Market Participants Research Articles

Cultural Origins of Business Formation in the Context of Kinship and Trust

This paper presents a conceptual framework connecting historical kinship structures and generalized trust into modern business formation. Kinship intensity, defined as the degree of strength in family ties, is shaping the social and economic outlook of societies. Building upon the existing literature, I argue that societies with strong kinship ties often exhibit collectivist characteristics, leading to less trust towards outsiders. This hinders market efficiency and collaborative partnerships, resulting in business formation being largely confined to family-owned enterprises. Conversely, societies with loose kinship structures exhibits higher level of generalized trust that enable to promote engagements beyond family networks. This promotes establishing larger firms with strangers, more efficient markets, and greater cooperation with foreign firms. The paper suggests that kinship and trust behavior are deeply-rooted in culture and influence social and economic development. It is important for policymakers to support initiatives that foster trust beyond family ties in order to promote collaboration among diverse market participants.

Advancements in Soybean Price Forecasting: Impact of AI and Critical Research Gaps in Global Markets

Soybeans, a vital source of protein for animal feed and an essential industrial raw material, are the most traded agricultural commodity worldwide. Accurate price forecasting is crucial for maintaining a resilient global food supply chain and has significant implications for agricultural economics and policymaking. This review examines over 100 soybean price forecast models published in the last decade, evaluating them based on the specific markets they target—futures or spot—while highlighting how differences between these markets influence critical model design decisions. The models are also classified into AI-powered and traditional categories, with an initial aim to conduct a statistical analysis comparing the performance of these two groups. This process unveiled a fundamental gap in best practices, particularly regarding the use of common benchmarks and standardised performance metrics, which limits the ability to make meaningful cross-study comparisons. Finally, this study underscores another important research gap: the lack of models forecasting soybean futures prices in Brazil, the world’s largest producer and exporter. These insights provide valuable guidance for researchers, market participants, and policymakers in agricultural economics.

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE GDP STRUCTURE OF THE G7 COUNTRIES: ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS AND TRENDS

This research article will examine the gross domestic product (GDP), which is one of the most widely used indicators of national economic performance. GDP represents the total output of a national economy over a specified period, with seasonal fluctuations duly adjusted. The most comprehensive measure of GDP is also adjusted for inflation, thereby enabling the assessment of changes in output rather than changes in the prices of goods and services. The significance of this indicator can be demonstrated by the fact that GDP is frequently employed to assess the relative size of national economies. Governments, financial market participants, and business leaders are most interested in changes in GDP over time, as reflected in annual growth or decline rates, because this allows them to make assumptions and develop plans for the future. The government uses previous years' GDP figures to formulate policies on interest rates, taxes, and trade policy. The study of GDP in the G7 countries is particularly important and relevant, as these countries represent the central government of the whole world, have a great influence on the economy, discuss global problems and develop solutions in the shortest possible time. The object of the study is the 7 members of the G7, namely: Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States, while the subject is the basic indicators of the national economy of each individual country, analysed in the dynamics over the past 10 years.

Integrating sentiment information for risk prediction: the case of crude oil futures market in China

AbstractThis paper incorporates investor sentiment indexes into the traditional standard heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) model to improve its power on predicting crude oil futures risk. Using the 5-min high-frequency trading data to construct the daily realized volatility, the original and revised HAR models are used for in-sample regression and out-of-sample forecasting on a daily, weekly, and monthly basis. The results show that the sentiment indexes and the search trend contain incremental information for forecasting the realized volatility of INE crude oil futures in the short and medium term. The search volume is the best indicator for weekly risk forecasting of INE crude oil futures. No robust index can improve the performance of HAR-type model on long-term risk prediction. This paper thus highlights that market participants should select appropriate strategies to minimize risk when volatility is at stake for their decisions.

Can gold- and USD-backed stablecoins hedge against US stock market volatility? Evidence from a quantile coherency approach

ABSTRACT Emerging markets are increasingly appealing to market participants seeking alternative investments. Using the Quantile Coherency method, this study investigates the interrelatedness between stablecoins backed by two types of traditional assets (gold and US dollars) and the volatility indices of the US stock market across different frequency domains and market conditions. The potential of gold- and USD-backed stablecoins to hedge stock market volatility varies. There is a stronger connection under long-term and extreme conditions than in the short-/medium- and normal markets. The empirical results suggest that the USD-backed stablecoins should be used as hedging assets against US stock market volatility (typically showing a non-negative correlation) rather than the gold-backed stablecoins (which often exhibit a negative correlation). These findings provide valuable insights for market participants and academic research.

Comparative Analysis of Market Clearing Mechanisms for Peer-to-Peer Energy Market Based on Double Auction

This paper aims to develop an optimisation-based price bid generation mechanism for the sellers and buyers in a double-auction-aided peer-to-peer (P2P) energy trading market. With consumers being prosumers through the continuous adoption of distributed energy resources, P2P energy trading models offer a paradigm shift in energy market operation. Thus, it is essential to develop market models and mechanisms that can maximise the incentives for participation in the P2P energy market. In this sense, the proposed approach focuses on maximising profit at the sellers, as well as maximising cost savings at the buyers. The bids generated from the proposed approach are integrated with three different market clearing mechanisms, and the corresponding market clearing prices are compared. A numerical analysis is performed on a real-life dataset from Ausgrid to demonstrate the bids generated from sellers/buyers, as well as the associated market clearing prices throughout different months of the year. It can be observed that the market clearing prices are lower when the solar generation is higher. The statistical analysis demonstrates that all three market clearing mechanisms can achieve a consistent market clearing price within a range of 5 cents/kWh for 50% of the time when trading takes place.

Determinants of smallholder wheat farmers’ participation in cluster farming in Lemu-Bilbilo and Hetosa Districts of Arsi Zone, Ethiopia

AbstractDespite devoting significant efforts to develop and implement policies aimed at enhancing the sustainability of its food systems, promoting resilience, and reducing greenhouse gas emissions, Ethiopia encounters constraints with these approaches. Therefore, this study was conducted to identify the determinants of smallholder farmers’ participation in wheat cluster farming in the Lemu-Bilbilo and Hetosa Districts of Arsi Zone, Ethiopia. The study utilized cross-sectional data and a multistage sampling procedure to select a total of 381 respondents from the two districts of Arsi Zone, Ethiopia. The study employed a binary probit regression to achieve the research objectives. The study indicates that sex of household head, farm size, household head education level, access to credit, membership in farmer’s cooperative, access to information from government extension, access to information on climate, and farmers climate perception were significant and positively affecting cluster farming participation, whereas distance from the nearest market and off-farm activities participation had a negative relationship with cluster farming participation decision. Cluster farming practices provide a practical means of lessening the effects of stresses related to climate change. Therefore, to increase participation in cluster farming, it is essential to strengthen efforts to raise awareness about climate change and its impacts among farming communities. The study also recommends that institutional and governmental support is essential in the areas of cooperatives, education, extension services, credit availability, climate-related information, and infrastructure development, especially in the area of market accessibility. Furthermore, the issue of gender differences in CF involvement should be addressed by policy and development initiatives.

Analysis of Factors Influencing Agricultural Commercialisation Among Youth Group in Agricultural Output Market: Empirical Evidence from Mwanza City and Ukerewe Districts, Tanzania

Although agriculture has great potential for Sub-Saharan Africa particularly in the creation of decent jobs for youth, the youth are less attracted and reluctant to pursue agriculture as both a career and activity for livelihood due to several aspects. For this reason, the study examined the Agricultural Commercialisation among youth groups in the agricultural Output Market in the Mwanza region, Tanzania. The cross-sectional study used a quantitative and qualitative approach and included ninety-three (93) youth groups from two selected Districts (Mwanza City and Ukerewe District) Data were analyzed with the Commercialisation Index and Tobit Regression Model with the aid of statistical tools for analysis which were R-Software (Ri3863.6.1) and SPSS version 20. The results showed that the commercialisation index for this study is about 79.4 %, then empowered youth groups were highly participating in the agricultural output market for both Mwanza City and Ukerewe District. This justifies the assumption of the Commercialisation Index (CI) when CI is greater than 50% of farmers are considered they be commercial oriented which in other words they participate in agricultural output markets. Moreover, the degree of participation in agricultural output among empowered youth groups was also influenced by market experience, market arrangement and market infrastructure. The participation of empowered youth groups from both agricultural output markets seemed also to be determined by the education level of group leaders. Youth groups in which their leaders had attained diploma education level had less participation in the agricultural output market as compared to groups with leaders who attained primary school education level

Quantile Connectedness Amongst Green Assets Amid COVID-19 and Russia–Ukraine Tussle

With the advent of greening the global economy and the introduction of green financial assets, this study examines the connectedness and spillover effect of green assets using a QVAR approach focusing on the average connectedness and connectedness under extreme market conditions. The time of the study captures the crucial global incidents of COVID-19 and Russia–Ukraine war to investigate the effect of major incidents on the connectedness of green assets. The results of the QVAR analysis reveal that green assets are moderately connected under normal market conditions; however, their connection is strengthened under extreme market conditions. IOTA and SP Green Bonds are the net receivers of shocks from other assets, and SP Green Bonds are connected to green energy indices and green cryptocurrencies during turbulent markets. Since green cryptocurrencies are closely connected, a lower portion of them should be added to portfolios, whereas SP Green Bonds qualify as a good diversifying agent in a portfolio. The study has significant implications for market participants, investors, and policymakers.

Analysis of Interconnectedness in Indian Subcontinent Remittances from the Gulf Cooperation Countries

Indian subcontinent is a major remittance receiver. With similar labor market characteristics, their workers go to same host countries. Therefore, their labor is substitutable for each other with high degree of connectedness with direct consequences on remittance inflows. Yet, due to social and political considerations in host countries, substitution may not take place. The issue is an empirical question. We study interactions of remittance inflows into India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka via frequency connectedness. We find a low degree of spillovers across countries, i.e., dynamics of remittance inflows in each country are largely explained by internal factors, not due to spillovers from other countries. That is, remittance inflows in these countries are essentially independent. We also observe that information processing is faster in the short-run than the long-run indicating that market participants are aware of dynamics in other markets. The findings have policy implications for unemployment and foreign exchange.

Conflict-mediation, consensus-building, and co-production: Three models of co-governance in China’s neighborhood regeneration

Existing literature on co-governance has extensively discussed how the state interacts with various actors beyond the government to promote urban development. In China, the discourse and practice of co-governance illustrate different trajectories from the West. As the urban development strategies in China shifted from property-led expansion to inner-city neighborhood regeneration, the importance of multiscalar participation in governing community affairs has been increasingly emphasized, moving beyond the government-market dichotomy and emphasizing negotiation and collaboration among the government, market participants, stakeholders, and the public. Based on practical experience and participatory action research in Guangdong province, we identify three models of co-governance in recent neighborhood regeneration practices: (1) the state-led co-creation model for conflict-mediation purposes, which primarily relies on local government and party organization to mediate inherited conflicts and rebuild local trust for promoting the regeneration agenda; (2) the professional-led place-making model for consensus-building purposes, which focuses on reshaping daily habits and beautifying public spaces to achieve consensus-based aspirations for neighborhood development; and (3) the co-production model, driven by society-community partnership, which reflects the emergence of new commons, encompassing dynamic reconfigurations on both socio-economic and institutional dimensions. Through case studies in Guangzhou and Foshan, specifically in the Enninglu, Keyuan, and Dongfeng neighborhoods, we illustrate how local governments enhance the inclusiveness and effectiveness of neighborhood governance by engaging various third-party actors, such as local enterprises, community planners, and residents’ self-help groups. Local governments are skillfully avoiding direct confrontation with residents by incorporating community planners and empowering social actors to promote co-production among multiscalar participants. By examining the emergence, functioning, and dilemmas of different co-governance models in China’s latest neighborhood regeneration practices, this study enriches the existing framework of the state-market-society landscape, demonstrating the plurality of the state’s governance intentions and highlighting the political space in which grassroots governance is constituted.

THE POTENTIAL FOR PEER-TO-PEER ELECTRICITY TRADING IN GEORGIA

The global energy transition is fundamentally reshaping electricity markets, moving from centralized systems reliant on fossil fuels to decentralized, renewable energy solutions. Distributed energy resources such as solar panels and storage batteries are empowering consumers to become active participants in the energy market. Peer-to-peer (P2P) electricity trading, enabled by blockchain technology, presents a new model for consumers to trade surplus energy directly with one another, bypassing traditional suppliers. This article explores the potential of P2P electricity trading in Georgia, a country with significant renewable energy resources but limited experience with decentralized energy systems. As Georgia aligns its energy policies with European regulations, the development of a P2P trading market could enhance energy security, empower prosumers, and drive local economic development. Through an analysis of global trends, technological innovations, and the current Georgian energy landscape, this article assesses the opportunities and challenges in implementing P2P trading. By building the necessary infrastructure and fostering public participation, Georgia has the potential to transform its energy market and contribute to a more resilient and sustainable energy future.

SPATIAL MARKET INTEGRATION AND PRICE TRANSMISSION OF COWPEA (Vigna unguiculata) IN NIGERIA

The study investigated spatial market integration and price transmission of cowpea in Nigeria. Secondary data on monthly basis for wholesale cowpea price per kilogram were used for the study. Augmented Dicky Fuller Test, Johansen Co-integration model, Granger Causality Test and Variance Decomposition of Vecto Autoregressive Model and Error Correction Model were used as analytical tools. Augmented Dickey Fuller test revealed that first difference all the price series were stationary and lag one (1) is the optimum lag length appropriate for the specified variables. Cointegration test results of the markets proved that despite that these markets were spatially separated geographically, they were connected in terms of price transmission across them, both in the long and short run but the level of integration is weak. It was observed that price changes are temporary and would converge to an equilibrium within a given time span. Granger causality test results indicate that one pair showed bi-directional causation between Bauchi and Enugu States. Thirty two (32) links showed unidirectional and three (3) pairs such as Niger→Abia, Niger→Lagos and Sokoto→Cross River States pairs showed no causal relationship between them. The study showed that Gombe and River States cowpea price had a faster speed of adjustment to equilibrium than other states. It also revealed that that 1% increase in Jigawa State will result to 20.5% increase in Enugu state and 1 % increase in River State will lead to 40.6% and 64.8% increase in Gombe and Nasarawa States in the short run respectively. The study concluded that, there is integration between the cowpea prices of source and destination states, but the degree of integration is weak. It is recommended that market participants should adopt standardize trading, settlement practice and invest in technology (electronic trading platform) to reduce operational inefficiencies in different markets to support integration.

Zmiany umów w sprawie zamówień publicznych w świetle wyroku Trybunału Sprawiedliwości Unii Europejskiej z 7 grudnia 2023 r.

The article deals with a judgment that is important from the perspective of interpreting the public procurement law on contract modifications, namely, the judgment of the CJEU of 7 December 2023. The judgment draws attention to at least two incorrect practices. First, “unforeseeable” circumstances, the occurrence of which may justify a contract modification, are sometimes interpreted too broadly. Second, contract modifications that are not made “explicitly” (by an agreement or annex modifying the contract) are not treated as contract modifications within the meaning of the regulations. The conclusions resulting from the judgment are a relevant signal for the entire public procurement market, a signal whose identification by participants in the public procurement market is mandatory. The article takes a closer look at the motives of the CJEU, as well as the implications of the ruling for participants in the public procurement market and empirical research. According to the author’s research, the contract modification rationale for the occurrence of “unforeseeable” circumstances is often used as a justification for contract modification. However, research supports the thesis that there are numerous cases in which it may be questionable to apply the rationale allowing contract modification due to the occurrence of “unforeseeable” circumstances. The correct interpretation of the CJEU judgment in question is all the more important in view of the above (the author’s research) and in terms of the potential increase in the number of public contracts (associated with the use of European Funds). Modification of a contract covered by EU funding in a manner that is not in compliance with the law may result in a 25% adjustment of the funding received.

Overview of retail investment instruments of the Russian economy

Features of the current stage of development of Russia increase the relevance of studying problems associated with the expansion of internal sources of financing economic growth, one of which may be citizens’ savings. To attract private capital more widely, the national financial system can and should provide a large range of tools for private investors that meet the needs of citizens in terms of profitability and safety of funds. The paper has considered the key tools of retail investment, which are currently widely used in domestic practice. Alternative ways of private investment have also been explored. They can be applied depending on the needs of specific actors, market participants, or citizens. The development of a line of instruments for the retail investment – deposits, long-term individual investment accounts, products of research and production associations, insurance products, etc., their availability is one of the conditions for the effective functioning of the domestic financial market and, as a consequence, the Russian economy as a whole. The analysis of the essence, trends, opportunities, and risks of the retail investment instruments will allow us to assess the effectiveness of the activities of financial regulators in this area and identify promising and appropriate areas for its improvement.

Energy Market Price Forecasting and Financial Technology Risk Management Based on Generative AI

Abstract: The volatility of global energy markets, particularly electricity prices, plays a crucial role in influencing international economic activities. With the ongoing global energy transition and the push for low-carbon development, predicting electricity prices has become increasingly important for policymakers and market participants. This paper explores the forecasting capabilities of the ARIMA and LSTM models in analyzing electricity prices in the United States, drawing from data spanning 2001 to 2024.ARIMA, a traditional time series model, is valued for its simplicity and effectiveness in capturing linear trends, while LSTM, a deep learning-based model, excels at handling long-term dependencies in complex datasets. This study reveals that while both models offer valuable insights, each exhibits limitations. ARIMA struggles with non-linear patterns and volatility, whereas LSTM tends to underestimate extreme price values. The findings highlight the potential of hybrid models that combine traditional and machine learning approaches to enhance forecasting accuracy in the increasingly dynamic energy market. This research provides essential guidance for improving decision-making processes in the context of the global shift towards clean energy.

The Socioeconomic Impact of Fertility Rates on Nigeria's Development: A Policy Perspective

This paper explores the socioeconomic impact of Nigerias high fertility rate and its influence on the countrys economic development. With a fertility rate of 5.14 children per woman in 2022, far exceeding the global average, Nigeria faces significant demographic challenges. The analysis focuses on three critical data points: fertility rate, female tertiary education rate, and female labor force participation rate. The findings highlight how cultural factors, educational attainment, and labor market participation contribute to sustained high fertility rates, particularly in rural areas. Additionally, the paper examines how these factors exacerbate gender inequality and limit economic opportunities for women, thereby hindering Nigeria's overall economic progress. Policy recommendations include promoting female education and workforce participation to help manage population growth and stimulate economic development.

Research of opportunities for the ecosystem approach to career planning by students at the State University of Management

The article presents the results of studying the possibilities of an ecosystem approach to career planning by students at the State University of Management (hereinafter referred to as SUM). At first, the gap between the level of practical training of graduates of Russian universities and the requirements of employers has been actualised. Then, the need for joint efforts of all interested labour market participants to create conditions for students’ conscious planning of career growth at all stages of education is emphasised. The experience of intra-university cooperation using the STC (student team consulting) method between the marketing department and practical training department in 2022–2023 has showed that solving this problem involves integrating, on an ecosystem basis, activities for the study of professional academic disciplines, project-based learning, practical training, and employment. As an experiment, 6 student consulting teams have solved a set of interrelated tasks, including the creation and ongoing maintenance of the Career Centre page in the VK social network, advertising campaigns and interviews at “Career Day in Transport and Logistics”, surveys on the employment of graduates and assessment of student satisfaction with practical training, analytical review of the labour market in Russia in 2020–2023 with a report at the All-Russian scientific and practical conference, examination of 5 ideas for marketing research projects in the field of career planning by students of the SUM with testing in social networks and assessments of the influence of actors in its ecosystem. In conclusion, based on the results of the research, the directions for the ecosystem approach to career planning by students at the SUM are formulated.

Predicting zombie firms after the COVID-19 pandemic using explainable artificial intelligence

This study examines various artificial intelligence (AI) models for predicting financially distressed firms with poor profitability (“Zombie firms”). In particular, we adopt the Explainable AI (“XAI”) approach to overcome the limitations of the previous AI models, which is well-known as the black-box problem, by utilizing the Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations (LIME) and the Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP). This XAI approach thus enables us to interpret the prediction results of the AI models. This study focuses on the Korean sample from 2019 to 2023, as it is expected that the COVID-19 pandemic increases the number of zombie firms. We find that the XGBoost model based on a boosting technique has the best predictive performance among several AI models, including the traditional ones (e.g. the logistic regression). In addition, by using the XAI approach, we provide visualized interpretations for the prediction results from the XGBoost model. The analysis further reveals that the return on sales and the selling, general and administrative costs are the most impactful variables for predicting zombie firms. Overall, this study focusing on several AI models not only shows the improvement for the prediction of zombie firms (relative to the traditional models) but also increases the reliability of the prediction results by adopting the XAI approach, providing several implications for market participants, such as financial institutions and investors.

Innovative policy of WTO on trade in the global financial services market

The World Trade Organization (WTO) has been actively working to address the various challenges facing the global financial services market and is of great importance for the regulation of trade in general, including trade in financial services. This is done through the WTO’s guidance in the conclusion of trade agreements containing provisions on financial services, such as the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS). The main goal of the GATS is to create conditions for legalizing and regulating trade in financial services between member countries. It promotes the creation of a legal framework for trade in services, including financial services, and establishes principlesand procedures to be followed by market participants. In addition, the WTO facilitates the exchange of information and best practices between countries to promote innovative development of the financial sector (FSC), Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA), and stimulates competition, which can foster innovation. However, specific policies on innovation in the financial sector are usually determined by national governments and regulators, and the WTO helps to create a general framework for their development. However, it should be noted that ongoing efforts are needed to address the remaining challenges and to promote a more efficient and accessible global financial services market. The article examines the key features of the regulatory framework for modern financial instruments in individual countries, as well as the mechanisms of WTO regulation of the global financial services market.