Measurement Of Gross Domestic Product Research Articles

The Global Health Crisis Affected the Economy of an Emerging Metropolis: The Case of Cagayan de Oro City, Philippines

This paper estimates the impact of government strategies that aimed at containing the spread of COVID-19, to the local economic activities of Cagayan de Oro - a highly urbanized city in the Northern region of Mindanao. In the absence of city-level measure for Gross Domestic Product (GDP), gross sales among the 20,626 registered businesses are utilized as an alternative determinant. GDP measures the amount of output produced of a certain area within a specific time-period. Cagayan de Oro is predominantly food sector dependent contributing to almost 80% of its local economic activities. BPO, however, is the fastest growing sector but the food industry is near second. The gross sales of BPO, Tourism and Construction recorded the highest increase for the past ten-years, which indicates that these sectors are massively growing within the city. Using a simple moving-average equation from the business registration data of the City Finance Office from 2010-2019, this paper discovers that the friction created to slow down economic activities cost the city P131, 704,672.26 of foregone sales per week. The estimated impact of a week-long lockdown in the food sector amounts to P645,296,177.66 or a per capita loss of income of P2,428.95. In other words, the impact of lockdown to one food company is around P2,000. Per-capita cost is bigger among medical (P6,631.40) and construction (P7,747.14) firms considering lumpy inputs and higher set-up costs. A one-week lockdown leads to a P104,840,708.03 and P84,954,117.49 of foregone sales in the medical and construction sectors, respectively. This paper also locates the business concentration landscape and potential of Cagayan de Oro City among its 80 barangays and calculates the estimated revenue loss of each sector located among these barangays.

Role of GDP in the Sustainable Growth Era

While there is a correlation between economic growth and the increase in living standards, economic theory is evident in the purpose of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measurement. GDP measures only the production capacity and economic growth, not the nation’s development, as often claimed by policymakers. Furthermore, as several studies show, by focusing on economic growth and neglecting the other two crucial systems, the ecosystem, and the social system, we will not be able to achieve economic growth in the future. Since the GDP was developed in 1937, it has faced criticism not only for its limitation related to its construction. Also, the concept of economic growth is currently being challenged and being replaced by the pursuit of sustainable development. Therefore, the role of GDP, as an economic growth indicator, in our economy needs to be clarified and re-assessed. The main aim of this paper is to investigate the usefulness of the GDP in the era of sustainable development. To achieve this, we investigated the historical development of various measures of economic growth, as well as the historical development of the GDP as an economic growth metric. Furthermore, we argue that the future of GDP should be in the multi-dimensional indicators, which are used to measure the sustainable development of a country, as opposed to a self-standing single-dimensional measure of economic growth. As a case study, we also construct two measures, based on Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) using the free online software ‘SuperDecisions: our Simple three-dimensional index of the nation’s growth and the enhanced holistic three-dimensional index – Holistic Nation’s Growth Index. Using the AHP method, we showcase the difference between the countries’ rankings if we consider only economic growth and if we focus on the country’s development more holistically. Our comparative study reveals that it is not enough to look only at three main systems, the economic, social, and ecosystem while assessing the countries’ development. It is necessary to also investigate and try to capture the relationships between those three main systems.

Excess Deaths and Excess Covid Booster Vaccine Doses – are they related?

This paper features an analysis of Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) country level data generated by the COVID-19 pandemic as revealed in data related to booster vaccinations, excess deaths, populations, infections, recovered cases, and tests, for a sample of 38 countries, plus measures of their policy responsiveness and relative preparedness, including various other indicators of trust, stringency and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita. The paper uses OECD weekly data on excess deaths. The data on COVID-19 vaccine boosters administered was obtained from ourworldindata.org, the assessment includes measures of GDP per capita, and indices of country specific trust levels, the cumulative data set is taken from the Worldometer data source. The Global Health Security (GHS) Index and Oxford Stringency Index (STR) are used as policy benchmarks. Other indicators used include GDP/capita, Trust, and Personal Trust Indices from the OECD. Cross sectional regression analyses suggest that COVID-19 booster vaccines explain between 69 and 79 per cent of the variation in excess deaths in OECD countries as captured by excess deaths in the first week or averaged across the first three months of 2023. An adaptive lasso technique was used to screen the explanatory variables in multivariate regression analysis. This analysis suggested the addition of either the GHS or Stringency indexes, plus a version of the Trust Indices, but none of these added much to the explanatory power of the regressions which were dominated by the contribution of the measure of vaccine boosters. The results suggest a strong association between excess deaths and booster vaccinations across this sample of OECD countries.

The Effects of Tax Changes on Economic Activity: A Narrative Approach to Frequent Anticipations

Abstract This paper studies the effects of anticipations of tax changes on economic activity through the release of tax news in the media in the United States. I provide a measure of anticipations by exploiting the content of television news. This information typically flows faster than standard measures of gross domestic product, thus I propose a mixed frequency dynamic factor model to estimate both the economic activity latent factor and the effects of anticipated tax shocks on it. I find that one-month-ahead anticipations of tax cuts significantly stimulate current economic activity while those of tax increases produce the opposite effect.

Recording Intellectual Property Products in the Context of Globalization

The article explores the issues of statistical accounting of intellectual property products (IPP) when performing calculations for the whole country under current conditions. The paper covers the influence of IPP accounting features on the assessment of indicators and characterizes the corresponding methodological problems. In particular, the growing role of globalization in economic activity, the specifics of accounting for licenses, the calculation of indicators of the national economy of Russia. The paper discusses the views of national accounts experts on the development of the IPPs accounting methodology. The author proposes directions for improving the analysis of the increasing role of innovations in modern conditions, including using new indicators that have not been used previously. The article analyses characteristics of multinational enterprises affecting the adequacy valuation of fixed capital accumulation and balance sheets of assets and liabilities, which ultimately define the production measure of gross domestic product (GDP). As a result of the study, the author formulated individual proposals for improving the accounting of IPP involving a wide range of ex- perts in macroeconomics, which is essential for harmonizing GDP and balance sheets reflecting cross-country flows related to goods and services, including intellectual property products and research and development amidst globalization. This article is based on documents and materials on national accounts, globalization, accounting for intellectual property products and research and development.

Does an Empirical Economic Relation Have a Life?

Does an Empirical Economic Relation Have a Life?

Where the Cuban Economy Stands in Latin America: A New Measurement of Gross Domestic Product

This article presents new measures of total and per capita gross domestic product (GDP) and productivity of the Cuban economy, comparing them with ten economies of similar size in Latin America and the Caribbean (i.e., LAC-10). The calculations show that the Cuban economy has been losing relative weight in the region. In 1970, total Cuban GDP was 5.3 times higher than the average of the LAC-10 economies; in 2011, it was only 1.5 times higher. In 2011, Cuban GDP per capita was estimated at US$5,973. Those of Uruguay and Panama were more than twice as high of Cuba, that of Costa Rica was 69 percent higher, and that of the Dominican Republic was 46 percent higher. The decapitalization of the economy accounts for most of the decline in Cuban income. Productivity has been growing as a result of the market reforms implemented since the 1990s, but these have been insufficient to reach the best-performing economies in the region. The estimations show that the gains that the Cuban Revolution has produced in terms of social progress have gone hand in hand with great loss of economic efficiency.

Digitalization of Russian Economy within the Framework of the National Innovation Policy

National innovation policy is part of socio-economic policy and is focused on improving state regulation, development and stimulation of innovation. It is implemented using economic, regulatory and other mechanisms of state support. Digital economy affects the growth of the country's economy and the measurement of gross domestic product, productivity and sustainability of economic entities in all financial spheres.
 The purpose of the article is to analyze the national innovation policy in the regulatory aspect, as well as to analyze the state of development of science and innovation in the Russian Federation. In the process of research, the main method employed was a comparative analysis method, which allowed to achieve the purpose by means of a comprehensive research of the identified issue. To achieve the purpose, the following objectives were set: to consider the legal regulation of the innovation field in the Russian Federation; to evaluate the implemented and existing programs for the development of science and innovation in the Russian Federation. A review of legal documents allowed to conclude that they are of high importance for the development of the innovation field, since they constitute a systemic basis for the implementation of modernization processes and the qualitative improvement of the country's socio-economic development.

Dereliction, decay and the problem of de-industrialization in Britain,c. 1968–1977

AbstractDe-industrialization and the rise of the service sector have formed the basis of recent attempts to develop a new metanarrative of economic change in twentieth-century Britain. Their effects have been taken as writ through labour market statistics or aggregate measures of gross domestic product. However, by focusing on particular micro-economic spaces, a different story emerges. Using the inner areas of Liverpool as a case-study, this article shows how the city's social and economic problems were underwritten by the decline of the service sector, located around the port. By reading the effects of social and economic change through accounts of the physical environment, it demonstrates how urban decay and dereliction provided material resonance to Liverpool's economic decline. The city's landscape of urban decay and dereliction encompassed the infrastructure of everyday life – housing, roads and even trees – as well as that of economic activity, including the docks and warehouses. Taken together, this article shows how this landscape of urban decay and dereliction came to be constituted as an agent within Liverpool's continued economic decline in the 1970s rather than simply being a reflection of it.

Using massive online choice experiments to measure changes in well-being

Gross domestic product (GDP) and derived metrics such as productivity have been central to our understanding of economic progress and well-being. In principle, changes in consumer surplus provide a superior, and more direct, measure of changes in well-being, especially for digital goods. In practice, these alternatives have been difficult to quantify. We explore the potential of massive online choice experiments to measure consumer surplus. We illustrate this technique via several empirical examples which quantify the valuations of popular digital goods and categories. Our examples include incentive-compatible discrete-choice experiments where online and laboratory participants receive monetary compensation if and only if they forgo goods for predefined periods. For example, the median user needed a compensation of about $48 to forgo Facebook for 1 mo. Our overall analyses reveal that digital goods have created large gains in well-being that are not reflected in conventional measures of GDP and productivity. By periodically querying a large, representative sample of goods and services, including those which are not priced in existing markets, changes in consumer surplus and other new measures of well-being derived from these online choice experiments have the potential for providing cost-effective supplements to the existing national income and product accounts.

Is the Greek debt sustainable? Analyzing three different scenarios for the forthcoming period 2018–2022

Abstract In this paper, we attempt to estimate the development of the Greek public debt for the period 2018–2022. In order to achieve this, we analyze three different fiscal scenarios that are based on the official data available, together with our estimations that are based on a specific conceptual framework that we develop. The three scenarios are based on a different mixture of Gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates and budgetary surpluses of GDP. The analysis concludes that the numerical outcome is almost the same in all three case scenarios. However, the third scenario is the best since it leads to higher growth, GDP, and less austerity measures, and thus making public debt sustainable in the long run. The third scenario also provides the best combination of the trade-off between austerity and growth. We conclude by discussing some policy measures.

The Seeds of Divergence: The Economy of French North America, 1688 to 1760

The Seeds of Divergence: The Economy of French North America, 1688 to 1760

Regression models of dynamic of harmful emissions in the atmosphere og Ukraine

The paper deals with the analysis of the type and the degree of relationship between the harmful emissions to the atmosphere of Ukraine and indicators of the measurement of gross domestic product: GDP in current prices, GDP in constant prices, "green" GDP. The analysis of the sources structure of harmful emissions has been carried out and it has been shown that economic activity leads to the greatest contamination of the atmosphere. The rating of the industries that cause the greatest environmental damage has been developed on the basis of the Environmental Account 2015 for the protection of atmospheric air in Ukraine. The methods of correlation analysis are applied. The World Bank and State Statistics Service of Ukraine database is used. The closest correlation dependence was found out between the volumes of harmful emissions and GDP of Ukraine in constant prices 2010 in USD. The model of multiple linear regression for harmful emissions from GDP of Ukraine with the use of dummy-variables has been constructed. Two alternative simple regressions for the volume of harmful emissions have been constructed: with GDP of Ukraine in constant prices or with the "green" GDP of Ukraine. The share of described variation in the model with "green" GDP is higher.

Revisiting Economic Shocks and Coups

This article revisits the oft-cited relationship between economic shocks and coups. According to conventional wisdom, economic recessions trigger coups. However, existing empirical studies have not consistently produced supporting evidence for that relationship. This article claims that this is partly because existing studies have not differentiated transitory from permanent shocks to the economy. Two different economic shocks could have different effects on coups. Moreover, existing studies have not sufficiently addressed measurement error in gross domestic product (GDP) data. To overcome these problems, I use exogenous rainfall and temperature variation to instrument for economic growth. Instrumental estimates demonstrate, consistently across four different GDP per capita growth measures, that a decrease in GDP per capita growth rates, induced by short-run weather shocks, significantly increases the probability of a coup attempt. Conversely, noninstrumental variable estimates vary according to different GDP measures, and are close to zero, consistent with previous findings.

Patterns in coverage of maternal, newborn, and child health interventions: projections of neonatal and under-5 mortality to 2035

Urgent calls have been made for improved understanding of changes in coverage of maternal, newborn, and child health interventions, and their country-level determinants. We examined historical trends in coverage of interventions with proven effectiveness, and used them to project rates of child and neonatal mortality in 2035 in 74 Countdown to 2015 priority countries. We investigated coverage of all interventions for which evidence was available to suggest effective reductions in maternal and child mortality, for which indicators have been defined, and data have been obtained through household surveys. We reanalysed coverage data from 312 nationally-representative household surveys done between 1990 and 2011 in 69 countries, including 58 Countdown countries. We developed logistic Loess regression models for patterns of coverage change for each intervention, and used k-means cluster analysis to divide interventions into three groups with different historical patterns of coverage change. Within each intervention group, we examined performance of each country in achieving coverage gains. We constructed models that included baseline coverage, region, gross domestic product, conflict, and governance to examine country-specific annual percentage coverage change for each group of indicators. We used the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) to predict mortality rates of children younger than 5 years (henceforth, under 5) and in the neonatal period in 2035 for Countdown countries if trends in coverage continue unchanged (historical trends scenario) and if each country accelerates intervention coverage to the highest level achieved by a Countdown country with similar baseline coverage level (best performer scenario). Odds of coverage of three interventions (antimalarial treatment, skilled attendant at birth, and use of improved sanitation facilities) have decreased since 1990, with a mean annual decrease of 5·5% (SD 2·7%). Odds of coverage of four interventions--all related to the prevention of malaria--have increased rapidly, with a mean annual increase of 27·9% (7·3%). Odds of coverage of other interventions have slowly increased, with a mean annual increase of 5·3% (3·5%). Rates of coverage change varied widely across countries; we could not explain the differences by measures of gross domestic product, conflict, or governance. On the basis of LiST projections, we predicted that the number of Countdown countries with an under-5 mortality rate of fewer than 20 deaths per 1000 livebirths per year would increase from four (5%) of the 74 in 2010, to nine (12%) by 2035 under the historical trends scenario, and to 15 (20%) under the best performer scenario. The number of countries with neonatal mortality rates of fewer than 11 per 1000 livebirths per year would increase from three (4%) in 2010, to ten (14%) by 2035 under the historical trends scenario, and 67 (91%) under the best performer scenario. The number of under-5 deaths per year would decrease from an estimated 7·6 million in 2010, to 5·4 million (28% decrease) if historical trends continue, and to 2·3 million (71% decrease) under the best performer scenario. Substantial reductions in child deaths are possible, but only if intensified efforts to achieve intervention coverage are implemented successfully within each of the Countdown countries. The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Adjusting Measures of Economic Output for Health: Is the Business Cycle Countercyclical?

Many national accounts of economic output and prosperity, such as gross domestic product (GDP) or net domestic product (NDP), offer an incomplete picture by ignoring, for example, the value of leisure, home production, and the value of health. Discussed shortcomings have focused on how unobserved dimensions affect GDP levels but not their cyclicality, which affects the measurement of the business cycle. This paper proposes new measures of the business cycle that incorporate monetized changes in health of the population. In particular, we incorporate in GDP the dollar value of mortality, treating it as depreciation in human capital analogous to how NDP measures treat depreciation of physical capital. We examine the macroeconomic fluctuations in the United States and globally during the past 50 years, taking into account how depreciation in health affects the cycle. Because mortality tends to be pro-cyclical, fluctuations in standard GDP measures are offset by monetized changes in health; booms are not as valuable as traditionally measured because of increased mortality, and are not as bad because of reduced mortality. Consequently, we find that U.S. business cycle fluctuations appear milder than commonly measured and may even be reversed for the majority of recessions after accounting for the cyclicality of health. We find that adjusting for mortality reduces the measured U.S. business cycle volatility during the past 50 years by about 37% in the United States and 46% internationally. We discuss future research directions for more fully incorporating the cyclicality of unobserved health capital into standard output measurement.

Australian Real‐Time Database: An Overview and an Illustration of its Use in Business Cycle Analysis*

This article describes a newly constructed macroeconomic database for Australia including measures of gross domestic product (GDP), its components, prices and key monetary and labour market statistics over the last 50 years as published and revised in real time. Data vintages are collated from various sources and accommodate multiple definitional changes, providing a comprehensive description of the macroeconomic environment actually experienced by Australian policy‐ and decision‐makers. The database exposes the difficulties in drawing inferences and decision‐making based on macroeconomic data that is subsequently revised. Methods are described that can exploit the real‐time dataset and they are illustrated through an analysis of the Australian output gap.

A summary of ISEW and GPI studies at multiple scales and new estimates for Baltimore City, Baltimore County, and the State of Maryland

This paper (1) summarizes a number of previous Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare (ISEW) and Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI) studies at various scales; (2) estimates the GPI for Baltimore, Baltimore County, and the State of Maryland; and (3) compares these results with previous and parallel studies. GPI incorporates environmental, social, and economic information into a single metric to represent economic well-being. At all three scales, GPI was found to grow at a slower rate than the conventional economic measure of gross domestic product (GDP), while at the US national scale GPI has been relatively flat since 1975. State-level results match an independently calculated Maryland GPI, confirming that GPI methods are robust and reproducible. In addition, the State of Maryland has recently made GPI one of their official State statistics, reported annually. State-level GPI results were also compared with studies for the states of Ohio and Vermont to explore regional differences. We recommend that the GPI research community develop consensus on a standardized measurement approach and seek common ground for advancing the use of improved indicators and accounting systems in official policy settings.

We Are What We Measure

We Are What We Measure

Total public service output, inputs and productivity

In 2008, public services accounted for approximately 22 per cent of the expenditure measure of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the UK. Given the Government's announced intention to cut government spending and given that almost everyone is a potential user of public services such as the NHS or schools there is a particular concern about ‘what we are getting for our money’. One important aspect of this, though not the only aspect, is productivity: the quantity of output that is produced divided by the quantity of input used. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has published periodic assessments of the productivity performance of key public services. This article updates the experimental estimates for all public services which were produced last year (Phelps 2009).