Mediterranean Heavy Precipitation Events Research Articles

Northwestern Mediterranean Heavy Precipitation Events in a Warmer Climate: Robust Versus Uncertain Changes With a Large Convection‐Permitting Model Ensemble

AbstractTaking advantage of a large ensemble of Convection Permitting‐Regional Climate Models on a pan‐Alpine domain and of an object‐oriented dedicated analysis, this study aims to investigate future changes in high‐impact fall Mediterranean Heavy Precipitation Events at high warming levels. We identify a robust multi‐model agreement for an increased frequency from central Italy to the northern Balkans combined with a substantial extension of the affected areas, for a dominant influence of the driving Global Climate Models for projecting changes in the frequency, and for an increase in intensity, area, volume and severity over the French Mediterranean. However, large quantitative uncertainties persist despite the use of convection‐permitting models, with no clear agreement in frequency changes over southeastern France and a large range of plausible changes in events' properties, including for the most intense events. Model diversity and international coordination are still needed to provide policy‐relevant climate information regarding precipitation extremes.

Hydrometeorological evaluation of two nowcasting systems for Mediterranean heavy precipitation events with operational considerations

Abstract. Heavy precipitation events and subsequent flash floods regularly affect the Mediterranean coastal regions. In these situations, forecasting rainfall and river discharges is crucial especially up to 6 h, which is a relevant lead time for emergency services in times of crisis. The present study investigates the hydrometeorological skills of two new nowcasting systems: a numerical weather model AROME-NWC and a nowcasting system blending numerical weather prediction and extrapolation of radar estimation called PIAF. Their performance is assessed for 10 past heavy precipitation events that occurred in southeastern France. Precipitation forecasts are evaluated at a 15- min time resolution and the availability times of forecasts, based on the operational Météo-France suites, are taken into account when performing the evaluation. Rainfall observations and forecasts were first compared using a point-to-point approach. Then the evaluation was conducted from an hydrological point of view, by comparing observed and forecast precipitation over watersheds affected by floods. In general, the results led to the same conclusions for both evaluations. On the very first lead times, up to 1 h 15 min and 1 h 30 min of forecast, the performance of PIAF was higher than AROME-NWC. For longer lead times (up to 3 h) their performances were generally equivalent. An assessment of river discharges simulated with the ISBA-TOP coupled system, which is dedicated to Mediterranean flash flood simulations and driven by AROME-NWC and PIAF rainfall forecasts, was also performed on two exceptional past flash flood events. The results obtained for these two events show that using AROME-NWC or PIAF rainfall forecasts is promising for flash flood forecasting in terms of peak intensity, timing, and first wave of discharge, with an anticipation of these phenomena that can reach several hours.

Correction to: Modelling Mediterranean heavy precipitation events at climate scale: an object-oriented evaluation of the CNRM-AROME convection-permitting regional climate model

Correction to: Modelling Mediterranean heavy precipitation events at climate scale: an object-oriented evaluation of the CNRM-AROME convection-permitting regional climate model

Towards kilometer-scale ocean–atmosphere–wave coupled forecast: a case study on a Mediterranean heavy precipitation event

Abstract. The western Mediterranean Sea area is frequently affected in autumn by heavy precipitation events (HPEs). These severe meteorological episodes, characterized by strong offshore low-level winds and heavy rain in a short period of time, can lead to severe flooding and wave-submersion events. This study aims to progress towards an integrated short-range forecast system via coupled modeling for a better representation of the processes at the air–sea interface. In order to identify and quantify the coupling impacts, coupled ocean–atmosphere–wave simulations were performed for a HPE that occurred between 12 and 14 October 2016 in the south of France. The experiment using the coupled AROME-NEMO-WaveWatchIII system was notably compared to atmosphere-only, coupled atmosphere–wave and ocean–atmosphere simulations. The results showed that the HPE fine-scale forecast is sensitive to both couplings: the interactive coupling with the ocean leads to significant changes in the heat and moisture supply of the HPE that intensify the convective systems, while coupling with a wave model mainly leads to changes in the low-level dynamics, affecting the location of the convergence that triggers convection over the sea. Result analysis of this first case study with the AROME-NEMO-WaveWatchIII system does not clearly show major changes in the forecasts with coupling and highlights some attention points to follow (ocean initialization notably). Nonetheless, it illustrates the higher realism and potential benefits of kilometer-scale coupled numerical weather prediction systems, in particular in the case of severe weather events over the sea and/or in coastal areas, and shows their affordability to confidently progress towards operational coupled forecasts.

The heavy precipitation event of 14–15 October 2018 in the Aude catchment: a meteorological study based on operational numerical weather prediction systems and standard and personal observations

Abstract. The case of the heavy precipitation event on 14 and 15 October 2018 which has led to severe flash flooding in the Aude watershed in south-western France is studied from a meteorological point of view using deterministic and probabilistic numerical weather prediction systems, as well as a unique combination of observations from both standard and personal weather stations. This case features typical characteristics of Mediterranean heavy precipitation events such as its classic synoptic situation and its quasi-stationary convective precipitation that regenerates continuously, as well as some peculiarities such as the presence of a former hurricane and a pre-existing cold air mass close to the ground. Mediterranean Sea surface temperature and soil moisture anomalies are briefly reviewed, as they are known to play a role in this type of hydrometeorological events. A study of rainfall forecasts shows that the event had limited predictability, in particular given the small size of the watersheds involved. It is shown that the stationarity of precipitation, whose estimation benefits from data from personal stations, is linked to the presence near the ground of a trough and a strong potential virtual temperature gradient, the stationarity of both of which is highlighted by a combination of observations from standard and personal stations. The forecast that comes closest to the rainfall observations contains the warmest, wettest, and fastest low-level jet and also simulates near the ground a trough and a marked boundary between cold air in the west and warm air in the east, both of which are stationary.

Modelling Mediterranean heavy precipitation events at climate scale: an object-oriented evaluation of the CNRM-AROME convection-permitting regional climate model

Modelling the rare but high-impact Mediterranean Heavy Precipitation Events (HPEs) at climate scale remains a largely open scientific challenge. The issue is adressed here by running a 38-year-long continuous simulation of the CNRM-AROME Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Model (CP-RCM) at a 2.5 km horizontal resolution and over a large pan-Alpine domain. First, the simulation is evaluated through a basic Eulerian statistical approach via a comparison with selected high spatial and temporal resolution observational datasets. Northwestern Mediterranean fall extreme precipitation is correctly represented by CNRM-AROME at a daily scale and even better at an hourly scale, in terms of location, intensity, frequency and interannual variability, despite an underestimation of daily and hourly highest intensities above 200 mm/day and 40 mm/h, respectively. A comparison of the CP-RCM with its forcing convection-parameterised 12.5 km Regional Climate Model (RCM) demonstrates a clear added value for the CP-RCM, confirming previous studies. Secondly, an object-oriented Lagrangian approach is proposed with the implementation of a precipitating system detection and tracking algorithm, applied to the model and the reference COMEPHORE precipitation dataset for twenty fall seasons. Using French Mediterranean HPEs as objects, CNRM-AROME’s ability to represent the main characteristics of fall convective systems and tracks is highlighted in terms of number, intensity, area, duration, velocity and severity. Further, the model is able to simulate long-lasting and severe extreme fall events similar to observations. However, it fails to reproduce the precipitating systems and tracks with the highest intensities (maximum intensities above 40 mm/h) well, and the model’s tendency to overestimate the cell size increases with intensity.

Characterization of the air–sea exchange mechanisms during a Mediterranean heavy precipitation event using realistic sea state modelling

Abstract. This study investigates the mechanisms acting at the air–sea interface during a heavy precipitation event that occurred between 12 and 14 October 2016 over the north-western Mediterranean area and led to large amounts of rainfall (up to 300 mm in 24 h) over the Hérault region (southern France). The study case was characterized by a very strong (>20 m s−1) easterly to south-easterly wind at low level that generated very rough seas (significant wave height of up to 6 m) along the French Riviera and the Gulf of Lion. In order to investigate the role of the waves on air–sea exchanges during such extreme events, a set of numerical experiments was designed using the Météo-France kilometre-scale AROME-France numerical weather prediction model – including the WASP (Wave-Age-dependant Stress Parametrization) sea surface turbulent flux parametrization – and the WaveWatch III wave model. Results from these sensitivity experiments in the forced or coupled modes showed that taking the waves generated by the model into account increases the surface roughness. Thus, the increase in the momentum flux induces a slowdown of the easterly low-level atmospheric flow and a displacement of the convergence line at sea. Despite strong winds and a young sea below the easterly flow, the turbulent heat fluxes upstream of the precipitating system are not significantly modified. The forecast of the heaviest precipitation is finally modified when the sea state is taken into account; notably, in terms of location, this modification is slightly larger in the forced mode than in the coupled mode, as the coupling interactively balances the wind sea, the stress and the wind.

Numerical simulations of Mediterranean heavy precipitation events with the WRF model: A verification exercise using different approaches

An intercomparison of eight different microphysics parameterization schemes available in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and an analysis of the sensitivity of predicted precipitation to horizontal resolution are presented in this paper. Three different case studies, corresponding to severe rainfall events occurred over the Liguria region (Italy) between October 2010 and November 2011, have been considered. In all the selected cases, the formation of a quasi-stationary mesoscale convective system over the Ligurian Sea interacting with local dynamical effects (orographically-induced low-level wind and temperature gradients) played a crucial role in the generation of severe precipitations. The data set used to evaluate model performances has been extracted from the official regional network, composed of about 150 professional WMO-compliant stations. Two different strategies have been exploited to assess the model skill in forecasting precipitation: a traditional approach, where forecasts and observations are matched on a point-by-point basis, and an object-based method where model success is based on the correct localization and intensity of precipitation patterns. This last method overcomes the known fictitious models performance degradation for increasing spatial resolution. As remarkable results of this analysis, a clear role of horizontal resolution on the model performances accompanied by the identification of a set of best-performing parameterization schemes emerge. The outcomes presented here offer important suggestions for operational weather prediction systems under potentially dangerous heavy precipitations triggered by the mechanisms discussed throughout the paper.

How important is intensified evaporation for Mediterranean precipitation extremes?

AbstractThe moisture sources for heavy precipitation events in the northwestern Mediterranean are investigated with a Lagrangian moisture source diagnostic, which is based on the analysis of moisture changes during 6 h time intervals along backward trajectories, originating from the location of the heavy precipitation events. We consider the 50 strongest events in each season in the region 0–15°E, 42–46°N during the years 1989–2009. The results of the moisture source diagnostic indicate that during precipitation extremes the Mediterranean Sea surface is only one of several source regions in all seasons, and typically matched by moisture from the North Atlantic in autumn and winter and land evapotranspiration in summer. The event‐to‐event variability is large. Individual events can be dominated by land evapotranspiration, moisture transport from the North Atlantic, or an export of moisture from the tropics. The time of maximum moisture uptake varies between a few hours to more than a week before the precipitation event. The results from the moisture source analysis are used for investigating whether intense surface evaporation occurs prior to heavy precipitation. Surface evaporation anomalies at the moisture sources are positive over the North Atlantic and the European and African land surface, whereas no signal is present over the Mediterranean. Therefore, for the Mediterranean moisture contribution, convergence from the background moisture reservoir is essential, whereas for the remote sources anomalously intense surface evaporation is required to foster the moisture supply for Mediterranean heavy precipitation events.

Perturbing the potential vorticity field in mesoscale forecasts of two Mediterranean heavy precipitation events

ABSTRACTIn order to improve the quality of the Mediterranean high-impact weather (HIW) numerical predictions, this study proposes to modify the potential vorticity (PV) field of the model initial state, taking advantage of information provided by the water vapour (WV) channel of the METEOSAT-7 satellite. The implemented PV field modifications aim to reduce the mismatch between the upper-level PV features and the WV brightness temperatures guided by the known relation between these two fields (PV-WV technique). The PV-WV technique effectiveness is evaluated on two HIW events, and is also compared with two additional PV modification techniques from an earlier study. The chosen episodes occurred on 9–10 June 2000 and 9–10 October 2002 and produced heavy precipitation over both Spain and France. The main difference between these two episodes is found in the driving mechanism, a mesoscale cyclone for the June 2000 event and a larger low-pressure centre for the October 2002 case. The two additional PV modification techniques introduce perturbations along the zones highlighted by the MM5 adjoint model calculated sensitivity zones (PV-adjoint) and along the three-dimensional PV structure presenting the locally most intense values and gradients of the field (PV-gradient). A close examination of both case studies of the forecast rainfall fields and several objective verification indices show that the PV-WV technique performance exceeds the control (or non-perturbed) forecast skill while remaining inside the distribution obtained by both PV-gradient and PV-adjoint techniques. This PV-WV technique could be used to increase the ensemble spread introducing higher amplitude modifications. Thus, a more skilled ensemble prediction system could be built by taking advantage of the subjectivity inherent to this method (manual perturbations) and also of the uncertainty present in the initial state.

Uncertainty of lateral boundary conditions in a convection-permitting ensemble: a strategy of selection for Mediterranean heavy precipitation events

Abstract. This study examines the impact of lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) in convection-permitting (C-P) ensemble simulations with the AROME model driven by the ARPEGE EPS (PEARP). Particular attention is paid to two torrential rainfall episodes, observed on 15–16 June 2010 (the Var case) and 7–8 September 2010 (the Gard-Ardèche case) over the southeastern part of France. Regarding the substantial computing time for convection-permitting models, a methodology of selection of a few LBCs, dedicated for C-P ensemble simulations of heavy precipitation events is evaluated. Several sensitivity experiments are carried out to evaluate the skill of the AROME ensembles, using different approaches for selection of the driving PEARP members. The convective-scale predictability of the Var case is very low and it is driven primarily by a surface low over the Gulf of Lyon inducing a strong convergent low-level flow, and accordingly advecting strong moisture supply from the Mediterranean Sea toward the flooded area. The Gard-Ardèche case is better handled in ensemble simulations as a surface cold front moved slowly eastwards while increasing the low-level water vapour ahead is well reproduced. The selection based on a cluster analysis of the PEARP members generally better performs against a random selection. The consideration of relevant meteorological parameters for the convective events of interest (i.e. geopotential height at 500 hPa and horizontal moisture flux at 925 hPa) refined the cluster analysis. It also helps in better capturing the forecast uncertainty variability which is spatially more localized at the "high-impact region" due to the selection of more mesoscale parameters.

Idealized numerical simulations of quasi‐stationary convective systems over the Northwestern Mediterranean complex terrain

AbstractNorthwestern Mediterranean coastal regions are frequently affected by torrential rainfall associated with quasi‐stationary mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). The present work examines how the characteristics of a conditionally unstable flow impinging on the coastal complex terrain of the Northwestern Mediterranean can affect the location and intensity of quasi‐stationary MCSs. The study is based on idealized simulations, but including the major ingredients of Northwestern Mediterranean heavy precipitation events: a moist conditionally unstable marine flow of about 100 km width facing the true terrain, composed of the Massif Central surrounded by the Alps and the Pyrenees.We find that MCSs are located upstream of the mountain range with a slow flow, whereas with a rapid flow the heaviest precipitation is over the Massif Central slopes. In a similar way, when the lateral environment is drier the heaviest precipitation is located upstream whereas a humid environment favours precipitation over the slopes. The dominant lifting mechanism is strongly related to the location of the system: (1) direct orographic triggering for systems over mountain slopes and (2) cold‐pool triggering for upstream systems. In addition, the neighbouring mountains interplay through deflection of the flow and induced low‐level convergence favoured by slow or dry lateral environments and through cold‐pool blocking within valleys. Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society

Uncertainties in short‐term forecasts of a Mediterranean heavy precipitation event: Assessment with satellite observations

The uncertainties in short‐term forecasts of a 5 day episode of heavy precipitation in southeastern France were investigated. The episode took place from 19 to 23 November 2007 resulting in 400 mm of precipitation locally and was fairly typical of events known as “Cevenoles” that frequently affect the region. Several sets of 24 h meso‐NH simulations were constructed that differed in their initial and boundary conditions. Comparison with rain gauges showed that simulations initialized from large‐scale operational analyses failed to capture the intensity of precipitation associated with convective events and overestimated the amount of precipitation when the conditions were not convective. In contrast, simulations starting from the mesoscale analysis of the French operational mesoscale model ALADIN were more successful in forecasting the amount and location of the precipitation. Satellite observations revealed that this was due to a better prediction of the intensity of the surface wind over the sea during the stratiform regime and a more timely onset of convection over the sea related to a better prediction of the quantity of precipitable water. This study shows the benefits of using satellite observations to verify precipitation forecasts over the sea.

Effects of the air–sea coupling time frequency on the ocean response during Mediterranean intense events

The near-sea surface meteorological conditions associated with the Mediterranean heavy precipitation events constitute, on a short time scale, a strong forcing on the ocean mixed layer. This study addresses the question of the optimal time frequency of the atmospheric forcing to drive an ocean model in order to make it able to capture the fine scale ocean mixed layer response to severe meteorological conditions. The coupling time frequency should allow the ocean model to reproduce the formation of internal low-salty boundary layers due to sudden input of intense precipitation, as well as the cooling and deepening of the ocean mixed layer through large latent heat fluxes and stress under the intense low-level jet associated with these events. In this study, the one-dimensional ocean model is driven by 2.4-km atmospheric simulated fields on a case of Mediterranean heavy precipitation, varying the time resolution of the atmospheric forcing. The results show that using a finer temporal resolution than 1 h for the atmospheric forcing is not necessary, but a coarser temporal resolution (3 or 6 h) modifies the event course and intensity perceived by the ocean. Consequently, when using a too coarse temporal resolution forcing, typically 6 h, the ocean model fails to reproduce the ocean mixed layer fine scale response under the heavy rainfall pulses and the strong wind gusts.

Mesoscale GPS Zenith Delay assimilation during a Mediterranean heavy precipitation event

Abstract. The impact of assimilating Zenith Total delay (ZTD) observations from a mesoscale ground-based GPS network over Western Europe is evaluated for the heavy precipitation event of 5–9 September 2005 over Southern France. The ZTD assimilation is performed using a three dimensional variational data assimilation system at the 9.5-km horizontal resolution. Then using as initial conditions the 3DVAR analyses with and without assimilation of ZTD, we perform 2.4-km non-hydrostatic MESO-NH simulations. The results of the fine-scale simulations indicate that assimilation of ZTD help to improve the forecast of the tropospheric water vapour content and the quantitative precipitation forecast. We have also assessed through single observation experiments the influence of the formulation of the observation operator which is used to compute the model equivalent ZTD.