Mean Absolute Bias Research Articles

Using QALYs as an Outcome for Assessing Global Prediction Accuracy in Diabetes Simulation Models.

(1) To demonstrate the use of quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) as an outcome measure for comparing performance between simulation models and identifying the most accurate model for economic evaluation and health technology assessment. QALYs relate directly to decision making and combine mortality and diverse clinical events into a single measure using evidence-based weights that reflect population preferences. (2) To explore the usefulness of Q2, the proportional reduction in error, as a model performance metric and compare it with other metrics: mean squared error (MSE), mean absolute error, bias (mean residual), and R2. We simulated all EXSCEL trial participants (N = 14,729) using the UK Prospective Diabetes Study Outcomes Model software versions 1 (UKPDS-OM1) and 2 (UKPDS-OM2). The EXSCEL trial compared once-weekly exenatide with placebo (median 3.2-y follow-up). Default UKPDS-OM2 utilities were used to estimate undiscounted QALYs over the trial period based on the observed events and survival. These were compared with the QALYs predicted by UKPDS-OM1/2 for the same period. UKPDS-OM2 predicted patients' QALYs more accurately than UKPDS-OM1 did (MSE: 0.210 v. 0.253; Q2: 0.822 v. 0.786). UKPDS-OM2 underestimated QALYs by an average of 0.127 versus 0.150 for UKPDS-OM1. UKPDS-OM2 predictions were more accurate for mortality, myocardial infarction, and stroke, whereas UKPDS-OM1 better predicted blindness and heart disease. Q2 facilitated comparisons between subgroups and (unlike R2) was lower for biased predictors. Q2 for QALYs was useful for comparing global prediction accuracy (across all clinical events) of diabetes models. It could be used for model registries, choosing between simulation models for economic evaluation and evaluating the impact of recalibration. Similar methods could be used in other disease areas. Diabetes simulation models are currently validated by examining their ability to predict the incidence of individual events (e.g., myocardial infarction, stroke, amputation) or composite events (e.g., first major adverse cardiovascular event).We introduce Q2, the proportional reduction in error, as a measure that may be useful for evaluating and comparing the prediction accuracy of econometric or simulation models.We propose using the Q2 or mean squared error for QALYs as global measures of model prediction accuracy when comparing diabetes models' performance for health technology assessment; these can be used to select the most accurate simulation model for economic evaluation and to evaluate the impact of model recalibration in diabetes or other conditions.

Application of meta-heuristic hybrid models in estimating the average air temperature of Caspian sea coast of Iran

The rise of industrial societies leads to higher greenhouse gas emissions, profoundly affecting the climate in coastal regions. Consequently, air temperature readings from standard meteorological stations are key indicators of the Earth's environmental condition. Therefore, accurate estimation of daily temperature in each region is one of the important prerequisites for agricultural planning as well as water resources management and drought prevention, which can be done in different ways such as experimental, semi-experimental and intelligent models. In this research, WSVR, AIG-SVR, GWO-SVR and BAT-SVR hybrid models were investigated and evaluated in order to estimate the average daily air temperature on the shores of the Caspian Sea located in the north of Iran. For modeling, weather station data from Babolsar meteorological station located in Mazandaran province were used. During the water year from 2012 to 2022, daily parameters including relative humidity, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, wind speed, and evaporation were selected as network inputs, with the average daily air temperature as the network output. To assess and compare model performances, several criteria were employed including correlation coefficient, root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and percentage bias. Comparative analysis revealed that the WSVR model surpassed other models, demonstrating the highest correlation coefficient (0.992), lowest RMSE (0.096), and lowest MAE (0.042). The highest Nash Sutcliffe criterion (0.996) and bias percentage (0.001) were prioritized in the validation stage.

Benchmark of estimated solar irradiance data at high latitude locations

Estimated solar irradiances from CAMS, PVGIS SARAH-2, Solargis, Meteonorm, PVGIS ERA5, and NASA POWER are benchmarked against measurements conducted at 34 ground stations in Norway at latitudes between 58 and 76°N. We find that the data products that mainly rely on high-resolution, geostationary satellite images, i.e., CAMS, PVGIS SARAH-2, and Solargis, have higher accuracy with lower relative Mean Absolute Error (rMAE) and relative Mean Bias Error. By dividing the stations in distinct categories, such as above 65°N, snow-affected and horizon-shaded, challenges with irradiance estimation that are common in Norway and at high latitudes in general are highlighted and discussed. The accuracy of the data products is dependent on latitude, and by excluding stations above 65°N, the median rMAE of the different data products improves 3.2 – 9.4 %abs compared to the median rMAE when including all stations, depending on data product. Similarly, by excluding snow-affected stations, the median rMAE improves 1.9 – 8.1 %abs, depending on data product. The improvement in rMAE by excluding snow-affected stations is partially related to the difficulty of separating snow on the ground from cloud cover in satellite images. This difficulty is illustrated by concrete examples of irradiance time series from clear sky days when the ground is covered in snow. Although the performance of the data products is dependent on the categorization of stations, i.e., latitude, snow conditions, and local topography, the relative performance between the products is maintained regardless of sub-division.

Urban transport emission prediction analysis through machine learning and deep learning techniques

About 6.6 million people die every year from air pollution diseases globally. Transportation industry is considered one of the leading contributors in air pollution. This research utilizes deep learning and machine learning techniques to predict China’s transport-related CO2 emissions and energy needs by utilizing variables like population, car kilometers, year and GDP per capita. The outcomes have been analyzed using six analytical measures: determination coefficient, RMSE, relative RMSE, mean absolute percentage error, mean bias error and mean absolute bias error. Findings indicate that yearly increase in transport-related CO2 emissions in China will be 3.66%, and transport energy consumption will increase by 3.8%. Energy consumption and transport CO2 emissions are projected to rise by roughly 3.5 times by 2050 as compared to current levels. Therefore, government should re-evaluate its energy investment plans for the future and institute new rules, and standards regarding transport-related energy consumption and pollution reduction.

Analytical evaluation of the automated interleukin-6 assay on the Roche cobas e602 analyzer.

Interleukin-6 (IL-6) is a proinflammatory cytokine that is associated with many inflammatory diseases. This validation study evaluates the automated Roche Elecsys IL-6 electrochemiluminescent immunoassay that has been granted emergency use authorization by the US Food and Drug Administration. The Elecsys IL-6 assay was evaluated for precision, linearity, interference (by hemoglobin, bilirubin, triglycerides, and biotin) and clinical performance was compared to the V-PLEX Human IL-6 immunoassay (Meso Scale Discovery), performed by a reference laboratory. The Elecsys IL-6 assay is precise (intra-assay <3% coefficient of variation [CV], interassay <5% CV), exhibits an analytical measurable range of 1.5-4790 pg/mL, and is tolerant of significant interferences (H < 2522, I <62, L<2101, biotin <50ng/mL). Comparison with the V-PLEX assay revealed a 2.95 slope bias in patient samples evaluated for IL-6 concentration (n=43, range=1.5-1891 pg/mL, y=2.95x - 32.7, r2=0.84). Bland-Altman analysis revealed an absolute mean bias of 152 pg/mL (SD=254 pg/mL), or a mean percentage difference of 73%. The Roche IL-6 assay showed good analytical performance. The large systematic bias compared with another reference method precludes using multiple methods to monitor IL-6 response. The random-access nature of an automated IL-6 assay on the Roche platform makes the test available on demand.

Geometric accuracy of low-dose CT scans for use in shoulder musculoskeletal research applications

Computed tomography (CT) imaging is frequently employed in a variety of musculoskeletal research applications. Although research studies often use imaging protocols developed for clinical applications, lower dose protocols are likely possible when the goal is to reconstruct 3D bone models. Our purpose was to describe the dose-accuracy trade-off between incrementally lower-dose CT scans and the geometric reconstruction accuracy of the humerus, scapula, and clavicle. Six shoulder specimens were acquired and scanned using 5 helical CT protocols: 1) 120 kVp, 450 mA (full-dose); 2) 120 kVp, 120 mA; 3) 120 kVp, 100 mA; 4) 100 kVp, 100 mA; 5) 80 kVp, 80 mA. Scans were segmented and reconstructed into 3D surface meshes. Geometric error was assessed by comparing the surfaces of the low-dose meshes to the full-dose (gold standard) mesh and was described using mean absolute error, bias, precision, and worst-case error. All low-dose protocols resulted in a >70 % reduction in the effective dose. Lower dose scans resulted in higher geometric errors; however, error magnitudes were generally <0.5 mm. These data suggest that the effective dose associated with CT imaging can be substantially reduced without a significant loss of geometric reconstruction accuracy.

A practical method to draw from multivariate extreme value distributions

Generating random draws from multivariate extreme value (MEV) distributions plays an important role in the microsimulation of travel behaviors, which can effectively avoid heavy computational burdens from simulation based on calculated probability values, particularly in simulations for a large population or choice behaviors from a large choice set. However, there are few practical and effective methods for drawing from MEV distributions. This paper proposes a simple and computationally efficient approach for drawing from MEV distributions in the nested logit (NL), cross-nested logit (CNL), and paired combinatorial logit (PCL) models. The proposed approach to draw from the MEV distribution for a CNL model provides a new perspective to understand the underlying choice mechanism of the CNL model. To our knowledge, this is the first study to draw from an MEV distribution in the PCL model. Random draws from the proposed approach approximately follow the standard Gumbel distribution, which is the marginal distribution of NL/CNL/PCL models, and approximate correlations among alternatives well. Simulation results of NL/CNL/PCL models show that the proposed approach provides high-level accuracy in recovering model parameters with the overall mean absolute percentage bias being less than 3%. The proposed approach is computationally more efficient than similar ones because it only needs to draw from Gumbel distributions. The proposed approach can be used to simulate NL/CNL/PCL models with a large choice set or a multiple discrete-continuous generalized extreme value model in various application settings such as joint destination-mode choices, time use allocations, etc.

Comparative analysis of satellite and reanalysis data with ground‐based observations in Northern Ghana

AbstractAccurate predictions of streamflow and flood events are contingent upon the availability of reliable hydrometeorological data. In regions characterized by scarcity of ground‐based hydrometeorological observations, satellite and reanalysis data assume prominence as alternative predictors. Floods and droughts have emerged as a significant concern in Northern Ghana, yet the scarcity of ground‐based hydrometeorological data impedes effective prediction of these hydrological events. Consequently, the identification of suitable surrogate hydrometeorological data holds paramount importance in addressing these challenges. This study, therefore, assessed the accuracy of satellite and reanalysis data against ground‐based data in Northern Ghana. Rainfall and mean temperature spanning from 1998 to 2019 and soil moisture datasets from 2019 to 2022 were collected from GMet, ISMN (ground‐based), CHIRPS, PERSIANN‐CDR, ERA5, ARC2, MERRA‐2, TRMM and CFSR (satellite and reanalysis). Employing rigorous statistical measures, namely standard deviation, mean absolute error (MAE) and mean bias error (MBE), the accuracy of these datasets was thoroughly evaluated. The results revealed that CHIRPS and PERSIANN‐CDR exhibited superior accuracy in rainfall simulation, with CHIRPS demonstrating particularly consistent congruence with observed data. In terms of mean temperature prediction, ERA5 surpassed MERRA‐2 and CFSR. Regarding soil moisture assessments, both ERA5 and CFSR offered satisfactory simulations. Hence, our findings advocate for the preference of CHIRPS (for rainfall data), ERA5 (for temperature data) and a combination of CFSR/ERA5 (for soil moisture data) as dependable primary data sources for streamflow modelling, drought analysis, flood prediction and water resource management in the context of Northern Ghana.

Evaluation of an In‐Canopy Wind and Wind Adjustment Factor Model for Wildfire Spread Applications Across Scales

AbstractThe representation of vegetative sub‐canopy wind is critical in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models for the determination of the air‐surface exchange processes of heat, momentum, and trace gases. Because of the relationship between wind speed and fire behaviors, the influence of the canopy on near‐surface wind speed is critical for prognostic fire spread models used in regional NWP models. In practice, the wind speed at the midflame point of fires (midflame wind speed) is used to determine the rate of fire spread. However, the wind speeds from most in situ measurements and NWP models are taken at some reference height above the canopy and fire flames. Hence, this study develops a modular and computationally‐efficient one‐dimensional model set composed of a canopy wind model and a wind adjustment factor (WAF) model for NWP applications across scales. The model set uses prescribed foliage shape functions to represent the vertical vegetation profile and its impacts on the three‐dimensional structure of horizontal wind speeds. Results from the canopy wind model well agree with ground‐based observations with average mean absolute bias, root mean square error and determination coefficients around 0.18 m s−1, 0.40 m s−1and 0.90, respectively. The WAF model provides midflame wind speeds by estimating the WAF based on canopy, fire and flame characteristics. Various user‐definable options provide flexibility to adapt to variations in canopy characteristics and additional complexities associated with wildfires. The model set is expected to improve NWP models by providing an improved representation of the sub‐grid wind flows at any spatial scale.

A new Egyptian Grid Weighted Mean Temperature (EGWMT) model using hourly ERA5 reanalysis data in GNSS PWV retrieval

Precise modeling of weighted mean temperature (Tm) is essential for Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) meteorology. In retrieving precipitable water vapor (PWV) from GNSS, Tm is a crucial parameter for the conversion of zenith wet delay (ZWD) into PWV. In this study, an improved Tm model, named EGWMT, was developed to accurately estimate Tm at any site in Egypt. This new model was established using hourly ERA5 reanalysis data from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) covering the period from 2008 to 2019 with a spatial resolution of 0.25° × 0.25°. The performance of the proposed model was evaluated using two types of data sources, including hourly ERA5 reanalysis data from 2019 to 2022 and radiosonde profiles over a six-year period from 2017 to 2022. The accuracy of the EGWMT model was compared to that of four other models: Bevis, Elhaty, ANN and GGTm-Ts using two statistical quantities, including mean absolute bias (MAB) and root mean square error (RMSE). The results demonstrated that the EGWMT model outperformed the Bevis, Elhaty, ANN and GGTm-Ts models with RMSE improvements of 32.5%, 30.8%, 39% and 48.2%, respectively in the ERA5 data comparison. In comparison with radiosonde data, the EGWMT model achieved RMSE improvements of 22.5%, 34%, 38% and 19.5% against Bevis, Elhaty, ANN and GGTm-Ts models, respectively. In order to determine the significance of differences in means and variances, statistical tests, including t-test and F-test, were conducted. The results confirmed that there were significant differences between the EGWMT model and the four other models.

A Preliminary Study on the Parameter Configuration of Weather Research Forecasting in Tropical Peatland, Central Kalimantan

Hydrometeorological variables are sensitively regulated by atmospheric dynamics and variability. Weather research and forecasting (WRF) model is the cutting-edge tool for studying and investigating the dynamics of physical atmospheric conditions, but the configuration scheme of WRF parameters remains a research challenge for topical peatland situated in the maritime continent. Here, we evaluated WRF parametrization based on three kalibration configuration schemes, which influence rainfall, temperature, and soil moisture dynamics. We tested the WRF evaluation for Sebangau-Kahayan peatland for a wet-dry season in August 2020. The best configuration was determined based on three statistical metrics namely mean absolute error, percent bias, and coefficient of correlation. Our results showed that WRF forecasts were greatly depend on a bias correction to improve the model performance, in which it was consistently found in all configurations. Rainfall was barely predicted in station level with a low performance in term of weekly spatial distribution. Other findings revealed that all configurations showed a good performance for temperature and soil moisture forecasts. Further, our findings emphasize the important physical parameter of WRF that control rainfall formation and dynamics. Last, we highlight an urgent need of more ground stations in term of spatial distribution to validate the weather forecast.

Improved mortality analysis in early-phase dose-ranging clinical trials for emergency medical diseases using Bayesian time-to-event models with active comparators.

Emergency medical diseases (EMDs) are the leading cause of death worldwide. A time-to-death analysis is needed to accurately identify the risks and describe the pattern of an EMD because the mortality rate can peak early and then decline. Dose-ranging Phase II clinical trials are essential for developing new therapies for EMDs. However, most dose-finding trials do not analyze mortality as a time-to-event endpoint. We propose three Bayesian dose-response time-to-event models for a secondary mortality analysis of a clinical trial: a two-group (active treatment vs control) model, a three-parameter sigmoid EMAX model, and a hierarchical EMAX model. The study also incorporates one specific active treatment as an active comparator in constructing three new models. We evaluated the performance of these six models and a very popular independent model using simulated data motivated by a randomized Phase II clinical trial focused on identifying the most effective hyperbaric oxygen dose to achieve favorable functional outcomes in patients with severe traumatic brain injury. The results show that the three-group, EMAX, and EMAX model with an active comparator produce the smallest averaged mean squared errors and smallest mean absolute biases. We provide a new approach for time-to-event analysis in early-phase dose-ranging clinical trials for EMDs. The EMAX model with an active comparator can provide valuable insights into the mortality analysis of new EMDs or other conditions that have changing risks over time. The restricted mean survival time, a function of the model's hazards, is recommended for displaying treatment effects for EMD research.

Hybrid machine learning modeling of nitrogen removal from wastewater using gas-liquid-solid circulating fluidized bed riser

Municipal wastewater generally contains high amounts of nitrogen (N), approximately 23–28 mg/L of total Kjeldahl Nitrogen (TKN), which causes eutrophication and pollution of groundwater. This article reports the generation of empirical models for estimating the nitrogen removal efficacy of two outputs (NH4-N and NO3-N) from the anoxic riser of a highly efficient municipal wastewater treatment system involving a gas-liquid-solid circulating fluidized bed (GLSCFB) bioreactor. To identify the important variables and discard irrelevant ones, the ReliefF algorithm is applied initially. Out of 10 independent variables, this method indicates that only three, such as flow rate, total Kjeldahl Nitrogen (TKN), and downer effluent of NO3-N, are meaningful for anoxic nitrogen removal. Then, a hybrid Bayesian Optimization Algorithm and Support Vector Regression (BOA-SVR) is implemented, considering only the essential variables. In this regard, real-life laboratory data are utilized to develop the models. The BOA approach and k-fold cross-validation technique are explicitly applied to optimize the model's hyperparameters and avoid overfitting. The established models provided sufficiently accurate predictions via their comparisons to the experimental observations. Besides, the BOA-SVR model outperforms the classical multiple linear regression (MLR). The BOA-SVR models' forecasted results for both the predicted amount of NH4-N and NO3-N are favorably compared with the laboratory trials (R2> 99 %). A comprehensive evaluation is further conducted to validate the performance of this model by calculating the root mean square error, mean absolute percentage error, fractional bias, and computational efficiency. Gaussian white noise is used to add three distinct noise levels (20 %, 40 %, and 60 %) to the testing data to evaluate the model's robustness. Moreover, the plots of relative deviations and residuals were dispersed across the zero-reference line with moderate fluctuations. Sensitivity analysis indicated the relative importance of the three independent variables on the anoxic nitrogen removal in the order of influent TKN > downer effluent NO3-N >flowrate. Overall, the developed tool has substantial potential in modeling other convoluted processes.

Deep learning bias correction of GEMS tropospheric NO2: A comparative validation of NO2 from GEMS and TROPOMI using Pandora observations

Despite advancements in satellite instruments, such as those in geostationary orbit, biases continue to affect the accuracy of satellite data. This research pioneers the use of a deep convolutional neural network to correct bias in tropospheric column density of NO2 (TCDNO2) from the Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer (GEMS) during 2021–2023. Initially, we validate GEMS TCDNO2 against Pandora observations and compare its accuracy with measurements from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI). GEMS displays acceptable accuracy in TCDNO2 measurements, with a correlation coefficient (R) of 0.68, an index of agreement (IOA) of 0.79, and a mean absolute bias (MAB) of 5.73321 × 1015 molecules/cm2, though it is not highly accurate. The evaluation showcases moderate to high accuracy of GEMS TCDNO2 across all Pandora stations, with R values spanning from 0.46 to 0.80. Comparing TCDNO2 from GEMS and TROPOMI at TROPOMI overpass time shows satisfactory performance of GEMS TCDNO2 measurements, achieving R, IOA, and MAB values of 0.71, 0.78, and 6.82182 × 1015 molecules/cm2, respectively. However, these figures are overshadowed by TROPOMI’s superior accuracy, which reports R, IOA, and MAB values of 0.81, 0.89, and 3.26769 × 1015 molecules/cm2, respectively. While GEMS overestimates TCDNO2 by 52 % at TROPOMI overpass time, TROPOMI underestimates it by 9 %. The deep learning bias corrected GEMS TCDNO2 (GEMS-DL) demonstrates a marked enhancement in the accuracy of original GEMS TCDNO2 measurements. The GEMS-DL product improves R from 0.68 to 0.88, IOA from 0.79 to 0.93, MAB from 5.73321 × 1015 to 2.67659 × 1015 molecules/cm2, and reduces MAB percentage (MABP) from 64 % to 30 %. This represents a significant reduction in bias, exceeding 50 %. Although the original GEMS product overestimates TCDNO2 by 28 %, the GEMS-DL product remarkably minimizes this error, underestimating TCDNO2 by a mere 1 %. Spatial cross-validation across Pandora stations shows a significant reduction in MABP, from a range of 45 %-105.6 % in original GEMS data to 24 %-59 % in GEMS-DL.

Improving Coastal Storm Surge Monitoring Through Joint Modeling Based on Permanent and Temporary Tide Gauges

AbstractWith climate change, there will be higher requirements for monitoring storm surges (SSs) in nearshore areas. However, this capability is limited by the sparseness of tide gauge (TG) stations. Establishing and maintaining a permanent, high‐spatial coverage, in situ TG network is complex and expensive. Here, we propose a joint modeling method developed from the all‐site modeling data‐driven framework by importing temporary TGs into coastal regions with insufficient permanent TG stations. The assessments show that this method can significantly optimize the capability of extreme SS monitoring during typhoons and hurricanes. Moreover, the evaluation based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 data indicates that it will monitor extreme SSs more effectively during 2025–2050 compared with only using existing permanent in situ TGs (reducing root mean square error and absolute mean bias by ∼50%). The joint modeling method provides an applicable and sustainable solution for optimizing the SS monitoring capability in coastal areas.

An Improved Gap-Filling Method for Reconstructing Dense Time-Series Images from LANDSAT 7 SLC-Off Data

Over recent decades, Landsat satellite data has evolved into a highly valuable resource across diverse fields. Long-term satellite data records with integrity and consistency, such as the Landsat series, provide indispensable data for many applications. However, the malfunction of the Scan Line Corrector (SLC) on the Landsat 7 satellite in 2003 resulted in stripping in subsequent images, compromising the temporal consistency and data quality of Landsat time-series data. While various methods have been proposed to improve the quality of Landsat 7 SLC-off data, existing gap-filling methods fail to enhance the temporal resolution of reconstructed images, and spatiotemporal fusion methods encounter challenges in managing large-scale datasets. Therefore, we propose a method for reconstructing dense time series from SLC-off data. This method utilizes the Neighborhood Similar Pixel Interpolator to fill in missing values and leverages the time-series information to reconstruct high-resolution images. Taking the blue band as an example, the surface reflectance verification results show that the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and BIAS reach minimum values of 0.0069 and 0.0014, respectively, with the Correlation Coefficient (CC) and Structural Similarity Index Metric (SSIM) reaching 0.93 and 0.94. The proposed method exhibits advantages in repairing SLC-off data and reconstructing dense time-series data, enabling enhanced remote sensing applications and reliable Earth’s surface reflectance data reconstruction.

A Two‐stage Bayesian Small Area Estimation Approach for Proportions

SummaryWith the rise in popularity of digital Atlases to communicate spatial variation, there is an increasing need for robust small area estimates. However, current small area estimation methods suffer from various modelling problems when data are very sparse or when estimates are required for areas with very small populations. These issues are particularly heightened when modelling proportions. Additionally, recent work has shown significant benefits in modelling at both the individual and area levels. We propose a two‐stage Bayesian hierarchical small area estimation approach for proportions that can account for survey design, reduce direct estimate instability and generate prevalence estimates for small areas with no survey data. Using a simulation study, we show that, compared with existing Bayesian small area estimation methods, our approach can provide optimal predictive performance (Bayesian mean relative root mean squared error, mean absolute relative bias and coverage) of proportions under a variety of data conditions, including very sparse and unstable data. To assess the model in practice, we compare modelled estimates of current smoking prevalence for 1,630 small areas in Australia using the 2017–2018 National Health Survey data combined with 2016 census data.

Modelling Diameter at Breast Height Distribution for Eight Commercial Species in Natural-Origin Mixed Forests of Ontario, Canada

Diameter at breast height (DBH) is a unique attribute used to characterize forest growth and development for forest management planning and to understand forest ecology. Forest managers require an array of DBHs of forest stands, which can be reconstructed using selected probability distribution functions (PDFs). However, there is a lack of practices that fit PDFs of sub-dominating species grown in natural mixed forests. This study aimed to fit PDFs and develop predictive models for PDF parameters, so that the predicted distribution would represent dynamic forest structures and compositions in mixed forest stands. We fitted three of the simplest forms of PDFs, log-normal, gamma, and Weibull, for the DBH of eight tree species, namely balsam fir (Abies balsamea [L.] Mill.), eastern white pine (Pinus strobus L.), paper birch (Betula papyrifera Marshall), red maple (Acer rubrum L.), red pine (Pinus resinosa Aiton), trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx), and white spruce (Picea glauca [Moench] Voss), all grown in natural-origin mixed forests in Ontario province, Canada. We estimated the parameters of the PDFs as a function of DBH mean and standard deviation for these species. Our results showed that log-normal fit the best among the three PDFs. We demonstrated that the predictive model could estimate the recovered parameters unbiasedly for all species, which can be used to reconstruct the DBH distributions of these tree species. In addition to prediction, the cross-validated R2 for the DBH mean ranged between 0.76 for red maple and 0.92 for red pine. However, the R2 for the regression of the standard deviation ranged between 0.00 for red pine and 0.69 for sugar maple, although it produced unbiased predictions and a small mean absolute bias. As these mean and standard deviations are regressed with dynamic covariates (such as stem density and stand basal area), in addition to climate and static geographic variables, the predicted DBH distribution can reflect change over time in response to management or any type of disturbance in the regime of the given geography. The predictive model-based DBH distributions can be applied to the design of appropriate silviculture systems for forest management planning.

Evaluating the performance of various interpolation techniques on digital elevation models in highly dense forest vegetation environment

A Digital Elevation Model (DEM) is a numerical representation of the Earth's topography using an array of cells or pixels. DEMs are important for various purposes such as hydrological studies and environmental monitoring in situations where there is a need to assess land use changes, deforestation, and disaster response. In this study, various spatial interpolation methods, such as the Inverse distance weighting (IDW) technique, Natural Neighbor, and Triangulated Irregular Network (TIN) methods, were compared to evaluate the performance in generating accurate and reliable DEMs. We also considered factors such as computational efficiency and ease of implementation to determine the most suitable method. The precision of the generated DEMs was assessed through metrics such as root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute bias (MAB). The predicted elevation models were compared with elevation values obtained through ground surveys. Furthermore, a raster agreement analysis was used to compare the elevation values recorded by the two data sources, the USGS 3D Elevation Program (USGS 3DEP) and Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV). The analysis revealed that TIN method demonstrated the highest level of agreement at 92%, while the binning technique showed inconsistency in predicting the elevation values based on the data source. In regions with high forest cover, the results were less accurate due to the limited number of last returns available for developing the DEM. This study also found that TIN recorded the fastest processing time per square acre. The presence of vegetation significantly influences the quantity of Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) pulses capable of reaching the forest floor, subsequently impacting the quantity of points available for the creation of a DEM.

Predicting CO2 production of lactating dairy cows from animal, dietary, and production traits using an international dataset

Automated measurements of the ratio of concentrations of methane and carbon dioxide, [CH4]:[CO2], in breath from individual animals (the so-called "sniffer technique") and estimated CO2 production can be used to estimate CH4 production, provided that CO2 production can be reliably calculated. This would allow CH4 production from individual cows to be estimated in large cohorts of cows, whereby ranking of cows according to their CH4 production might become possible and their values could be used for breeding of low CH4-emitting animals. Estimates of CO2 production are typically based on predictions of heat production, which can be calculated from body weight (BW), energy-corrected milk yield, and days of pregnancy. The objectives of the present study were to develop predictions of CO2 production directly from milk production, dietary, and animal variables, and furthermore to develop different models to be used for different scenarios, depending on available data. An international dataset with 2,244 records from individual lactating cows including CO2 production and associated traits, as dry matter intake (DMI), diet composition, BW, milk production and composition, days in milk, and days pregnant, was compiled to constitute the training dataset. Research location and experiment nested within research location were included as random intercepts. The method of CO2 production measurement (respiration chamber [RC] or GreenFeed [GF]) was confounded with research location, and therefore excluded from the model. In total, 3 models were developed based on the current training dataset: model 1 ("best model"), where all significant traits were included; model 2 ("on-farm model"), where DMI was excluded; and model 3 ("reduced on-farm model"), where both DMI and BW were excluded. Evaluation on test dat sets with either RC data (n = 103), GF data without additives (n = 478), or GF data only including observations where nitrate, 3-nitrooxypropanol (3-NOP), or a combination of nitrate and 3-NOP were fed to the cows (GF+: n = 295), showed good precision of the 3 models, illustrated by low slope bias both in absolute values (-0.22 to 0.097) and in percentage (0.049 to 4.89) of mean square error (MSE). However, the mean bias (MB) indicated systematic overprediction and underprediction of CO2 production when the models were evaluated on the GF and the RC test datasets, respectively. To address this bias, the 3 models were evaluated on a modified test dataset, where the CO2 production (g/d) was adjusted by subtracting (where measurements were obtained by RC) or adding absolute MB (where measurements were obtained by GF) from evaluation of the specific model on RC, GF, and GF+ test datasets. With this modification, the absolute values of MB and MB as percentage of MSE became negligible. In conclusion, the 3 models were precise in predicting CO2 production from lactating dairy cows.