Market-based Financial System Research Articles

Financial instability in Europe: Does geopolitical risk from proximate countries and trading partners matter?

Using a spatial econometric approach, we measure 28 European countries' foreign geopolitical risks (GPR) from their proximate countries, export destinations, and import origins from January 1985 to January 2024 at a monthly frequency. Based on difference GMM estimation on dynamic panel data model, we find that the foreign GPRs increase Europe's financial instability through potential channels of surging energy inflation and capital flight to the U.S. Compared with high-income countries with a bank-based financial system, low-income countries with a market-based financial system are more fragile to the foreign GPRs. These findings can help European financial authorities improve prudential regulation policies.

Environmental performance, financial development, systemic risk and economic uncertainty: What are the linkages?

The paper studies the relationships among the composite indicators of environmental performance, financial development, systemic risk and economic uncertainty for a balanced panel of 57 countries during 2010–2020. The analysis builds on panel local projections by Jordá (2005). In addition to the whole panel, this technique also applies to two sub-panels obtained via the K-means clusterization conditional on a set of composite indicators of environmental performance. We underscore a two-way relationship between systemic risk and environmental performance. An increase in systemic risk improves the environmental quality, albeit to the detriment of economic growth and energy consumption, whereas ex ante higher values of the key composite indicators of environmental performance mitigate systemic risk. Financial development adversely affects environmental performance. Contrary to the prevailing view, this effect is mostly related to the development of financial markets compared to the development of financial institutions. Economic uncertainty is found totally unrelated to the composite indicators of environmental performance. The aforementioned key findings generally hold after splitting the whole panel into the two sub-panels. Overall, our results induce policymakers to treat with caution certain policy recommendations aimed at improving environmental quality, since reducing systemic risk, increasing financial development as a whole or shifting towards a market-based financial system do not necessarily help accomplish this goal.

ESG scores and debt costs: Exploring indebtedness, agency costs, and financial system impact

This paper provides evidence that conventional risk measures (Merton Distance to Default, Altman Z-Score, Z-Score and Volatility) fail to capture all the relevant information to assess borrower risk. Moreover, the paper shows that the additional information contained in ESG scores has a negative relationship with the cost of debt, and this relationship is economically significant. In addition, companies whose sustainability generates major concerns (i.e., the most indebted companies and those with the highest agency costs) benefit the most from ESG performance. Finally, the paper provides evidence that the return on companies' ESG efforts in terms of the cost of debt is higher in countries with bank-based financial systems, where long-term relationships between lenders and borrowers prevail, than in countries with market-based financial systems.

Green finance and energy transition to achieve net-zero emission target

This study measured the effects of green financing and energy transition on COP26 targets for 40 countries, namely, 14 economies with market-based financial systems and 26 countries with bank-based financial systems, from 2010 to 2020. The findings confirmed that, in the market-based financial system, GDP per capita has a positive coefficient, while for countries with a bank-based financial system, GDP per capita has a negative coefficient on greenhouse gas emissions. With a 1% improvement in the energy transition of countries under a market-based financial structure, greenhouse gas emissions will decrease by 0.08%. The central practical policies recommended by this research are enhancing green loans, bank financing, and green bank guarantees.

ASSESSMENT OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MARKET-BASED FINANCIAL SYSTEM AND GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT PAR CAPITA, KENYA.

This study assessed the relationship of market-based financial system development indicators and Gross Domestic Product par capita in Kenya. for the period running from 1997 to 2007. The Gross Domestic Product was as low as 1.2% in the first macroeconomic stability in the period running from 1997 to 2001 and was as high as 7.0% in the second macroeconomic stability in the period running from 2002 to 2007. Data capture was by census technique and checking of secondary material on Kenya National Bureau of Statistics(KNBS), Nairobi Security Exchange(NSE), and Capital Market Authority(CMA), Data analysis and interpretation was through descriptive statistics and inferential statistics. The financial indicators of a market-based financial system were characterised as size, activity and efficiency indicators. Stock market capitalization/GDP, private bond market capitalization/GDP, public bond market capitalization/ GDP were size indicators. Stock market total value traded / GDP was activity indicator. Stock market turn- over ratio was efficiency indicator. This study was in relation to literature review which depicts some financial indicators as being counterproductive to each other and in their contribution to GDP per capita. In the first macroeconomic stability (1997-2001), the bank based financial system was79% against 21% of the market based financial system. In the second macroeconomic stability (2002-2007), the bank based financial system was 54% against 46% of the marked based financial system. Financial indicators (Public bond capitalization Ksh.bn/GDP, Market Capitalization Ksh.bn/GDP, turnover ratio and total value traded) as significant predictor of GDP per capita and significantly correlated to GDP par capita in Kenya.

Profitability or Longevity? Cross-Country Variations in Corporate Performance

The previous literature shows that firms’ purposes and behaviors vary across countries, but few studies have empirically examined whether firm performance varies across countries. This study compares the performance of the world’s largest corporations across 47 countries. Using the data for firms listed in the Fortune Global 500 from 1973 to 2020, we explore whether there are cross-country variations in two dimensions of corporate performance: profitability and longevity. We find significant variations in both profitability and longevity across countries. We also observe that firms in some countries are highly (less) profitable but less (more) likely to survive for a long time. We regress profitability and longevity on country-level institutional factors: financial systems, laws, and national cultures. We find that (i) a market-based (bank-based) financial system is positively (negatively) related to a firm’s profitability, but negatively (positively) related to its longevity; (ii) common law (civil law) is positively (negatively) related to the profitability of a firm, but negatively (positively) related to its longevity; and (iii) high individualism, low uncertainty avoidance, and low long-term orientation are positively related to profitability, but negatively related to longevity. These results suggest that a country’s formal and informal institutions significantly affect a firm’s purpose, behavior, and performance.

Dynamic Asset-Backed Security Design

Abstract Borrowers obtain liquidity by issuing securities backed by the current period payoff and resale price of a long-lived collateral asset, and they are privately informed about the payoff distribution. Asset price can be self-fulfilling: a higher asset price lowers adverse selection and allows borrowers to raise greater funding, which makes the asset more valuable, leading to multiple equilibria. Optimal security design eliminates multiple equilibria, improves welfare, and can be implemented as a repo contract. Persistent adverse selection lowers debt funding, generates volatility in asset prices, and exacerbates credit crunches. The theory demonstrates the role of asset-backed securities on stability of market-based financial systems.

UK pension funds’ patience and liquidity in the age of market-based finance

ABSTRACT Pension funds have often failed to meet expectations in terms of providing ‘patient capital’. Explanations for this lapse have ranged over regulatory and ideational factors. We argue that a new ‘impatient’ phenomenon is emerging that requires further explanation: pension funds are becoming more mindful of their liquidity and collateral management, and engage in pro-cyclical investment behaviour. We show how UK pension funds have adapted their investment strategies, investing significantly in collective funds, including in foreign and in ‘alternative assets’, and setting aside protection assets as collateral for their derivatives and repo transactions. This behaviour has increased pension funds’ exposure to and participation in liquidity spirals, forcing them to dispose of assets during crises and contributing to the overall pro-cyclicality of the contemporary market-based financial system. This was most recently highlighted by the instability of UK government bond markets in September 2022. Drawing from Minsky and the emerging literature on Critical Macro-Finance, we argue that this new pension fund behaviour is in response to structural changes in the financial markets in which they operate.

Finance in a More Globalized Economy

ABSTRACT This paper empirically examines whether globalization affects the level, volatility and structure of financial development as well as the competition and credit composition of the banking sector. Using dynamic panel estimation techniques, we find, in a sample of advanced and developing countries, that both trade and financial openness promote financial development, raise financial volatility, and result in a more market-based financial system, the effects that moderate with increased openness. It is also found that both trade and financial openness lead to a more competitive, less concentrated banking industry and a greater share of household credit relative to enterprise credit, the effects that dampen with increased openness.

The Board Structure and Performance in IPO Firms: Evidence from Stakeholder-Oriented Corporate Governance

This study investigates the internal mechanisms as an important factor for shareholders and stakeholders in initial public offering (IPO) firms with stakeholder-oriented corporate governance. Over the period of 2009–2016, we examine the role of independent directors in Japanese stakeholder-oriented corporate governance. According to previous research, the monitoring role of independent directors is strengthened in countries with a market-based financial system. Our empirical analyses show that independent directors do not effectively mitigate conflicts among shareholders such as IPO underpricing in a stakeholder-oriented corporate governance framework. Alternatively, accounting expertise may contribute to mitigating IPO underpricing in accordance with U.S. corporations. The participation of bank-affiliated directors in IPO firms further contributes to the mitigation of underpricing. Accordingly, these findings imply that bank ties through Horizontal Keiretsu’s bank-appointed directors are critical for mitigating conflicts among shareholders in IPO firms. These results imply that stakeholder-oriented corporate governance systems contribute to reducing conflicts among stakeholders.

Should central bank liquidity be a vehicle for fiscal disciplining?

Abstract With notable exceptions, central banking scholars typically pay little attention to collateral frameworks, and therein, to the haircuts applied to the collateral assets pledged to access central bank liquidity. One such exception, Kjell Nyborg (2017) argues that the collateral policies adopted by the European Central Bank (ECB) aggravated the sovereign debt crisis and put the survival of the euro at risk. Drawing on the money view, we argue that Nyborg’s critique of the ECB’s crisis response is misguided and that his proposal to deepen and reinforce the ECBs role in the fiscal disciplining of member states via its collateral framework would be procyclical and destabilizing. We identify core principles for collateral policies suitable to stabilise market-based financial systems: (i) countercyclical haircuts, (ii) suspension of collateral valuation practices; and should these not be sufficient to abate collateral market liquidity strains, (iii) outright purchases of collateral assets.

Openness, financial structure, and bank risk: International evidence

Using panel data from a large cross-country sample covering 97 countries over the period 1996–2017, we combine 2SLS procedure with system GMM estimation to study the relationship between openness, financial structure and bank risk. The main contribution of the paper is that we identified a new channel, i.e. the financial structure channel, through which financial openness reduces bank risk. In particular, we find that as financial openness increases, a country's financial system tends to be more market-based, and a more market-based financial system is associated with higher bank market power, better information sharing and more revenue diversification, all of which contribute to the reduction in bank risk. We also find that the effect of inflow restrictions on bank risk is more pronounced than that of outflow restrictions. These results highlight the importance of an appropriate design of a country's opening-up strategy to match the evolution of its financial structure to increase bank stability.

China’s Financial System – A Comparative Analysis of Its Characteristics With Banking- or Market-Based Financial Systems

China’s Financial System – A Comparative Analysis of Its Characteristics With Banking- or Market-Based Financial Systems

The effect of borrower country financial system and corporate governance system types on the spread of syndicated loans

PurposeThis study aims to analyse the effect of borrower’s countries on syndicated loan spreads, featuring countries according to institutional factors, namely, financial systems and corporate governance systems.Design/methodology/approachThis study is an empirical investigation based on a unique sample of more than 85,000 syndicated loans from 122 countries. The paper uses standard and two-stage least squares regression analysis to test whether the types of financial and corporate governance systems affect loan spreads.FindingsThe paper finds that borrowers from countries with financial systems oriented towards the banking-based paradigm pay lower interest rate spreads than those from countries with financial systems oriented towards the market-based paradigm. In addition, there is evidence that borrowers from countries with more developed financial systems pay lower spreads. The results also show that borrowers from countries with an Anglo-Saxon governance system pay higher spreads than borrowers from countries with a Continental governance system.Research limitations/implicationsThis study does not consider potential promiscuous relationships that can arise at the ownership structure and governance level between banks and borrowers and may affect loan spreads.Practical implicationsThis study suggests that financial and corporate governance systems are essential factors in the financial intermediation process. Furthermore, the evidence indicates that corporates with higher potential agency costs and higher potential information asymmetry are requested to pay higher spreads. Therefore, the opportunities to such corporates invest optimally tend to be scarcer.Originality/valueThe paper highlights the impact of institutional factors on the cost of financing, characterising the countries according to the type of financial system and the type of corporate governance system. The study finds that borrowers from countries with bank-based financial systems pay lower interest rate spreads than those from countries with market-based financial systems. The paper also highlights how the level of financial development affects the cost of financing. The paper focusses on non-financial firms, unlike financial firms, which have been the focus of several empirical studies on topics relating to the cost of funding and corporate governance.

The Role of Institutional Environment Driving Firms' Attention to Forward-looking Aspirations

When are firms’ search behaviors regulated by their future performance expectations below their future performance targets (forward-looking determinant of search behavior) versus their performance below their historical or social aspirations (backward-looking determinant of search behavior)? Firms’ search behaviors are influenced both by their forward- and backward-looking determinants, yet we do not know much about the contingencies that make firms more/less attentive to the forward-looking versus backward-looking search determinants. Our fundamental argument is that firms’ resource dependence on distinct environmental actors in different institutional settings makes their search more attentive to forward- or backward-looking search determinants. We specifically argue that although capital market demands in market-based financial systems make firms’ search forward-looking, demands and pressures of banks in bank-based financial systems make their search activities backward-looking. Our findings suggest that although the impact of future performance expectations below targets on firms’ search activities is intensified in market-based financial systems, firms’ search activities are more influenced by their performance decline below aspirations in bank-based financial systems. We discuss implications for theory and practice.

The zero-leverage phenomenon in European listed firms: A financing decision or an imposition of the financial market?

This article provides empirical evidence on the zero-leverage phenomenon for a sample of European listed firms for the period 1995–2016. It is shown that there are two types of firms with zero leverage: the financially constrained firms that face obstacles in obtaining external finance, as predicted by the financial constraints hypothesis; and the financially unconstrained firms that maintain zero leverage as a consequence of a financing decision, which supports the financial flexibility hypothesis. The zero-leverage phenomenon is also influenced by the financial system that prevails in each country, being boosted (inhibited) in market-based (bank-based) financial systems, and by the country’s macroeconomic conditions, with the recent financial and sovereign debt crises increasing the propensity for zero leverage in market-based countries. We also find that the financial flexibility hypothesis seems to be more important in market-based systems and that the financial constraints approach did not gain importance during the crisis period. Our results are robust to the use of alternative measures of debt conservatism, explanatory variables, and econometric methods and maintain their validity when we allow for endogeneity in firm size and dividend payments. JEL CLASSIFICATION G32

How Banks Price Loans for LBOs: an Empirical Analysis of Spread Determinants *

This paper examines which factors determine the pricing of loans for LBOs, using a worldwide sample of 11,111 loans closed in the 2000–2016 period. Our findings are consistent with the hypotheses that loans for LBOs extended to borrowers in market- versus bank-based financial systems are differently priced, and that law and institutional characteristics are important determinants of spreads for deals closed in market-oriented countries. Despite LBO loan pricing differing significantly in normal versus crisis times, loans extended to borrowers in market-based financial systems have higher spreads than those where banks play a major role. Our results also support the hypothesis of tranching as a mechanism of reducing spreads by completing financial markets and mitigating informational asymmetries. Finally, a robust convex relationship between spread and maturity is found, suggesting higher market competition by banks and investors for standard, medium-term maturities.

Overcoming the loan-to-deposit ratio by a financial intermediation measure — A perspective instrument of financial stability policy

In cognizance of the role that the traditional loan-to-deposit (LTD) ratio fulfils for financial stability policy, the paper proposes extending this metric of liquidity and funding towards measuring attainment in financial intermediation. The proposed metric, financial intermediation measure (FIM), is a normative indicator and amends the descriptive nature of the LTD ratio, and is thus more suited to the needs of macroprudential regulation of financial systems. The metric is grounded in ideas of data envelopment analysis and is developed in conjunction with a data set on structural indicators provided by the World Bank. The FIM focuses upon the banking part of financial intermediation and measures whether a financial system is successful in transforming (bank) deposits into loans subject to feasibility restrictions applied to both the banking and securities markets. Utilization of the FIM is demonstrated for 48 financial systems of the world using data from 1993 to 2016 under different classifications applied to financial systems. The demonstration shows that the FIM is useful also for performance assessments of market-based financial systems without distinction.

The World Bank, Agricultural Credit, and the Rise of Neoliberalism in Global Development

ABSTRACT This article examines the development of the World Bank’s agricultural credit programming between 1960 and 1990. I show how these projects constituted key sites where neoliberal development governance was initially articulated, negotiated, and contested. Agricultural credit was a key point of emphasis for the Bank during its ‘Assault on Poverty’ era in the 1970s. Agricultural programming in this era reflected a strong emphasis on agricultural development through marketisation and commercialisation, yet also very clearly demonstrated clear points of ambivalence around the role of credit in relation to agricultural markets. Agricultural credit projects increasingly included implicit or explicit conditionalities linked to the marketisation of interest rates, the commercialisation of state-owned agricultural lenders, and the marketisation of wider financial sectors into the 1980s. But these efforts to marketize and commercialise agricultural credit through these projects often reflected mundane operational challenges as much as ideological shifts, and themselves largely failed even on their own terms. Looking at the evolution of agricultural credit projects thus shows how broadly neoliberal positions were arrived at in part through trial and error adjustments to operational concerns, as well as how fraught the promotion of market-based financial systems was in practice even in the structural adjustment era.

Financial structures, political risk and economic growth

Using a panel of 113 countries over the period from 1990 to 2013, this paper provides new empirical evidence to the intensive debate of whether financial structure is relevant for economic growth. Specifically, we evaluate the role of political risk, development stage and their interactions with the structure of the financial system. We find that on average a more market-based financial system is associated with a higher level of economic growth. This impact varies with different levels of political risk and different stages of economic development. Specifically, the comparative development of equity markets compared with banks appear to promote more economic growth in countries with lower political risk and at a better stage of economic development. Moreover, banks are more important to economic growth in over-market-based financial systems, whilst equity markets are more sensitive to economic growth in over-bank-based financial systems. Our paper provides new insights into the real effects of the mixture of banks and markets on the economy.