Mark-recapture Models Research Articles

Platypus fyke-netting methods: a review of recommended field protocols and options for assessing population abundance

Fyke nets are the preferred type of equipment used for platypus (Ornithorhynchus anatinus) live-trapping surveys in shallow watercourses. However, numerous factors other than abundance may affect the frequency of platypus captures, including when, where and how nets are set, stream discharge and entry into nets by rakali (Hydromys chrysogaster), which create exit holes that are then also available to a platypus. A threefold difference in the mean monthly frequency of platypus captures in fyke nets is also evident across the year. To limit net evasion, it makes sense to reduce net visibility and minimise opportunities for animals to squeeze under, climb over or walk around nets. Time-lapse cameras can also be deployed at fyke-netting sites to estimate how many individuals evade capture. To protect platypus welfare and the welfare of non-target species held in fyke nets, it is important to ensure that captured animals have access to air, to check nets frequently throughout the time they are set and to release bycatch when first encountered. Fyke-netting studies typically generate sparse platypus population data, so care is needed when selecting and interpreting platypus abundance metrics generated through mark–recapture modelling or use of indices.

Severe fire regimes decrease resilience of ectothermic populations.

Understanding populations' responses to environmental change is crucial for mitigating human-induced disturbances. Here, we test hypotheses regarding how three essential components of demographic resilience (resistance, compensation and recovery) co-vary along the distinct life histories of three lizard species exposed to variable, prescribed fire regimes. Using a Bayesian hierarchical framework, we estimate vital rates (survival, growth and reproduction) with 14 years of monthly individual-level data and mark-recapture models to parameterize stochastic integral projection models from five sites in Brazilian savannas, each historically subjected to different fire regimes. With these models, we investigate how weather, microclimate and ecophysiological traits of each species influence their vital rates, emergent life history traits and demographic resilience components in varying fire regimes. Overall, weather and microclimate are better predictors of the species' vital rates, rather than their ecophysiological traits. Our findings reveal that severe fire regimes increase populations' resistance but decrease compensation or recovery abilities. Instead, populations have higher compensatory and recovery abilities at intermediate degrees of fire severity. Additionally, we identify generation time and reproductive output as predictors of resilience trends across fire regimes and climate. Our analyses demonstrate that the probability and quantity of monthly reproduction are the proximal drivers of demographic resilience across the three species. Our findings suggest that populations surpass a tipping point in severe fire regimes and achieve an alternative stable state to persist. Thus, higher heterogeneity in fire regimes can increase the reproductive aspects and resilience of different populations and avoid high-severity regimes that homogenize the environment. Despite being more resistant, species with long generation times and low reproductive output take longer to recover and cannot compensate as much as species with faster paces of life. We emphasize how reproductive constraints, such as viviparity and fixed clutch sizes, impact the ability of ectothermic populations to benefit and recover from disturbances, underscoring their relevance in conservation assessments.

An ice‐obligate seabird responds to a multi‐decadal decline in Arctic sea ice

AbstractThe Arctic has experienced greatly decreased sea ice and increased ocean temperatures in recent decades but there is a paucity of biological time‐series data allowing assessment of resulting temporal variation in the region's marine ecosystems. Seabirds, as highly mobile and highly visible, upper trophic‐level predators, can be valuable monitors of modifications in marine ecosystems, especially for regions lacking commercial fisheries or regular oceanographic sampling. Since 1975, we have studied annually an Arctic Alaskan colony of Mandt's black guillemot (Cepphus grylle mandtii), an ice‐obligate diving seabird, specializing on Arctic cod (Boreogadus saida), the primary forage fish of the ice‐associated cryopelagic ecosystem. Using multi‐state capture–mark–recapture models, matrix population models, and perturbation analysis, we quantified the environmental and demographic drivers of population change from 1980 to 2019 for the individually marked population. The colony increased rapidly, from <20 to >200 breeding pairs from 1975 to 1990 in response to increased availability of nesting cavities, before experiencing intermittent declines to <50 pairs in 2021. Immigration and apparent survival were the primary demographic parameters affecting population growth with sea ice extent in late summer and fall the primary environmental driver. The initial growth occurred during a period of primarily negative winter Arctic Oscillations (WAO) and extensive summer sea ice. The decline began when an extremely positive WAO in 1989/1990 initiated changes in atmospheric and oceanographic circulation causing major reductions in summer sea ice throughout the region. The three‐decade decline in the population saw plateaus or minor growth with increasing frequency of negative WAOs and increasing declines following two previously identified “tipping points” in sea ice loss. Breeding success at the study colony declined with decreased availability of Arctic cod due to sea ice loss and increasing sea surface temperature and is presumed to have occurred at the source colonies for immigrants where similar oceanographic changes were occurring. Quasi‐extinction of the colony (reduction to <25 pairs) is predicted within the next two decades. The sensitivity of Mandt's black guillemot to multi‐decadal changes in the Arctic's cryopelagic ecosystem makes it an excellent sentinel species for the region with its recent collapse having dire implications for the Arctic Ocean's constituent species.

Predator presence influences survival and behavior of translocated stream fish in ponds

Abstract Small artificial impoundments such as farm ponds have recently been recognized as potential habitat for threatened native fish species. However, factors influencing translocation or colonization success into these environments, including connectivity to stream networks and interactions with existing fish community, are largely unknown. In this study we conducted a controlled experiment to quantify the influence of piscivorous Largemouth Bass Micropterus salmoides on the survival of a translocated native minnow species that we used as a surrogate for federally endangered Topeka Shiner Notropis topeka. We translocated or released 100 Bluntnose Minnow Pimephales notatus into each replicate treatment ponds with and without Largemouth Bass in the summers of 2020 and 2021. Each minnow was implanted with a passive integrated transponder (PIT) tag. Translocated populations were monitored using stationary and mobile passive integrated transponder antennas and estimates of apparent survival and probability of detection for each pond were derived from open population mark-recapture models. Apparent survival was nearly two times higher in ponds without bass suggesting predation by bass leads to higher mortality. Additionally, probability of detection was nearly 10 times higher in ponds without bass, suggesting reduced movement of translocated minnows when bass were present. While the direct effect of mortality impacts translocated populations, the indirect effect of altered behavior may also be impactful on translocation success. These results confirm that Largemouth Bass can limit the success of translocated minnow species.

Long‐term trends in abundance and recruitment of Shortnose Sturgeon in the Altamaha River, Georgia

AbstractObjectiveThe objective of this study was to estimate the population size and annual recruitment of Shortnose Sturgeon Accipenser brevirostrum in the Altamaha River estuary in Georgia, United States, during an 11‐year period. The Shortnose Sturgeon is an endangered fish species that occupies rivers on the east coast of North America. Previous studies have suggested that the Altamaha River supports the largest population of Shortnose Sturgeon in the southern United States; however, the status of the population has not been assessed in 11 years.MethodsWe used entanglement gears to capture Shortnose Sturgeon in the Altamaha River estuary, marked them, and used an established statistical method (closed‐population capture–mark–recapture models) to annually estimate total population size and age‐1 recruitment from 2012 to 2022.ResultWe were able to estimate the size of age‐1 cohorts in 7 of the 11 years of data collection. Point estimates of annual age‐1 recruitment varied between 113 and 1021 individuals, and total population size varied between 452 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 116–2277) and 5054 individuals (95% CI: 2155–13,267).ConclusionRecruitment of age‐1 juveniles was variable, suggesting that reproduction success is inconsistent between years in the Altamaha River. The results of this study, in combination with previous work, do not show any clear trends in Altamaha River Shortnose Sturgeon population abundance or recruitment. The population seems to be stable, but in the absence of historical population numbers, it is unclear whether the population should be considered recovered or is stagnated in its recovery.

Translocation in a fragmented river provides demographic benefits for imperiled fishes

AbstractFragmentation isolates individuals and restricts access to valuable habitat with severe consequences for populations, such as reduced gene flow, disruption of recolonization dynamics, reduced resiliency to disturbance, and changes in aquatic community structure. Translocations to mitigate the effects of fragmentation and habitat loss are common, but few are rigorously evaluated, particularly for fishes. Over six years, we translocated 1215 individuals of four species of imperiled fish isolated below a barrier on the San Juan River, Utah, USA, that restricts access to upstream habitat. We used re‐encounter data (both passive integrated transponder tag and telemetry detections and physical recaptures) collected between 2016 and 2023, to inform a spatially explicit multistate mark–recapture model that estimated survival and transition probabilities of translocated and non‐translocated individuals, both below and above the barrier. Individuals of all four species moved large (>200 km) distances upstream following translocation, with the maximum upstream encounter distance varying by species. Results from the multistate mark–recapture model suggested translocated fish survived at a higher rate compared with non‐translocated fish below the barrier for three of the four species. Above the barrier, translocated individuals survived at similar rates as non‐translocated fish for bluehead sucker (Catostomus discobolus) and flannelmouth sucker (Catostomus latipinnis), while survival rates of translocated endangered Colorado pikeminnow (Ptychocheilus lucius; mean, 95% CI: 0.75, 0.55–0.88) and endangered razorback sucker (Xyrauchen texanus; 0.86, 0.75–0.92) were higher relative to non‐translocated individuals (Colorado pikeminnow: 0.52, 0.51–0.54; razorback sucker: 0.75, 0.74–0.75). Transition probabilities from above the barrier to below the barrier were generally low for three of the four species (all upper 95% CI ≤ 0.23), but they were substantially higher for razorback sucker. Our results suggest translocation to mitigate fragmentation and habitat loss can have demographic benefits for large‐river fish species by allowing movements necessary to complete their life history in heterogeneous riverscapes. Further, given the costs or delays in providing engineered fish passage structures or in achieving dam removal, we suggest translocations may provide an alternative conservation strategy in fragmented river systems.

Synchrony in adult survival is remarkably strong among common temperate songbirds across France.

Synchronous variation in demographic parameters across species increases the risk of simultaneous local extinction, which lowers the probability of subsequent recolonization. Synchrony therefore tends to destabilize meta-populations and meta-communities. Quantifying interspecific synchrony in demographic parameters, like abundance, survival, or reproduction, is thus a way to indirectly assess the stability of meta-populations and meta-communities. Moreover, it is particularly informative to identify environmental drivers of interspecific synchrony because those drivers are important across species. Using a Bayesian hierarchical multisite multispecies mark-recapture model, we investigated temporal interspecific synchrony in annual adult apparent survival for 16 common songbird species across France for the period 2001-2016. Annual adult survival was largely synchronous among species (73%, 95% credible interval [47%-94%] of the variation among years was common to all species), despite species differing in ecological niche and life history. This result was robust to different model formulations, uneven species sample sizes, and removing the long-term trend in survival. Synchrony was also shared across migratory strategies, which suggests that environmental forcing during the 4-month temperate breeding season has a large-scale, interspecific impact on songbird survival. However, the strong interspecific synchrony was not easily explained by a set of candidate weather variables we defined a priori. Spring weather variables explained only 1.4% [0.01%-5.5%] of synchrony, while the contribution of large-scale winter weather indices may have been stronger but uncertain, accounting for 12% [0.3%-37%] of synchrony. Future research could jointly model interspecific variation and covariation in breeding success, age-dependent survival, and age-dependent dispersal to understand when interspecific synchrony in abundance emerges and destabilizes meta-communities.

Use of agricultural fields by Natterjack toads: Implications for pesticide exposure

Land sharing conservation strategies might not work if wildlife is exposed to plant protection products. Plant protection products are used to protect crops against harmful organisms yet they can also have unwanted side effects on non-target organisms. Amphibians are one group of non-target organisms for which there is evidence that plant protection products can have negative effects on individuals and populations. Despite much research on amphibian ecotoxicology, not much is known about the exposure of amphibians to plant protection products in agricultural landscapes. Here, we study habitat use and movement behaviour of an endangered amphibian, the Natterjack toad Epidalea calamita, in two study areas in Switzerland. We placed arrays of artificial cover boards in agricultural fields and adjacent non-agricultural habitats and used a photographic mark-recapture approach to track individual toads, both adults and juveniles, during and after the reproductive season in the terrestrial habitat. We used multistate and spatial mark-recapture models to analyse the data. Toads used the agricultural fields during spring and summer and set up their home ranges within the fields but there was a great turnover of individuals. Toad densities were higher in agricultural fields than other habitat types, including a nature reserve suitable for the species. Toads preferred open soils and avoided grassy meadows typical of agricultural set-asides, suggesting that the conservation of the species in agricultural landscapes requires new types of biodiversity promotion areas. The results of the study show that toads use agricultural fields during most of the growing season and are thus likely to be exposed to plant protection products.

Three decades of nearshore surveys reveal long-term patterns in gray whale habitat use, distribution, and abundance in the Northern California Current

The nearshore waters of the Northern California Current support an important seasonal foraging ground for Pacific Coast Feeding Group (PCFG) gray whales. We examine gray whale distribution, habitat use, and abundance over 31 years (1992–2022) using standardized nearshore (< 5 km from shore) surveys spanning a large swath of the PCFG foraging range. Specifically, we generated density surface models, which incorporate detection probability into generalized additive models to assess environmental correlates of gray whale distribution and predict abundance over time. We illustrate the importance of coastal upwelling dynamics, whereby increased upwelling only yields higher gray whale density if interspersed with relaxation events, likely because this combination optimizes influx and retention of nutrients to support recruitment and aggregation of gray whale prey. Several habitat features influence gray whale distribution, including substrate, shelf width, prominent capes, and river estuaries. However, the influence of these features differs between regions, revealing heterogeneity in habitat preferences throughout the PCFG foraging range. Predicted gray whale abundance fluctuated throughout our study period, but without clear directional trends, unlike previous abundance estimates based on mark-recapture models. This study highlights the value of long-term monitoring, shedding light on the impacts of variable environmental conditions on an iconic nearshore marine predator.

Estimating migration timing and abundance in partial migratory systems by integrating continuous antenna detections with physical captures.

Many populations migrate between two different habitats (e.g. wintering/foraging to breeding area, mainstem-tributary, river-lake, river-ocean, river-side channel) as part of their life history. Detection technologies, such as passive integrated transponder (PIT) antennas or sonic receivers, can be placed at boundaries between habitats (e.g. near the confluence of rivers) to detect migratory movements of marked animals. Often, these detection systems have high detection probabilities and detect many individuals but are limited in their ability to make inferences about abundance because only marked individuals can be detected. Here, we introduce a mark-recapture modelling approach that uses detections from a double-array PIT antenna system to imply movement directionality from arrays and estimate migration timing. Additionally, when combined with physical captures, the model can be used to estimate abundances for both migratory and non-migratory groups and help quantify partial migration. We first test our approach using simulation, and results indicate our approach displayed negligible bias for total abundance (less than ±1%) and slight biases for state-specific abundance estimates (±1%-6%). We fit our model to array detections and physical captures of three native fishes (humpback chub [Gila cypha], flannelmouth sucker [Catostomus latipinnis] and bluehead sucker [Catostomus discobolus]) in the Little Colorado River (LCR) in Grand Canyon, AZ, a system that exhibits partial migration (i.e. includes residents and migrants). Abundance estimates from our model confirm that, for all three species, migratory individuals are much more numerous than residents. There was little difference in movement timing between 2021 (a year without preceding winter/spring floods) and 2022 (a year with a small flood occurring in early April). In both years, flannelmouth sucker arrived in mid-March whereas humpback chub and bluehead sucker arrivals occurred early- to mid-April. With humpback chub and flannelmouth sucker, movement timing was influenced by body size so that large individuals were more likely to arrive early compared to smaller individuals. With more years of data, this model framework could be used to evaluate ecological questions pertaining to flow cues and movement timing or intensity, relative trends in migrants versus residents and ecological drivers of skipped spawning.

Time of year and weather influence departure decisions of sandhill cranes at a primary stopover

The Rocky Mountain Population (RMP) of greater sandhill cranes uses a key stopover area, the San Luis Valley (SLV) in Colorado. Parameters of migration phenology can differ between autumn and spring and are affected by weather and environmental factors. We hypothesized that sandhill cranes in the SLV would have a longer stopover duration in autumn than in spring, and that wind assistance, crosswinds, temperature change, barometric air pressure, and surface water area would influence persistence probability. We used data from sandhill cranes fitted with transmitters that spanned autumn and spring, 2015-2022. We used an open robust design mark-recapture model to estimate stopover duration, arrival probability, and persistence probability. We examined the effects of weather and surface water on the persistence probability for 106 sandhill cranes in the SLV. Stopover duration was longer in autumn than in spring and had higher variability across years. Arrival probability to the SLV peaked on 13 October in autumn and 21 February in spring. Persistence probability declined around mid-December in autumn and mid-March in spring. We found that several weather covariates influenced persistence in both seasons. In autumn, sandhill cranes departed the SLV with higher tailwinds, lower crosswinds, and higher surface water availability. In spring, sandhill cranes departed the SLV with lower crosswinds and higher barometric air pressure at the surface and higher wind speeds at altitudes of about 3,000 m. The effect of wind speed was stronger later in the spring. Given the lower variability of arrival and persistence probability and shorter stopover duration in spring compared to autumn, we suspect that RMP sandhill cranes are using a time-minimization strategy during spring. However, given the use of supportive winds and weather conditions ideal for soaring, RMP sandhill cranes appear to be using strategies that save energy in both seasons. Our study identifies the optimal timing of water management and surveys for RMP sandhill cranes and confirms that weather influences their persistence. Understanding differences in migration patterns between seasons and the factors that influence persistence at stopover sites will also be important for anticipating phenological impacts from climate change and land use alterations.

Disentangling the influence of entanglement on recruitment in North Atlantic right whales.

North Atlantic right whales are Critically Endangered and declining, with entanglements in fishing gear a key contributor to their decline. Entanglement events can result in lethal and sub-lethal (i.e. increased energetic demands and reduced foraging ability) impacts, with the latter influencing critical life-history states, such as reproduction. Using a multi-event framework, we developed a Bayesian mark-recapture model to investigate the influence of entanglement severity on survival and recruitment for female right whales. We used information from 199 known-aged females sighted between 1977 and 2018, combined with known entanglements of varying severity that were classified as minor, moderate or severe. Severe entanglements resulted in an average decline in survival of 27% for experienced non-breeders, 9% for breeders and 26% for pre-breeding females compared with other entanglements and unentangled individuals. Surviving individuals with severe entanglements had low transitional probabilities to breeders, but surprisingly, individuals with minor entanglements had the lowest transitional probabilities, contrary to expectations underpinning current management actions. Management actions are needed to address the lethal and sub-lethal impacts of entanglements, regardless of severity classification.

Balancing risks and rewards of alternate strategies in the seaward extent, duration and timing of fjord use in contemporary anadromy of brown trout (Salmo trutta)

BackgroundAnadromy comprises a successful life-cycle adaptation for salmonids, with marine migration providing improved feeding opportunities and thus improved growth. These rewards are balanced against costs from increased energy expenditure and mortality risk. Anthropogenic-induced environmental changes that reduce benefits and/or increase costs of migration e.g., aquaculture and hydropower, may therefore result in adaptations disfavouring anadromy. We tagged brown trout (Salmo trutta) smolts (N = 175) and veteran migrants (N = 342), from five adjacent riverine populations located in Sognefjorden, the longest Norwegian fjord-system supporting anadromous brown trout populations (209 km). Over four years, 138 acoustic telemetry receivers were deployed to track migrations of tagged individuals from freshwater and throughout Sognefjorden. Detected movements were used to fit migration models and multi-state mark-recapture models of survival and movement for each life-stage. Seaward migration distance was modelled to examine the fitness consequences from alternate migration strategies, with these models used to simulate the extent of fjord-use by individuals and accompanying growth, fecundity and survival consequences. We compared these findings with mark-recapture data collected prior to aquaculture and hydropower development.ResultsThe telemetry data revealed that the outermost-fjord region was utilised by all populations albeit by few individuals. However, historical recaptures were located at a greater distance from the river mouth (87.7 ± 70.3 km), when compared to maximum migration distances of present-day counterparts (58.6 ± 54.9 km). River of origin influenced observed migratory behaviour and differential survival was estimated for each population and life-stage. The simulations based on telemetry-data models revealed a 30% and 23% difference in survival among populations for smolts and veteran migrants, respectively. At the individual-level, a long-distance migration strategy was rewarded with enhanced fecundity. However, the main contribution to population-level fecundity was overwhelmingly derived from middle-distance migrants, due to higher mortality rates and limited numbers of long-distant migrants.ConclusionsWe conclude that present-day anadromy is precarious, but potential risk varies considerably between life-stages and populations, even within a single fjord system. Our findings suggest that selection for extended migration is under pressure, we therefore stress the importance of monitoring and management actions to secure genetic variation pertinent to preserve fitness gains of anadromy.

First estimates of population size and home range of Caribbean reef and nurse sharks using photo-identification and BRUVS

The assessment of parameters population size and individual home range is important for effective conservation management of sharks. This study uses the novel application of photo identification (photo-ID) to BRUVS footage as a non-invasive alternative to tagging in order to generate individual capture histories. These were used in mark-recapture models to estimate effective population sizes and to determine home ranges. In the Cayman Islands a total of 499 shark sightings of six coastal shark species were recorded on BRUVS from 2015 - 2018, but re-sighting rates were only sufficient for the determination of population parameters for two species - Caribbean reef shark (Carcharhinus perezi) and nurse shark (Ginglymostoma cirratum). The calculated super-population sizes for Caribbean reef shark (180 ± 37 SE) and nurse shark (336 ± 61 SE) were greater than the estimates for each species based on a closed-population model (Caribbean reef shark: 128 ± 40 SE, nurse shark: 249 ± 48 SE), though both measures indicated that there were about twice as many nurse sharks (1.3 - 1.8 sharks/km2) as Caribbean reef sharks (0.7 – 1 shark/km2) within the study area. The demographic compositions included numerous immature individuals, indicating that breeding of both species takes place within the study area of 188 km2. Most recognizable individuals of both species showed linear home ranges of &amp;lt;20 km, but a few individuals were observed to have moved longer distances (Caribbean reef shark: 125.37 km, nurse shark: 156.07 km). The data indicate that the home ranges and long-distance movements of individual sharks observed within the islands’ marine protected areas (MPAs) often extend to areas beyond the MPA’s boundary, potentially exposing them to fishing activities. This study provides the first estimates of population size for Caribbean reef and nurse sharks in the Cayman Islands and the first estimate of a Caribbean reef shark population globally.

Estimating abundance of Eastern Canada-West Greenland bowhead whales using genetic mark-recapture analyses

The Eastern Canada-West Greenland (EC-WG) bowhead whale (Balaena mysticetus) population is widely distributed across the eastern Canadian Arctic and across Baffin Bay to the western coast of Greenland. Their vast distribution makes obtaining population estimates via aerial surveys difficult, as coverage over their entire range is not possible. Genetic mark recapture analyses address this issue, as biopsy samples can be collected at various locales across the EC-WG bowhead whale population’s distribution and microsatellites can be analyzed to identify unique individuals. EC-WG bowhead whales were subject to intense commercial whaling pressure between the early 1700 s and early 1900 s, after which a moratorium on commercial whaling was put in place in 1915. We used available genetic samples from EC-WG bowhead whales in mark recapture models to estimate population abundance from 2012 to 2021 to gain insight on population dynamics ∼100 years post commercial whaling. The preferred model, using a Jolly-Seber structure, estimated the total abundance as 5173 individuals (CI: 3436–7788). Since the cessation of commercial whaling, the population has been thought to be rebounding, which is reflected by gradually increasing abundance estimates, from the low hundreds in the 1970 s and 1980 s, to ∼6000 in the early 2000 s, but our present estimate suggests population abundance may be plateauing well below the pre-commercial whaling carrying capacity estimate. This population estimate for EC-WG bowhead whales is required to update the population dynamics for conservation efforts.

Quantifying behavior and collision risk of humpback whales surfacing near large ships: implications for detection and avoidance

Lethal collisions between ships and whales (‘ship strikes’) are a pressing management issue across the globe, and recent work highlights the need for better information to support collision risk avoidance by mariners. Using a ship-based observer stationed on the bow, we recorded the behavior of humpback whales Megaptera novaeangliae surfacing around large cruise ships transiting Glacier Bay National Park, Alaska, one of the largest marine protected areas in North America. We documented surfacing bouts (i.e. series of surfacings when whales breathe between deeper foraging dives) over 460 h of observation from 65 cruises. We detected few surfacings per bout (mean = 2.9) and observed a moderate within-bout submergence time (median = 20.1 s), showing that whales are unavailable for detection during the majority of their time near the surface. We then used these data to parameterize a modified mark-recapture model to estimate the probability of a whale surfacing before and after first detection by mariners. The estimated probability that a whale surfaced prior to detection was moderate (0.54; 95% credible interval [CRI]: 0.52-0.57), indicating that often, the first detected cue (e.g. a blow or a visible fluke) was not the first cue produced (i.e. available to be detected). The probability that a whale remained near the surface following detection was high (median = 0.87; 95% CRI: 0.85-0.88). This indicates that whales likely remain at risk of collision following detection, enabling mariners to evaluate ship-speed-specific avoidance maneuvers based on initial sighting distances to decrease collision risk.

Spatiotemporal variation in pup abundance and preweaning survival of harbour seals (Phoca vitulina) in the St. Lawrence Estuary, Canada

Marine mammal populations worldwide greatly benefitted from conservation measures put in place since the 1970s following overexploitation, and many pinniped populations have recovered. However, threats due to bycatch, interspecific interactions or climate change remain, and detailed knowledge on vital rates, population dynamics, and their responses to environmental changes is essential for efficient management and conservation of wild populations. In this study, we quantified pup abundance and survival of individually marked harbour seal ( Phoca vitulina Linnaeus, 1758) pups during the preweaning period at Bic Island and Métis sites in the St. Lawrence Estuary from 1998 to 2019. We used mark-recapture models to evaluate competing hypotheses regarding variation in daily preweaning survival rates and capture probability during the pups’ first 30 days of life. Pup abundance increased from 76 [95% CI: 59, 101] to 323 [95% CI: 233, 338] in the past two decades at Bic Island and from 66 [95% CI: 47, 91] to 285 [95% CI: 204, 318] at Métis. Preweaning survival was generally higher at Bic (0.73 [95% CI: 0.58, 0.82]) than at Métis (0.68 [95% CI: 0.52, 0.79]). We hypothesize that differences between habitats and human disturbance contribute to lower preweaning survival at Métis, but behavioural studies are needed to understand the impacts of disturbance on mother–pup interactions during the nursing period.

Estimating density of forest bats and their long-term trends in a climate refuge.

For many species, estimating density is challenging, but it is important for conservation planning and understanding the functional role of species. Bats play key ecological roles, yet little is known about their free-ranging density. We used a long-term banding study of four species caught in an extensively forested climate refuge and spatial capture-recapture models (SCR) to estimate density and its change over time. Between 1999 and 2020, there were 3671 captures of four bat species, which were all edge-space foragers. Recaptures represented 16% (n = 587) of all captures, of which 89 were between-trap-cluster movements. Closed spatial mark-recapture models estimated plausible densities that varied with elevation. Preferred elevations differed between species, with density averaging 0.63 ha-1 for Vespadelus darlingtoni (high elevation), 0.43 ha-1 for V. pumilus (low elevation), 0.19 ha-1 for Chalinolobus morio (high elevation), and 0.08 ha-1 for V. regulus (high elevation). Overall, densities were higher than most previous published estimates for bats. Forest disturbance history (past timber harvesting) had no detectable effect on density. Density also varied substantially across years, and although annual maximum temperature and rainfall were not supported in models, some time periods showed an apparent relationship between density and annual rainfall (+ve) and/or annual maximum temperature (-ve). The most notable change was an increase in the density of V. pumilus after 2013, which tracked an increase in annual temperature at the site, reflecting a warming climate. Bat densities in forests outside of climate refugia are likely to be more sensitive to climate change, but more studies are needed in different habitats and continents and outside climate refugia to place the densities we estimated into a broader context.

Large offspring have enhanced lifetime reproductive success: Long-term carry-over effects of weaning size in gray seals (Halichoerus grypus).

An individual's size in early stages of life may be an important source of individual variation in lifetime reproductive performance, as size effects on ontogenetic development can have cascading physiological and behavioral consequences throughout life. Here, we explored how size-at-young influences subsequent reproductive performance in gray seals (Halichoerus grypus) using repeated encounter and reproductive data on a marked sample of 363 females that were measured for length after weaning, at ~4 weeks of age, and eventually recruited to the Sable Island breeding colony. Two reproductive traits were considered: provisioning performance (mass of weaned offspring), modeled using linear mixed effects models; and reproductive frequency (rate at which a female returns to breed), modeled using mixed effects multistate mark-recapture models. Mothers with the longest weaning lengths produced pups 8 kg heavier and were 20% more likely to breed in a given year than mothers with the shortest lengths. Correlation in body lengths between weaning and adult life stages, however, is weak: Longer pups do not grow to be longer than average adults. Thus, covariation between weaning length and future reproductive performance appears to be a carry-over effect, where the size advantages afforded in early juvenile stages may allow enhanced long-term performance in adulthood.

Reduced survival of Steller sea lions in the Gulf of Alaska following marine heatwave

The North Pacific marine heatwave of 2014–2016 (PMH), one of the most geographically-extensive and severe marine heatwaves on record, resulted in widespread and persistent perturbation of the Gulf of Alaska and California Current ecosystems. Negative effects of the PMH on marine mammals have been observed, but are not yet well understood. The endangered Steller sea lion Eumetopias jubatus is an important top predator in the Gulf of Alaska that is also particularly vulnerable to sudden or severe ecosystem shifts. We examined survival of 4,178 known-aged Steller sea lions marked from 2000 to 2016 from Kodiak Island through Southeast Alaska, using mark-recapture models and 12,811 resightings collected from 2001 to 2021. Survival of adult females aged 3–15 was reduced -0.05 to -0.23 during the PMH in the areas east, but not west, of Cook Inlet. Survival of Kodiak females was unaffected by the PMH, but survival of Sugarloaf females aged 5–8 was reduced -0.13 from summer 2015 to summer 2016. Lowest survival in Southeast Alaska occurred from summer 2016 to summer 2017, but was also reduced from summer 2014 to summer 2016. Reduced survival continued post-PMH in Kenai Peninsula/Prince William Sound, but not in Southeast Alaska. Survival of adult males was insensitive to the PMH, except in Southeast Alaska where male survival was reduced -0.25 from summer 2016 to summer 2017. Prolonged or intermittent high adult female mortality may reduce population growth and initiate regional declines. Survival response of Steller sea lions to the PMH varied regionally despite similar patterns of ocean warming throughout our study area, suggesting areas east versus west of Cook Inlet were affected differently by the PMH, perhaps due to habitat and oceanographic differences.