Metapopulation Growth Research Articles

Partitioning the Impacts of Spatial-Temporal Variation in Demography and Dispersal on Metapopulation Growth Rates

Partitioning the Impacts of Spatial-Temporal Variation in Demography and Dispersal on Metapopulation Growth Rates

Offshore oil and gas infrastructure plays a minor role in marine metapopulation dynamics

Decommissioning consequences of offshore oil and gas infrastructure removal on marine population dynamics, including connectivity, are not well understood. We modelled the connectivity and metapopulation dynamics of three fish and two benthic invertebrate species inhabiting the natural rocky reefs and offshore oil and gas infrastructure located in the Bass Strait, south-east Australia. Using a network approach, we found that platforms are not major sources, destinations, or stepping-stones for most species, yet act as modest sources for connectivity of Corynactis australis (jewel anemone). In contrast, sections of subsea pipelines appear to act as stepping-stones, source and destination habitats of varying strengths for all study species, except for Centrostephanus rodgersii (long-spined sea urchin). Natural reefs were the main stepping-stones, local source, and destination habitats for all study species. These reefs were largely responsible for the overall metapopulation growth of all study species (average of 96 % contribution across all species), with infrastructure acting as a minor contributor (<2 % average contribution). Full or partial decommissioning of platforms should have a very low or negligible impact on the overall metapopulation dynamics of the species explored, except C. australis, while full removal of pipelines could have a low impact on the metapopulation dynamics of benthic invertebrate species and a moderate impact on fish species (up to 34.1 % reduction in the metapopulation growth). We recommend that the decision to remove offshore infrastructure, either in full or in-part, be made on a platform-by-platform basis and consider contributions of pipelines to connectivity and metapopulation dynamics.

Maximizing Metapopulation Growth Rate and Biomass in Stream Networks

Maximizing Metapopulation Growth Rate and Biomass in Stream Networks

Impact of resource distributions on the competition of species in stream environment.

Our earlier work in Nguyen et al. (Maximizing metapopulation growth rate and biomass in stream networks. arXiv preprint arXiv:2306.05555 , 2023) shows that concentrating resources on the upstream end tends to maximize the total biomass in a metapopulation model for a stream species. In this paper, we continue our research direction by further considering a Lotka-Volterra competition patch model for two stream species. We show that the species whose resource allocations maximize the total biomass has the competitive advantage.

Ecological and evolutionary consequences of temporal variation in dispersal

The importance of dispersal rates and distances has long been appreciated by ecologists and evolutionary biologists. An emerging field of research is revealing how temporal variation in dispersal can substantially influence ecological and evolutionary outcomes. We review how dispersal rates can temporally vary substantially in many ecosystems, a pattern that is particularly well‐documented for aquatic organisms but is likely pervasive in terrestrial ecosystems as well. We then synthesize the effects of temporal variation in dispersal on five key ecological and evolutionary processes: 1) metapopulation dynamics, 2) local adaptation, 3) range limits and range expansions, 4) species coexistence and 5) metacommunity dynamics. Our review demonstrates that temporal variation in dispersal is more than just statistical ‘noise' but can in fact lead to different outcomes than expected were dispersal temporally constant. For example, increasing the magnitude of temporal variation in dispersal can lead to lower metapopulation growth rates, permit greater local adaptation, facilitate and accelerate range expansion, increase regional coexistence, and alter local and regional species diversity. These effects of temporal variation in dispersal can inform conservation and natural resource management decisions such as prioritization in spatial planning, management of spillover from domesticated or captive populations into native populations, and the design of effective control strategies for invasive species.

Fitness-Conditional Genes for Soil Adaptation in the Bioaugmentation Agent Pseudomonas veronii 1YdBTEX2.

Strain inoculation (bioaugmentation) is a potentially useful technology to provide microbiomes with new functionalities. However, there is limited understanding of the genetic factors contributing to successful establishment of inoculants. This work aimed to characterize the genes implicated in proliferation of the monoaromatic compound-degrading Pseudomonas veronii 1YdBTEX2 in nonsterile polluted soils. We generated two independent mutant libraries by random minitransposon-delivered marker insertion followed by deep sequencing (Tn-seq) with a total of 5.0 × 105 unique insertions. Libraries were grown in multiple successive cycles for up to 50 generations either in batch liquid medium or in two types of soil microcosms with different resident microbial content (sand or silt) in the presence of toluene. Analysis of gene insertion abundances at different time points (passed generations of metapopulation growth), in comparison to proportions at start and to in silico generated randomized insertion distributions, allowed to define ~800 essential genes common to both libraries and ~2,700 genes with conditional fitness effects in either liquid or soil (195 of which resulted in fitness gain). Conditional fitness genes largely overlapped among all growth conditions but affected approximately twice as many functions in liquid than in soil. This indicates soil to be a more promiscuous environment for mutant growth, probably because of additional nutrient availability. Commonly depleted genes covered a wide range of biological functions and metabolic pathways, such as inorganic ion transport, fatty acid metabolism, amino acid biosynthesis, or nucleotide and cofactor metabolism. Only sparse gene sets were uncovered whose insertion caused fitness decrease exclusive for soils, which were different between silt and sand. Despite detectable higher resident bacteria and potential protist predatory counts in silt, we were, therefore, unable to detect any immediately obvious candidate genes affecting P. veronii biological competitiveness. In contrast to liquid growth conditions, mutants inactivating flagella biosynthesis and motility consistently gained strong fitness advantage in soils and displayed higher growth rates than wild type. In conclusion, although many gene functions were found to be important for growth in soils, most of these are not specific as they affect growth in liquid minimal medium more in general. This indicates that P. veronii does not need major metabolic reprogramming for proliferation in soil with accessible carbon and generally favorable growth conditions. IMPORTANCE Restoring damaged microbiomes is still a formidable challenge. Classical widely adopted approaches consist of augmenting communities with pure or mixed cultures in the hope that these display their intended selected properties under in situ conditions. Ecological theory, however, dictates that introduction of a nonresident microbe is unlikely to lead to its successful proliferation in a foreign system such as a soil microbiome. In an effort to study this systematically, we used random transposon insertion scanning to identify genes and possibly, metabolic subsystems, that are crucial for growth and survival of a bacterial inoculant (Pseudomonas veronii) for targeted degradation of monoaromatic compounds in contaminated nonsterile soils. Our results indicate that although many gene functions are important for proliferation in soil, they are general factors for growth and not exclusive for soil. In other words, P. veronii is a generalist that is not a priori hindered by the soil for its proliferation and would make a good bioaugmentation candidate.

Modelling the responses of partially migratory metapopulations to changing seasonal migration rates: From theory to data.

Among‐individual and within‐individual variation in expression of seasonal migration versus residence is widespread in nature and could substantially affect the dynamics of partially migratory metapopulations inhabiting seasonally and spatially structured environments. However, such variation has rarely been explicitly incorporated into metapopulation dynamic models for partially migratory systems. We, therefore, lack general frameworks that can identify how variable seasonal movements, and associated season‐ and location‐specific vital rates, can control system persistence.We constructed a novel conceptual framework that captures full‐annual‐cycle dynamics and key dimensions of metapopulation structure for partially migratory species inhabiting seasonal environments. We conceptualize among‐individual variation in seasonal migration as two variable vital rates: seasonal movement probability and associated movement survival probability. We conceptualize three levels of within‐individual variation (i.e. plasticity), representing seasonal or annual variation in seasonal migration or lifelong fixed strategies. We formulate these concepts as a general matrix model, which is customizable for diverse life‐histories and seasonal landscapes.To illustrate how variable seasonal migration can affect metapopulation growth rate, demographic structure and vital rate elasticities, we parameterize our general models for hypothetical short‐ and longer‐lived species. Analyses illustrate that elasticities of seasonal movement probability and associated survival probability can sometimes equal or exceed those of vital rates typically understood to substantially influence metapopulation dynamics (i.e. seasonal survival probability or fecundity), that elasticities can vary non‐linearly, and that metapopulation outcomes depend on the level of within‐individual plasticity.We illustrate how our general framework can be applied to evaluate the consequences of variable and changing seasonal movement probability by parameterizing our models for a real partially migratory metapopulation of European shags Gulosus aristotelis assuming lifelong fixed strategies. Given observed conditions, metapopulation growth rate was most elastic to breeding season adult survival of the resident fraction in the dominant population. However, given doubled seasonal movement probability, variation in survival during movement would become the primary driver of metapopulation dynamics.Our general conceptual and matrix model frameworks, and illustrative analyses, thereby highlight complex ways in which structured variation in seasonal migration can influence dynamics of partially migratory metapopulations, and pave the way for diverse future theoretical and empirical advances.

Recruitment variability and sampling design interact to influence the detectability of protected area effects.

Correctly identifying the effects of a human impact on a system is a persistent challenge in ecology, driven partly by the variable nature of natural systems. This is particularly true in many marine fishery species, which frequently experience large temporal fluctuations in recruitment that produce interannual variations in populations. This variability complicates efforts to maintain stocks at management targets or detect the effects of rebuilding efforts. We address this challenge in the context of no-take marine reserves by exploring how variable larval recruitment could interact with the timing of reserve establishment and choice of sampling design to affect population dynamics and the detectability of reserve effects. To predict population changes in the years following a no-take reserve implementation, we first tested for periodicity in larval recruitment in an important U.S. Pacific coast recreational fishery species (kelp bass, Paralabrax clathratus) and then included that pattern in a population model. We also used this model to determine the detectability of population increases under alternative sampling approaches and minimum age sampled. Kelp bass larval recruitment in the Channel Islands, California, peaked every about six (major) and about two (minor) years. Our model showed that establishing a reserve during a peak or trough enhanced or delayed, respectively, the post-reserve population increases. However, establishing a reserve during a recruitment peak could obscure a failing reserve, that is, a reserve that is unable to secure longer-term metapopulation persistence. Recruitment peaks and troughs also interacted with sampling design to affect the detectability of reserve effects. Designs that compared inside-outside were the most robust to variable recruitment, but failed to capture whether the reserve has improved metapopulation growth. Designs that included a time element (e.g., before-after) are more suited to assessing reserve effectiveness, but were sensitive to recruitment variation and detectability can change year-to-year. Notably, detectability did not always increase monotonically with reserve age; the optimal time for detectability depended on the minimum age of organisms sampled and was greatest when the cohort of a major recruitment peak first appeared in the sampling. We encourage managers to account for variable recruitment when planning monitoring and assessment programs.

Forest management affects seasonal source-sink dynamics in a territorial, group-living bird

The persistence of wildlife populations is under threat as a consequence of human activities, which are degrading natural ecosystems. Commercial forestry is the greatest threat to biodiversity in boreal forests. Forestry practices have degraded most available habitat, threatening the persistence of natural populations. Understanding population responses is, therefore, critical for their conservation. Population viability analyses are effective tools to predict population persistence under forestry management. However, quantifying the mechanisms driving population responses is complex as population dynamics vary temporally and spatially. Metapopulation dynamics are governed by local dynamics and spatial factors, potentially mediating the impacts of forestry e.g., through dispersal. Here, we performed a seasonal, spatially explicit population viability analysis, using long-term data from a group-living territorial bird (Siberian jay, Perisoreus infaustus). We quantified the effects of forest management on metapopulation dynamics, via forest type-specific demography and spatially explicit dispersal, and how forestry impacted the stability of metapopulation dynamics. Forestry reduced metapopulation growth and stability, through negative effects on reproduction and survival. Territories in higher quality natural forest contributed more to metapopulation dynamics than managed forests, largely through demographic processes rather than dispersal. Metapopulation dynamics in managed forest were also less resilient to disturbances and consequently, may be more vulnerable to environmental change. Seasonal differences in source-sink dynamics observed in managed forest, but not natural forests, were caused by associated seasonal differences in dispersal. As shown here, capturing seasonal source-sink dynamics allows us to predict population persistence under human disturbance and to provide targeted conservation recommendations.

Quantifying dispersal variability among nearshore marine populations.

Dispersal drives diverse processes from population persistence to community dynamics. However, the amount of temporal variation in dispersal and its consequences for metapopulation dynamics is largely unknown for organisms with environmentally driven dispersal (e.g., many marine larvae, arthropods and plant seeds). Here, we used genetic parentage analysis to detect larval dispersal events in a common coral reef fish, Amphiprion clarkii, along 30km of coastline consisting of 19 reef patches in Ormoc Bay, Leyte, Philippines. We quantified variation in the dispersal kernel across seven years (2012-2018) and monsoon seasons with 71 parentage assignments from 791 recruits and 1,729 adults. Connectivity patterns differed significantly among years and seasons in the scale and shape but not in the direction of dispersal. This interannual variation in dispersal kernels introduced positive temporal covariance among dispersal routes that theory predicts is likely to reduce stochastic metapopulation growth rates below the growth rates expected from only a single or a time-averaged connectivity estimate. The extent of variation in mean dispersal distance observed here among years is comparable in magnitude to the differences across reef fish species. Considering dispersal variation will be an important avenue for further metapopulation and metacommunity research across diverse taxa.

Human-mediated dispersal and disturbance shape the metapopulation dynamics of a long-lived herb.

As anthropogenic impacts on the natural world escalate, there is increasing interest in the role of humans in dispersing seeds. But the consequences of this Human-Mediated Dispersal (HMD) on plant spatial dynamics are little studied. In this paper, we ask how secondary dispersal by HMD affects the dynamics of a natural plant metapopulation. In addition to dispersal between patches, we suggest within-patch processes can be critical. To address this, we assess how variation in local population dynamics, caused by small-scale disturbances, affects metapopulation size. We created an empirically based model with stochastic population dynamics and dispersal among patches, which represented a real-world, cliff-top metapopulation of wild cabbage Brassica oleracea. We collected demographic data from multiple populations by tagging plants over eight years. We assessed seed survival, and establishment and survival of seedlings in intact vegetation vs. small disturbances. We modeled primary dispersal by wind using field data and used experimental data on secondary HMD by hikers. We monitored occupancy patterns over a 14-yr period in the real metapopulation. Disturbance had large effects on local population growth rates, by increasing seedling establishment and survival. This meant that the modeled metapopulation grew in size only when the area disturbed in each patch was above 35%. In these growing metapopulations, although only 0.2% of seeds underwent HMD, this greatly enhanced metapopulation growth rates. Similarly, HMD allowed more colonizations in declining metapopulations under low disturbance, and this slowed the rate of decline. The real metapopulation showed patterns of varying patch occupancy over the survey years, which were related to habitat quality, but also positively to human activity along the cliffs, hinting at beneficial effects of humans. These findings illustrate that realistic changes to dispersal or demography, specifically by humans, can have fundamental effects on the viability of a species at the landscape scale.

Habitat network topology influences the importance of ecological traps in metapopulations

AbstractThe majority of species exist in metapopulations, where populations are linked to one another through dispersal. Disturbances (natural or anthropogenic) are known to affect population vital rates which can reverberate to the metapopulations through dispersal, which is determined by the topology of the habitat network (i.e., the number of patches and their spatial layout). Within a habitat network, disturbed patches become sinks or ecological traps depending on whether individuals avoid or are attracted to the disturbed patch. Ecological traps occur when individuals preferentially disperse to patches that result in low fitness which can have severe consequences for metapopulations. However, the effects of ecological traps should be considered relative to a number of factors, such as the number of disturbed patches, the fitness cost of the disturbance, and dispersal. Further, the relative importance of each factor can vary among different habitat network topologies according to the position and role of the disturbed patches for maintaining the functional connectivity of the entire metapopulation. Using a spatially explicit stochastic stage‐based metapopulation model based on amphibian life history, we investigate how the number of disturbed patches, fitness cost of the disturbance, dispersal rate, and attractiveness of disturbed habitat patches affect the persistence of metapopulations in different habitat network topologies (random, tree, and full). Overall, dispersal, the number of disturbed patches, and the fitness penalty of the disturbance were the most important factors affecting mean metapopulation growth rate, the probability of extinction, and time to extinction. Ecological traps had the largest effect in the tree network topology where the number of links between patches was limited. For all network topologies studied, larger negative effects were observed when disturbed patches were centrally located in the network. Reducing the number and spatial correlation of disturbances is known to be a reliable conservation strategy, we add the importance of considering the location of disturbances within habitat networks and network topology.

Dispersal traits interact with dynamic connectivity to affect metapopulation growth and stability

Many marine benthic species undergo a pelagic larval stage during which larvae are transported by ocean currents over a broad range of spatial and temporal scales. Although metapopulation theory predicts how stochastic dispersal can alter the stability of metapopulations, little is known about how dispersal-related traits such as spawning time and larval duration interact with spatiotemporal connectivity to affect metapopulation growth and stability. We used stochastic models and stage-structured metapopulation dynamics to study the interacting effects of ocean currents and dispersal traits on regional growth and stability. We derived stochastic metapopulation growth and stability, which predict the strong impact of local density regulation on the response of metapopulation to dynamic connectivity: temporal variance, positive (negative) covariance, and negative (positive) autocorrelation in connectivity deflate (inflate) density-independent growth. Yet, stability decreases (increases) with temporal variance and positive (negative) covariance of connectivity. We applied our derived metrics to simulated connectivity along the coast of British Colombia (Canada) over a range of spawning time (ST) and pelagic larval duration (PLD). Our analysis shows strong interactions between statistical components of connectivity, dispersal-related traits, and metapopulation growth and stability. The non-monotonic response of metapopulation stability to PLD was driven by mean of connectivity over short PLDs ( 36 days. We therefore use a trait-based framework and partitioning the relative importance of spatial and temporal components of stochastic marine dispersal, to inform species response through climate-induced changes in larval transport and in dispersal-related traits.

Integrating larval connectivity with local demography reveals regional dynamics of a marine metapopulation.

Many ocean species exist within what are called marine metapopulations: networks of otherwise isolated local populations connected by the exchange of larval offspring. In order to manage these species as effectively as possible (e.g., by designing and implementing effective networks of marine protected areas), we must know how many offspring are produced within each local population (i.e., local demography), and where those offspring disperse (i.e., larval connectivity). Although there is much interest in estimating connectivity in the relatively simple sense of identifying the locations of spawning parents and their settling offspring, true measures of demographic connectivity that account for among-site variation in offspring production have been lacking. We combined detailed studies of local reproductive output and larval dispersal of a coral reef fish to quantify demographic connectivity within a regional metapopulation that included four widely spaced islands in the Bahamas. We present a new method for estimating demographic connectivity when the levels of dispersal among populations are inferred by the collection of genetically "tagged" offspring. We estimated that 13.3% of recruits returned to natal islands, on average (95% CI = 1.1-50.3%), that local retention was high on one of the islands (41%, 95% CI = 6.0-97.0%), and that larval connectivity was appreciable, even between islands 129km apart (mean = 1.6%, 95% CI = 0.20-8.8%). Our results emphasize the importance of properly integrating measurements of production with measurements of connectivity. Had we not accounted for among-site variation in offspring production, our estimates of connectivity would have been inaccurate by a factor as much as 6.5. At a generational timescale, lifetime offspring production varied substantially (a fivefold difference among islands) and the importance of each island to long-term metapopulation growth was dictated by both larval production and connectivity. At the scale of our study (local populations inhabiting 5-ha reefs), the regional metapopulation could not grow without external input. However, an exploratory analysis simulating a network of four marine protected areas suggested that reserves of >65ha each would ensure persistence of this network. Thus, integrating studies of larval connectivity and local demography hold promise for both managing and conserving marine metapopulations effectively.

Managed movement increases metapopulation viability of the endangered red wolf

ABSTRACTMovement connects otherwise isolated populations, influencing demographic persistence and promoting gene flow. We evaluated the effect of movement on the genetic and demographic viability of the red wolf (Canis rufus) and tested the application of metapopulation theory to management of this endangered predator. The establishment of a captive subpopulation in the 1970s allowed persistence of the species and facilitated a reintroduction program that supported 2 wild subpopulations, one of which persists today. We assessed the effect of historical and potential future movement between the wild and captive subpopulations on the genetic and demographic viability of the metapopulation. We analyzed approximately 30 years of individual‐level data to quantify the effects of historical movement among subpopulations and constructed an individual‐based metapopulation model to predict the effects of future potential movement (i.e., releases of captive wolves) on the species’ persistence and genetic diversity. Counter to theory, increased movement has had positive demographic effects, with higher per capita movement rates leading to increased metapopulation growth and decreased subpopulation synchrony. These counter‐theoretical results are likely due to differences in reproduction and survival rates among subpopulations and the small size of the metapopulation. Furthermore, higher rates of movement did not increase retention of genetic diversity, likely because of the active pedigree‐based breeding management of the species already maximizing gene retention. Our model indicates that future releases of captive wolves are necessary, but not sufficient, for the survival of the species, and must be combined with changes to demographic rates in both the captive and northeastern North Carolina subpopulations. Our results highlight the need for models and field data that more adequately describe the viability of small metapopulations. © 2017 The Wildlife Society.

Movements and source–sink dynamics of a Masai giraffe metapopulation

AbstractSpatial variation in habitat quality and anthropogenic factors, as well as social structure, can lead to spatially structured populations of animals. Demographic approaches can be used to improve our understanding of the dynamics of spatially structured populations and help identify subpopulations critical for the long‐term persistence of regional metapopulations. We provide a regional metapopulation analysis to inform conservation management for Masai giraffes (Giraffa camelopardalis tippelskirchi) in five subpopulations defined by land management designations. We used data from an individual‐based mark–recapture study to estimate subpopulation sizes, subpopulation growth rates, and movement probabilities among subpopulations. We assessed the source–sink structure of the study population by calculating source–sink statistics, and we created a female‐based matrix metapopulation model composed of all subpopulations to examine how variation in demographic components of survival, reproduction, and movement affected metapopulation growth rate. Movement data indicated no subpopulation was completely isolated, but movement probabilities varied among subpopulations. Source–sink statistics and net flow of individuals indicated three subpopulations were sources, while two subpopulations were sinks. We found areas with higher wildlife protection efforts and fewer anthropogenic impacts were sources, and less‐protected areas were identified as sinks. Our results highlight the importance of identifying source–sink dynamics among subpopulations for effective conservation planning and emphasize how protected areas can play an important role in sustaining metapopulations.

Population‐specific life histories contribute to metapopulation viability

AbstractRestoration efforts can be improved by understanding how variations in life‐history traits occur within populations of the same species living in different environments. This can be done by first understanding the demographic responses of natural occurring populations. Population viability analysis continues to be useful to species management and conservation with sensitivity analysis aiding in the understanding of population dynamics. In this study, using life‐table response experiments and elasticity analyses, we investigated how population‐specific life‐history demographic responses contributed to the metapopulation viability of the Federally threatened Pitcher's thistle (Cirsium pitcheri). Specifically, we tested the following hypotheses: (1) Subpopulations occupying different environments within a metapopulation have independent demographic responses and (2) advancing succession results in a shift from a demographic response focused on growth and fecundity to one dominated by stasis. Our results showed that reintroductions had a positive contribution to the metapopulation growth rate as compared to native populations which had a negative contribution. We found no difference in succession on the contribution to metapopulation viability. In addition, we identified distinct population‐specific contributions to metapopulation viability and were able to associate specific life‐history demographic responses. For example, the positive impact of Miller High Dunes population on the metapopulation growth rate resulted from high growth contributions, whereas increased time of plant in stasis for the State Park Big Blowout population resulted in negative contributions. A greater understanding of how separate populations respond in their corresponding environment may ultimately lead to more effective management strategies aimed at reducing extinction risk. We propose the continued use of sensitivity analyses to evaluate population‐specific demographic influences on metapopulation viability. In understanding the underlying causes of the projected extinction probabilities of each population and identifying broad‐scale contributions of different populations to the metapopulation, the process of pinpointing target populations is simplified. More detailed analyses can then be applied to the target populations to increase population viability and consequently metapopulation viability. Based on our research, we suggest that the best approach to improve the overall metapopulation viability is to manage the contributions to population growth for each population separately.

An Ecological Model for Quantitative Risk Assessment for Schistosomiasis: The Case of a Patchy Environment in the Coastal Tropical Area of Northeastern Brazil

We developed a stochastic model for quantitative risk assessment for the Schistosoma mansoni (SM) parasite, which causes an endemic disease of public concern. The model provides answers in a useful format for public health decisions, uses data and expert opinion, and can be applied to any landscape where the snail Biomphalaria glabrata is the main intermediate host (South and Central America, the Caribbean, and Africa). It incorporates several realistic and case-specific features: stage-structured parasite populations, periodic praziquantel (PZQ) drug treatment for humans, density dependence, extreme events (prolonged rainfall), site-specific sanitation quality, environmental stochasticity, monthly rainfall variation, uncertainty in parameters, and spatial dynamics. We parameterize the model through a real-world application in the district of Porto de Galinhas (PG), one of the main touristic destinations in Brazil, where previous studies identified four parasite populations within the metapopulation. The results provide a good approximation of the dynamics of the system and are in agreement with our field observations, i.e., the lack of basic infrastructure (sanitation level and health programs) makes PG a suitable habitat for the persistence and growth of a parasite metapopulation. We quantify the risk of SM metapopulation explosion and quasi-extinction and the time to metapopulation explosion and quasi-extinction. We evaluate the sensitivity of the results under varying scenarios of future periodic PZQ treatment (based on the Brazilian Ministry of Health's plan) and sanitation quality. We conclude that the plan might be useful to slow SM metapopulation growth but not to control it. Additional investments in better sanitation are necessary.

Changing Seascapes, Stochastic Connectivity, and Marine Metapopulation Dynamics

The probability of dispersal from one habitat patch to another is a key quantity in our efforts to understand and predict the dynamics of natural populations. Unfortunately, an often overlooked property of this potential connectivity is that it may change with time. In the marine realm, transient landscape features, such as mesoscale eddies and alongshore jets, produce potential connectivity that is highly variable in time. We assess the impact of this temporal variability by comparing simulations of nearshore metapopulation dynamics when potential connectivity is constant through time (i.e., when it is deterministic) and when it varies in time (i.e., when it is stochastic). We use mathematical analysis to reach general conclusions and realistic biophysical modeling to determine the actual magnitude of these changes for a specific system: nearshore marine species in the Southern California Bight. We find that in general the temporal variability of potential connectivity affects two important quantities: metapopulation growth rates when the species is rare and equilibrium abundances. Our biophysical models reveal that stochastic outcomes are almost always lower than their deterministic counterparts, sometimes by up to 40%. This has implications for how we use spatial information, such as connectivity, to manage nearshore (and other) systems.

Risk spreading, connectivity, and optimal reserve spacing

Two important processes determining the dynamics of spatially structured populations are dispersal and the spatial covariance of demographic fluctuations. Spatially explicit approaches to conservation, such as reserve networks, must consider the tension between these two processes and reach a balance between distances near enough to maintain connectivity, but far enough to benefit from risk spreading. Here, we model this trade-off. We show how two measures of metapopulation persistence depend on the shape of the dispersal kernel and the shape of the distance decay in demographic covariance, and we consider the implications of this trade-off for reserve spacing. The relative rates of distance decay in dispersal and demographic covariance determine whether the long-run metapopulation growth rate, and quasi-extinction risk, peak for adjacent patches or intermediately spaced patches; two local maxima in metapopulation persistence are also possible. When dispersal itself fluctuates over time, the trade-off changes. Temporal variation in mean distance that propagules are dispersed (i.e., propagule advection) decreases metapopulation persistence and decreases the likelihood that persistence will peak for adjacent patches. Conversely, variation in diffusion (the extent of random spread around mean dispersal) increases metapopulation persistence overall and causes it to peak at shorter inter-patch distances. Thus, failure to consider temporal variation in dispersal processes increases the risk that reserve spacings will fail to meet the objective of ensuring metapopulation persistence. This study identifies two phenomena that receive relatively little attention in empirical work on reserve spacing, but that can qualitatively change the effectiveness of reserve spacing strategies: (1) the functional form of the distance decay in covariance among patch-specific demographic rates and (2) temporal variation in the shape of the dispersal kernel. The sensitivity of metapopulation recovery and persistence to how covariance of vital rates decreases with distance suggests that estimating the shape of this function is likely to be as important for effective reserve design as estimating connectivity. Similarly, because temporal variation in dispersal dynamics influences the effect of reserve spacing, approaches to reserve design that ignore such variation, and rely instead on long-term average dispersal patterns, are likely to lead to lower metapopulation viability than is actually achievable.