Mean Annual Difference Research Articles

Midlife Residential Greenness and Late-Life Cognitive Decline among Nurses' Health Study Participants.

Midlife residential exposure to greenspace may slow cognitive decline by increasing opportunities for physical activity and social connection, restoring attention, or reducing stress or adverse environmental exposures. However, prospective studies on the association between greenness and cognitive decline are sparse. We investigated the prospective association between greenness at midlife and cognitive decline later in life. We explored effect measure modification by apolipoprotein E (APOE)-ɛ4 carrier status, neighborhood socioeconomic status (NSES), and rural/urban regions. The Nurses' Health Study () started in 1976 with married female nurses, 30-55 years of age, located across 11 US states. We examined 16,962 nurses who were enrolled in a substudy starting in 1995-2001 (mean ) through 2008. We assessed average summer residential greenness in a buffer using Landsat Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data from 1986-1994. Starting in 1995-2001, participants underwent up to four repeated measures of five cognitive tests. A global composite score was calculated as the average of all -scores for each task to evaluate overall cognition. We used linear mixed models to evaluate the association of average greenness exposure at midlife with cognitive decline in later life, adjusted for age, education, NSES, and depression. In adjusted models, higher midlife greenness exposure [per interquartile range (IQR): 0.18] was associated with a 0.004-unit (95% CI: 0.001, 0.006) slower annual rate of cognitive decline. For comparison, we found that 1 year of age is related to a mean annual difference for global cognition in the full sample; thus, higher midlife greenness appeared equivalent to slowing cognitive decline by months. In analysis exploring gene-environment interactions, we found that among APOE-ɛ4 carriers, an IQR increase in greenness was associated with a rate of decline that was slower by 0.01 units of global composite score (95% CI: 0.0004, 0.02). This association was attenuated among APOE-ɛ4 noncarriers. We did not observe associations between greenness and baseline or annual rate of cognitive decline of verbal memory. Higher midlife greenness exposure is associated with slower cognitive decline later in life. Future research is necessary to confirm these findings. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP13588.

Incremental health care expenditures associated with hypertension in South Korea.

Hypertension is a significant risk factor for cardiovascular disease and the number of deaths due to hypertension increases annually. The increasing healthcare costs of hypertension are a major societal and personal issue. By estimating the medical expenses incurred by patients with hypertension, this study aimed to provide information on the additional costs of hypertension and emphasize the importance of blood pressure management. Health Panel data from 2014 to 2018 were used to calculate incremental out-of-pocket healthcare costs associated with hypertension. First, we compared the mean annual differences in medical expenditure of people with and without hypertension each year. Second, we analyzed five-year panel data from 2014 to 2018 using random Generalized Least Squares. In a cross-sectional mean difference analysis, we found that as of 2018, individuals with hypertension spent an average of 545,489 won more per year on healthcare than those without hypertension. In a five-year panel data analysis, hypertension was associated with an average of 338,799 won in medical expenses per year for the same sex, age, income groups, number of cormorbility and other lifestyle factor. Hypertension incurs incremental costs in treating the condition and its complications. This study aimed to provide information on out-of-pocket healthcare costs associated with hypertension. We highlight the importance of ongoing disease management by discussing the financial burden of chronic diseases on individuals. Managing blood pressure at a young age can reduce healthcare costs throughout an individual's lifetime.

Intensive compared with less intensive blood pressure control to prevent adverse cardiac remodelling in children with chronic kidney disease (HOT-KID): a parallel-group, open-label, multicentre, randomised, controlled trial

Optimal target blood pressure to reduce adverse cardiac remodelling in children with chronic kidney disease is uncertain. We hypothesised that lower blood pressure would reduce adverse cardiac remodelling. HOT-KID, a parallel-group, open-label, multicentre, randomised, controlled trial, was done in 14 clinical centres across England and Scotland. We included children aged 2-15 years with stage 1-4 chronic kidney disease-ie, an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) higher than 15 mL/min per 1·73 m2-and who could be followed up for 2 years. Children on antihypertensive medication were eligible as long as it could be changed to angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors or angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) if they were not already receiving these therapies. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1) to standard treatment (auscultatory office systolic blood pressure target between the 50th and 75th percentiles) or intensive treatment (systolic target <40th percentile) by the chief investigator using a rapid, secure, web-based randomisation system. ACE inhibitors or ARBs were used as first-line agents, with the dose titrated every 2-4 weeks to achieve the target blood pressure levels. The primary outcome was mean annual difference in left ventricular mass index (LVMI) by echocardiography measured by a masked observer and was assessed in the intention-to-treat population, defined as all the children who underwent randomisation irrespective of the blood pressure reached. Secondary and safety outcomes were the differences between groups in mean left ventricular relative wall thickness, renal function, and adverse effects and were also assessed in the intention-to-treat population. This trial is registered with ISRCTN, ISRCTN25006406. Between Oct 30, 2012, and Jan 5, 2017, 64 participants were randomly assigned to the intensive treatment group and 60 to the standard treatment group (median age of participants was 10·0 years [IQR 6·8-12·6], 69 [56%] were male and 107 [86%] were of white ethnicity). Median follow-up was 38·7 months (IQR 28·1-52·2). Blood pressure was lower in the intensive treatment group compared with standard treatment group (mean systolic pressure lower by 4 mm Hg, p=0·0012) but in both groups was close to the 50th percentile. The mean annual reduction in LVMI was similar for intensive and standard treatments (-1·9 g/m2·7 [95% CI -2·4 to -1·3] vs -1·2 g/m2·7 [-1·5 to 0·8], with a treatment effect of -0·7 g/m2·7 [95% CI -1·9 to 2·6] per year; p=0·76) and mean value in both groups at the end of follow-up within the normal range. At baseline, elevated relative wall thickness was more marked than increased LVMI and a reduction in relative wall thickness was greater for the intensive treatment group than for the standard treatment group (-0·010 [95% CI 0·015 to -0·006] vs -0·004 [-0·008 to 0·001], treatment effect -0·020 [95% CI -0·039 to -0·009] per year, p=0·0019). Six (5%) participants reached end-stage kidney disease (ie, an eGFR of <15 mL/min per 1·73 m2; three in each group) during the course of the study. The risk difference between treatment groups was 0·02 (95% CI -0·15 to 0·19, p=0·82) for overall adverse events and 0·07 (-0·05 to 0·19, p=0·25) for serious adverse events. Intensive treatment was not associated with worse renal outcomes or greater adverse effects than standard treatment. These results suggest that cardiac remodelling in children with chronic kidney disease is related to blood pressure control and that a target office systolic blood pressure at the 50th percentile is close to the optimal target for preventing increased left ventricular mass. British Heart Foundation.

Resistance potential of soil bacterial communities along a biodiversity gradient in forest ecosystems.

Higher biodiversity is often assumed to be a more desirable scenario for maintaining the functioning of ecosystems, but whether species-richer communities are also more disturbance-tolerant remains controversial. In this study, we investigated the bacterial communities based on 472 soil samples from 28 forests across China with associated edaphic and climatic properties. We developed two indexes (i.e., community mean tolerance breadth [CMTB] and community mean response asynchrony [CMRA]) to explore the relationship between diversity and community resistance potential. Moreover, we examined this resistance potential along the climatic and latitudinal gradients. We revealed that CMTB was significantly and negatively related to species richness, resulting from the changes in balance between relative abundances of putative specialists and generalists. In comparison, we found a unimodal relationship between CMRA and richness, suggesting that higher biodiversity might not always lead to higher community resistance. Moreover, our results showed differential local patterns along latitude. In particular, local patterns in the northern region mainly followed general relationships rather than those for the southern forests, which may be attributed to the differences in annual means and annual variations of climate conditions. Our findings highlight that the community resistance potential depends on the composition of diverse species with differential environmental tolerance and responses. This study provides a new, testable evaluation by considering tolerance breadth and response asynchrony at the community level, which will be helpful in assessing the influence of disturbance under rapid shifts in biodiversity and species composition as a result of global environmental change.

Association of Greenspace Exposure at Midlife with Cognitive Decline Later in Life in a Study of US Women

Background and aim: Greenspace may slow cognitive decline by increasing opportunities for physical activity and social connection or reducing stress or air pollution. However, studies on the association between greenspace and cognitive decline are sparse. We investigated the prospective association between greenspace at midlife and cognitive decline later in life. Methods: Using data from the US-based Nurses’ Health Study (mean age=61y), we assessed residential greenspace in a 270m buffer as the cumulative average from 1986 to 1994 using Landsat Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data. We examined 16,352 women who were enrolled in a substudy starting in 1995-2001 (74y) through 2008. Participants underwent up to four repeated measures of five cognitive tests. A global composite score was calculated as the average of all z-scores for each task to evaluate overall cognitive functioning. We evaluated the association between greenspace and subsequent cognitive decline using linear mixed models adjusted for age, education, neighborhood socioeconomic status, and depression. Results: In fully adjusted models, those living in the highest quintile of greenspace had an annual slope of decline that was slower by 0.01 units of the global composite score (95%CI 0.00001, 0.012) compared to those in the lowest quintile. To help interpret this estimate, we find that one year of age is related to a -0.01 unit mean annual difference for global cognition; thus, more greenspace appeared equivalent to slowing cognitive aging by one year. We found similar associations for the Telephone Interview for Cognitive Status (TICS); participants living in the highest greenspace quintile had an annual rate of decline that was slower by 0.04 units in the TICS score (95%CI 0.01, 0.07) compared to those in the lowest quintile. Conclusions: Higher greenspace exposure in early adulthood is associated with a slower rate of cognitive decline later in life in this cohort of US women.

Comparison of Multi-Satellite Precipitation Data from the Global Precipitation Measurement Mission and Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission Datasets: Seasonal and Diurnal Cycles

A comparison was made between seasonal and diurnal variations in the Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG) version 06B Final run and TRMM Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) 3B42 version 7 products from April 2014 to March 2019. As for earlier IMERG versions, systematic differences between IMERG version 06B precipitation and TMPA precipitation data were larger over the oceans than over land. Systematic annual mean differences between the IMERG and TMPA data over the oceans were smaller for IMERG version 06B than for earlier IMERG versions, possibly because of updated calibration processes. The mean differences between the IMERG version 06B and TMPA data for tropical oceans were relatively smtropical Pacific for all four seasons were not. The diurnal amplitudes of the IMERG were smaller than those of the TMPA over most continents, and the differences increased with mean diurnal amplitudes. The diurnal amplitudes of the IMERG were larger than those of the TMPA data over the oceans. The differences between the phases of the precipitation diurnal harmonics in the IMERG and TMPA datasets varied widely in all four seasons, but the mean phases were almost the same over both the oceans and the land. The sources of the differences in diurnal precipitation amplitudes in the Bay of Bengal and along the west coast of Central America, which showed large diurnal ranges and rather different diurnal amplitudes, were assessed. Differences in seasonal means caused differences in diurnal amplitudes in the Bay of Bengal, but for Central America, differences in diurnal amplitudes were associated with seasonal mean diurnal amplitudes.

Work Loss in Patients With Celiac Disease: A Population-based Longitudinal Study

Celiac disease (CD) affects around 1% of the population worldwide. Data on work disability in patients with CD remain scarce. We estimated work loss in patients with CD, including its temporal relationship to diagnosis. Through biopsy reports from Sweden's 28 pathology departments, we identified 16,005 working-aged patients with prevalent CD (villus atrophy) as of January 1, 2015, and 4936 incident patients diagnosed with CD in 2008 to 2015. Each patient was matched to up to 5 general-population comparators. Using nationwide social insurance registers, we retrieved prospectively recorded data on compensation for sick leave and disability leave to assess work loss in patients and comparators. In 2015, patients with prevalent CD had a mean of 42.5 lost work days as compared with 28.6 in comparators (mean difference, 14.7; 95% confidence interval [CI], 13.2-16.2), corresponding to a relative increase of 49%. More than one-half of the work loss (60.1%) in patients with CD was derived from a small subgroup (7%), whereas 75.4% had no work loss. Among incident patients, the annual mean difference between patients and comparators was 8.0 days (range, 5.4-10.6 days) of lost work 5 years before CD diagnosis, which grew to 13.7 days (range, 9.1-18.3 days) 5 years after diagnosis. No difference in work loss was observed between patients with or without mucosal healing at follow-up. Patients with CD lost more work days than comparators before their diagnosis, and this loss increased after diagnosis. Identifying patients with an increased risk of work loss may serve as a target to mitigate work disability, and thereby reduce work loss, in patients with CD.

Welfare Issues on Israeli Dairy Farms: Attitudes and Awareness of Farm Workers and Veterinary Practitioners.

Simple SummaryAnimal welfare science embraces all factors that might affect the physical and emotional state of the animal, its ability to cope, and its overall quality of life. In recent years, awareness of farm animal welfare has increased among veterinary practitioners—a major professional figure influencing a farm’s routine, farm workers, consumers, and the general public. In particular, the farm worker’s knowledge of animal welfare is an essential component of the rearing system. The aim of this study was to examine attitudes toward and awareness of select animal welfare issues among farm workers and practitioners. A survey was performed based on anonymous questionnaires filled out by dairy farm workers and veterinary practitioners. The results demonstrated that farm workers’ enjoyment of their work is of great importance, as is their cows’ welfare. The survey showed the farm workers’ awareness of their influence on the cow during milking, the effects of stress on milk production, and the possible effect of human behavior on heifers and cows. The main areas where animal welfare might be improved were farmers’ awareness of learning, memory, and pain masking in cattle, and knowledge transfer from veterinary practitioners to the farm workers. The survey answers further emphasized the crucial importance of communication and understanding between farm workers and their practitioners.Attitudes toward practical dairy cow welfare issues were evaluated based on a questionnaire answered by 500 dairy farm workers and 27 veterinary practitioners. Primarily, the effect of demographic characteristics on attitudes toward cattle welfare was tested. Professionally, five themes were identified: effect of welfare awareness on productivity, knowledge of cattle’s senses and social structure, effects of man–animal interactions on milk yield, pain perception and prevention, and knowledge transfer from veterinary practitioners to farm workers. Farms with a higher welfare awareness score also had higher annual milk yield, with an annual mean difference of 1000 L of milk per cow between farms with higher and lower awareness scores. Veterinary practitioners showed high awareness of cows’ social structure, senses, and pain perception. Farm workers were aware of the influence of man–animal interactions during milking and stress effects on milk yield, and the possible effect of man’s behavior on heifers and cows. Practitioners and farm workers had different views regarding pain perception, mostly involving mutilation procedures. All veterinary practitioners advocated the use of pain alleviation in painful procedures, but only some of them instructed the farm workers to administer it. The survey results emphasize the variation in welfare knowledge and practical applications across farms, and the interest of both the animals and their managers to improve applied knowledge of best practice.

Evaluation of Statistical Downscaling Methods for Simulating Daily Precipitation Distribution, Frequency, and Temporal Sequence

HighlightsNine statistical downscaling methods from three downscaling categories were evaluated.Weather generator-based methods had advantages in simulating non-stationary precipitation.Differences in downscaling performance were smaller within each category than between categories.The performance of each downscaling method varied with climate conditions.Abstract. Spatial discrepancy between global climate model (GCM) projections and the climate data input required by hydrological models is a major limitation for assessing the impact of climate change on soil erosion and crop production at local scales. Statistical downscaling techniques are widely used to correct biases of GCM projections. The objective of this study was to evaluate the ability of nine statistical downscaling methods from three available statistical downscaling categories to simulate daily precipitation distribution, frequency, and temporal sequence at four Oklahoma weather stations representing arid to humid climate regions. The three downscaling categories included perfect prognosis (PP), model output statistics (MOS), and stochastic weather generator (SWG). To minimize the effect of GCM projection error on downscaling quality, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Reanalysis 1 data at a 2.5° grid spacing (treated as observed grid data) were downscaled to the four weather stations (representing arid, semi-arid, sub humid, and humid regions) using the nine downscaling methods. The station observations were divided into calibration and validation periods in a way that maximized the differences in annual precipitation means between the two periods for assessing the ability of each method in downscaling non-stationary climate changes. All methods were ranked with three metrics (Euclidean distance, sum of absolute relative error, and absolute error) for their ability in simulating precipitation amounts at daily, monthly, yearly, and annual maximum scales. After eliminating the poorest two performers in simulating precipitation mean, distribution, frequency, and temporal sequence, the top four remaining methods in ascending order were Distribution-based Bias Correction (DBC), Generator for Point Climate Change (GPCC), SYNthetic weather generaTOR (SYNTOR), and LOCal Intensity scaling (LOCI). DBC and LOCI are bias-correction methods, and GPCC and SYNTOR are generator-based methods. The differences in performances among the downscaling methods were smaller within each downscaling category than between the categories. The performance of each method varied with the climate conditions of each station. Overall results indicated that the SWG methods had certain advantages in simulating daily precipitation distribution, frequency, and temporal sequence for non-stationary climate changes. Keywords: Climate change, Climate downscaling, Downscaling method evaluation, Statistical downscaling.

Digitization of Astronegatives of the Pulkovo Glass Library: Positions of Saturn’s Major Satellites in the Period 1972–1982 in the Gaia DR2 System

We present the results of the re-reduction of Pulkovo photographic plates with images of Saturn’s major satellites in the Gaia DR2 catalog system (169 plates, 3007 individual positions). Astronegatives were taken with the 26-inch refractor at the Pulkovo Observatory between 1972 and 1982. The intrinsic accuracy of measurement of astronegatives using the Pulkovo MDD system was 1 μm (20 mas on the 26-inch refractor scale). The mean values of O–C differences when compared with the most up-to-date ephemerides vary within ±20 mas. The errors of the annual mean differences are usually better than 20 mas. There is a close agreement between the presented Pulkovo series and the results of the re-reduction of similar USNO observations (mean seasonal differences are less than 50 mas in modulus). Considering that different implementations of modern ephemerides give satellite positions that vary within ±50 mas for the time interval under study, we can conclude that the Pulkovo series is highly informative for improving the motion models of the major satellites of Saturn.

Effects of Different Urbanization Levels on Land Surface Temperature Change: Taking Tokyo and Shanghai for Example

The influence of different urbanization levels on land surface temperature (LST) has attracted extensive attention. Though both are world megacities, Shanghai and Tokyo have gone through different urbanization processes that urban sprawl characterized by impervious surfaces was more notable in Shanghai than in Tokyo over the past years. Here, annual and seasonal mean LST in daytime (LSTday), in nighttime (LSTnight), and LSTdiff (annual and seasonal mean difference of LST in daytime and nighttime) were extracted from the MODIS LST product, MYD11A2 006, for 9 typical sites in Shanghai and Tokyo from 2003 to 2018, respectively. Then the effects of the urbanization levels were analyzed through Mann-Kendall statistics and Sen’s slope estimator. The trends of change in LSTday and LSTdiff for most sites in Shanghai, an urbanizing region, rose. In addition, there was no obvious regularity when considering seasonal factors, which could be due to the increasing fragmentized landscapes and scattered water bodies produced by urbanization. By comparison, the change in LST in Tokyo, a post-urbanizing region, was regular, especially in the spring. In other seasons, there was no obvious trend in temperature change regardless of whether the land cover was impervious surface or mountain forest. On the whole, vegetation cover and water bodies can mitigate the urban heat island (UHI) effect in urban regions. For more scientific urban planning, further analysis about the effect of urbanization on LST should focus on the compound stress from climate change and urbanization.

Optimizing a dynamic fossil fuel CO&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;2&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt; emission model with CTDAS (CarbonTracker Data Assimilation Shell, v1.0) for an urban area using atmospheric observations of CO&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;2&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt;, CO, NO&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;&amp;lt;i&amp;gt;x&amp;lt;/i&amp;gt;&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt;, and SO&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;2&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt;

Abstract. We present a modelling framework for fossil fuel CO2 emissions in an urban environment, which allows constraints from emission inventories to be combined with atmospheric observations of CO2 and its co-emitted species CO, NOx, and SO2. Rather than a static assignment of average emission rates to each unit area of the urban domain, the fossil fuel emissions we use are dynamic: they vary in time and space in relation to data that describe or approximate the activity within a sector, such as traffic density, power demand, 2 m temperature (as proxy for heating demand), and sunlight and wind speed (as proxies for renewable energy supply). Through inverse modelling, we optimize the relationships between these activity data and the resulting emissions of all species within the dynamic fossil fuel emission model, based on atmospheric mole fraction observations. The advantage of this novel approach is that the optimized parameters (emission factors and emission ratios, N=44) in this dynamic emission model (a) vary much less over space and time, (b) allow for a physical interpretation of mean and uncertainty, and (c) have better defined uncertainties and covariance structure. This makes them more suited to extrapolate, optimize, and interpret than the gridded emissions themselves. The merits of this approach are investigated using a pseudo-observation-based ensemble Kalman filter inversion set-up for the Dutch Rijnmond area at 1 km×1 km resolution. We find that the fossil fuel emission model approximates the gridded emissions well (annual mean differences &lt;2 %, hourly temporal r2=0.21–0.95), while reported errors in the underlying parameters allow a full covariance structure to be created readily. Propagating this error structure into atmospheric mole fractions shows a strong dominance of a few large sectors and a few dominant uncertainties, most notably the emission ratios of the various gases considered. If the prior emission ratios are either sufficiently well-known or well constrained from a dense observation network, we find that including observations of co-emitted species improves our ability to estimate emissions per sector relative to using CO2 mole fractions only. Nevertheless, the total CO2 emissions can be well constrained with CO2 as the only tracer in the inversion. Because some sectors are sampled only sparsely over a day, we find that propagating solutions from day-to-day leads to largest uncertainty reduction and smallest CO2 residuals over the 14 consecutive days considered. Although we can technically estimate the temporal distribution of some emission categories like shipping separate from their total magnitude, the controlling parameters are difficult to distinguish. Overall, we conclude that our new system looks promising for application in verification studies, provided that reliable urban atmospheric transport fields and reasonable a priori emission ratios for CO2 and its co-emitted species can be produced.

Aspirin and other non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs for the prevention of dementia.

Aspirin and other non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs for the prevention of dementia.

Investigation of the global methane budget over 1980–2017 using GFDL-AM4.1

Abstract. Changes in atmospheric methane abundance have implications for both chemistry and climate as methane is both a strong greenhouse gas and an important precursor for tropospheric ozone. A better understanding of the drivers of trends and variability in methane abundance over the recent past is therefore critical for building confidence in projections of future methane levels. In this work, the representation of methane in the atmospheric chemistry model AM4.1 is improved by optimizing total methane emissions (to an annual mean of 580±34 Tg yr−1) to match surface observations over 1980–2017. The simulations with optimized global emissions are in general able to capture the observed trend, variability, seasonal cycle, and latitudinal gradient of methane. Simulations with different emission adjustments suggest that increases in methane emissions (mainly from agriculture, energy, and waste sectors) balanced by increases in methane sinks (mainly due to increases in OH levels) lead to methane stabilization (with an imbalance of 5 Tg yr−1) during 1999–2006 and that increases in methane emissions (mainly from agriculture, energy, and waste sectors) combined with little change in sinks (despite small decreases in OH levels) during 2007–2012 lead to renewed growth in methane (with an imbalance of 14 Tg yr−1 for 2007–2017). Compared to 1999–2006, both methane emissions and sinks are greater (by 31 and 22 Tg yr−1, respectively) during 2007–2017. Our tagged tracer analysis indicates that anthropogenic sources (such as agriculture, energy, and waste sectors) are more likely major contributors to the renewed growth in methane after 2006. A sharp increase in wetland emissions (a likely scenario) with a concomitant sharp decrease in anthropogenic emissions (a less likely scenario), would be required starting in 2006 to drive the methane growth by wetland tracer. Simulations with varying OH levels indicate that a 1 % change in OH levels could lead to an annual mean difference of ∼4 Tg yr−1 in the optimized emissions and a 0.08-year difference in the estimated tropospheric methane lifetime. Continued increases in methane emissions along with decreases in tropospheric OH concentrations during 2008–2015 prolong methane's lifetime and therefore amplify the response of methane concentrations to emission changes. Uncertainties still exist in the partitioning of emissions among individual sources and regions.

Effect of Satellite Temporal Resolution on Long-Term Suspended Particulate Matter in Inland Lakes

The temporal resolution of satellite determines how well remote sensing products represent changes in the lake environments and influences the practical applications by end-users. Here, a resampling method was used to reproduce the suspended particulate matter (SPM) dataset in 43 large lakes (&gt;50 km2) on the eastern China plain during 2003–2017 at different temporal resolutions using MODIS Aqua (MODISA) based on Google Earth Engine platform, then to address the impact of temporal resolution on the long-term SPM dataset. Differences between the MODISA-derived and reproduced SPM dataset at longer temporal resolution were higher in the areas with large water dynamics. The spatial and temporal distributions of the differences were driven by unfavorable observation environments during satellite overpasses such as high cloud cover, and rapid changes in water quality, such as water inundation, algae blooms, and macrophytes. Furthermore, the annual mean difference in SPM ranged from 5–10% when the temporal difference was less than 10 d, and the differences in summer and autumn were higher than that of other seasons and surpassed 20% when the temporal resolution was more than 16 d. To assure that difference were less than 10% for long-term satellite-derived SPM datasets, the minimal requirement of temporal resolution should be within 5 d for most of the inland lakes and 3 d for lakes with large changes in water quality. This research can be used to not only evaluate the reliability of historically remote sensing products but also provide a reference for planning field campaigns and applying of high spatial resolution satellite missions to monitor aquatic systems in the future.

Reconstruction of MODIS Land Surface Temperature Products Based on Multi-Temporal Information

Land surface temperature (LST) products derived from the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor are one of the most important data sources used to research land surface energy and water balance at regional and global scales. However, MODIS data are severely contaminated by cloud cover, which limits the applications of LST products. In this paper, based on the spatio-temporal autocorrelation of land surface variables, a reconstruction algorithm depending on the correlations between spatial pixels in multiple time phases from available MODIS LST data is developed to reconstruct clear-sky LST values for missing pixels. Considering the impacts of correlation and bias between predictors and reconstructed data on the modeling error, the known data in the reconstructed time phase are combined with the data temporally nearest to them as predictor variables to establish their temporal relationships with the reconstructed data. The reconstructed results are validated by a series of evaluation indices. The average correlation coefficient between the reconstructed results and ground-based observations is 0.87, showing high temporal change accuracy. The difference in Moran’s I, representing spatial structure characteristics between the known and reconstructed data, is 0.03 on average, indicating a slight loss of spatial accuracy. The average reconstruction rate is approximately 87.0%. The modeling error, as part of the reconstruction error, is only 1.40 K on average and accounts for 5.0% of the total error. If the product and modeling errors are removed, the residual error represents approximately 3.5 K and 5.6 K of the annual mean difference between the cloudy and cloudless LST at night and during the day, respectively. In addition, different reconstruction cases are demonstrated using various predictor data, including many combinations of multi-temporal MODIS LST data, the microwave brightness temperature, and the combination of the normalized difference vegetation index and terrain data. Comparisons among cases show that the known MODIS LST data are more reliable as predictor variables and that the data combination advocated in this paper is optimal.

Closing the vaccination coverage gap in New South Wales: the Aboriginal Immunisation Healthcare Worker Program.

To assess vaccination coverage and timeliness among Indigenous and non-Indigenous children in New South Wales and the rest of Australia, with a particular focus on changes in the vaccination coverage gaps after the introduction of the Aboriginal Immunisation Healthcare Worker (AIHCW) Program in NSW in 2012. Cross-sectional analysis of Australian Immunisation Register data (2008-2016). Annual estimates of full vaccination coverage at 9, 15 and 51 months of age for Indigenous and non-Indigenous children in NSW and the rest of Australia; differences in coverage between Indigenous and non-Indigenous children at each milestone. The proportion of Indigenous and non-Indigenous children classified as fully vaccinated at 9, 15, and 51 months increased significantly in both NSW and the rest of Australia after the introduction of the AIHCW Program. The mean annual difference in full vaccination coverage between Indigenous and non-Indigenous children in NSW aged 9 months declined from 6.6 (95% CI, 5.2-8.0) during 2008-2011 to 3.7 percentage points (95% CI, 2.5-4.8) during 2012-2016; for those aged 15 months it declined from 4.6 (95% CI, 3.1-6.0) to 2.2 percentage points (95% CI, 1.0-3.4), and for those aged 51 months it declined from 8.5 (95% CI, 7.2-9.8) to 0.6 percentage points (95% CI, -0.6 to 1.8). Reductions in the differences in coverage were not as marked in the rest of Australia. In 2016, there was no statistically significant difference in coverage at any of the three milestones in NSW: at 9 months the difference was 1.6 percentage points (95% CI, -1.0 to 4.1); at 15 months, 0.4 percentage points (95% CI, -2.2 to 2.9); and at 51 months, -1.8 percentage points (95% CI, -4.4 to 0.8). Our findings suggest that a dedicated program can help overcome barriers to timely vaccination and significantly improve timely vaccination rates in Indigenous Australian children.

Difference between near-surface air, land surface and ground surface temperatures and their influences on the frozen ground on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Surface temperature is critical for the simulation of climate change impacts on the ecology, environment, and particularly permafrost in the cryosphere. Virtually, surface temperatures are different in the near-surface air temperature (Ta) measured at a screen-height of 1.5–2m, the land surface temperature (LST) on the top canopy layer, and the ground surface temperature (GST) 0–5 cm beneath the surface cover. However, not enough attention has been concentrated on the difference in these surface temperatures. This study aims at quantifying the distinction of surface temperatures by the comparisons and numerical simulations of observational field data collected in a discontinuous permafrost region on the northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). We compared the hourly, seasonal and yearly differences between Ta, LST, GST, and ground temperatures, as well as the freezing and thawing indices, the N-factors, and the surface and thermal offsets derived from these temperatures. The results showed that the peak hourly LST was reached earliest, closely followed by the hourly Ta. Mean annual LST (MALST) was moderately comparable to mean annual Ta (MAAT), and both were lower than mean annual GST (MAGST). Surface offsets (MAGST-MAAT) were all within 3.5 °C, which are somewhat consistent with other parts of the QTP but smaller than those in the Arctic and Subarctic regions with dense vegetation and thick, long-duration snow cover. Thermal offsets, the mean annual differences between the ground surface and the permafrost surface, were within −0.3°C, and one site was even reversed, which may be relevant to equally thawed to frozen thermal conductivities of the soils. Even with identical Ta (comparable to MAAT of −3.27 and −3.17°C), the freezing and thawing processes of the active layer were distinctly different, due to the complex influence of surface characteristics and soil textures. Furthermore, we employed the Geophysical Institute Permafrost Lab (GIPL) model to numerically simulate the dynamics of ground temperature driven by Ta, LST, and GST, respectively. Simulated results demonstrated that GST was a reliable driving indicator for the thermal regime of frozen ground, even if no thermal effects of surface characteristics were taken into account. However, great biases of mean annual ground temperatures, being as large as 3°C, were induced on the basis of simulations with LST and Ta when the thermal effect of surface characteristics was neglected. We conclude that quantitative calculation of the thermal effect of surface characteristics on GST is indispensable for the permafrost simulations based on the Ta datasets and the LST products that derived from thermal infrared remote sensing.

Quantifying the Uncertainties of Reanalyzed Arctic Cloud and Radiation Properties Using Satellite Surface Observations

Abstract Reanalyses have proven to be convenient tools for studying the Arctic climate system, but their uncertainties should first be identified. In this study, five reanalyses (JRA-55, 20CRv2c, CFSR, ERA-Interim, and MERRA-2) are compared with NASA CERES–MODIS (CM)-derived cloud fractions (CFs), cloud water paths (CWPs), top-of-atmosphere (TOA) and surface longwave (LW) and shortwave (SW) radiative fluxes over the Arctic (70°–90°N) over the period of 2000–12, and CloudSat–CALIPSO (CC)-derived CFs from 2006 to 2010. The monthly mean CFs in all reanalyses except JRA-55 are close to or slightly higher than the CC-derived CFs from May to September. However, wintertime CF cannot be confidently evaluated until instrument simulators are implemented in reanalysis products. The comparison between CM and CC CFs indicates that CM-derived CFs are reliable in summer but not in winter. Although the reanalysis CWPs follow the general seasonal variations of CM CWPs, their annual means are only half or even less than the CM-retrieved CWPs (126 g m−2). The annual mean differences in TOA and surface SW and LW fluxes between CERES EBAF and reanalyses are less than 6 W m−2 for TOA radiative fluxes and 16 W m−2 for surface radiative fluxes. All reanalyses show positive biases along the northern and eastern coasts of Greenland as a result of model elevation biases or possible CM clear-sky retrieval issues. The correlations between the reanalyses and CERES satellite retrievals indicate that all five reanalyses estimate radiative fluxes better than cloud properties, and MERRA-2 and JRA-55 exhibit comparatively higher correlations for Arctic cloud and radiation properties.

The effect of proximal anastomosis on the expansion rate of a dilated ascending aorta in coronary artery bypass surgery: a prospective study.

SummaryBackground:This study was designed to determine the short- and long-term effects of proximal aortic anastomosis, performed during isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) in patients with dilatation of the ascending aorta who did not require surgical intervention.Methods:The study was performed on 192 (38 female and 160 male patients; mean age, 62.1 ± 9.2 years; range, 42–80 years) patients with dilatation of the ascending aorta who underwent CABG surgery between 1 June 2006 and 31 May 2014. In group 1 (n = 114), the saphenous vein and left internal mammarian artery grafts were used, and proximal anastomosis was performed on the ascending aorta. In group 2 (n = 78), left and right internal mammarian artery grafts were used, and proximal aortic anastomosis was not performed. Pre-operatively and in the first and third years postoperatively, the ascending aortic diameter was measured and recorded using transthoracic echocardiography at four different regions (annulus, sinus of Valsalva, sinotubular junction and tubular aorta).Results:A statistically significant difference was found between the groups for the number of grafts used and the duration of aortic cross-clamping and cardiopulmonary bypass. No significant intergroup difference was seen for the mean diameter of the ascending aorta (p > 0.05). Annual changes in the aortic diameter were found to be extremely significantly different in both groups (p = 0.0001). Mean values of the aortic diameter at the level of the sinotubular junction and tubular ascending aorta, mean aortic diameters (p = 0.002 and p = 0.0001, respectively), annual increase in diameter (p = 0.0001 and p = 0.0001, respectively), and mean annual difference in diameter (p = 0.0001 and p = 0.0001, respectively) at one and three years postoperatively were statistically significantly different between the groups.Conclusion:In patients with ascending aortic dilatation who did not require surgical intervention and who had proximal anastomosis of the ascending aorta and underwent only CABG, we detected statistically significant increases in the diameter of the sinotubular junction and tubular aorta up to three years postoperatively.