Mere Guess Research Articles

Working Memory Swap Errors Have Identifiable Neural Representations.

Working memory is an essential component of cognition that facilitates goal-directed behavior. Famously, it is severely limited and performance suffers when memory load exceeds an individual's capacity. Modeling of visual working memory responses has identified two likely types of errors: guesses and swaps. Swap errors may arise from a misbinding between the features of different items. Alternatively, these errors could arise from memory noise in the feature dimension used for cueing a to-be-tested memory item, resulting in the wrong item being selected. Finally, it is possible that so-called swap errors actually reflect informed guessing, which could occur at the time of a cue, or alternatively, at the time of the response. Here, we combined behavioral response modeling and fMRI pattern analysis to test the hypothesis that swap errors involve the active maintenance of an incorrect memory item. After the encoding of six spatial locations, a retro-cue indicated which location would be tested after memory retention. On accurate trials, we could reconstruct a memory representation of the cued location in both early visual cortex and intraparietal sulcus. On swap error trials identified with mixture modeling, we were able to reconstruct a representation of the swapped location, but not of the cued location, suggesting the maintenance of the incorrect memory item before response. Moreover, participants subjectively responded with some level of confidence, rather than complete guessing, on a majority of swap error trials. Together, these results suggest that swap errors are not mere response-phase guesses, but instead result from failures of selection in working memory, contextual binding errors, or informed guesses, which produce active maintenance of incorrect memory representations.

Loop by Karen Akins (review)

Reviewed by: Loop by Karen Akins Kate Quealy-Gainer Akins, Karen Loop. St. Martin’s Griffin, 2014 [336p] Trade ed. ISBN 978-1-250-03098-6 $18.99 E-book ed. ISBN 978-1-250-03099-3 $9.99 Reviewed from galleys R Gr. 8-10 In the twenty-third century, a select few have the genetic ability to travel through time. These “Shifters” are tightly controlled by the government, trained in special schools, and sent on time-travel missions by the upper elite. Bree is using her Shifting midterm, a trip to the twenty-first century, as an opportunity to gain more than just a good grade in history; an offer from a shady conman to deliver contraband back in time might just be able to pay the medical bills for her comatose mother. The mission goes awry, however, and Bree ends up accidentally bringing back twenty-first-century resident Finn, who insists that he knows a future version of Bree, a version who made him promise to protect her, though from what he can’t say. Akins fully embraces the mind-bending complications inherent to time-travel plots, creating a world in which time travel is possible but not entirely understood and its rules are more mere guesses than scientific fact. This makes any implausibility easier for the reader to swallow and also lends a breezy casualness to the premise that suits Bree’s narrative voice, an amusing mix of snark, befuddlement, and dogged determination. Multiple threads are tied up with infodumps in the final pages, but these are balanced out nicely with wicked chase scenes, including a scaling of the Washington Monument. Readers might want to double back a few times to fully realize the sequence of events, but it’s a return trip worth taking. Copyright © 2014 The Board of Trustees of the University of Illinois

Calling controversy: assessing synthetic biology’s conflict potential

Will synthetic biology elicit controversies similar to those of genetically modified crops before? Maybe, but where exactly are the analogies, and how can we gain substantial insights rather than mere guesses? We argue that as well as the intrinsic properties of the technologies at stake, the context of their implementation is decisive. To assess mechanisms of past and potential controversies, an investigative tool is presented. The Gate Resonance model, derived from older models of societal conflict, allows the identification of key elements of conflict generating processes. In monitoring the developing debate on synthetic biology using this model, analogies to the case of genetically modified crops appear less convincing. So far, there are only few indications that a controversy is imminent.

A Contrast between Mothers' Assessments of Child Malnutrition and Physical Anthropometry in Rural Mexico: A Mixed Methods Community Study

Objective To compare mothers' assessments of nutritional status with anthropometric measures and gain further insights into mothers' reasons for their judgment. Design Each mother was asked to assess the nutritional status of her child and 2 other children and to compare all 3. Rates for “hits” and “misses” between mothers' assessment and physical anthropometry were analyzed using the binomial test. The rationale for the mothers' assessments was explored through open-ended questions. Setting A rural clinic in an indigenous area of Mexico. Participants 31 mothers of children 1-5 years of age. Main Outcome Measures Physical anthropometry and mothers' assessments. Results A significant proportion ( P ≤ .01) of mothers matched the anthropometry on weight for age and weight for height but not on height for age; only when assessing their own child, and when comparing weight for age of their own child with the first child used for comparison. Mothers based their assessment on the child's physical appearance, energy, eating behavior, and on their own performance as caregivers. Conclusions and Implications Mothers' assessments were better than mere guesses. Their understanding of children's nutritional status in particular and health in general should be used to design more effective and sustainable communication messages, properly combining mothers' and health providers' constructs. It is also important to find ways to make mothers recognize stunting as a nutrition-related problem.

Unveiling China's True Population Statistics for the Pre-Modern Era with Official Census Data

Opinions have long been divided as to what the actual size of China's population was in the past and how it fluctuated over time. When trying to make sense of pre-modern Chinese population dynamics, most scholars have been forced to resort to crude estimates or mere guesses. More often than not, these estimates/guesses do not agree with each other. The margin of disagreement can be as great as a half of the population. As a result, statistics related to China's pre-modern population situation are marked by confusion and inaccuracies. Even though these estimates/guesses have become increasingly sophisticated over time, they are unsupported by China's own census records. As a consequence, they are untrustworthy. By utilizing China's real-time, adjusted dynastic official censuses to obtain a clearer and more accurate picture of China's pre-modern population dynamics, the present research represents a departure from the typical methodological approach to the subject. Specifically, instead of avoiding the official data, this research tackles head on the seeming inconsistencies in China's official censuses by investigating the institutional reasons for the disparities in the form of different taxation policies implemented by various regimes over the long run. In order to control the influence caused by taxation policies on China's censuses, adjustments, minimal in nature, are made. The result is a consistent set of population data for the entire period of 2 A.D. throughout 1911. This is a breakthrough. A main task of this research is the vigorous testing of the accuracy of China's pre-modern official censuses. The tests strongly indicate that the census-based series are fundamentally sound: institutionally, economically, sociologically and biologically (i.e., in terms of human reproductive parameters). The conclusion is that Chinese official census data are actually more accurate and reliable than all the modern-day estimates or guesses. This research sheds new light on how China's population grew and fluctuated. It also indicates how pre-modern Chinese society functioned, and how its economy performed over time.

Vasiliev's paraconsistent logic interpreted by means of the dual role played by the double negation law

Vasiliev's paraconsistent logic is interpreted by differentiating in a scientific theory among axiom-principles, methodological principles and mere guess. The three kinds of sentence fit the three kinds of Vasiliev's sentences when "S is A" is translated in ¬¬A→A, and accordingly the remaining two sentences. In this interpretation it is shown that the parallelism Vasiliev claimed to hold between his logic and Lobachevskii's non-Euclidean geometry may be formalised. Between the two formal paraconsistent systems previously suggested - i.e. Arruda's one and da Costa and Puga's one - the latter one fits the above interpretation..

Demonstration of a persisting exo-erythrocytic cycle in Plasmodium cynomolgi and its bearing on the production of relapses. 1948.

From the earliest days of the modern study of malaria the phenomenon of relapses in this disease has been invested with a mystery which has been responsible for various hypothetical solutions made in an attempt to explain the known facts. The first of these facts is that periods of patent infection accompanied by the demonstrable presence of parasites in the peripheral blood are often succeeded by more or less prolonged periods when no such parasitaemia can be demonstrated. This condition is described as latent malaria, and it may supervene in the natural course of the disease or may be produced artificially by the use of antimalarial therapy which destroys the erythrocytic infection. Another fact is that such relapses are often precipitated by any happening which causes a temporary lowering of the host's resistance, and the problem here is the source of the parasites producing the relapse. A third fact is that the various species of malaria parasites vary in their tendency to relapse and in the period of years during which relapses may recur. A final fact relates to artificially produced infections. Those which are produced as the result of inoculation of blood show no tendency to relapse after antimalarial treatment, while those induced by sporozoite inoculations, either artificially or by mosquito bite, tend to produce relapses after the cessation of treatment. The extent to which these facts are explained by the finding that is the subject of this communication is dealt with in the discussion. Up to the present time three commonly adduced explanations of relapses have held the field, but, in the absence of accurate knowledge of the life-cycle of malaria parasites, none could claim greater weight than a mere guess. These theories are: (a) The continued existence of a low-grade erythrocytic infection kept in abeyance by the host's immune mechanism but flaring up on any impairment of the latter; (b) the theory of the parthenogenetic development of the female gametocyte (Grassi, 1900; Schaudinn, 1902) ; (c) the existence of a cryptic stage in the internal organs capable of producing an erythrocytic invasion on any lowering of the host's resistance. The third of these theories gained added weight with the discovery of the exo-erythrocytic cycle in bird malaria, where these forms play an important, if not the essential, part in the causation of relapses. The possibility that the hypothetical exo-erythrocytic cycle in mammalian malaria played a similar part in the production of relapses has been put forward at various times by many workers, and the names given in brackets are only a representative selection from workers who have made such a suggestion, after the first establishment of a definite exo-erythrocytic cycle in bird malaria by James and Tate in 1937. (James and Tate, 1937; Shortt, Menon, and Iyer, 1940; Fairley, 1945; Huff, 1947; Cooper, Ruhe, and Coatuey (personal communication to Huff), 1947; Shortt and Garnham, 1948.) The discovery recorded in this paper of the continued existence in monkey malaria of the exo-erythrocytic cycle after establishment of the blood infection would appear to constitute the strongest proof that this form of the parasite is the aetiological agent concerned in the production of relapses. When we (Shortt and Garnham, 1948) published a detailed description of the pre-erythrocytic cycle in P. cynomolgi and P. vivax we suggested that if this cycle was found to persist after establishment of the blood infection it might play an essential part in the maintenance of the infection over long periods and in the production of relapses, so that the present work is the logical sequence to the experiment establishing the pre-erythrocytic cycle in mammalian malaria. To investigate the theory of the persistence of the exo-erythrocytic cycle and its relation to relapses, examination of infected monkeys a considerable time after the establishment of sporozoite-induced infections seemed to offer the most direct approach to the problem. …

Economists, Vocational Evaluators, and Residual Employability: Pitfalls in the Estimation of Future Income Losses

Abstract No abstract available.

The Difficulty About Conjunction in Forensic Proof

Dawid's analysis of the conjunction problem in civil cases is open to three objections. A Bayesian analysis is inappropriate; not all the relevant probabilities are based on testimony; and the requisite size of the relevant prior probabilities is not justifiable. In The Probable and the Provable (Cohen, 1977) I argued that paradox confronted any attempt to analyse the standard of proof in civil cases as requiring a balance of Pascalian (i.e. standardly conceived) probability in favour of the plaintiff's conten- tions. Even if each of two independent elements in the plaintiff's case has a Pascalian probability of 07, the probability of their conjunction will be only 049, so that the overall balance of probability lies against the plaintiff. There would thus be a requirement that, as the number of independent elements increases, the threshold of proof for each of them would rise. But the law recognises no such requirement. A. P. Dawid (1987) proposes to resolve this paradox by a Bayesian analysis, which requires that, in order to succeed as a conjunction of several issues, 'a case must have a prior probability in excess of a value somewhere in the range 02-03, depending on the number of issues'. His ingenious analysis is, however, open to the following three objections. First, Dawid presents a Bayesian analysis, with a typically subjective interpretation of the probability of a 'unique' event in terms of prior or posterior 'odds'. But it is unrealistic to evaluate propositions about the past in those terms, since, in default of a Wellsian time-machine, we can never verify whether such wagers are won or lost. A Pascalian analysis of forensic probabilities that presupposes any of the usual subjectiv- ist interpretations is a castle that is built on sand. Even to get off the ground some other type of interpretation would be needed, such as one in terms of propensities or one in terms of logical relations. Secondly, and more importantly, Dawid discusses only those cases in which the posterior probability of a particular contention is grounded directly on testimonial evidence. In very many cases, however, some or all of the probabilities at issue are founded on facts that are themselves the subject of testimony. For example, it may be necessary to evaluate the probability that a man was of sound mind at the date at which he wrote his will, and this probability has to be judged by reference to facts about his behaviour that witnesses report. Dawid's treatment achieves nothing to- wards resolving the paradox in such cases. Thirdly, even in relation to those cases to which it does apply, Dawid's analysis explicitly requires that the prior probability of the case against the defendant be in excess of a value somewhere in the range of 02-03. At the same time, according to standard legal procedure, the plaintiff's proof ought not to be evaluated by the court's trier of fact on the basis of any facts that are neither before the court nor matters of common knowledge. Mere guesses are not good enough in a court of law. But we would all be living in a rather sick community if the appropriate prior probability was known to be as high as 02-03 in an ordinary civil case. Is there really such a high known proportion of debtors, or of contract-breakers, or of tort-feasors? More than 1

Dynamics of Viscoelastic Structures—A Time-Domain, Finite Element Formulation

Mathematical models of elastic structures have become very sophisticated: given the crucial material properties (mass density and the several elastic moduli), computer-based techniques can be used to construct exotic finite element models. By contrast, the modeling of damping is usually very primitive, often consisting of no more than mere guesses at “modal damping factors.” The aim of this paper is to raise the modeling of viscoelastic structures to a level consistent with the modeling of elastic structures. Appropriate material properties are identified which permit the standard finite element formulations used for undamped structures to be extended to viscoelastic structures. Through the use of “dissipation” coordinates, the canonical “M, K” form of the undamped motion equations is expanded to encompass viscoelastic damping. With this formulation finite element analysis can be used to model viscoelastic damping accurately.

ΛΕΥΚΑΣ ΠΕΤΡΗ

In the second Nekyia Hermes conducts to Hades the souls of the suitors slain by Odysseus:Even in antiquity the identification of the Λευκ⋯ς πέτρη was a conundrum. It would seem that no ancient Greek scholar could plausibly locate this rock. According to the scholion in the codex Venetus Marcianus 613, one of the many reasons Aristarchos gave for athetising the whole of the second Nekyia was ⋯λλ' οὐδ⋯ ἔοικεν εἰς Ἅιδου λευκ⋯ν εἶναι πέτραν. Certainly Hades had πέτραι, but traditionally they were ‘black-hearted’ or ‘blood-red’, not λευκαί. As an example of the lengths to which scholiasts were driven to justify the epithet Λευκάς, the scholion in the British Library codex Harley 5674 has the unhelpful explanation οἱ γ⋯ρ νεκροί ⋯κλείψαντος το⋯ αἵματος λευκοειδεῖς ⋯ρ⋯νται. Eustathios' attempt is not much better; he writes ἰστέον δ⋯ ὅτι Λευκάδα μέν πέτραν ⋯ μ⋯θος πρ⋯ς τῷ Ἅιδῃ πλάττει ἢ κατ⋯ ⋯ντίɸρασιν, μ⋯λας γ⋯ρ ⋯κεῖ σκότος, ἢ κα⋯ δι⋯ τούς ⋯σχάτους τ⋯ς ⋯κεῖ γ⋯ς τόπους, οὓς εἰκ⋯ς τ⋯ν ᾓλιον ἔτι διαλευκαίνειν δυόμενον. At Od. 10.515, in commenting on the πέτρη where the Pyriphlegethôn and the Kôkytos flow into the Acherôn, he ventures the suggestion ἴσως δ⋯ εἴη ἂν αὕτη ⋯ ⋯ν τοῖς μετ⋯ τα⋯τα λεχθησομένη Λευκ⋯ς πέτρα, which is obviously a mere guess. It would be a waste of time to record the conjectural attempts of modern scholars to locate the Λευκ⋯ς πέτρη in Hades, for if the ‘Rock Leukas’ was across the Ocean, near the ‘Gates of the Sun’ and the ‘Land of Dreams’, we cannot reasonably hope to identify it.

Substitute Teachers: Current Status and Some Suggestions for Improvement

Little research exists concerning substitute teachers, with the result that they are frequently employed and assigned on the basis of mere guess- work. Some con siderations and some approaches that would allow school systems to upgrade the use of substitutes are offered here.

Federal Reserve Board Committee Reports on Consumer Expectations and Savings Statistics

IN the fall of I954 the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System at the request of the Subcommittee on Economic of the Joint Committee on the Economic Report appointed consultant committees to study certain aspects of economic statistics. The committee reports were submitted during the summer of I955 and were published shortly thereafter both by the Federal Reserve Board and the U. S. Government Printing Office Two of the reports contain extensive discussions of survey statistics which call for some comment.' I am sure that the substantial work carried out by the eminent committees appointed by the Federal Reserve Board will prove useful. Only the future can tell what specific effects the reports and the publicity given to them will have. I may mention a few probable beneficial effects of the reports on consumer statistics. The first aspect relates to consumer economics. Regarding the past neglect of consumers by economists, it may suffice to recall that not so long ago of the three sectors of the economy only two, business and government, were assumed to be autonomous in generating income and shaping economic trends. During the last ten years, however, the importance and autonomy of consumers have been much more widely recognized. The impact of rising incomes and the influence of purchases of consumer durables on business-cycle trends, the work of Arthur Burns and the National Bureau, the Surveys of Finances conducted cooperatively by the Federal Reserve Board and the Survey Research Center, as well as the progress of market research brought about this recognition. The Smithies report will add to it. Secondly, regarding the use of sample interview surveys for economic research, the unequivocal statement about the indispensability (page i) of survey statistics, and the cogent arguments marshalled in explanation of the statement, will no doubt accelerate the current trend. Turning to a third aspect, the intermarriage of socio-psychological studies with more narrowly conceived economic studies, we find that the reports do not consider explicitly the basic problems of cross-disciplinary or behavioral research. Nevertheless, the emphasis placed on the study of attitudes, expectations, and intentions in the one, and on savings habits and purposes in the other report will, I believe, facilitate the task of students of businessmen's and consumers' behavior. Finally, I expect positive results from the committees' insistence on more methodological research. As a mere guess, I may say that in my opinion government agencies and foundations, even if they hesitate to adopt some of the more extensive and expensive recommendations, will be responsive to methodological projects suggested by the committees. In commenting on the reports I shall be concerned exclusively with scientific conclusions. Regarding the extensive observations about operational techniques and organizational matters, I might say simply that I agree with most conclusions. I feel especially indebted to the members of the committees for recommending that more complete data be collected, more frequent periodic surveys conducted, the analysis of results extended, and further checks on the accuracy of results sought. I shall here consider fundamental problems of theory and research design, regarding which there exist some differences of opinion, rather * This paper was delivered at a joint meeting of the American Economic Association and the American Statistical Association in New York, 29 December, I955. The author is Program Director of the Survey Research Center, University of Michigan, which conducts the Surveys of Finances for the Federal Reserve Board. 1 The two reports to be discussed here are entitled Consumer Survey (Chairman, Arthur Smithies) and Statistics on Saving (Chairman, Raymond Goldsmith). The reports will be referred to by the names of the committee chairmen. The page references in this paper refer to the Federal Reserve Board publications.

The Bird 'Anūq

It has long been known that the ancient Arab philologists not infrequently misinterpreted difficult words and that, consequently, Arabic lexicons contain a number of unwarranted explanations. The principal reason for such errors was that rare words were often interpreted by mere guess, when the fault lay with the professional philologists. In other instances, certain words were misunderstood and wrongly applied before Arabic philology came into existence and the philologists had no choice but to assign them the meanings attributed by tradition or actually found in oral or literary usage, although when checked by literary evidence, the explanations were often wrong. Words of foreign origin in particular underwent that process on being accepted into the Arabic language but doubtless, indigenous words, too, became so affected.

The Mythological Background of Habakkuk, Chapter 3

IN THE first number of the Journal of Near Eastern Studies I published a study of the Psalm of Habakkuk in which I pointed out that the relationship of the chapter to the ancient myth of the divine combat had long been recognized, and that some scholars had actually identified allusions to the Babylonian Epic of Creation. I showed, however, that this clue had been inadequately exploited, for in reality the poem related a course of action which follows, with only slight deviation in order at a few points, the story of Marduk's acceptance by his colleagues, his arming, his advance to the fight with Tiamat, the course of the conflict, his victory, and the slaughter of the foe.' It became apparent then that, with the theme and the movement of the chapter thus made clear, the textual critic possessed a highly important clue with which to approach the problems that this passage manifests in more than normal profusion. I set myself to the task, and presented results which, I stated, were of varying cogency all the way from mere guesses to somewhat probable readings. I concluded with a few comments on the

SCIENCE, COMMON SENSE AND DECENCY*

We must stress that the article of Dr. Langmuir deals with two entirely different worlds, the physico-mathematical world of exact sciences, where the aristotelian principles do not apply fundamentally; and the human world, still ruled by antiquated aristotelian methods, which are in the main responsible for the present-day tragedies and confusion. It is not enough to contemplate the limitations of the methods of exact sciences. Our work is introductory to that new world in which physico-mathematical methods can be generalized to human problems, where those limitations will be non-existent. --Excerpted from the Foreword by Alfred Korzybski UP TO THE beginning of the present century one of the main goals of science was to discover natural laws. This was usually accomplished by making experiments under carefully controlled conditions and observing the results. Most experiments when repeated under identical conditions gave the same results. The scientist, through his own experiments, or from previous knowledge based on the work of others, usually developed some theory or explanation of the results of his experiments. In the beginning this might be a mere guess or hypothesis which he would proceed to test by new types of experiments. If a satisfactory theory is obtained which seems in accord with all the data and with other known facts, the solution or goal of the investigation was considered to have been reached. A satisfactory theory should make possible the prediction of new relationships or the forecasting of the results of new experiments under different conditions. The usefulness of the theory lies just in its ability to predict the results of future experiments. The extraordinary accomplishments of the great mathematical physicists in applying Newton's laws to the motions of the heavenly bodies gave scientists of more than a century ago the conviction that all natural phenomena were determined by accurate relations between cause and effect. If the positions, the velocities and the masses of the heavenly bodies were given it was possible to predict with nearly unlimited accuracy the position of the bodies at any future time. The idea of causation, or a necessary relation of cause and effect, has long been embedded in the minds of men. The recognized responsibility of the criminal for his acts, the belief of the value of education, and thousands of words in our language all show how implicitly we believe in cause and effect. The teachings of classical science, that is, the science up to 1900, all seem to reinforce this idea of causation for all phenomena. Philosophers, considering many fields other than science, were divided in their opinions. Many went so far as to believe that everything was absolutely fixed by the initial conditions of the universe and that free will or choice was impossible. Others thought that cause and effect relations were mere illusions. From the viewpoint of the early classical scientist, the proper field for science was unlimited. Given sufficient knowledge, all natural phenomena, even human affairs, could be predicted with certainty. Ampere, for example, stated that if he were given the positions and velocities of all the atoms in the universe it should be possible theoretically to determine the whole future history of the universe. Practically, of course, such predictions would be impossible because we could never hope to get the necessary knowledge nor the time to carry out such elaborate calculations. A little later, scientists developed the kinetic theory of gases according to which the molecules of a gas are moving with high velocity and are continually colliding with one another. They found that the behavior of gases could be understood only by considering the average motions of the individual molecules. The particular motion of a single molecule was of practically no importance. They were thus taught the value of statistical methods, like those which insurance companies now use to calculate the probable number of its policy holders that will die within a year. …

Science, Common Sense and Decency

We must stress that the article of Dr. Langmuir deals with two entirely different worlds, the physico-mathematical world of exact sciences, where the aristotelian principles do not apply fundamentally; and the human world, still ruled by antiquated aristotelian methods, which are in the main responsible for the present-day tragedies and confusion. It is not enough to contemplate the limitations of the methods of exact sciences. Our work is introductory to that new world in which physico-mathematical methods can be generalized to human problems, where those limitations will be non-existent. --Excerpted from the Foreword by Alfred Korzybski UP TO THE beginning of the present century one of the main goals of science was to discover natural laws. This was usually accomplished by making experiments under carefully controlled conditions and observing the results. Most experiments when repeated under identical conditions gave the same results. The scientist, through his own experiments, or from previous knowledge based on the work of others, usually developed some theory or explanation of the results of his experiments. In the beginning this might be a mere guess or hypothesis which he would proceed to test by new types of experiments. If a satisfactory theory is obtained which seems in accord with all the data and with other known facts, the solution or goal of the investigation was considered to have been reached. A satisfactory theory should make possible the prediction of new relationships or the forecasting of the results of new experiments under different conditions. The usefulness of the theory lies just in its ability to predict the results of future experiments. The extraordinary accomplishments of the great mathematical physicists in applying Newton's laws to the motions of the heavenly bodies gave scientists of more than a century ago the conviction that all natural phenomena were determined by accurate relations between cause and effect. If the positions, the velocities and the masses of the heavenly bodies were given it was possible to predict with nearly unlimited accuracy the position of the bodies at any future time. The idea of causation, or a necessary relation of cause and effect, has long been embedded in the minds of men. The recognized responsibility of the criminal for his acts, the belief of the value of education, and thousands of words in our language all show how implicitly we believe in cause and effect. The teachings of classical science, that is, the science up to 1900, all seem to reinforce this idea of causation for all phenomena. Philosophers, considering many fields other than science, were divided in their opinions. Many went so far as to believe that everything was absolutely fixed by the initial conditions of the universe and that free will or choice was impossible. Others thought that cause and effect relations were mere illusions. From the viewpoint of the early classical scientist, the proper field for science was unlimited. Given sufficient knowledge, all natural phenomena, even human affairs, could be predicted with certainty. Ampere, for example, stated that if he were given the positions and velocities of all the atoms in the universe it should be possible theoretically to determine the whole future history of the universe. Practically, of course, such predictions would be impossible because we could never hope to get the necessary knowledge nor the time to carry out such elaborate calculations. A little later, scientists developed the kinetic theory of gases according to which the molecules of a gas are moving with high velocity and are continually colliding with one another. They found that the behavior of gases could be understood only by considering the average motions of the individual molecules. The particular motion of a single molecule was of practically no importance. They were thus taught the value of statistical methods, like those which insurance companies now use to calculate the probable number of its policy holders that will die within a year. …

Defect in the Youth Correction Authority Act

Every year we put a large number of criminals into prison Every year we let a large number of criminals out of prison Every year we put back a large number we have previously let out It seems a futile procedure. Naturally this has evoked the criticism that the criminal law does not adequately protect the community, and our method of sentencing criminals immediately stands out as a major defect. A Judge gives a sentence for a definite period. It may be not more than, nor less than, a certain number of years but it is fixed within limits and this fixed period need have no relation to the time necessary for the individual's rehabilitation. As a consequence men who are still dangerous get out of prison and commit new crimes, and men who are not dangerous are kept in prison, their spirit and standards destroyed, and through contact with vicious criminals they are manufactured into vicious criminals themselves. The rule at many summer camps for boys is that no boy is allowed to go in a canoe until he has shown that he can swim a hundred yards. The non-swimmers are put into the hands of the swimming instructor, who helps each boy to learn. Some boys learn quickly, others find it slow work, and occasionally there is a boy who somehow does not seem able to learn how to swim. The present method of dealing with criminals applied to a summer camp would be this: The boys would be assigned dates in advance when they would be allowed to go in a canoe. For some the date and the ability to swim a hundred yards would coincide. For some the date set would be long after they had learned to swim. For others the date would arrive before they had learned to swim; they would go out in canoes and some of them would be drowned. In short to attempt to determine in advance how long rehabilitation will take is a mere guess, an attempt at prophesy; and there seems no reason to prophesy when you can wait to see what happens, and then decide.

Modern Culture and the New European War

WE STAND at the beginning of events of enormous importance. It is too early to form an opinion as to how these events will develop—whether it will be a long-lasting war or if all will be finished when these lines are published—whether other nations and countries will be involved in the struggle besides those who began it, or in other words whether this war will become really a world catastrophe or if it will be relatively localized—which way Chance will turn and what will be the final result of the war? Trying to answer these questions would be mere guess work, without any sufficient foundation. One thing only one might say with entire certainty: it is not a simple war-like episode the beginning of which we witness, it is an event, or rather a series of events of world importance, a. turning point in European history. And in so far as European Culture has become World Culture, the new European War may be considered as a turning point in the life of the whole world.

George Hooker Colton and the Publication of "The Raven"

ALTHOUGH the story of the first printing of Raven in the American Review: A Whig Journal of Politics, Literature, Art and Science has often been told by Poe scholars, much injustice has been done the relationship between Edgar Allan Poe and George Hooker Colton, the young editor of the Review. As the result of a mere guess that James Russell Lowell made in a letter to Poe, dated December I2, I844, the legend has been generally accepted that Colton was so hostile to Poe that Poe preferred to submit Raven anonymously through his friend, John Augustus Shea. Hervey Allen is the chief offender in drawing dramatic conclusions from Lowell's casual observation. He ignores completely the weight of evidence which proves beyond reasonable doubt that Poe and Colton enjoyed a cordial friendship and that Colton very willingly co-operated with Poe in his subtle methods of advancing his own work. The letter from Lowell to Poe was an answer to Poe's request for a recommendation. In the fall of I844 Poe, who was then doing hack work for Willis's Mirror and none too happy in it, wished to secure a better editorial connection. Lowell wrote to Poe that he had recommended him to his friend, Charles F. Briggs, who was about to found a new literary paper, the Broadway Journal. Lowell stated also that he took the liberty of praising you to a Mr. Colton, who has written Tecumseh . . . & whom I suspect from some wry faces he made on first hearing your name, you have cut up. He is publishing a magazine & I think I convinced him that it would be for his interest to engage you permanently. But I know nothing whatever of his ability to pay.... You must excuse me if I have blundered in recommending you to Colton. I know nothing of your circumstances save what I gleaned from your last letter, and, of course, said nothing to him which I might not say as an entire stranger to you. It is never safe to let an editor (as editors go) know that an author wants his pay.'