Abstract Purpose The aim of our paper is to investigate the role of a mentor leading a research team in the overall scientific performance of an academic institution and the possible risks of their departure with a special attention to their publication output. Design/methodology/approach By using SciVal subject area data, we composed a formula describing the level of vulnerability of any given university in the case of losing any of its leading mentors, identifying other risk factors by dividing their careers into separate stages. Findings It turns out that the higher field-weighed citation impact is, the better position universities reach in the rankings by subject and the vulnerability of institutions highly depends on the mentors, especially in view of their contribution to the topic clusters. Research limitations The analysis covers the publication output of leading researchers working at four Hungarian universities, the scope of the analysis is worth being extended. Practical implications Our analysis has the potential to give an applicable systemic approach as well as a data collection scheme to university managements so as to formulate an inclusive and comprehensive research strategy involving the introduction of a reward system aimed at publications and further encouraging national and international research cooperation. Originality/value The methodology and the principles of risk assessment laid down in our paper are not restricted to measuring the vulnerability level of a limited group of academic institutions, they can be appropriately used for investigating the role of mentors or leading researchers at every university across the globe.