We studied whether increased urinary transferrin excretion rates (TERs) (urinary transferrin-to-urinary creatinine ratio > or = 107 micrograms/mmol, which is the sum of an average and 2 SDs in 431 healthy nondiabetic individuals) would predict the development of microalbuminuria (urinary albumin-to-urinary creatinine ratio > or = 2.8 mg/mmol) in patients with type 2 diabetes and normal urinary albumin excretion rates (AERs) (albumin-to-creatinine ratio < 2.8 mg/mmol). We also studied the influence of blood pressure, glycemic control, and serum levels of lipids and apolipoproteins on the later development of microalbuminuria. In 77 diabetic patients with normal AER, AER and TER were measured at baseline and after 24 months of follow-up. Blood pressure, glycemic control, and serum levels of lipids and apolipoproteins were measured at 1- to 2-month intervals during the follow-up period. Of the 16 patients who initially had increased TER, 5 (31%) developed microalbuminuria. In contrast, of the 61 who initially had normal TER, 4 (7%) developed microalbuminuria (P = 0.016). At baseline, no difference was found in age, sex, diabetes duration, diabetic medications, prevalence of hypertension, blood pressure, HbA1c levels, or serum lipid and apolipoprotein concentrations between the two group of patients with normal and increased TER. There was also no difference in duration of hypertension and prevalence of users of ACE inhibitors between two subgroups of hypertensive patients with normal and increased TER. During the 24 month follow-up period, those whose condition progressed to microalbuminuria had increased serum levels of triglycerides (1.87 +/- 0.49 vs. 1.29 +/- 0.64 mmol/l, P = 0.003) and apolipoprotein B (114 +/- 20 vs. 102 +/- 24 mg/dl, P = 0.05) and tended to have increased HbA1c levels (7.7 +/- 1.0 vs. 7.1 +/- 1.1%, P = 0.10) compared with those in whom microalbuminuria did not develop. Blood pressure, however, did not differ. In multivariate stepwise logistic regression analysis, the association between increased TER at baseline and subsequent development of microalbuminuria was significant (odds ratio 7.04 [95% CI 1.02-48.5], P = 0.04). In patients with type 2 diabetes and normal AER, increased TER may predict the development of microalbuminuria and abnormalities in triglyceride-rich lipoprotein metabolism, and poor glycemic control may be associated with this progression.
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