Measures Of Inflation Expectations Research Articles

Evaluating Forecast Performance of Market-based Measures of Inflation Expectations in Europe

Evaluating Forecast Performance of Market-based Measures of Inflation Expectations in Europe

Mutual fund flows and government bond returns

We investigate daily flows to Israeli government bonds mutual funds, which are held primarily by retail investors. We divide the bonds into six categories: nominal/CPI-linked - short-term, intermediate-term, and long-term maturity. We find that unexpected daily net flows are contemporaneously correlated with price changes in all categories, with correlations ranging from 0.094 to 0.221 depending on the bond category. These price changes are significant, and they subsequently reverse fully or mostly within 10 trading days. The price reversal indicates that the initial price changes are due to “price pressure.” We find that these price distortions affect break-even inflation—a measure of inflation expectations. Our findings indicate that even government bonds are affected by retail price pressure.

Indirect consumer inflation expectations: Theory and evidence

Based on indirect utility theory, we ask consumers about the change in their incomes that would be required to offset expected price changes and buy the same amounts of goods and services one year ahead in a large-scale, high-frequency survey of consumers in the US and 14 other countries. Aggregating responses across consumers provides an alternative, indirect measure of inflation expectations compared with conventional, direct measures, but with theoretically lower ex-post forecast errors. The survey responses show that indirect consumer inflation expectations vary based on age, gender, individual inflation experiences, and local shocks. Exploiting rich cross-sectional variation, inflation expectations increase by slightly more in response to gasoline price changes than implied by their expenditure share.

Nonlinearities in the exchange rate pass-through: The role of inflation expectations

This paper investigates nonlinearities in the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to consumer and import prices by estimating a smooth transition regression model with different inflation expectations regimes for five inflation targeting countries (the UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Sweden) and three non-targeters (the US, the Euro-Area and Switzerland) respectively over the period January 1993–August 2021. Both market and survey measures of inflation expectations are used as the transition variable, and the nonlinear model is also assessed against a benchmark linear model. The pass-through to both consumer and import prices is found to be stronger in the nonlinear model and in some cases is close to being complete. Also, it is stronger in regime 2, i.e. when markets and consumers expect high inflation rates in the future; this suggests that anchoring inflation expectations helps to reduce the ERPT. Finally, inflation expectations appear to affect the ERPT more in inflation targeting countries.

Response Bias in Survey Measures of Expectations: Evidence from the Survey of Consumer Expectations’ Inflation Module

AbstractThe Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) infers respondents’ inflation expectations from density forecasts. Using numeracy data and tests for coherence among 117,000 respondents to the SCE, I find that density forecasts suffer non‐negligible reporting bias and selective nonresponse. A simple verbal question collected by the SCE suffers neither of these deficiencies and so has better properties to deliver an accurate snapshot of the population's inflation expectations than the headline measures of inflation expectations published by the SCE. I demonstrate how the verbal measure can be harnessed to improve the signal‐to‐noise ratio in density forecasts.

The Distributional Predictive Content of Measures of Inflation Expectations

The Distributional Predictive Content of Measures of Inflation Expectations

Expected and Realized Inflation in Historical Perspective

This paper provides historical context for the relationship between expected and realized inflation. We begin with a discussion of early theoretical thought about how inflation expectations are formed. Then, we discuss survey- and asset- based measures of inflation expectations and assess their empirical relationship with realized inflation. Expected and realized inflation are strongly correlated over long samples, but over short samples the correlations can weaken. Lastly, to better understand the subtleties of the interaction between expected and realized inflation over short-lived but important events, we provide a narrative account of the relationship during the Great Depression of the 1930s, the Great Inflation of the 1970s, the Great Recession of 2008–2009, and the recent COVID-19 pandemic. These episodes offer compelling evidence of the importance of expectations and policy regime changes in inflation dynamics.

Can we measure inflation expectations using Twitter?

Drawing on Italian tweets, we employ textual data and machine learning techniques to build new real-time measures of consumers’ inflation expectations. First, we select keywords to identify tweets related to prices and expectations thereof. Second, we build a set of daily measures of inflation expectations around the selected tweets, combining the Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) with a dictionary-based approach, using manually labeled bi-grams and tri-grams. Finally, we show that Twitter-based indicators are highly correlated with both monthly survey-based and daily market-based inflation expectations. Our new indicators anticipate consumers’ expectations, proving to be a good real-time proxy, and provide additional information beyond market-based expectations, professional forecasts, and realized inflation. The results suggest that Twitter can be a new timely source for eliciting beliefs.

Whose Inflation Expectations Best Predict Inflation?

We examine the predictive relationship between various measures of inflation expectations and future inflation. We find that the expectations of professional economists and of businesses have tended to provide more accurate predictions of future inflation than the expectations of households and of financial market participants. However, the forecasts coming from a relatively simple and popular benchmark inflation forecasting model have historically been roughly as accurate as the expectations of businesses and professional economists.

Nonlinearities and asymmetric adjustment to PPP in an exchange rate model with inflation expectations

PurposeThis paper aims to explain real exchange rate fluctuations by means of a model including both standard fundamentals and two alternative measures of inflation expectations for five inflation targeting countries (the UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Sweden) over the period January 1993–July 2019.Design/methodology/approachBoth a benchmark linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) specification are considered.FindingsThe results suggest that the nonlinear framework is more appropriate to capture the behaviour of real exchange rates given the presence of asymmetries both in the long and short run. In particular, the speed of adjustment towards the purchasing power parity (PPP) implied long-run equilibrium is three times faster in a nonlinear framework, which provides much stronger evidence in support of PPP. Moreover, inflation expectations play an important role, with survey-based ones having a more sizable effect than market-based ones.Originality/valueThe focus on linearities and the estimation of a NARDL model, which is shown to outperform the linear ARDL model both within sample and out of sample, is an important contribution to the existing literature which has rarely applied this type of framework; the choice of an appropriate econometric method also makes the policy implications of the analysis more reliable; in particular, monetary authorities should aim to achieve a high degree of credibility to manage them and thus currency fluctuations effectively; the inflation targeting framework might be especially appropriate for this purpose.

Consumer inflation views: Micro-level inconsistencies and macro-level measures

We provide evidence that inconsistent micro-level survey responses regarding inflation expectations are common in the European Commission Consumer Survey, but they distort neither the aggregate measures of inflation expectations nor the results of the analysis of expectation formation on the macro-level.

Can the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) protect the interest earnings of savers/investors? A new look at Fisher’s hypothesis

In this paper, we evaluate whether the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) has been successful at fulfilling its mandate of protecting the purchasing power of the country’s citizens. To this end, we use quarterly data covering the post-inflation targeting era of 2002:Q1 to 2019:Q4 to re-examine Fisher’s hypothesis for the South African economy by testing for stationarity in real interest rates. Our study makes three noteworthy empirical contributions. Firstly, we use survey-data measures of inflation expectations for different market participants in computing the real interest rate variable. Secondly, our inflation expectations variables are constructed in alignment with the inflation forecast horizons of 12–24 months as practiced by the SARB. Thirdly, we rely on the more powerful flexible Fourier unit root test in testing for integration properties of the real exchange rate. All-in-all, our findings highlight the Reserve Bank’s success in protecting the purchasing power of different economic agents particularly for periods subsequent to the crisis. Policy recommendations are also provided.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on business expectations

We document and evaluate how businesses are reacting to the COVID-19 crisis through August 2020. First, on net, firms see the shock (thus far) largely as a demand rather than supply shock. A greater share of firms report significant or severe disruptions to sales activity than to supply chains. We compare these measures of disruption to their expected changes in selling prices and find that, even for firms that report supply chain disruptions, they expect to lower near-term selling prices on average. We also show that firms are engaging in wage cuts and expect to trim wages further before the end of 2020. These cuts stem from firms that have been disproportionally negatively impacted by the pandemic. Second, firms (like professional forecasters) have responded to the COVID-19 pandemic by lowering their one-year-ahead inflation expectations. These responses stand in stark contrast to that of household inflation expectations (as measured by the University of Michigan or the New York Fed). Indeed, firms’ one-year-ahead inflation expectations fell precipitously (to a series low) following the onset of the pandemic, while household measures of inflation expectations jumped markedly. Third, despite the dramatic decline in firms’ near-term inflation expectations, their longer-run inflation expectations have remained relatively stable.

The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Business Expectations

We document and evaluate how businesses are reacting to the COVID-19 crisis through August 2020. First, on net, firms see the shock (thus far) largely as a demand rather than supply shock. A greater share of firms report significant or severe disruption to sales activity than to supply chains. We compare these measures of disruption to their expected changes in selling prices and find that, even for firms that report supply chain disruption, they expect to lower near-term selling prices on average. We also show that firms are engaging in wage cuts and expect to trim wages further before the end of 2020. These cuts stem from firms that have been disproportionally negatively impacted by the pandemic. Second, firms (like professional forecasters) have responded to the COVID-19 pandemic by lowering their 1-year ahead inflation expectations. These responses stand in stark contrast to that of household inflation expectations (as measured by the University of Michigan or the New York Fed). Indeed, firms' 1-year ahead inflation expectations fell precipitously (to a series low) following the onset of the pandemic, while household measures of inflation expectations jumped markedly. Third, despite the dramatic decline in firms' near-term inflation expectations, their longer-run inflation expectations remain reasonably well-anchored.

Can We Measure Inflation Expectations Using Twitter?

Using Italian data from Twitter, we employ textual data and machine learning techniques to build new real-time measures of consumers' inflation expectations. First, we select some relevant keywords to identify tweets related to prices and expectations thereof. Second, we build a set of daily measures of inflation expectations on the selected tweets combining the Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) with a dictionary-based approach, using manually labelled bi-grams and tri-grams. Finally, we show that the Twitter-based indicators are highly correlated with both monthly survey-based and daily market-based inflation expectations. Our new indicators provide additional information beyond the market-based expectations, the professional forecasts, and the realized inflation, and anticipate consumers' expectations proving to be a good real-time proxy. Results suggest that Twitter can be a new timely source to elicit beliefs.

Nonlinearities and Asymmetric Adjustment to PPP in an Exchange Rate Model with Inflation Expectations

This paper estimates a model of the real exchange rate including standard fundamentals as well as two alternative measures of inflation expectations for five inflation targeting countries (UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Sweden) over the period January 1993-July 2019. Both a benchmark linear ARDL model and a nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) specification are considered. The results suggest that the nonlinear framework is more appropriate to capture the behaviour of real exchange rates given the presence of asymmetries both in the long- and short-run. In particular, the speed of adjustment towards the PPP-implied long-run equilibrium is three times faster in a nonlinear framework, which provides much stronger evidence in support of PPP. Moreover, inflation expectations play an important role, with survey-based ones having a more sizable effect than market-based ones. Monetary authorities should aim to achieve a high degree of credibility to manage them and thus currency fluctuations effectively. The inflation targeting framework might be especially appropriate for this purpose.

Inflation Expectations in the Euro Area: Indicators, Analyses and Models Used at Banca d’Italia

This paper illustrates the tools used at Banca d’Italia (BI) to monitor the evolution of inflation expectations. The paper also surveys the analyses conducted at BI to assess how inflation expectations affect agents’ choices and the economy. The first part discusses the measures of inflation expectations derived from the prices of inflation-linked financial instruments and from the surveys of professional forecasters. The second part focuses on the measures of households’ and firms’ inflation expectations collected by BI, along with analyses presenting empirical evidence that expectations do indeed drive agents’ economic choices. The last part analyses the overall effect of exogenous changes of inflation expectations on the real economy, through the lens of the macroeconomic models used at BI.

The Effect of Retail Sentiment on Government Bonds

We investigate daily flows to Israeli mutual funds, which are held primarily by retail investors. We find that daily net flows are contemporaneously correlated with price changes of all government bond categories (nominal/CPI-linked; short-term, intermediate-term, and long-term maturity). These price changes are subsequently reversed fully or partially within three months. The price reversals indicate that the initial price changes are due to “noise”. We find that these price distortions affect break-even inflation – a popular measure of inflation expectations. Our findings indicate that even securities that are held by institutions and professional investors are affected by retail sentiment.

Inflation Expectations and Their Role in Eurosystem Forecasting

This paper summarises the findings of the Eurosystem’s Expert Group on Inflation Expectations (EGIE), which was one of the 13 work streams conducting analysis that fed into the ECB’s monetary policy strategy review. The EGIE was tasked with (i) reviewing the nature and behaviour of inflation expectations, with a focus on the degree of anchoring, and (ii) exploring the role that measures of expectations can play in forecasting inflation. While it is households’ and firms’ inflation expectations that ultimately matter in the expectations channel, data limitations have meant that in practice the focus of analysis has been on surveys of professional forecasters and on market-based indicators. Regarding the anchoring of inflation expectations, this paper considers a number of metrics: the level of inflation expectations, the responsiveness of longer-term inflation expectations to shorter-term developments, and the degree of uncertainty. Different metrics can provide conflicting signals about the scale and timing of potential unanchoring, which underscores the importance of considering all of them. Overall, however, these metrics suggest that in the period since the global financial and European debt crises, longer-term inflation expectations in the euro area have become less well anchored. Regarding the role measures of inflation expectations can play in forecasting inflation, this paper finds that they are indicative for future inflationary developments. When it comes to their predictive power, both market-based and survey-based measures are found to be more accurate than statistical benchmarks, but do not systematically outperform each other. Beyond their role as standalone forecasts, inflation expectations bring forecast gains when included in forecasting models and can also inform scenario and risk analysis in projection exercises performed using structural models. ...

Real-time price indices: Inflation spike and falling product variety during the Great Lockdown

We characterize inflation dynamics during the Great Lockdown using scanner data covering millions of transactions for fast-moving consumer goods in the United Kingdom. We show that there was a significant and widespread spike in inflation. First, aggregate month-to-month inflation was 2.4% in the first month of lockdown, a rate over 10 times higher than in preceding months. Over half of this increase stems from reduced frequency of promotions. Consumers' purchasing power was further eroded by a reduction in product variety. Second, 96% of households have experienced inflation in 2020, while in prior years around half of households experienced deflation. Third, there was inflation in most product categories, including those that experienced output falls. Only 13% of product categories experienced deflation, compared with over half in previous years. While market-based measures of inflation expectations point to disinflation or deflation, these findings indicate a risk of stagflation should not be ruled out. We hope our approach can serve as a template to facilitate rapid diagnosis of inflation risks during economic crises, leveraging scanner data and appropriate price indices in real-time.