Media Speculation Research Articles

The Militarisation of Japan and the Ethics of Survival Strategies

Abstract Recently there has been media speculation about Japan’s move away from pacifism towards a more active role in global conflict, focusing on the war in Ukraine. The lack of military infrastructure and research and development in Japan since World War II have also had a profound impact on a lack of preparedness for COVID 19 vaccines, as the infrastructure needed was often linked to military development. We discuss how such changes have resulted in a desire for a buildup of military development including vaccine development in Japan. These changes, should they take place, will signify a shift away from the post-war period as Japan develops a new global role.

Exploring the potential link between prostate cancer and magnetic fields

Prostate cancer is the most common solid cancer in men worldwide. Various lifestyle factors have been established as contributors to cancer risk, and prostate cancer is no exception. Elements such as advanced age, diet, obesity, smoking, alcohol consumption, circadian rhythm disruptions, Afro-Caribbean ethnicity, and sexual activity have all been linked to an increased risk of prostate cancer. Notably, famous male guitarists from bands spanning the last few decades are now entering the age demographic most closely associated with prostate cancer. It is not surprising that they may fall into the ’at-risk’ category. Media speculation has hinted at a potentially higher incidence of prostate cancer among guitarists compared to their bandmates, although no tangible correlation has been established. This speculation piqued our curiosity and prompted an exploration into potential reasons why musicians, particularly guitarists, might be at an elevated risk of developing prostate cancer. We hypothesise the electromagnetic fields generated by the electric guitar may in part explain the possible increase in prostate cancer risk among electric guitarists. This study delves into these intriguing possibilities, shedding light on an area of research that remains speculative but warrants further investigation.

The Mating Psychology of Incels (Involuntary Celibates): Misfortunes, Misperceptions, and Misrepresentations

ABSTRACT Mating represents a suite of fundamental adaptive problems for humans. Yet a community of men, called incels (involuntary celibates), forge their identity around their perceived inability to solve these problems. Many incels engage in misogynistic online hostility, and there are concerns about violence stemming from the community. Despite significant media speculation about the potential mating psychology of incels, this has yet to be formally investigated in the scientific literature. In the first formal investigation of incel mating psychology, we compared a sample (n = 151) of self-identified male incels with non-incel single males (n = 149). Findings revealed that incels have a lower sense of self-perceived mate-value and a greater external locus of control regarding their singlehood. Contrary to mainstream media narratives, incels also reported lower minimum standards for mate preferences than non-incels. Incels (and non-incel single men) significantly overestimated the importance of physical attractiveness and financial prospects to women, and underestimated the importance of intelligence, kindness, and humor. Furthermore, incels underestimated women’s overall minimum mate preference standards. Our findings suggest that incels should be targeted for interventions to challenge cognitive distortions around female mate preferences. Implications for incels’ mental health and misogynistic attitudes are discussed, as well as directions for future research.

Gendered competencies and gender composition: A human versus algorithm evaluator comparison

AbstractThe rise in AI‐based assessments in hiring contexts has led to significant media speculation regarding their role in exacerbating or mitigating employment inequities. In this study, we examined 46,214 ratings from 4947 interviews to ascertain if gender differences in ratings were related to interactions among content (stereotype‐relevant competencies), context (occupational gender composition), and rater type (human vs. algorithm). Contrary to the hypothesized effects of smaller gender differences in algorithmic scoring than with human raters, we found that both human and algorithmic ratings of men on agentic competencies were higher than those given to women. Also unexpected, the algorithmic scoring evidenced greater gender differences in communal ratings than humans (with women rated higher than men) and similar differences in non‐stereotypic competency ratings that were in the opposite direction (humans rated men higher than women, while algorithms rated women higher than men). In more female‐dominated occupations, humans tended to rate applicants as generally less competent overall relative to the algorithms, but algorithms rated men more highly in these occupations. Implications for auditing for group differences in selection contexts are discussed.

Changing Perceptions and Transforming Outcomes: L&T's Acquisition of Mindtree

On March 18, 2019, Yuvraj Mehta, head Corporate Brand Management & Communications (CBMC) at Larsen & Toubro (L&T), heard about negative media narratives against L&T, following a high-profile merger and acquisition (M&A) between the company and Mindtree. Some of the allegations against L&T were “hostile takeover” and “destruction of Mindtree's culture.” Mehta was faced with the issue of influencing all stakeholders; turning the tide and changing the narrative from hostile takeover to continuity, growth and profitability; and integrating Mindtree and its employees and culture into L&T. Compared to L&T's previous acquisitions, which were small, and other strategic initiatives, which were mostly organic, Mindtree acquisition was the largest (in value terms) in its history. It was also the most complex as Mindtree promoters aggressively resisted the acquisition, and L&T had to acquire a large number of shares through an open offer. Media speculations began in January 2019 when L&T, the engineering and construction giant, planned to acquire a majority stake in the young IT firm, Mindtree. Soon the reporting changed to aggressive media ranting. Time was at a premium. Mehta knew he would need to begin strategising almost immediately. How should he proceed? What should be his first move?

Social factors and UFO reports: was the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic associated with an increase in UFO reporting?

The ongoing SARS-Cov-2 pandemic had many drastic effects upon society beyond the illness and death it caused. Pandemic mitigation measures disrupted and altered behaviors related to social mobility, significantly increasing the time spent at home compared to the pre-pandemic period. Further, it was well documented that social anxiety and stress increased at a population level. Early in the pandemic there was speculation in the popular media that reporting of paranormal phenomena (e.g., UFOs, ghosts, etc.) increased due to factors associated with the pandemic. Past research on UFO/UAP reporting has theorized that increases are triggered by social factors, and so the pandemic provided a natural experiment to test these claims. To measure UFO reports we utilized two public databases of UFO reports for sightings in the United States, provided by the National UFO Reporting Center and the Mutual UFO Network. To estimate the impact of the pandemic we utilized two measures, one for social mobility and one for pandemic/disease severity. Google Community Mobility Reports provided a metric of social mobility for people who use Google Maps on their cellular telephone (i.e., amount of time spent at work compared to home), which we aggregated to a state level to estimate time spent at home. Second, we used new weekly SARS-CoV-2 cases and deaths, both absolute counts and per capita, which can be considered to be an indirect measure of anxiety and stress. We find that UFO reports did increase in 2020 compared to 2019 (p<0.001 for both databases); however, the level of UFO reporting had little to no association with the various pandemic-related measures, offering no support for hypothesized social factors that influence reporting. A complicating factor in UFO reporting is the start in 2019 of Starlink satellite launches. These launches include up to 60 small satellites at once, and so are very distinctive and often easily visible. As a result, many people report these as UFOs. We coded and removed these reports from the sighting databases, and the filtered data similarly have no association with the pandemic-related factors. Further, with Starlink reports removed, there was no increase in sightings in 2020 compared to 2019. Our results contribute to an understanding of large-scale factors that impact the reporting of paranormal events, especially timely given the renewed public and government focus on the UFO phenomenon today.

Media coverage and speculation about the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on suicide: a content analysis of UK news

ObjectivesSince the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, there has been much concern and speculation about rises in suicide rates, despite evidence that suicides did not in fact increase in the...

Effects of coconut oil long-term supplementation in Wistar rats during metabolic syndrome - regulation of metabolic conditions involving glucose homeostasis, inflammatory signals, and oxidative stress

This study was designed to evaluate the long-term effects of Fructose (20%) feeding in rats, simulating metabolic syndrome (MetS), and the effects of coconut oil (C.O.) supplementation when administered in a MetS context. MetS is a cluster of systemic conditions that represent an increased chance of developing cardiovascular diseases and type 2 diabetes in the future. C.O. has been the target of media speculation, and recent studies report inconsistent results. C.O. improved glucose homeostasis and reduced fat accumulation in Fructose-fed rats while decreasing the levels of triglycerides (TGs) in the liver. C.O. supplementation also increased TGs levels and fructosamine in serum during MetS, possibly due to white adipose tissue breakdown and high fructose feeding. Pro-inflammatory cytokines IL-1β and TNF-α were also increased in rats treated with Fructose and C.O. Oxidative stress marker nitrotyrosine is increased in fructose-fed animals, and C.O. treatment did not prevent this damage. No significant changes were observed in lipoperoxidation marker 4-Hydroxynonenal; however, fructose feeding increased total conjugated dienes and caused conjugated dienes to switch their conformation from cis-trans to trans-trans, which was not prevented by C.O. treatment. Potential benefits of C.O. have been reported with inconsistent results, and indeed we observed some benefits of C.O. supplementation in aiding weight loss, fat accumulation, and improving glucose homeostasis. Nonetheless, we also demonstrated that long-term C.O. supplementation could present some problematic effects with higher risk for individuals suffering MetS, including increased TGs and fructosamine levels and conformational changes in dienes.

Bespoke automated linkage to enable analysis of covid deaths by ethnicity.

In early 2020 there was intense media speculation that ethnicity and Covid-19 deaths were correlated. However, the existing method of adding ethnicity to death records resulted in low linkage rates for very recent deaths. We designed and implemented a bespoke linkage in three days enabling accurate reporting to the nation.
 We linked the 2011 England and Wales Census to death records using a range of personal identifiers. Due to time pressure, we focused on executing a single linkage method well. Deterministic linkage was chosen, using a variety of matchkeys which were tested via clerical review. To overcome the issue of addresses changing since 2011, we also linked 2020 death record residuals to the 2019 Patient Register (PR) and then made use of the 2011 PR address where it existed. This additionally provided an indication of whether unmatched death records might be attributable to migration into England and Wales post-2011.
 The prior linking method used NHS Number only. Although the overall linkage rate was approximately 90%, the rate for recent deaths (2nd March 2020 to 10th April 2020 in the first iteration of the linkage) was closer to 30% due to an administrative lag in adding NHS Numbers to death records. Our novel bespoke linkage method linked over 39,000 extra death records. Whilst this had minimal impact on the overall linkage rate, it improved the linkage rate for recent deaths to approximately 90%. This was without an impact on accuracy: clerical review demonstrated that the false positive rate was approximately 0.2%. A report was published using this data showing that the risk of death involving Covid-19 among some ethnic groups was significantly higher than others.
 Determining whether Covid-19 disproportionally affected certain ethnicities was of crucial importance in the early phase of the pandemic to enable appropriate government strategies to be developed. We delivered a bespoke linkage under an exceptional time-limit without compromising on accuracy, enabling this impactful analysis with nation-wide interest and impact.

The Race of the Century: The Battle to Break the Four-Minute Mile by Neal Bascomb

Reviewed by: The Race of the Century: The Battle to Break the Four-Minute Mile by Neal Bascomb Elizabeth Bush Bascomb, Neal The Race of the Century: The Battle to Break the Four-Minute Mile. Scholastic Focus, 2022 [256p] illus. with photographs Trade ed. ISBN 9781338628463 $18.99 E-book ed. ISBN 9781338628494 $18.99 Reviewed from digital galleys R Gr. 5-8 Bascomb returns with another successful adaptation of material previously released for an adult audience, in this case his 2004 The Perfect Mile. Three middle distance runners—Britain’s Roger Bannister, Australia’s John Landy, and America’s Wes Santee—returned from the 1952 Olympics in Helsinki without medals but with a new goal: to break the four-minute mile, a feat many runners and scientists believed to beyond human capability. Bascomb delivers a balanced account of the men’s differences in personality, motivation, training regimens, and life responsibilities— they were, after all, amateurs with day jobs. There was also the ever-roiling media speculation that accompanied them ahead of the decisive Vancouver Empire Games of 1954, where Bannister edged out Landy (both breaking the four-minute goal), and Santee was left to cover the race from the commentator’s booth. The historical “Miracle Mile” is a thrilling tale in its own right, certain to enthrall middle school track runners and fans, but Bascomb also opens a window on the evolving status of amateur sportsmen, a preview of the financial and regulatory pressures on unpaid players who are expected to play like pros while funding their own training. An author’s note, bibliography, notes, and index are included. Copyright © 2022 The Board of Trustees of the University of Illinois

Persistent, “Mysterious” Seismoacoustic Signals Reported in Oklahoma State during 2019

ABSTRACT We report on the source of seismoacoustic pulses that were observed across the state of Oklahoma (OK) during summer of 2019, and the subject of national media coverage and speculation. Seismic network data collected across four U.S. states and interviews with witnesses to the pulse’s effect on residential structures demonstrate that they were triggered by routine ammunition disposal operations conducted by McAlester Army Ammunition Plant (McAAP). During these operations, conventional explosives destroy obsolete munitions stored in pits through a controlled sequence of electronically timed shots that occur over tens of minutes. Despite noise-abatement efforts that reduce coupling of acoustic energy with air, some lower frequency, subaudible (infrasonic) sound radiates from these shots as discrete pulses. We use nine months of blast log documents, seismic network records, analyst picks, and physical modeling to demonstrate that seismic stations as far as 640 km from McAAP sample these pulses, which record seasonal patterns in stratospheric and tropospheric winds, as well as the dynamic formation of waveguides and shadow zones. Digital short-term average to long-term average detectors that we augment with dynamic thresholds and time-binning operations identify these pulses with a fair probability, when compared with visual observations. Our analyses thereby provide estimates of observation rates for both partial and full sequences of these pulses, as well as single shots. We suggest that disposal operations can exploit existing, composite seismic networks to predict where residents are likely to witness blasting. Crucially, our data also show that dense seismic networks can record multiscale atmospheric processes in the absence of infrasound arrays.

Where Is Presidential Power? Measuring Presidential Discretion Using Experts

AbstractPresidents' unilateral sway over policy is of global concern to scholars, practitioners and the general public. While pending actions provoke media speculation about how much authority presidents have to change policy without legislatures, scholarship has yet to systematically measure presidential discretion across areas of public policy. This study surveys an interdisciplinary panel of scholars, using discrete choice experiments to estimate the latent level of discretion that US presidents have in fifty-four policy areas. Consistent with models of delegation and unilateralism, these measures confirm that presidents have more discretion in foreign affairs, and that discretion promotes executive action. This approach presents the opportunity to examine differences in presidential discretion and public perceptions of presidential power, and can be applied beyond the US case.

The 2020 elephant die-off in Botswana.

The cause of deaths of 350 elephants in 2020 in a relatively small unprotected area of northern Botswana is unknown, and may never be known. Media speculations about it ignore ecological realities. Worse, they make conjectures that can be detrimental to wildlife and sometimes discredit conservation incentives. A broader understanding of the ecological and conservation issues speaks to elephant management across the Kavango–Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area that extends across Botswana, Namibia, Angola, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. Our communication addresses these. Malicious poisoning and poaching are unlikely to have played a role. Other species were unaffected, and elephant carcases had their tusks intact. Restriction of freshwater supplies that force elephants to use pans as a water source possibly polluted by blue-green algae blooms is a possible cause, but as yet not supported by evidence. No other species were involved. A contagious disease is the more probable one. Fences and a deep channel of water confine these elephants’ dispersal. These factors explain the elephants’ relatively high population growth rate despite a spell of increased poaching during 2014–2018. While the deaths represent only ~2% of the area’s elephants, the additive effects of poaching and stress induced by people protecting their crops cause alarm. Confinement and relatively high densities probably explain why the die-off occurred only here. It suggests a re-alignment or removal of fences that restrict elephant movements and limits year-round access to freshwater.

Middle East Respiratory Syndrome-Corona Virus (MERS-CoV) associated stress among medical students at a university teaching hospital in Saudi Arabia

Background and objectivesMiddle East Respiratory Syndrome Corona Virus (MERS-CoV) outbreak in 2014 was associated with high public anxiety in the affected countries. Media speculations may have increased this psychological distress. The healthcare community was the most distressed because they were at the highest risk of infection. This study is the first to explore MERS-CoV epidemic impact on medical students’ perception and determinants of their psychological distress during this outbreak. MethodsWe randomly selected and surveyed 200 students from the College of Medicine at King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. A predesigned questionnaire was answered by participants, and the collected data were statistically analyzed. ResultsOne hundred and seventy-four (87%) responded. Female students had a significantly higher mean stress level than males (P < 0.001). Participants had a mean GAD score of 2.7 ± 3.1 and a median of 2. Perceived sufficiency of information score was the highest mean and median (17.4 ± 4.2 and 18 respectively). College and hospital announcements were the most common source of information (25.4%). One hundred and thirty-four (77%) reported minimal anxiety, thirty-two (18.4%) reported mild anxiety, 8 (4.6%) reported moderate anxiety, and none of them reported severe anxiety (score >14). The stress level (as reported on 1–10 scale) shows significant correlation with Generalized Anxiety Disorder (GAD-7) score. We found in this study that significant predictors in our model, in terms of more significant to the least, were: an increased self-report on hygienic habits, self-reported social avoidance, the generalized anxiety score and finally being female gander while other variables including numbers of resources access, agreeing with public fear and knowledge score on MERS-CoV all were found to be non-significant. However, the number of accessed resources, as per students, has borderline significant correlation with higher self-reported anxiety from MERS-CoV. ConclusionsMedical students’ psychological needs during the MERS-CoV outbreak should be addressed appropriately. Our results highlight the need to establish psychological support programs for medical students during an infectious disease outbreak.

‘Que será, será!’: creative analytical practice within the critical sports event tourism discourse

Sometimes it is easier to not think too long or hard about the future, and to just accept that ‘what will be, will be’ (that the future is pre-determined or out of our control). My paper invites you to consider the application of socially-constructed creative analytical practice (CAP) within the production and consumption of critical sports event tourism discourse. In January 2017, following months of media speculation about the future of several major tourism-generating sports events, 20 experienced event professionals located across multiple time zones were asked to respond to a piece of thought-provoking narrative foresight. The scenario offered several reasons as to why Auckland, New Zealand, could submit a bid to host the 2032 Summer Olympic Games. The consensus amongst the respondents was that the dream would never become a reality, but a number of alternative options were suggested offering some meaningful insight into the minds and mindset of those employed to deliver major sports event experiences. Having scripted a piece of creative non-fiction, I seek to temporarily transport you into the middle of an ongoing conversation occurring all over the globe around the long-term future of the world’s biggest multi-sports events. My goal is to mix hindsight, insight and foresight. I hope to offer something evocative, provocative and, most of all, informative. The story concludes with a new piece of narrative foresight for you all to consider.

Predicting the future of brain-computer interface technologies: the risky business of irresponsible speculation in news media

Discussion of brain-computer interfaces (BCIs) in news media is increasing. We use FACTIVA to review content of English-speaking news media portrayal of BCIs, between 01 January 2000 and 31 December 2017. Out of 3866 articles, we found 70.6% of this sample (n = 2729) discussed BCIs in a future-focused and speculative manner; 51.6% (n = 1996) depict BCIs positively, and 25.3% (n = 977) with overly positive narratives. By comparison, we observed only 2.7% discussing ethical issues explicitly (n = 106) and 12.7% of articles discussing risks associated with BCIs (n = 489). A one-way ANOVA analysis yielded no statistical difference between populations of articles depicting BCIs positively, speculatively, and negligently (neglecting ethics and risk) on a significance standard of p < 0.05, suggesting that if an article depicts the technology positively, it will also be speculative and neglect risk analysis. Given news media is identified as having significant impact on influencing public perception and acceptance of medical technologies, we hypothesize that positively biased narratives surrounding BCIs, which make speculative promises about their uses while failing to address risks and ethical issues, can create serious problems related to informed consent, among other things. We argue it is imperative for scientists to accurately represent the benefits and limitations of their research, and for the news media to balance its discussion of BCIs, to make it more likely that the public is aware and considerate of BCI-associated risks – a goal which may be complicated by increasingly frequent press coverage of private BCI projects.

Preparing for the unknown… unknowns: ‘doomsday’ prepping and disaster risk anxiety in the United States

This article examines the collapse-based thinking energising ‘doomsday’ prepping: a growing American phenomenon centred on storing food, water and weapons for the purpose of surviving disasters. Existing understandings of prepping indicate that its practitioners are driven to prepare by peculiar and delusional certainty that apocalyptic collapse will occur in the near future. This view, however, has not yet been tested by empirical research. This article draws on ethnography with 39 preppers in 18 American states to present a new understanding of this phenomenon, as it shows prepping consistently being practiced in the absence of both apocalyptic predictions and certainty regarding the future occurrence of disaster. Demonstrating that preppers’ activities are undergirded by precautionary projections around numerous non-apocalyptic ‘threats’, the article argues that prepping principally responds to uncertain anxieties around disaster risks. Moreover, it establishes that these imprecise anxieties are regularly influenced by preppers’ consumption of disaster-based speculation in mainstream news media – showing that their concerns tend to emerge in response to numerous disaster risks that are widely reported and recognised in wider American culture, rather than marginal conceptions of ‘threats’. The article, therefore, contends that, rather than being a marginal apocalyptic practice, prepping is a phenomenon with clear, previously unacknowledged links to broader risk communications and concerns in the twenty-first century United States – one that must be understood as a reflection of the broader resonance of disaster-based speculation and uncertainty in this cultural context.

Geochemistry of sediments of the Al-Batin alluvial fan, Southern Iraq

The Al-Batin alluvial fan covers a broad area of southern Iraq. It was the main battlefield of two devastating wars in 1991 and 2003, during which huge amounts of depleted uranium (DU) were used. This study aims to assess the geochemistry of this fan sediment including the potential effects of the DU used. Sixty-three samples were collected from sediments including three samples from sediments under tanks attacked by DU ammunition. Major elements were measured by XRF (fusion bead method), whereas ICP-MS was used to measure the trace elements. The results suggest that the most dominant major minerals are in the order of: quartz > secondary gypsum > calcite > feldspar, clay minerals > iron oxide, and show abnormal concentrations of Sr, Cr, Ni, and V. This study also determined an area with high concentration of U in the north east part of the fan. Statistical analysis and spatial distribution of important elements suggests that two major factors affect mineral formation. The first factor reflects the influence of minerals in the source area of the sediments (Arabian Shield): quartz, carbonate, clay minerals, feldspars, as well as iron oxides and elevated concentrations of V, Ni, and Cr. The second factor points at authigenic formation of secondary gypsum and celestite and elevated U concentration under the control of a hot arid climate and the specific groundwater situation. However, the origin of the sediments is geogenic, while the anthropogenic impact seems to be minor. Spatial distribution of U and the 235/238U ratio did not show any peaks in the places where tanks have been destroyed. This is contrary to media speculations and some scientific reports about the permanent risks of DU in the area, which creates public concern about the potential risk of living in this area.

Don’t Look Now

Don’t Look Now

Merger Speculation in Financial Media: The Valuation of Investigative Reporting

ABSTRACTThe authors study abnormal returns and volume in the days surrounding takeover speculation by financial media. Significantly positive price and volume responses 2 days after publication are observed. While most of this effect dissipates shortly thereafter, some excess returns remain impounded into the stock price. A study of the ex post takeover probabilities suggests that a positive response is justified, as takeover probabilities for such firms subsequently increase. This evidence is consistent with the idea that financial media speculation can facilitate the release of useful private information to shareholders. However, significantly positive excess returns and volume in the few days before publication also suggests that certain shareholders may benefit disproportionately.