Mean Growing Season Temperature Research Articles

Timescale effects on the driving mechanisms of post-fire recruitment in Larix gmelinii population

Post-fire recruitment plays a crucial role in enhancing forest resilience. While previous research highlights the importance of early post-fire forest recovery in determining future forest structure, little has breen reported on whether this relationship exists in the boreal coniferous forests of Eastern Siberia. Additionally, there is a lack of research on whether there are differences in the driving mechanisms that affect juvenile recruitment across different timescales. This study compared key biophysical factors affecting recruitment across short-term and long-term timescales. Leveraging field data and dendrochronological techniques, we determined the germination years of saplings and seedlings in 73 plots across eight fire times. We quantified annual recruitment and cumulative recruitment rates post-fire for each plot, examining the correlation between the time to achieve 75% cumulative recruitment post-fire and the number of recruits, thereby assessing the importance of initial recruitment. Utilizing spatial Generalized Linear Mixed Models (GLMMs), we inferred the impact of biophysical factors on recruitment across short- and long-term timescales. Subsequently, we visualized the relationship patterns between predictor variables and recruitment. The findings revealed that plots with a faster post-fire recruitment pace exhibited a greater quantity of recruitment. On long-term timescales, growing-season mean temperature (GSMT) exhibited a positive correlation with Larix gmelinii recruitment. Basal area demonstrated a robust positive effect on Larix gmelinii recruitment, displaying significance at long-term timescales. The stand age between 60 to 150 years, representing the middle-mature stage of Larix gmelinii, is conducive to post-fire recruitment. Downed dead wood (DDW) exhibited a highly significant boost to recruitment at both timescales, albeit with a relatively weaker effect observed at the long-term scale. Our findings provide some confirmation of the critical role of immediate post-fire recruitment in forest resilience, while also unveiling timescale effects that influence the mechanisms of post-fire recruitment. The findings furnish timely new perspectives on integrating temporal scales into model predictions of the recovery process and adaptive forest management strategies.

Substituting readily available nitrogen fertilizer with controlled-release nitrogen fertilizer improves crop yield and nitrogen uptake while mitigating environmental risks: A global meta-analysis

ContextControlled-release nitrogen fertilizer (CRN) is considered as an efficient tool for improving crop total uptake of N (TUN) and crop yield by providing better synchronization of crop N demand, but its effects on crop productivity, greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions and N loss are variable across agroecosystems. Objective and methodsHere, we conducted a meta-analysis by synthesizing 8874 observations from 240 published studies to address the effects of substituting CRN for readily available N fertilizer on crop yield, TUN, profit, GHG emissions, and N loss in rice, maize, wheat, soybean, and rape, with focus on cereals. ResultsOverall, CRN could increase crop productivity (crop yield, 5.1 %; profit, 8.2 %; TUN, 7.1 %) and reduce environmental pollution (GHG emissions, −3.6 % to − 18.6 %; N loss, −32.6 % to −49.1 %). These efficacies varied among crops but showed similar trends in general. The effect of CRN on crop yield was modulated by the N rate and the ratio of CRN. The optimal N rate and CRN ratio to obtain higher crop yields and profits also varied with crops. The CRN efficacies for decreasing GHG emissions and N loss depended on the mean growing season temperature, mean growing season precipitation, background soil total organic carbon content and pH values, the regions, and the CRN ratio and coating materials. A synergy of CRN with other crop management practices, such as mulching and efficient irrigation, was an effective strategy for increasing both crop productivity and environmental benefits. ConclusionsSubstituting readily available nitrogen fertilizer with CRN could produce more food and obtain higher profits with less environmental risk in crops, especially in cereals. ImplicationsThis study provides new insights into the effect of plant-soil-climate-management systems on crop productivity and environmental benefits for Sustainable Development Goals.

Shifting climatic responses of tree rings and NDVI along environmental gradients

Variations in the growth of aboveground biomass compartments such as tree stem and foliage significantly influence the carbon cycle of forest ecosystems. Yet the patterns of climate-driven responses of stem and foliage and their modulating factors remain poorly understood. In this study, we investigate the climatic response of Norway spruce (Picea abies) at 138 sites covering wide spatial and site fertility gradients in temperate forests in Central Europe. To characterize the annual growth rate of stem biomass and seasonal canopy vigor, we used tree-ring chronologies and time-series of NDVI derived from Landsat imagery. We calculated correlations of tree-ring width and NDVI with mean growing season temperature and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). We evaluated how these climate responses varied with aridity index, soil category, stand age, and topographical factors. The results show that the climate-growth responses of tree rings shift from positive to negative for SPEI and from negative to positive for temperature from dry (warm) to wet (cold) areas. By contrast, NDVI revealed a negative response to temperature across the entire climatic gradient. The negative response of NDVI to temperature likely results from drought effects in warm areas and supporting effects of cloudy conditions on foliage greenness in wet areas. Contrary to NDVI, climate responses of tree rings differed according to stand age and were unaffected by local topographical features and soil conditions. Our findings demonstrate that the decoupling of stem and foliage climatic responses may result from their different climatic limitation along environmental gradients. These results imply that in temperate forest ecosystems, the canopy vigor may show different trends compared to stem growth under ongoing climate change.

Increased summer temperature is associated with reduced calf mass of a circumpolar large mammal through direct thermoregulatory and indirect, food quality, pathways

Climate change represents a growing ecological challenge. The (sub) arctic and boreal regions of the world experience the most rapid warming, presenting an excellent model system for studying how climate change affects mammals. Moose (Alces alces) are a particularly relevant model species with their circumpolar range. Population declines across the southern edge of this range are linked to rising temperatures. Using a long-term dataset (1988–1997, 2017–2019), we examine the relative strength of direct (thermoregulatory costs) and indirect (food quality) pathways linking temperature, precipitation, and the quality of two important food items (birch and fireweed) to variation in moose calf mass in northern Sweden. The direct effects of temperature consistently showed stronger relationships to moose calf mass than did the indirect effects. The proportion of growing season days where the temperature exceeded a 20 °C threshold showed stronger direct negative relationships to moose calf mass than did mean temperature values. Finally, while annual forb (fireweed) quality was more strongly influenced by temperature and precipitation than were perennial (birch) leaves, this did not translate into a stronger relationship to moose calf weight. The only indirect path with supporting evidence suggested that mean growing season temperatures were positively associated with neutral detergent fiber, which was, in turn, negatively associated with calf mass. While indirect impacts of climate change deserve further investigation, it is important to recognize the large direct impacts of temperature on cold-adapted species.

Canopy height impacts on the growing season and monthly microclimate in a burned forest of British Columbia, Canada

Forest canopies can buffer seedlings from extreme climate conditions. Yet, how disturbed forest canopies influence microclimate is not well understood, despite the important implications of microclimate for seedling establishment and post-disturbance successional trajectories. Better understanding of the relationship between a forest canopy and sub-canopy temperature and moisture conditions requires easily acquired and continuous forest canopy data, which is increasingly available due to new technology. Here, we measured canopy height using a remotely piloted aircraft (RPA) and monitored microclimate with low-cost temperature and soil moisture sensors in a sub-boreal forest impacted by fires of variable severity. We used regression models to investigate how differences in canopy height influenced microclimate variables. Mean growing season temperatures at -8 cm (soil), 0 cm (surface), and 15 cm (near-surface) relative to the ground surface were higher under shorter more disturbed canopies. Soil temperature was most sensitive to canopy height differences: linear models for the observed data range predicted a 2.0 °C increase in mean growing season soil temperature with every 10 m decrease in canopy height. We observed a weak negative relationship between canopy height and mean growing season soil moisture. We found that canopy height summarized at moderate resolution (15 m) better explained differences in temperature in our disturbed landscape. This work informs future methods to produce gridded microclimate datasets and outlines the impact of disturbed forest structure on microclimate variables. Our results show that the characteristics of the forest canopy remaining after a burn impact microclimates, which has important implications for post-fire ecosystems.

Climate change projections for UK viticulture to 2040: a focus on improving suitability for Pinot Noir

Between 1981–2000 and 1999–2018, growing season average temperatures (GST) in the main UK viticulture regions have warmed ~1.0 °C and are now more reliably >14.0 °C GST. This warming has underpinned the rapid expansion of the UK viticulture sector and its current focus on growing grape varieties for sparkling wine. Near-term (2021–2040) climate change may condition opportunities for further variety and/or wine style changes. Using the latest high-resolution (5 km) ensemble (×12) of downscaled climate change models for the UK (UK Climate Projections; UKCP18) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, we calculate near-term trends and variability in bioclimatic indices (BCIs). We simulate the projected repetition of the UK’s highest yielding season—2018—and use an analogue approach to model the 1999–2018 mean growing season temperatures from Pinot Noir producing areas of Champagne (France), Burgundy (France) and Baden (Germany) over the UK during 2021–2040. We also project, across the UK for the 2021–2040 period, BCI values of recent high-quality vintage years from Champagne and Burgundy. GST are projected to increase from a 1999–2018 spatial range of 13.0 (minimum threshold) –15.7 °C to a future (2021–2040) range of 13.0–17.0 °C, and Growing Degree Days (GDD) from 850 (minimum threshold) –1267 to 850–1515. Growing season precipitation (GSP) is projected to decline in some UK viticulture areas but is not modelled as a limiting viticulture factor. High inter-annual weather variability is simulated to remain a feature of the UK viticulture climate and early season frost risk is likely to occur earlier. Large areas of the UK are projected to have >50 % of years within the bioclimatic ranges experienced during the 2018 growing season, indicating potential higher yields in the future. The 1999–2018 mean Champagne, Burgundy and Baden GST and GDD are projected for much of England and some areas in the far south and south-east of Wales during 2021–2040, with significant areas projected to have >25 % of years within the BCI ranges of top Champagne vintages. These results indicate greater potential for Pinot Noir for sparkling wines and shifting suitability to still red wine production. Accounting for changes in variety suitability and wine styles will be essential to maximise opportunities and build resilience within this rapidly expanding wine region.

Accounting for atmospheric carbon dioxide variations in pollen-based reconstruction of past hydroclimates

Changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration directly influence the ratio of stomatal water loss to carbon uptake. This ratio ( e ) is a fundamental quantity for terrestrial ecosystems, as it defines the water requirement for plant growth. Statistical and analogue-based methods used to reconstruct past hydroclimate variables from fossil pollen assemblages do not take account of the effect of CO 2 variations on e . Here we present a general, globally applicable method to correct for this effect. The method involves solving an equation that relates e to a climatic moisture index (MI, the ratio of mean annual precipitation to mean annual potential evapotranspiration), mean growing-season temperature, and ambient CO 2 . The equation is based on the least-cost optimality hypothesis, which predicts how the ratio (χ) of leaf-internal to ambient CO 2 varies with vapour pressure deficit (vpd), growing-season temperature and atmospheric pressure, combined with experimental evidence on the response of χ to the CO 2 level at which plants have been grown. An empirical relationship based on global climate data is used to relate vpd to MI and growing-season temperature. The solution to the equation allows past MI to be estimated from pollen-reconstructed MI, given past CO 2 and temperature. This MI value can be used to estimate mean annual precipitation, accounting for the effects of orbital variations, temperature and cloud cover (inferred from MI) on potential evapotranspiration. A pollen record from semi-arid Spain that spans the last glacial interval is used to illustrate the method. Low CO 2 leads to estimated MI being larger than reconstructed MI during glacial times. The CO 2 effect on inferred precipitation was partly offset by increased cloud cover; nonetheless, inferred precipitation was greater than present almost throughout the glacial period. This method allows a more robust reconstruction of past hydroclimatic variations than currently available tools. • A model using the least-cost optimality hypothesis to account for physiological effects of CO 2 • The model provides a correction for statistical reconstructions of the moisture index • The model provides a new way to reconstruct mean annual precipitation • Application to glacial pollen data shows climate wetter than inferred statistically

Grassland productivity response to droughts in northern China monitored by satellite-based solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence

Solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) has been applied to a wide range of ecological studies, such as monitoring and assessing drought, vegetation productivity, and crop yield. Previous studies have shown that SIF is highly related to gross primary production (GPP), but its correlation with aboveground biomass (AGB) still needs further exploration. In this study, we explored the potential of SIF for monitoring and assessing the effects of climate change and meteorological drought on grassland AGB changes in the northern grassland of China. By examining the relationship between the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) SIF and drought indices, we assessed the response of northern grassland productivity to meteorological drought conditions. The results show that SIF is very sensitive to meteorological drought and can capture drought events and the dynamics of grassland growth in different grassland types. The correlation between SIF, drought indices, and AGB varied with grassland type. A gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT) was used to explore the relationships between SIF and the impact variables in the grassland ecosystem. We found that climatic factors (e.g., annual mean growing season precipitation, annual mean growing season temperature, and annual mean vapor pressure deficit) and human activity (e.g., grazing intensity) significantly impacted the interannual variability of grassland productivity. Our results indicate that SIF changes can reflect the seasonal dynamics of vegetation growth in the northern grassland of China. Therefore, SIF can be used as benchmark data for evaluating the performance of terrestrial ecosystem models in simulating ecosystem productivity in this region. The high sensitivity of SIF to drought suggests that it is a useful tool for monitoring and assessing drought events.

Separating the impacts of heat stress events from rising mean temperatures on winter wheat yield of China

Warming due to climate change has profound impacts on regional crop yields, and this includes impacts from rising mean growing season temperature and heat stress events. Adapting to these two impacts could be substantially different, and the overall contribution of these two factors on the effects of climate warming and crop yield is not known. This study used the improved WheatGrow model, which can reproduce the effects of temperature change and heat stress, along with detailed information from 19 location-specific cultivars and local agronomic management practices at 129 research stations across the main wheat-producing region of China, to quantify the regional impacts of temperature increase and heat stress separately on wheat in China. Historical climate, plus two future low-warming scenarios (1.5 °C/2.0 °C warming above pre-industrial) and one future high-warming scenario (RCP8.5), were applied using the crop model, without considering elevated CO2 effects. The results showed that heat stress and its yield impact were more severe in the cooler northern sub-regions than the warmer southern sub-regions with historical and future warming scenarios. Heat stress was estimated to reduce wheat yield in most of northern sub-regions by 2.0%–4.0% (up to 29% in extreme years) under the historical climate. Climate warming is projected to increase heat stress events in frequency and extent, especially in northern sub-regions. Surprisingly, higher warming did not result in more yield-impacting heat stress compared to low-warming, due to advanced phenology with mean warming and finally avoiding heat stress events during grain filling in summer. Most negative impacts of climate warming are attributed to increasing mean growing-season temperature, while changes in heat stress are projected to reduce wheat yields by an additional 1.0%–1.5% in northern sub-regions. Adapting to climate change in China must consider the different regional and temperature impacts to be effective.

Interannual variation in ecosystem respiration in an Inner Mongolian meadow steppe in response to livestock grazing

Understanding the effects of livestock grazing on ecosystem respiration (Re) of grassland ecosystems is critical for accurately assessing the feedback of grazing management to climate change. We examined ecosystem respiration in response to varying cattle grazing intensities during growing seasons from 2009 to 2018 in a meadow steppe ecosystem of eastern Inner Mongolia. We found that ungrazed swards had the highest mean annual Re rate, with seasonal CVs in Re ranging from 37.53% to 46.04% for all treatments. When all treatments were analysed as a whole, we identified a significant positive relationship between the annual Re rate and annual peak value of standing plant aboveground biomass. Our findings showed that controlling factors on the mean annual Re differed substantially with grazing intensity. In ungrazed and lightly-grazed plots (G0.00 and G0.23), the mean annual Re rate was controlled mainly by canopy height and/or rainfall, while it was controlled more predominantly by contents of NH4+-N and available phosphorus in moderately and heavily grazed plots. We detected significant positive relationships of the annual Re rate with rainfall, soil moisture, ammonium nitrogen, and soil available phosphorus during the entire study period, whereas significant negative relationships were detected between the annual ecosystem respiration rate and the mean growing season temperature, irrespective of grazing intensity. Our findings revealed that grazing could substantially simplify the relationship between the mean annual Re rate and biotic and abiotic parameters. It may be concluded that the relationship between the annual Re rate and the standing crop aboveground biomass was a principal mechanism underlying the effects of gradient grazing on the Re of Chinese meadow steppe ecosystems.

Geoecological parameters indicate discrepancies between potential and actual forest area in the forest-steppe of Central Mongolia

BackgroundForest distribution in the forest-steppe of Mongolia depends on relief, permafrost, and climate, and is highly sensitive to climate change and anthropogenic disturbance. Forest fires and logging decreased the forest area in the forest-steppe of Mongolia. The intention of this study was to identify the geoecological parameters that control forest distribution and living-tree biomass in this semi-arid environment. Based on these parameters, we aimed to delineate the area that forest might potentially occupy and to analyse the spatial patterns of actual and potential tree biomass.MethodsWe used a combination of various geographic methods in conjunction with statistical analyses to identify the key parameters controlling forest distribution. In several field campaigns, we mapped tree biomass and ecological parameters in a study area within the Tarvagatai Nuruu National Park (central Mongolia). Forest areas, topographic parameters and vegetation indices were obtained from remote sensing data. Significant correlations between forest distribution and living-tree biomass on one hand, and topographic parameters, climate data, and environmental conditions on the other hand, were used to delineate the area of potential forest distribution and to estimate total living-tree biomass for this area.ResultsPresence of forest on slopes was controlled by the factors elevation, aspect, slope, mean annual precipitation, and mean growing-season temperature. Combining these factors allowed for estimation of potential forest area but was less suitable for tree-biomass delineation. No significant differences in mean living-tree biomass existed between sites exposed to different local conditions with respect to forest fire, exploitation, and soil properties. Tree biomass was reduced at forest edges (defined as 30 m wide belt), in small fragmented and in large forest stands. Tree biomass in the study area was 20 × 109 g (1,086 km2 forest area), whereas the potential tree biomass would reach up to 65 × 109 g (> 3168 km2).ConclusionsThe obtained projection suggests that the potential forest area and tree biomass under the present climatic and geoecological conditions is three times that of the present forest area and biomass. Forest fires, which mostly affected large forest stands in the upper mountains, destroyed 43% of the forest area and 45% of the living-tree biomass in the study area over the period 1986–2017.

Quantifying maize grain yield losses caused by climate change based on extensive field data across China

Climate change can have significant impacts on maize (Zea mays L.) grain yield. In this study, we used extensive multi-year field experimental data (n = 423) across different climatic regions of China to distinguish effects of different climate factors on maize grain yield and mimicking the effect of climate change, in particular, temperature and solar radiation. Across the years and climatic regions, the major driver for the yield difference was found to be the diurnal temperature range (DTR) and accumulated photosynthetically active radiation (PAR). 1 °C decrease in DTR and 100 MJ decrease in accumulated PAR resulted in 1.0 t ha−1 and 0.85 t ha−1 reduction in maize grain yield, respectively. 1 °C increase in growing season mean temperature (Tmean) and minimum temperature (Tmin) resulted in 0.83 t ha−1 and 0.67 t ha−1 maize grain yield reduction. By mimicking the effect of climate change on maize grain yield, it was found that 1 °C increase in Tmean resulted in 0.83 t ha−1 (5.8%) maize grain yield reduction. Decrease in PAR also decreased maize grain yield significantly and the 1% decrease in PAR decreased maize grain yield by 0.15 tons per ha. Among all the five cultivars in this study, yield reductions of ZD958 and NH101 induced by 1 °C increase in Tmean were the smallest compared to other three cultivars. The quantitative analysis can provide important guidance to predict possible quantitative outcomes of future changes in crop productivity due to climate change and search for effective mitigation strategies such as cultivar selection.

The impact of weather and increased atmospheric CO2 from 1892 to 2016 on simulated yields of UK wheat.

Climate change effects on UK winter wheat grain yield are complex: warmer temperature, negative; greater carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration, positive; but other environmental variables and their timing also affect yield. In the absence of long-term experiments where temperature and CO2 concentration were manipulated separately, we applied the crop simulation model Sirius with long-term daily meteorological data (1892–2016) for Rothamsted, Hertfordshire, UK (2007–2016 mean growing season temperature 1.03°C warmer than 1892–1991), and CO2 concentration over this period, to investigate the separate effects of historic CO2 and weather on simulated grain yield in three wheat cultivars of the modern era. We show a slight decline in simulated yield over the period 1892–2016 from the effect of weather (daily temperature, rainfall and sunshine hours) at fixed CO2 (294.50 ppm, 1892 reference value), but a maximum 9.4% increase when accounting for increasing atmospheric CO2 (from 294.50 to 404.21 ppm), differing slightly among cultivars. Notwithstanding considerable inter-annual variation, the slight yield decline at 294.50 ppm CO2 over this 125-year period from the historic weather simulations for Rothamsted agrees with the expected decline from temperature increase alone, but the positive yield trend with actual CO2 values does not match the recent stagnation in UK wheat yield.

Decadal and Bi-Decadal Periodicities in Temperature of Southern Scandinavia: Manifestations of Natural Variability or Climatic Response to Solar Cycles?

Nine proxies of temperature over the last 225–300 years in Southern Fennoscandia (55–63° N) were analyzed. Seven reconstructions of the mean growing season temperatures were obtained by dendroclimatological methods. Reconstructions of spring temperatures in Stockholm and winter temperatures in Tallinn were based on historical documentary sources. It was found that significant decadal (10–13 years) and bi-decadal (22–25 years) periodicities were present in many of these series during the entire time interval. Four proxy records correlated significantly with the quasi 22-year solar cycle of Hale. Three time series correlated significantly with the quasi 11-year solar cycle of Schwabe. This can be considered as evidence of a link between decadal and bi-decadal changes in solar activity and climate in Southern Fennoscandia. On the other hand, signs of correlation differed, as well as the time shift between the solar and temperature cycles. It is difficult to explain such an intricate relationship and, thus, the physical mechanism of solar−climatic linkages remains unclear. That is why assumptions about the purely occasional appearance of correlations cannot yet be rejected. Guidelines for further research are suggested.

Local Climatic Factors Mediated Impacts of Large-Scale Climate Oscillations on the Growth of Vegetation Across the Tibetan Plateau

Large-scale climate oscillations, particularly the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), have widespread influences on climate systems across the Tibetan Plateau (TP). It is understudied how the temporal changes in AMO and PDO affected growth of vegetation through modifying the local climatic factors in different areas across the TP. We used the AMO and PDO indices, gridded growing season mean temperature (TGS), cumulative precipitation (PGS), and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVIGS) data from 1982 to 2015 to investigate the temporal trends of these variables and the correlations of the TGS and PGS with each of the AMO and PDO indices as well as their correlations with the NDVIGS. The results showed that the warming of the TGS over the TP and the increases of the PGS in western, central, and northeastern areas of the TP may have been related to an increase of the AMO index and a decrease of the PDO index. Combining those relationships with the spatial patterns of the TGS-NDVIGS and PGS-NDVIGS correlations suggested that the changes of the AMO and PDO may have indirectly increased the NDVIGS in the central and northeastern areas of the TP by increasing TGS and PGS, in most parts of the southwestern TP by increasing PGS, and in the eastern and south-central regions of the TP by increasing TGS. In contrast, the decrease of the NDVIGS in some areas of the southeastern and southwestern TP may have been associated with a negative effect of warming as a result of changes in the AMO and PDO. These results highlight the indirect impacts of changes in large-scale climate oscillations on the growth of vegetation through modification of local climatic factors across the TP, and they suggest the substantial spatial heterogeneity of these impacts largely depends on the responses of vegetation to local climatic factors.

Observational Constraints on the Response of High‐Latitude Northern Forests to Warming

AbstractSince the 1960s, carbon cycling in the high‐latitude northern forest (HLNF) has experienced dramatic changes: Most of the forest is greening and net carbon uptake from the atmosphere has increased. During the same time period, the CO2 seasonal cycle amplitude (SCA) has increased by ~50% or more. Disentangling complex processes that drive these changes has been challenging. In this study, we substitute spatial sensitivity to temperature for time to quantify the impact of temperature increase on gross primary production (GPP), total ecosystem respiration (TER), the fraction of Photosynthetic Active Radiation (fPAR), and the resulted contribution of these changes in amplifying the CO2 SCA over the HLNF since 1960s. We use the spatial heterogeneity of GPP inferred from solar‐induced chlorophyll Fluorescence in combination with net ecosystem exchange (NEE) inferred from column CO2 observations made between 2015 and 2017 from NASA's Orbiting Carbon Observatory‐2. We find that three quarters of the spatial variations in GPP can be explained by the spatial variation in the growing season mean temperature (GSMT). The long term hindcast captures both the magnitude and spatial variability of the trends in observed fPAR. We estimate that between 1960 and 2010, the increase in GSMT enhanced both GPP and the SCA of NEE by ~20%. The calculated enhancement of NEE due to increase in GSMT contributes 56–72% of the trend in the CO2 SCA at high latitudes, much larger than simulations by most biogeochemical models.

Responses of plant biomass and yield component in rice, wheat, and maize to climatic warming: a meta-analysis.

Responses of plant biomass and yield components to warming are species-specific and are shifted as increased warming magnitude rises; this finding improves the results of IPCC AR5. The responses of crop yields to climatic warming have been extensively reported from experimental results, historical yield collections, and modeling research. However, an integrative report on the responses of plant biomass and yield components of three major crops to experimental warming is lacking. Here, a meta-analysis based on the most recent warming experiments was conducted to quantify the climatic warming responses of the biomass, grain yield (GY), and yield components of three staple crops. The results showed that the wheat total aboveground biomass (TAGB) increased by 6.0% with general warming, while the wheat GY did not significantly respond to warming; however, the responses shifted with increases in the mean growing season temperature (MGST). Negative effects on wheat TAGB and GY appeared when the MGSTs were above 15°C and 13°C, respectively. The wheat GY and the number of grains per panicle decreased by 8.4% and 7.5%, respectively, per degree Celsius increase. Increases in temperature significantly reduced the rice TAGB and GY by 4.3% and 16.6%, respectively, but rice straw biomass increased with increasing temperature. However, the rice grain weight and the number of panicles decreased with continuous increasing temperature (ΔTa). The maize biomass, GY, and yield components all generally decreased with climatic warming. Finally, the crop responses to climatic warming were significantly influenced by warming time, warming treatment facility, and methods. Our findings can improve the assessment of crop responses to climatic warming and are useful for ensuring food security while combating future global climate change.

Reduced stomatal frequency with rising elevation for Kobresia royleana on the Tibetan Plateau

Knowledge about within-species variation in stomatal frequency with varying elevation at very high elevations is rare, which is crucial for us to understand how alpine plants are adapted to the extreme environment. Here, we focus on the variation in stomatal frequency in Kobresia royleana (Nees) Boeckeler (Cyperaceae, Cyperales) along two altitudinal transects (elevation ranges from 3723 m to 5081 m) in the center of the Tibetan Plateau. The result shows the stomatal density (SD) varied from 303 ± 55.6 mm−2 to 542 ± 81.8 mm−2, and stomatal index (SI) ranged from 21.0% to 29.6%. In contrast with most cases, an unexpected negative response of stomatal frequency to rising elevation was observed. Among abiotic factors, the growing season mean temperature and CO2 partial pressure significantly declined with increasing elevation, while the growing season precipitation did not vary. Therefore, the decreasing SD and SI were mainly due to the declining temperature rather than the decreasing CO2 partial pressure. Further, SD and SI were negatively related to leaf functional traits of specific leaf area (SLA), leaf nitrogen concentration (N) and stable carbon isotope ratios (δ13C), and all these morphological and physiological traits tended to covary with rising elevation and declining temperature. Meanwhile, the increasing δ13C, N and SLA with elevation seem to be strategies for alpine plants to cope with the low-temperature environments. Therefore, the observed covariance between stomatal frequency and leaf functional traits also suggests that the low temperature rather than low CO2 partial pressure mainly leads to the elevational pattern of stomatal frequency for this alpine species.

Impacts of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming above pre-industrial on potential winter wheat production of China

Abstract Keeping global temperatures below 2.0 °C above pre-industrial condition and pursuing efforts toward the more ambitious 1.5 °C goal in the late 21st century was the main target from the Paris Agreement in 2015. Here we assessed the likely challenges for the China’s winter wheat production under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C increase of global temperature, with four wheat crop models (CERES-Wheat, Nwheat, WheatGrow, and APSIM-Wheat) and the latest climate projections from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts project (HAPPI). Instead of using average “winter type” wheat cultivar, and same management and soil inputs for whole region, location-specific winter wheat cultivars with local agronomic information were calibrated for each of the representative wheat growing area of China, allowing a better spatial agronomic representation of the whole wheat planting area. The mean growing season temperature (GST) during the winter wheat vegetative stage was projected to increase by 0.6 to 1.4 °C for the 1.5 °C scenario, and 0.9 to 1.8 °C for the 2.0 °C scenario, while during the reproductive stage was decreased between 0 and 0.9 °C for the 1.5 °C scenario and -0.3 and 1.1 °C for the 2.0 °C scenario. Growing season duration (GSD) for the whole period was shortened by 6 to 15 days for the 1.5 °C scenario and 8 to 18 days for the 2.0 °C scenario, as a result of higher GST under global warming. Increase in GST and decrease in GSD was more obvious in the Southwest Subregion (SWS) than subregions in the north. The shortening GSD for the whole wheat growth period was mostly from the shortening vegetative period, as no appreciable difference in number of days from anthesis to maturity was found for the whole regions. Although there is variability among models, the indication is that wheat yields were projected to increase in the North Subregion (NS), the Huang-Huai Subregion (HHS), and the Middle-lower Researches of Yangzi River Subregion (MYS), but to decrease in the SWS under two warming scenarios. The effects of elevated CO2 concentration were mostly beneficial and tended to offset the negative impacts of increasing temperature at both global warming scenarios, with a rate of 7-14% yield increase per 100-ppm, except for locations with GST of baseline higher than 11 °C. Aggregating to regional wheat production, the total winter wheat production of China was projected to increase by 2.8% (1.6% to 3.0%, 25th percentile to 75th percentile) and 8.3% (7.0% to 9.6%, 25th percentile to 75th percentile) under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C scenarios, and most of increase was observed in the north subregions due to the largest wheat planting area. Our results will lay the foundation for developing adaptation strategies to future climate change to ensure China and global wheat supply and food security.

Effects of long-term climatic variability and harvest frequency on grassland productivity across five ecoregions

The degree to which grassland aboveground biomass responds to climatic variability (e.g. annual and growing season precipitation and temperature) as well as management practices (e.g. harvest frequency) has attracted considerable interest in ecological studies. This understanding is important for maintaining ecosystem stability and sustainable delivery of ecosystem services under climate change. Here, we analyzed grassland biomass observations in 31 study sites in 5 ecoregions (i.e. cold steppe, humid savanna, humid temperate, savanna, and temperate dry steppe) to examine the effects of growing season and annual climatic variability and harvest frequency on aboveground biomass productivity. Annual aboveground biomass productivity showed significant increasing trends in humid temperate and savanna, but the changes of annual biomass in cold steppe, humid savanna, and temperate dry steppe ecoregions were insignificant. Single harvest aboveground biomass in cold steppe, humid savanna and humid temperate ecoregions increased with higher growing season precipitation and temperature. Although annual precipitation had positive effects on annual biomass, we found growing season precipitation sum was a more important determinant in all ecoregions. Impacts of mean annual and growing season temperature on annual biomass in humid temperate were significantly positive, while significant adverse impacts of mean growing season temperature and mean annual temperature were found in savanna and temperate dry steppe ecoregions, respectively. Irrespective of climatic variability, annual biomass consistently increased with increasing harvest frequency across ecoregions. Our study found significant gains in grassland aboveground biomass across ecoregions with increased precipitation and harvest frequency, and significant loses of biomass in savanna and temperate ecoregions with increased temperature. Our results help improve the understanding of the differences in the responses of grassland productivity to climate variability and harvest frequency across various ecoregions, which is of importance to achieve sustainable grassland management in different geographical regions.