Mass Balance Years Research Articles

Exceptional thinning through the entire altitudinal range of Mont-Blanc glaciers during the 2021/22 mass balance year

Abstract Widespread glacier losses have been observed in most glaciated regions on Earth during recent decades, with a typical pattern of strong thinning in their lower reaches and limited elevation changes in their accumulation areas. Here, we use Pléiades satellite stereo-images of the Mont-Blanc massif (Alps) to reveal that thinning took place through the entire elevation range during the exceptional 2021/22 mass-balance year. Above 3000 m a.s.l. on Argentière glacier and Mer de Glace, thinning rates exceeded 3.5 m a−1 while almost no change occurred during the previous 9 years. Below 3000 m a.s.l., these anomalous thinning rates are essentially explained by changes in surface mass balance. At higher altitudes, other processes such as firn densification may play a role. Our analysis shows that high altitude glaciers, mostly stable during the last 100 years, are now responding to the impact of climate change.

Reconstructing 32 years (1989–2020) of annual glacier surface mass balance in Chandra Basin, Western Himalayas, India

Reconstructing 32 years (1989–2020) of annual glacier surface mass balance in Chandra Basin, Western Himalayas, India

Long-term estimation of glacier mass balance using geospatial techniques in Western Himalayas, Ladakh, India

All glaciers are subject to mass fluctuations in the current context of climate change. For daily requirements like food, drink, irrigation, and the generation of hydroelectric power, these glaciers provide water to important basins including the Indus, Ganga, and Brahmaputra. Changes in glacier patterns are a blatant sign of local climate variability. Monitoring of glaciers requires long-term studies on glacier dynamics. Himalayan glaciers, because of their disposition in a complex topographic setting and inaccessible terrain render difficulty in the glacier observations in a continuous mode. Glacier mass fluctuations can be associated with glacier area shrinkage or expansion and concomitant snout shift. In the current study, two adjoining glaciers of different sizes, Pensilungpa and Drang Drung glaciers in the Zanskar Valley, Ladakh, India are selected. The period of the study was taken between the years 2000–2022. Earlier studies used a single day per year Accumulation Area Ratio (AAR) method to compute mass balance, which had limitations due to snow cover variability. The present study calculated and averaged all the AAR values for cloud-free images per year during the peak ablation period (mid-July to early September). Digital Elevation Model (DEM) difference technique was also employed for computing the mass budget between 2000 and 2021 b y utilizing two-time period DEMs. It was revealed that in the case of the AAR method, the Pensilungpa glacier showed 7 years of positive and 16 years of negative mass balance. The years 2003–2005 and 2011 to 2016 were depicted with negative mass balance with the highest value up to −0.752-m water equivalent (m.w.e.) for the year 2015. It has negligible areal fluctuations ranging from 0.01 to 0.6 km2. Drang Drung Glacier has shown 12 years of positive and 11 years of negative mass balance. The years 2002–2004 and 2009 to 2012 were depicted with positive mass balance with the highest value up to 0.305 m. w.e. Except, for the year 2009–2012 (areal increment ∼ 2.65 km2), years 2013–2015 showed a negative mass balance with negligible areal fluctuations. Mass balance estimation using DEM differencing method revealed an average estimated mass balance of −0.03 m. w.e. For Pensilungpa glacier though, it is 0.08 m. w.e. For Drang Drung glacier which shows good matches with the mass balance estimated using AAR method in m. w.e. Such contrasting behavior of mass balance suggests higher sensitivity of smaller glaciers to climate change.

Direct, geodetic and simulated mass balance studies of the Kolahoi Glacier in the Kashmir Himalaya, India

Knowledge of glacier mass balance (MB) is critical for understanding glacier-climate interactions and projecting future water availability in the data-scarce Himalayan region. In this study, we present the glaciological (2014–2019), geodetic (2000–2014) and reconstructed (1980–2019) MB of the Kolahoi Glacier (KG) in the Kashmir Himalaya, India. During the five-year observation period, the average in situ MB of the Glacier was −0.83 ± 0.34 m w.e. a−1, with significant inter-annual variation. The mean annual geodetic MB of the KG between 2000 and 2014 was −0.90 ± 0.09 m w.e. The reconstructed MB revealed four distinct glacier recession episodes since 1980. The Period I (1980–1990) showed a reduced mass loss of −0.27 ± 0.42 m w.e. a−1, with four years of positive mass balance. The Period II (2000–2010), on the other hand, experienced the highest mass loss of −1.18 m w.e. a−1 throughout the entire reconstructed MB series. All three MB measurement- in situ, geodetic and simulated agreed well. The MB showed an excellent correspondence with the observed temperature and precipitation. Analysis of the data revealed that the MB is sensitive to temperature at the rate of −0.65 m w.e. a−1 °C−1, but the sensitivity is only 0.13 m w.e. a−1 for a 10% change in precipitation. Furthermore, there is a good correlation between the simulated glacier mass loss and depleting glacier-melt in the autumn streamflow. The mass loss of the KG is expected to exacerbate in future as a result of the projected climate change, and thus further diminishing the streamflow of the transboundary rivers emanating from the region. It is envisaged that the findings will contribute to a better understanding of glacier-climate interactions and their implications for future water availability in the Kashmir Himalaya.

Energy and glacier mass balance of Fürkeleferner, Italy: past, present, and future

The energy and mass balance of mountain glaciers translate into volume changes that play out as area changes over time. From this, together with former moraines during maximum advances, information on past climate conditions and the climatic drivers behind during glacier advances can be obtained. Here, we use the distributed COupled Snowpack and Ice surface energy and mass balance model in PYthon (COSIPY) to simulate the present state of an Italian glacier, named Fürkeleferner, for the mass balance years 2013–2017. Next, we investigate the local climate during the time of the last “Little Ice Age” (LIA) maximum glacier advance using COSIPY together with the LIA glacier outline retrieved from moraine mapping and a digital elevation model (DEM) adapted for the glacier’s geometry at the time of the LIA as a benchmark. Furthermore, the glacier’s sensitivity to future air temperature increase of +1 K and +2 K is investigated using the same model. For all simulations, meteorological data of closely located climate stations are used to force the model. We show the individual monthly contribution of individual energy and mass balance components. Refreezing during the summer months is an important component of the energy and mass balance, on average about 9 % relative to total annual ablation. The results from simulating past climate show a 2.8 times larger glacier area for Fürkeleferner during the LIA than today. This further implies a 2.5 K colder climate, assuming that the amount of precipitation was 10 %–20 % in excess of today’s value. Concerning further temperature increase of 2 K, the glacier would only consist of the ablation area implying sustained mass loss and eventual total mass loss. Even under current climatic conditions, the glacier area would have to decrease to 17 % of its current area to be in a steady state. We discuss the reliability of the results by comparing simulated present mass balance to measured mass balances of neighboring glaciers in the European Alps and with short-term measurements on Fürkeleferner itself. In conclusion, we are able to show how the glacier responds to past and future climate change and determine the climatic drivers behind.

Response of Very Small Glaciers to Climate Variations and Change: Examples from the Pirin Mountains, Bulgaria

Very small glaciers (glacierets) react strongly to climatic variations. This is well expressed in their interannual size changes, which are most evident in autumn, at the end of the glacial mass balance year. This study presents results from the detailed research of two very small glaciers in the highest northern part of the Pirin Mountains of Bulgaria: Snezhnika and Banski suhodol. Systematic size measurements of these firn-ice bodies, which started in the 1990s and have been made simultaneously for a period of 13 years, show large inter-annual amplitudes against the background of a decreasing trend in response to climate warming. However, the relations are not straightforward, which is demonstrated when comparing size changes to climate data, including logger data obtained from glacier vicinity. This fact makes predictions for the changes in the local climate of high mountain cirques still relatively uncertain.

Mass balances of Yala and Rikha Samba glaciers, Nepal, from 2000 to 2017

Abstract. The glacier mass balance is an important variable to describe the climate system and is used for various applications like water resource management or runoff modelling. The direct or glaciological method and the geodetic method are the standard methods to quantify glacier mass changes, and both methods are an integral part of international glacier monitoring strategies. In 2011, we established two glacier mass-balance programmes on Yala and Rikha Samba glaciers in the Nepal Himalaya. Here we present the methods and data of the directly measured annual mass balances for the first six mass-balance years for both glaciers from 2011/2012 to 2016/2017. For Yala Glacier we additionally present the directly measured seasonal mass balance from 2011 to 2017, as well as the mass balance from 2000 to 2012 obtained with the geodetic method. In addition, we analysed glacier length changes for both glaciers. The directly measured average annual mass-balance rates of Yala and Rikha Samba glaciers are −0.80 ± 0.28 and −0.39 ± 0.32 m w.e. a−1, respectively, from 2011 to 2017. The geodetically measured annual mass-balance rate of Yala Glacier based on digital elevation models from 2000 and 2012 is −0.74 ± 0.53 m w.e. The cumulative mass loss for the period 2011 to 2017 for Yala and Rikha Samba glaciers is −4.80 ± 0.69 and −2.34 ± 0.79 m w.e., respectively. The mass loss on Yala Glacier from 2000 to 2012 is −8.92 ± 6.33 m w.e. The winter balance of Yala Glacier is positive, and the summer balance is negative in every investigated year. The summer balance determines the annual balance. Compared to regional mean geodetic mass-balance rates in the Nepalese Himalaya, the mean mass-balance rate of Rikha Samba Glacier is in a similar range, and the mean mass-balance rate of Yala Glacier is more negative because of the small and low-lying accumulation area. During the study period, a change of Yala Glacier's surface topography has been observed with glacier thinning and downwasting. The retreat rates of Rikha Samba Glacier are higher than for Yala Glacier. From 1989 to 2013, Rikha Samba Glacier retreated 431 m (−18.0 m a−1), and from 1974 to 2016 Yala Glacier retreated 346 m (−8.2 m a−1). The data of the annual and seasonal mass balances, point mass balance, geodetic mass balance, and length changes are accessible from the World Glacier Monitoring Service (WGMS, 2021), https://doi.org/10.5904/wgms-fog-2021-05.

Spatio-Temporal Changes of Mass Balance in the Ablation Area of the Muz Taw Glacier, Sawir Mountains, from Multi-Temporal Terrestrial Geodetic Surveys

The glaciers in the Sawir Mountains are an important freshwater resource, and glaciers have been experiencing a continuing retreat over the past few decades. However, studies on detailed glacier mass changes are currently sparse. Here, we present the high-precision evolution of annual surface elevation and geodetic mass changes in the ablation area of the Muz Taw Glacier (Sawir Mountains, China) over the latest three consecutive mass-balance years (2017–2020) based on multi-temporal terrestrial geodetic surveys. Our results revealed clearly surface lowering and negative geodetic mass changes, and the spatial changing patterns were generally similar for the three periods with the most negative surface lowering (approximately −5.0 to −4.0 m a−1) around the glacier terminus. The gradient of altitudinal elevation changes was commonly steep at the low elevations and gentle in the upper-elevation parts, and reduced surface lowering was observed at the glacier terminus. Resulting emergence velocities ranged from 0.11 to 0.86 m a−1 with pronounced spatial variability, which was mainly controlled by surface slope, ice thickness, and the movement of tributary glaciers. Meanwhile, emergence velocities slightly compensated the surface ablation at the ablation area with a proportion of 14.9%, and dynamic thickening had small contributions to glacier surface evolution. Limited annual precipitation and glacier accumulation may result in these weak contributions. Higher-resolution surveys at the seasonal and monthly scales are required to get insight into the mass balance processes and their mechanism.

Atmosphere Driven Mass-Balance Sensitivity of Halji Glacier, Himalayas

The COupled Snowpack and Ice surface energy and mass balance model in PYthon (COSIPY) was employed to investigate the relationship between the variability and sensitivity of the mass balance record of the Halji glacier, in the Himalayas, north-western Nepal, over a 40 year period since October 1981 to atmospheric drivers. COSIPY was forced with the atmospheric reanalysis dataset ERA5-Land that has been statistically downscaled to the location of an automatic weather station at the Halji glacier. Glacier mass balance simulations with air temperature and precipitation perturbations were executed and teleconnections investigated. For the mass-balance years 1982 to 2019, a mean annual glacier-wide climatic mass balance of −0.48 meters water equivalent per year (m w.e. a−1) with large interannual variability (standard deviation 0.71 m w.e. a−1) was simulated. This variability is dominated by temperature and precipitation patterns. The Halji glacier is mostly sensitive to summer temperature and monsoon-related precipitation perturbations, which is reflected in a strong correlation with albedo. According to the simulations, the climate sensitivity with respect to either positive or negative air temperature and precipitation changes is nonlinear: A mean temperature increase (decrease) of 1 K would result in a change of the glacier-wide climatic mass balance of −1.43 m w.e. a−1 (0.99m w.e. a−1) while a precipitation increase (decrease) of 10% would cause a change of 0.45m w.e. a−1 (−0.59m w.e. a−1). Out of 22 circulation and monsoon indexes, only the Webster and Yang Monsoon index and Polar/Eurasia index provide significant correlations with the glacier-wide climatic mass balance. Based on the strong dependency of the climatic mass balance from summer season conditions, we conclude that the snow–albedo feedback in summer is crucial for the Halji glacier. This finding is also reflected in the correlation of albedo with the Webster and Yang Monsoon index.

Ice thickness estimates of Lemon Creek Glacier, Alaska, from active-source seismic imaging

AbstractLemon Creek Glacier, a temperate valley glacier in the Juneau Icefield of Southeast Alaska, is the site of long running (>60 years) glaciological studies. However, the most recent published estimates of its thickness and subglacial topography come from two ~50 years old sources that are not in agreement and do not account for the effects of years of negative mass balance. We collected a 1-km long active-source seismic line on the upper section of the glacier parallel and near to the centerline of the glacier, roughly straddling the equilibrium-line altitude. We used these data to perform joint reflection-refraction velocity modeling and reflection imaging of the glacier bed. We find that this upper section of Lemon Creek Glacier is as much as 150 m (~65%) thicker than previously suggested with a large overdeepening in an area previously believed to have a uniform thickness. Our results lead us to reinterpret the impact of basal motion on ice flow and have a significant impact on expectations of subglacial hydrology. We suggest that further efforts to develop a whole-glacier model of subglacial topography are necessary to support studies that require accurate models of ice thickness and subglacial topography.

Reanalysing the 2007–19 glaciological mass-balance series of Mera Glacier, Nepal, Central Himalaya, using geodetic mass balance

AbstractThe 2007–19 glaciological mass-balance series of Mera Glacier in the Everest Region, East Nepal, is reanalysed using the geodetic mass balance assessed by differencing two DEMs obtained from Pléiades stereo-images acquired in November 2012 and in October 2018. The glaciological glacier-wide annual mass balance of Mera Glacier has to be systematically decreased by 0.11 m w.e. a−1to match the geodetic mass balance. We attribute part of the positive bias of the glaciological mass balance to an over-estimation of the accumulation above 5520 m a.s.l., likely due to a measurement network unable to capture its spatial variability. Over the period 2007–19, Mera Glacier has lost mass at a rate of −0.41 ± 0.20 m w.e. a−1, in general agreement with regional averages for the central Himalaya. We observe a succession of negative mass-balance years since 2013.

A long glacier mass balance record analysis in Chinese Urumqi Glacier No. 1 and the relationships with changes in large-scale circulations

The 57 years of annual and seasonal mass balance records from observed mass balance made by the Tienshan Glaciological Station on Urumqi Glacier No. 1 (UG 1), Tienshan Mountains, showed a detailed understanding of the spatial and temporal variability that reflect changes in the UG1 at regional scales. Glacier mass balances of UG1 showed negatively decreasing and accelerated mass loss since 1960. There were 42 negative mass balance years and 15 positive mass balance years during 1960–2016. The abrupt change analysis showed from the year of 1993 with a shift to more negative balance. UG 1 is in the anomalous anticyclone edge zone, and this has facilitated the inter-decadal increase in summer precipitation over the Tienshan Mountains. Judged from the values of correlation coefficients and spatial distribution of all the stations in Xinjiang, mass balance change of UG1 appears to be controlled mainly through air temperature variations. While analysis shows that high correlation of mass balances of UG1 with EA/WR which indicated that the mass balance variability of UG1 is closely related to global climate phenomena.

Mass-balance observation, reconstruction and sensitivity of Stok glacier, Ladakh region, India, between 1978 and 2019

AbstractWe present the first-ever mass-balance (MB) observation (2014–19), reconstruction (between 1978 and 2019) and sensitivity of debris-free Stok glacier (33.98°N, 77.45°E), Ladakh Region, India. In-situ MB was negative throughout the study period except in 2018/19 when the glacier witnessed a balanced condition. For MB modelling, three periods were considered based on the available data. Period I (1978–87, 1988/89) witnessed a near balance condition (−0.03 ± 0.35 m w.e. a−1) with five positive MB years. Whereas Period II (1998–2002, 2003–09) and III (2011–19) experienced high (−0.9 ± 0.35 m w.e. a−1) and moderate (−0.46 ± 0.35 m w.e. a−1) negative MBs, respectively. Glacier area for these periods was derived from the Corona, Landsat and PlanetScope imageries using a semi-automatic approach. The in-situ and modelled MBs were in good agreement with RMSE of 0.23 m w.e. a−1,R2= 0.92,P< 0.05. The average mass loss was moderate (−0.47 ± 0.35 m w.e. a−1) over 28 hydrological years between 1978 and 2019. Sensitivity analysis showed that the glacier was more sensitive to summer temperature (−0.32 m w.e. a−1°C−1) and winter precipitation (0.12 m w.e. a−1for ± 10%). It was estimated that ~27% increase in precipitation is required on Stok glacier to compensate for the mass loss due to 1°C rise in temperature.

Estimation of Shortwave Solar Radiation on Clear-Sky Days for a Valley Glacier with Sentinel-2 Time Series

Downward surface shortwave radiation (DSSR) is the main energy source for most glacial melting, and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) data have been used extensively in the inversion of input parameters for estimating DSSR. However, for valley glaciers under complex climatic conditions, the values of MODIS atmospheric products, especially aerosol products, are often invalid, and TM images are always saturated with snow. Furthermore, an estimation model based on optical satellite images must simultaneously consider terrain and atmospheric effects and the transient nature of ice/snow albedo. Based on a high-resolution (12 m) digital elevation model (DEM), the newly launched Sentinel-2 satellites, rather than MODIS and TM, were used to provide input data for our published mountain radiation scheme in a valley glacier. Considering Laohugou Glacier No. 12 as the study area, 62 typical Sentinel-2 scenes were selected and spatiotemporal DSSR variations on the glacier surface were obtained with a 10 m spatial resolution during a mass-balance year from September 2017 to August 2018. Ground-based measurements on 52 clear-sky days were used for validation and the mean bias error (MBE = −16.0 W/m2) and root-mean-square difference (RMSD = 73.6 W/m2) were relatively low. The results confirm that DSSR is affected mainly by the solar zenith angle and atmospheric attenuation in flat areas of valley glaciers, while in areas with complex terrain, the DSSR received by the glacier surface is affected primarily by the terrain and ice/snow albedo, which exhibits very high spatial heterogeneity.

Long-range terrestrial laser scanning measurements of annual and intra-annual mass balances for Urumqi Glacier No. 1, eastern Tien Shan, China

Abstract. The direct glaciological method provides in situ observations of annual or seasonal surface mass balance, but can only be implemented through a succession of intensive in situ measurements of field networks of stakes and snow pits. This has contributed to glacier surface mass-balance measurements being sparse and often discontinuous in the Tien Shan. Nevertheless, long-term glacier mass-balance measurements are the basis for understanding climate–glacier interactions and projecting future water availability for glacierized catchments in the Tien Shan. Riegl VZ®-6000 long-range terrestrial laser scanner (TLS), typically using class 3B laser beams, is exceptionally well suited for repeated glacier mapping, and thus determination of annual and seasonal geodetic mass balance. This paper introduces the applied TLS for monitoring summer and annual surface elevation and geodetic mass changes of Urumqi Glacier No. 1 as well as delineating accurate glacier boundaries for 2 consecutive mass-balance years (2015–2017), and discusses the potential of such technology in glaciological applications. Three-dimensional changes of ice and firn–snow bodies and the corresponding densities were considered for the volume-to-mass conversion. The glacier showed pronounced thinning and mass loss for the four investigated periods; glacier-wide geodetic mass balance in the mass-balance year 2015–2016 was slightly more negative than in 2016–2017. Statistical comparison shows that agreement between the glaciological and geodetic mass balances can be considered satisfactory, indicating that the TLS system yields accurate results and has the potential to monitor remote and inaccessible glacier areas where no glaciological measurements are available as the vertical velocity component of the glacier is negligible. For wide applications of the TLS in glaciology, we should use stable scan positions and in-situ-measured densities of snow–firn to establish volume-to-mass conversion.

Switch in chemical weathering caused by the mass balance variability in a Himalayan glacierized basin: a case of Chhota Shigri Glacier

ABSTRACTLong-term data (2003–2015) on meltwater chemistry, mass balance and discharge of a benchmark glacier (Chhota Shigri Glacier, India) were studied to determine any association between these variables. To infer the factors governing the alteration of chemical weathering processes in glacierized basins, multi-annual records of the hydrochemical indices (Ca2++Mg2+/Na++K+) and the C-ratio were also examined. A succession of negative mass balance years has resulted in a decline in solute concentrations in the runoff, as discharge has increased. The (Ca2++Mg2+/Na++K+) and C-ratio are highest during periods of negative annual mass balance, when the spatial extent of the channelized drainage system increases. Conversely, these ratios are lowest in positive mass balance years, when the spatial extent of the channelized drainage system decreases, and chemical weathering in the distributed drainage system becomes more dominant. This paper is the first to show the inter-annual linkages between meltwater chemistry, mass balance and discharge for a valley glacier.

Geodetic reanalysis of annual glaciological mass balances (2001–2011) of Hintereisferner, Austria

Abstract. This study presents a reanalysis of the glaciologically obtained annual glacier mass balances at Hintereisferner, Ötztal Alps, Austria, for the period 2001–2011. The reanalysis is accomplished through a comparison with geodetically derived mass changes, using annual high-resolution airborne laser scanning (ALS). The grid-based adjustments for the method-inherent differences are discussed along with associated uncertainties and discrepancies of the two methods of mass balance measurements. A statistical comparison of the two datasets shows no significant difference for seven annual, as well as the cumulative, mass changes over the 10-year record. Yet, the statistical view hides significant differences in the mass balance years 2002/03 (glaciological minus geodetic records = +0.92 m w.e.), 2005/06 (+0.60 m w.e.), and 2006/07 (−0.45 m w.e.). We conclude that exceptional meteorological conditions can render the usual glaciological observational network inadequate. Furthermore, we consider that ALS data reliably reproduce the annual mass balance and can be seen as validation or calibration tools for the glaciological method.

NHM–SMAP: spatially and temporally high-resolution nonhydrostatic atmospheric model coupled with detailed snow process model for Greenland Ice Sheet

Abstract. To improve surface mass balance (SMB) estimates for the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS), we developed a 5 km resolution regional climate model combining the Japan Meteorological Agency Non-Hydrostatic atmospheric Model and the Snow Metamorphism and Albedo Process model (NHM–SMAP) with an output interval of 1 h, forced by the Japanese 55-year reanalysis (JRA-55). We used in situ data to evaluate NHM–SMAP in the GrIS during the 2011–2014 mass balance years. We investigated two options for the lower boundary conditions of the atmosphere: an offline configuration using snow, firn, and ice albedo, surface temperature data from JRA-55, and an online configuration using values from SMAP. The online configuration improved model performance in simulating 2 m air temperature, suggesting that the surface analysis provided by JRA-55 is inadequate for the GrIS and that SMAP results can better simulate physical conditions of snow/firn/ice. It also reproduced the measured features of the GrIS climate, diurnal variations, and even a strong mesoscale wind event. In particular, it successfully reproduced the temporal evolution of the GrIS surface melt area extent as well as the record melt event around 12 July 2012, at which time the simulated melt area extent reached 92.4 %. Sensitivity tests showed that the choice of calculation schemes for vertical water movement in snow and firn has an effect as great as 200 Gt year−1 in the GrIS-wide accumulated SMB estimates; a scheme based on the Richards equation provided the best performance.

Mass Balance Evolution of Black Rapids Glacier, Alaska, 1980–2100, and Its Implications for Surge Recurrence

Surge-type Black Rapids Glacier, Alaska, has undergone strong retreat since it last surged in 1936-37. To assess its evolution during the late 20th and 21st centuries and determine potential implications for surge likelihood, we run a simplified glacier model over the periods 1980-2015 (hindcasting) and 2015-2100 (forecasting). The model is forced by daily temperature and precipitation fields, with downscaled reanalysis data used for the hindcasting. A constant climate scenario and an RCP 8.5 scenario based on the GFDL-CM3 climate model are employed for the forecasting. Debris evolution is accounted for by a debris layer time series derived from satellite imagery (hindcasting) and a parametrized debris evolution model (forecasting). A retreat model accounts for the evolution of the glacier geometry. Model calibration, validation and parametrization rely on an extensive set of in situ and remotely sensed observations. To explore uncertainties in our projections, we run the glacier model in a Monte Carlo fashion, varying key model parameters and input data within plausible ranges. Our results for the hindcasting period indicate a negative mass balance trend, caused by atmospheric warming in the summer, precipitation decrease in the winter and surface elevation lowering (climate-elevation feedback), which exceed the moderating effects from increasing debris cover and glacier retreat. Without the 2002 rockslide deposits on Black Rapids' lower reaches, the mass balances would be more negative, by ~20% between the 2003 and 2015 mass-balance years. Despite its retreat, Black Rapids Glacier is substantially out of balance with the current climate. By 2100, ~8% of Black Rapids' 1980 area are projected to vanish under the constant climate scenario and ~73% under the RCP 8.5 scenario. For both scenarios, the remaining glacier portions are out of balance, suggesting continued retreat after 2100. Due to mass starvation, a surge in the 21st century is unlikely. The projected retreat will affect the glacier's runoff and change the landscape in the Black Rapids area markedly.

Modelling 60 years of glacier mass balance and runoff for Chhota Shigri Glacier, Western Himalaya, Northern India

ABSTRACTGlacier mass balance and runoff are simulated from 1955 to 2014 for the catchment (46% glacier cover) containing Chhota Shigri Glacier (Western Himalaya) using gridded data from three regional climate models: (1) the Rossby Centre regional atmospheric climate model v.4 (RCA4); (2) the REgional atmosphere MOdel (REMO); and (3) the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). The input data are downscaled to the simulation grid (300 m) and calibrated with point measurements of temperature and precipitation. Additional input is daily potential global radiation calculated using a DEM at a resolution of 30 m. The mass-balance model calculates daily snow accumulation, melt and runoff. The model parameters are calibrated with available mass-balance measurements and results are validated with geodetic measurements, other mass-balance model results and run-off measurements. Simulated annual mass balances slightly decreased from −0.3 m w.e. a−1 (1955–99) to −0.6 m w.e. a−1 for 2000–14. For the same periods, mean runoff increased from 2.0 m3 s−1 (1955–99) to 2.4 m3 s−1 (2000–14) with glacier melt contributing about one-third to the runoff. Monthly runoff increases are greatest in July, due to both increased snow and glacier melt, whereas slightly decreased snowmelt in August and September was more than compensated by increased glacier melt.