Massive Earthquake Research Articles

Impacts of Earthquakes on Economic Growth and Income Inequality in Independent Turkic States

Earthquakes are major natural disasters that occur frequently worldwide. They have several socioeconomic impacts on countries. At first glance, it seems that as if they cause only large volumes of deaths, injuries and destruction. However, in the medium and long run, they cause several other impacts such as income, employment and production losses, increased government expenditures, inflation explosions and income distortions. All of these impacts are critical especially for developing countries that have more vulnerable economies than developed ones. In this respect, this study aims to analyse the impacts of massive earthquakes on economic growth and income inequality in independent Turkic states. With this purpose, two empirical models are estimated by the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) with panel data covering the period from 1991 – 2022 for 6 countries. Empirical findings exhibit that major earthquakes do not have significant impacts on the economic growth processes of these countries. However, they have significant impacts on income distortions. In this manner, it seems that despite massive earthquakes, Turkic states have been able to sustain their economic growth processes. However, income inequality has increased as a byproduct of these disasters. This evidence seems substantial for sustainable development policy formations of Turkic states.

The collateral channel versus the bank lending channel: Evidence from a massive earthquake

This paper compares the economic impact of the collateral and bank lending channels in a unified framework by taking advantage of exogenous shocks to firms’ tangible assets and banks’ net worth caused by the massive Tohoku earthquake in 2011. We obtain the following findings: (1) both damage to a firm's tangible assets and to the net worth of its primary bank lead to an increase in the probability of the firm being credit constrained, which lends support to the existence of both the collateral and the bank lending channel; (2) the increase through the bank lending channel is about twice as large as and longer-lasting than that through the collateral channel; (3) the credit constraint has real effects: in terms of the aggregated sales decline, the impact through the bank lending channel is more than four times as large as that through the collateral channel, because the negative impact of damage to banks’ net worth spilled over to firms located outside the earthquake-damaged region. Overall, the bank lending channel played a far more substantial role than the collateral channel in the wake of the earthquake.

Nearshore Propagation and Amplification of the Tsunami Following the 2024 Noto Peninsula Earthquake, Japan

AbstractOn 1 January 2024, a massive earthquake struck the Noto Peninsula in Japan, and the resulting tsunami significantly damaged the nearby coasts. This study focuses on Iida Bay, located on the peninsula that suffered severe coastal damage. We observed a tsunami waveform in Iida Bay from video analysis owing to the lack of instrument data. This, combined with the waveform observed outside the bay, was used to correct the initial sea‐surface displacements produced by a prior source model. We successfully reproduced the observed waveforms with corrected displacements and investigated how the tsunami propagated and amplified in the bay. Alongshore wave propagation and superposition were identified as crucial factors in this tsunami event.

Prediction Equations for Peak-Ground Accelerations and Velocities in Northeast Japan Using the S-net Data

S-net is a seafloor observation network for earthquakes and tsunamis around the Japan Trench, comprising 150 observatories with seismometers and pressure gauges. The region has been known to experience massive earthquakes, and several magnitude 6 and 7 class earthquakes have occurred after the network was established in 2016. This study constructed ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) for horizontal peak ground accelerations (PGAs) and peak ground velocities (PGVs) using the S-net data and revealed that the GMPEs can be used to predict the PGAs and PGVs at the land stations where measured S-wave velocities are available. We used a relatively short time window of the S-net records from the viewpoint of earthquake early warning but included S waves. Data from earthquakes of magnitudes between Mw 5.5 and Mw 7.4 were used. The construction of the GMPEs was achieved in two steps. First, regression analysis was conducted for each event data, and mean site residual was obtained over the available records at each S-net site. Second, the data were adjusted by the mean site residuals, and stratified regression analysis, which decouples the source and path factors, was performed. Finally, we applied the GMPEs to predict PGAs and PGVs at the KiK-net sites on land. We determined that the residuals at the KiK-net sites were systematically biased with Vs30 (average S-wave velocity in the upper 30 m). We obtained correction factors for the bias and demonstrated that the PGAs and PGVs at the KiK-net sites could be predicted reasonably well.

Disasters and technological upgrading measured by changes in demand for ICT labour: estimating the impacts with text

AbstractExtensive literature has studied the economic impact of disasters. However, specific impacts on labour markets have received less attention. Using a massive earthquake (> 8.0 Mw) that struck Chile in 2010 and proprietary data from a Chilean online job board (4136 job postings published between 2008 and 2012), we examine changes in demand for Information and Communications Technologies, ICT, related labour as a proxy for technological upgrading, by assuming that ICT and related technologies drive much of the technical change in production. We implement a structural topic model to discover and estimate the difference in the prevalence of ICT and Construction labour, among others. Our results show that ICT labour does not change. In contrast, Construction labour significantly differed after the disaster, suggesting that reconstruction activities led to employment differences. Our results suggest that there was no substantive technological replacement following the earthquake.

Harnessing earthquake generated glass and plastic waste for sustainable construction

On February 6, 2023 Türkiye witnessed two massive earthquakes of magnitudes 7.6 and 7.8 centred near Gaziantep Province. The aftermaths of the earthquakes were devastating. Thousands of people were dead under the rubble of collapsed buildings and millions displaced. The challenge was the disposal of tons of debris generated due to the destruction of structures and roads, and the construction of new buildings for relocation of displaced people. Not only being uneconomical, the disposal and new construction also became a major environmental concern. A solution to this problem lies in the constructive disposal of earthquake wastes i.e., the utilization of waste materials from debris generated after an earthquake in order to ensure its proper and beneficial disposition. The article provides a two problems one solution technique in this regard. Research techniques and outcomes of modification of glass and plastic waste in the industries for the manufacture of good quality construction materials and the subsequent use of these materials in construction are reviewed. Further analysis is carried out to determine whether the application of this knowledge in practical field ensures that both environmental and economical requirements are met.

Field Observations and Numerical Investigations on Seismic Damage Assessment of RC and Masonry Minarets During the February 6th, 2023, Kahramanmaraş (Mw 7.7 Pazarcık and Mw 7.6 Elbistan) Earthquakes in Türkiye

ABSTRACT On February 6, 2023, two massive earthquakes struck the EasternAnatolian Fault Line (EAF) at 9-hour intervals. The Mw 7.7 and Mw 7.6 earthquakes were located in Pazarcık and Elbistan districts inKahramanmaraş province. These earthquakes directly damaged 11 provinces in Eastern and Southeastern Anatolia (Kahramanmaraş,Hatay, Adyaman, Osmaniye, Gaziantep, Şanlurfa, Malatya, Diyarbakır,Adana, Kilis, and Elazığ), causing substantial loss of life and property. This study aims to present the field investigation of reinforced concrete (RC) and masonry minarets in 11 cities around the area after these earthquakes and the structural performance and collapse mechanism of two minarets selected as case studies. For this purpose, the damaged or collapsed minarets in the region affected by the earthquakes were determined and the reasons were explained. In addition, an RC and a masonry minaret in the İslahiye district were chosen as case studies, and finite element models (FEM) were created.The validity and correctness of the reasons for damages determined by field observations were further demonstrated by numerical findings.It was determined that nearly all of the damaged and collapsed minarets did not obtain proper engineering services. Additionally, it is believed that the lack of any norms or regulations for these unique constructions is a significant weakness that places engineers in a challenging situation throughout the design phase

Fuzzy best–worst method–based approach for warehouse location selection and a case study in Izmir

PurposeThe study aims to propose a decision-support system to determine the location of a regional disaster logistics warehouse. Emphasizing the importance of disaster logistics, it considers the criteria to be evaluated for warehouse location selection. It is aimed to determine a warehouse location that will serve the disaster victims most efficiently in case of a disaster by making an application for the province of Izmir, where a massive earthquake hit in 2020.Design/methodology/approachThe paper proposes a fuzzy best–worst method to evaluate the alternative locations for the warehouse. The method considers the linguistic evaluations of the decision-makers and provides an advantage in terms of comparison consistency. The alternatives were identified through interviews and discussions with a group of experts in the fields of humanitarian aid and disaster relief operations. The group consists of academics and a vice-governor, who had worked in Izmir. The results of a previously conducted questionnaire were also used in determining these locations.FindingsIt is shown how the method will be applied to this problem, and the most effective location for the disaster logistics warehouse in Izmir has been determined.Originality/valueThis study contributes to disaster preparedness and brings a solution to the organization of the logistics services in Izmir.

Will a re-emergence of ancient infectious diseases pose a new risk to humanity in the coming millennia?

Infectious diseases including smallpox, the black plague, cholera, and others have been responsible for the loss of millions of lives over the past millennia, prior to the development of effective treatment strategies during the recent century. Throughout history, epidemics and pandemics are known to have occurred intermittently throughout the world for over 2,500 years. During the 20th century, many of the causative infectious agents were identified, the evolution of vaccines and antimicrobials were developed, resulting in treatment strategies and public health measures that brought about the resolution and presumed virtual eradication of some of the infectious agents. Cholera is transmitted via the fecal-oral route, and outbreaks continue to occur, with the most recent epidemic in Haiti following the massive earthquake of 2010 despite the development of effective vaccines and supporting public health measures. While smallpox was deemed to have been eradicated by the WHO, the recent discovery of Alaskapox, a novel strain of orthopoxvirus that is genetically similar to ‘old-world’ smallpox claimed its first fatality in January 2024. The bubonic plague also continues to reappear in clusters, most recently in rural Oregon in the USA in early 2024. Thus, the emergence of variants of these and other devastating ancient diseases continues to require diligence in establishing and delivery of public health measures and therapeutic options to ensure the plagues of former millennia remain in the history books and not in the community during the present and future generations.

School-based psychosocial and educational interventions for children and adolescents after the 1999 Marmara earthquakes in Turkey: A review on lessons learned

The massive earthquakes experienced in August and November 1999 affected thousands of people in the Marmara region, the most densely populated and industrialized part of Turkey. The humanitarian and economic cost was so enormous, and these earthquakes have changed the Turkish disaster management system and the Turkish people’s approach to disasters. Marmara earthquakes are also considered as a milestone in the provision of psychosocial services for disaster victims. This paper aims to review the psychosocial interventions targeting children, adolescents, and their families after the 1999 earthquakes in Turkey. The progression from initial responses to more organized psychosocial interventions is outlined. Conducting the interventions at schools has ensured that thousands of children, teachers, and parents are reached in the most efficient and effective way possible. The significance of the school context in designing psychosocial interventions is highlighted and implications of the lessons learned for traumatic experiences of children and parents are also explored. It is evaluated that these inferences obtained from the Marmara earthquake in Turkey can be used in disasters around the world.

A novel CGBoost deep learning algorithm for coseismic landslide susceptibility prediction

The accurate prediction of landslide susceptibility shortly after a violent earthquake is quite vital to the emergency rescue in the 72-h “golden window”. However, the limited quantity of interpreted landslides shortly after a massive earthquake makes landslide susceptibility prediction become a challenge. To address this gap, this work suggests an integrated method of Crossing Graph attention network and xgBoost (CGBoost). This method contains three branches, which extract the interrelations among pixels within a slope unit, the interrelations among various slope units, and the relevance between influencing factors and landslide probability, respectively, and obtain rich and discriminative features by an adaptive fusion mechanism. Thus, the difficulty of susceptibility modeling under a small number of coseismic landslides can be reduced. As a basic module of CGBoost, the proposed Crossing graph attention network (Crossgat) could characterize the spatial heterogeneity within and among slope units to reduce the false alarm in the susceptibility results. Moreover, the rainfall dynamic factors are utilized as prediction indices to improve the susceptibility performance, and the prediction index set is established by terrain, geology, human activity, environment, meteorology, and earthquake factors. CGBoost is applied to predict landslide susceptibility in the Gorkha meizoseismal area. 3.43% of coseismic landslides are randomly selected, of which 70% are used for training, and the others for testing. In the testing set, the values of Overall Accuracy, Precision, Recall, F1-score, and Kappa coefficient of CGBoost attain 0.9800, 0.9577, 0.9999, 0.9784, and 0.9598, respectively. Validated by all the coseismic landslides, CGBoost outperforms the current major landslide susceptibility assessment methods. The suggested CGBoost can be also applied to landslide susceptibility prediction in new earthquakes in the future.

Community engagement and crowdsourcing for effective disaster response and rescue operations during the earthquake in Syria

IntroductionOn February 6, 2023, at 4:17 a.m., a catastrophic earthquake struck the regions of southern and central Turkey and northern and western Syria, leaving over 51.000 casualties, and hundreds of thousands lost their homes. In Syria, the area affected by the earthquake was already vulnerable due to the protracted Syrian conflict. AimThe aim of this article was to present a report from the field where community engagement and crowdsourcing were used to support search and rescue efforts during the Syrian earthquake. MethodsThe process was divided into 3 stages: 1- Emergency response, 2- Humanitarian aid response, 3- Systematic response. Data was collected through Google form and mapped on Google Earth. The form was distributed through social media platforms to collect the data from the affected locations.Criteria were developed to validate the data received and confirm the location affected. Confirmed locations were communicated with relevant authorities and the civil community. Resultswithin the first 24 h, 1259 reports on affected locations and collapsed building were received. Data analysis resulted in a map of 129 confirmed locations with 1083 collapsed building. The majority were in Aleppo and Idlib. This process helped organise the search and rescue operations and direct them to correct locations. ConclusionThe present article described using community engagement and crowdsourcing in supporting emergency response and rescue operations to manage the aftermath of the massive earthquake that hit Syria in February 2023. The methodology presented in the article demonstrated the potential of utilising community engagement and crowdsourcing to improve disaster response efforts and outcomes.

Re-positioning of educational technology in the VUCA world: Global and local cases from the perspective of Turkey

This paper introduces and discusses an extensive case of VUCA in Turkey resulting from global and local calamities in terms of the facts and their reflections to Educational Technology. Turkey has experienced a successive events of misfortune starting with Covid-19 pandemic and followed by massive earthquakes that took place on February 2023, each of which has deepened VUCA and both resulted in failure in coping with VUCA, especially in Educational Technology. This paper thus, intends to draw attention to the mistakes made during these atmospheres by representing the facts and reactions of principles, which, we believe, may guide the rest in similar future cases. In this report, we firstly introduce the outlines of VUCA and the facts about February Earthquakes. Secondly, we discuss VUCA cases within the context of Educational Technology. Lastly, based on what we learned from these cases, suggestions for shareholders are presented to relieve Educational Technology. Keywords: VUCA, Educational Technology, Covid-19, February 6 earthquakes

Quasi-coseismic variations and geosphere coupling associated with the strong 2023 Turkey earthquakes

On 6 February 2023, two massive shallow earthquakes of Mw 7.8 and Mw 7.5 occurred successively in Turkey. Unlike earlier studies on pre-seismic anomalous signals, here we focus on the co-seismic changes in ocean, land, and atmospheric parameters associated with these two earthquakes. The quasi-coseismic variations have been clearly observed in ocean, atmosphere, and snow parameters from satellite and reanalysis datasets. Our results show a decline in the seawater temperature and salinity, and enhancement in the chlorophyll-a concentration in the eastern Mediterranean Sea associated with the earthquakes. Over the epicentral region, the total ozone column and snowfall have been observed to increase with the occurrence of earthquakes. After a detailed analysis of the hourly parameters (atmospheric pressure, air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed), we found the atmospheric pressure variation caused by the ground motion of seismic waves is the possible reason for the co-seismic changes. Based on the results discussed in this paper, a model of multi-geosphere co-seismic response associated with the 2023 Turkey events is proposed. Additionally, our results show that the crustal motion in the high mountain region within the earthquake preparation zone could be more sensitive prior to the earthquake due to the enhancement of electric field as suggested by the theory of positive holes.

SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF VOLCANIC ASH DISTRIBUTION DUE TO VOLCANIC ERUPTION IN JAVA ISLAND

Abstract. Indonesia is located on the Ring of Fire with the most geologically active than any other countries, which makes it vulnerable due to the massive earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. Java Island has the most active volcano with high risks such as human risk and infrastructure from volcanic ash because of volcanic eruptions. The availability of the map of potential volcanic hazards is important to help mitigate the risk caused by volcanic eruptions. However, to the best of the author's knowledge, the distribution of volcanic ash has never been assessed in detail in the disaster-prone hazard map published by the Centre for Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation (CVGHM), Indonesia. This research reported the potential distribution of volcanic ash due to volcanic eruptions in the future in Java island. Following the principles of Probabilistic Hazard Assessment and TephraProb software, the modeling of volcanic ash potential was performed using various parameters such as historical data, eruption source parameter, total grain-size distribution, tephra2 parameter, and the wind speed around the volcanoes as an input. The map shows the distribution of volcanic ash based on the volcanic ash accumulation (kg/m2) and the volcanic ash hazard map is classified into three classes. There are 19 models of volcanic ash distribution with various probabilities of exceedance based on 19 A-type volcanoes on Java Island. This volcano's distribution of volcanic ash tends to the southwest as the wind speed and direction.

Electrical Tests and Current Distribution of 500-m-Long DC Superconducting Power Cable

The third cooling test of 500m-long superconducting DC power transmission (SCDC) line constructed in Ishikari city, Hokkaido, was carried out in 2021. The system consists of underground superconducting cable with its electric capacities, 5kA and 100MVA. After completing two cooling tests in 2015, the system remained in a shutdown state. Therefore, this test was the first operation test in six years. The targets of the 3rd cooling test were to confirm the presence/absence of the damage due the Hokkaido Eastern Iburi Earthquake (Mj.6.7) that occurred in and acquire basic data for improving the efficiency of SCDC. Regarding electrical tests, the various tests, such as the capacitance/dielectric loss tangent temperature characteristic measurement, the insulation resistance measurement, the DC withstand voltage test, the rated current loading test were conducted to confirm the soundness of cables and the stability of current loading. One of the characteristic tests conducted this time is the current diversion test. Despite the six-year outage and the massive earthquake that occurred during that time, all tests confirmed that there was no deterioration in the performance of the cable system. In the current diversion test, it was confirmed that the current was evenly distributed to each conductor at the cable joint.

Operational Health Pavilions in Mass Disasters: Lessons Learned from the 2023 Earthquake in Turkey and Syria.

The massive earthquake that hit Turkey and Syria in February 2023 killed tens of thousands of people, and most of the deceased have not yet been identified. Many victims were pulled from the rubble hours or days later, injured and in need of assistance, treatment, and food, and many have not yet been connected with their families. Armed forces, volunteers, technicians, and health workers must cooperate in synergy in these situations to ensure effective interventions and to improve resilience. Based on the lessons learned from the response efforts to this recent natural catastrophe, this brief report proposes, for the first time, an organisational model structured around five functional pavilions that can be safely set up at the edge of a disaster area. Each pavilion should run its own activities to make a vital contribution to the overall coordinated emergency response. Looking to the future, it is extremely important to apply a technical approach that leads to maximum operational synergy at a disaster site and during the first phase of a sudden-onset emergency.

Distribution and transportation of Fukushima-derived radiocesiums in the seawater of the Northwest Pacific ocean in May 2013

The Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) has generated quantities of polluted water since the accident in 2011 triggered by the massive earthquake. In order to understand the FDNPP accident comprehensively and to provide a basic reference for predicting the transport of the treated nuclear contaminated water in the Northwest Pacific further, the distributions of 137Cs and 134Cs in the seawater as deep as 2000 m were determined in the subtropical region in May 2013. The results suggested that the radiocesium from FDNPP still existed in May 2013. But no FDNPP-derived radiocesium was found below 1000 m layer. The FDNPP accident contributed 0.46 PBq of 137Cs to the upper 500 m of water column, which was ∼1.6 times of the background amount of 137Cs (0.28 PBq). The maximum activities of 137Cs and 134Cs were 7.88 Bq/m3 and 3.40 Bq/m3, respectively. It is mainly because of the Subtropical Mode Water (STMW) that carried 137Cs and 134Cs to the subtropical region along the subsurface isopycnals (25.0–25.6 δθ). As time went on, more FDNPP-derived radiocesiums were transported to the subtropical region and to the subsurface layer by the STMW than ever. The cyclonic mesoscale eddy further promoted more radiocesiums downward transport and deeper penetration on the basis of the subduction of STMW. However, the formation of the vertical stratification and the presence of the low salinity water mass (at the depth of ∼500–∼700 m) restrained the penetration of the radiocesium into deeper and interior ocean and thus the FDNPP-derived 137Cs and 134Cs in the subtropical area mainly distributed in the upper 500 m layer.

Humanitarian assistance in cases of natural disasters and the 2023 earthquake in Turkey and Syria

Natural disasters represent a grave danger that threatens the countries of the world as a whole due to the enormous losses that result from them at all human, economic, social, and environmental levels, which justifies the urgent need for international cooperation in providing humanitarian and relief assistance to the victims affected by these disasters. The importance of research related to the legal scope of humanitarian aid in cases of natural disasters appears with the increase in the frequency and intensity of disasters, the growing losses resulting from them, and the insufficiency of the material or technical capabilities to rescue the victims. Hence, there is a need for a regulating and binding law for the international community that is more stringent and enjoys the spontaneity and speed of the initiative in the moment of disaster. The recent events of the massive earthquake that struck southern Turkey and northern Syria revealed a significant gap in the mechanisms of dealing with the disaster after it occurred, which doubled the human and economic losses in particular. This is especially true with transparency and objectivity in presenting the dimensions and limits of the disaster through media coverage and social media.

God’s Wrath over Antioch, 525–540 CE

Ancient Antioch (modern Antakya) is well known as a city prone to disasters. However, the calamitous events that hit the city between 525 and 540 CE have attracted particular attention. Within a time span of fifteen years, Antioch suffered major destructions by two massive earthquakes, several conflagrations, and a Persian sack. These events are reported in highly dramatic accounts by John Malalas and Procopius. Based on such reports, scholars since the nineteenth century have often interpreted these disasters as the starting point for a general decline of the city beginning in the sixth century. More recent reassessments, in contrast, have highlighted continuities on a variety of levels, emphasizing that over the long term, Antioch displayed high resilience on structural and institutional levels. This article picks up on these more recent findings but strives to approach the subject from a different angle. It focuses on Malalas’s and Procopius’s influential disaster narratives and seeks to further contextualize them. It traces how modern scholarly reception of the literary sources has fostered the traditional picture of “decline,” and it analyzes the narrative strategies of the texts, considering the literary traditions from which they originate and the cultural setting of which they form a part. The article seeks to show that the late ancient reports aim not to establish a picture of decline but rather to present Antioch as a purified, freshly Christianized city emerging from the ashes. It further argues that while it is important to critically reflect upon the rhetorical character of the double narrative of heavenly destruction and recreation, exploring the question of Antioch’s urban development in the sixth century through the lens of contemporary discourse on the Christian city not only increases our sensitivity to the methodological problems connected to these texts but may also lead to a better understanding of our evidence on Antioch’s post-Roman development.