Meridional Wind Field Research Articles

Examining the dynamics of a Borneo vortex using a balance approximation tool

Abstract. Cyclonic vortices that are weaker than tropical storm category can bring heavy precipitation as they propagate across the South China Sea and surrounding countries. Here we investigate the structure and dynamics responsible for the intensification of a Borneo vortex that moved from the north of Borneo across the South China Sea and impacted Vietnam and Thailand in late October 2018. This case study is examined using Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) simulations and a semi-geotriptic (SGT) balance approximation tool. Satellite observations and a MetUM simulation with 4.4 km grid initialised at 12:00 UTC on 21 October 2018 show that the westward-moving vortex is characterised by a coherent maximum in total column water and by a comma-shaped precipitation structure with the heaviest rainfall to the northwest of the circulation centre. The Borneo vortex comprises a low-level cyclonic circulation and a mid-level wave embedded in the background easterly shear flow, which strengthens with height up to around 7 km. Despite being in the tropics at 6∘ N, the low-level vortex and mid-level wave are well represented by SGT balance dynamics. The mid-level wave propagates along a vertical gradient in moist stability, i.e. the product between the specific humidity and the static stability, at 4.5 to 5 km and is characterised by a coherent signature in the potential vorticity, meridional wind, and balanced vertical velocity fields. The vertical motion is dominated by coupling with diabatic heating and is shifted relative to the potential vorticity so that the diabatic wave propagates westwards, relative to the flow, at a rate consistent with prediction from moist semi-geostrophic theory. Initial vortex development at low levels is consistent with baroclinic growth initiated by the mid-level diabatic Rossby wave, which propagates on baroclinic shear flow on the southern flank of a large-scale cold surge.

Impact of the Eurasian Wave Train on the Interannual Variability of Autumn Precipitation in the Central Region of China

AbstractAutumn precipitation in the central region of China (APCC) can considerably influence on agricultural production and human livelihood. With reanalysis data from 1979 to 2020, it revealed that APCC is significantly affected by the second mode of the meridional wind field at 200 hPa over the Eurasian continent on the interannual scale, which featured a quasi‐barotropic “+‐+” wave‐like pattern from Europe to China (EC pattern) in extratropical zone. When the EC pattern is in a positive phase, central China lags behind the downstream positive geopotential height (anticyclone) anomaly. In this context, the transport of moisture from the south and east is enhanced and the advancement of the southerly monsoon is blocked, providing sufficient water vapor to support the occurrence of APCC. Further diagnosis revealed that local ascending motion is strengthened owing to the warm advection induced by anomalous southerly and positive vorticity advection associated with the anomalous anticyclone over East Asia. Additionally, wave flux analysis and model simulation suggest that the EC pattern results from the propagation of stationary Rossby wave, which could be excited by dipole sea surface temperature anomalies in the North Atlantic. These discoveries will contribute to improving the predictability of APCC.

Hybrid ensemble-variational data assimilation in ABC-DA within a tropical framework

Abstract. Hybrid ensemble-variational data assimilation (DA) methods have gained significant traction in recent years. These methods aim to alleviate the limitations and maximise the advantages offered by ensemble or variational methods. Most existing hybrid applications focus on the mid-latitudinal context; almost none have explored its benefits in the tropical context. In this article, hybrid ensemble-variational DA is introduced to a tropical configuration of a simplified non-hydrostatic convective-scale fluid dynamics model (the ABC model, named after its three key parameters: the pure gravity wave frequency A, the controller of the acoustic wave speed B, and the constant of proportionality between pressure and density perturbations C), and its existing variational framework, the ABC-DA system. The hybrid ensemble-variational DA algorithm is developed based on the alpha control variable approach, often used in numerical weather prediction. Aspects of the algorithm such as localisation (used to mitigate sampling error caused by finite ensemble sizes) and weighting parameters (used to weight the ensemble and climatological contributions to the background error covariance matrix) are implemented. To produce the flow-dependent error modes (ensemble perturbations) for the ensemble-variational DA algorithm, an ensemble system is also designed for the ABC model which is run alongside the hybrid DA system. A random field perturbations method is used to generate an initial ensemble which is then propagated using the ensemble bred vectors method. This setup allows the ensemble to be centred on the hybrid control analysis. Visualisation software has been developed to focus on the diagnosis of the ensemble system. To demonstrate the hybrid ensemble-variational DA in the ABC-DA system, sensitivity tests using observing system simulation experiments are conducted within a tropical framework. A 30-member ensemble was used to generate the error modes for the experiments. In general, the best performing configuration (with respect to the “truth”) for the hybrid ensemble-variational DA system used an 80%/20% weighting on the ensemble-derived/climatological background error covariance matrix contributions. For the horizontal wind variables though, full weight on the ensemble-derived background error covariance matrix (100%/0%) resulted in the smallest cycle-averaged analysis root mean square errors, mainly due to large errors in the meridional wind field when contributions from the climatological background error covariance matrix were involved, possibly related to a sub-optimal background error covariance model. The ensemble bred vectors method propagated a healthy-looking DA-centred ensemble without bimodalities or evidence of filter collapse. The ensemble was under-dispersive for some variables but for others, the ensemble spread approximately matched the corresponding root mean square errors. Reducing the number of ensemble members led to slightly larger errors across all variables due to the introduction of larger sampling errors into the system.

Leading modes of wind field variability over the western Tibet Plateau

Atmospheric circulations bring moisture from above the ocean to the high mountains of the western Tibet Plateau (TP), thus wind variability is of great importance to the water cycle centered on the western TP. This study therefore examines the leading modes of the wind fields over the western TP. We use the multivariate empirical orthogonal function (MV-EOF) analysis method to detect the dominant wind patterns above the western TP. This method extracts the leading modes of combined meridional and zonal wind variability at 200-hPa in the region of 22° N–50° N, 50° E–92° E. We find the first leading mode of the combined zonal and meridional wind field in the annual mean and in most seasons (spring, summer and autumn) over the western TP shows high similarity to the Western Tibetan Vortex (WTV), a large-scale atmospheric vortex-like pattern recently recognized over the western TP. In winter, the WTV, however, is closer to the second leading mode. We estimate the sensitivity of our results by changing the domain of the MV-EOF analysis region surrounding the western. We find the influence of the WTV is less sensitive to analysis location around the western TP. In short, the WTV generally represents the first leading mode of the wind field in most seasons over the western TP. This study augments our knowledge on wind variability over the western TP.

The investigation on daytime conjugate hemispheric asymmetry along 100°E longitude using observations and model simulations: New insights

The hemispherical asymmetry of the low latitude region along 100°E ± 5°E is scrutinized for the year 2015 at magnetically conjugate points on seasonal and intra-seasonal time scales. Two conjugate Ionosonde station pairs are selected- one pair in the inner valley (from SEALION) and the other in the outer edges of the EIA region. The anomaly in the stations is estimated using the difference of low latitude NmF2 from the dip equatorial NmF2 in the same meridian. A monthly average scheme is used instead of a seasonal mean, as the month-to-month variations are found to provide intricate details. The anomaly at the conjugate stations is highly asymmetric even during the equinoctial months of March and October, whereas it is nearly symmetric during April. During June/July, the morning time hemispheric asymmetry (larger on the winter side) temporarily reduces in the midday period and then reverses sign (larger in summer) in the afternoon. The NmF2 observations suggest a close relation of hemispheric symmetry to the position of the subsolar point with respect to the dip equator and a shift/expansion of the trough region of the EIA towards the summer hemisphere. The inter-hemispheric comparison of the hmF2 suggests a strong modulating influence of meridional winds at both the inner and outer stations which depend strongly on the relative position of the subsolar point with respect to the field line geometry. Theoretical (SAMI3/SAMI2) and empirical model (IRI) simulations show a meridional movement of the EIA region with the subsolar point. The winter to summer hemisphere movement of the EIA trough and crest region is also reproduced in the GIM-TEC along 100°E for 2015. This shifting or tailoring of the trough and the crest region is attributed primarily to the meridional wind field, which varies with the shifting position of subsolar point relative to the field line geometry. The seasonal and intra-seasonal difference in the NmF2 hemispheric asymmetry is attributed to the misalignment of the two centers of power viz., the thermospheric/neutral processes and the electromagnetic forces, due to the geographic-geomagnetic offset in this longitude.

The time delay between the equatorial ionization anomaly and the equatorial electrojet in the eastern Asian and American sectors

The daily evolution of the Equatorial Ionization Anomaly (EIA) and the Equatorial Electrojet (EEJ) exhibits phase difference, which reflects the response time of the F-region equatorial plasma fountain to the E-region electric field variation. Studies on this response time contribute to clarifying the relative importance of different influence factors on the low-latitude E- and F-region coupling process. However, the solar-cycle, seasonal and longitudinal dependence of this response time has not yet been comprehensively revealed. In this paper, the occurrence time of the daytime most developed northern EIA crest (TEIA), the occurrence time of the daytime strongest EEJ (TEEJ), and their time delay (δT = TEIA-TEEJ) during 2008 to 2018 are derived from total electron content and magnetometer data, and the seasonal and solar-cycle variations of these parameters are analyzed and compared between the eastern Asian and American sectors. Main results are as follows. (1) TEIA and δT share similar seasonal and solar-cycle variation patterns, which are different from TEEJ. (2) The prevailing seasonal variation pattern of TEIA is generally consistent in the two sectors, which is earlier (later) in the boreal winter (summer). This feature is not determined by the variations of TEEJ or EEJ strength. (3) The solar-cycle variation pattern of TEIA is different between the eastern Asian and American sectors, but the 11-yr averaged TEIA is nearly the same in the two sectors. The solar-cycle and longitudinal dependencies are probably due to the combined effect of electric field, meridional wind, and local geomagnetic field configuration.

Assessing the Impact of ICON/MIGHTI Zonal and Meridional Winds on Upper Atmosphere Weather Specification in a Whole Atmosphere Data Assimilation System: An Observing System Simulation Experiment

AbstractThermospheric data assimilation is limited due to the lack of continuous observation of the neutral state. Recently, the thermospheric wind data from the Michelson Interferometer for Global High‐resolution Thermospheric Imaging (MIGHTI) on NASA's Ionospheric CONnection Explorer (ICON) became available. ICON/MIGHTI provides near‐continuous observations of the mid‐ and low‐latitude thermospheric meridional and zonal winds ICON/MIGHTI observes the thermosphere zonal and meridional winds at low‐middle latitudes between 90 and 300 km during the daytime, and 90–105 and above 210 km during the nighttime. This study assesses the impact of assimilating ICON/MIGHTI winds in the National Center for Atmospheric Research Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with thermosphere‐ionosphere eXtension (WACCM‐X) + Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) on the specification and short‐term forecasting of the thermosphere. Observing system simulation experiments of WACCM‐X + DART with and without assimilating synthetic ICON/MIGHTI meridional and zonal wind profiles are performed. The result shows that this new data set can correct the wind specification throughout the mid‐ and low‐latitude thermosphere, especially around the 90–160 km altitude region. A notable impact is also shown in the region above 300 km altitude, which is above the altitude of ICON/MIGHTI wind observations. The impact of ICON/MIGHTI data on the zonal wind field is larger than on the meridional wind field. The errors of the ensemble mean from the truth of meridional and zonal wind fields in the mid‐and low‐latitude region are reduced by 6% and 12%, respectively, with the help of ICON/MIGHTI wind data.

Interdecadal Change in the Relationship between Northern and Southern Hemisphere Meridional Circulation over the Western Pacific Ocean

The western North Pacific monsoon in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and the local Hadley circulation in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) are important components of the vertical meridional circulation over the western Pacific Ocean. Here, we define the SH meridional circulation (SHMC) and NH meridional circulation (NHMC) and investigate their relationship over the western Pacific Ocean. Although they are consistent integrally in the climatological circulation, the NHMC and SHMC do not have a positive change relationship but a significantly negative relationship. In addition, this negative correlation experiences an interdecadal change, with one closely related period during 1989–2003 (Period 2, P2) and two weakened related periods during 1979–1988 (Period 1, P1) and 2004–2017 (Period 3, P3). Through the analysis of the meridional wind field at lower and upper levels, we found that the SHMC moves northward during P2, which can result in a close relationship with the NHMC. The possible mechanism is as follows: The Walker circulation strengthened in P2, which strengthened the ascending motion over the western Pacific Ocean, thus inducing the SHMC to strengthen and move northward, resulting in a significantly stronger relationship with the NHMC.

An Integrated Geometric and Topological Approach for the Identification and Visual Analysis of Rossby Wave Packets

AbstractA new method for identifying Rossby wave packets (RWPs) using 6-hourly data from the ERA-Interim is presented. The method operates entirely in the spatial domain and relies on the geometric and topological properties of the meridional wind field to identify RWPs. The method represents RWPs as nodes and edges of a dual graph instead of the more common envelope representation. This novel representation allows access to both RWP phase and amplitude information. Local maxima and minima of the meridional wind field are collected into groups. Each group, called a υ-max cluster or υ-min cluster of the meridional wind field, represents a potential wave component. Nodes of the dual graph represent a υ-max cluster or υ-min cluster. Alternating υ-max clusters and υ-min clusters are linked by edges of the dual graph, called the RWP association graph. Amplitude and discrete gradient-based filtering applied on the association graph helps identify RWPs of interest. The method is inherently robust against noise and does not require smoothing of the input data. The main parameters that control the performance of the method and their impact on the identified RWPs are discussed. All filtering and RWP identification operations are performed on the association graph as opposed to directly on the wind field, leading to computational efficiency. Advantages and limitations of the method are discussed and are compared against (transform-based) envelope methods in a series of experiments.

Dynamics and Electrodynamics of an Ultra‐Fast Kelvin Wave (UFKW) Packet in the Ionosphere‐Thermosphere (IT)

AbstractNumerical experiments are performed using a suite of general circulation models that enable the interaction between a Kelvin wave packet and the ionosphere‐thermosphere (IT) to be elucidated. Focus is on an eastward‐propagating ultra‐fast Kelvin wave (UFKW) packet with periods between 2 and 4 days and zonal wavenumber s=−1 during day of year (DOY) 266–281, 2009. Dissipative processes modify the classic UFKW dynamics (equatorially trapped, small meridional wind component) in three ways: (1) molecular diffusion acts to spread the UFKW zonal (u) and meridional (v) wind fields meridionally, pole to pole, as u and v, respectively, decay and grow with increasing height; (2) due to molecular diffusion, the UFKW spectrum at longer periods and with shorter vertical wavelengths preferentially dissipates with height; and (3) interaction with the diurnally varying IT introduces a westward‐propagating s=+2 component to the wind field that significantly modifies its longitude‐UT structure to include a diurnal modulation. The F‐region ionosphere also responds with s=+2, which originates from the influence of diurnally varying E‐region conductivity on E×B drifts. Additional spectral peaks in v and ionospheric parameters arise due to longitude variations in the magnetic field. Maximum excursions in NmF2 (as compared with those from a simulation without UFKW forcing) achieve values as large as ±50% but more commonly occur in the range of ±20–30%. The combination of positive and negative responses, and their relative magnitudes, depends on the phasing of the UFKW as it moves zonally relative to the Sun‐synchronous diurnal variation of the ionosphere, in addition to its changing amplitude between DOY 266 and 282. Modifications of order 10 ms−1 and −7% to zonal‐mean zonal winds and NmF2, respectively, also result from dissipation of the UFKW packet.

Deep Learning Prediction of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons in the High Arctic.

Given the lack of understanding of the complex physiochemical and environmental processes of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the Arctic and around the globe, atmospheric models often yield large errors in the predicted atmospheric concentrations of POPs. Here, we developed a recurrent neural network (RNN) method based on nonparametric deep learning algorithms. The RNN model was implemented to predict monthly air concentrations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) at the high Arctic monitoring station Alert. To train the RNN system, we used MODIS satellite remotely sensed forest fire data, air emissions, meteorological data, sea ice cover area, and sampled PAH concentration data from 1996 to 2012. The system was applied to forecast monthly PAH concentrations from 2012 to 2014 at the Alert station. The results were compared with monitored PAHs and an atmospheric transport model (CanMETOP) for POPs. We show that the RNN significantly improved PHE and BaP predictions from 2012 to 2014 by 62.5 and 91.1%, respectively, compared to CanMETOP predictions. The sensitivity analysis using the Shapley value reveals that air emissions determined the magnitude of PAH levels in the high Arctic, whereas forest fires played a significant role in the changes in PAH concentrations in the high Arctic, followed by air temperature and meridional wind fields.

The Annual Cycle of Northern Hemisphere Storm Tracks. Part II: Regional Detail

AbstractIn Part I of this study, the annual cycle of the Northern Hemisphere storm tracks was investigated using feature tracking and Eulerian variance-based diagnostics applied to both the vorticity and meridional wind fields. Results were presented and discussed for the four seasons at both upper- (250 hPa) and lower- (850 hPa) tropospheric levels. Here, using the meridional wind diagnostics, the annual cycles of the North Pacific and North Atlantic storm tracks are examined in detail. This is done using monthly and 20° longitudinal sector averages. Many sectors have been considered, but the focus is on sectors equally spaced in the two main oceanic storm tracks situated at their western, central, and eastern regions, with the western ones being mainly over the upstream continents. The annual cycles of the upper- and lower-tropospheric storm tracks in the central and eastern Pacific, as well as in the western and central Atlantic sectors, all have rather similar structures. In amplitude, each sector at both levels has a summer minimum and a relatively uniform strength from October to April, despite the strong winter maxima in the westerly jets. However, high-intensity storms occur over a much wider latitudinal band in winter. The storm track in each sector moves poleward from May to August and returns equatorward from October to December, and there is a marked asymmetry between spring and autumn. There are many differences between the North Pacific and North Atlantic storm tracks, and some of these seem to have their origin in the behavior over the upstream East Asian and North American continents, suggesting the importance of seeding from these regions. The East Asian storm track near 48°N has marked spring and autumn maxima and weak amplitude in winter and summer. The 33°N track is strong only in the first half of the year. In contrast, the eastern North American storm track is well organized throughout the year, around the baroclinicity that moves latitudinally with the seasons. The signatures associated with these features are found to gradually decrease downstream in each case. In particular, there is very little latitudinal movement in the storm track in the eastern Atlantic.

Feature analysis of stratospheric wind and temperature fields over the Antigua site by rocket data

The wind and temperature fields at 20 to 55 km above the Antigua launch site (17°N, 61°W) were analyzed by using sounding rocket data published by the research organization on Stratosphere-Troposphere Processes and their Role in Climate (SPARC). The results showed distinct variations in the wind and temperature fields at different heights from the 1960s to the 1990s. The overall zonal wind speed showed a significant increasing trend with the year, and the overall change in meridional wind speed showed a falling trend from 1976 to 1990, whereas the temperature field showed a significant cooling trend from 1964 to 1990. The times the trends mutated varied at different levels. By taking the altitudes at 20, 35, and 50 km as representatives, we found that the zonal wind speed trend had mutated in 1988, 1986, and 1986, respectively; that the meridional wind speed trend had mutated in 1990, 1986, and 1990, respectively; and that the temperature trend had mutated separately in 1977, 1973, and 1967, respectively. Characteristics of the periodic wind and temperature field variations at different heights were also analyzed, and obvious differences were found in time scale variations across the different layers. The zonal and meridional wind fields were basically characterized as having a significant periodic variation of 5 years across the three layers, and each level was characterized as having a periodic variation of less than 5 years. Temperature field variation at the three levels was basically characterized as occurring in 10-year and 5-year cycles.

Seasonal prediction of lightning activity in North Western Venezuela: Large-scale versus local drivers

The Lake Maracaibo Basin in North Western Venezuela has the highest annual lightning rate of any place in the world (~200flkm−2yr−1), whose electrical discharges occasionally impact human and animal lives (e.g., cattle) and frequently affect economic activities like oil and natural gas exploitation. Lightning activity is so common in this region that it has a proper name: Catatumbo Lightning (plural). Although short-term lightning forecasts are now common in different parts of the world, to the best of the authors' knowledge, seasonal prediction of lightning activity is still non-existent. This research discusses the relative role of both large-scale and local climate drivers as modulators of lightning activity in the region, and presents a formal predictability study at seasonal scale.Analysis of the Catatumbo Lightning Regional Mode, defined in terms of the second Empirical Orthogonal Function of monthly Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS-TRMM) and Optical Transient Detector (OTD) satellite data for North Western South America, permits the identification of potential predictors at seasonal scale via a Canonical Correlation Analysis. Lightning activity in North Western Venezuela responds to well defined sea-surface temperature patterns (e.g., El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Atlantic Meridional Mode) and changes in the low-level meridional wind field that are associated with the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone migrations, the Caribbean Low Level Jet and tropical cyclone activity, but it is also linked to local drivers like convection triggered by the topographic configuration and the effect of the Maracaibo Basin Nocturnal Low Level Jet. The analysis indicates that at seasonal scale the relative contribution of the large-scale drivers is more important than the local (basin-wide) ones, due to the synoptic control imposed by the former. Furthermore, meridional CAPE transport at 925mb is identified as the best potential predictor for lightning activity in the Lake Maracaibo Basin.It is found that the predictive skill is slightly higher for the minimum lightning season (Jan–Feb) than for the maximum one (Sep–Oct), but that in general the skill is high enough to be useful for decision-making processes related to human safety, oil and natural gas exploitation, energy and food security.

The Classification of Synoptic-Scale Eddies at 850 hPa over the North Pacific in Wintertime

Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) is applied to the study of the synoptic-scale eddies at 850 hPa over the North Pacific in winter from 1948 to 2010. The western developing pattern synoptic-scale eddies (WSE) and the eastern developing pattern synoptic-scale eddies (ESE) are extracted from the first four leading modes of EOF analysis of high-pass filtered geopotential height. The results show the following: (1) The WSE and the ESE both take the form of a wave train propagating eastward. The WSE reach their largest amplitude around the dateline in the North Pacific, while the largest amplitude of ESE occurs in the northeast Pacific. (2) The WSE and ESE are the most important modes of the synoptic-scale eddies at 850 hPa over the North Pacific, which correspond to the two max value centers of the storm track. (3) In addition to geopotential height, the WSE and the ESE also leave their wave-like footprints in the temperature, meridional wind, and vertical velocity fields, which assume typical baroclinic wave features. (4) The WSE and the ESE have an intrinsic time scale of four days and experience a “midwinter suppression” corresponding to the midwinter suppression of storm tracks.

The Amundsen Sea Low: Variability, Change, and Impact on Antarctic Climate

Abstract The Amundsen Sea low (ASL) is a climatological low pressure center that exerts considerable influence on the climate of West Antarctica. Its potential to explain important recent changes in Antarctic climate, for example, in temperature and sea ice extent, means that it has become the focus of an increasing number of studies. Here, the authors summarize the current understanding of the ASL, using reanalysis datasets to analyze recent variability and trends, as well as ice-core chemistry and climate model projections, to examine past and future changes in the ASL, respectively. The ASL has deepened in recent decades, affecting the climate through its influence on the regional meridional wind field, which controls the advection of moisture and heat into the continent. Deepening of the ASL in spring is consistent with observed West Antarctic warming and greater sea ice extent in the Ross Sea. Climate model simulations for recent decades indicate that this deepening is mediated by tropical variability while climate model projections through the twenty-first century suggest that the ASL will deepen in some seasons in response to greenhouse gas concentration increases.

Causes of change in Northern Hemisphere winter meridional winds and regional hydroclimate

Improved mechanistic understanding of greenhouse gas-induced change in Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation reveals a tendency of models to overestimate future mid-winter rainfall along the North American west coast. A critical aspect of human-induced climate change is how it will affect precipitation around the world. Broadly speaking, warming increases atmospheric moisture holding capacity, intensifies moisture transports and makes sub-tropical dry regions drier and tropical and mid-to-high-latitude wet regions wetter1,2. Extra-tropical precipitation patterns vary strongly with longitude, however, owing to the control exerted by the storm tracks and quasi-stationary highs and lows or stationary waves. Regional precipitation change will, therefore, also depend on how these aspects of the circulation respond. Current climate models robustly predict a change in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) winter stationary wave field that brings wetting southerlies to the west coast of North America, and drying northerlies to interior southwest North America and the eastern Mediterranean3,4,5. Here we show that this change in the meridional wind field is caused by strengthened zonal mean westerlies in the sub-tropical upper troposphere, which alters the character of intermediate-scale stationary waves. Thus, a robust and easily understood model response to global warming is the prime cause of these regional wind changes. However, the majority of models probably overestimate the magnitude of this response because of biases in their climatological representation of the relevant waves, suggesting that winter season wetting of the North American west coast will be notably less than projected by the multi-model mean.

To what extent the presence of real‐strength tropical cyclones influences the estimation of atmospheric intraseasonal oscillation intensity?

AbstractAn idealized dataset that contains a background seasonal mean state, a reference intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) state and real‐strength tropical cyclones (TCs) was constructed, in order to examine to what extent the presence of the real‐strength TCs may impact the overall ISO strength over the western North Pacific. The averaged ISO strength (measured by combined 850‐hPa zonal and meridional wind fields) increases by 9% when the realistic TCs are included. The percentage increase of the overall ISO strength depends on the variable used. It is doubled (reduced to 3%) when the vorticity (stream function) is used as the estimated variable.

Implications of the Semigeostrophic Nature of Rossby Waves for Rossby Wave Packet Detection

Abstract Upper-tropospheric Rossby wave packets have received increased attention recently. In most previous studies wave packets have been detected by computing the envelope of the meridional wind field using either complex demodulation or a Hilbert transform. The latter requires fewer choices to be made and appears, therefore, preferable. However, the Hilbert transform is fraught with a significant problem, namely, a tendency that fragments a single wave packet into several parts. The problem arises because Rossby wave packets show substantial deviations from the almost-plane wave paradigm, a feature that is well represented by semigeostrophic dynamics. As a consequence, higher harmonics interfere with the reconstruction of the wave envelope leading to undesirable wiggles. A possible cure lies in additional smoothing (e.g., by means of a filter) or resorting to complex demodulation (which implies smoothing, too). Another possibility, which does not imply any smoothing, lies in applying the Hilbert transform in semigeostrophic coordinate space. It turns out beneficial to exclude planetary-scale wavenumbers from this transformation in order to avoid problems in cases when the wave packet travels on a low wavenumber quasi-stationary background flow.

Estimation of atmospheric predictability for multivariable system using information theory in nonlinear error growth dynamics

To estimate atmospheric predictability for multivariable system, based on information theory in nonlinear error growth dynamics, a quantitative method is introduced in this paper using multivariable joint predictability limit (MJPL) and corresponding single variable predictability limit (SVPL). The predictability limit, obtained from the evolutions of nonlinear error entropy and climatological state entropy, is not only used to measure the predictability of dynamical system with the constant climatological state entropy, but also appropriate to the case of climatological state entropy changed with time. With the help of daily NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data, by using a method of local dynamical analog, the nonlinear error entropy, climatological state entropy, and predictability limit are obtained, and the SVPLs and MJPL of the winter 500-hPa temperature field, zonal wind field and meridional wind field are also investigated. The results show that atmospheric predictability is well associated with the analytical variable. For single variable predictability, there exists a big difference for the three variables, with the higher predictability found for the temperature field and zonal wind field and the lower predictability for the meridional wind field. As seen from their spatial distributions, the SVPLs of the three variables appear to have a property of zonal distribution, especially for the meridional wind field, which has three zonal belts with low predictability and four zonal belts with high predictability. For multivariable joint predictability, the MJPL of multivariable system with the three variables is not a simple mean or linear combination of its SVPLs. It presents an obvious regional difference characteristic. Different regions have different results. In some regions, the MJPL is among its SVPLs. However, in other regions, the MJPL is less than its all SVPLs.