Medium-term Cycles Research Articles

The relation between football clubs and economic growth: the case of developed countries

It is believed that societies use sports as a tool for their social and cultural development. In particular, developed countries have embraced sports as part of their lives and have ranked it as a source of economic growth. The increase in sports consumption and industries can contribute to economic growth, and economic growth can have a positive impact on sports industries vice versa. The wavelet methodology is a way to discover the relationship between sports and economic growth by examining frequency and time domain aspects and identifying shorter to longer-term relationships continuously. The industrial production of different countries has experienced short and medium-term cycles around the year 2020. In contrast, the values of football clubs in these countries have shown minimal fluctuations, despite the emergence of some areas with slight significance. The cross wavelet analysis asserted the significance relation revealed after the covid 19 restrictions, both in shorter and longer periods. The wavelet coherence analysis showed that co-movement was observed in short-term cycles in countries across the periods while long-term co-movements are observed only in only in small areas or generally out of cone of influence.

Wavelet transform coupled with Fischer plots for sequence stratigraphy: A case study in the Linxing area, Ordos Basin, China

Accurately dividing stratigraphic sequence using traditional data such as core and logging data is challenging due to the insufficient availability of paleontological fossils and rock data, particularly in Carboniferous-Permian strata of the Linxing area of Ordos Basin, dominated by lagoons, barrier islands, and tidal flat sedimentation. This drawback hinders the exploration and exploitation of hydrocarbon reservoirs. To address this issue, this study presents a combination of continuous wavelet transform (CWT) and Fischer plots, enabling the accurate identification of each level of sequence boundary and high-resolution sequence stratigraphic correlation. The optimal scale factors, 120, 60, and 20, are determined by applying different scale factors to gamma ray (GR) curves corresponding to long-term cycle, medium-term cycle, and short-term cycle divisions, respectively. The analysis of sequence characteristics of numerous core segments and the corresponding CWT results (i.e., wavelet coefficient curve and time-frequency energy spectrum) led to the identification of three main types of medium-term cycles (i.e., progradational, regressive, and aggradational) that were then applied to the entire well section of the study area. Moreover, the Fischer plots method was used to identify the long-term cycle based on the determination of medium-term cycles and the division of short-term cycles. This method provided intuitive identification of the relative changes in sea level position. Additionally, the characteristics of sea level changes were consistent with the results of the sea level analysis of rock and logging curves. Therefore, the combination of CWT and Fischer plots can effectively and comprehensively establish an isochronous stratigraphic framework for clastic rock hydrocarbon reservoirs, similar to this study.

Commodity price shocks: Order within chaos?

The prices of 27 internationally traded commodities are decomposed into transitory and permanent components by applying an ideal band-pass filter to monthly data during 1970–2022. The two components account roughly equally to price variations, but with wide heterogeneity. The permanent component accounts for two-thirds of the variability in agricultural prices but less than 30 percent in energy prices. The transitory component revealed three medium-term cycles. The first (from the early 1970s to the mid-1980s) and third (from the early 2000s to 2020) exhibit similar duration and involve almost all commodities, while the second (spanning the 1990s) is mostly applicable to metals, with the notable absence of energy. The permanent component differs across commodities, with an upward trend for most industrial commodities and downward trend for agriculture. Moreover, the permanent component of commodities in which investment is irreversible (including energy, metals, and tree crops) exhibits a high degree of nonlinearity, most likely reflecting less flexibility in investment allocation and input use of these commodities. Prices of commodities subjected to widespread policy interventions, such as internationally-coordinated supply management schemes, exhibit persistent deviations from linear trends.

Modelling of Passenger Air Transportation Prices

The pricing policy of airlines is developed based on a retrospective analysis of the price dynamics of air transportation and forecasting the market situation of supply and demand. The price dynamics of passenger air transportation has a certain structure and patterns, the identification of which helps to develop a competitive price offer for consumers.The objective of the work is to determine the structure of price dynamics and identify patterns of price fluctuations in passenger air transportation from 2008 to 2022, which is important to consider when developing the pricing policy of airlines and the range of tariffs. Studies of the price dynamics of airline tickets by econometric methods allowed to identify the structure of the time series of prices and develop several models.The study of the price dynamics structure, first, identified and analysed the seasonal component of the dynamics of airline ticket prices. Its calculation was carried out using additive and multiplicative models. The range of seasonal changes was -8,5% to +12,5%. The autocorrelation function of the dynamics of average monthly prices showed that the time series of airline ticket prices contained a trend. In addition to trend and seasonal components, cyclical fluctuations were identified in the price dynamics, the modelling of which was carried out based on regression analysis. Cyclical changes in the dynamics of air ticket prices, identified from 2008 to the present, are not sustainable.Analysed dynamics revealed several medium-term cycles with a duration of 4–6 years. The cyclical dynamics of air transportation prices largely coincides with the general economic medium-term cycles, but there are time lags or lagging growth and decline rates.Thus, the change in prices for civil air transportation has a natural trend-cyclical character shaped under the influence of fundamental macroeconomic factors and new determinants, the effect of which may result in a stronger change but with shorter impact or lag effect. Additive and multiplicative models will help predict average annual prices.

Commodity Medium-Term Cycles and Transition to Green Energies: a Markov Switching Model

Commodity Medium-Term Cycles and Transition to Green Energies: a Markov Switching Model

Commodity Medium-Term Cycles and Transition to Green Energies: A Markov Switching Model

This study uses an AR model with Markov Switching approach to forecast the real growth of copper price using 2 regimes: expansion and contraction. We expect an increase in the demand for metals in the medium term due to the transition to green energies. In the estimated model, we see that the contractive state presents a negative growth, while the expansionary state shows a growth equal to 3.57 percent annually. The filtered and smoothed probabilities show that the real growth of copper is in the expansionary state most of the time (approximately the 82.56 percent of the time of the sample period). Thus, we provide evidence that in the medium-run term (next 20 years), it is expected that the real price of copper grows at the same rate as the expansionary state of its previous medium-run term cycle, which is equal to 3.57 percent annually.

The Sequence Stratigraphic Division and Depositional Environment of the Jurassic Yan’an Formation in the Pengyang Area, Southwestern Margin of the Ordos Basin, China

Coal and organic-rich shale in the Yan’an Formation in the southwestern margin of the Ordos Basin are widely developed, which is an important fact for oil and gas exploration in China that has been widely explored for a long time. In this paper, detailed sequence division and sedimentary environment analyses of the Yan’an Formation in the Pengyang area on the southwestern margin of the Ordos Basin were conducted using field outcrops, drilling cores, logging, wavelet transform and organic geochemistry. The results showed that the succession consists of some units with distinctly different characteristics. Based on the petrographic assemblage and transform wavelet characteristics, the Yan’an Formation in this area can be divided into a long-term cycle, five medium-term cycles, and eleven short-term cycles, among which coal and carbonaceous shale were mainly developed in the short-term cycles I2, III1, III2, V1 and V2. Coal and organic-rich mud shale have been developed in the Yan’an Formation and plant debris in mudstone and coal is common, indicating the development of swamps and shallow water-covered depressions in this area. The sandstones showed parallel bedding, cross-bedding and scours, thus indicating fluvial deposits. The saturated hydrocarbon gas chromatographic parameters of mud shale showed that the pristane/phytane (Pr/Ph) ratio is 2.24–6.22, the Ph/nC18 ratio is 0.15–0.93, and the Pr/nC17 ratio is 0.97–2.78, supporting the finding that the organic matter has mainly originated from terrestrial sources.

Analysis of the Trade Cycle in the UK and its Relationship to the Business Cycle

This study aims to analyze the trade cycle in the UK and analyze its relationship to the business cycle. This study uses secondary quarter data in the form of exports, imports, and UK GDP from 1987 to 2016. Band-pass filter data filter method is used in this study to isolate short-term cycles and assume an average growth of each variable. The results of this study indicate that the trade cycle in the UK has a medium-term cycle of around 2-4 years for both exports and imports. And there is a significant relationship between global economic events and movements in the trade cycle. Like in the early 2000s and late 2008. The relationship that exists in the cycle, especially the trade cycle between exports and imports, is found to be procyclical where the conditions are mutually exclusive. Meanwhile, between the trade cycle and the business cycle in the UK, there are many counter-cyclical situations where the relationship between the two cycles is inversely proportional. This is different from the findings of previous studies.

Influence of mid-term base level cycle changes on the development characteristics of shallow water delta sand bodies: A case study of the Fuyu oil layer in the Mu 17 block in the southern Songliao Basin

The Fuyu oil layer in the southern Songliao Basin is a shallow-water delta sedimentary system. Frequent changes in the base level lead to obvious differences in the superimposed style, scale and geometry of the sand bodies, which seriously affects the distribution of remaining oil. Taking the Fuyu oil layer in the Mu 17 block in the southern Songliao Basin as an example, using a large number of cores and logging data in the dense well pattern development area, based on the relationship between the accommodated space (A) and the sediment supply (S), it is clear that The Fuyu oil layer develops the superimposed styles of cut-stack, superimposed and isolated sand bodies. In the depositional period of MSC1 and MSC2, the superimposed style of the cut-and-stacked sand body was the main one; in the depositional period of MSC3, the superimposed style of the superimposed sand body was dominant; in the depositional period of MSC4, the sand body was the least developed, and the superimposed style of the isolated sand body was the main one.This study has important guiding significance for clarifying the influence of medium-term base level cycle changes on the superposition law of shallow water delta sand bodies.

Faraway, so close! International transmission in the medium-term cycle of advanced economies

Large US firms, by diffusing embodied technology through trade in intermediates, appear to drive Europe's output over the medium term. We develop a two-country model of endogenous growth in varieties, cross-country firm heterogeneity and trade to match this evidence. A US TFP slowdown generates a pronounced recession in Europe, while a negative investment-specific shock also imparts a protracted recession in the US since GDP and firm productivity stay below trend beyond a decade. Heterogeneous firms, with endogenously changing productivity cut-offs, and the responses of innovators and adopters determine medium-term adjustment, as import switching processes unfold.

The Transformation of Economic Crises: Meaningful Constancy in Changing Forms

The article deals with the comparative analysis of the medium–term cycles the economic activity the scale of the world and Russian economy. The economic situation in 2008–2020 was similarly charactarized by balternating recessions, plateaus and rises in both the Russian and global economies. It is a big question whether well–known crises of 2008, 2014 and 2020 were standard resale crises, and the wobbling of sanctions and the coronavirus pandemic are new secondary factors of market fluctuations.

Конъюнктура еврозоны: итоги развития за 20 лет

Received 03.11.2020. The article deals with the features of the dynamics of the Eurozone’s general business situation (GBS) for the 20 years of its existence. A comparative analysis of the integration bloc GBS within the framework of two full medium-term reproduction cycles (2002–2007 and 2008–2018) is carried out using different economic indicators: value added of different industries, industrial production, manufacturing production, real GDP, real GDP per capita, gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) rate, returns on GFCF rate, employment. The recession of 2020 is considered preconditioned (regardless of the COVID-19 repercussions), as the duration of the business cycle since 2008 was approaching the maximum duration of the Juglar cycle (11 years) and signs of a downturn were appearing in 2018. The feature of the second medium-term cycle is outlined – mainly recovery rather than net economic growth, which justifies identification of the Eurozone development since 2008 as the lost decade. An attempt is made to identify long waves in the development of the Eurozone GBS, possible timeframes thereof are hypothesized using GDP per capita as well as labor productivity growth rates. Period of 1996–2011 is suggested as an ascending wave, period of 2012–2019 (and later) – as a descending wave. The conclusion is made on the relatively less favorable Eurozone GBS in the second decade of the XXI century within both the second medium-term cycle and the long wave. The problem (crisis) of competitiveness of the integration bloc as a main factor of such a dynamics is outlined. In this regard a modification of the medium-term reproduction cycle in the second decade of the XXI century is revealed on the basis of the Eurozone member states GBS analysis. The modification consists in a low representativeness of industrial (and manufacturing) production index as an indicator for identifying the phases of the medium-term cycle, and in extraordinary patterns of the industry (and its manufacturing part) dynamics, which result in completion of the medium term cycle without the index reaching its pre-crisis levels in a number of Eurozone countries. This new normality calls forth to reconsider to some extent such GBS theoretical categories as cycle boundaries and peak. In conclusion, forecasts are made regarding the end of the current descending long wave in the mid-2020s and possible GBS improvement within the medium-term cycle in this period subject to reasonable economic policy aimed at tackling the Eurozone competitiveness crisis.

Medium-term cycles in affordability: what does the house price to income ratio indicate?

Using the Christiano-Fitzgerald filter to extract business and medium-term cycles, this paper considers house price, gross domestic product per head and the ratio of the two for the UK over 1955–2020. It shown that, although the synchronisation of business and medium-term cycles is associated with the largest price and ratio events, there a shift of volatility from the former to the latter cycle range, which begins in the 1980s. The medium-term cycles are closely aligned. Indeed, the phase-leading role of income over the others is at odds with current stabilisation policy thinking. The trend in income growth is steady but then, around 2002 peters into a stagnant period. The trend in the house price-income ratio is remarkably stable, but in the era of finance liberalisation, that stability is disrupted both in trend and cycle. This appears to be altered by the adjustment to greater financial accessibility. In effect, this trend traces the amount of debt that an agent's income is expected to service when purchasing a dwelling, or the real interest rate. Any return to the normal cost of capital could have a severe impact on borrowers.

Euro Housing Market Co-Movement: Medium vs. Short-Term Cycles

A lack of co-movement among the national housing markets in the euro monetary union makes the job of the ECB difficult. If markets are depressed in some countries, while booming in others, the ECB would be unable to create simultaneous loose and tight monetary conditions tailored to each national situation. Co-movement across national housing markets has thus been a topic of several previous studies. Most of these papers focused on business-cycle frequency dynamics. Medium term cycles, however, have been shown to play a more important role for long-run output and the financial cycle than short-term fluctuations. We examine both business cycle and medium-term components of housing in eight euro nations. We find that the medium cycle is more volatile than the business cycle component in all markets. This indicates the medium cycle plays a more important role for housing in the long-run than short-term fluctuations. We find, however, that there is greater co-movement among the medium cycles of different national housing markets than between the short-term fluctuations. We also find that co-movement of short-term cycles did appear to spike subsequent to the euro’s adoption, but that this greater apparent integration did not persist, and short-term co-movement has fallen in recent years. Finally, although medium-term co-movement is for most countries higher than that of the business cycle frequency, this greater synchronization does not appear to be a function of the euro common currency itself.

On the credit-to-GDP gap and spurious medium-term cycles

I provide empirical evidence suggesting that the credit-to-GDP gap is subject to spurious medium-term cycles, i.e. artificial boom–bust cycles with a maximum duration of around 40 years.

Influence of Cyclical Patterns on Innovation and Transformation Processes in the Economy

Purpose: the main purpose of this article is to present and develop a cyclic approach in the theory of innovation. This section of economic theory is based on the understanding of the innovation process as a dynamic system that develops (depending on the type of innovation) within the medium or long-term cycle. The cyclic approach has an insufficiently studied subject of research. In theoretical and practical aspects, this approach is very poorly developed, despite its prospects for this method. The application of the cyclic approach in the practical sphere will increase the effectiveness of activities planning in the field of the state innovation policy, as well as increase the efficiency of the state resources using.Methods: a set of methods of theoretical research is used, including: logical, system and abstract methods, as well as specific scientific (special) research methods. Based on the study of a wide range of scientific literature, as well as statistical and factual information on innovative issues, models (modeling method) were drawn up, which were graphically fixed in the figures illustrating the main provisions of the article.Results: this article develops the cyclic approach to the innovations study, proposed in the works of foreign and domestic scientists. The article describes and presents a scientific method of innovative processes management, called "triad of innovative and transformative activity". The article also contains a brief overview of the cyclic method development in the works of domestic and foreign researchers, giving a general idea of the elaboration degree of the scientific question.Conclusions and Relevance: the analysis of the main theories and concepts in the field of innovation, gives reason to argue that scientific views on the implementation of the innovation process contain a serious omission. It consists in the fact that it does not take into account the influence of cyclical conditions of various medium-term cycle phases or long-term cycle stages. In practice, this leads to asynchronous processes that prevent the effective innovation activities.

Medium-term cycles in the dynamics of the Dow Jones Index for the period 1985–2019

The problem of showing the existence of cycles in the dynamics of economic systems has attracted the interest of diverse researches in the last century. The motivation relies on the fact that cycles would imply that the evolution of the economic system is intrinsically marked by non-steady growth trends, but by expansion–contraction mechanisms. Inventory Kitchin (∼40 months), fixed investment Juglar (7–11 years), infrastructural Kuznets (15–25 years), and long-term technological Kondratieff (40–60 years) cycles are at the center of the discussion. Commonly, spectral analysis applied to typical economic signals (e.g., GDP, unemployment rate, and industrial output) is used for gaining valuable insights on cyclical movements of the economic activity. However, the analysis is limited by the relatively low size of real data, as economic variables are sampled at low frequencies (annual and quarterly). This work uses stock market variables (returns and traded volume) to explore the existence of cycling behavior. The approach is based on the time variations of the Hurst exponent computed by means of the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). The Hurst exponent of the traded volume showed a clear cycle with period ∼8.0 years, while for returns the dominant period was ∼10.5 years, which are within the range of fixed capital investment Juglar cycles. Finally, the use of cycles of the Hurst exponent as a proxy for studying economic recession forecasting is discussed.

Российская экономика: между кризисами

The article analyzes the dynamics of the Russian economy during the crisis of 2015–2016 and subsequent stagnation in 2017–2019. The main components of economic policy are examined and institutional trends that determine macroeconomic dynamics, in particular, consumer demand, investment in fixed assets, foreign trade conditions and the orientation of economic institutions, are evaluated. A comparison is made of the immediate causes and institutional conditions for the formation and manifestation of crises in the Russian economy. It is shown that, in accordance with the general theory of economic cycles and crises, external resource demand shocks are a direct reason for the formation of the medium-term financial and economic cycle in the Russian economy, integrated into the global market environment. A comparative study of the scenarios and parameters of the Russian economic crises of the 1990s and 2000s showed that the main reason global shocks, standard in scale and mechanism of impact, have a deeper and longer impact on the Russian economy, creating large-scale and deep financial economic crises, has been ongoing since the early 1990s. and the crisis of fundamental institutional conservatism that has not been overcome so far, which prevented the formation of internal compensators and stabilizers that can weaken or even block the effect of external shocks. It is shown that the exit of the Russian economy from the crisis of 2015–2016 is blocked by two main factors: 1) the beginning of the next cycle of recession in the global economy, which creates new demand and resource external shocks, 2) the stability of the extractive nature of Russian economic institutions that are not oriented towards creating a platform economic growth, but, on the contrary, on the deactivation of growth resources

On the Credit-to-GDP Gap and Spurious Medium-Term Cycles

On the Credit-to-GDP Gap and Spurious Medium-Term Cycles

On the Credit-to-GDP Gap and Spurious Medium-Term Cycles

The Basel III framework advises considering a reference indicator at the country level to guide the setting of the countercyclical capital buffer: the credit-to-GDP gap. In this paper, I provide empirical evidence suggesting that the credit-to-GDP gap is subject to spurious medium-term cycles, i.e. artificial boom-bust cycles with a maximum duration of around 40 years. This may impair its use as a reference indicator.