Mean Annual Percentage Change Research Articles

Increasing trend in hypertension prevalence among Korean adolescents from 2007 to 2020

BackgroundThe purpose of this study was to examine the prevalence of hypertension in Korean adolescents, its long-term trends, and factors associated with the development of hypertension.MethodsData of the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES) from 2007 to 2020 were combined into three time periods (2007–2011, 2012–2016, and 2017–2020). A total of 11,146 Korean adolescents aged 10–18 were included in the analysis. The definition of hypertension was based on the 2017 American Academy of Pediatrics guidelines for hypertension.ResultsThe age-adjusted prevalence of hypertension was 5.47%, 7.85%, and 9.92% in 2007–2011, 2012–2016, and 2017–2020, respectively. Long-term trend analysis using Joinpoint analysis over the observation period showed a significantly increasing trend in hypertension prevalence with a mean annual percentage change of 6.4%. Boys, those aged 13–15, those aged 16–18, overweight/obese, and those living in urban areas were more likely to develop hypertension (OR 1.980, 1.492, 3.180, 2.943, and 1.330, respectively).ConclusionThe prevalence of hypertension in Korean adolescents was higher than the global prevalence of hypertension and showed an increase over a 13–year period. Targeted strategies for prevention and early detection of hypertension are needed in this population.

Rural-urban disparities in pregestational and gestational diabetes in pregnancy: Serial, cross-sectional analysis of over 12 million pregnancies.

To compare trends in pregestational (DM) and gestational diabetes (GDM) in pregnancy in rural and urban areas in the USA, because pregnant women living in rural areas face unique challenges that contribute to rural-urban disparities in adverse pregnancy outcomes. Serial, cross-sectional analysis. US National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) Natality Files from 2011 to 2019. A total of 12 401 888 singleton live births to nulliparous women aged 15-44 years. We calculated the frequency (95% confidence interval [CI]) per 1000 live births, the mean annual percentage change (APC), and unadjusted and age-adjusted rate ratios (aRR) of DM and GDM in rural compared with urban maternal residence (reference) per the NCHS Urban-Rural Classification Scheme overall, and by delivery year, reported race and ethnicity, and US region (effect measure modification). The outcomes (modelled separately) were diagnoses of DM and GDM. From 2011 to 2019, there were increases in both the frequency (per 1000 live births; mean APC, 95% CI per year) of DM and GDM in rural areas (DM: 7.6 to 10.4 per 1000 live births; APC 2.8%, 95% CI 2.2%-3.4%; and GDM: 41.4 to 58.7 per 1000 live births; APC 3.1%, 95% CI 2.6%-3.6%) and urban areas (DM: 6.1 to 8.4 per 1000 live births; APC 3.3%, 95% CI 2.2%-4.4%; and GDM: 40.8 to 61.2 per 1000 live births; APC 3.9%, 95% CI 3.3%-4.6%). Individuals living in rural areas were at higher risk of DM (aRR 1.48, 95% CI 1.45%-1.51%) and GDM versus those in urban areas (aRR 1.17, 95% CI 1.16%-1.18%). The increased risk was similar each year for DM (interaction p = 0.8), but widened over time for GDM (interaction p < 0.01). The rural-urban disparity for DM was wider for individuals who identified as Hispanic race/ethnicity and in the South and West (interaction p < 0.01 for all); and for GDM the rural-urban disparity was generally wider for similar factors (i.e. Hispanic race/ethnicity, and in the South; interaction p < 0.05 for all). The frequency of DM and GDM increased in both rural and urban areas of the USA from 2011 to 2019 among nulliparous pregnant women. Significant rural-urban disparities existed for DM and GDM, and increased over time for GDM. These rural-urban disparities were generally worse among those of Hispanic race/ethnicity and in women who lived in the South. These findings have implications for delivering equitable diabetes care in pregnancy in rural US communities.

Gender and age-related variations in human immunodeficiency virus infection trends at the Mexican Institute of Social Security: 2003-2017.

Diagnosing and treating human immunodeficiency virus carriers has led to the identification of a higher prevalence of said infection and, therefore, of a higher risk of transmission of the virus. To find out the trend of new cases of human immunodeficiency virus infection carriers at the Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social (IMSS) in Mexico within the 2003-2017 period. Patients affiliated to the IMSS were analyzed. Data from 42,181 newly-diagnosed cases were collected, with variations related to gender and age being observed. Age-standardized rates per 100,000 population were obtained. The highest mean annual percentage change in males was documented in adolescents (13.0, 95% CI = 9.9, 16.1). Heterogeneous trends were recorded for women, with a significant overall decrease (-2.2, 95% CI = -3.4, -1.0), but growing trends were also observed in some groups. Our results suggest that the human immunodeficiency epidemic in patients cared for at the Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social is concentrated in males, with a growing trend particularly in adolescents.

Changes in childhood stroke mortality from 1990 to 2019 in Brazil and its federative units

This research analyzed the temporal trend of stroke mortality in children aged 0–14 years, from 1990 to 2019, in Brazil and its federative units. This ecological study used data from the Global Burden of Disease, a study led by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Stroke definition considered the International Classification of Diseases according to codes G45, G46, and I60–I69. Age-standardized mortality rates and the mean annual percentage change (APC) in mortality rates were estimated. Stroke mortality trends decreased, with an APC of − 3.9% (95% CI − 4.5; − 3.3; p < 0.001). Reducing trends were found in all but two states, where they were stationary. Maranhão (− 6.5%; 95% CI − 7.6; − 5.4; p < 0.001) had the greatest reduction and Rondônia, the smallest (− 1.2%; 95% CI − 2.3; − 0.1, p = 0.027). Decrease was more important in children < 5 (− 5.8%; 95% CI − 6.3; − 5.2; p < 0.001) compared to 5–14 years old (− 2.1%; 95% CI − 2.9; − 1.3; p < 0.001); additionally, it was greater in girls (− 4.1%; 95% CI − 4.6; − 3.5; p < 0.001) than in boys (− 3.8%; 95% IC − 4.5; − 3.1; p < 0.001). Ischemic stroke had the highest APC (− 6.1%; 95% CI − 6.8; − 5.3; p < 0.001), followed by intracranial hemorrhage (− 5.3%; 95% CI − 6.1; − 4.5; p < 0.001) and subarachnoid hemorrhage (− 2.7%; 95% CI − 3.3; − 2.1; p < 0.001). Largest reductions were seen in states with more vulnerable socioeconomic contexts. The stationary trends and lowest APCs were concentrated in the northern region, which had greater impact of diseases and less favorable outcomes.

Forecasting Malaria Morbidity to 2036 Based on Geo-Climatic Factors in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Background: Malaria is a global burden in terms of morbidity and mortality. In the Democratic Republic of Congo, malaria prevalence is increasing due to strong climatic variations. Reductions in malaria morbidity and mortality, the fight against climate change, good health and well-being constitute key development aims as set by the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This study aims to predict malaria morbidity to 2036 in relation to climate variations between 2001 and 2019, which may serve as a basis to develop an early warning system that integrates monitoring of rainfall and temperature trends and early detection of anomalies in weather patterns. Methods: Meteorological data were collected at the Mettelsat and the database of the Epidemiological Surveillance Directorate including all malaria cases registered in the surveillance system based on positive blood test results, either by microscopy or by a rapid diagnostic test for malaria, was used to estimate malaria morbidity and mortality by province of the DRC from 2001 to 2019. Malaria prevalence and mortality rates by year and province using direct standardization and mean annual percentage change were calculated using DRC mid-year populations. Time series combining several predictive models were used to forecast malaria epidemic episodes to 2036. Finally, the impact of climatic factors on malaria morbidity was modeled using multivariate time series analysis. Results: The geographical distribution of malaria prevalence from 2001 and 2019 shows strong disparities between provinces with the highest of 7700 cases per 100,000 people at risk for South Kivu. In the northwest, malaria prevalence ranges from 4980 to 7700 cases per 100,000 people at risk. Malaria has been most deadly in Sankuru with a case-fatality rate of 0.526%, followed by Kasai (0.430%), Kwango (0.415%), Bas-Uélé, (0.366%) and Kwilu (0.346%), respectively. However, the stochastic trend model predicts an average annual increase of 6024.07 malaria cases per facility with exponential growth in epidemic waves over the next 200 months of the study. This represents an increase of 99.2%. There was overwhelming evidence of associations between geographic location (western, central and northeastern region of the country), total evaporation under shelter, maximum daily temperature at two meters altitude and malaria morbidity (p < 0.0001). Conclusions: The stochastic trends in our time series observed in this study suggest an exponential increase in epidemic waves over the next 200 months of the study. The increase in new malaria cases is statistically related to population density, average number of rainy days, average wind speed, and unstable and intermediate epidemiological facies. Therefore, the results of this research should provide relevant information for the Congolese government to respond to malaria in real time by setting up a warning system integrating the monitoring of rainfall and temperature trends and early detection of anomalies in weather patterns.

Trends in the disease burden of congenital heart disease in China over the past three decades.

To investigate the disease burden of congenital heart disease (CHD) in China from 1990 to 2019. Using the data from Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2019, the incidence, age-standardized incidence rates, the mortality, age-standardized mortality rates, disability-adjusted life year (DALY) and age-standardized DALY rates of CHD were calculated. Time trend analysis of disease burden-related indicators was analyzed by Joinpoint regression model. Age-period-cohort model was used to describe age, period, and birth cohort effects in CHD mortality population. The relationship between age-standardized incidence, mortality, DALY rates of congenital heart disease and human development index (HDI) were analyzed by Pearson correlation. From 1990 to 2019, the mean annual percentage change (AAPC) in age-standardized incidence rate, mortality rate and DALY rate of CHD in China were -0.1%(95% CI: -0.7%-0.4%)、-3.5%(95% CI: -3.7%--3.2%) and -3.5%(95% CI: -3.7%--3.2%), respectively. CHD usually occurred in the first year of life. The mean incidence rate at birth was 2497.9/100 000, and the mean incidence rate under 1 year of age was 2626.6/100 000. During the period of 1995-2000, the incidence rate in newborn and <1 year children showed an exponential upward trend, then it remained a steady downward trend. However, there was an exponential increase in <1 year children during 2010-2013 and 2014-2015, followed by an exponential decrease to the lowest value in the last three decades. The mortality of CHD tended to decrease with age, with mortality of 101.67/100 000 for children under 5 years of age and a decrease after 5 years of age. However, there was a transient increase in mortality in age group 55-<60. From 1995 to 2019, the relative risk of death of patients with CHD showed a downward trend. Compared with 1995-1999, the rate ratio of death decreased by 24% in 2015-2019. Such downward trend was also observed in the birth cohort after 1945. Compared with the 1945-1949 birth cohort, the rate ratio of death for patients with CHD decreased by 75% in the 2015-2019 birth cohort. When HDI<0.58 (before 1999), the age-standardized incidence of CHD was positively correlated with HDI ( r=0.74, P<0.05). When HDI≥0.58 (after 1999), the age-standardized incidence of CHD was negatively correlated with HDI ( r=-0.76, P<0.01). The age-standardized mortality and DALY rates were negatively correlated with HDI ( r=-0.95 and -0.93, both P<0.01). During 1990 to 1999, the incidence of CHD increases and is positively correlated with the social development. During 1999 to 2019, the incidence of CHD decreases and is negatively correlated with the social development. The disease burden of CHD decreases and is negatively correlated with the social development. Some progress has been made in the field of prevention and control of CHD, but the disease burden remains high among younger population in China.

Temporal Trends in Adverse Pregnancy Outcomes in Birthing Individuals Aged 15 to 44Years in the United States, 2007 to 2019.

BackgroundAdverse pregnancy outcomes (APOs) (hypertensive disorders of pregnancy [HDP], preterm delivery [PTD], or low birth weight [LBW]) are associated adverse maternal and offspring cardiovascular outcomes. Therefore, we sought to describe nationwide temporal trends in the burden of each APO (HDP, PTD, LBW) from 2007 to 2019 to inform strategies to optimize maternal and offspring health outcomes.Methods and ResultsWe performed a serial cross‐sectional analysis of APO subtypes (HDP, PTD, LBW) from 2007 to 2019. We included maternal data from all live births that occurred in the United States using the National Center for Health Statistics Natality Files. We quantified age‐standardized and age‐specific rates of APOs per 1000 live births and their respective mean annual percentage change. All analyses were stratified by self‐report of maternal race and ethnicity. Among 51 685 525 live births included, 15% were to non‐Hispanic Black individuals, 24% Hispanic individuals, and 6% Asian individuals. Between 2007 and 2019, age standardized HDP rates approximately doubled, from 38.4 (38.2–38.6) to 77.8 (77.5–78.1) per 1000 live births. A significant inflection point was observed in 2014, with an acceleration in the rate of increase of HDP from 2007 to 2014 (+4.1% per year [3.6–4.7]) to 2014 to 2019 (+9.1% per year [8.1–10.1]). Rates of PTD and LBW increased significantly when co‐occurring in the same pregnancy with HDP. Absolute rates of APOs were higher in non‐Hispanic Black individuals and in older age groups. However, similar relative increases were seen across all age,racial and ethnic groups.ConclusionsIn aggregate, APOs now complicate nearly 1 in 5 live births. Incidence of HDP has increased significantly between 2007 and 2019 and contributed to the reversal of favorable trends in PTD and LBW. Similar patterns were observed in all age groups, suggesting that increasing maternal age at pregnancy does not account for these trends. Black–White disparities persisted throughout the study period.

Risk of Adverse Pregnancy Outcomes Among Pregnant Individuals With Gestational Diabetes by Race and Ethnicity in the United States, 2014-2020

Gestational diabetes, which increases the risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes, has been increasing in frequency across all racial and ethnic subgroups in the US. To assess whether the frequency of adverse pregnancy outcomes among those in the US with gestational diabetes changed over time and whether the risk of these outcomes differed by maternal race and ethnicity. Exploratory serial, cross-sectional, descriptive study using US National Center for Health Statistics natality data for 1 560 822 individuals with gestational diabetes aged 15 to 44 years with singleton nonanomalous live births from 2014 to 2020 in the US. Year of delivery and race and ethnicity, as reported on the birth certificate, stratified as non-Hispanic American Indian, non-Hispanic Asian/Pacific Islander, non-Hispanic Black, Hispanic/Latina, and non-Hispanic White (reference group). Maternal outcomes of interest included cesarean delivery, primary cesarean delivery, preeclampsia or gestational hypertension, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and transfusion; neonatal outcomes included large for gestational age (LGA), macrosomia (>4000 g at birth), small for gestational age (SGA), preterm birth, and neonatal ICU (NICU) admission, as measured by the frequency (per 1000 live births) with estimation of mean annual percentage change (APC), disparity ratios, and adjusted risk ratios. Of 1 560 822 included pregnant individuals with gestational diabetes (mean [SD] age, 31 [5.5] years), 1% were American Indian, 13% were Asian/Pacific Islander, 12% were Black, 27% were Hispanic/Latina, and 48% were White. From 2014 to 2020, there was a statistically significant increase in the overall frequency (mean APC per year) of preeclampsia or gestational hypertension (4.2% [95% CI, 3.3% to 5.2%]), transfusion (8.0% [95% CI, 3.8% to 12.4%]), preterm birth at less than 37 weeks (0.9% [95% CI, 0.3% to 1.5%]), and NICU admission (1.0% [95% CI, 0.3% to 1.7%]). There was a significant decrease in cesarean delivery (-1.4% [95% CI, -1.7% to -1.1%]), primary cesarean delivery (-1.2% [95% CI, -1.5% to -0.9%]), LGA (-2.3% [95% CI, -2.8% to -1.8%]), and macrosomia (-4.7% [95% CI, -5.3% to -4.0%]). There was no significant change in maternal ICU admission and SGA. In comparison with White individuals, Black individuals were at significantly increased risk of all assessed outcomes, except LGA and macrosomia; American Indian individuals were at significantly increased risk of all assessed outcomes except cesarean delivery and SGA; and Hispanic/Latina and Asian/Pacific Islander individuals were at significantly increased risk of maternal ICU admission, preterm birth, NICU admission, and SGA. Differences in adverse outcomes by race and ethnicity persisted through these years. From 2014 through 2020, the frequency of multiple adverse pregnancy outcomes in the US increased among pregnant individuals with gestational diabetes. Differences in adverse outcomes by race and ethnicity persisted.

Mortality trend and analysis of potential years of life lost due to leukemia and lymphoma in Brazil and Mato Grosso.

To estimate the mortality trend and to analyze the potential years of life lost (PYLL) due to leukemias and lymphomas in Brazil and Mato Grosso, from 2001 to 2019. Time-series study on deaths from leukemias and lymphomas with data obtained from the Mortality Information System. Trends were calculated by age group by the Joinpoint regression method, using calendar year as regressor variable, estimated annual percentage change (APC) and mean annual percentage change, considering 95% confidence intervals. PYLL rates were collected from the Cancer Mortality Atlas. In Brazil, the mortality rate trend remained stable for both diseases in the period: leukemias (APC=0.2; 95%CI 0.0-0.3) and lymphomas (APC=0.2; 95%CI 0.4-0.1). In Mato Grosso state, the rate for leukemias was also stable (APC=0.3; 95%CI 1.0-1.6). For lymphomas, the trend was ascendant (APC=2.3; 95%CI 0.5-4.2), but descending among people younger than 59 years. For leukemias, PYLL rates were 64 and 65/100,000 in Brazil and Mato Grosso, respectively. For lymphomas, 27 and 22/100,000, respectively, with the highest rates found among males. The behavior of mortality rates from leukemia and lymphoma in Mato Grosso was different from that observed nationally, with an upward trend for lymphomas and no differences between age groups for both diseases. PYLL rates for leukemias were similar, while for lymphomas they were higher among men and lower in Mato Grosso when compared to Brazil.

10-Year Trend of Abdominal Magnetic Resonance Imaging Compared With Abdominal Computed Tomography Scans in Inflammatory Bowel Disease.

Patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) frequently undergo multiple computed tomography (CT) examinations. With the widespread availability of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), it is unclear whether the use of CTs in IBD has declined. We aimed to analyze the trends of CT and MRI use in a large cohort of IBD patients in a 10-year period. We retrospectively analyzed adults ≥18 years of age using a de-identified database, IBM Explorys. Patients with ≥1 CT of the abdomen (± pelvis) or MRI of the abdomen (± pelvis) at least 30 days after the diagnosis of Crohn's disease (CD) or ulcerative colitis (UC) were included. We examined the factors associated with patients undergoing multiple CTs (≥5 CTs of the abdomen) and performed a trend analysis from 2010 to 2019. Among 176 110 CD and 143 460 UC patients, those with ≥1 CT of the abdomen annually increased from 2010 to 2019 with mean annual percentage change of +3.6% for CD and +4.9% for UC. Similarly, annual percentage change for patients with ≥1 MRI (CD: +15.6%; UC: +22.8%) showed a rising trend. There was a 3.8% increase in CD patients receiving ≥5 CTs of the abdomen annually compared with a 2.4% increase among UC patients in the 10-year period. Age ≥50 years, men, African Americans, public insurance payors, body mass index ≥30kg/m2, and smoking history were associated with ≥5 CTs. There is a considerable increase in the number of CT scans performed in IBD patients. Further studies can explore factors influencing the use of CT and MRI of the abdomen in IBD patients.

Lung cancer deaths (England 2001–2017)—comorbidities: a national population-based analysis

BackgroundThe presence of comorbidities in people with lung cancer is common. Despite this, large-scale contemporary reports describing patterns and trends in comorbidities are limited.Design and methodsPopulation-based patterns and trends analysis...

Head and neck cancer in Cali, Colombia: Population-based study.

Head and neck cancer (HNC) is the seventh most common type of cancer in the world. In Latin America, data on HCN are limited by the scarcity of population-based cancer registries. To describe survival and changes in the time trends of incidence and mortality rates of HCN with data from the Cali Cancer Population Registry (Colombia) during 1962-2018. Males and females of any age residing in Cali were included. The trends in incidence rates (1962-2016) and mortality (1984-2018) were analysed by calculating the mean annual percentage change (APC). Five-year net survival was estimated for the four 5-year periods of 1996-2015 using the Pohar-Perme method. During 1962-2015, 5,110 new cases of HNC were recorded: 1,506 in the larynx, 1,377 in the oral cavity, 487 in the nose and paranasal sinuses, 643 in the oropharynx, 603 in the salivary glands and 360 in Naso-Hypopharynx region. The incidence rates of HNC decreased significantly at all subsites, except in those associated with the human papillomavirus. Between 1984 and 2018, there were 1,941 deaths attributed to HNC, and the mortality rate decreased significantly. The 5-year age-standardized net survival was 43.2% in 1996-2000, remained stable during the following decade, and for 2011-2015 it was 50.9%. The incidence and mortality of HNC in Cali decreased significantly during the study period in both sexes.

Association Between County-Level Change in Economic Prosperity and Change in Cardiovascular Mortality Among Middle-aged US Adults

After a decline in cardiovascular mortality for nonelderly US adults, recent stagnation has occurred alongside rising income inequality. Whether this is associated with underlying economic trends is unclear. To assess the association between changes in economic prosperity and trends in cardiovascular mortality in middle-aged US adults. Retrospective analysis of the association between change in 7 markers of economic prosperity in 3123 US counties and county-level cardiovascular mortality among 40- to 64-year-old adults (102 660 852 individuals in 2010). Mean rank for change in 7 markers of economic prosperity between 2 time periods (baseline: 2007-2011 and follow-up: 2012-2016). A higher mean rank indicates a greater relative increase or lower relative decrease in prosperity (range, 5 to 92; mean [SD], 50 [14]). Mean annual percentage change (APC) in age-adjusted cardiovascular mortality rates. Generalized linear mixed-effects models were used to estimate the additional APC associated with a change in prosperity. Among 102 660 852 residents aged 40 to 64 years living in these counties in 2010 (51% women), 979 228 cardiovascular deaths occurred between 2010 and 2017. Age-adjusted cardiovascular mortality rates did not change significantly between 2010 and 2017 in counties in the lowest tertile for change in economic prosperity (mean [SD], 114.1 [47.9] to 116.1 [52.7] deaths per 100 000 individuals; APC, 0.2% [95% CI, -0.3% to 0.7%]). Mortality decreased significantly in the intermediate tertile (mean [SD], 104.7 [38.8] to 101.9 [41.5] deaths per 100 000 individuals; APC, -0.4% [95% CI, -0.8% to -0.1%]) and highest tertile for change in prosperity (100.0 [37.9] to 95.1 [39.1] deaths per 100 000 individuals; APC, -0.5% [95% CI, -0.9% to -0.1%]). After accounting for baseline prosperity and demographic and health care-related variables, a 10-point higher mean rank for change in economic prosperity was associated with 0.4% (95% CI, 0.2% to 0.6%) additional decrease in mortality per year. In this retrospective study of US county-level mortality data from 2010 to 2017, a relative increase in county-level economic prosperity was significantly associated with a small relative decrease in cardiovascular mortality among middle-aged adults. Individual-level inferences are limited by the ecological nature of the study.

Trends in Pediatric Thyroid Cancer Incidence, Treatment, and Clinical Course in Korea During 2004-2016: A Nationwide Population-Based Study.

Background: The incidence of thyroid cancer has increased worldwide. We investigated nationwide trends in the incidence and treatment course of pediatric thyroid cancer in South Korea. Methods: Using the National Health Information Database, we analyzed 1580 patients (324 males) <20 years of age diagnosed with thyroid cancer during 2004-2016 in South Korea. The annual percentage change (APC) in the age-standardized incidence rate (ASR) was calculated by joinpoint regression analysis. The initial treatment modality was categorized as either surgery only or surgery with radioactive-iodine treatment (surgery+RAIT), and we defined new treatment events as reoperations or additional RAITs among 1464 patients followed up for ≥12 months. Results: During 2004-2016, the mean ASR per 100,000 person-years increased from 0.6 [confidence interval; CI 0.5-0.8] to 0.9 [CI 0.8-1.1], with a mean APC of 4.0% [CI 1.8-6.2]. The ASRs (APCs) among 0-9-, 10-14-, 15-17-, and 18-19-year olds were 0.07 (9.9% [CI 0.08-20.7]), 0.6 (4.6% [CI 0.2-9.2]), 2.2 (3.9 [CI 1.7-6.0]), and 4.2 (3.5% [CI 0.9-6.2]), respectively. The lobectomy and lymph-node-dissection rates increased (from 18.5% to 33.6%, p = 0.0014; and from 29.6% to 84.5%, p < 0.001; respectively), but the RAIT rate decreased (67.9-39.7%, p < 0.001) during the study period. During a median 6.3-year follow-up, two patients died. New treatment events occurred in 56 (10.7%) of patients in the initial surgery-only group (n = 523). In the initial surgery+RAIT group (n = 941), 316 patients received two or more RAITs within 2 years, and 80 (12.8%) of the remaining 625 patients underwent new treatment events. In the surgery+RAIT subgroup, the event-free survival rate was lower in 0-14-year olds than in 18-19-year olds (hazard ratio 2.5 [CI 1.4-4.4]). Conclusions: The pediatric thyroid cancer incidence increased from 2004 to 2012 in South Korea. The lobectomy and lymph-node-dissection rates increased, but the RAIT rate decreased. The higher risk for new treatment events in patients younger than 15 years requiring initial RAIT may be linked to advanced stage at diagnosis, and it needs to be further evaluated.

Trends in Cancer Incidence in US Adolescents and Young Adults, 1973-2015

Previous studies have demonstrated that adolescents and young adults (AYAs) with cancer are a distinct cancer population; however, research on long-term epidemiological trends and characteristics of cancers in AYAs is lacking. To characterize the epidemiology of cancer in AYAs aged 15 to 39 years with respect to (1) patient demographic characteristics, (2) frequencies of cancer types, and (3) cancer incidence trends over time. This retrospective, serial cross-sectional, population-based study used registry data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database from January 1, 1973, to December 31, 2015 (SEER 9 and SEER 18). The study population was from geographically distinct US regions, chosen to represent the racial and ethnic heterogeneity of the country. Initial analyses were performed from January 1 to August 31, 2019. Incidence rates and descriptive epidemiological statistics for patients aged 15 to 39 years with invasive cancer. A total of 497 452 AYAs diagnosed from 1973 to 2015 were included in this study, with 293 848 (59.1%) female and 397 295 (79.9%) White participants. As AYAs aged, an increase in the relative incidence of carcinomas and decrease in the relative incidence of leukemias, lymphomas, germ cell and trophoblastic neoplasms, and neoplasms of the central nervous system occurred. Among the female AYAs, 72 564 (24.7%) were diagnosed with breast carcinoma; 48 865 (16.6%), thyroid carcinoma; and 33 828 (11.5%), cervix and uterus carcinoma. Among the male AYAs, 37 597 (18.5%) were diagnosed with testicular cancer; 20 850 (10.2%), melanoma; and 19 532 (9.6%), non-Hodgkin lymphoma. The rate of cancer in AYAs increased by 29.6% from 1973 to 2015, with a mean annual percentage change (APC) per 100 000 persons of 0.537 (95% CI, 0.426-0.648; P < .001). Kidney carcinoma increased at the greatest rate for both male (APC, 3.572; 95% CI, 3.049-4.097; P < .001) and female (APC, 3.632; 95% CI, 3.105-4.162; P < .001) AYAs. In this cross-sectional, US population-based study, cancer in AYAs was shown to have a unique epidemiological pattern and is a growing health concern, with many cancer subtypes having increased in incidence from 1973 to 2015. Continued research on AYA cancers is important to understanding and addressing the distinct health concerns of this population.

Space-time clustering and temporal trends of hospitalizations due to pulmonary tuberculosis: potential strategy for assessing health care policies.

Tuberculosis (TB) causes pressure on healthcare resources, especially in terms of hospital admissions, despite being considered an ambulatory care-sensitive condition for which timely and effective care in ambulatory setting could prevent the need for hospitalization. Our objectives were to describe the spatial and temporal variation in pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) hospitalizations, identify critical geographic areas at municipality level and characterize clusters of PTB hospitalizations to help the development of tailored disease management strategies that could improve TB control. Ecologic study using sociodemographic, geographical and clinical information of PTB hospitalization cases from continental Portuguese public hospitals, between 2002 and 2016. Descriptive statistics, spatiotemporal cluster analysis and temporal trends were conducted. The space-time analysis identified five clusters of higher rates of PTB hospitalizations (2002-16), including the two major cities in the country (Lisboa and Porto). Globally, we observed a -7.2% mean annual percentage change in rate with only one of the identified clusters (out of six) with a positive trend (+4.34%). In the more recent period (2011-16) was obtained a mean annual percentage change in rate of -8.12% with only one cluster identified with an increase trend (+9.53%). Our results show that space-time clustering and temporal trends analysis can be an invaluable resource to monitor the dynamic of the disease and contribute to the design of more effective, focused interventions. Interventions such as enhancing the detection of active and latent infection, improving monitoring and evaluation of treatment outcomes or adjusting the network of healthcare providers should be tailored to the specific needs of the critical areas identified.

Heterogeneous trends in burden of heart disease mortality by subtypes in the United States, 1999-2018: observational analysis of vital statistics

ObjectiveTo describe trends in the burden of mortality due to subtypes of heart disease from 1999 to 2018 to inform targeted prevention strategies and reduce disparities.DesignSerial cross sectional analysis of...

A27 INCREASING INCIDENCE OF COLORECTAL CANCER IN ADULTS UNDER AGE OF 50 IN ALBERTA

Abstract Background Overall colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence has been decreasing in Canada since the early 2000s, most likely due to increased use of colorectal cancer screening for adults over the age of 50. However, the incidence of CRC may be rising in adults younger than age 50 both in Canada and the USA. The American Cancer Society in 2018 issued a qualified recommendation that people with an average risk of CRC should start screening at age 45. The burden of CRC in adults under the age of 50 is not well-characterized in Alberta. Aims The aim of this study is to determine the incidence trends in colorectal cancer in adults under the age of 50 compared to those over the age of 50 in Alberta. Methods This cohort study determined the incidence of colorectal cancer in patients under the age of 50 compared to those over the age of 50 reported to the Alberta Cancer Registry (ACR) from 2010 to 2017. Annualized percentage changes (APCs) in incidence rate were estimated using the Joinpoint Regression Program 4.7.0.0 (Nation Cancer Institute). APCs in relative risk of CRC in different age groups compared to the 50–74 age group were also estimated in the same methodology. Results From 2010 to 2017 there were 17167 incident cases of colorectal cancer. Of these, 92% were in adults over the age of 50 while 8% were in those under the age of 50. For adults under the age of 50, incidence of CRC increased from 6 to 7.2 per 100,000 with a mean annual percentage change of 2.58% between 2010 and 2017. This is in contrast to adults over the age of 50, where the incidence of CRC decreased from 170 to 128 per 100,000 with a mean annual percentage change of -1.64% from 2010 to 2015 and -9.42% from 2015 to 2017. Compared to the 50–74 age group, the average relative risk of CRC in the 46–49 age group is 0.26 with an annual increase of 0.55%; while in the 40–45 age group the average relative risk of CRC is 0.15 with an annual increase of 2.61%. Conclusions Similar to national incidence trends, the incidence of CRC in adults under the age of 50 is increasing in Alberta. Although the overall incidence in this population is relatively low, suspicion of CRC in adults under age 50 can help prevent delays in diagnosis. Incidence of colorectal cancer in Alberta for adults under the age of 50 increased from 6 to 7.2 per 100,000 with a mean annual percentage change of 2.58% between 2010 and 2017. Funding Agencies None

591 Trend Analysis of Lower Gastrointestinal Bleeding 2002-2017: A Population-Based Study

INTRODUCTION: Lower Gastrointestinal Bleeding (LGIB) is defined as the bleeding originating from the gastrointestinal tract distal to the ligament of Treitz. LGIB is commonly caused by colonic diverticula, hemorrhoids, colorectal cancer, angiodysplasia, inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), and ischemic colitis. Although the diagnosis and management of LGIB have largely evolved with recent advancements, the incidence and trends of LGIB are unclear. We sought to look at the incidence and trends of LGIB 2002-2017 using a population level database. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of individuals ≥ 18 years who were hospitalized with LGIB was performed using a cloud database (IBM Explorys). Explorys aggregates de-identified data across 300 hospitals in the US. ICD 9 and ICD 10 diagnosis codes are mapped using SNOMED CT (Systematized Nomenclature of Medicine - Clinical Terms) hierarchy. Using SNOMED CT codes, Individuals who had at least one inpatient encounter with SNOMED CT diagnosis code of LGIB were identified. The rates of hospitalization and annual percentage change (APC) due to various etiologies of LGIB was analyzed between 2002-2017 were calculated using Excel, 2016. RESULTS: Among a cohort of 51,770,740 unique patients, 2.31% hospitalizations in 2017 were due to LGIB. The most common diagnosis associated with LGIB were hemorrhoids (34.56%) followed by diverticular disease (20.03%), IBD (3.23%), colorectal cancer (2.56%), vascular insufficiency including ischemic colitis (1.26%) and angiodysplasia (0.83%). The rates of hospitalization due to LGIB increased from 0.35% in 2002 to 2.31% in 2017 (Figure 1). The APC of LGIB based on etiology is depicted in Figure 3. There was no statistically significant difference when the mean APC of the overall cases of LGIB was compared to the mean APC of individual etiologies. CONCLUSION: The rates of lower gastrointestinal bleeding requiring hospitalization and inpatient management have significantly increased over the last 2 decades. Among LGIB hospitalizations, the proportion of hemorrhoids and CRC have decreased while that of diverticular disease and angiodysplasia have increased over 5-year intervals (Table 1). Patient awareness, better diagnostic techniques, and aging population probably contribute to the increase in the rates of LGIB.

National Trends in Colorectal Cancer Incidence Among Older and Younger Adults in Canada

Recent evidence has shown that although the incidence of colorectal cancer (CRC) is decreasing among older adults, rates have increased in adults younger than 50 years. Given that younger adults are typically classified as at low risk for the disease, this epidemiologic shift is cause for concern. To analyze Canadian national cancer incidence registries to determine incidence trends for CRC among older and younger adults, updated to 2015. This cohort study determined the incidence of CRC using data from the National Cancer Incidence Reporting System (1969-1992) and the Canadian Cancer Registry (1992-2015). All Canadians diagnosed with CRC from January 1, 1969, through December 31, 2015, were included in this study. Trends among men and women were examined separately and by age category (>50 vs <50 years). Birth cohort models were fit using 5-year groups starting in 1886, with 1936 as the reference cohort. Data were analyzed from May 13, 2018 to May 16, 2018. Annualized percentage changes and incidence rate ratios of CRC. From 1971 to 2015, 688 515 incident cases (52.9% women) of CRC were identified. Although the incidence of CRC has decreased in older men and women, rates among younger men and women have increased since 2006 and 2010, respectively. For women younger than 50 years, incidence has increased with a mean annual percentage change of 4.45% since 2010; for men younger than 50 years, a mean annual percentage change of 3.47% from 2006 through 2015. There was an association between CRC incidence and birth cohort, with more recent cohorts being at greater risk than those born earlier. For men, the risk of colorectal cancer in the youngest cohort is more than double that of the reference (incidence rate ratio, 2.57; 95% CI, 1.32-5.02). Incidence rate ratios were not significant for women (IRR, 2.12; 95% CI, 0.95-4.70) but increased in successively younger cohorts. This study found increasing incidence of colorectal cancer diagnoses among Canadian men and women younger than 50 years of age. This increase in incidence among a low-risk population calls for additional research on possible risk factors that may be affecting these younger cohorts. It appears that primary prevention should be the highest priority to reduce the number of younger adults developing CRC in the future.