Galactic cosmic rays and solar energetic particles (SEPs) present formidable radiation hazards [e.g., Cucinotta et al., 2010] for human and robotic operations beyond low Earth orbit (LEO). As new plans are conceived for human exploration beyond LEO, these space radiation hazards create critical needs for accurate situational awareness. A new near-real-time tool called PREDICCS (Predictions of Radiation From REleASE, EMMREM, and Data Incorporating the CRaTER, COSTEP, and Other SEP Measurements, http://prediccs.sr.unh.edu) provides the first online system for predicting and forecasting the radiation environment in near-Earth, lunar, and Martian space environments. PREDICCS integrates a host of near-real-time measurements being made by satellites currently in space with numerical models (e.g., EMMREM [Schwadron et al., 2010]) to determine radiation doses and dose equivalents that characterize biological impacts and energetic particle propagation codes that can accurately project radiation levels through the inner solar system and out to Mars. PREDICCS provides updates of the radiation environment on an hourly basis and archives the data weekly, monthly, and yearly to provide a clear historical record of the space radiation environment. The PREDICCS tool provides in-depth data to characterize how hazardous SEP events are throughout the solar cycle, provides detailed information on how often large events that have significant risk associated with them are likely to be observed, and facilitates comparison of the near-Earth and lunar radiation environments to that near Mars. As an example, Table 1 shows the lens doses (in centigrays; 1 centigray = 1 rad) and dose equivalents (in centisieverts; 1 centisievert = 1 rem) for full-sphere radiation exposure from PREDICCS over the last 12 months. The PREDICCS lens dose quantifies the energy per mass deposited in 1 gram per square centimeter of water, which is a proxy for the biological impact to the human eye. Large SEP events on 23 January 2012, on 27 March 2012, and in the summer of 2012 contributed significantly to the hazards of the space environment over this interval. We observe that the dose rate limit of 200 centigrays for the lens dose [Cucinotta et al., 2010] is exceeded for nominal spacecraft shielding. Among the satellite measurements used by PREDICCS are data from the Cosmic Ray Telescope for the Effects of Radiation (CRaTER) instrument on NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter [Spence et al., 2010]. For the SEP events of 23 January (Figure 1) and 27 March 2012, PREDICCS results are typically within 20%-30% of what CRaTER observed. These highly accurate comparisons have never before been available over such long periods of time. CRaTER not only provides validation that PREDICCS models are accurate but also directly measures the biological impacts of radiation by observing linear energy transfer spectra behind different thicknesses of tissue-equivalent plastic [Spence et al., 2010]. Accurate assessment of the biological impacts of space radiation is vital to fully characterizing the radiation hazards of the space environment. The near-real-time situational awareness provided by PREDICCs will help to enable future human space exploration endeavors, including a return to the Moon and possible missions to Mars. Nathan Schwadron is an associate professor at the University of New Hampshire and the Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans and Space. His email is n.schwadron@unh.edu.
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