Mark-resight Data Research Articles

Survival of red knots in the northern Gulf of Mexico

Highly migratory shorebirds are among the fastest declining avian guilds, so determining causes of mortality is critically important for their conservation. Most of these species depend on a specific geographic arrangement of suitable sites that reliably provide resources needed to fuel physiologically demanding life histories. Long-term mark-resight projects allow researchers to investigate specific potential sources of variation in demographic rates between populations. Red Knots (Calidris canutus) occur in three relatively distinct regions across the northern Gulf of Mexico, and two of these areas have been experiencing episodic harmful algal blooms (red tide) with increased frequency in recent decades. Since knots are mostly molluscivorous during the nonbreeding season in the Gulf, they are potentially exposed to red tide toxins at high concentrations via their filter-feeding prey. We used long-term mark-resight data from Texas, Louisiana, and Florida (USA) to estimate apparent survival, and to assess the effects of red tides on survival of Red Knots. We also assessed effects of tracking devices deployed in conjunction with the projects over the years. While overall apparent annual survival rates were similar across the three locations (0.768 – 0.819), several red tide events were associated with catastrophically low seasonal (fall) survival in Florida (as low as 0.492) and Texas (as low as 0.510). Leg-mounted geolocators, but not temporary glued-on VHF tags, were associated with a reduction in apparent survival (~8%/year). Movement of knots between the three areas was rare and site fidelity is known to be high. Harmful algal blooms are predicted to increase in frequency and severity with climate change and increased anthropogenic degradation of coastal habitats, which may further endanger these as well as other shorebird populations around the world.

The long shadow of woody encroachment: An integrated approach to modeling grassland songbird habitat.

Animals must track resources over relatively fine spatial and temporal scales, particularly in disturbance-mediated systems like grasslands. Grassland birds respond to habitat heterogeneity by dispersing among sites within and between years, yet we know little about how they make post-dispersal settlement decisions. Many methods exist to quantify the resource selection of mobile taxa, but the habitat data used in these models are frequently not collected at the same location or time that individuals were present. This spatiotemporal misalignment may lead to incorrect interpretations and adverse conservation outcomes, particularly in dynamic systems. To investigate the extent to which spatially and temporally dynamic vegetation conditions and topography drive grassland bird settlement decisions, we integrated multiple data sources from our study site to predict slope, vegetation height, and multiple metrics of vegetation cover at any point in space and time within the temporal and spatial scope of our study. We paired these predictions with avian mark-resight data for 8 years at the Konza Prairie Biological Station in NE Kansas to evaluate territory selection for Grasshopper Sparrows (Ammodramus savannarum), Dickcissels (Spiza americana), and Eastern Meadowlarks (Sturnella magna). Each species selected different types and amounts of herbaceous vegetation cover, but all three species preferred relatively flat areas with less than 6% shrub cover and less than 1% tree cover. We evaluated several scenarios of woody vegetation removal and found that, with a targeted approach, the simulated removal of just one isolated tree in the uplands created up to 14 ha of grassland bird habitat. This study supports growing evidence that small amounts of woody encroachment can fragment landscapes, augmenting conservation threats to grassland systems. Conversely, these results demonstrate that drastic increases in bird habitat area could be achieved through relatively efficient management interventions. The results and approaches reported pave the way for more efficient conservation efforts in grasslands and other systems through spatiotemporal alignment of habitat with animal behaviors and simulated impacts of management interventions.

Site fidelity of migratory shorebirds facing habitat deterioration: insights from satellite tracking and mark-resighting

BackgroundSite fidelity, the tendency to return to a previously visited site, is commonly observed in migratory birds. This behaviour would be advantageous if birds returning to the same site, benefit from their previous knowledge about local resources. However, when habitat quality declines at a site over time, birds with lower site fidelity might benefit from a tendency to move to sites with better habitats. As a first step towards understanding the influence of site fidelity on how animals cope with habitat deterioration, here we describe site fidelity variation in two species of sympatric migratory shorebirds (Bar-tailed Godwits Limosa lapponica and Great Knots Calidris tenuirostris). Both species are being impacted by the rapid loss and deterioration of intertidal habitats in the Yellow Sea where they fuel up during their annual long-distance migrations.MethodsUsing satellite tracking and mark-resighting data, we measured site fidelity in the non-breeding (austral summer) and migration periods, during which both species live and co-occur in Northwest Australia and the Yellow Sea, respectively.ResultsSite fidelity was generally high in both species, with the majority of individuals using only one site during the non-breeding season and revisiting the same sites during migration. Nevertheless, Great Knots did exhibit lower site fidelity than Bar-tailed Godwits in both Northwest Australia and the Yellow Sea across data types.ConclusionsGreat Knots encountered substantial habitat deterioration just before and during our study period but show the same rate of decline in population size and individual survival as the less habitat-impacted Bar-tailed Godwits. This suggests that the lower site fidelity of Great Knots might have helped them to cope with the habitat changes. Future studies on movement patterns and their consequences under different environmental conditions by individuals with different degrees of site fidelity could help broaden our understanding of how species might react to, and recover from, local habitat deterioration.

Age-specific reproduction in female Steller sea lions in Southeast Alaska.

Age-, region-, and year-specific estimates of reproduction are needed for monitoring wildlife populations during periods of ecosystem change. Population dynamics of Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) in Southeast Alaska varied regionally (with high population growth and survival in the north vs. the south) and annually (with reduced adult female survival observed following a severe marine heatwave event), but reproductive performance is currently unknown. We used mark-resighting data from 1006 Steller sea lion females marked as pups at ~3 weeks of age from 1994 to 1995 and from 2001 to 2005 and resighted from 2002 to 2019 (to a maximum age of 25) to examine age-, region-, and year-specific reproduction. In the north versus the south, age of first reproduction was earlier (beginning at age 4 vs. age 5, respectively) but annual birth probabilities of parous females were reduced by 0.05. In an average year pre-heatwave, the proportion of females with pup at the end of the pupping season peaked at ages 12-13 with ~0.60/0.65 (north/south) with pup, ~0.30/0.25 with juvenile, and ~0.10 (both regions) without a dependent. In both regions, reproductive senescence was gradual after age 12: ~0.40, 0.40, and 0.20 of females were in these reproductive states, respectively, by age 20. Correcting for neonatal mortality, true birth probabilities at peak ages were 0.66/0.72 (north/south). No cost of reproduction on female survival was detected, but pup production remained lower (-0.06) after the heatwave event, which if sustained could result in population decline in the south. Reduced pup production and greater retention of juveniles during periods of poor prey conditions may be an important strategy for Steller sea lions in Southeast Alaska, where fine-tuning reproduction based on nutritional status may improve the lifetime probability of producing pups under good conditions in a variable and less productive environment.

Environmental drivers of demography and potential factors limiting the recovery of an endangered marine top predator

AbstractUnderstanding what drives changes in wildlife demography is fundamental to the conservation and management of depleted or declining populations, though making inference about the intrinsic and extrinsic factors that influence survival and reproduction remains challenging. Here we use mark–resight data from 2000 to 2018 to examine the effects of environmental variability on age‐specific survival and natality for the endangered western distinct population segment (wDPS) of Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) in Alaska, USA. Though this population has been studied extensively over the last four decades, the causes of divergent abundance trends that have been observed across the wDPS range remain unknown. We developed a Bayesian multievent mark–resight model that accounts for female reproductive state uncertainty. Annual survival probabilities for male pups (0.44; 0.36–0.53), female yearlings (0.63; 0.49–0.73), and male yearlings (0.62; 0.51–0.71) born in the western portion of the wDPS range, estimated here for the first time, were lower than those in the eastern portion of the wDPS range, estimated as: male pups (0.69; 0.65–0.74), female yearlings (0.76; 0.71–0.81), and male yearlings (0.71; 0.65–0.78). There was a higher proportion of young female breeders in the western portion of the range, but overall natality was lower (0.69; 0.47–0.96) than in the eastern portion of the range (0.80; 0.74–0.84). Additionally, pup mass had a positive effect on pup survival in the eastern portion of the range and a negative effect in the western portion of the range, potentially due to earlier weaning of heavier pups. Local‐ and basin‐scale oceanographic features such as the Aleutian Low, the Arctic Oscillation Index, the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation, chlorophyll concentration, upwelling, and wind in certain seasons were correlated with vital rates. However, drawing strong inferences from these correlations is challenging given that relationships between ocean conditions and an adaptive top predator in a dynamic ecosystem are exceedingly complex. This study provides the first demographic rate estimates for the western portion of the range where abundance estimates continue to decline. These results will advance efforts to identify factors driving regionally divergent abundance trends, with implications for population‐level responses to future climate variability.

Evaluation of ongoing Crested Ibis (Nipponia nippon) reintroduction using an integrated population model and Bayesian population viability analysis

Reintroduction has often been used as a technique for re‐establishing self‐sustaining animal populations that have become extinct within their indigenous range. To achieve conservation success, it is essential to accurately assess the demographic parameters and the IUCN Red List criteria of the population. However, acquiring data on all indicators and estimating criteria according to established definitions can be challenging. Here, we developed an integrated population model (IPM) and population viability analysis (PVA) framework to estimate all demographic parameters and criteria for a reintroduced population of Crested IbisNipponia nippon, and to project population dynamics under a range of release scenarios on Sado Island, Japan. Our IPM‐PVA framework integrated roost count and mark–resight data for 415 released and 203 wild‐hatched individuals, as well as reproductive performance for a total of 575 pairs. We aimed to assess survival, reproductive success, population size, number of mature individuals and population projection. In the first year after release, the estimated apparent annual survival rate was 0.566 [Bayesian credible intervals (CRI) 0.518–0.614]; however, this rate increased after 1 year (0.865; CRI 0.836–0.892). Wild‐hatched juveniles exhibited a high survival rate (0.757; CRI 0.670–0.838) that was just lower than that of adults (0.899; CRI 0.844–0.949). The reproductive success rate varied with pair attributes (released–released pair: 0.245, CRI 0.194–0.299; released–wild pair: 0.377, CRI 0.281–0.471; wild–wild pair: 0.350, CRI 0.237–0.471). Total population size was estimated to be 457 individuals (CRI 384–525), with 261 mature individuals (CRI 211–304) in June 2021. The probability of Crested Ibis extinction in the next five generations was 0%, even if the release was discontinued. Our comprehensive case study demonstrated the effectiveness of IPM‐PVA for the evaluation of ongoing reintroduction programmes.

Key questions in marine mammal bioenergetics.

Bioenergetic approaches are increasingly used to understand how marine mammal populations could be affected by a changing and disturbed aquatic environment. There remain considerable gaps in our knowledge of marine mammal bioenergetics, which hinder the application of bioenergetic studies to inform policy decisions. We conducted a priority-setting exercise to identify high-priority unanswered questions in marine mammal bioenergetics, with an emphasis on questions relevant to conservation and management. Electronic communication and a virtual workshop were used to solicit and collate potential research questions from the marine mammal bioenergetic community. From a final list of 39 questions, 11 were identified as 'key' questions because they received votes from at least 50% of survey participants. Key questions included those related to energy intake (prey landscapes, exposure to human activities) and expenditure (field metabolic rate, exposure to human activities, lactation, time-activity budgets), energy allocation priorities, metrics of body condition and relationships with survival and reproductive success and extrapolation of data from one species to another. Existing tools to address key questions include labelled water, animal-borne sensors, mark-resight data from long-term research programs, environmental DNA and unmanned vehicles. Further validation of existing approaches and development of new methodologies are needed to comprehensively address some key questions, particularly for cetaceans. The identification of these key questions can provide a guiding framework to set research priorities, which ultimately may yield more accurate information to inform policies and better conserve marine mammal populations.

Integrating counts, telemetry, and non‐invasive DNA data to improve demographic monitoring of an endangered species

AbstractPopulation monitoring can take many different forms, and monitoring elusive and endangered species frequently involves a variety of sparse data from different sources. Small populations are often hard to sample precisely and without bias, so when estimates of vital rates like survival or recruitment point to conflicting population trends, it can be hard to determine which is more correct. Furthermore, data can be extremely hard to collect on small populations and it can be helpful to find a way to use all available hard‐won data. To address these issues, we developed an integrated population model (IPM) using all available data to estimate vital rates and abundance for a case study of an endangered woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) population. This IPM allowed us to incorporate data from juvenile recruitment surveys, telemetry‐based survival, aerial population counts and mark–resight data, and non‐invasive capture–recapture DNA data to better understand population status and trend. We estimated survival, abundance, and recruitment of four age classes of male and female caribou: young, juveniles, subadults, and adults. The four‐age class structure of the IPM allowed us to estimate recruitment from reproductive‐aged female caribou alone, even though it can be difficult to distinguish age classes—and even sexes—in the field. As part of our IPM, we developed a novel mixture model to break apart data from different age classes when age is unobservable, as it typically is from non‐invasive DNA samples. This helped us decrease bias in juvenile and adult survival estimates from scat data, which was important to our understanding of the population dynamics. Overall, our integrated model provided more precise estimates of population trends than any one method (e.g., telemetry or non‐invasive DNA) alone. This IPM provides a useful, flexible tool for biologists to monitor populations and provides a valuable example of the benefits of integrated population modeling approaches for endangered species management and recovery.

Integrating tracking and resight data enables unbiased inferences about migratory connectivity and winter range survival from archival tags

Abstract Archival geolocators have transformed the study of small, migratory organisms but analysis of data from these devices requires bias correction because tags are only recovered from individuals that survive and are re-captured at their tagging location. We show that integrating geolocator recovery data and mark–resight data enables unbiased estimates of both migratory connectivity between breeding and nonbreeding populations and region-specific survival probabilities for wintering locations. Using simulations, we first demonstrate that an integrated Bayesian model returns unbiased estimates of transition probabilities between seasonal ranges. We also used simulations to determine how different sampling designs influence the estimability of transition probabilities. We then parameterized the model with tracking data and mark–resight data from declining Painted Bunting (Passerina ciris) populations breeding in the eastern United States, hypothesized to be threatened by the illegal pet trade in parts of their Caribbean, nonbreeding range. Consistent with this hypothesis, we found that male buntings wintering in Cuba were 20% less likely to return to the breeding grounds than birds wintering elsewhere in their range. Improving inferences from archival tags through proper data collection and further development of integrated models will advance our understanding of the full annual cycle ecology of migratory species.

Estimating brown bear abundance and harvest rate on the southern Alaska Peninsula.

Abundance estimation of hunted brown bear populations should occur on the same geographic scale as harvest data analyses for estimation of harvest rate. Estimated harvest rates are an important statistic for managing hunted bear populations. In Alaska, harvest data is collected over large geographic units, called Game Management Units (GMUs) and sub-GMUs. These sub GMUs often exceed 10,000 km2. In the spring of 2002, we conducted an aerial survey of GMU 9D (12,600 km2) and GMU 10 (4,070 km2) using distance sampling with mark-resight data. We used a mark-resight distance sampling method with a two-piece normal detection function to estimate brown bear abundance as 1,682.9 (SE = 174.29) and 316.9 (SE = 48.25) for GMU 9D and GMU 10, respectively. We used reported hunter harvest to estimate harvest rates of 4.35% (SE = 0.45%) and 3.06% (SE = 0.47%) for GMU 9D and GMU 10, respectively. Management objective for these units support sustained, high quality hunting opportunity which harvest data indicate are met with an annual harvest rate of approximately 5–6% or less.

Survival and Habitat of Yellow‐Phase American Eels in North Carolina Tidal Creeks

AbstractWe estimated rates of survival as well as effects of habitat on catch rates of juvenile yellow‐phase American Eels Anguilla rostrata in southeastern U.S. tidal creeks. We trapped and marked eels with PIT tags at 24 fixed sites in eight North Carolina tidal creeks and then recaptured and resighted the tagged individuals to estimate apparent survival. Separate Cormack–Jolly–Seber (CJS) models were fitted to mark–recapture data (eight creeks) versus mark–resight data (four creeks) to estimate apparent survival. Median annual apparent survival (Φ) was higher when the CJS model was fitted to mark–resight data (Φ = 0.15) than to mark–recapture data (Φ = 0.013). Negative binomially distributed models were fitted to catch rates of both tagged and untagged eels to test for habitat, development, and seasonal effects. The presence/absence of culverts and season were meaningful covariates of catch rates; greater catches were found at sites possessing culverts and during the spring. Other habitat and development factors at the site, creek, and watershed levels were not important covariates of catch rates. Partitioning the sources of loss of yellow‐phase American Eels from these systems into mortality versus emigration would be useful future research in the southeastern U.S. coastal region. Further study into how culverts affect yellow‐phase American Eel habitation and movement in southeastern U.S. estuaries is also warranted.

Radio Transmitters did not Affect Apparent Survival Rates of Adult Piping Plovers (Charadrius melodus)

Assessments of possible adverse effects of transmitters on marked individuals is an important component of individual-based tracking studies, particularly for species that are listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. The breeding and post-breeding movements of adult Piping Plovers (Charadrius melodus) from the federally-threatened Atlantic Coast Population were studied by gluing miniature, 1.0-g, digital VHF radio-transmitters on their interscapular region. Mark-resighting data from 2015-2018 was used to estimate apparent survival rates for 289 adult Piping Plovers in Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and New Jersey in order to compare survival estimates between individuals with a transmitter attached and control individuals without a transmitter. Cormack–Jolly–Seber models were used for live-encounter data in a Bayesian framework to estimate apparent survival rates based on resightings of uniquely marked individuals. There was no evidence that mean apparent survival rates differed between adults with transmitters (0.756; 95% CI = 0.611 – 0.877) and without transmitters (0.673; 95% CI = 0.607 – 0.740). In addition, there was no evidence of differences in apparent survival rates between breeding location (state) or years. This study provides further evidence that radio transmitters glued temporarily to the inter-scapular region can be an effective tool to monitor local and regional movements of sensitive shorebirds, such as Piping Plovers.

Survival and Density of a Dominant Fish Species Across a Gradient of Urbanization in North Carolina Tidal Creeks

Development in the southeastern US coastal plain generates the need for a better understanding of how survival and abundance of estuarine nekton respond to urbanization. Apparent survival and density of the dominant Atlantic coast salt marsh fish, the mummichog Fundulus heteroclitus, were estimated in four North Carolina tidal creeks using a model simultaneously fitted to mark-resight and mark-recapture data. Rates of weekly loss (mortality plus emigration) were high (~ 10%). Sampling for tagged fish within and outside of study creeks showed high site fidelity to each creek, indicating that loss largely resulted from mortality rather than emigration. Estimated rates of apparent survival were lowest in the creek with the least instream- and watershed-level impacts. This creek has direct (non-culvert) access downstream to a larger waterbody, suggesting that enhanced access by predators and/or greater rates of permanent emigration may have contributed to lower apparent survival in this creek. There was a positive relation between minnow trap catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) and density allowing the relationship between CPUE and habitat and urbanization to be examined in a total of six creeks. The largest CPUE estimates occurred early in each growing season and were associated with creeks possessing characteristics most representative of undisturbed salt marsh mosaics: high percentage of marsh coverage instream and downstream and high percentage of marsh edge. Given generally limited movement outside of creeks, differences in abundance among creeks likely result from different levels of recruitment that are related to salt marsh availability. Priority preservation of salt marsh habitats may be warranted by natural resource planners to maintain abundance levels of this trophically important species.

Improved methods for estimating abundance and related demographic parameters from mark-resight data.

Over the past decade, there has been much methodological development for the estimation of abundance and related demographic parameters using mark‐resight data. Often viewed as a less‐invasive and less‐expensive alternative to conventional mark recapture, mark‐resight methods jointly model marked individual encounters and counts of unmarked individuals, and recent extensions accommodate common challenges associated with imperfect detection. When these challenges include both individual detection heterogeneity and an unknown marked sample size, we demonstrate several deficiencies associated with the most widely used mark‐resight models currently implemented in the popular capture‐recapture freeware Program MARK. We propose a composite likelihood solution based on a zero‐inflated Poisson log‐normal model and find the performance of this new estimator to be superior in terms of bias and confidence interval coverage. Under Pollock's robust design, we also extend the models to accommodate individual‐level random effects across sampling occasions as a potentially more realistic alternative to models that assume independence. As a motivating example, we revisit a previous analysis of mark‐resight data for the New Zealand Robin (Petroica australis) and compare inferences from the proposed estimators. For the all‐too‐common situation where encounter rates are low, individual detection heterogeneity is non‐negligible, and the number of marked individuals is unknown, we recommend practitioners use the zero‐inflated Poisson log‐normal mark‐resight estimator as now implemented in Program MARK.

Migratory connectivity and local site fidelity in red knots on the southern Pacific coast of South America

Abstract The red knot Calidris canutus, a flagship migratory waterbird species, continues to decline within the Americas. One major unanswered question is the status and connectivity of birds spending the non‐breeding season on the southern Pacific coast of South America. Answering this question will provide a useful geographic endpoint that could enhance ongoing conservation efforts. Red knots on Chiloé Island (43°S, Chile) were studied during four consecutive non‐breeding seasons (2014–2018) using systematic counts and resightings of ringed individuals in two shallow bays with known aggregations of other shorebird species. Maximum seasonal abundances (±SD) at each bay (68.8 ± 13.4; 85.0 ± 13.2) were similar across years. However, actual abundance on Chiloé is probably higher, as other suitable habitats were not surveyed. A total of 55 resightings corresponding to 14 individuals were recorded. The majority (72%) was for birds present during consecutive seasons; there were no recorded interchanges between bays. All birds, but one in Argentina, were ringed on the Atlantic coast of the USA (mainly the Gulf of Mexico) during their spring (northward) migration. Mark–resight data reveal a strong migratory connectivity between the southern Pacific coast of South America and the Atlantic coast of North America for this small but regular population of a highly imperilled species. Data also suggest that the red knots on Chiloé might be considered a separate conservation unit (most likely subspecies rufa). Thus, there is an urgent need to conduct comprehensive studies on Chiloé Island for the conservation of the intraspecific diversity of this migratory flagship species.

The influence of chick production on territory retention in Arctic-breeding Pacific and Yellow-billed loons

Abstract Adult birds may use the production of offspring as a measure of habitat quality when prospecting for territories, increasing competition for productive territories. We evaluated the impact of breeding success on territory retention of Pacific (Gavia pacifica) and Yellow-billed (G. adamsii) loons in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska on the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska using mark–resight data and multi-state modeling. We also used behavioral observations of brood-rearing adult loons to quantify the frequency of visits by prospecting loons. We hypothesized that increased competition for productive territories would result in a decrease in territory retention rates. Territory retention rates the year following successful breeding attempts were only slightly lower (0.90) than after failed breeding attempts (0.93), and few territories were consistently successful across years. Overall territory retention rates were high (0.92) and similar for both species, suggesting that adults were able to defend their territories successfully. Males had higher territory retention rates than females, but we found no influence of mass (a possible proxy for fighting ability) on territory retention. These observations, coupled with the high frequency of visits by prospecting loons, provide additional evidence that site familiarity may provide advantages to territory holders. Quantifying territory retention behaviors may also inform land management decisions for oil and gas development in areas where loons are present. High territory retention rates, frequency of visits by prospectors, and limited habitat where new territories can be established suggest that breeding habitat in northern Alaska is saturated and may be limiting Yellow-billed Loon populations. In contrast, Pacific Loons attempting to acquire a territory may be able to form new territories on smaller, unoccupied lakes.

Isolating the roles of movement and reproduction on effective connectivity alters conservation priorities for an endangered bird

Movement is important for ecological and evolutionary theory as well as connectivity conservation, which is increasingly critical for species responding to environmental change. Key ecological and evolutionary outcomes of movement, such as population growth and gene flow, require effective dispersal: movement that is followed by successful reproduction. However, the relative roles of movement and postmovement reproduction for effective dispersal and connectivity remain unclear. Here we isolate the contributions of movement and immigrant reproduction to effective dispersal and connectivity across the entire breeding range of an endangered raptor, the snail kite (Rostrhamus sociabilis plumbeus). To do so, we unite mark-resight data on movement and reproduction across 9 years and 27 breeding patches with an integrated model that decomposes effective dispersal into its hierarchical levels of movement, postmovement breeding attempt, and postmovement reproductive success. We found that immigrant reproduction limits effective dispersal more than movement for this endangered species, demonstrating that even highly mobile species may have limited effective connectivity due to reduced immigrant reproduction. We found different environmental limitations for the reproductive component of effective dispersal compared with movement, indicating that different conservation strategies may be needed when promoting effective dispersal rather than movement alone. We also demonstrate that considering immigrant reproduction, rather than movement alone, alters which patches are the most essential for connectivity, thereby changing conservation priorities. These results challenge the assumption that understanding movement alone is sufficient to infer connectivity and highlight that connectivity conservation may require not only fostering movement but also successful reproduction of immigrants.

Evaluating population viability and efficacy of conservation management using integrated population models

AbstractPredicting population responses to environmental conditions or management scenarios is a fundamental challenge for conservation. Proper consideration of demographic, environmental and parameter uncertainties is essential for projecting population trends and optimal conservation strategies.We developed a coupled integrated population model‐Bayesian population viability analysis to assess the (1) impact of demographic rates (survival, fecundity, immigration) on past population dynamics; (2) population viability 10 years into the future; and (3) efficacy of possible management strategies for the federally endangered Great Lakes piping ploverCharadrius meloduspopulation.Our model synthesizes long‐term population survey, nest monitoring and mark–resight data, while accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty. We incorporated latent abundance of eastern North American merlinsFalco columbarius, a primary predator of adult plovers, as a covariate on adult survival via a parallel state‐space model, accounting for the influence of an imperfectly observed process (i.e. predation pressure) on population viability.Mean plover abundance increased from 18 pairs in 1993 to 75 pairs in 2016, but annual population growth () was projected to be 0.95 (95% CI 0.72–1.12), suggesting a potential decline to 67 pairs within 10 years. Without accounting for an expanding merlin population, we would have concluded that the plover population was projected to increase ( = 1.02; 95% CI 0.94–1.09) to 91 pairs by 2026. We compared four conservation scenarios: (1) no proposed management; (2) increased control of chick predators (e.g.Corvidae, Laridae, mammals); (3) increased merlin control; and (4) simultaneous chick predator and merlin control. Compared to the null scenario, chick predator control reduced quasi‐extinction probability from 11.9% to 8.7%, merlin control more than halved (3.5%) the probability and simultaneous control reduced quasi‐extinction probability to 2.6%.Synthesis and applications. Piping plover recovery actions should consider systematic predator control, rather than current ad hoc protocols, especially given the predicted increase in regional merlin abundance. This approach of combining integrated population models with Bayesian population viability analysis to identify limiting components of the population cycle and evaluate alternative management strategies for conservation decision‐making shows great utility for aiding recovery of threatened populations.

Interisland genetic structure of two endangered Hawaiian waterbirds: The Hawaiian Coot and Hawaiian Gallinule

ABSTRACT Most of Hawaii's endemic avifauna are species of conservation concern. Some of Hawaii's endangered waterbirds, however, have increased in number as a result of intensive management of wetlands. To inform these conservation efforts, we examined interisland genetic structure and gene flow within 2 Hawaiian endemic waterbirds, the Hawaiian Coot (Fulica alai) and the Hawaiian subspecies of the Common Gallinule (Gallinula galeata sandvicensis), using microsatellite and mitochondrial loci. Hawaiian Coots and Hawaiian Gallinules occupy coastal wetlands and exhibit similar life history characteristics and generation times, although they may differ in dispersal propensity. Mark–resight data for Hawaiian Coot indicate interisland movements, whereas Hawaiian Gallinules are sedentary. Genetic diversity is partitioned across the landscape differently for Hawaiian Coots and Hawaiian Gallinules; patterns of variation are likely influenced by behavioral and ecological mechanisms. Hawaiian Coots exhibit low level...

Cold weather increases winter site fidelity in a group-living passerine

Site fidelity during the non-breeding season is beneficial if habitat quality and environmental predictability are high. In group-living species, the costs and benefits of site fidelity may be linked to the non-social (weather) and social (dominance hierarchy) environments, but little is known about factors influencing movements during the non-breeding season. We studied both within- and between-winter site fidelity of the great tit (Parus major), a partial migrant in northern Finland. We collected mark-resight data on wintering great tits across two winters at multiple sites, and tested for the effects of age, sex, season, temperature and day length on site fidelity. Within-winter movement was lower during mid-winter and decreased during cold periods. This pattern is probably linked to energy saving and predator escaping strategies during these demanding periods when energy expenditure is high and birds have limited daylight hours to forage. Site fidelity was lower for juveniles than adults within a winter, but it was unaffected by sex. These results agree with an age related dominance structure and site-specific dominance found in great tits, but they can also be related to prior experience as young individuals still collect information during their first winter. In contrast, between-winter site fidelity was not affected by age or sex, suggesting equal benefits from site fidelity. Juveniles probably gather information on resource abundance and distribution in their first winter, and thereby gain the same benefits as adults from returning the next winter.