Meridional Displacement Research Articles

Angular Momentum Transportation by Zonal Circulation Helps Meridional Displacements of East Asian Westerly Jet

ABSTRACTThe meridional displacements of the East Asian westerly jet (EAJ) exhibit remarkable interannual variability characteristics, significantly modulating the weather and climate over East Asia. Our study aims to refine the thermal‐driven (angular momentum transport) and dynamically driven (atmospheric eddy activities) processes that dominate the interannual meridional motion of the wintertime EAJ. We employ the recently proposed three‐pattern decomposition of global atmospheric circulation (3P‐DGAC) theory to decompose the zonal momentum equation for the purpose of diagnosing the zonal momentum budget of the EAJ from three‐dimensional (3D) horizontal, meridional and zonal circulation perspectives. Results indicate that, in addition to the widely recognised driving mechanisms of angular momentum transported by thermal direct meridional Hadley circulation and horizontal eddy momentum flux convergence, the previously neglected role of local zonal circulation in transporting angular momentum significantly impacts the meridional shift of EAJ. The uneven accumulation of angular momentum transported by asymmetric zonal circulations emerges on the northern and southern sides of EAJ axis, causing an abnormal meridional displacement of EAJ. Notably, the local zonal circulation rising from the Tibetan Plateau and descending across the North Pacific Ocean transported angular momentum to the core and downstream regions of EAJ, thereby significantly accelerating zonal winds and pushing the EAJ northward. Further investigation into the potential mechanisms suggests that anomalous snow depth on the southern Tibetan Plateau is the main factor causing abnormal local zonal circulation. Our study addresses the deficiency in traditional two‐dimensional (2D) circulation decomposition methods that neglect the significant role of zonal circulation in the thermal‐driven process of EAJ, complements the understanding of 3D angular momentum transport mechanisms and reveals potential nonlinear synergies of 3D circulations related to the interannual meridional displacement of EAJ.

Circular Asymmetry of Ocean Mesoscale Eddy

Abstract In the global ocean, mesoscale eddies frequently deviate from a circular shape [circular asymmetry (CA)]. On average, anticyclonic eddies display slightly larger asymmetry than that of cyclonic eddies. Both types of eddies exhibit larger asymmetry during the periods of generation and extinction and smaller asymmetry during the intermediate periods. CA’s spatial distribution is dominantly controlled by the eddy’s rotational speed, radius, meridional displacement, and the background oceanic circulation. A decrease in rotational speed, an increase in radius, moving poleward (toward the equator), and/or moving into regions with smaller (larger) mean dynamic topography can enhance the asymmetry of anticyclonic (cyclonic) eddies. A weak advective nonlinearity of the eddy, represented by the ratio of the eddy’s rotational speed to its translation speed, also helps to enhance the asymmetry. Eddy with an asymmetric structure may be important for marine mixing processes. Significance Statement Mesoscale eddies are often assumed to be circular and symmetric. However, global observations reveal that eddies frequently diverge from a circular shape, displaying circular asymmetry (CA). The asymmetric structure of eddy is poorly investigated in the global ocean, especially in regions close to the strong oceanic currents. This study reported the evolution of eddy’s asymmetric structure and its spatial distribution. Statistical results show that CA is dominantly controlled by the eddy’s rotational speed, radius, meridional displacement, and the background oceanic circulation. This study provides a new perspective on the evolution of eddy’s structure and may be important in oceanic mixing.

Auroral Bead Propagation: Explanation Based on the Conservation of Vorticity

AbstractThe beading of auroral arcs often takes place at substorm onset. It is known that auroral beads propagate more often eastward than westward at several km/s, which is difficult to explain by existing models. We investigate this issue observationally and theoretically. First, based on previous research and additional statistical analysis, we suggest that (a) auroral beads often propagate eastward in the presence of westward background convection, and (b) background ionospheric convection may be better represented by large‐scale convection for westward propagation, and by meso‐scale convection for eastward propagation. Then we model auroral beads as vortices of ionospheric flow, and consider the longitudinal propagation of their meridional displacement based on the conservation of vorticity. Here it is crucial that the background zonal flow has vorticity (i.e., flow shear) changing with latitude. It is found that the wave propagates either parallel or anti‐parallel to the background flow depending on whether the background vorticity increases or decreases in latitude, and if its latitudinal scale is significantly smaller than the longitudinal wavelength, the phase velocity exceeds the background flow speed. The result suggests that the latitudinal structure of the background flow is crucial for the bead propagation. More specifically, the aforementioned feature (a) implies that the zonal flow associated with eastward propagation is confined in latitude, which may correspond to the preonset approach of mesoscale flows. In contrast, the large‐scale ionospheric flow suggested for westward propagation as described in (b) may correspond to the global convection of the conventional growth phase.

The out‐of‐phase pattern of summer precipitation over northern China and the possible mechanisms

AbstractThis study explored the interannual characteristics of the out‐of‐phase pattern of summer precipitation over northern China during the past years, as well as the possible underlying mechanisms. The out‐of‐phase pattern is characterized by the positive precipitation anomaly in Northwest China (NWC) and the negative anomaly in North China (NC). Our analyses indicate that the variation of Asian westerly jet (AWJ) is found evidently associated with this out‐of‐phase pattern of summer precipitation. The meridional displacement of AWJ induces opposite trends in water vapour transport and circulation anomalies between NWC and NC, leading to the out‐of‐phase pattern. Further analyses suggest that the anomalies of Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC), North Atlantic and Northwest Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) can impact the variation of AWJ by triggering the Eurasian (EU), polar‐Eurasia (POL) and Pacific‐Japan (PJ) teleconnection patterns, respectively, which in turn modulate the formation of this pattern. The precipitation in NWC is primarily affected by the North Atlantic and Northwest Pacific SST anomalies, whereas the precipitation in NC is notably influenced by both SST anomalies and the Arctic SIC anomaly. However, the role of SST anomalies on precipitation in NWC and NC exhibits an evident contrast, leading to the out‐of‐phase pattern of summer precipitation.

Semi-analytical vibration modeling of complex axisymmetric shells using shifted Legendre series

This paper presents a semi-analytical approach based on the shifted Legendre series for vibration modeling of complex axisymmetric shells. This method divides the structure along its generator into complex axisymmetric shells comprised solely of conical and spherical shell segments. A global cylindrical coordinate system is established to unify the coordinate system of complex axisymmetric shells. Coupling between segments and the simulation of arbitrary boundary conditions are achieved using artificial spring technology. Based on the first-order shear deformation theory (FSDT), the energy functional of each segment is derived. The circumferential displacement is expanded using Fourier series, while the meridional displacement is expanded using the shifted Legendre series at shifted Gauss-Lobatto nodes. Utilizing the inner product matrix and differential matrix of the shifted Legendre series, the integration and differentiation processes in the vibration characteristic equation are simplified into a product form, significantly enhancing computational efficiency. Through convergence analysis and comparison of the computational results of the present method with numerical simulation results, experimental results and literature results demonstrate the advantages of high convergence, high accuracy and fast solution speed of this solution method. On this basis, the vibration characteristics of ring-stiffened double-layer hemispherical shells are investigated. The results demonstrate the great applicability of this method for vibration modeling of complex axisymmetric shells in engineering.

Inter-model spread in East Asian Summer Monsoon onset timing linked to the tropical Pacific and Indian oceans' mean state in CMIP6 models

A major challenge for Earth system climate models in simulating the onset of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is the wide inter-model spread of outputs, which causes considerable uncertainty in projections. Based on 31 models of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), this study investigated the inter-model spread of EASM onset biases and its physical connection with simulated atmospheric circulation and tropical Pacific mean state biases. The inter-model leading mode of EASM onset biases exhibits a meridional seesaw pattern, with inverse patterns for South China and the Yangtze–Yellow River basins. The leading mode is closely related to the simulated meridional displacement of the East Asian subtropical westerly jet (EASWJ) and the Northwest Pacific subtropical anticyclone (WNPAC). The northward EASWJ and WNPAC respectively cause ascending or descending motions with moisture convergence or divergence in the Yangtze–Yellow River basins of South China. The leading mode can be attributed to simulated biases in the zonal tripole sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Statistical analysis and numerical experiments based on CAM5.0 indicate that the SST bias stimulates “double-loop” zonal vertical circulation in the tropical Pacific and Indian oceans, influencing convection precipitation in the tropical central–western Pacific. The altered convection then triggers a Pacific–Japan-like pattern anomaly, forming meridional seesaw circulation and precipitation anomalies in East Asia. Such meridional seesaw circulation modulates the meridional displacement of the EASWJ and WNPAC, thus affecting EASM onset. Our results provide potential indicators of inter-model uncertainty of EASM onset.

Decadal Variations in the Summer Precipitation Over Eastern China Associated With Spring Arctic Sea Ice

AbstractThis study investigated the contribution of Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) on decadal variations of the dominant mode of summer precipitation over eastern China during 1981–2020. The spatial pattern of leading empirical orthogonal function mode has changed from a dipole pattern with negative anomalies over Jianghuai Valley and positive anomalies over southern China during 1981–2001 to the Yangtze River Valley (YRV) pattern during 2002–2020. Spring SIC over Kara Sea was significantly related to the dipole pattern, through influencing Eurasian snow depth. The associated anomalous temperature gradient and atmospheric circulation affected the meridional displacement of the East Asian subtropical jet, which favored the dipole pattern of summer precipitation. For the YRV pattern, spring SIC over Greenland Sea has an impact on the sea surface temperature anomalies in the western Pacific by triggering a wave train that influenced the precipitation through the establishment of the Pacific–Japan pattern. The results of this study may provide reference value for the prediction of summer precipitation over eastern China.

Linkage between the Asian-Pacific Oscillation and winter precipitation over southern China: CMIP6 simulation and projection

Based on the simulations of 30 CMIP6 models, this paper evaluates their performance in simulating the linkage between the winter Asian-Pacific Oscillation (APO) and precipitation over southern China (SC). Results show that 12 out of the 30 models can reproduce well the observed inverse relationship featuring a positive APO phase corresponding to a decrease in SC precipitation. Associated with the positive APO phase, an anomalous anticyclonic circulation dominates the southern part of Asia in the upper troposphere, and an anomalous cyclonic circulation prevails particularly in the lower troposphere of the South China Sea and the Malay Archipelago. Accordingly, the East Asian westerly jet (EAWJ) shifts northward, and low-level northeasterly anomalies appear over SC, which yield anomalous descending motion and water vapor flux divergence in SC, respectively, hence decreasing the in-situ precipitation. Using the ensemble of the 12 models, the future relationship between the winter APO and SC precipitation under the SSP5-8.5 scenario was further projected. The projection indicates that the APO connection with SC precipitation will still be significant, but weakened slightly, during the second half of the 21st century as compared to the present. Such a weakening may result from the weaker linkage between SC precipitation and the meridional displacement of the EAWJ.

Long-Term Changes, Synoptic Behaviors, and Future Projections of Large-Scale Anomalous Precipitation Events in China Detected by a Deep Learning Autoencoder

Abstract The frequency of large-scale anomalous precipitation events over China has increased during 1961–2018. However, it remains challenging to understand the mechanisms associated with these anomalous events showing different spatial patterns. Here, we applied an autoencoder technique to identify large-scale anomalous precipitation events for both observations and model simulations, which were then classified into several patterns through a self-organizing map method. The synoptic behavior and atmospheric circulation background of different anomalous patterns were also analyzed using simultaneous composite analyses. Results show that occurrences of different anomalous precipitation patterns have increased significantly, except those centered in North China, Northeast China, and the Yangtze River basin. The anomalous precipitation patterns manifest various intraseasonal distributions, which are linked to zonal oscillations of the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) and meridional displacements of East Asia westerly jet (EAJ). Accompanied by the westward movement of WNPSH, anticyclonic systems transport warm moist air from the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea to converge with the cold air caused by anomalous cyclones over the northwest flank of the WNPSH, leading to large-scale anomalous precipitation in these regions. Besides WNPSH, the northward and southward displacements of EAJ also favor the occurrence of anomalous precipitation events in northern and southern China, respectively. Our study also illustrates that the occurrence frequency of anomalous precipitation events is projected to increase remarkably under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5–8.5 (SSP585) scenario by rates of twofold to fourfold.

Impact of the Asian–Pacific Oscillation on early autumn precipitation over Southeast China: CMIP6 evaluation and projection

This study evaluated the capability of 32 models of phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project in modeling the influence of the preceding August Asian–Pacific Oscillation (APO) on subsequent early autumn (September) precipitation over Southeast China and associated atmospheric anomalies, as well as its future projection during 2021–2040 (near-term), 2041–2060 (mid-term), and 2081–2100 (long-term) under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs: SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). Results indicated that two-thirds of the individual models yielded positive correlations between the APO and Southeast China precipitation that conformed to the observations. On the basis of the capability to reproduce the significantly positive relationship between the APO and Southeast China precipitation, three models were chosen as the “best” model ensemble (BMME). The BMME effectively simulated both the APO-associated precipitation and the atmospheric anomalies, and outperformed the ensemble of the remaining 29 models in terms of the positive correlation between the APO and Southeast China precipitation, and the negative correlations between the meridional displacement of the East Asian jet (EAJ) and the APO and Southeast China precipitation. In general, during three future time periods under both SSPs, the BMME projected persistent negative correlations between the APO and EAJ, and the APO–Southeast China precipitation and EAJ–Southeast China precipitation relationships were projected to weaken. However, considerable discrepancies were evident among the changes projected by the individual models; only the projected changes in the APO–EAJ relationship showed good model agreement.摘要本文对32个CMIP6模式对8月亚洲–太平洋涛动 (APO) 与我国东南初秋 (9月) 降水及大气环流联系的模拟能力进行了评估, 并就SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5情景下, 未来2021–2040年 (近期) , 2041–2060 (中期) 和2081–2100 (长期) 期间二者联系的变化进行了预估. 基于模式对APO与我国东南初秋降水之间显著正相关关系的再现能力, 选取3个模式作为“最优”模式集合 (BMME) . 研究表明, BMME较好地模拟了与APO相关的我国东南初秋降水和大气环流异常, 且在再现APO与我国东南部降水的正相关关系, 以及东亚高空急流 (EAJ) 经向位移与APO和我国东南部初秋降水之间的负相关关系方面均优于单个模式. 总体而言, 未来不同SSP情景下尽管APO与EAJ之间仍呈负相关关系, 但APO与我国东南初秋降水以及EAJ与我国东南降水的关系将呈减弱确实. 此外, 不同模式预估结果之间存在明显差异, 仅对未来APO-EAJ关系的预估表现出较好的一致性.

Seasonal Meridional Displacement of the Jet Structure of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current South of Africa

This paper describes a method for analyzing the seasonal variability of the structure of the gradient field of Absolute Dynamic Topography (ADT) based on the satellite altimetry data. This structure is understood as the alternation in the meridional direction of the zones of increased values of the absolute values of the ADT gradient and the zones of their lower values, i.e. jets and inter-jet gaps. The technique uses linear and harmonic regression analyzes and makes it possible to calculate the amplitudes and phases of stationary harmonic oscillations that approximate the seasonal variations in the meridional shift of the structure of the ADT gradient field and in the absolute values of the ADT gradient, as well as to estimate the calculation error. Based on this technique, corresponding calculations were made for the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) band south of Africa (from 10 ° W to 25 ° E). In particular, the amplitude of the seasonal variation of the meridional shift of the ADT gradient field for the ACC as a whole was 0.009 ± 0.013° latitude with a maximum northward shift in December. At the same time, there are zones within the ACC band where this amplitude reaches 0.12°, 0.16° and 0.28° latitude. The amplitude of the shift of the indicated field relative to the scale of the ADT itself within the ACC band at different scales is 0.6–2.5 cm. It is shown that this shift is mainly due to the seasonal variation of the ADT at geographic points. The amplitude of the seasonal variation of the ADT gradient modulus relative to both latitude and the ADT scales increases from 1 × 10–3 cm/km in the central part of the ACC to 6–7 × 10–3 cm/km at the southern and northern peripheries.

Interannual Meridional Displacement of the Upper-Tropospheric Westerly Jet over Western East Asia in Summer

Interannual Meridional Displacement of the Upper-Tropospheric Westerly Jet over Western East Asia in Summer

Southern hemisphere monsoonal system during superinterglacial stages: MIS5e, MIS11c and MIS31

The current study investigates changes in Austral Summer Monsoon based on numerical experiments conducted with the coupled ICTP-CGCM model. The interannual variability and intensity of the monsoonal system have been analyzed from vorticity indices and air-sea interaction in Africa, Australia and South America. We focus on interglacial stages MIS5e (127 ka), MIS11c (409 ka) and MIS31 (1072 ka). Results show orbitally-driven decreased summer precipitation and slightly shifted monsoon onset and demise with respect to present day conditions. Sensitivity experiments indicate that monsoons are forced not only by the dominant effect of insolation, but also by remote teleconnections, such as the equatorial Atlantic and Pacific ocean basins. During those interglacial stages, cooling occurs in the Southern Hemisphere whereas Northern Hemisphere substantially warms. This induces meridional displacement of oceanic subtropical high pressure systems and the equatorial convergence zone. Regionally, these mechanisms contribute to droughts over the Amazon and northeastern Brazil, northern Australia and southern Africa. Monsoonal rainfall shows different responses to precessional forcing, as well as the relationship between the monsoon and Niño 3.4 differs among the interglacial stages. Results also indicate a weaker influence of the equatorial Pacific Ocean on the Austral summer monsoon for the MIS31 interglacial stage as compared to current climate conditions across Africa and Australia. On the other hand, South America monsoon is strongly influenced by Niño 3.4 and tropical Atlantic.

Comparison of Intraseasonal Variation of the Meridional Displacement of the Western North Pacific Subtropical High in Early and Late Summer

Abstract The meridional displacement of the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) on an intraseasonal time scale is investigated, with emphasis on differences between early (May–June) and late (July–August) summer. The intraseasonal variation (ISV) of the meridional displacement of the WNPSH is dominated by the 10–30-day period, and the variation amplitude is larger in late summer. The ISV of the WNPSH is attributed mainly to the evolution of an anomalous cyclone/anticyclone north of the WNPSH in early summer, whereas it is due to a south-to-north dipole of an anomalous anticyclone and cyclone over East Asia in late summer. Moreover, the WNPSH tends to shift westward when it moves northward, and vice versa, especially in early summer. Both tropical convection and mid- to high-latitude teleconnection across Eurasia are responsible for the ISV of the meridional displacement of the WNPSH in early and late summer. The role of mid- to high-latitude teleconnection is more important in early summer, whereas tropical convection over the South China Sea is more crucial in late summer, through triggering a Pacific–Japan (PJ) pattern. In early summer, as the WNPSH shifts northward, rainfall increases over the Yangtze River valley and decreases over Southeast China, and vice versa. In late summer, deficient rainfall over North China persists when the WNPSH is at its southernmost location and during its northward shift, and vice versa. The characteristics, underlying processes, and impacts of the 10–30-day meridional displacement of the WNPSH are significantly different in early and late summer.

Quantitative evaluations of subtropical westerly jet simulations over East Asia based on multiple CMIP5 and CMIP6 GCMs

As a salient feature of the Asian monsoon system, the East Asian subtropical westerly jet (EASWJ) exerts significant impacts on weather and climate changes in China and even throughout East Asia. In this paper, we applied a new self-adaptive algorithm to detect the EASWJ, identify its boundaries, and then represent its characteristics by defining three indices: the intensity index, meridional displacement index, and width index. Compared to the reanalysis data, we carried out a comprehensive, objective, and quantitative EASWJ evaluation using historical experiments from multiple global climate models (GCMs) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 5 and 6 (CMIP5 and CMIP6). The results show that the multimodel ensemble mean (MME) of both CMIP5 and CMIP6 can simulate the characteristics of winter EASWJ well. While for the other three seasons, the MME of both phase models underestimate the 200-hPa zonal wind (U200) strength in the jet coverage area and overestimate the U200 outside the jet area, such simulation results weaken the meridional shear of the wind field. The EASWJ simulations from the CMIP5 GCMs had no consistent intensity or location characteristic tendencies, and most CMIP5 GCMs tended to simulate relatively wide-coverage jets. In contrast, most CMIP6 GCMs are inclined to simulate significantly weaker, wider, and more-northward jets. Compared to the predecessors in CMIP5, about half of CMIP6 GCMs significantly minimized the jet intensity bias, but remarkable errors were still observed in their jet location and coverage representations. Furthermore, the comparative analysis performed by classifying models based on their evaluated simulation results suggested that the simulated performance of the meridional temperature gradient was important for capturing the EASWJ characteristics. Further in-depth study of the causes of model differences is warranted to improve simulation results.

Enhanced Predictability of Rapidly Intensifying Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific Associated with Snow Depth Changes over the Tibetan Plateau

Abstract This study finds an enhanced relationship in recent years between January–March eastern Tibetan Plateau snow depth (TPSD) and the frequency of rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones (RITCs) over the western North Pacific (WNP) during the following peak TC season (July–November). The correlation between TPSD and RITCs is significant during 2000–14 but was insignificant during 1979–99. During 2000–14, when TPSD increases, there is an enhanced low-level anomalous anticyclone over the subtropical eastern North Pacific mainly due to the combined effect of advection and dynamics of the climatological prevailing westerly jet. Northeasterly wind anomalies are observed on the flank of the anticyclonic circulation anomaly, favoring anomalously cool sea surface temperature (SST). These anomalies lead to an anomalous pattern similar to the Pacific meridional mode (PMM), via a wind–evaporation feedback and cold advection. A Gill-type Rossby response to the PMM-like negative phase results in an anticyclonic circulation anomaly over the WNP, suppressing RITCs during 2000–14. A nearly opposite circulation anomaly occurred when TPSD was lower during 2000–14. There is a weak relationship between TPSD and RITCs, due to the lack of a link between TPSD and the PMM-like pattern from 1979 to 1999. Decadal changes in the relationship between TPSD and RITCs are mainly due to the meridional displacement of the prevailing westerly jet, which may be in response to decadal-to-multidecadal variability of SST anomalies. These changes then result in changes in the relationship between January–March TPSD and the PMM-like pattern. Significance Statement Forecasts of tropical cyclone rapid intensification, typically defined to be when a tropical cyclone intensifies by at least 30 knots (∼15 m s−1) in 24 h, remain extremely challenging. This study finds an enhanced relationship since the start of the twenty-first century between winter–spring Tibetan Plateau snow depth and western North Pacific rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones, while the relationship between snow depth and rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones was weak from 1979 to 1999. Decadal changes in the relationship between Tibetan Plateau snow depth and western North Pacific rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones is mainly due to the north–south displacement of the prevailing westerly jet, which may be in response to a transition in a midlatitude North Pacific climate mode. This study highlights the importance of the synergetic impact of the land, air, and sea on tropical cyclone climate and provides a potential predictor for seasonal-to-decadal prediction of rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones.

Distinct patterns of monthly Southern Annular Mode events

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is the leading mode of atmospheric variability in the mid–high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere, representing large-scale variations in pressure and the polar front jet (PFJ). In SAM events, the combination of the SAM and other modes may result in different atmospheric patterns. In this study, a neural-network-based cluster technique, the self-organizing map, was applied to extract the distinct patterns of SAM events on the monthly time scale based on geopotential height anomalies at 500 hPa. Four pairs of distinguishable patterns of positive and negative SAM events were identified, representing the diversity in spatial distribution, especially the zonal symmetry of the center of action at high latitudes—that is, symmetric patterns, split-center patterns, West Antarctica patterns, and a tripole pattern. Although the SAM is well known to be belt-shaped, within the selected SAM events, the occurrence frequency of symmetric patterns is only 23.8%—less than that of West Antarctica patterns. Diverse PFJ variations were found in the symmetric and asymmetric patterns of SAM events. The more asymmetric the spatial distribution of the pressure anomaly, the more localized the adjusted zonal wind anomaly. The adjusted PFJ varied in meridional displacement and strength in different patterns of SAM events. In addition, the entrance and exit of the jet changed in most of the patterns, especially in the asymmetric patterns, which might result in different climate impacts of the SAM.摘要南半球环状模 (SAM) 是南半球中–高纬度地区大气变化的主导模态, 表现为气压和极锋急流 (PFJ) 的大尺度变动, 形成强烈的气候影响. 当SAM事件发生时, 气压场异常可呈现出不同的空间结构. 本文利用自组织映射网络方法对月尺度的SAM事件进行分类, 可识别出四对具有显著差异的正, 负SAM事件类型, 包括对称型, 中心分裂型, 西南极洲型和一种三极型分布. 气压异常的空间分布越不对称, 调整后的纬向风异常越局地化. PFJ的经向位移和强度变化入口和出口的变化, 可能导致了SAM的不同气候影响.

A Climatological Study of the Mechanisms Controlling the Seasonal Meridional Migration of the Atlantic Warm Pool in an OGCM

The tropical Atlantic Warm Pool is one of the main drivers of the marine intertropical convergence zone and the associated coastal Northeast Brazilian and West-African monsoons. Its meridional displacement is driven by the solar cycle, modulated by the atmosphere and ocean interactions, whose nature and respective proportions are still poorly understood. This paper presents a climatological study of the upper ocean and lower atmosphere contributions to the warm pool seasonal migration, using an Ocean General Circulation Model (OGCM). First, we provide quantitative, albeit simple, pieces of evidence on how the large amplitude of migration in the west, compared to the east, is mainly due to the strong east–west contrast of the background meridional SST gradient intensities, which is maintained by equatorial and eastern tropical upwellings. Our main results consist first in identifying a diagnostic equation for the migration speed of the two meridional boundary isotherms of the Warm Pool, expressed in terms of the various mixed-layer heat fluxes. We then evidence and quantify how, in general, the migration is forced by air–sea fluxes, and damped by ocean circulation. However, remarkable controls by the ocean are identified in some specific regions. In particular, in the northwestern part of the Warm Pool, characterized by a large temperature inversion area, the boreal spring northward movement speed depends on the restitution of the solar heating by the thermocline. Additionally, over the southern part of the Warm Pool, our study quantifies the key role of the equatorial upwelling, which, depending on the longitude, significantly accelerates or slows down the summer poleward migration.

Climatic factors contributing to interannual and interdecadal variations in the meridional displacement of the East Asian jet stream in boreal winter

We employ the fifth generation of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis to investigate the leading mode of the East Asian zonal wind and the contribution of associated climatic factors in boreal winter during 1979–2020. The dominant mode, accounting for 46% of the explained variance, indicates that the East Asian subtropical jet (EASJ) and East Asian polar frontal jet (EAPJ) are meridionally displaced in opposite directions. The corresponding first principal component (PC1) shows clear interannual and interdecadal variations, with a regime shift in the year 1997. The dominant mode is significantly related to the Niño3.4 sea surface temperature (SST), the Barents–Kara Seas (BKS) sea ice concentration (SIC), the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the Tibetan Plateau (TP) surface air temperature (SAT) on interannual and interdecadal timescales. Multiple linear regression with these variables reproduces PC1 well. The interdecadal variation of PC1 is dominated by the BKS SIC and Niño3.4 SST. The Niño3.4 SST explains more than half of the variance of PC1 on an interannual time scale, which is more than all of the other factors combined. The El Niño phase and BKS SIC are associated with the distance between the EASJ axis (EASJA) and the EAPJ axis (EAPJA). The AO and TP SAT may influence the meridional migration of the EASJA and EAPJA, respectively. The distance between the EASJA and EAPJA also depends on the configuration of the southern Asian cyclone and Siberian anticyclone.

Meridional displacement of the Asian jet and its impact on Indian summer monsoon rainfall in observations and CFSv2 hindcast

Meridional displacement of the Asian jet and its impact on Indian summer monsoon rainfall in observations and CFSv2 hindcast