Meaningful Predictors Research Articles

The sensitivity of innovation modes to distance: Can we go the distance?

We introduce a spatial approach to study the innovation modes of small firms in Canada. Using a sample of 4887 small firms across different metropolitan regions in Canada, we examine whether innovation modes vary in a continuous manner across space. The findings reveal that geographic distance to metropolitan regions is a meaningful predictor of small firms' innovation mode. Firms are more likely to pursue learning activities associated with the science-technology-innovation (STI) mode and the external dimension of the doing-using-interacting (DUI) mode at close distances from metropolitan regions. Whereas use of STI and external DUI modes relies on external interactions, the internal activities associated with the DUI mode remain comparatively viable for firms in less proximal locations from metropolitan areas.

영유아교사의 자아존중감 전문성 인식이, 놀이교수효능감에 미치는 영향

Objectives The purpose of this study was to analyze the impact on play teaching efficacy of early childhood teach-ers’ self-esteem and expertise awareness. Methods The survey target was one hundred twenty-nine early childhood teachers in Seoul and Gyeonggi-do. Cronbach Coefficient was calculated to test reliability of the survey questionnaires for the collected data, and Pearson’s Ratio Correlation Analysis was applied to perceive the relationship among early childhood teachers’ self-esteem, expertise awareness, and play teaching efficacy. Multiple Regression Analysis implemented to see the impact on play teaching efficacy of early childhood teachers’ self-esteem and expertise awareness. Results First, there was significant static correlation in between early childhood teachers’ self-esteem and ex-pertise awareness. Second, only the teachers’ expertise awareness showed as the meaningful static predictor in the impact on play teaching efficacy of early childhood teachers’ self-esteem and expertise awareness. These re-sults mean that the play teaching efficacy is proportional to the level of expertise awareness. Upon analyzing sub-factors, the self-esteem and expertise awareness, and the only expertise awareness are presented as the significant predictors of the play teaching efficacy and the expectation about play teaching result respectively. Conclusions This study would provide a basic data to develop the program for enhancing early childhood teachers’ play teaching efficacy.

Factors Influencing STM Teachers' Acceptance of Mobile Learning in South-West Nigeria

Science, Technology, and Mathematics (STM) education in Nigeria faces numerous challenges, including declining student performance, reduced enrolment rates, and limited integration of technology into teaching practices. Nevertheless, former investigations have proven the effectiveness of mobile learning (m-learning) in mitigating the difficulties encountered in STM education. Notwithstanding the paybacks accrue to m-learning STM teaching space, its espousal and implementations are still lower than the projected rates. The reception of m-learning is a function of the disposition of its handlers. While many studies focused on students’ reception of m-learning, very few studies have examined STM teachers’ reception of m-learning with little or no studies conducted in Nigeria. With the Technology Acceptance Model, this study examined the determinants of STM teachers’ behavioural intention (BI) to use m-learning. 280 participants were selected through purposive sampling technique from 60 senior secondary schools in south-west Nigeria and this constituted the sample of the study. A quantitative approach within the blueprint of descriptive survey design of a correlational type was implemented and numerical data collected with a valid and reliable questionnaire were analysed at 5% level of significance using multiple regression analysis and Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient. The study outcomes showed that 85.2% of the variance in STM teachers’ behavioural intention (BI) to use m-learning was accounted for by the joint of perceived attitude (ATT), perceived ease of use (PEOU), perceived usefulness (PU), perceived resources (PR) and perceived social influence (PSI) with a significant F(5, 274)= 811.348. There was a significantly positive and meaningful relationship between the STM teachers’ BI and PSI (r=.512, p<.01), PR (r=.446, p<.01), PEOU (r=.425, p<.01), ATT (r=.414, p<.01), and PU (r=.502, p<.01). PU was the best meaningful predictor of BI to use m-learning among the STM teachers (β = 1.656, t = 18.445, p=.000), followed by ATT (β = 1.246, t = 14.002, p=.000), followed by PR (β =1.112, t = 12.224, p=.000) and followed by PEOU (β = 1.086, t = 10.005, p=.000). PSI was the least predictor of BI to use m-learning among STM teachers (β = .886, t = 8.896, p=.000). The regression equation that satisfied the model is displayed by BI to use m-learningpredicted=9.62 + 2.564 PR + 3.814 PU + 2.845 ATT + 1.089 PEOU + 1.004 PSI towards m-learning. The present study did not use a mixed-methods approach so future studies could combine quantitative and qualitative data, to gain a more comprehensive understanding of mobile learning acceptance and its influencing factors. Nevertheless, this study concluded that more seminars and workshops should be conducted for STM teachers to enhance their reception of m-learning for pedagogical transactions in the classrooms in Nigeria.

Pollen as a mediator between environmental greenness during pregnancy and infancy periods and childhood persistent asthma: A nationwide retrospective birth cohort study in Japan

The association between environmental greenness and childhood asthma remains unclear. Pollen has been proposed as a potential mechanism of detrimental associations. This study aimed to elucidate the mechanisms underlying the association between environmental greenness during the pre-, peri-, and postnatal periods and childhood persistent asthma. A nationwide retrospective birth cohort study was conducted using data from the Japan Medical Data Center (JMDC). Child-mother dyads between January 2010 and January 2017 were identified, and four subcohorts were developed based on the timing of exposure to the highest greenness season. The exposure of interest was environmental greenness levels between June and September, quantified using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). The primary outcome was persistent asthma in children aged 4–5 years. Causal mediation analysis was conducted to evaluate pollen as a mediator between NDVI and asthma. In these analyses, linear and modified Poisson regression models were used to evaluate the association of NDVI with pollen levels and childhood persistent asthma. The analyses were stratified by metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas. Clinically meaningful confounders and predictors of asthma were adjusted in the statistical models. A total of 100,273 child-mother dyads were included in the entire cohort, with 24.1% of the children having persistent asthma at the ages of 4–5 years. Higher environmental greenness was associated with higher pollen levels. The modified Poisson regression models showed higher environmental greenness was associated with a slightly higher risk of persistent childhood asthma. In metropolitan areas, significant detrimental natural direct effects of NDVI were observed; however, the natural indirect effects were uncertain. A large part of the association between environmental greenness and childhood persistent asthma in metropolitan areas was attributed to mechanisms other than those involving pollen. The associations in non-metropolitan areas remain uncertain. Further studies are required to elucidate the underlying mechanisms.

Burnout and moral injuries after foreign deployment among medical personnel of the German armed forces: a pre-post study.

Given a high amount of workplace stressors, burnout syndrome, as a depression-related syndrome, is highly relevant for medical service soldiers. This study aims to examine their effects with regard to moral injuries and personal values following foreign deployment. This longitudinal study included 91 soldiers of the German Armed Forces Medical Service. Participants completed the Maslach Burnout Inventory (MBI) and the Portrait-Value-Questionnaire (PVQ) before and after a foreign deployment as well as the Moral Injury Scale (SMBE) after deployment. Analysis has been conducted using t-tests to assess potential changes in MBI and PVQ scales between pre-test - t1 (2-4 weeks before deployment) and post-test - t2 (up to 6 months after deployment). In addition, correlations were examined between moral injuries (MI) after deployment and MBI scores at t1 and t2 as well as between personal values (PVQ t1) and MBI scores at t1 and t2. The MBI subscales showed mild to moderate burnout symptoms at both pre- and post-tests, with a slight deterioration during the study period, albeit not significant. There were no significant mean differences in PVQ between measurement points. Nevertheless, PVQ self-direction and tradition at t1 correlated negatively with MBI INV at t2 (PVQ SD r = -.21, p = .043) and MBI PA at t2 (PVQ TR r = -.23, p = .027). Furthermore, the subscale PVQ power at t1 correlated positively with MBI PA at t2 (PVQ PO r = .28, p = .006), meanwhile PVQ universalism at t1 correlated positively with MBI INV at t1 (PVQ UN r = .25, p = .018). Furthermore, positive correlations were found between moral injuries at t2 (SMBE total score, SMBE_Sub1, SMBE_Sub2) and MBI subscales Emotional Exhaustion (EE; r = -.54, p = .001), Depersonalization (DP; r = .38, p = .001), and Involvement (INV; r = .30, p = .004) before and after the deployment period. No correlation was found between MI and MBI subscale Personal Accomplishment (PA). The results indicate that medical service soldiers exhibit mild to moderate burnout symptoms even before deployment. Significant associations between moral injuries and burnout were found in 3 out of 4 MBI subscales (EE, DP, INV). There was a significant association with a stronger moral injury and higher burnout levels, persisting both before and after the study period. Furthermore, our results suggest that personal value orientations might be meaningful predictors of burnout. Hence, causal questions regarding general work stress among medical service soldiers should be further explored in more detailed studies. Further research could lay the foundation for future approaches in psychotherapy as well as primary and secondary prevention in this field.

Course and Prediction of Dissociation in Patients with Borderline Personality Disorder and Personality-Disordered Comparison Subjects: A 24-Year Follow-Up Study

ABSTRACT The first purpose of this study was to determine the course of dissociation among patients with borderline personality disorder (BPD) and personality-disordered comparison subjects (OPD) over 24 years of prospective follow-up. The second purpose was to determine clinically meaningful predictors of dissociation among patients with BPD. The Dissociative Experiences Scale (DES) was administered to 290 patients with BPD and 72 personality-disordered comparison subjects at baseline, and then once every two years over 24 years of prospective follow-up. Baseline predictors were assessed with the Revised Childhood Experiences Questionnaire (CEQ-R), the SCID-I, and the Shipley Institute of Living Scale. Time-varying predictors were assessed at baseline and every subsequent two years by means of the Abuse History Interview (AHI). Patients with BPD had higher baseline dissociation scores than personality-disordered comparison subjects. Whilst dissociation decreased significantly over time for both patient groups, the BPD group showed a steeper decline. Severity of childhood sexual abuse, adult history of rape, adult history of partner violence, and IQ were multivariate predictors of dissociation among patients with BPD. Taken together, the present findings suggest that a combination of interpersonal trauma exposure and cognitive abilities may contribute to the severity of dissociation in adult patients with BPD.

Common viral infections inhibit egg laying in honey bee queens and are linked to premature supersedure

With their long lives and extreme reproductive output, social insect queens have escaped the classic trade-off between fecundity and lifespan, but evidence for a trade-off between fecundity and immunity has been inconclusive. This is in part because pathogenic effects are seldom decoupled from effects of immune induction. We conducted parallel, blind virus infection experiments in the laboratory and in the field to interrogate the idea of a reproductive immunity trade-off in honey bee (Apis mellifera) queens and to better understand how these ubiquitous stressors affect honey bee queen health. We found that queens injected with infectious virus had smaller ovaries and were less likely to recommence egg-laying than controls, while queens injected with UV-inactivated virus displayed an intermediate phenotype. In the field, heavily infected queens had smaller ovaries and infection was a meaningful predictor of whether supersedure cells were observed in the colony. Immune responses in queens receiving live virus were similar to queens receiving inactivated virus, and several of the same immune proteins were negatively associated with ovary mass in the field. This work supports the hypothesized relationship between virus infection and symptoms associated with queen failure and suggests that a reproductive-immunity trade-off is partially, but not wholly responsible for these effects.

Neighborhood-level Social Determinants of Health Burden among AYA Cancer Patients and Impact on Overall Survival.

Neighborhood socioeconomic deprivation has been linked to adverse health outcomes, yet it is unclear if neighborhood-level social determinants of health (SDOH) measures impact overall survival in adolescent and young adult (AYA) cancer patients. This study utilized a diverse cohort of AYA cancer patients (N = 10,261) seen at MD Anderson Cancer Center. Zip codes were linked to Area Deprivation Index (ADI) values, a validated neighborhood-level SDOH measure, with higher ADI representing worse SDOH. ADI was significantly worse (p < .05) for Black (61.7) and Hispanic (65.3), compared to White (51.2) patients. Analysis of ADI by cancer type showed significant differences, mainly driven by worse ADI in patients with cervical cancer (62.3) than other cancers. In multivariable models including sex, age at diagnosis, cancer diagnosis, and race/ethnicity, risk of shorter survival for people residing in neighborhoods with the least favorable ADI quartile was greater than those in the most favorable ADI quartile (HR: 1.09, 95% CI: 1.00-1.19, p = .043). AYA cancer patients with the worst ADI experienced a nearly 10% increase in risk of dying compared to those with more favorable ADI and this effect was strongest among White AYA survivors. Although the magnitude of the effect of ADI on survival was moderate, the presence of a relationship between neighborhood-level SDOH and survival among patients who received care at a tertiary cancer center suggests ADI is a meaningful predictor of survival. These findings provide intriguing evidence for potential interventions aimed at supporting AYA cancer patients from disadvantaged neighborhoods.

Intake Characteristics as Predictors of Psychotherapy Outcome in a Practice Research Network in Argentina

There are few studies exploring intake diagnostic characteristics as predictors of change in integrative naturalistic settings. The aim of this study is to explore baseline variables at the intake process and establish the predictive value of the individual trajectories of the patients. We recruited 259 patients undergoing an integrative psychotherapy network of psychotherapists from Buenos Aires, Argentina. Every therapist completed the intake form of each patient involved in the routine outcome monitoring. Thereafter step-wise regressions based on forward selection strategies were used, in order to identify meaningful baseline predictors of patients’ clinical evolution, derived from the intake process. The selected predictors were social support network, subjective distress, the initial measure of clinical distress, unemployment, sociocultural status and reactance. When including those six variables in a multilevel model, the results indicate that social support network, subjective distress, and the initial measure of clinical distress were significant predictors of the trajectories of OQ-30, whereas unemployment, sociocultural status and reactance were not significant. The results regarding social support network are in line with the literature, while results of socioeconomic status (unemployment and sociocultural level) move in an opposite direction in comparison to the available evidence. Moreover, the mental health findings (initial OQ-30 and subjective distress) confirm the contradictory body of literature produced in this domain. Finally, reactance seems to be a significant predictor in previous study in contradiction of our results. Overall, this endeavor constitutes important but preliminary evidence to enhance the production of bottom-up science within practice research networks in the global south.

Exploring the Creative Personality: Using Machine Learning to Predict Fluency and Originality in Divergent Thinking

ABSTRACT In this study, 100 self-reported personality items from the Big Five Aspects Scale, responded to by a sample of 334 undergraduate participants, were used to predict quantity (ideational fluency) and quality (originality) of ideas on a divergent thinking (DT) task. The originality of DT responses was scored through a fine-tuned version of the Generative Pre-trained Transformer (GPT) 3.5 (i.e., Ocsai), and a least absolute shrinkage selection operator (LASSO) machine learning model selected the items that were meaningful predictors of each outcome. Results revealed that the personality profiles of highly fluent and highly original individuals were characterized by a tension between seemingly opposed personality attributes. Both ideational fluency and originality were predicted by a playfully open intellectualism that nonetheless avoided more typical work (i.e. was disorderly and unindustrious). Fluency was additionally predicted by a tension between enthusiasm for social interaction and depressive symptoms associated with withdrawal. Originality was predicted by a socially dominant assertiveness that was tempered by awareness and care for others’ feelings (e.g. compassion and politeness) as well as stability (i.e. non-volatility). Taken together, these results demonstrate that the creative personality is likely to be composed of aspects of multiple dimensions of typical personality models like the Big 5, and that the highly fluent and the highly original creative personality is different in important ways.

Establishment and validation of the prediction model for postoperative delirium risk factors in older patients after total knee arthroplasty: A retrospective study.

This study aimed to establish an effective predictive model for postoperative delirium (POD) risk assessment after total knee arthroplasty (TKA) in older patients. The clinical data of 446 older patients undergoing TKA in the Orthopedics Department of our University from January to December 2022 were retrospectively analyzed, and the POD risk prediction model of older patients after TKA was established. Finally, 446 patients were included, which were divided into training group (n = 313) and verification group (n = 133). Logistic regression method was used to select meaningful predictors. The prediction model was constructed with nomographs, and the model was evaluated with correction curve and receiver operating characteristic curve. The logistic regression analysis showed that age, educational level, American Society of Anesthesiologists grade, accompaniment of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, accompaniment of cerebral stroke, postoperative hypoxemia, long operation time, and postoperative pain were independent risk factors for POD after TKA (P < .05). The nomogram prediction model established. The area under receiver operating characteristic curve of the model group and the validation group were 0.954 and 0.931, respectively. The calibration curve of the prediction model has a high consistency between the 2 groups. The occurrence of POD was associated with age, educational level, American Society of Anesthesiologists grade, accompaniment of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, accompaniment of cerebral stroke, postoperative hypoxemia, long operation time, and postoperative pain in TKA patients.

Leveraging multiple digital footprint datasets to predict racial, sex-based, and sexual-orientation bias across US states

Introduction &amp; BackgroundRacial, gender, and sexual-orientation biases are pervasive throughout society. Importantly, modern digitally oriented datasets can elucidate important societal variables and potential solutions. One contemporary theory that attempts to explain these biases is parasite-stress: an evolutionary psychology hypothesis suggesting that increased infectious diseases rates increase out-group biases. We present preliminary findings that suggest that disease rates are a meaningful geospatial predictor of multiple biases. Objectives &amp; ApproachWe explored biases using geospatial analyses throughout multiple datasets based on US participants: Project Implicit, American National Election Studies (ANES), Google Trends, and Twitter/X. We included state-based variables to compare between states and assess the most important environmental-level predictors of biases. We built generalised linear and linear mixed-effect models and general linear models. Within Project implicit (n &gt; 3,000,000) and ANES datasets (n &gt; 30,000), we assessed racial and sexual-orientation biases via explicit and implicit measures. For Google Trends and Twitter/X datasets, we assessed racial and sex-based biases via search and tweet-per-state scores. To analyse the biases, we included environmental-level variables, e.g., infectious disease rates (developed by Thornhill and Fincher in 2014), and individual-level variables, e.g., political orientation. Relevance to Digital FootprintsThese preliminary findings analyse everyday people’s online behaviour including volunteered surveys, searches and posts. We attempt to address the pressing societal issue of bias by leveraging modern datasets. Our primary goal is to aid policy makers by recommending cost-effective solutions that can improve several factors of the population’s quality of life. ResultsWe find that the most consistently significant predictor of racial bias is infectious disease rates. When leveraging Google Trends data including anti-women terminology, infectious disease rates and population density are consistent predictors of bias. Finally, we find preliminary results suggesting that increased levels of infectious diseases increases homophobic bias. Conclusions &amp; ImplicationsOverall, we find that as infectious disease rates increase in a state, the level of racial and sexist bias significantly increases. Consistent with parasite-stress theory, we argue that focusing on reducing infectious disease rates in an area can have a plethora of benefits including improving physical and mental health and reducing biases that damage society.

Genome-wide in vivo CRISPR screen identifies TGFβ3 as actionable biomarker of palbociclib resistance in triple negative breast cancer

Triple negative breast cancer (TNBC) remains exceptionally challenging to treat. While CDK4/6 inhibitors have revolutionized HR + breast cancer therapy, there is limited understanding of their efficacy in TNBC and meaningful predictors of response and resistance to these drugs remain scarce. We conducted an in vivo genome-wide CRISPR screen using palbociclib as a selection pressure in TNBC. Hits were prioritized using microarray data from a large panel of breast cancer cell lines to identify top palbociclib sensitizers. Our study defines TGFβ3 as an actionable determinant of palbociclib sensitivity that potentiates its anti-tumor effects. Mechanistically, we show that chronic palbociclib exposure depletes p21 levels, contributing to acquired resistance, and that TGFβ3 treatment can overcome this. This study defines TGFβ3 as an actionable biomarker that can be used to improve patient stratification for palbociclib treatment and exploits the synergistic interaction between CDK4/6 and TGFβ3 to propose a new combinatorial treatment for TNBC.

Prediction of net primary productivity in the middle-to-high latitudes of Eurasia based on snow and soil temperature

Net primary productivity (NPP) is the net accumulation of organic matter by vegetation through photosynthesis and serves as a key indicator for exploring vegetation responses to climate change. Considering the remote and local impacts of soil heat capacities on vegetation growth through pathways of atmospheric circulation and land–atmosphere interaction, this paper develops a statistical prediction model for NPP from April to June (AMJ) across the middle-to-high latitudes of Eurasia. The model introduces two physically meaningful predictors: the snow water equivalent (SWE) from February to March (FM) over central Europe and the FM local soil temperature (ST). The positive phase of FM SWE triggers anomalous eastward-propagating Rossby waves, leading to an anomalous low-pressure system and cooling in the middle-to-high latitudes of Eurasia. This effect persists into spring through snow feedback to the atmosphere and affects subsequent NPP changes. The ST is closely related to the AMJ temperature and precipitation. With positive ST anomalies, the AMJ temperature and precipitation exhibit an east–west dipole anomaly distribution in this region. The single-factor prediction scheme using ST as the predictor is much better than using SWE as the predictor. Independent validation results from 2009 to 2014 demonstrate that the ST scheme alone has good predictive performance for the spatial distribution and interannual variability of NPP. The predictive skills of the multi-factor prediction schemes can be improved by about 13 % if the ST predictor is included. The findings confirm that local ST is a predictor that must be included for NPP prediction.摘要净初级生产力 (NPP) 是植被通过光合作用积累机物质的净效益, 是探索植被对气候变化响应的关键指标. 考虑到陆面热力异常通过陆气相互作用和大尺度环流对植被生长的影响, 本文研制了欧亚中高纬地区4–6月NPP预测模型. 该模型引入了两个具有明确物理意义的预测因子: 欧洲中部2–3月的雪水当量 (SWE) 和2–3月局地土壤温度 (ST). SWE的正异常会触发异常东传的Rossby波, 导致下游出现位势高度负异常并引起降温. 通过雪和温度的正反馈, 这种异常低温持续到春季并使得NPP下降. ST与随后季节的温度和降水密切相关, 当ST出现正异常时, 该地区的4–6月温度和降水呈现出东西向偶极子异常分布.对比各方案的预测效果发现, ST比SWE有更好的预测能力. 2009–2014年独立后报结果显示, ST方案对NPP的空间分布和年际变率都有很好的预测效果. 交叉检验的结果显示, 多因子方案中引入ST后能提高模型13 %的预测技巧.

Cancer clinical trial participation in socioeconomically vulnerable patients: A risk model to aid in targeted interventions.

1529 Background: In patients with cancer, those with lower income are 30% less likely to participate in clinical trials. Lower income individuals face direct and indirect costs that can make participation in a clinical trial prohibitive. However, a broader evaluation of specific behavioral, information, insurance, and area-level variables that could contribute to this disparity has not been conducted. We aimed to develop and validate a model to identify socioeconomically vulnerable patients at high risk of non-participation in clinical trials. Methods: We used data from the Health Information National Trends Survey (HINTS), a national cross-sectional survey about knowledge of, attitudes toward, and use of health-related information. We analyzed HINTS survey databases that included questions about whether patients with cancer participated in a clinical trial (survey years 2014, 2017, and 2020). We examined 21 different demographic, socioeconomic, behavioral, geographic, and health information questions. We derived a risk model to predict clinical trial participation in a random set of 60% of participants using best subset selection with k-fold cross validation. The derived model was validated in the remaining 40% of participants. Logistic regression was used. Results: We examined N=1,023 participants with household income &lt;$75,000, the current median in the U.S. In the training dataset of n=614 participants, a model with 5 variables was identified. Non-Hispanic White patients and patients without a college education, with high levels of distrust, with high levels of anxiety or depression, and from non-urban areas were all at lower risk of trial participation. We summed the adverse risk factors for all individuals; a risk score with 4 levels was constructed based on distribution quartiles. In the independent validation cohort (n=409), each increase in level of adverse risk factors was associated with a 42% reduction in the odds of trial participation (OR=0.58, 95%-CI, 0.40-0.84, p=.004), indicating successful model validation. Among all individuals, trial participation rates decreased from 18.6% to 7.5% to 4.6% to 2.8%, respectively, as the number of adverse risk factors increased (in quartiles) from 0-1 to 2 to 3 to 4-5. Individuals with 4 or 5 risk factors (vs. those with 0-1 factors) were 87% less likely to participate (OR=0.13, 95% CI, 0.05-0.31, p&lt;.0001). Conclusions: We developed and validated a 5-variable risk model that identified a large set of lower income individuals at lower risk of trial participation. In a first-time observation, psychosocial variables were shown to be meaningful predictors of lower trial participation. These findings could aide in the early identification of patients who may benefit from additional support to navigate the treatment trial decision making process, in the name of more equitable participation in trials for all patients.

Unexpected bat community changes along an urban–rural gradient in the Berlin–Brandenburg metropolitan area

Urbanization gradients are increasingly used in ecological studies to discover responses of species communities to different intensities of human-induced habitat transformation. Here, we investigated patterns of bat communities against the background of different urbanization levels using a priori defined urbanization categories based on distance classes (5 km intervals) along a linear transect from the urban core of the city of Berlin westwards into the rural outskirts of the state of Brandenburg. Using linear-mixed effects models, we found that “distance class”, as a proxy for urbanization level, is a meaningful and suitable predictor of bat species richness and diversity. We observed an unexpectedly sudden increase in bat species richness and diversity and changes in species-specific activity levels relatively close to the urban center at the transition between urban and peri-urban areas. This change suggests a relevant influence of the peri-urban areas as a “buffer zone” for specific bat species not able to adapt to the heavily modified inner core of the metropolitan area. Although we could demonstrate that anthropogenic noise and artificial light have the potential to predict the variability of bat species activity along the urban–rural gradient, the actual influence on observed shifts in the bat community needs further research.

Young adults' change talk within brief motivational intervention in the emergency department and booster sessions is associated with a decrease in heavy drinking over 1 year.

Investigate the effect of change talk (CT) within successive brief motivational interventions (BMIs) as a mechanism of change for alcohol use. We conducted a secondary analysis of data from a randomized controlled trial in which 344 young adults (18-35 years old) admitted to a Swiss emergency department with alcohol intoxication received either BMI (N = 171) or brief advice (N = 173). Participants with a baseline audio-recorded BMI were included (N = 140; median age 23 [Q1-Q3: 20-27], 72.9% men). Up to three booster sessions by phone were offered at 1 week, 1 month, and 3 months. Percent CT and CT Average Strength were used as predictor variables. The outcome was the number of heavy drinking days (HDD) over the 30 days prior to research assessments at 1-, 3-, 6-, and 12-month follow-up. A latent growth curve modeling framework was first used to estimate predictor and outcome variable growth parameters (i.e., intercept and slope) over time, and then to regress HDD growth parameters on CT growth parameters. CT increased specifically from baseline to the 1-week booster session and thereafter remained stable. Higher baseline CT was associated with lower HDD at 1 month (Percent CT: b = -0.04, 95% confidence interval [-0.06, -0.01]; Average Strength: b = -0.99 [-1.67, -0.31]). An increase in CT from baseline to the 1-week booster session was related to a decrease in HDD from 1 month to 12 months (Percent CT: b = -0.08 [-0.14, -0.03]; Average Strength: b = -2.29 [-3.52, -1.07]). Both baseline CT and CT trajectory over the first week are meaningful predictors of HDD. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

A STUDY ON THE MORTALITY PROGNOSTIC VALUE OF NEUTROPHIL TO LYMPHOCYTE RATIO AT ADMISSION IN POLYTRAUMA PATIENTS

Objectives: To evaluate the mortality prognostic value of neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR) at admission in patients with polytrauma. Methods: A retrospective, descriptive study on 196 polytrauma patients diagnosed using the criterion of the Berlin Consensus 2014, treated at Military Hospital 103 from June 2020 to June 2023. Severity was assessed based on ISS scales, and NLR was calculated at admission prior to any treatment intervention. Results: Polytrauma predominantly affected males (80.1%) aged between 20 and 59, polytrauma cases were primarily attributed to traffic accidents (66.8%). The group experiencing mortality exhibited lower Glasgow scores, Revised Trauma Score (RTS) at admission, and length of hospital stay compared to the survival group. Additionally, the mortality group demonstrated a higher Injury Severity Score (ISS), lactate level, INR, and aPTT scores, all statistically significant. The NLR value at admission demonstrated predictive value for mortality in polytrauma patients, with an AUC of 0.724, a cut-off of 10.8, sensitivity of 80%, and specificity of 67.2%. Conclusion: Polytrauma predominantly affected working-age males, with traffic accidents being the primary cause. The NLR value at admission emerges as a meaningful predictor of mortality in polytrauma patients.

Prediction model for hepatitis B e antigen seroconversion in chronic hepatitis B with peginterferon-alfa treated based on a response-guided therapy strategy.

Models for predicting hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) seroconversion in patients with HBeAg-positive chronic hepatitis B (CHB) after nucleos(t)ide analog treatment are rare. To establish a simple scoring model based on a response-guided therapy (RGT) strategy for predicting HBeAg seroconversion and hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) clearance. In this study, 75 previously treated patients with HBeAg-positive CHB underwent a 52-week peginterferon-alfa (PEG-IFNα) treatment and a 24-wk follow-up. Logistic regression analysis was used to assess parameters at baseline, week 12, and week 24 to predict HBeAg seroconversion at 24 wk post-treatment. The two best predictors at each time point were used to establish a prediction model for PEG-IFNα therapy efficacy. Parameters at each time point that met the corresponding optimal cutoff thresholds were scored as 1 or 0. The two most meaningful predictors were HBsAg ≤ 1000 IU/mL and HBeAg ≤ 3 S/CO at baseline, HBsAg ≤ 600 IU/mL and HBeAg ≤ 3 S/CO at week 12, and HBsAg ≤ 300 IU/mL and HBeAg ≤ 2 S/CO at week 24. With a total score of 0 vs 2 at baseline, week 12, and week 24, the response rates were 23.8%, 15.2%, and 11.1% vs 81.8%, 80.0%, and 82.4%, respectively, and the HBsAg clearance rates were 2.4%, 3.0%, and 0.0%, vs 54.5%, 40.0%, and 41.2%, respectively. We successfully established a predictive model and diagnosis-treatment process using the RGT strategy to predict HBeAg and HBsAg seroconversion in patients with HBeAg-positive CHB undergoing PEG-IFNα therapy.

What are relevant predictors of physical activity in older adults with lower limb loss (LLL)? Results of a retrospective analysis.

People with lower limb loss (LLL) have reduced physical activity (PA). There is evidence of physical and psychosocial predictors of PA in older adults with limb loss. However, these 2 areas (physical/psychosocial) have not been evaluated in the same analysis. To describe and identify predictors of PA in individuals with LLL. Cross-sectional study. Secondary analysis of data from a multisite Canadian randomized control trial involving community-dwelling prosthetic ambulators with unilateral transtibial or transfemoral amputation (N = 72). The dependent variable was the Physical Activity Scale for the Elderly. Potential predictors were four step square test, 2-minute walk test, Short Physical Performance Battery, Life Space Assessment, walking while talking test, and Activities-specific Balance Confidence scale. Seventy-two community-dwelling lower limb prosthesis users were enrolled. The sample included 62 male participants (86%), and 58 participants (81%) had transtibial amputation. The average age of participants was 65 (8.9) years, and for 49 participants (70%), the amputation was over 24 months ago. The total mean Standard Deviation (SD) Physical Activity Scale for the Elderly score was 153.2 (88.3), with scores of 148.1 (11.4) and 184.5 (24.7) for male and female participants, respectively. Regression analysis identified Life Space Assessment (β = 1.15, p = 0.007) and Short Physical Performance Battery (β = 3.51, p = 0.043) as statistically significant predictors accounting for 25% of the variance in PA. Community mobility and physical performance are the most meaningful predictors of PA. Future research should examine additional factors (e.g., environment, motivation). Understanding the predictors for PA after LLL would improve clinical practice as clinicians would have increased knowledge to modify and improve training.