Changes In Marginal Tax Rates Research Articles

Labor Supply Responses to Income Taxation among Older Couples: Evidence from a Canadian Reform

I assess whether the tax code is a viable policy lever for influencing labor supply among older workers. Specifically, using administrative data from Canada, I estimate the earnings responses to a unique reform that lowered tax burdens for couples with a pensioner, using quasi-experimental methods. I find that workers decrease labor supply as tax bills decline but do not respond to changes in marginal tax rates. Hence, while public policy often aims to keep people in the workforce longer, there are conflicting effects of offering tax advantage for seniors on work incentives. I consider implications of these results for age-dependent taxation. (JEL H24, H31, H55, J14, J22)

Individuals’ responsiveness to marginal tax rates: Evidence from bunching in the Australian personal income tax

We examine individuals’ responsiveness to marginal tax rates using the universe of Australian taxpayer records from 2000 to 2018. Unlike studies from other countries, we find sharp bunching at all kink points. The estimated Elasticities of Taxable Income (ETI) range from effectively zero for wage earners to 0.23 for self-employed individuals. There is substantial heterogeneity in responses to changes in marginal tax rates across subgroups, with higher elasticities for married females, females with children, younger individuals, and those with greater opportunity to shift income within the household. Our findings suggest that individuals’ responsiveness is a function of the marginal tax rates and the tax system's structure and administration.

Identity’s Shadow Prices: The Case of Charity

ABSTRACT This paper develops a rational action model of charitable giving based on an expanded utility function that includes “identity utility”. The model is used to develop a procedure that can identify, from changes in individual donations over time, whether they are simply reactions to changes in the “prices” of charity--determined by changes in marginal tax rates--or due to changes in donor attitudes towards the charitable causes they support. An approach to using this procedure for market research is proposed.

BEHAVIORAL REACTION TO THE 2008 INCOME TAX REFORM IN INDONESIA: A BUNCHING ANALYSIS

Income tax reforms generally constitute some changes in marginal tax rates and its income thresholds which often lead to a higher tax liability. Taxpayers may respond to these changes differently, mainly by trying to lower their tax payments. Self-employed individuals have a greater incentive to strategically adjust to a lower income declaration. Using administrative tax data, this paper examines the reaction of self-employed taxpayers to the 2008 Indonesian Income Tax Reform using bunching analysis. Beside a clear evidence on bunching around the first kink point, our empirical findings suggest that Indonesia exhibits special cases. We find an inertia of pre-reform bunching around the first kink point in later years as well as an extraordinary bunching above the first kink point in the post-reform periods.

Changes in marginal tax rates over the past three decades in the United States

AbstractThis paper investigates changes in corporate marginal tax rates (MTRs) in the United States over the past three decades. Similar to effective tax rate, MTR exhibits a significant but much more modest decline over time, even after accounting for tax‐related firm characteristics and industry variations. In contrast to Dyreng et al., we find that MTR declines more rapidly for purely domestic firms than for multinationals. Our findings highlight the puzzling evidence in Dyreng et al. and call for future research to study possible drivers that explain the sustained and differential decline in corporate tax rate over time between domestic and multinational firms.

Does Labor Supply Respond to a Flat Tax? Evidence from the Russian Tax Reform

We exploit the exogenous change in marginal tax rates created by the Russian flat tax reform of 2001 to identify the effect of taxes on labor supply of males and females. We apply the weighted difference-in-difference regression approach and instrumental variables to the labor supply function estimated on individual panel data. The mean regression results indicate that the tax reform led to a statistically significant increase in male hours of work but had no effect on that of females. However, we find a positive response to tax changes at both tails of the female hour distribution. We also find that the reform increased the probability of finding a job among both males and females. Despite significant variation in individual responses, the aggregate labor supply elasticities are trivial and suggest that reform-induced changes in labor supply were an unlikely explanation for the amplified personal income tax revenues that followed the reform.

The elasticity of taxable income in Spain: 1999\u20132014

We study how taxable income responds to changes in marginal tax rates, using as a main source of identifying variation three large reforms to the Spanish personal income tax implemented in the period 1999–2014. The most reliable estimates of the elasticity of taxable income (ETI) with respect to the net-of-tax rate for this period are between 0.45 and 0.64. The ETI is about three times larger for self-employed taxpayers than for employees and larger for business income than for labor and capital income. The elasticity of broad income is smaller, between 0.10 and 0.24, while the elasticity of some tax deductions such as the one for private pension contributions exceeds one. Our estimates are similar across a variety of estimation methods and sample restrictions and also robust to potential biases created by mean reversion and heterogeneous income trends.

Lessons for Tax Reform from an Equilibrium Model of Innovation

We formulate and estimate a general equilibrium model of innovation-led growth and use it to evaluate the quantitative implications of individual income tax reforms for innovation and aggregate productivity growth. In the model, innovation comes from entrants creating new products and incumbents improving own existing products. We estimate the model parameters by matching key moments of U.S. data. The model generates an aggregate labor supply elasticity and a per capita GDP growth response to marginal tax rate changes that are consistent with available empirical estimates. We find that the model accounts reasonably well for the observed movements in TFP, labor productivity, hours worked and number of firms per capita during the “Reagan tax cuts” of the eighties. The model predicts that a temporary, deficit-financed, 3 percentage points cut in the average marginal individual income tax rate, set to expire in 2025, produces a temporary TFP growth acceleration leading to a 6 percent increase in real per capita GDP by year 2040.

The Elasticity of Taxable Income in Spain: 1999-2014

We study how taxable income responds to changes in marginal tax rates, using as a main source of identifying variation three large reforms to the Spanish personal income tax implemented in the period 1999-2014. The most reliable estimates of the elasticity of taxable income (ETI) with respect to the net-of-tax rate for this period are between 0.45 and 0.64. The ETI is about three times larger for self-employed taxpayers than for employees, and larger for business income than for labor and capital income. The elasticity of broad income (EBI) is smaller, between 0.10 and 0.24, while the elasticity of some tax deductions such as the one for private pension contributions exceeds one. Our estimates are similar across a variety of estimation methods and sample restrictions, and also robust to potential biases created by mean reversion and heterogeneous income trends.

Elasticity of Taxable Income: Evidence from Changes in Municipal Income Tax Rates in Finland

AbstractThe elasticity of taxable income (ETI) is a key parameter in income tax analysis, in terms of both efficiency and tax revenue. In this paper, I use Finnish data to analyze the ETI. I use changes in flat municipal income tax rates as an instrument for overall changes in marginal tax rates. This instrument is not a function of individual income, and thus the ETI estimates are less susceptible to bias caused by differential trends across the income distribution. In general, instruments used in previous studies do not have this feature. My preferred estimate for the average ETI is 0.21.

Marginal Tax Rates and Income: New Time Series Evidence*

This paper estimates the dynamic effects of marginal tax rate changes on income reported on tax returns in the United States over the 1950-2010 period. After isolating exogenous variation in average marginal tax rates in structural vector autoregressions using a narrative identification approach, I find large positive effects of tax cuts in the top 1% of the income distribution. In contrast to earlier findings based on tax return data, I also find large effects in other income percentile brackets. A hypothetical tax reform cutting marginal rates only for the top 1% leads to sizeable increases in top 1% incomes and has a positive effect on real GDP. There are also spillover effects to incomes outside of the top 1%, but top marginal rate cuts lead to greater inequality in pre-tax incomes.

Labour supply elasticities in New Zealand

ABSTRACTThe aim of this paper is to explore alternative labour supply elasticity concepts in cross-sectional contexts and to present empirical results for New Zealand. Emphasis is placed on the elasticity of hours worked with respect to a change in the gross wage rate, though it is shown that the gross wage elasticity is usually sufficient when considering labour supply responses to effective marginal tax rate changes. The elasticities presented here, for both intensive and extensive margins and for a range of demographic groups, are based on simulated labour supply responses to a proportional change in gross wage rates using the New Zealand Treasury's behavioural microsimulation model, Taxwell-B. This uses a discrete-hours random-utility specification of preferences. Comparisons are made with the only previous estimates for NZ. As for other countries, elasticities at the extensive margin are found to be larger than at the intensive margin.

THE AFFORDABLE CARE ACT, LABOR SUPPLY, AND SOCIAL WELFARE

This paper converts Congressional Budget Office estimates of the labor supply effects of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) into social welfare effects for each of the major individual provisions of the law. The sum of these negative, individual welfare effects can be reduced, almost to zero, by utilizing alternative assumptions about labor supply elasticities and the ability of individuals to perceive changes in marginal tax rates. Incorporation of previous estimates of the welfare-enhancing aspects of the ACA would likely outweigh the small, negative (and possibly negligible) welfare losses caused by the law's labor supply distortions.

Progressive taxation in a tournament economy

Not enough is known about the responsiveness of individuals, in particular those who work under different incentives, to changes in marginal tax rates. We ask whether changes in tax rates are less distortionary for workers engaged in a contest. To examine this potential rationale for a more progressive tax code, we first model the effort decisions of workers faced with progressive taxation under tournaments and piece rates. Because of the difficulty identifying any distortion that may be induced by the tax code in naturally occurring data, we then report on the results of a real-effort experiment based on this model. Consistent with a behavioral approach to public finance, we find that competitive tournament workers are less sensitive and hint, in our discussion, at the possible welfare benefits of progressive taxation in tournament economies.

The impact of tax rate changes on intercorporate investment

We examine how tax rates impact investment by corporations in the stock market. We regress changes in intercorporate investment on changes in the various individual and corporate top statutory marginal tax rates (MTRs). We find a significant negative association between changes in individual capital gains MTRs and changes in intercorporate investment, while no such association is evident for changes in either individual ordinary or dividend MTRs. These results support the notion that corporations respond to the after-tax rate of return and/or market efficiency consequences brought about by a change in individual capital gains MTRs. We find a significant positive relation between changes in intercorporate investment and changes in corporate MTRs on ordinary income. These results are consistent with corporations scaling back expansion plans and instead investing free cash flows in equity securities as MTRs increase.

Behavioral Responses to Payroll and Income Taxes in the UK

I study behavioral responses to changes in marginal tax rates of social security and income taxes. I find that responses depend on individual’s employment status: whether a worker is a wage earner, self-employed, or a proprietor. In line with the existing literature I document weak (but statistically significant) bunching at kink points of the tax schedule among wage earners. Starting from 1999, wage earners accumulate pension credits when they exceed a certain threshold, however, no contributions are due until earnings reach a second, higher threshold. Even 10 years after this reform I find no bunching to the right of the eligibility threshold, suggesting that individuals do not assign a high value to pension benefits. Lack of bunching is persistent across age groups and unlikely to be explained by friction costs as individuals are able to bunch at other kink points. I find strong responses to tax incentives among the self-employed but the responses differ by the type of kink. I find sharp bunching at the first kink, medium bunching at the top kink and weak bunching at the middle kink. Comparing responses before and after a tax reform that changed the magnitude of kinks I find that self-employed individuals aggressively reduce earnings to bunch at the lower, more salient kink points. Finally, I document large income shifting by proprietors: many firm owners report most of income as dividends thus avoiding social security taxes. Nevertheless many proprietors choose to pay themselves sub-optimally high wages thus incurring an unnecessarily high tax liability. I show that some of these proprietors pay multiples of £5,000 or £6,000.

Debt and Taxes: Marginal Tax Rate Changes, Capital Structure, and Innovative Activity in the Biotechnology Sector

The purpose of this investigation was to examine the association between changes in corporate marginal tax rates (MTRs) and measures of both innovative activity and capital structure among publicly-traded biotechnology firms. Across a 1980-2010 time frame, a five-year distributed Almon lag model was utilized to assess the effect of annual changes in MTRs upon patenting activity, research and development (R&D) expenditures, cash and short-term investments, debt-to-asset ratios, and debt-to-equity ratios. Across the 99 biotech firms studied, results suggested that increases in MTRs were significantly associated with marked decreases in patents, R&D expenditures, and cash and other short-term investments. Additionally, large and statistically significant increases in both debt-to-asset and debt-to-equity ratios were observed with annual increases in MTRs. While this research can not necessarily discern whether capital structure changes occurred either as an ex-ante response to or an ex-post result of MTR increases, the implication of decreased patenting activity warrants continued evaluations of both internal financial decision making and external tax policy.

Taxes, wages and working hours

This paper presents estimates of individuals’ responses in hourly wages to changes in marginal tax rates. Estimates based on register panel data of Swedish households covering the period 1992 to 2011 produce significant but relatively small net-of-tax rate elasticities. The results vary with family type, with the largest elasticities obtained for single males and the smallest for married/cohabitant females. Despite these seemingly small elasticities, evaluation of the effects of a reduced state tax using a microsimulation model shows that the effort effect matters. The largest effect is due to changes in number of working hours yet including the effort effect results in an almost self-financed reform. As a reference to the earlier literature, we also estimate taxable income elasticities. As expected, these are larger than for the hourly wage rates. However, both specifications produce significantly and positive income effects. One contribution is related to the definition of the instruments used to solve the well-known problem of endogeneity.

Taxable Income Elasticity and the Anatomy of Behavioral Response: Evidence from Finland

This paper uses extensive Finnish panel data from 1995–2007 to analyze the elasticity of taxable income (ETI). I use individual changes in flat municipal income tax rates as an instrument for the overall changes in marginal tax rates. This instrument is not a function of individual income, which is the basis for an exogenous instrument in the taxable income model. In general, instruments used in previous studies do not have this feature. Furthermore, I estimate behavioral responses using smaller subcomponents of taxable income, such as working hours, fringe benefits and tax deductions. This “anatomy” of overall ETI has rarely been studied in the literature. The results show that the average ETI estimate in Finland is 0.35–0.60, depending on the empirical specification and the degree of regional controlling. Subcomponent analysis suggests that neither work effort nor labor supply respond actively to tax changes. In contrast, it seems that fringe benefits and deductions from taxable income might have a larger effect.

Progressive Taxation in a Tournament Economy

Not enough is known about the responsiveness of individuals, in particular those who tend to work under different incentives, to changes in marginal tax rates. We ask whether changes in marginal tax rates are less distortionary for workers engaged in a contest. To examine this potential rationale for a more progressive tax code, we first model the effort decisions of workers faced with progressive taxation under tournaments and piece rates. Because of the difficulty identifying any distortion that may be induced by the tax code in naturally occurring data, we then report on the results of a real-effort experiment based on this model. Consistent with a behavioral approach to public finance, we find that tournament workers are less sensitive, and conclude with a tentative evaluation of the welfare benefits of progressive taxation in tournament economies.