Menu Costs Research Articles

Standard Errors for Calibrated Parameters

Abstract Calibration, the practice of choosing the parameters of a structural model to match certain empirical moments, can be viewed as minimum distance estimation. Existing standard error formulas for such estimators require a consistent estimate of the correlation structure of the empirical moments, which is often unavailable in practice. Instead, the variances of the individual empirical moments are usually readily estimable. Using only these variances, we derive conservative standard errors and confidence intervals for the structural parameters that are valid even under the worst-case correlation structure. In the over-identified case, we show that the moment weighting scheme that minimizes the worst-case estimator variance amounts to a moment selection problem with a simple solution. Finally, we develop tests of over-identifying or parameter restrictions. We apply our methods empirically to a model of menu cost pricing for multi-product firms and to a heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model.

Price Setting and Price Stickiness: A Behavioral Foundation of Inaction Bands

Abstract This paper puts forward a behavioral theory of price setting where managers maximize perceived profits following a process of mental accounting. The theory predicts a pricing rule that is similar to—but crucially different from—that of a standard menu cost theory: there is an inaction band, but there are two rather than just one target prices, depending on whether the firm updates its price upwards or downwards. The calibrated model replicates two patterns of price microdata that standard menu cost models have difficulty accounting for: (i) The distribution of price changes has both small and large price changes, and (ii) the hazard function of price changes is downward sloping initially, that is, firms that have just recently changed their price have a higher probability of changing it again, while this probability becomes constant thereafter.

Asymmetry and non-linearity in exchange rate pass-through: Evidence from scanner data

Using retail scanner data from Kazakhstan, an emerging economy with significant and unexpected exchange rate fluctuations, we observe an incomplete yet substantial exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) into prices. Specifically, we note a 50% change occurring a year after the initial shock. The ERPT demonstrates asymmetry in response to exchange rate movements. Notably, the direction of this asymmetry is opposite for imported versus domestic products. Furthermore, our findings indicate that ERPT is non-linear; the price response is more pronounced when the exchange shock is small, aligning with the existence of menu costs. Understanding these asymmetric and non-linear price responses to exchange rate shocks may be crucial for formulating effective inflation targeting policies, especially in emerging economies prone to high inflation.

Nonlinear Dynamics in Menu Cost Economies? Evidence from U.S. Data

We show that standard menu cost models cannot simultaneously reproduce the dispersion in the size of micro-price changes and the extent to which the fraction of price changes increases with inflation in the U.S. time-series. Though the Golosov and Lucas (2007) model generates fluctuations in the fraction of price changes, it predicts too little dispersion in the size of price changes and therefore little monetary nonneutrality. In contrast, versions of the model that reproduce the dispersion in the size of price changes and generate stronger monetary non-neutrality predict a nearly constant fraction of price changes.

The roles of price points and menu costs in price rigidity

Macroeconomic models often generate nominal price rigidity via menu costs. In scanner databases, (1) price points, embodied in nine-ending prices, account for two-thirds of prices; (2) at the conclusion of sales, post-sale prices return to their pre-sale levels more than three-fourths of the time; and (3) such memory around sales is stronger if the pre-sale price was a price point. Extending a canonical menu cost model to allow for price points, I estimate an incentive to set nine-ending prices two orders of magnitude larger than the menu costs. The choice of a mechanism for price rigidity matters for aggregate dynamics.

Nonlinear Inflation Dynamics in Menu Cost Economies

Canonical menu cost models, when parameterized to match the micro-price data,cannot reproduce the extent to which the fraction of price changes increases with inflation. They also predict implausibly large menu costs and misallocation in the presence of strategic complementarities. We resolve these shortcomings by extending the multiproduct menu cost model along two dimensions. First, the products sold by a firm are imperfect substitutes. Second, strategic complementarities are at the firm, not product level. In contrast to standard models, the fraction of price changes increases rapidly with the size of monetary shocks, so our model implies a non-linear Phillips curve.

Nonlinear Dynamics in Menu Cost Economies? Evidence from U.S. Data

Nonlinear Dynamics in Menu Cost Economies? Evidence from U.S. Data

New Pricing Models, Same Old Phillips Curves?

Abstract We show that in a broad class of menu cost models, the first-order dynamics of aggregate inflation in response to arbitrary shocks to aggregate costs are nearly the same as in Calvo models with suitably chosen Calvo adjustment frequencies. We first prove that the canonical menu cost model is first-order equivalent to a mixture of two time-dependent models, which reflect the extensive and intensive margins of price adjustment. We then show numerically that in any plausible parameterization, this mixture is well approximated by a single Calvo model. This close numerical fit carries over to other standard specifications of menu cost models. Thus, for shocks that are not too large, the Phillips curve for a menu cost model looks like the New Keynesian Phillips curve, but with a higher slope.

Asset bubbles and inflation as competing monetary phenomena

In an economy in which adjusting prices comes at a fixed menu cost, a baseline Taylor rule generates multiple equilibria with varying price rigidity, inflation, and real interest rate. Asset bubbles may be sustained as long as prices are rigid, they burst as inflation picks up and the real rate reverts to a long-term value at which bubbles are no longer sustainable. Unlike natural bubbles, these policy-induced bubbles once issued always crowd out investment by draining resources from the most financially constrained agents.

The real effects of monetary shocks: Evidence from micro pricing moments

Empirically, what pricing moments are informative about monetary non-neutrality? The frequency of price changes is robustly informative among a set of pricing moments and across specifications: A lower frequency is statistically significantly associated with higher monetary non-neutrality, in line with models of price rigidities. Other moments that describe the price change distribution are not consistently or significantly related to monetary non-neutrality. While the frequency explains the largest share of variation in non-neutrality, no pricing moments individually or jointly explain a majority of the variation in a linear empirical setting. Non-pricing moments explain additional variation, however are not consistently associated with monetary non-neutrality. A multi-sector menu cost model featuring different price adjustment technologies across sectors can rationalize our main findings.

Persistent Monetary Non-neutrality in an Estimated Menu Cost Model with Partially Costly Information

We propose a model that reconciles microeconomic evidence of frequent and large price changes with sizable monetary non-neutrality. Firms incur separate lump-sum costs to change prices and to gather and process some information about marginal costs. Additional relevant information is continuously available and can be factored into pricing decisions at no cost. We estimate the model by Simulated Method of Moments, using price-setting statistics for the US economy. The model with free idiosyncratic and costly aggregate information fits well both targeted and untargeted microeconomic moments and generates almost three times as much monetary non-neutrality as the Calvo model. (JEL D21, D83, E23, E31, L11)

ТЕОРІЯ ГРОШЕЙ ТА КРЕДИТУ У ПОГЛЯДАХ СУЧАСНИХ МОНЕТАРИСТІВ

The article discusses the main provisions and ideas of the new monetarists. Unlike the "classical" monetarism, the new one is the result of the challenges that arise in modern economies and the partial inability of classical monetary instruments to adequately influence the money and financial markets. The main ideas and approaches of modern new monetarists are that the use of the main monetary policy instruments has different efficiency and time lags. This is due to the fact that specific economic decision makers at the macro level make decisions about spending money or obtaining a loan. To take this fact into account, new models of money and credit need to be created using microanalysis tools and institutionalism. It should not be forgotten that money or credit markets at different economic levels can be differentiated or homogeneous, so there can be "friction" between money market participants and economic phenomena or, on the contrary, they can go smoothly and without any complications or losses. The new monetarists also drew attention to the fact that the money market is subject to the phenomena of "sticky" prices, "menu costs," bank raids, and "noise search." Representatives of the new monetarism analyzed in detail the role of central banks and electronic money. As they point out, the role of central banks will grow and their influence will become so significant that they can only announce the need to raise or lower interest rates without conducting real financial transactions, and the market will do everything in the right direction. According to the new monetarists, electronic money is in its infancy and its potential is still unexplored, but it is real and should be taken into account when developing monetary policy. According to the new monetarists, the market is significantly influenced not only by money transactions and the money supply that serves them, but also by credit and the processes that arise around it. While classical monetarism regulates the money supply through the money supply, the discount rate, and the purchase/sale of securities, modern monetarists believe that the money supply is influenced by the supply of credit funds and imperfect market information.

Do menu costs lead to hysteresis in aggregate output? The experiences of some agent-based simulations

AbstractThe transitory shock of the financial crisis of 2008 pushed most economies to permanently lower-level growth paths than those prevalent before the crisis, which can be considered as a manifestation of hysteresis. It is well known that some fixed adjustment costs lead to hysteresis in aggregate output. This paper investigates within an agent-based model, whether the fixed costs of price adjustment (menu costs) lead to the same result. Hysteresis emerges in some simple variants of the model independently of firms being assumed boundedly or perfectly rational, but these model variants fit to the empirical data poorly. The model's empirical performance can be improved by assuming that firms are hit by idiosyncratic productivity shocks, but these shocks eliminate hysteresis generated by menu costs. However, hysteresis survives even in their presence, if it is generated by demand-supply interactions, i.e., positive feedbacks from the output gap to potential output. Our conclusion is that if one would like menu costs to serve as an at least as relevant explanation for the hysteretic dynamics of aggregate output as demand-supply interactions, one has to find an alternative assumption to replace idiosyncratic productivity shocks as a mechanism to assure good empirical fit for the model.

Rational inattention, menu costs, and multi-product firms: Micro evidence and aggregate implications

Using a New Zealand firm-level survey, I show that firms producing more goods have both better information about inflation and more frequent but smaller price changes. To explain these empirical findings, I develop a general equilibrium menu cost model with rationally inattentive multi-product firms. I show that the interaction of nominal and informational rigidities leads to a new selection effect: Price adjusters are better informed than non-adjusters. This selection endogenously generates a leptokurtic distribution of desired price changes, which amplifies monetary non-neutrality. Compared to a one-product baseline, the real effects of monetary shocks are 12 percent smaller in a two-product model.

Exchange Rate Volatility, Inflation and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: Panel Data Approach for SADC

In the Southern African Development Community, the relationships between exchange rate instability, inflation and economic growth remain at the forefront of economic debate because of the historical antecedent and economic clustering of member countries. Nonetheless, much is not known regarding the complexity, complementarity or substitutability of exchange rate instability and inflation on economic growth for SADC countries. This article examined the influence of exchange rate instability on the inflation–growth nexus of the region for the period of 2000 to 2018. Three major techniques of analyses, Pooled Mean Group (PMG), Generalised Moments (GM) and Dynamic Fixed Effect (DFE), were employed in achieving the goal of the study, but the Pooled Mean Group estimator of the Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag was favoured by the Hausman test as the main instrument. The GARCH (1, 1) was also employed to generate exchange rate instability. The findings of the study showed that exchange rate instability and inflation have a negative relationship with economic growth of the region. Results further show evidence that economic growth of the region is adversely influenced by the consequential effect of exchange rate instability on inflation: the higher the level of instability in exchange rate, the worse the inflationary-growth relationship of the region. This confirms the menu cost theory of price setting: the higher the rate of inflation, the quicker the exchange rate pass-through effect. It is therefore recommended that policies to ensure appreciation of local currencies should be the priority of member nations.

Pricing Behaviour and Menu Costs in Multi‐product Firms

This paper investigates the micro‐foundations of pricing behaviour using monthly producer prices for Norwegian multi‐product firms. We find both infrequent and many small price changes together with a high degree of within‐firm synchronization. This points at fixed menu costs featuring scope economies, at additional linear and convex price adjustment costs, and at the presence of firm‐specific shocks. The structural estimates and a simulation support the view that in order to understand pricing behaviour and the effectiveness of monetary policy, the analysis of multi‐product firms and a richer price adjustment technology in the intermediate goods sector is valuable.

Product Life Cycle, Learning, and Nominal Shocks

Abstract This article documents a new set of stylized facts on how pricing moments depend on product age and emphasizes how this heterogeneity is crucial for the amplification of nominal shocks to the real economy. Exploiting information from a unique panel containing billions of transactions in the US consumer goods sector, we show that our empirical findings are consistent with a narrative in which firms face demand uncertainty and learn through prices. Such a mechanism of active learning from prices can strongly influence an economy’s aggregate price level and can thus be important for assessing the degree of monetary non-neutrality. To quantify this, we build a general equilibrium menu cost model with active learning and exogenous entry that features heterogeneity in pricing moments over the life cycle of products. Under this setup, firms engage in active learning to deal with uncertainty on their demand curves. Firms choose prices not only to maximize static profits but also to create signals to obtain valuable information on their demand. In the calibrated version of our model, the cumulative real effects of a nominal shock are approximately three times as large compared to a standard price-setting model. The main intuition behind this result is that active learning weakens the selection effect. Price changes are mainly determined by forces of active learning and, hence, become more orthogonal to aggregate shocks, which reduces the aggregate price flexibility of the economy.

Does product revenue matter for price setting and monetary policy transmission?

Using retail scanner data, we find that the probability of price adjustment increases with a product's revenue, and the average absolute size of price adjustment decreases with the product's revenue. Furthermore, the responsiveness of prices to monetary shocks increases with product revenue. These facts are consistent with menu cost models in which the menu cost increases less than one-for-one with revenue, and inconsistent with models in which the menu cost increases one-for-one with revenue. In a calibrated menu cost model, the real effect of monetary policy is smaller in economies in which the price response to monetary policy shocks increases with revenue than in economies where no such relationships exist. Together with cyclical shifts in the revenue distribution, the increase in price responsiveness with revenue introduces a counter-cyclical effect that strengthens the real effect of monetary policy during recessions.

Phillips Correlation and Price‐Change Distributions under Declining Trend Inflation

AbstractThe relationship between inflation dynamics and micro‐level pricing behavior is an underexplored research area. In this article, we first document that deflationary periods in Japan were associated with (i) variations in the distribution of price changes at the micro level, and (ii) a weakening in the Phillips correlation at the macro level. We construct a multisector general equilibrium model with sector‐specific menu costs, a feature that is supported by our estimation using sectoral data, and show that declining trend inflation and an increasing share of services in private consumption together can quantitatively explain the above two observations.

Menu costs and information rigidity: Evidence from the consumption tax hike in Japan

Pre-announced consumption tax changes can provide an opportunity for firms to reset their prices, which potentially leads to an economic stimulus. To test this argument, I examine firms’ price-setting behavior in response to Japan’s consumption tax hike in 2014. I find that prices became less sticky after the tax hike, suggesting that firms paid menu costs when passing through the tax hike to their prices. Nonetheless, I find that more than half of prices remained constant on a tax-excluded basis after the tax hike. This finding suggests that another factor prevented firms from adjusting their prices, though they paid menu costs.