Mark-recapture Dataset Research Articles

Extension of Pradel capture–recapture survival‐recruitment model accounting for transients

Abstract Population growth is the sum of survival and recruitment, and knowledge of these two vital rates is crucial for understanding population dynamics. Moreover, animal populations often contain varying number of transient (i.e. nonresident) individuals that do not contribute to these rates but may bias their estimates. The widely used Pradel (1996, Biometrics, 52: 703) survival‐recruitment model for capture–mark–recapture data is only able to handle resident individuals on a fixed study area across a particular study period. Yet, numerous capture–mark–recapture data sets, from a wide range of taxa, feature transient individuals. The most widespread sources of avian demographic data, based on citizen science projects, feature both transient individuals and changes in the study area over time. We present an extension of the Pradel model that accounts for the presence of transient individuals and changes in the study area. In contrast to known extensions of the Cormack–Jolly–Seber models in which transients are modelled as a proportion of newly captured individuals, our novel approach models transient individuals as a proportion of all birds captured. In addition, we present a new simple way to visualize the interlinkage of the vital rates produced by our extended Pradel model. We demonstrate utilization of the model using capture–mark–recapture data collected by a constant‐effort mist‐netting citizen science programme in the Czech Republic, presenting demographic rates of two species with different population dynamics. To demonstrate the newly achieved ability to analyse the phenomenon of transience, we show the differences in transience and its temporal trends between wet and dry habitats. Removing the limitations of the Pradel model opens up new potential for much wider range of applications. Furthermore, our novel parametrization of transients as a proportion of all birds captured facilitates biological interpretation of the transience parameter and the study of transience as a biological phenomenon. Calculating all demographic parameters in a single model also opens up a unique possibility to take into account their correlated error distributions in follow‐up analyses. Our model can be further extended in several ways and can serve as a basic building block in a wide range of demographic analyses.

Somatic Growth and Maturity for Four Species of River Cooter Including Pseudemys concinna suwanniensis, P. nelsoni, P. peninsularis, and P. texana.

Pseudemys is a genus of commonly occurring freshwater turtles with limited growth information across their long lifespans. We used 11,361 mark-recapture events to estimate the somatic growth rates of P. nelsoni, P. peninsularis, P. concinna suwanniensis, and P. texana from freshwater springs and developed a Bayesian growth model to estimate the species-specific, site-specific, and individual effects on growth. We corroborated evidence for fast juvenile growth and slower adult growth in Pseudemys but found uncommonly fast growth rates, with turtles doubling or tripling in size in the first year. P. texana males had the smallest average maximum size (L∞, 243 mm), while P. c. suwanniensis females had the largest (423 mm). Environmental conditions at springs had significant effects on k, the growth coefficient, but not L∞. We derived, using a ratio of length at maturity to L∞ (71.7% and 87%, males and females), that females matured 1.15-1.57 times older than males except for P. c. suwanniensis, which matured three times older. Given the local abundance declines in many Pseudemys from anthropogenic impacts, this study provides important baseline life history information for Pseudemys species for use in ongoing conservation efforts and presents a novel hierarchical modeling approach using a long-term mark-recapture dataset.

The role of environmental variation in mediating fitness trade-offs for an amphibian polyphenism.

Fitness trade-offs are a foundation of ecological and evolutionary theory because trade-offs can explain life history variation, phenotypic plasticity, and the existence of polyphenisms. Using a 32-year mark-recapture dataset on lifetime fitness for 1093 adult Arizona tiger salamanders (Ambystoma mavortium nebulosum) from a high elevation, polyphenic population, we evaluated the extent to which two life history morphs (aquatic paedomorphs vs. terrestrial metamorphs) exhibited fitness trade-offs in breeding and body condition with respect to environmental variation (e.g. climate) and internal state-based variables (e.g. age). Both morphs displayed a similar response to higher probabilities of breeding during years of high spring precipitation (i.e. not indicative of a morph-specific fitness trade-off). There were likely no climate-induced fitness trade-offs on breeding state for the two life history morphs because precipitation and water availability are vital to amphibian reproduction. Body condition displayed a contrasting response for the two morphs that was indicative of a climate-induced fitness trade-off. While metamorphs exhibited a positive relationship with summer snowpack conditions, paedomorphs were unaffected. Fitness trade-offs from summer snowpack are likely due to extended hydroperiods in temporary ponds, where metamorphs gain a fitness advantage during the summer growing season by exploiting resources that are unavailable to paeodomorphs. However, paedomorphs appear to have the overwintering fitness advantage because they consistently had higher body condition than metamorphs at the start of the summer growing season. Our results reveal that climate and habitat type (metamorphs as predominately terrestrial, paedomorphs as fully aquatic) interact to confer different advantages for each morph. These results advance our current understanding of fitness trade-offs in this well-studied polyphenic amphibian by integrating climate-based mechanisms. Our conclusions prompt future studies to explore how climatic variation can maintain polyphenisms and promote life history diversity, as well as the implications of climate change for polyphenisms.

Survival rates in the world's southernmost forest bird community.

The Magellanic sub-Antarctic Forest is home to the world's southernmost avian community and is the only Southern Hemisphere analogue to Northern Hemisphere temperate forests at this latitude. This region is considered among the few remaining pristine areas of the world, and shifts in environmental conditions are predominantly driven by climate variability. Thus, understanding climate-driven demographic processes is critical for addressing conservation issues in this system under future climate change scenarios. Here, we describe annual survival patterns and their association with climate variables using a 20-year mark-recapture data set of five forest bird species in the Cape Horn Biosphere Reserve. We develop a multispecies hierarchical survival model to jointly explore age-dependent survival probabilities at the community and species levels in a group of five forest passerines. At the community level, we assess the association of migratory behavior and body size with survival, and at the species level, we investigate the influence of local and regional climatic variables on temporal variations of survival. We found a positive effect of precipitation and a negative effect of El Niño Southern Oscillation on juvenile survival in the white-crested Elaenia and a consistent but uncertain negative effect of temperature on survival in juveniles and 80% of adults. We found only a weak association of climate variables with survival across species in the community and no temporal trends in survival for any of the species in either age class, highlighting apparent stability in these high austral latitude forests. Finally, our findings provide an important resource of survival probabilities, a necessary input for assessing potential impacts of global climate change in this unique region of the world.

Juvenile life history diversity is associated with lifetime individual heterogeneity in a migratory fish

AbstractDifferences in the life history pathways (LHPs) of juvenile animals are often associated with differences in demographic rates in later life stages. For migratory animals, different LHPs often result in animals from the same population occupying distinct habitats subjected to different environmental drivers. Understanding how demographic rates differ among animals expressing different LHPs may reveal fitness trade‐offs that drive the expression of alternative LHPs and enable better prediction of population dynamics in a changing environment. To understand how demographic outcomes and their relationships with environmental variables differ among animals with different LHPs, we analyzed a long‐term (2006–2021) mark–recapture dataset for Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) from the Wenatchee River, Washington, USA. Distinct LHPs represented in this population include either remaining in the natal stream until emigrating to the ocean as a 1‐year‐old (natal‐reach rearing) or emigrating from the natal stream and rearing in downstream habitats for several months before completing the emigration to the ocean as a 1‐year‐old (downstream rearing). We found that downstream‐rearing fish emigrated to the ocean 19 days earlier on average and returned as adults from the ocean at higher rates. We detected a positive correlation between rate of return from the ocean by downstream‐rearing fish and coastal upwelling in their spring of outmigration, whereas for natal‐reach‐rearing fish we detected a positive correlation with sea surface temperature during their first marine summer. Different responses to environmental variability should lead to asynchrony in adult abundance among juvenile LHPs. A higher proportion of downstream‐rearing fish returned at younger ages compared with natal‐reach‐rearing fish, which contributed to variability in age at reproduction and greater mixing across generations. Our results demonstrate how diversity in juvenile LHPs is associated with heterogeneity in demographic rates during subsequent life stages, which can in turn affect variance in aggregate population abundance and response to environmental change. Our findings underscore the importance of considering life history diversity in demographic analyses and provide insights into the effects of life history diversity on population dynamics and trade‐offs that contribute to the maintenance of life history diversity.

Know what you don't know: Embracing state uncertainty in disease‐structured multistate models

Abstract Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are broadly applicable hierarchical models that derive their utility from separating state processes from observation processes yielding the data. Multistate models such as mark–recapture and dynamic multistate occupancy models are HMMs frequently used in ecology. In their early formulations, states, such as pathogen infection status, were assumed to be perfectly observed without ambiguity. However, state uncertainty is a pervasive feature of many ecological studies, and multievent models were developed to explicitly account for it. We developed a novel extended multievent mark–recapture model that incorporates state uncertainty at multiple levels of detection. Using a disease‐structured example, both false negative and false positive state assignment errors are modelled at two levels of state assignment—the pathogen sampling process and the diagnostic process that samples are subjected to. We additionally describe methods to jointly model infection intensity to integrate heterogeneity in ecological parameters, such as mortality and infection dynamics, and the pathogen detection processes. We provide code to simulate and analyse datasets with various underlying ecological processes and fit our model to a mark–recapture dataset of Mixophyes fleayi (Fleay's barred frog) infected with the amphibian chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, Bd). In our case study, we found evidence for various state assignment errors: the sampling protocol performed poorly in detecting Bd, pathogen detection was highly dependent on infection intensity and false positives were non‐negligible. Incorporating state uncertainty yielded significantly higher estimates of infection prevalence and 4–5 times lower rates of infection state transitions compared to those obtained from a traditional multistate model. Our results highlight that incorporating state assignment errors improves inference on the ecological process, especially when sensitivity and specificity of the state assignment processes are low. The general model structure can be applied to other HMMs, providing a foundation for modelling state uncertainty in related models. For disease‐structured multistate models, we recommend conducting robust design surveys and collecting samples during each capture event to facilitate incorporating pathogen detection errors.

Long‐lasting effects of harsh early‐life conditions on adult survival of a long‐lived vertebrate

Early life conditions, especially in long‐lived organisms, can have both immediate and long‐lasting effects in vital traits generating demographic structure across cohorts. Multiple non‐exclusive hypotheses have been proposed to explore this question. For instance, the silver spoon, the viability selection or the predictive adaptive response hypothesis, predict that long lasting effects resulting from harsh early conditions could be negative, positive or vary with current environmental conditions, respectively. We use an 18‐year capture–mark–recapture dataset on adult Audouin's gulls Ichthyaetus audouinii to test for these different hypotheses while accounting for age, breeding experience and large‐scale dispersal. Audouin's gull cohorts experiencing harsh conditions during early life (i.e. nestling period and first winter) are known to experience lower first year survival. Here, we show that early life conditions also explained a large proportion (54%) of adult survival variation among cohorts. However, adulthood cohorts experiencing poor early life conditions had higher adult survival, in accordance with the viability selection hypothesis. Our results also show that apparent inexperienced breeders showed lower survival than experienced ones. Moreover, adult survival decreased with age. These results could suggest an increased cost of reproduction for deferred breeders, individual quality differences or survival senescence in this population. Overall, our study highlights the importance of early development, age and breeding experience as potential factors generating heterogeneity of survival between cohorts. Understanding the mechanisms driving responses to early life conditions at different life stages is fundamental to understanding the long‐term dynamics of wild populations.

Migration patterns of Greenland halibut in the North Atlantic revealed by a compiled mark–recapture dataset

Abstract Marine fisheries are often allocated to stocks that reflect pragmatic considerations and may not represent the species’ spatial population structure, increasing the risk of mismanagement and unsustainable harvesting. Here we compile mark–recapture data collected across the North Atlantic to gain insight into the spatial population structure of Greenland halibut (Reinhardtius hippoglossoides), an issue that has been unresolved for decades. The dataset contains 168130 fish tagged from 1952 to 2021, with 5466 (3.3%) recaptured individuals. Our results indicate that fish tagged at <50 cm body length migrate at higher rates, suggesting that mark–recapture studies on adult individuals underestimate population-level migration rates. We find evidence for migrations across management units in the North Atlantic indicating two regional offshore populations: one in the Northeast Atlantic, where the West Nordic and Northeast Arctic stocks, currently managed separately, likely belong to a single population that spans from the Kara Sea to Southeast Greenland; and one in the Northwest Atlantic where migration was observed between the Newfoundland and Labrador stock and the Northwest Arctic stock in Davis Strait and Baffin Bay. Our findings indicate complex population structure with implications for international and domestic fisheries management of this long-lived species.

No detectable effect of geolocator deployment on the short‐ or long‐term apparent survival of a tropical seabird

A wide range of biologging devices are now commonly deployed to study the movement ecology of birds, but deployment of these devices is not without its potential risks and negative impacts on the welfare, behaviour and fitness of tagged individuals. However, empirical evidence for the effects of tags is equivocal. Global location sensing (GLS) loggers are small, light level recording devices that are well suited to studying the large‐scale migratory movements of many birds. However, few published studies have examined their impact on adult survival, a key demographic rate for long‐lived species, such as seabirds. To address this, we have collated a long‐term mark–recapture dataset in conjunction with a 10‐year GLS tagging programme and examined the impact of tarsus‐mounted GLS loggers on the adult apparent survival probabilities of a medium‐sized tropical gadfly petrel. We found no evidence to indicate that deployment of GLS loggers affected apparent adult survival probabilities either in the short term, i.e. during deployment, or in the long term, i.e. from carrying a device at some point in the past. Annual adult apparent survival was estimated at 0.965 (95% CI 0.962–0.968) during 1993–2018. Our findings suggest that using GLS loggers to document the movements of medium‐sized gadfly petrels over multiple years is a viable technique without negatively impacting adult survival. This result has potential relevance to movement ecology studies of other ecologically and morphologically similar seabirds through GLS logger deployments.

Age-structured model reveals prolonged immigration is key for colony establishment in Gentoo Penguins

AbstractUnderstanding the mechanisms of site colonization and range expansion is crucial to understanding population dynamics, particularly for colonial seabirds that may struggle to shift their breeding ranges under climate change. We provide an alternative and simple approach to estimating the number of migrating individuals among colonies when original mark–recapture datasets are not available for use in more integrated and established methods. Here we fit an age-structured population model with published vital rates and breeding success rates to simple point counts of abundance using rejection-based approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) to estimate the contribution of immigration to four recently colonized Gentoo Penguin (Pygoscelis papua) breeding sites on the Western Antarctic Peninsula. We found that sustained immigration over several years was required to generate the rapid population growth observed, with some sites even showing evidence of an accelerating immigration rate following initial colonization. We demonstrate that our method is capable of estimating the contribution of immigration to population growth in a species where mark–recapture datasets are unavailable. By leveraging census data that are relatively easy to obtain, our approach provides a new method for understanding how range expansions occur in species such as Antarctic penguins whose habitat is undergoing changing climate conditions.

Divergence in life-history traits among three adjoining populations of the sea snake Emydocephalus annulatus (Hydrophiinae, Elapidae)

Life-history traits such as rates of growth, survival and reproduction can vary though time within a single population, or through space among populations, due to abiotically-driven changes in resource availability. In terrestrial reptiles, parameters such as temperature and rainfall generate variation in life-histories—but other parameters likely are more important in marine systems. We studied three populations of sea snakes (Emydocephalus annulatus) in adjacent bays in the IndoPacific archipelago of New Caledonia. The extreme philopatry of individual snakes allows us to unambiguously allocate each animal to one of the three populations. Although water temperatures and rainfall do not differ over this small scale, one site experiences more intense winds, restricting opportunities for foraging. Our 18-year mark-recapture dataset (> 1,200 snakes, > 2,400 captures) reveals significant divergence among populations in life-history traits. Survival rates and population densities were similar among sites, but snakes at the most wind-exposed site (Anse Vata) exhibited lower body condition, slower growth, less frequent production of litters, and smaller litters. Weather-driven variation in feeding rates thus may affect life-history traits of marine snakes as well as their terrestrial counterparts, but driven by different parameters (e.g., wind exposure rather than variation in temperatures or rainfall).

Joint estimation of growth and survival from mark-recapture data to improve estimates of senescence in wild populations: Reply.

We are grateful for Keevil's (2020) identification of a mistakenly limited prior in the code we supplied as a supplement to Reinke et al. 2020, describing a new model. Within our paper, we demonstrated use of a hierarchical model using mark-recapture datasets which were also published as supplementary material. The introduction of the model was the focus of our paper and the code was included as a courtesy to those who would like to use the model, with parameters adjusted to suit their needs. This transparency allowed Keevil (2020) to run our model with the provided example datasets, identify the limited prior, and set values of their choosing. We are thus pleased to see firsthandthe benefits of open access in science.

Climatic factors and population demography in big-eared woodrat,Neotoma macrotis

AbstractChanges in temperature and rainfall patterns can have marked impacts on small mammal populations that inhabit environments with highly fluctuating water availability. With projected increases in droughts and fewer but more intense rainfall events in the Southwestern United States, the persistence of many wildlife populations may be threatened. Our goal was to assess how temperature and rainfall during distinct dry and wet seasons influenced the dynamics of a population of big-eared woodrats (Neotoma macrotis) in a mixed oak woodland of coastal central California. We applied Pradel’s temporal symmetry models to our 21-year biannual capture–mark–recapture data set (1993–2014) to determine the effects of climatic factors on the woodrats’ apparent survival (Φ) and recruitment rate (f). Monthly Φ averaged 0.945 ± 0.001 and varied with season. Monthly f was 0.064 ± 0.001 in the wet season (f was fixed to 0 in the dry season). Monthly population growth rate (λ) varied from 0.996 ± 0.001 during the dry season to 1.001 ± 0.001 during the wet season, which indicated a stable population (0.999 ± 0.001). Total rainfall from the previous season and mean temperature during the same season positively influenced Φ and f. By contrast, Φ and f were negatively influenced by mean temperature from the previous season and total rainfall in the same season. The resulting λ fluctuated with total rainfall, particularly in the wet season. Our results suggest that the big-eared woodrat population may not be substantially affected by warm temperatures per se, potentially because of the microclimate provided by its stick houses. We also discuss its adaptability to local food resources and relatively slow life history relative to other cricetids, and propose that the big-eared woodrat population may be equipped to cope with future climate change.

Breeding dispersal movements of Dupont’s Lark Chersophilus duponti in fragmented landscape

SummaryUnderstanding patterns of dispersal behaviour of threatened species is important in conservation biology and population ecology, especially in fragmented landscapes. Dupont’s Lark Chersophilusduponti is a threatened passerine whose European population has declined by around 40% in the last decade. To study natal and breeding dispersal of the species, we used a long-term mark-recapture dataset (2011–2019) and analysed the records of 32 males (39 dispersal movements) and five females (five dispersal movements) captured during the breeding season at Rincón de Ademuz (Valencia, eastern Spain). Adult birds had a median breeding dispersal of 154 m (Q25-Q75 = 70.0–300.3). Among these captures, two adult males dispersed to a new patch of habitat separated by more than 5,800 m. Only one out of 26 nestlings ringed was trapped as an adult bird, which occurred at a site different from the natal territory (4,500 m). Our results show a low breeding dispersal for the species and are, in essence, in agreement with previous studies carried out in the Ebro Valley metapopulation, one of the core areas for the species in Europe. Nonetheless, unlike in the Ebro Valley, we detected movements of adult birds between habitat patches. The low recovery rate of young birds suggests that they left their natal sites and moved outside the study area or that their survival rate was very low. Future studies focused on the post-fledging survival rate and natal dispersal movements are essential to determine effective conservation measures for the species. Habitat management actions in occupied and potential sites should be carried out close to the areas inhabited by the species to increase the success rate of the interventions and the effective dispersal and therefore population connectivity.

Infectious disease and sickness behaviour: tumour progression affects interaction patterns and social network structure in wild Tasmanian devils.

Infectious diseases, including transmissible cancers, can have a broad range of impacts on host behaviour, particularly in the latter stages of disease progression. However, the difficulty of early diagnoses makes the study of behavioural influences of disease in wild animals a challenging task. Tasmanian devils (Sarcophilus harrisii) are affected by a transmissible cancer, devil facial tumour disease (DFTD), in which tumours are externally visible as they progress. Using telemetry and mark-recapture datasets, we quantify the impacts of cancer progression on the behaviour of wild devils by assessing how interaction patterns within the social network of a population change with increasing tumour load. The progression of DFTD negatively influences devils' likelihood of interaction within their network. Infected devils were more active within their network late in the mating season, a pattern with repercussions for DFTD transmission. Our study provides a rare opportunity to quantify and understand the behavioural feedbacks of disease in wildlife and how they may affect transmission and population dynamics in general.

From satellites to frogs: Quantifying ecohydrological change, drought mitigation, and population demography in desert meadows

Increasing frequency and severity of droughts have motivated natural resource managers to mitigate harmful ecological and hydrological effects of drought, but drought mitigation is an emerging science and evaluating its effectiveness is difficult. We examined ecohydrological responses of drought mitigation actions aimed at conserving populations of the Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) in a semi-arid valley in Nevada, USA. Abundance of this rare frog had declined precipitously after multiple droughts. Mitigation included excavating ponds to increase available surface water and installing earthen dams to raise water tables. We assessed responses of riparian vegetation to mitigation using a 30-year time series of satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and gridded weather data. We then analyzed a 23-year mark-recapture dataset to evaluate the effects of drought mitigation and NDVI on the probability of frog survival and rates of recruitment. After accounting for interannual precipitation variability, we found that NDVI increased significantly from before to after drought mitigation, suggesting that mitigation influenced the hydrology and vegetation of the meadows. Frog survival increased with NDVI, but mitigation had a stronger effect than NDVI suggesting that excavated mitigation ponds were particularly important for frog survival during drought. In contrast, frog recruitment was associated with NDVI more than mitigation, but only in meadows where NDVI was dependent on precipitation. At meadows with available groundwater, recruitment was associated with mitigation ponds. These findings suggest that mitigation ponds are critical for juvenile frogs to recruit into the adult population, but recruitment can also be increased by raising water tables in meadows lacking groundwater sources. Lagged recruitment (i.e., effects on larvae and juveniles) was negatively associated with NDVI. This study illustrates the ecohydrological complexity of drought mitigation and demonstrates novel ways to assess the effectiveness of drought mitigation using time series of readily available satellite imagery and organismal data.

Peregrine Falcon Survival Rates Derived from a Long-Term Study at a Migratory and Overwintering Area in Coastal Washington, USA

After a well-documented recovery following substantial population declines throughout most of North America, the Peregrine Falcon (Falco peregrinus) was delisted under provisions of the Endangered Species Act in 1999. Post-delisting monitoring for the Peregrine Falcon stipulated surveys of breeding locations and did not specifically emphasize other metrics of population dynamics such as survival. We used banding data from Peregrine Falcons captured on the Washington coast during 1212 vehicle surveys between 1995 and 2018 to assess apparent survival and resighting frequencies. Our mark-recapture data set included 226 Peregrine Falcons: 148 females and 78 males. Fourteen Peregrine Falcons were recovered dead and another eight were found injured or uninjured and unable to fly due to illness or substantially soiled feathers. We had 744 resightings, 67.1% (n = 499) by our research group during surveys (Group A) and 32.9% (n = 245) by others (Group B). We found a dramatic increase in Group B contributions beginning in 2008 due to the emergence of digital camera use in wildlife photography and increased public awareness of our project. Data from 1995 to 2018 supported the estimation of apparent survival for three age classes of Peregrine Falcons: 0.424 (SE = 0.057) for hatch-year ( 2 yr old). Our long-term mark-resighting analyses of overwintering and migratory Peregrine Falcons along the Washington coast provide evidence of a reasonably high level of apparent survival that suggests good population performance.

Expanding the feasibility of fish and wildlife assessments with close‐kin mark–recapture

AbstractClose‐kin mark–recapture (CKMR) is a powerful new method for the assessment of fish and wildlife population dynamics. Unlike traditional mark–recapture techniques, the use of kinship as an identifying mark is robust to many forms of capture heterogeneity including variation in gear efficiency and tagging‐based effects such as loss and differential mortality. In addition, close‐kin methods can be applied to a wider range of sampling designs than traditional methods (e.g., single‐occasion surveys and lethal capture), can provide retrospective historical abundance estimates, and can produce survival estimates from as few as two sampling occasions. We evaluated the ability of CKMR to provide estimates of abundance and adult survival and then compared results to those from traditional mark–recapture. This analysis incorporated data from a three‐year study of lake resident brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) where individuals were both physically (PIT) tagged and genotyped for 44 de novo developed microsatellites with high throughput sequencing. Traditional mark–recapture estimates were derived using Pollock’s Robust Design, relying upon three primary open sampling occasions and four secondary closed occasions. We found that close‐kin methods produced contemporary estimates of adult abundance and survival that were similar to those produced by traditional mark–recapture in both magnitude and precision. Furthermore, CKMR provided abundance estimates for multiple years prior to sampling and, when restricted to data from a single year, still produced reliable abundance estimates for at least one and as many as three years. Retrospective abundance estimates corresponded with those from a separate historical two‐sample mark–recapture dataset. This study provides support for the use of CKMR as a robust and sampling‐efficient alternative to traditional mark–recapture methods of assessing population parameters.

Vulnerability of threatened Australian humpback dolphins to flooding and port development within the southern Great Barrier Reef coastal region

In this study, we used a 10-year (2007–2016) mark-recapture dataset to investigate the potential effects of flooding and port development on the population dynamics of Australian humpback dolphins (Sousa sahulensis), inhabiting the Fitzroy River and Port Curtis, within the southern Great Barrier Reef region. A Multisite Capture-Recapture model was used to quantify population size and demographic parameters for both sexes and sites. Flood occurrence and intensity (both sites), and port development (Port Curtis) were included as explanatory variables. Abundance estimates indicated that about 77 adult dolphins were present in both sites, of which 69% were females. Most females (69%) were resident with a yearly recruitment close to zero for most years. Most males and unsexed (68%) individuals showed little evidence of long-term residency. The abundances of males and unsexed individuals varied between 15 and 20 dolphins in the Fitzroy River and 19–26 in Port Curtis, but the accuracy was too low to assess changes. Female abundances started at 56 in both sites and declined to about 32 per site in 2011, coinciding with port development construction activities and a concurrent major flood. In Port Curtis, the number of females returned to their original levels once the port development was completed in 2013. In the Fitzroy River, the declining trend continued and reached the lowest estimated abundance of 29 in 2016. As port developments and floods are expected to increase along the Queensland coastal region over coming decades, the results of this study highlight increasing concerns about the vulnerability and long-term sustainability of inshore dolphins in the GBR.

Hatchery Rearing of Lake Sturgeon to Age 1 Prior to Stocking: A Path Forward for Species Recovery in the Upper Nelson River, Manitoba, Canada

AbstractThe release of hatchery‐reared age‐0 Lake SturgeonAcipenser fulvescenshas proven sufficient to re‐establish mid‐latitude populations, but there was minimal evidence of poststocking survival in the functionally extirpated population of the upper Nelson River, Manitoba, until the practice of rearing fish to age 1 in the hatchery began in 2007. After 5 years of poststocking monitoring (2012–2016), mark–recapture data sets have yielded important information regarding survival, dispersal shortly after stocking, post‐establishment movement and emigration, and growth, clarifying a path forward for Lake Sturgeon recovery initiatives in this system. Based on Cormack–Jolly–Seber models, mean cohort‐specific apparent survival (i.e., consolidated survival and retention of fish within the reach) for Lake Sturgeon reared to age 1 in the hatchery from the time of stocking until the period of post‐first‐winter recapture in the wild (predominantly at age 2) was estimated to range from 0.08 (95% CI = 0.06–0.11) to 0.49 (95% CI = 0.41–0.56); dispersal occurring shortly after stocking was identified as at least partially influential. In the years after poststocking establishment (i.e., age 2 and older), apparent survival of the fish that established in the primary reach was estimated at 0.99–1.00, indicative of negligible mortality and negligible emigration. The stocked Lake Sturgeon exhibited growth patterns similar to (or even outpacing) those of wild populations occupying comparable habitats in Manitoba. Moreover, data indicate that growth trajectories set early in life persist throughout the juvenile stage. The results of upper Nelson River poststocking monitoring provide quantitative support for a stocking strategy predicated on rearing Lake Sturgeon over winter in the hatchery followed by release at age 1 during spring, thus striking a balance between high poststocking survival and moderate hatchery rearing costs.