Market Outcomes Research Articles

Digital development and employment gender gaps during the COVID-19 pandemic: evidence from Latin America and the Caribbean

PurposeDespite its negative effects, the COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated digital development in Latin America and the Caribbean. The rapid increase in connectivity and digital services helped mitigate the pandemic's negative impact on the labor markets, especially for those with enough flexibility to continue working from home. The shock affected women due to their household responsibilities and labor market characteristics.Design/methodology/approachThis paper examines how digital development may have affected gender gaps in employment and job loss in the context of the COVID-19 crisis. Using a sample of countries from Latin America and the Caribbean and various econometric techniques, we explore the digitalization gender gaps and job market outcomes during the pandemic.FindingsOur findings suggest that the expansion on digital technologies are associated with increased female employment and reduced job losses for both men and women. These findings hold even after controlling for child care, household chores and the COVID-19 shock. Our results are also robust to various econometric techniques.Originality/valueThe paper leverages on unique dataset that was collected during the pandemic and the results are contrasted with existing macro data with robust results.

Sorting and Wage Premiums in Immoral Work

Abstract We use surveys, laboratory experiments and administrative data to study how heterogeneity in the perceived immorality of work and in workers' aversion to acting immorally impact labor market outcomes. Immoral work is associated with higher wages, both in administrative data and in causal experimental evidence. Individuals more willing to engage in immoral conduct find employment in firms and industries perceived as immoral less aversive and have higher employment rates in immoral work in the laboratory. These phenomena appear to be driven by impure social motives, reflecting a desire not to be involved with immoral work, rather than by consequentialist concerns.

The long-run impacts of banning affirmative action in US higher education

Abstract This paper estimates the long-run impacts of banning affirmative action on men and women from under-represented minority (URM) racial and ethnic groups in the United States. Using data from the US Census and American Community Survey, we use a difference-in-differences framework to compare the college degree completion, graduate degree completion, earnings, and employment of URM individuals to non-URM individuals before and after affirmative action bans went into effect across several US states. We also employ event study analyses and alternative estimators to confirm the validity of our approach and discuss the generalizability of the findings. Results suggest that banning affirmative action results in a decline in URM women’s college degree completion, earnings, and employment relative to non-Hispanic White women, driven largely by impacts on Hispanic women. Thus, affirmative action bans resulted in an increase in racial/ethnic disparities in both college degree completion and earnings among women. Effects on URM men are more ambiguous and indicate significant heterogeneity across states, with some estimates pointing to a possible positive impact on labour market outcomes of Black men. These results suggest that the relative magnitude of college quality versus mismatch effects vary for URM men and women and highlight the importance of disaggregating results by gender, race, and ethnicity. We conclude by discussing how our results compare with others in the literature and directions for future research.

Sixty years of the Voting Rights Act: progress and pitfalls

Abstract We review the literature on the effects of the 1965 Voting Rights Act (VRA), which removed formal restrictions to Black political participation. After a brief description of racial discrimination suffered by Black Americans since Reconstruction, we introduce the goals that the VRA was meant to achieve. Next, we discuss the local level impact of the law on political participation and representation, on public goods provision and policing practices, and on labour market outcomes. We then turn to Whites’ reactions, from political realignment to electoral counter-mobilization to changes in voting rules and arrests patterns. We conclude by discussing how the evidence reviewed in this article can inform policy-making and the design of legislation aimed at reducing racial discrimination and inequality.

Social psychology research in the commercial art market: challenges and opportunities

This study investigates the social psychological dynamics of the commercialized art market, employing a multifaceted approach to uncover the complex interplay of factors influencing artistic valuation and market behavior. Utilizing data from 500 top-selling artists and 1000 major collectors over a decade, we conduct quantitative analyses, including time series analysis, principal component analysis, and network structure examination. Our findings reveal the primacy of artist reputation and market demand in price formation, accounting for 45% of the variance in artwork prices. We identify cyclical market patterns aligned with major auction events and economic trends. Network analysis exposes the critical role of intermediaries and community structures in market interactions. Addressing endogeneity concerns through instrumental variable regression, we establish a robust causal link between artist reputation and market outcomes. This research provides valuable insights for artists, galleries, collectors, and investors, offering a comprehensive framework for understanding the contemporary art market's complexities. Our study contributes to the growing body of literature on art market dynamics, highlighting the intersection of social psychology, economics, and cultural trends in shaping artistic value.

Refugees Labor Market Integration in Kenya

We analyze labor market outcomes among refugees in Kenya during the COVID-19 pandemic. The analyses are based on eight waves of the COVID-19 Rapid Response Phone Surveys dataset. We employ static panel regression, and test for robustness of the results in a staggered difference-in-difference regression. Findings suggest that employment rate, hours worked, and labor income differed across the waves. Employment rate rose in the last four waves relative to the first four waves of the pandemic. Average hours worked declined relative to the level at the onset of the pandemic. Whereas gender insignificantly affected employment rate, females worked fewer hours compared to males. The higher the educational attainment, the likelier the refugee was employed. College graduates earned higher incomes compared to refugees without formal education. Males and females had similar labor market outcomes for the same level of education. In terms of coping actions, adopters were less likely to be employed in waves 5-8, worked fewer hours, and had lower labor incomes compared to non-adopters. In line with the findings, we recommend, among other things, the implementation of job interventions that target refugees, and proper targeting of social protection and education programs to incentivize work, and raise refugees’ human capital.

Assessing the impact of monetary instruments on Ukraine’s labor market during increased risks

This comprehensive study investigates the complex relationship between monetary instruments and Ukraine’s labor market against the backdrop of heightened risks. In the light of the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war, economic instability, and significant migration dynamics, understanding the role of monetary policies in shaping labor market dynamics is crucial. Employing a robust empirical approach, the research aims to analyze the impact of monetary instruments on key labor market indicators, including employment levels, unemployment rates, and wage dynamics. By utilizing econometric and mathematical methodologies (system of simultaneous equations), the study seeks to provide nuanced insights into the effectiveness of monetary policies in addressing labor market challenges amidst heightened risks. Furthermore, the research tries to identify potential strategies and policy interventions to mitigate adverse effects on the labor market and foster resilience in the face of uncertainty. The findings of this study are anticipated to contribute to a deeper understanding of the complex interplay between monetary policy measures and labor market outcomes in Ukraine. Additionally, the insights derived from this research are expected to inform policymakers, economists, and stakeholders in designing more targeted and effective policy responses to address labor market challenges and promote sustainable economic development. Overall, this study aims to provide valuable insights into the role of monetary instruments in navigating Ukraine’s labor market through turbulent times and fostering resilience in the face of heightened risks.

Competing with Theories: Using Awareness and Confidence to Secure Resources and Rents

An assumption of factor market efficiency is often used to grant primacy to firms’ existing unique and valuable resources as the source of economic rents. But this assumption is difficult to reconcile with observed market outcomes. For instance, five of the six companies with the highest global market capitalization in 2022 were upstarts in their industries with few resources at their origins. More surprising, three of these entrants were assisted by incumbents with vastly superior resources in assembling the resources they required. In this paper we explore how entrants compete with theories to secure resources from incumbents and capture rents. We introduce a modeling approach in which theories with causal logic generate awareness of valuable potential future states and shape the beliefs about payoffs and probabilities associated with these states. We combine work in the theory-based view and value capture theory to distinguish among three distinct sources of economic rents that are potentially available to entrants: awareness rents, confidence rents, and resource rents. We explore the circumstances under which these three types of rents are available. By exploring the role of theories and awareness in value creation and capture, our paper seeks to deepen our understanding of how entrants both attract resources and secure rents.

Behavioral Finance: Investor Psychology in Volatile Markets

Behavioral finance offers critical insights into how psychological biases shape investor decision-making, particularly during periods of market volatility. Traditional finance theories assume rational behavior, but behavioral finance highlights how emotions and cognitive biases like overconfidence, herding, loss aversion, and anchoring significantly impact market dynamics. In volatile markets, these biases become more pronounced, often resulting in irrational actions that deviate from rational expectations. This paper explores the role of investor psychology in influencing market outcomes, examining biases and emotional factors that drive investor actions. Practical implications of this understanding suggest strategies to mitigate risk and stabilize markets, such as behavioral nudges and AI-driven advisory tools. The paper also identifies research gaps, especially in understanding the influence of digital platforms and social media on investor behavior, indicating areas for further study to deepen our grasp of investor psychology in an increasingly digital world.

Differential Impacts of Anticipated Success on Employment Outcomes Among Adults Who Stutter.

Stuttering is associated with disparities in labor market outcomes among young adults, but little is known about how labor market outcomes associated with stuttering change over time. Therefore, this study characterized longitudinal associations between stuttering and early life expectations, job satisfaction, receipt of employer-provided insurance benefits, and income. The analysis used data from three waves of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health, which contained 16,653 individuals aged 18-43 years interviewed over 18 years. First, regression models evaluated the likelihood of employment between people who stutter (PWS) and people who do not stutter (PWNS). Second, conditional on employment, two-stage likelihood models quantified differences in their job satisfaction, receipt of employer-provided insurance benefits, and earned income, controlling for age, sex, race, and household characteristics. Finally, the relationship between their reported education and income expectations and these employment outcomes was evaluated. Although stuttering was not related to the likelihood of working or receiving employer-provided benefits, PWS were 20%-22% (SE = 0.06-0.07) less likely to be satisfied with their jobs than PWNS, and dissatisfaction increased with age. Additionally, the odds of earning a higher income were significantly lower for PWS than for PWNS. PWS who anticipated attending college and earning a middle-class income were more likely to be satisfied with their jobs and earn a higher income. However, PWS were less likely to expect that they would earn a middle-class income (PWNS: 46.4%, PWS: 36.3%) or graduate from college (PWNS: 70.9%, PWS: 58.4%) compared to PWNS. Labor market inequities associated with stuttering persist and increase with age. PWS have significantly lower expectations for their likelihood of future success, and these expectations predict their future occupational outcomes.

Gains from Contractualization: Evidence from Labor Regulations on Chinese Workers

Abstract The 2008 Labor Contract Law of China stipulates that all employment relationships must be covered by a written labor contract. This regulation considerably strengthened employment protection for workers. Using a unique longitudinal dataset, the China Labor-force Dynamics Survey (2012, 2014, and 2016 waves), this article estimates the impact of the formal contractualization of labor relations on workers’ labor market outcomes, social insurance participation, and job satisfaction. We find that obtaining a labor contract was strongly associated with an increase in salary, a decrease in working overtime hours, and greater participation in unemployment and pension insurances. In terms of job satisfaction, workers who obtained a labor contract reported being less satisfied with their workplace environment and income than they had anticipated. This is not to suggest that workers are not benefiting from the law. Instead, it suggests that workers had higher expectations from benefits gained through contractualization than what they derived.

Youth Employment Challenges and Opportunities in Pakistan: An Econometric Analysis

The involvement of young people in Pakistan's job market is the subject of this dissertation. This work highlights two main benefits of the research conducted using micro data. First, it breaks out the labor market behaviors of teenagers in Pakistan by age group. Then, using econometric approaches, it explains what variables influence youth work chances in Pakistan. According to the research, several young people start working at a young age, which may affect their future productivity and income. At the beginning of their professions, young people frequently have a higher unemployment rate; nevertheless, this number decreases with time. In addition, there were notable disparities in the labor market outcomes for male and female teenagers based on area. Unemployment rates for young women are higher than those for young men in several regions of the nation. Although young people in Baluchistan are more prepared to enter labor than their counterparts in other regions, the study's main conclusion shows that their employment prospects are poorer. Several characteristics, the findings of a logistic regression analysis demonstrate that the job chances of youth in Pakistan are highly impacted by age, gender, marital status, emigration, geography, educational achievement, and family characteristics. In addition, studies show that Pakistani teenagers are a heterogeneous group, reflecting a wide variety of personal traits and perspectives on employment that are influenced by their home context. Policymakers should see Pakistani youth as something other than a monolithic entity. Unemployment is a problem in Pakistan due to several factors.

An Evolutionary Game Analysis of China’s Power Battery Export Strategies Under Carbon Barriers

With the continuous evolution of international trade, the global market has been steadily expanding while also facing increasing challenges, particularly in relation to the introduction of environmental policies such as carbon barriers. Our research explores how China’s power battery manufacturers can adapt their export strategies to the EU’s carbon barrier policies. Additionally, we examine the roles of government regulations, research institutions, and manufacturers in either facilitating or hindering compliance with carbon reduction objectives. Using evolutionary game theory, we construct models involving government entities, manufacturers, and research institutions to systematically analyze market evolution, strategic interactions, and outcomes among these stakeholders. Our analysis focuses on understanding the competitive dynamics faced by exporting countries under stringent environmental policies and provides strategic insights to guide export strategies. Taking the EU’s carbon barrier policy as a case study, we explore Chinese battery manufacturers’ adaptive strategies and decision-making processes as they respond to shifting market demands and regulatory environments. The findings not only offer valuable insights into exporting countries but also provide policymakers with information on international trade and industrial policy design. Furthermore, we validate our model through numerical simulations and conduct sensitivity analyses on key parameters. The results underscore the importance of governmental adoption of punitive and incentive policies, revealing their substantial impact on stakeholder behavior. Additionally, the study highlights how participants’ pre-cooperation losses and post-cooperation gains influence participation rates and the speed at which stakeholder consensus is reached. By offering a novel approach with which to address carbon barrier challenges, this research contributes valuable perspectives on environmental regulations’ strategic and policy implications in global trade.

Unintended consequences of maternity leave entitlements on female labor market outcomes in China

This study provides the first empirical evidence of the impact of maternity leave entitlements on labor market outcomes for women of childbearing age in urban China. We exploit a reform during which approximately two-thirds of the provinces in China extended their leave entitlements from 2014 to 2016 and employ a triple-difference strategy to deal with the identification. The results suggest unintended effects, as leave entitlement extensions led to a reduction in the likelihood of working, formal employment, and wage for women of childbearing age relative to their counterparts. We further establish that greater reliance on employer liability may be the main mechanism behind the unintended effects, highlighting the importance of payment schemes. This study provides novel evidence and mechanisms for the labor market effect of maternity leave in women of childbearing age and provides new insights for maternity leave related policy designs.

AI-Driven Optimization of Financial Quantitative Trading Algorithms and Enhancement of Market Forecasting Capabilities

Abstract: The application of artificial intelligence (AI) into financial markets has revolutionised quantitative trading and market forecasting by increasing the efficiency of algorithmic trading, improving the accuracy of market predictions and facilitating real-time market decisions. This paper will provide an overview of the application of Al in the financial markets focusing on the use of machine learning (ML), deep learning (DL) and reinforcement learning (RL) in optimizing the trading algorithms, specifically the capability of Al to process very high data points and complex relationships that other quantitative models are unable to capture. We will discuss trading algorithms such as XGBoost, deep neural networks such as long short-term memory (LSTM) networks and convolutional neural networks (CNNs), how they can outperform traditional quantitative trading models and real-time decision making in stock price prediction, pattern recognition and trading strategy optimisation. We will also look at Al-enhanced predictive models that utilise deep learning and layered models, such as Natural language processing (NLP) sentiment analysis to capture the public sentiment in the market to forecast employing diverse datasets such as historical prices, market volatility, macroeconomic factors and social media sentiment to improve the forecasting accuracy. By going through several experiments and case studies, this paper will shed light on the impact of entrusting quantitative trading and market forecasting decisions to AI for improved performance and reduced errors. There are many challenges ahead but AI plays a constructive role in improving the trading strategies and forecasting market outcomes accurately.

Air Pollution and the Labor Market: Evidence from Wildfire Smoke

Abstract We study how air pollution impacts the U.S. labor market by analyzing the effects of drifting wildfire smoke. We link satellite-based smoke plume data with labor market outcomes to estimate that an additional day of smoke exposure reduces quarterly earnings by about 0.1%. Extensive margin responses, including employment reductions and labor force exits, explain 13% of the overall earnings losses. The implied welfare costs from lost earnings due to air pollution exposure is on par with standard valuations of the mortality burden. The findings highlight the importance of labor market channels in air pollution policy responses.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the labour market outcomes of Indigenous persons living off-reserve in Canada

The recent COVID-19 pandemic had an impact on the labour force activity of many, but the effect of the crisis on the labour market outcomes of Indigenous peoples in Canada is relatively understudied. Using data from the master files of the Canadian Labour Force Survey (LFS), this analysis first considers the relative probability of four mutually exclusive labour force states: employed; unemployed; not in the labour force, but not discouraged; and not in the labour force due to being a discouraged worker. Differences in hours worked as well as earnings comparing Indigenous and non-Indigenous workers are then examined. The findings reveal that, regardless of the COVID-19 pandemic, Indigenous Canadians were relatively more likely to be either unemployed or not in the labour force (including being a discouraged worker) than to be employed as compared to their non-Indigenous counterparts. Indigenous workers earned roughly 3 percent less than their non-Indigenous counterparts. The earnings penalty experienced by Indigenous workers, was slightly smaller at the bottom of the wage distribution at 2 percent, increasing to roughly 3.3 percent at the top 90th percentile of the earnings function. During the COVID-19 period, while the risk of unemployment was lower for Indigenous persons, the risk of being a discouraged worker was even higher for Indigenous Canadians during the pandemic. Using an ad-hoc supplement to the LFS conducted by Statistics Canada in response to the pandemic, this study finds that Indigenous respondents were less likely than non-Indigenous respondents to either work from home or receive any form of Canada relief benefit from April 2020 to October 2021. The implications of these findings suggest a role for policy makers to improve access to funding supports for Indigenous workers and students seeking to pursue higher education to improve labour market outcomes. Additionally, employers play an important role in ensuring that Indigenous workers have fair access to job opportunities.

Nurse practitioner oversight ratios and labor market outcomes

AbstractNurse practitioners are important to the US healthcare system; however, many states impose physician oversight ratios, which limit the number of NPs a physician may supervise. In this study, we evaluate the effect of eliminating physician oversight ratios on the supply of NPs by conducting case studies of three states—New York, Nevada, and Pennsylvania—using synthetic control and related approaches. Surprisingly, we find that eliminating oversight ratios had little effect on the labor supply of NPs. For New York, we also analyze the effects of eliminating oversight ratios on wages and hours worked and again find null results.

Postsecondary pathways and graduate earnings: does transfer make cents?

ABSTRACT Post-secondary education (PSE) experienced explosive growth and diversification over the past century, affording students a range of increasingly complex pathways that they can travel to acquire a credential. In various jurisdictions, governments have made significant investments to facilitate student uptake of unconventional transfer pathways that involve stops at multiple institutions. But, there has been limited effort to understand the impact of travelling these unconventional pathways on graduate labour market outcomes. Moreover, existing studies across many jurisdictions typically lack access to detailed measures of academic performance, demographics, and other pertinent controls that could explain the relationship between PSE pathway uptake and labour market outcomes. Through this study we model this relationship by drawing on a large custom linkage between student records from the Toronto District School Board (TDSB) and three large administrative datasets housed in Statistics Canada’s Education and Labour Market Longitudinal Linkage Platform (ELMLP). This linkage offers census-level coverage of the population of interest and allows us to longitudinally track students from their Grade 9 year at the Toronto District School Board (TDSB), into and through Ontario PSE, and then as they enter the labour market. Our analyses unearth a series of pathway-based earnings disparities that prove robust to available controls. We elaborate on the implications of these findings for policymakers and draw attention to their relevance for scholars interested in school-to-work transitions in Canada and abroad.

A Critical Review of the Common Ownership Literature

The rapid growth in index funds and significant consolidation in the asset-management industry over the past few decades has led to higher levels of common ownership and increased attention on the topic by academic researchers. A consensus has yet to emerge from the literature regarding the consequences of increased common ownership on firm behavior and market outcomes. Given the potential implications for firms and investors alike, it is perhaps not surprising that policy makers, legal scholars, finance and accounting academics, and practitioners have all taken a keen interest in the subject. In this article, we provide an overview of the theoretical underpinnings of common ownership and critically review the empirical literature. Measurement issues and identification challenges are detailed, and a discussion of plausible causal mechanisms is provided. Across the newest papers employing the most credible identification techniques, relatively little evidence has been found that common ownership causes lower competition. However, further research is necessary before broad conclusions can be reached.