Reliability Assessment Method Research Articles

A Reliability Assessment Method for Complex Systems Based on Non-Homogeneous Markov Processes

A Reliability Assessment Method for Complex Systems Based on Non-Homogeneous Markov Processes

CCZM‐based fatigue analysis and reliability assessment for wind turbine blade adhesive joints considering parameter uncertainties

AbstractWind turbine blades are complex structures composed of multiple bonded components. The fatigue performance of these adhesive joints is crucial for ensuring operational safety over the blade's lifespan. Traditional structural fatigue analysis methods are inadequate for evaluating the fatigue properties of these joints due to the unique characteristics of adhesive materials. Variations in material and dimensional parameters, as well as fluctuating operational loads, further complicate the fatigue analysis of adhesive joints in wind turbine blades. To tackle this issue, this study introduces a fatigue analysis and reliability assessment method for the adhesive joints of wind turbine blades, employing the Cyclic Cohesive Zone Model (CCZM) and accounting for parameter uncertainties. Specifically, a novel methodology for fatigue analysis based on the CCZM is presented. The methodology is programmatically implemented to obtain a fatigue life dataset through multiple simulations, considering uncertainties in material parameters, adhesive dimensions, and loads. Subsequently, a fatigue reliability model is formulated to evaluate the fatigue reliability of adhesive joints in wind turbine blades under different parameter conditions, and the sensitivity of fatigue reliability to each parameter is investigated. The findings offer valuable insights for improving the safety and reliability of adhesive structures in wind turbine blades.

An approach to estimate the low cycle fatigue probabilistic curves of PBF-LB/M 316L steel from small size datasets using the remora optimization algorithm

The significant dispersion in fatigue properties is a prevalent attribute observed in metals manufactured by the Additive Manufacturing (AM). To ascertain the safety of components subjected to low cycle fatigue (LCF) loadings at a temperature of 550 °C, it is necessary to carry out a fatigue reliability assessment of AM metals. Nevertheless, the number of LCF life tests is limited owing to time-consuming nature of test and high total production cost of AM materials. Such a small size dataset cannot satisfy the criteria of the traditional reliability assessment method. This work aims to develop a novel method to evaluate the LCF reliability of 316L stainless steel manufactured by laser-based powder bed fusion of metals (PBF-LB/M) technology. Firstly, the Weibull model is coupled with the Coffin-Manson-Basquin relationship in order to characterize the dispersion of life data points at various strain levels. Secondly, reliability results from a small size dataset show a maximum relative error in fatigue life of less than 25 %, which is similar to results from a large size dataset and the traditional method using fatigue data from public sources. Among this step, the remora optimization algorithm is firstly applied to calculate the characteristic parameters of newly-proposed method. Thirdly, the LCF reliability of PBF-LB/M 316L based on the small size dataset is evaluated. The N95% is equivalent to 44 % of N50%. Finally, the PBF-LB/M 316L is compared with traditional 316L considering the reliability. The LCF properties of PBF-LB/M 316L is similar to the traditional 316L at 50 % reliability, however it’s slightly worse at 95 % reliability.

Quantile-based sequential optimization and reliability assessment method under random and interval hybrid uncertainty

Under random and interval hybrid uncertainties, solving hybrid reliability based design optimization (HRBDO) can acquire an optimal balance between structural performance and reliability. Since solving HRBDO includes a triple nested framework involving minimum analysis of performance function (PF), failure probability constraint analysis and design parameter optimization, the computational complexity of HRBDO is high, especially for dealing with complex structures. Therefore, a quantile-based sequential optimization and reliability assessment method (QSORA) is proposed for reducing the computational complexity of HRBDO. In the proposed QSORA for HRBDO, failure probability constraint is firstly transformed into minimum PF (MPF) quantile one corresponding to target failure probability. Then, approximating the difference between PF and its target quantile at current iteration by that at previous one, the failure probability constraint analysis is decoupled from the design parameter optimization. Moreover, by approximating the minimum point of the PF with respect to the interval input in the current iteration by that in the previous one, the minimum analysis of PF is separated from the design parameter optimization. By the separation of minimum analysis and failure probability constraint analysis from the design parameter optimization in the proposed QSORA, the triple nested framework of HRBDO is decoupled sequentially as the deterministic design optimization, the minimum analysis of the PF and the target MPF quantile estimation, and this way of reconstructing the HRBDO from the triple nested framework to three single-loop frameworks can significantly enhance the efficiency of solving HRBDO. Furthermore, the MPF quantile at the current design parameter is estimated by stochastic collocation based statistical moment method, in which the stochastic collocation method is employed to efficiently estimate the MPF moment to approximate the probability density function of MPF. The efficiency and accuracy of the QSORA are validated by four numerical and engineering examples finally.

A Method of Reliability Assessment Based on Trend Analysis for Open Source Software

Software reliability growth model (SRGM) is used as one of the reliability assessment methods to assess the software reliability. In SRGM, the degree of reliability growth may fluctuate greatly according to change in the internal state of the software. It is called the change point (CP). Several researchers proposed the SRGM considering CP. In the open source software (OSS), there are many projects that continue development even after the software is released. Therefore, major updates with breaking changes may occur in it. The major updates can be a factor that causes a CP because it greatly changes the internal state of the OSS. This paper focuses on the relationship between CP and software updates. We collect OSS fault data from a bug tracking system. Moreover, we examine the behavior of SRGM before and after software updates. Furthermore, we discuss the applicability of SRGM for CP in OSS. Also, we compare the proposed model based on CP with the model without CP. As a result, we have confirmed that the SRGM can evaluate the reliability in the environment with major updates. Moreover, the proposed method performs better than without considering CP model. Especially, the exponential model’s mean value function is the suitable method to assess the OSS reliability for the proposed method.

Enhancing Human Reliability Prediction in Smart Tower Crane Interfaces: A Refined Approach Using Simplified Plant Analysis Risk–Human Reliability Assessment and the Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory–Analytic Network Process

With the advent of Industry 4.0, the prevalence of tower cranes equipped with hook visualization is increasing. However, the introduction of new interface management tasks has led to novel patterns of human errors for operators. The Simplified Plant Analysis Risk–Human Reliability Assessment (SPAR-H) method has emerged as a relevant approach for the prediction of human reliability in smart construction tower crane operations. However, the current SPAR-H method is only partially applicable and does not fully meet the requirements of this study. Initially, a text mining approach (TF-IDF-TruncatedSVD-ComplementNB) was employed to identify operator error-specific terms in tower crane operations. These terms were then correlated with the eight Performance Shaping Factors (PSFs) of the SPAR-H method, and corresponding failure modes and potential causes were determined from the literature. This ensured a more objective selection of influencing factors and PSFs during the stratification process, which was validated through questionnaire surveys. Furthermore, standards for SPAR-H PSF levels were established based on the characteristics of tower crane operators. Given the inherent complexity of relationships among SPAR-H PSFs, the DEMATEL-ANP method was applied. This involved analyzing logical interactions and causal relationships between first-level and second-level indicators of PSFs, obtaining weights, and integrating these with the SPAR-H method to determine human reliability. Finally, an analysis and validation were conducted using a case study of an accident involving a smart construction tower crane, confirming the subsequent reliability of operator actions. The result of the accident case study yielded a reliability measure of 4.2 × 10−5. These findings indicate that the evaluation process of this method aligns with scenarios encountered in smart construction tower crane operations.

BiGResi: Robust bit-level fault injection framework for assessing intrinsic software resilience against soft errors

Radiation-induced soft errors, despite rare, pose a significant threat to the reliability of systems. Assessing the intrinsic resilience of software to soft errors is therefore essential for building fault-tolerant systems cost-effectively. Analytical models, while fast, can be imprecise. In contrast, Fault Injection (FI) has been successfully applied as a mature method for reliability assessment. While high-level FI offers less accuracy, existing low-level techniques can enhance resilience assessment accuracy by sacrificing some desirable features like fault coverage and intrusiveness. Furthermore, these techniques are often driven by random FI campaigns, making establishing a clear correlation between application characteristics and resilience challenging. This paper presents BiGResi, a versatile software-based framework for assessing software resilience. BiGResi overcomes the limitations of random, instruction type-agnostic FI techniques by evaluating resilience at a low-level granularity, considering instruction type and bit location. Furthermore, it targets the instruction set architecture (ISA), enhancing assessment accuracy by revealing architecturally visible faults. BiGResi employs a timing-based FI mechanism with negligible modifications to the target software, minimizing intrusiveness and ensuring near-native speed. BiGResi’s accuracy is empirically evaluated through many FI campaigns targeting different benchmarks with diverse characteristics. We observed that instruction types, ISA encoding bits, and bit location are key factors to consider when assessing software resilience. Finally, BiGResi’s effectiveness is demonstrated by selectively applying instruction protection, resulting in an average reduction of silent data corruptions (SDCs) by 73.80%, with a performance overhead of 15.46%. Furthermore, allowing a slightly higher overhead of 22% can improve the SDC detection rate by up to 93.83%.

Reliability Assessment for Integrated Seaport Energy System Considering Multiple Thermal Inertia

With the rapid development of global trade, a large number of goods and resources are imported and exported via seaports. Multiple thermal loads and renewable energy merge into seaports, making the energy supply and demand structure increasingly complex. The traditional seaport becomes an integrated seaport energy system (ISES). Due to the complicated energy interaction of cooling, heating, electricity, and gas subsystems, the ISES urgently require reliable and secure operation. Hence, this paper proposes a new reliability assessment method for the ISES that considers thermal inertia. Firstly, the operational structure of the ISES is established considering multi-energy coupling relationships. Then, a two-stage optimal load curtailment model is constructed with multiple thermal inertias. In addition, the reliability assessment method for the ISES is proposed based on the sequential Monte Carlo simulation method. Simulations are presented to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.

OSS reliability assessment method based on deep learning and independent Wiener data preprocessing

OSS reliability assessment method based on deep learning and independent Wiener data preprocessing

Reliability assessment of integrated electricity and district cooling systems considering the thermal dynamics of pipelines and buildings

The tight interactions between energy sectors increase the risk of affecting integrated energy systems (IESs); therefore, reliability assessment is important for identifying vulnerability and improving security in IESs. In the literature, the network topology, transmission loss, and distinguishing thermal dynamics in IESs are seldom addressed for reliability assessment, rendering the results unreliable. To bridge this gap, an integrated electricity and district cooling model is formulated for IESs that involves elaborate network topologies and transmission losses to reflect their impacts on reliability characteristics. In addition, the evaluation of reliability indices for district cooling systems is improved by considering the thermal inertia characteristics of buildings and the transportation delay of circulating water to characterize the reliability levels of district cooling systems more accurately. Numerical results using a 12-node case validate the improved accuracy of the proposed reliability assessment method and reveal the potential of district cooling systems for enhancing the reliability of power systems.

A Novel SMFL-Based Assessment Method for Corrosion Nonuniformity of Rebar and Its Application in Reliability Analysis of Corroded RC Beam

The reliability of corroded reinforced concrete (RC) structures relies on the accurate minimum cross-sectional area of corroded rebar. In this study, the accurate morphologies and self-magnetic flux leakage (SMFL) field strengths of twenty-eight non-uniformly corroded rebars were obtained using 3D structural light scanning and micromagnetic detection technologies, based on which three indices of the SMFL field variation ratio dH, the corrosion non-uniformity degree dSn, and the cross-sectional area ratio K0.25 are proposed. The statistical results show that the probability densities of dSn and K0.25 obey the Weibull distribution and Gamma distribution at the 95% confidence level, respectively, and their distribution parameters are linearly or inversely proportional to dH. The probability density distribution of the minimum cross-sectional area of corroded rebar can be determined using indices dSn and K0.25, based on which a feasible SMFL-based reliability assessment method of corroded RC structures is proposed. The case study of a real specific corroded RC beam shows that the reliability assessment error of the SMFL-based method is only 1.2%, which is much lower than the 20.7% error of the existing method. This SMFL-based method provides a novel idea that can automatically and accurately assess the effect of rebars’ corrosion non-uniformity on the reliability of specific in-serviceRC structures.

AK-SYS-IE: A novel adaptive Kriging-based method for system reliability assessment combining information entropy

Structural reliability assessment is a popular topic in engineering problems, particularly for the larger and more complex systems with implicit performance functions, also called black-box problems. The reliability assessment for a black-box problem must continuously be computed using simulation models, such as the finite element model, a highly time-consuming process with a high computational cost. The adaptive Kriging has gained considerable attention over the past decade. The Kriging-based reliability assessment method reduces the computational cost to a great extent, on the premise of ensuring the accuracy of reliability assessment. However, many of the currently published system reliability assessment methods, construct adaptive Kriging models by reducing the probability of incorrect prediction of the system state, and do not make full use of the uncertainty of the system state prediction information. To this end, a new Kriging-based method for structural system reliability assessment is proposed in this study. First, the probabilities of incorrect or correct system state predictions were understood from the perspective of information entropy. Second, an active learning strategy is proposed based on information entropy theory. Finally, the advantages of the proposed method are demonstrated and highlighted through several numerical examples. The results show that the proposed method achieves a good balance between the accuracy and computational cost, and the numerical magnitude effect does not affect the computational cost. Moreover, this is an effective method for assessing the reliability of complex systems.

Generic fully coupled framework for reliability assessment of offshore wind turbines under typical limit states

Offshore wind turbines (OWTs) generally experience harsh marine environments with uncertainties in marine loads, soil properties, and material properties; therefore, the structural integrity assessment of OWTs is a challenging task. Most of the previously proposed methods for reliability assessment are time-consuming and neglect the coupling effects of aerodynamics, hydrodynamics, and OWT structural dynamics under complex environmental loads. In this study, a fully coupled framework for the reliability assessment of OWTs is proposed, in which a dynamic simulation tool in the time domain is combined with surrogate models. The established Kriging, multivariate regression, and support vector regression surrogate models are compared to determine the most feasible model. Furthermore, the influence of different solving methods, such as first-order reliability method (FORM), importance sampling (IS), and subset simulation (SS), on the estimation of structural reliability indexes are discussed. The superiority of the estimated reliability indexes in the safety assessment of OWTs is proved using the SS method based on the Kriging surrogate model. Subsequently, the potential failure modes of an OWT under different operational states are revealed, indicating that excessive tower vibrations must be eliminated for stable power production from OWTs. Furthermore, the SS method is found to be feasible as it ensures the estimation accuracy of the reliability indexes of the parked OWT based on Kriging and the other surrogate models. Finally, the significance of soil–structure interactions in the reliability index estimation is investigated, and the equivalent coupled spring boundary is proposed from the perspectives of structural safety and simulation accuracy.

Reliability Assessment of Integrated Power and Road System for Decarbonizing Heavy-Duty Vehicles

With the continual expansion of urban road networks and global commitments to net zero, electric vehicles (EVs) have been considered to be the most viable solution to decarbonize the transportation sector. In recent years, the electric road system (ERS) has been introduced and piloted in a few countries and regions to decarbonize heavy-duty vehicles. However, little research has been carried out on its reliability. This paper fills the gap and investigates the reliability of electric truck power supply systems for electric road (ETPSS–ER), which considers both the power system and truck traffic networks. First, a brief introduction of electric roads illustrates the working principle of EV charging on roads. Then, an optimized electric truck (ET) travel pattern model is built, based on which the corresponding ET charging load demand, including both static charging and dynamic charging, is conducted. Then, based on the new ET travel pattern model, a daily travel-pattern-driven Monte Carlo simulation-based reliability assessment method for ETPSS–ER system is presented. Case studies based on the IEEE RBTS system shows that ETs driving on ERS systems can meet the daily travel demands. The case studies also examine the impacts of increasing number of ETs, extra wind power, and battery energy storage systems (BESS) on the reliability of ERS power systems.

Uncertainty‐oriented thermoelastic topology optimization with stress constraint

AbstractThe material redistribution abilities of traditional deterministic topology optimization are effective in addressing stress‐related design issues in thermal elastic structures. However, uncertainties are inevitable in real‐world. The structural strength of a design, achieved through deterministic topology optimization, is highly susceptible to these uncertainties, which may result in failure. This article introduces a novel method for topology optimization in stress‐constrained thermoelastic structures, taking into account the uncertainties associated with heat sources and loads. We employ the Kieisselmeier–Steinhauser function to aggregate the stress constraint when constructing the performance function. In order to improve optimization efficiency, the sequential optimization and reliability assessment method is used to decouple the double‐layer loop reliability‐based topology optimization. Initially, we derive the derivative of stress‐based performance functions with respect to heat source and load uncertainty variables, thereby facilitating the use of modified chaos control for assessing structural reliability and imposing constraints. The adjoint method and chain rule are utilized to obtain the derivative information of the performance function with respect to density variables, guiding the topology updates. We present five design examples to demonstrate the effectiveness of the presented method. Monte Carlo simulations for the optimized results are performed to show that the presented method can obtain a structure that meets reliability requirements.

A Systematic Literature Review on Hardware Reliability Assessment Methods for Deep Neural Networks

Artificial Intelligence (AI) and, in particular, Machine Learning (ML), have emerged to be utilized in various applications due to their capability to learn how to solve complex problems. Over the past decade, rapid advances in ML have presented Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) consisting of a large number of neurons and layers. DNN Hardware Accelerators (DHAs) are leveraged to deploy DNNs in the target applications. Safety-critical applications, where hardware faults/errors would result in catastrophic consequences, also benefit from DHAs. Therefore, the reliability of DNNs is an essential subject of research. In recent years, several studies have been published accordingly to assess the reliability of DNNs. In this regard, various reliability assessment methods have been proposed on a variety of platforms and applications. Hence, there is a need to summarize the state-of-the-art to identify the gaps in the study of the reliability of DNNs. In this work, we conduct a Systematic Literature Review (SLR) on the reliability assessment methods of DNNs to collect relevant research works as much as possible, present a categorization of them, and address the open challenges. Through this SLR, three kinds of methods for reliability assessment of DNNs are identified, including Fault Injection (FI), Analytical, and Hybrid methods. Since the majority of works assess the DNN reliability by FI, we characterize different approaches and platforms of the FI method comprehensively. Moreover, Analytical and Hybrid methods are propounded. Thus, different reliability assessment methods for DNNs have been elaborated on their conducted DNN platforms and reliability evaluation metrics. Finally, we highlight the advantages and disadvantages of the identified methods and address the open challenges in the research area. We have concluded that Analytical and Hybrid methods are light-weight yet sufficiently accurate and have the potential to be extended in future research and to be utilized in establishing novel DNN reliability assessment frameworks.

Research on environmental reliability test and assessment of AI devices under vibration stress1

The proliferation of artificial intelligence (AI) devices has generated an increasing demand for reliability in their utilization. Nevertheless, the significant concern persists regarding the absence of suitable assessment and testing techniques to evaluate the performance of these intelligent systems in real-world conditions. In response to these issues, this paper conducts research on the reliability testing and assessment of AI visual perception systems under vibration stress. The paper introduces the working mechanism of the visual perception system and the various testing methods for AI devices. Based on this, a reliability assessment method for intelligent devices is proposed, which uses the Fréchet distance as the measurement function and environmental adaptability as the reliability metric. Additionally, a vibration test platform for the visual perception system is established, which offers a cost-effective and reliable solution to the high cost issue of field testing for AI devices. Finally, the reliability level of the visual perception system under various vibration conditions is tested through vibration testing. The research findings indicate that the reliability of AI models decreases as the degradation caused by vibration increases, following a normal distribution.

A hybrid reliability assessment method for slab track with changing structural parameters

Changes in the dynamic properties of high-speed rail (HSR) slab track structures can have a great impact on train safety and ride quality. However, the dynamic response of wheel–rail systems, which is related to operational safety, has rarely been considered in existing service reliability assessments of track structures. To solve this problem, a hybrid method was developed, with the serviceability limit state (SLS) first defined with respect to the derailment coefficient (DC) and wheel unloading rate (WUR). In calculating the reliability index, the response surface method and the first-order reliability method were used to solve the implicit expression of wheel–rail force in the SLS equation. To reduce the computation cost, a surrogate model expressing the non-linear mapping of the wheel–rail interaction is proposed. The computation efficiency and accuracy of the hybrid method were compared with Monte Carlo simulation and a back-propagation neural network (BPNN). The computation time of the hybrid method was only 1/8.4 of the BPNN method, while the accuracy of the reliability index was 98% for the DC and 97% for the WUR. The hybrid method was used to assess the reliability of a typical slab track structure under changing stiffness and damping coefficients of the fasteners, cement asphalt mortar and foundation. The stiffness and damping of the fasteners had the most impact on wheel–rail dynamics and track reliability. This research provides new insights into reliability assessments for HSR slab track with respect to train operational safety.

Innovative Method for Reliability Assessment of Power Systems: From Components Modeling to Key Indicators Evaluation

Power systems comprise different electrical, electronic, electromechanical and electrochemical components. Adequacy, security, resilience and reliability represent essential requirements for grids functioning mode. The evaluation of such aspects can constitute a delicate task in the presence of heterogeneous components. Focusing on reliability assessment, several Reliability Prediction Models are available. They are suitably applied according to the type of component under evaluation. The lack of homogeneity of these models forbids the comparison of performance and identification of unreliable systems and grid section. This paper aims to face the mentioned issue proposing a unique reliability assessment methodology able to characterize different equipment connected to radial/meshed/ring grids and subjected to different stressing and ageing factors. It is customized for electrical lines, transformers, circuit breakers, converters and renewables plants. Component and systemic key indices are calculated. Furthermore, a novel “load feeding reliability“ indicator is evaluated for providing information about the supply reliability of a specific load. This index is meaningful for the identification of unreliable grids, microgrids and systems. Such an approach can contribute to improve power systems design, planning and control. The proposed method is integrated in a software application implemented for grid reliability assessment. The obtained results are reported for an urban grid including an underground transportation area.

Reliability Assessment of Distribution Stations Considering Spare Transformer Sharing

A reliability study has been performed recently at Hydro One to evaluate the reliability of groups of distribution stations involved in a spare transformer sharing policy. The groups may include distribution utilities stations and distribution customer own stations. The study used a probabilistic method based on stationary Markov models and two performance criteria namely the group availability criterion and the total cost criterion in the evaluation. The study results demonstrate that the number of spare transformers required for the groups involved in the spare transformer sharing policy will be reduced while maintaining almost the same reliability levels of individual groups. The purpose of this paper is to describe the study, its reliability assessment method and to illustrate it using a sample system.