Mean Temperature Change Research Articles

Climate change is likely to favour polyvoltine and invasive insect species, leading to more damage in the mid-latitude vineyards of Neuchatel

Climate change has major impacts on viticultural ecosystems worldwide, affecting wine production. Apart from direct impacts, the increase in temperature during the development season is likely to favour insect species, including polyvoltine ones, leading potentially to more damage in the vineyards. In this study, we examined the extent to which changes in mean temperature over the development season (March through September) can potentially increase the voltinism change the phenology and influence the reproduction of pest species in the vineyard area of Neuchatel (Switzerland). We first analysed long-term daily mean temperature data from 1970 to 2022 at the meteorological station of Neuchâtel. Then we used two climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) to analyse daily mean temperature during the period 2023–2099. For both of these periods, we computed the number of growing degree days (GDDs) above 10 °C, as it is the base development temperature for many polyvoltine pest species. We then used specific bioclimatic models for two major pest species, namely the European grapevine moth (Lobesia botrana) and the American grapevine leafhopper (Scaphoideus titanus) to compare the current and future suitability of these two species to the air temperature conditions in Neuchâtel. Our results show an increase of about 425 GDDs since 1970 (+85 GDDs per decade). According to our models, values will continue to rise during the next decades, with a trend ranging from +28 GDDs per decade (RCP4.5) to +100 GDDs per decade (RCP8.5). This could lead to additional generations of polyvoltine pest species. A third annual generation can be expected in one year out of four for the European grapevine moth by the middle of the 21st century. While temperature conditions are currently moderately favourable for the American grapevine leafhopper, they are predicted to become highly favourable by the middle and the end of the century under both scenarios. These trends mean that climate change is likely to increase pest damage risks in the vineyards of Neuchatel in the future. Pest regulation will remain crucial in limiting major impacts on wine production.

The effect of seasonal heat acclimatization on cool-seeking behaviour during passive heat stress in young adults.

Seasonal heat acclimatization is known to enhance autonomic thermoeffector responses, whereas the behavioural response following seasonal heat acclimatization remains unknown. We investigated whether seasonal heat acclimatization would alter autonomic and behavioural thermoregulatory responses. Sixteen healthy participants (eight males and eight females) underwent two trials involving 50 min of lower-leg passive heating (lower-leg submersion in 42°C water) with (Fan trial) and without (No fan trial) the voluntary use of a fan in a moderate thermal environment (27°C, 50% relative humidity) across winter and summer months. In Fan trials, participants were allowed to use a fan to maintain thermal comfort, but this was not allowed in the No fan trials. Cool-seeking behaviour was initiated at a lower change in rectal temperature [mean (SD): 0.21 (0.18)°C vs. 0.11 (0.13)°C, P=0.0327] and change in mean skin temperature [2.34 (0.56)°C vs. 1.81 (0.32)°C, P<0.0001], and cooling time was longer [16.46 (5.62) vs. 20.40 (4.87) min, P=0.0224] in summer compared with winter. However, thermal perception was not modified by season during lower-leg passive heating (all P>0.0864). Furthermore, rectal temperature was higher in summer (P=0.0433), whereas mean body temperature and skin temperature were not different (all P>0.0631) between the two seasons in Fan trials. In conclusion, seasonal heat acclimatization enhanced the cool-seeking behaviour from winter to summer.

Comparative investigation of heat extraction performance in 3D self-affine rough single fractures using CO2,N2O and H2O as heat transfer fluid

The type and thermophysical properties of heat transfer fluids significantly impact the heat extraction rate of Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS). Studies based on field-scale stochastic discrete fracture network geometric models have certain limitations and uncertainties. To compare the heat extraction performance of heat transfer fluids H2O, CO2, and N2O in a core-scale (φ50 × 100 mm) rough single fracture in hot dry rock, we first constructed the fracture geometry with rock surface roughness characteristics using a fractal self-affine function, with a joint roughness coefficient (JRC) of 12.38. Then, at temperatures ranging from 37 to 300°C and a pressure of 30 MPa, we established a thermo-hydraulic (TH) coupling model based on the thermophysical parameter equations of the three heat transfer fluids. Finally, we conducted a comparative study of the changes in the outlet mean temperature and heat extraction rate after flowing through the fracture, as well as the temperature distribution on the fracture surface, under conditions of constant inlet flow velocity with varying inlet temperature and constant inlet temperature with varying inlet flow velocity. The results indicate that (1) with the increase in inlet flow velocity and temperature, the outlet mean temperature and heat extraction rate of CO2 and N2O at the fracture outlet are essentially the same and lower than those of H2O. (2) When the inlet flow velocity increases from 0.005 m/s to 0.025 m/s, the thermal convection effect from the rock matrix to the fluid in the fracture predominates, and flow velocity is the main factor affecting the heat transfer process between the fluid and the rock matrix. When the inlet temperature increases from 37°C to 57°C, the thermal conduction effect from the rock matrix to the fluid in the fracture predominates, and temperature is the main factor affecting the heat transfer process between the fluid and the rock matrix.(3)When maintaining constant inlet temperature, increasing inlet flow velocity from 0.005 m/s to 0.025 m/s results in CO2 experiencing a maximum heat extraction rate increase of 118.85 W. In contrast, N2O experiences 117.05 W, and H2O experiences 266.4 W.(4) When the inlet flow rate is constant, the maximum increase in heat extraction rate for CO2 is 15.34 W as the inlet temperature increases from 37 °C to 57 °C; for N2O, it is 13.9 W; and for H2O, it is 45.45 W.

Spatially Heterogeneous Responses of Planktonic Foraminiferal Assemblages Over 700,000 Years of Climate Change

ABSTRACTAimTo determine the degree to which assemblages of planktonic foraminifera track thermal conditions.LocationThe world's oceans.Time PeriodThe last 700,000 years of glacial–interglacial cycles.Major Taxa StudiedPlanktonic foraminifera.MethodsWe investigate assemblage dynamics in planktonic foraminifera in response to temperature changes using a global dataset of Quaternary planktonic foraminifera, together with a coupled Atmosphere–Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM) at 8000‐year resolution. We use ‘thermal deviance’ to assess assemblage responses to climate change, defined as the difference between the temperature at a given location and the bio‐indicated temperature (i.e., the abundance‐weighted average of estimated temperature optima for the species present).ResultsAssemblages generally tracked annual mean temperature changes through compositional turnover, but thermal deviances are evident under certain conditions. The coldest‐adapted species persisted in polar regions during warming but were not joined by additional immigrants, resulting in minimal assemblage turnover. The warmest‐adapted species persisted in equatorial regions during cooling with similarly minimal assemblage change. Assemblages at mid‐latitudes mostly tracked temperature cooling and warming.Main ConclusionsPlanktonic foraminiferal assemblages were generally able to track or endure temperature changes: as climate warmed or cooled, bio‐indicated temperature also became warmer or cooler, although to a variable degree. At polar sites under warming and at equatorial sites under cooling, the change in bio‐indicated temperature was less than, or even opposite to, what would be expected from estimated environmental change. Nevertheless, all studied species persisted across the study interval, regardless of thermal deviance—a result that highlights the resilience and inertia of planktonic foraminifera on an assemblage level to the last 700,000 years of climate change.

Impacts of future climate change on rice yield based on crop model simulation—A meta-analysis

Rice is one of the world's major food crops. Changes in major climatic factors such as temperature, rainfall, solar radiation and carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration have an important impact on rice growth and yield. However, many of the current studies that predict the impact of future climate change on rice yield are affected by uncertainties such as climate models, climate scenarios, model parameters and structure, and showing great differences. This study was based on the assessment results of the impact of climate change on rice in the future of 111 published literature, and comprehensively analyzed the impact and uncertainty of climate change on rice yield. This study utilized local polynomial (Loess) regression analysis to investigate the impact of changes in mean temperature, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, solar radiation, and precipitation on relative rice yield variations within a complete dataset. A linear mixed-effects model was used to quantitatively analyze the relationships between the restricted datasets. The qualitative analysis based on the entire dataset revealed that rice yields decreased with increasing average temperature. The precipitation changed between 0 and 25 %, it was conducive to the stable production of rice, and when the precipitation changed >25 %, it would cause rice yield reduction. The change of solar radiation was less than −1.15 %, the rice yield increases with the increase of solar radiation, and when the change of solar radiation exceeds −1.15 %, the rice yield decreases. Elevated CO2 concentrations and management practices could mitigate the negative effects of climate change. The results of a quantitative analysis utilizing the mixed effects model revealed that average temperature, precipitation, CO2 concentration, and adaptation methods all had a substantial impact on rice production, and elevated CO2 concentrations and management practices could exert positive influences on rice production. For every 1 °C and 1 % increase in average temperature and precipitation, rice yield decreased by 3.85 % and 0.56 %, respectively. For every 100 ppm increase in CO2 concentration, rice yield increased by 7.1 %. The variation of rice yield under different climate models, study sites and climate scenarios had significant variability. Elevated CO2 concentrations and management practices could compensate for the negative effects of climate change, benefiting rice production. This study comprehensively collected and analyzed a wide range of literature and research, which provides an in-depth understanding of the impacts of climate change on rice production and informs future research and policy development.

Use of thermographic imaging for the evaluation of erectile dysfunction and Peyronie's disease.

Thermographic imaging is a technique to measure infrared radiation to report temperature and has been used in prior research to assess sexual arousal by measuring genital temperature. We hypothesized this can be used quantitatively to assess erectile function. We conducted an observational clinical trial of this technique by performing thermographic imaging in the flaccid and erect state and compared these values with hemodynamic measurements performed by penile Doppler/duplex ultrasound (PDDU). We also hypothesized that in men with Peyronie's disease (PD), the plaque would be visible on thermographic imaging and took thermographic measurements in this area for patients with PD. Any man scheduled to undergo PDDU in our urology clinic was approached for recruitment. PDDU was performed by one of two experienced urologists. We recruited 30 men for this study. Seven of these men had PD. The change in measured temperature between flaccid and erect states correlated significantly with the peak systolic velocity r = 0.46 (p = 0.025). In the seven men with PD the mean change in temperature of the plaque was +0.9 °C versus +2.1 °C in the normal penis (p = 0.28). Thermographic imaging shows a significant correlation with objective hemodynamic measurements on PDDU.

A new scenario free procedure to determine flood peak changes in the Harz Mountains in response to climate change projections

Study areaSix catchments of different hydrological characteristics in the Harz Mountains, Germany. Study focusA new scenario free method for determining changes of flood peaks considering climate change is developed. Compared to existing methods, it accounts for heavy rainfall changes by a newly developed factor with two seasons and establishes a numerical relationship to a greater number of relevant climate predictors. For easier application, it is based on frequently available daily measurements. A functional test of the factor for heavy rainfall changes and its adjustment algorithm for the precipitation time series is performed. Using a regional AR5 ensemble, for the first time the error and the uncertainty of a new scenario free method are estimated and compared with an existing method. The new method is applied in the Harz Mountains, where the sensitivity of the region to different climate predictors is investigated. New hydrological insights for the regionThe adjusting algorithm for precipitation is able to adjust the time series while maintaining mass balance. The new method has a lower error than the reference method, with better matches of changes in the median of the climate ensemble as well as the most ensemble members. In general, the uncertainty of the seasonal results is below the climate uncertainty of the AR5 ensemble. Regarding future flood peaks, the regional catchments are most sensitive to mean precipitation changes, followed by heavy rainfall changes especially in the winter season. Mean temperature changes are of minor significance, but the catchments characteristics are important. The new method can be recommended for assessments of climate change impacts on floods in low to average mountain regions in Germany and Europe.

Combined radiation and convection in developing flow in a parallel plate channel with real gas behavior: Contrast between gas cooling and heating

Laminar thermally developing gas flow in a two-dimensional parallel plate channel with real gas radiation has been investigated numerically. Real gas spectral radiation effects are accounted for by using the Spectral Line Weighted-sum-of-gray-gases model. Gas mixtures of H2O and CO2, either alone in mixture with N2 or as a mixture of H2O and CO2 are considered. The phenomena are investigated for a range of differences between wall and inlet gas temperature, mole fraction of the radiating species, and total pressure. Predictions for the cases of gas heating and gas cooling are contrasted with results presented by the classical no-radiation case, commonly known as the Graetz solution. The impact of gas radiation on the local mean temperature, convective and radiative wall heat fluxes, and the convective, radiative, and total local Nusselt numbers are studied.The predictions reveal that the inclusion of participating gas radiation results in a much more rapid change in temperature of the gas in the channel than for the convection-only case, for both the gas heating and gas cooling cases. Further, unique differences in the heat transfer behavior for gas cooling (wall temperature below the inlet gas temperature) and gas heating (wall temperature above the inlet gas temperature) scenarios are shown. However, significant differences between the cases of heating and cooling exist. In the classical Graetz solution, for constant thermophysical properties and using appropriately nondimensionalized heat transfer parameters (e.g., Nusselt number, inverse Graetz number) the predictions for fluid heating and cooling are identical. However, the results of this study including the influence of gas radiation demonstrate that the heat transfer behavior depends heavily on whether the gas is heated or cooled. An apparent thermally fully developed condition may exist for the case of gas cooling, whereas the variation in local Nusselt number with dimensionless axial location exhibits a local minimum for the case of gas heating. Further, the case of gas heating results in a more rapid streamwise change in mean temperature in the channel than for the cooling case. The thermal physics of the developing flow for combined convective-radiative transfer with real gas effects are explored for a range of wall and gas inlet temperatures, radiating species mole fractions, and total pressures.

THE EFFECT OF WATER DOUSING ON HEAT STRAIN AND PERFORMANCE DURING ENDURANCE RUNNING IN THE HEAT

INTRODUCTION Water dousing (pouring water on the body) is an easy-to-implement cooling method while running due to the availability of water at race aid stations, and may decrease the risk of heat illness and improve performance. However, dousing has not been investigated in extended duration running (i.e., ≥10 km), a typical distance in both elite and community level events. AIMS: Assess the effect of water dousing on heat strain and performance during self-paced and fixed-intensity exercise in the heat. DESIGN: Crossover, block randomised controlled trial. METHODS 13 trained runners completed a 10 km time trial (TT) and 60 min fixed pace run (60% velocity of VO2max) in a 30°C, 47% relative humidity environment using either water dousing (DOUSE) or no dousing (CON). RESULTS 10 km TT performance was faster in DOUSE compared to CON (44:11±6:14 vs. 44:38±6:03 min:s; p=0.033). Change in core temperature (Tc) was not different between groups during the TT (+0.02±0.33°C in DOUSE; p=0.853) or fixed pace run (+0.02±0.30°C; p=0.848). Change in mean skin temperature (Tsk) was lower in DOUSE during the TT (-1.80±0.63°C; p&amp;lt;0.001) and fixed pace run (-1.38±0.78°C; p&amp;lt;0.001). Heart rate (HR) was lower for DOUSE during the fixed pace run (-3.5±5.5 bpm; p=0.041) but not during the TT (-0.2±4.2 bpm; p=0.853). Thermal sensation was lower for DOUSE during the TT (-49.3±41.9 mm; p&amp;lt;0.001) and fixed pace run (-44.7±27.6 mm; p&amp;lt;0.001). Rating of perceived exertion (RPE) was not different between groups for the TT (-0.2±0.9; p=0.390) or fixed pace run (-0.2±1.0; p=0.480). CONCLUSION Water dousing improves 10 km TT performance in the heat but does not mitigate a rise in Tc. The positive change in thermal perception (via lower skin temperature) likely drives this ergogenic effect.

Alpha-2-adrenergic agonists reduce resting energy expenditure in humans during external cooling

ABSTRACT Intravenous alpha-2-adrenergic receptor agonists reduce energy expenditure and lower the temperature when shivering begins in humans, allowing a decrease in core body temperature. Because there are few data about similar effects from oral drugs, we tested whether single oral doses of the sedative dexmedetomidine (1 µg/kg sublingual or 4 µg/kg swallowed) or the muscle relaxant tizanidine (8 mg or 16 mg), combined with surface cooling, reduce energy expenditure and core body temperature in humans. A total of 26 healthy participants completed 41 one-day laboratory studies measuring core body temperature using an ingested telemetry capsule and measuring energy expenditure using indirect calorimetry for up to 6 hours after drug ingestion. Dexmedetomidine induced a median 13% – 19% peak reduction and tizanidine induced a median 15% – 22% peak reduction in energy expenditure relative to baseline. Core body temperature decreased a median of 0.5°C – 0.6°C and 0.5°C – 0.7°C respectively. Decreases in temperature occurred after peak reductions in energy expenditure. Energy expenditure increased with a decrease in core temperature in control participants but did not occur after 4 µg/kg dexmedetomidine or 16 mg tizanidine. Plasma levels of dexmedetomidine but not tizanidine were related to mean temperature change. Decreases in heart rate, blood pressure, respiratory rate, cardiac stroke volume index, and cardiac index were associated with the change in metabolic rate after higher drug doses. We conclude that both oral dexmedetomidine and oral tizanidine reduce energy expenditure and allow decrease in core temperature in humans.

Climate warming shifts riverine macroinvertebrate communities to be more sensitive to chemical pollutants.

Freshwaters are highly threatened ecosystems that are vulnerable to chemical pollution and climate change. Freshwater taxa vary in their sensitivity to chemicals and changes in species composition can potentially affect the sensitivity of assemblages to chemical exposure. Here we explore the potential consequences of future climate change on the composition and sensitivity of freshwater macroinvertebrate assemblages to chemical stressors using the UK as a case study. Macroinvertebrate assemblages under end of century (2080-2100) and baseline (1980-2000) climate conditions were predicted for 608 UK sites for four climate scenarios corresponding to mean temperature changes of 1.28 to 3.78°C. Freshwater macroinvertebrate toxicity data were collated for 19 chemicals and the hierarchical species sensitivity distribution model was used to predict the sensitivity of untested taxa using relatedness within a Bayesian approach. All four future climate scenarios shifted assemblage compositions, increasing the prevalence of Mollusca, Crustacea and Oligochaeta species, and the insect taxa of Odonata, Chironomidae, and Baetidae species. Contrastingly, decreases were projected for Plecoptera, Ephemeroptera (except for Baetidae) and Coleoptera species. Shifts in taxonomic composition were associated with changes in the percentage of species at risk from chemical exposure. For the 3.78°C climate scenario, 76% of all assemblages became more sensitive to chemicals and for 18 of the 19 chemicals, the percentage of species at risk increased. Climate warming-induced increases in sensitivity were greatest for assemblages exposed to metals and were dependent on baseline assemblage composition, which varied spatially. Climate warming is predicted to result in changes in the use, environmental exposure and toxicity of chemicals. Here we show that, even in the absence of these climate-chemical interactions, shifts in species composition due to climate warming will increase chemical risk and that the impact of chemical pollution on freshwater macroinvertebrate biodiversity may double or quadruple by the end of the 21st century.

Reassessing the Climate Change Narrative

We note that the atmosphere has distinct tropical and extratropical regimes. The tropical regime is significantly dependent on the greenhouse effect and is characterized by temperatures that are largely horizontally homogenized. The extratropical regime is dominated by large scale unstable convective eddies that transport heat between the tropics and the poles (leaving the poles warmer than they otherwise would be) and serve to determine the temperature difference between the tropics and the poles. Changes in tropical temperature and in the tropics-to-pole temperature difference both contribute to changes in global mean temperature. It turns out that changes in global mean temperature associated with major climate change (i.e., the last glacial maximum and the warm period of the Eocene about 50 million years ago) were associated primarily with changes in the tropics-to-pole temperature differences. By contrast, changes in global mean temperature over the past 150 years or so are almost entirely associated with changes in tropical temperature. Thus, there is no intrinsic amplification associated with a change in the tropics-to-pole temperature difference. However, model simulations of climate behave differently from both observations and from each other. In particular, they all show more significant contributions for the tropics-to-pole temperature difference – sometimes much more significant. They also show excessive tropical warming.

28Assessment of thermal variations in the pulpal chamber during fabrication of provisionals using two different techniques and three materials.

The issue of an increase in pulpal temperature affects direct and indirect techniques, where the fabricating material will come in direct contact with the prepared teeth. The aim of this study was to assess the pulpal thermal variations during provisional fabrication using direct and indirect-direct techniques, with three commonly commercially available provisional fabricating materials. In this vitro analytical study, 120 extracted human teeth were placed in a dentulous mould and dental stone was poured, to create a working model with an embedded natural right maxillary central incisor. Recording of thermal changes in the pulp chamber during provisionalization with direct (technique 1) and indirect-direct (technique 2) using three common types of provisional crown materials. 120 provisional crowns were fabricated using polymethyl methacrylate (DPI) (Group 1), Bis-acryl composite (Protemp 4) (Group 2) and Visible-light polymerizing (VLP) Urethane Dimethacrylate (Revotek LC) (Group 3) by two techniques and recording of peak temperature changes were done. Temperature rise in the pulp chamber was recorded using a thermocouple. The mean initial and final temperature of the pulp chamber recorded for Groups 1, 2 and 3 was 31.52, 32.56; 31.01, 32.34; 32.29, 34.47 for technique 1 and 29.13, 30.5; 29.29, 31.11; 30.31, 32.65 for technique 2. The mean change in temperature was higher in Group 3 compared to the other groups. The temperature rise detected according to this study was within the safer pulpal health limits with all the investigated materials and techniques. The resin material recommended for clinical use when the direct technique is employed for the fabrication of provisional crowns is bis-acryl composite resin (Protemp-4) as it caused minimal temperature rise in the pulpal chamber.

Understanding seasonal cycle of daily extreme temperatures based on generalized additive model for location, scale and shape with smoothing spline

AbstractThe seasonal cycle (SC) of surface air temperature is a substantial element in climatology. Some basic and important topics in climate change studies are based on accurate and reliable estimation of SCs, such as percentile‐based indices of extremes and probability density function (PDF) changes of daily temperatures. For both of them, most studies characterized SCs using averages of multi‐days windows, which is not smooth and accurate enough representing the extreme thresholds and climatological normal of SCs. It is necessary to construct smooth and reasonable SCs for more accurate estimation of temperature changes on extreme thresholds and PDFs. In this study, we propose a flexible method based on generalized additive models for location scale and shape and penalized b‐spline smoothing technique with respective distributions to construct smooth SCs and SC for extreme temperatures (SCETs). The accuracy of the constructed smooth SCETs is good with the estimation biases of percentiles tending to be zero. The constructed smooth SCET also exhibits good stability over time, such that the magnitude changes of temperatures on each calendar day are close to climatic changes of mean temperature when the concerned period shifts. Based on the constructed smooth SCs, climatic changes by seasons and PDFs between two periods, 1961–1990 and 1991–2020, are examined over China. The increase of thresholds for hot extremes in spring during the recent period is prominent, while the increase of thresholds for daytime cold extremes in summer over a part of central to southern China is also notable. The smooth SCs and SCETs based on our flexible statistical modelling framework can characterize daily extreme temperatures reasonably and accurately, and should be expected to have more applications for a better understanding of climate changes related to distributions and seasonal cycles.

Lacustrine rhythmites from the Mulhouse Basin (Upper Rhine Graben, France): a sedimentary record of increased seasonal climatic contrast and sensitivity of the climate to orbital variations through the Eocene-Oligocene Transition

The Eocene-Oligocene Transition (EOT) marks the passage from Eocene greenhouse to Oligocene icehouse conditions. It holds keys to our understanding of the behavior of climate systems under major pCO2 shifts. While the environmental impact of the EOT is rather homogenous in oceans, it is much more heterogeneous on continents. Although little to no changes are recorded in some regions, several EOT studies in western Eurasia suggest an increase in seasonal climatic contrast (e.g., higher amplitude of changes in mean temperature or precipitation), along with a higher sensitivity of the climate to orbital variations. However, these variations remain to be properly documented through changes in sedimentary facies and structures and forcing mechanisms. Here we investigate the depocenter of the Mulhouse Basin (Upper Rhine Graben; URG) revealing a prominent transition from massive mudstones to laminated sediments and varves, alongside the emergence of astronomically-forced mudstone-evaporite alternations. These changes are identified in the distal and proximal parts of the southern URG, where they consist of millimeter-thick mudstone-evaporite couplets and siliciclastic-carbonate couplets. The elemental composition and micro-facies analysis of the laminae show a recurrent depositional pattern consistent with a seasonal depositional process, which suggests that they are varves. We propose that the occurrence of varved sediments, together with the observed orbital cyclicity in the southern URG, reflects an increase in seasonal climatic contrast, and an increase in the sensitivity of climate to orbital variations across the EOT. We show that similar changes were noticed in the Rennes and Bourg-en-Bresse basins, and that of other western Eurasian records for similar climatic conditions. This work emphasizes the potential of high-resolution sedimentary structures to serve as markers of climate change across the EOT.

The effect of forest cover changes on the regional climate conditions in Europe during the period 1986–2015

Abstract. Afforestation affects the earth's climate system by changing the biogeochemical and biogeophysical characteristics of the land surface. While the regional effects of afforestation are well understood in the tropics and the high latitudes, its climate impact on the midlatitudes is still the subject of scientific discussions. The general impact of afforestation on the regional climate conditions in Europe during the last decades is investigated in this study. For this purpose, regional climate simulations are performed with different forest cover fractions over Europe. In a first simulation, afforestation in Europe is considered, while this is not the case for a second simulation. We focus on the years 1986–2015, a period in which the forest cover in Europe increased comparatively strongly, accompanied by a strong general warming over the continent. Results show that afforestation has both local and non-local effects on the regional climate system in Europe. Due to an increased transport of turbulent heat (latent + sensible) into the atmosphere, afforestation leads to a significant reduction of the mean local surface temperatures in summer. In northern Europe, mean local surface temperatures were reduced about −0.3 K with afforestation, in central Europe about −0.5 K, and in southern Europe about −0.8 K. During heat periods, this local cooling effect can reach −1.9 K. In winter, afforestation results in a slight local warming in both northern and southern Europe because of the albedo effect of forests. However, this effect is rather small and the mean temperature changes are not significant. In the downwind direction, locally increased evapotranspiration rates with afforestation increase the general cloud cover, which results in a slight non-local warming in winter in several regions of Europe, particularly during cold spells. Thus, afforestation had a discernible impact on the climate change signal in Europe during the period 1986–2015, which may have mitigated the general warming trend in Europe, especially on the local scale in summer.

Comparison of Arctic Front Advance Pro and POLARx cryoballoons for ablation therapy of atrial fibrillation: an intraprocedural analysis.

Cryoballoon (CB) ablation has become a popular method for pulmonary vein isolation (PVI) in atrial fibrillation (AF) treatment. This study aimed to compare the intraprocedural ablation characteristics of two cryoballoons, Arctic Front Advance Pro™ (AFA-Pro, Medtronic) and POLARx™ (Boston Scientific). In this retrospective single-center study, 230 symptomatic paroxysmal or persistent AF patients underwent CB ablation with either AFA-Pro or POLARx. Propensity-score matching resulted in two cohorts of 114 patients each. Baseline and procedural characteristics were comparable between both CBs. POLARx achieved lower minimal temperatures (e.g., left superior pulmonary vein, LSPV: AFA-Pro - 49.0°C vs. POLARx - 59.5°C) and lower temperatures at time-to-isolation (TTI). Additionally, POLARx reached lower temperatures faster, as evidenced by lower temperatures after 40 and 60s, and a larger mean temperature change between 20 and 40s. POLARx also had a greater area under the curve below 0°C and a longer thawing phase. Both CBs achieved comparable high rates of final PV-isolation. TTI, minimal esophagus temperature, and first-pass isolation rates were similar between groups. Periprocedural complications, including phrenic nerve injuries, were comparable. Troponin levels in the left atrium were elevated with both systems. Values and change in troponin were numerically higher in the POLARx group (delta troponin: AFA-Pro 36.3 (26.4, 125.4) ng/L vs. POLARx 104.9 (49.5, 122.2) ng/L), p = 0.077). AFA-Pro and POLARx are both highly effective and safe CB systems for PVI. POLARx exhibited significant faster and lower freezing characteristics, and numerically higher troponin levels might indicate greater myocardial injury. However, these differences did not translate into improved performance, procedural efficiency, or safety.

Impact of climate change on long-term damage detection for structural health monitoring of bridges

The effects of operational and environmental variability have been posed as one of the biggest challenges to transit structural health monitoring (SHM) from research to practice. To deal with that, machine learning algorithms have been proposed to learn from experience based on a reference data set. These machine learning algorithms work well if the operational and environmental conditions under which the bridge operates do not change over time. Meanwhile, climate change has been posed as one of the biggest concerns for the health of bridges. Although the uncertainty associated with the magnitude of the change is large, the fact that our climate is changing is unequivocal. Therefore, it is expected that climate change can be another source of environmental variability, especially the temperature. So, what happens if the mean temperature changes over time? Will it significantly affect the dynamics of bridges? Will the reference data set used for the training of algorithms become outdated? Are machine learning algorithms robust enough to deal with those changes? This is a pioneering work on the impact of climate change on the long-term damage detection in the context of bridge SHM. A classifier rooted in machine learning is trained using one-year data from the Z-24 Bridge in Switzerland and tested with current and future data. Three climate change scenarios are assumed, centered in three future periods, namely 2035, 2060, and 2085. This study concludes that climate change may be seen as another source of operational and environmental variability to be considered when using machine learning algorithms for long-term damage detection.

Atmosphere and ocean energy transport in extreme warming scenarios

Extreme scenarios of global warming out to 2300 from the SSP5-8.5 extension scenario are analyzed in three state-of-the-art climate models, including two models with climate sensitivity greater than 4.5°C. The result is some of the largest warming amounts ever seen in simulations run over the historical record and into the future. The simulations exhibit between 9.3 and 17.5°C global mean temperature change between pre-Industrial and the end of the 23rd century. The extremely large changes in global temperature allow exploration of fundamental questions in climate dynamics, such as the determination of moisture and energy transports, and their relation to global atmosphere-ocean circulation. Three models performed simulations of SSP5-8.5 to 2300: MRI-ESM2-0, IPSL-CM6A-LR, and CanESM5. We analyze these simulations to improve understanding of climate dynamics, rather than as plausible futures. In the model with the most warming, CanESM5, the moisture content of the planet more than doubles, and the hydrologic cycle increases in intensity. In CanESM5 and IPSL-CM6A-LR nearly all sea ice is eliminated in both summer and winter in both hemispheres. In all three models, the Hadley circulation weakens, the tropopause height rises, and storm tracks shift poleward, to varying degrees. We analyze the moist static energy transports in the simulations using a diffusive framework. The dry static energy flux decreases to compensate for the increased moisture transport; however the compensation is imperfect. The total atmospheric transport increases but not as quickly as expected with a constant diffusivity. The decrease in eddy intensity plays an important role in determining the energy transports, as do the pattern of cloud feedbacks and the strength of ocean circulations.

Diapycnal mixing induced by salt finger and internal tides on the northwest coast of India

Microstructure measurements of velocity shear from the continental slope of the northwest coast of India (NWCI) in the eastern Arabian Sea are used to quantify the relative importance of double diffusion and internal tides induced diapycnal mixing in the different depth layers. It is found that the hydrographic conditions in the NWCI are conducive to the formation of moderately strong salt fingering (Turner angle between 55° and 72°). However, salt finger-induced vertical mixing dominates only in the upper 180 m of the water column, below which intense shear-driven turbulent mixing due to internal tide reduces its significance. As a result of this, the staircase structures, a measure of salt finger dominance in the water column, are frequent, and the mean temperature change across the interface (DTIH; 0.33 °C) is relatively larger in the upper 180 m compared to sporadic occurrence of steps with a small magnitude of DTIH (0.18 °C) below 180 m. It is also found that in the upper 180 m of the water column in the NWCI, mean diapycnal diffusivity (Kρ) is approximately a factor of eight larger (8.3 ± 1.3 × 10−5 m2s−1) than the estimation in the open ocean region of the eastern Arabian sea (5.4 ± 1.1 × 10−6 m2 s−1). However, due to internal tides, the magnitude of Kρ reaches as large as O (10−2) m2 s−1 below 180 m in the NWCI. The mean downward heat flux estimated in the salt finger-dominated (upper 180 m) layers is ∼ -6.1 Wm-2, and the shear-driven mixing-dominated layers (below 180 m) is ∼ -10.2 Wm-2.