volume and sugar), SSB prices, and tax revenue in Mexico and compare this effect to its counterpart under the current volumetric SSB tax. Additionally, we simulate the effect of sugar-density taxes under different scenarios of reformulation. We conducted all these simulations based on a structural model of demand and supply using household purchase data for 2012-2015 in urban Mexico. We found that the current volumetric one-MP tax led to an SSB purchase reduction of 19% for both volume and sugar and an SSB price increases by MP $1.24. We simulated similar effects under the UK and ZA sugar-density taxes when these taxes were equivalent to the volumetric one-MP tax, and there was no reformulation. When assuming reformulation, the sugar reduction under the sugar-density taxes was up to twice larger than the volumetric one-MP tax. However, we found that the volumetric one-MP tax yielded the largest tax revenue across all tax designs. From a public health perspective, sugar-density taxes are likely to be more effective in tackling the overweight and obesity prevalence in Mexico; however, tax revenue might be lower under these taxes.

Cryptocurrency in context of fiat money functions

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the ability of cryptocurrencies to fulfill three main money functions: medium of exchange, a unit of account, and store of value by applying a designated methodical approach to examine each currency function separately. The paper contributes to the scant literature on the subject as well as combines the accumulated knowledge of cryptocurrencies and comprehensively examines cryptocurrencies according to the mentioned functions. In this paper, cryptocurrencies are examined and studied not only from the perspective of strong fiat currencies but also include the currencies of developing countries, thus expanding the range of research on this topic and providing a broader approach. The cryptocurrencies examined are Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple. In addition, data were collected on major exchange rates with respect to the Euro, namely, the United States dollar, Australian dollar, Swiss franc, Swedish krona, Japanese yen, Chinese Yuan, Russian ruble, Mexican peso, Argentine peso, South African rand. Finally, the following major stock market indices were selected: S&P500, FTSE, as well as commodity Gold. The study applied statistical analysis methods, Spearman correlation, cluster analysis, linear regression.

Uncertainty and exchange rate volatility: Evidence from Mexico

This paper analyzes the effect of different types of uncertainty by implementing an in-depth case study of Mexican peso US dollar exchange rate volatility. The paper exploits unique data from the Banco de México's Survey of Professional Forecasters to construct four distinct, direct knightian uncertainty measures, and two macro surprise measures. These measures, as well as text-based and financial data based measures common in the literature, are used to test for distinct uncertainty effects. Exchange rate volatility during 1999–2018 is regressed onto uncertainty measures capturing both domestic and international, economic and political uncertainty. The main results show higher knightian uncertainty leads to higher exchange rate volatility. While both domestic and international measures affect exchange rate volatility, international uncertainty measures based on text and financial data (the global EPU and the VIX) and our novel survey-based knightian measure of domestic political uncertainty dominate. The paper also presents evidence of an amplifying effect of domestic economic uncertainty on exchange rate volatility during recession periods. The results are robust to different exchange rate volatility measures and different specifications.

Directional predictability in foreign exchange rates of emerging markets: New evidence using a cross-quantilogram approach

This study investigates the directional predictability of exchange rates in emerging markets. Using a cross-quantilogram model, we show that dependencies among emerging markets exchange rates are heterogeneous. Specifically, the Mexican peso, Brazilian real, and Turkish lira are leading emerging market currencies that provide hedging opportunities for currency investors. The structural dependencies across the pairs of exchange rates are evident at lag 1, and the relationships dissipate at longer lags. Secondly, the partial cross-quantilogram results indicate that oil is not a driving force of interrelationship among the exchange rates. Furthermore, the estimations of cross-quantile correlations from recursive subsamples reveal time-variant traits. If policymakers and financial regulators focus on comovements among emerging market currencies and distinguish net recipients from net transmitters in different environments, they can devise a surveillance system to adjust the market interdependence effects across emerging market foreign exchange rates. Therefore, they can promote the stability of emerging market currencies.

The Influence of International Tourism on the Food, Drinks, and Tobacco Industry: Empirical Evidence from Mexico

ABSTRACT The development of the food, drink and tobacco industry (FDTI) is essential to ensure food security, generate employment, and increase production output. In this study, we analyse the relationship between international tourism and FDTI in Mexico. The study used three Autoregressive Distributed Lag models which provide evidence that tourism, whether measured by the number of arrivals or by average expenditure, has a positive effect on FDTI growth. The results also revealed that depreciation of the Mexican peso has a positive effect on FDTI. These results suggest that international tourism has the potential to boost agribusiness and development in rural areas.

EXTREME VOLATILITY DEPENDENCE IN EXCHANGE RATES

This paper aims to analyse asymmetric volatility dependence in the exchange rate between the British Pound, Japanese Yen, Euro, and Mexican Peso compared to the U.S. dollar during different periods of turmoil and calm sub-periods between (1994-2018). GARCH and TARCH models are employed to model conditional