March-June Period Research Articles

Forecasting of Inland Fish Production: Case of Catla (<em>Catla catla</em>) and Gift Tilapia (<em>Oreochromis niloticus</em>) Production in Udawalawa Reservoir in Sabaragamuwa Province, Sri Lanka

This study focused on assessing and forecasting Catla (Catla catla) and Tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) production in the Udawalawe reservoir in Sri Lanka using an 11-year time series data from 2010 to 2021. The relevant secondary data were collected from the National Aquaculture Development Authority of Sri Lanka (NAQDA). Unit root tests, Dickey-Fuller tests, and Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models and trend analysis were applied for the data analyses. According to the results, stationarity behaviour was observed in both Catla and Tilapia production information series. Hence, SARIMA (2,2,1) (1,0,1)12 is the appropriate empirical model for forecasting Catla production. Furthermore, the maximum average landings of Catla production were observed in the March-June time period. SARIMA (1,0,1) (1,1,1)12 was indicated as the most suitable model to forecast Tilapia production in the reservoir. The maximum average of Tilapia production was also observed in the March-June period. Both the SARIMA model and trend analysis gave approximately equal production information regarding Catla and Tilapia. Thus, these findings showed that the SARIMA model has more accuracy than trend analysis when analysing the time series information for short durations. However, when the duration becomes larger, forecasting is not suitable using the SARIMA model, and trend analysis gives a clear view up to a certain level. Both Catla and Tilapia production exhibited significant changing patterns and multiple seasonalities. Thus, trend analysis gives valuable insights than SARIMA model in long term predictions in case of this study. These findings are highly important for enhancing fish production in this reservoir, as they predict future fish catches under the current reservoir conditions.

Research on Tracking the Behavior of the Ciobanus Forest Road over a Season Time through Specific Tests and Analysis

Forest roads are of great economic importance as they ensure the transport of logs and forest biomass toward collection and processing centers, which is why they should be evaluated periodically, in order to establish the degree of degradation and periodicity and rehabilitation methodology and procedures. The main purpose of the paper is to follow the behavior of the Ciobanus forest road through specific tests over a difficult season of 5 months, in order to diagnose the degree of surface wear and structure degradation. Regarding the traffic on this forest road, an exhaustive study was made during the 2013–2017 period, and for in situ or in laboratory tests a more complex study during the year 2018, in the March-June period was also made. Out of the total of 20 tests that evaluated the Ciobanus forest road, 5 of them were classified as appropriate and 15 unsuitable for traffic, meaning the forest road had to be completely rehabilitated. Moreover, it has been shown that this forest road is part of the category of secondary forest roads and needs a total overhaul to cope with the increasing traffic or tonnage of trucks. Through the methodology and the obtained results, the paper supports the specialists in the field of forest roads to be able to diagnose or evaluate such a road, and to realize a program and its timing for maintenance.

The impact of COVID-19 on breast cancer care: Delays in screening.

130 Background: Breast cancer (BC) screening is an integral part of cancer prevention. COVID-19 posed multiple obstacles on ensuring continuity of cancer care. The short and long-term outcomes of the pandemic on BC screening is unknown. The purpose of this study is to examine the challenges the pandemic has on mammogram completion using a granular measure of social economic deprivation: Area deprivation index (ADI). Methods: A Retrospective cohort study was conducted at an academic hospital system at the epicenter of COVID-19 pandemic comparing BC screening rates during the year of 2019 (pre-COVID19) and 2020 (COVID-19). For the year 2020, only charts between January-February and July-December were reviewed. March-June period was avoided as the USA declared a national emergency and the American Cancer Society recommended to temporarily pause cancer screening. The outcome variable was mammogram completion. The predictor variables were: COVID-19 period, race, insurance, age and ADI. ADI is a validated dataset that ranks census block groups based on socioeconomic deprivation (SED). Chi-square and Wilcoxon rank sum test were used to compare categorical and continuous variables by receipt of mammography. A multivariate logistic regression was used for associations between mammogram completion and the predictor variables. Results: A total of 694 patients were deemed eligible for BC screening in the year of 2019 (394) and 2020 (300). During the follow up period, only 106 and 30 patients from the pre-COVID-19 and COVID-19 cohorts underwent BC screening, respectively. During the pandemic, 30/30 patients who completed their screening were African Americans and had a high SED. In a multivariable analysis, COVID-19 period is associated with 79% lower odds of mammogram completion (OR 0.21; 95% CI 0.13, 0.35). ADI and race were not associated with higher screening rates. Medicaid status is associated with higher odds of mammogram completion (OR 1.97; 95% CI 1.12, 3.47). Conclusions: COVID-19 caused significant disruption in BC screening. In an area with high SED and high COVID-19 infection rates, private insurance holders and white patients had low rates mammogram completion. One potential explanation is that these patients sought care elsewhere. [Table: see text]

Reductions in cancer screening: The consequence of changes in routine care during the COVID-19 pandemic.

10550 Background: The COVID-19 pandemic imposes significant impact on daily activities with regard to public health orders and individual responses to the pandemic. Much of the direct or indirect impact is potentially in reductions in healthcare encounters for services such as preventive care. Here, we quantified changes in cancer screening rates to better understand the impact of the evolving COVID-19 implications and shifts in health-seeking behaviors. Methods: We conducted a retrospective analysis of cancer screening rates during March-June 2019 (pre-COVID-19) and March-June 2020 (post-COVID-19 restrictions), using Optum’s de-identified Clinformatics Data Mart Database which includes Medicare and commercially insured members. Members meeting age and/or sex criteria as detailed in the United States Preventive Services Task Force recommendations for breast, colorectal, lung, prostate, and cervical cancer screening represented the eligible membership for screening. Procedure and laboratory services were used to identify those who received cancer screening. Analyses were conducted cross-sectionally by cancer screening type. Results: Eligible cohorts were identified from insured members within March-June 2019 and 2020 (2019: 17,931,318; 2020: 17,521,411). The percent of eligible members screened in March-June 2019 was 19.3%, 9.4%, 16.7%, 0.4%, and 7.8% for breast, cervical, prostate, lung, and colorectal cancer, respectively. Changes in screening rates from 2019 to 2020 are summarized in Table, with the sharpest decline in April. The percent change from 2019 to 2020 during the combined March-June period for each cancer screening type was statistically significant (p<0.0001). Conclusions: Routine cancer screening rates from March-June 2020 showed meaningful reductions when compared to the same period in 2019, with substantial declines during the initial peak of the pandemic in April. These declines may be impacted by variations in regional restrictions with tighter restrictions leading to larger screening declines and loosening restrictions reflecting catch-up screening. Efforts to promote cancer screening in a safe and timely manner are crucial given individual risk factors, to reduce later stage cancer diagnoses and improve clinical outcomes.[Table: see text]

Intussusception in children aged under two years in India: Retrospective surveillance at nineteen tertiary care hospitals

ObjectiveIntussusception has been linked with rotavirus vaccine (RVV) as a rare adverse reaction. In view of limited background data on intussusception in India and in preparation for RVV introduction, a surveillance network was established to document the epidemiology of intussusception cases in Indian children. MethodsIntussusception in children 2–23 months were documented at 19 nationally representative sentinel hospitals through a retrospective surveillance for 69 months (July 2010 to March 2016). For each case clinical, hospital course, treatment and outcome data were collected. ResultsAmong the 1588 intussusception cases, 54.5% were from South India and 66.3% were boys. The median age was 8 months (IQR 6, 12) with 34.6% aged 2–6 months. Seasonal variation with higher cases were documented during March-June period. The most common symptoms and signs were vomiting (63.4%), bloody stool (49.1%), abdominal pain (46.9%) and excessive crying (42.8%). The classical triad (vomiting, abdominal pain, and blood in stools) was observed in 25.6% cases. 96.4% cases were diagnosed by ultrasound with ileocolic location as the commonest (85.3%). Management was done by reduction (50.8%) and surgery (41.1%) and only 1% of the patients’ died. 91.1% cases met Brighton criteria level 1 and 3.3% Level 2. Between 2010 and 2015, the case load and case ratio increased across all regions. ConclusionIntussusception cases have occurred in children across all parts of the country, with low case fatality in the settings studied. The progressive rise cases could indicate an increasing awareness and availability of diagnostic facilities.

Respiratory outcomes of ultrafine particulate matter (UFPM) as a surrogate measure of near-roadway exposures among bicyclists

BackgroundStudies have shown a consistent association between exposure to traffic-related air pollution and adverse health effects. In particular, exposure can be high for cyclists who travel near roadways. The objective of the current study was to examine the relationship between short-term exposure of near-road traffic emissions and acute changes in lung function among individuals who frequently bike in the Sacramento and Davis areas in California. Ultrafine particulate matter (UFPM) was used as a surrogate for near-roadway exposure in this study since the main source of this pollutant is from motor vehicle exhaust.MethodsThirty-two bicyclists were recruited and completed two rides on separate days during the study period of March-June, 2008. One ride was on a high traffic route paralleling a section of Interstate 80 (I-80)/Interstate Business 80 (I-80B), and a second one was on a low traffic route, such as bike paths away from major highways. The participant’s lung function was measured before and after each ride, and UFPM exposure was measured during the rides using a condensation particle counter (CPC).ResultsIn the final linear mixed-effect model using median UFPM concentrations as the main exposure, we observed that lung function change (post–ride minus baseline measurements) shifted in the negative direction. Lung function changed by 216 mL for FVC and 168 mL for FEV1, respectively, for an interquartile range (IQR: 12,225 to 36,833 number of particles/cm3) increase of UFPM concentration after adjusting for other covariates of age, sex, wind direction, and day of the week.ConclusionsThis study found significant associations between increased levels of UFPM concentrations as a proxy for near road traffic pollution, and decrements in lung function measurements. Our results are related to short-term exposures, and the long-term health effects of cycling near heavy traffic require further research. Our study suggests the need to reduce traffic pollution, particularly near roads. Cyclists should plan their route to reduce their exposure where possible and further research on built environment designs may help urban planners to reduce the potential health concerns of cyclists’ exposure to traffic-related air pollution.

On the Relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation and Early Warm Season Temperatures in the Southwestern United States

Abstract It is reported herein that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which has been known to directly affect winter weather conditions in western Europe and the eastern United States, is also linked to surface air temperature over the broad southwestern U.S. (SWUS) region, encompassing California, Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, Utah, and Colorado, in the early warm season. The authors have performed monthly time-scale correlations and composite analyses using three different multidecadal temperature datasets. Results from these analyses reveal that NAO-related upstream circulation positively affects not only the means, but also the extremes, of the daily maximum and minimum temperatures in the SWUS. This NAO effect is primarily linked with the positioning of upper-tropospheric anticyclones over the western United States that are associated with development of the positive NAO phase through changes in lower-tropospheric wind directions as well as suppression of precipitation and enhanced shortwave radiation at the surface. The effect is observed in the SWUS only during the March–June period because the monthly migration of anticyclones over the western United States follows the migration of the NAO center over the subtropical Atlantic Ocean. The link between the SWUS temperatures and NAO has been strengthened in the last 30-yr period (1980–2009), compared to the previous 30-yr period (1950–79). In contrast to the NAO–SWUS temperature relationship, El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) show only marginal correlation strengths in several limited regions for the same 60-yr period.

Prevalence of Blood Parasites in Local Chickens in Qaradagh District, Sulaimani – Iraq

Hemosporidians are intracellular protozoan parasites found in blood cells and tissues of their avian hosts. They are worldwide distributed and occur in a variety of avian species, including domestic chicken. Blood parasites among village chickens in Qaradagh district, Sulaimani Province in Kurdistan region Iraq, were surveyed during the period of March-June for the year 2012. Haemoparasites investigation was done by microscopic examination of stained blood films which prepared from 170 local chickens (Gallus domesticus).The overall prevalence of all species of haemosporidian parasites over the studied period in tested individuals was 133 (78.2%) with 114 (85.7%) single and 19 (14.3%) mixed genera infections. Plasmodiumspp. was the most prevalent haemoparasite (52.6%) followed by Haemoproteus spp., (19.5 %) and Leucocytozoon spp. (13.5%).The study has reported high prevalence rate of haemoparasites. There isn't enough information about prevalence of avian blood parasites in the studied area, the present study detect for the first time existent of haemoparasites.

Shrimp fishery in northeast Mediterranean Sea and tech­nical specifications of the shrimp nets

In this study, which has been performed in 42 fishery areas between Antalya (Kalkan)-Hatay (Samanda?) in Northeast Mediterranean Sea within April 2005 and December 2006 period, technical specifications of the trammel nets that are used for shrimp fishery, average number of nets and fishing boats, fishing periods and fishing areas have been examined. A total of 10152 trammel nets are being used by 607 fishing boats in the region. The most frequently used shrimp trammel nets are 100 m long, for which 110d/2no (48 mm mesh size) inner panel and 210d/4no (250 mm mesh size) outer panels are used. With this fishery equipment, fishery is carried on for the entire year, while the period of March-June and September-November are the most fruitful months for fishing. The shrimp species caught by shrimp trammel nets are Mar-supenaeus japonicus, Penaeus semisulcatus, Melicertus kerathurus, Metapenaeus monoceros and Melicertus hathor.

Seasonal and annual variation of carbon exchange in an evergreen Mediterranean forest in southern France

AbstractWe present 9 years of eddy covariance measurements made over an evergreen Mediterranean forest in southern France. The goal of this study was to quantify the different components of the carbon (C) cycle, gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (Reco), and to assess the effects of climatic variables on these fluxes and on the net ecosystem exchange of carbon dioxide. The Puéchabon forest acted as a net C sink of −254 g C m−2 yr−1, with a GPP of 1275 g C m−2 yr−1 and a Reco of 1021 g C m−2 yr−1. On average, 83% of the net annual C sink occurred between March and June. The effects of exceptional events such the insect‐induced partial canopy defoliation that occurred in spring 2005, and the spring droughts of 2005 and 2006 are discussed. A high interannual variability of ecosystem C fluxes during summer and autumn was observed but the resulting effect on the annual net C budget was moderate. Increased severity and/or duration of summer drought under climate change do not appear to have the potential to negatively impact the average C budget of this ecosystem. On the contrary, factors affecting ecosystem functioning (drought and/or defoliation) during March–June period may reduce dramatically the annual C balance of evergreen Mediterranean forests.

Saharan dust events at the Jungfraujoch: detection by wavelength dependence of the single scattering albedo and first climatology analysis

Abstract. Scattering and absorption coefficients have been measured continuously at several wavelengths since March 2001 at the high altitude site Jungfraujoch (3580ma.s.l.). From these data, the wavelength dependences of the Ångström exponent and particularly of the single scattering albedo are determined. While the exponent of the single scattering albedo usually increases with wavelength, it decreases with wavelength during Saharan dust events (SDE) due to the greater size of the mineral aerosol particles and their different chemical composition. This change in the sign of the single scattering exponent turns out to be a sensitive means for detecting Saharan dust events. The occurrence of SDE detected by this new method was confirmed by visual inspection of filter colors and by studying long-range back-trajectories. An examination of SDE over a 22-month period shows that SDE are more frequent during the March-June period as well as during October and November. The trajectory analysis indicated a mean traveling time of 96.5h, with the most important source countries situated in the northern and north-western part of the Saharan desert. Most of the SDE do not lead to a detectable increase of the 48-h total suspended particulate matter (TSP) concentration at the Jungfraujoch. During Saharan dust events, the average contribution of this dust to hourly TSP at the Jungfraujoch is 16µg/m3, which corresponds to an annual mean of 0.8µg/m3 or 24% of TSP.

Effect of PRID treatment on conception rate in mediterranean buffalo heifers

To evaluate the possibility to control oestrus in cycling buffalo heifers and induce fertile oestrus in prepuberal ones using a PRID in order to breed them during the low breeding season (March–June period), 79 buffalo heifers in two different farms (TM: n=39; IM: n=40) were used. In each farm, the animals were assigned ( n=19–20/group) to either group A (≤20 months) or group B (>20 months). In March, all heifers of group A, except one, were non-cycling while, in group B, all heifers of the TM and 20% of the IM farm were cycling. Within age group, 10 animals, regardless of cyclicity, received a PRID for 10 days plus PMSG on the 7th day, were inseminated (AI) using frozen–thawed semen at 48 and 72 h after PRID removal and then naturally mated at the oestrus following AI; the other heifers, kept with a bull and naturally mated, were used as controls. Pregnancy was diagnosed by rectal palpation 40 and 60 days after AI and every month during a subsequent 3-month period of natural mating. PRID was useful in inducing oestrus in non-cycling animals (80.0% in TM and 94.4% in IM) and in synchronising the cycle (in oestrus within 72 h of PRID removal, 85.0% in TM and 80.0% in IM). The conception rate (CR) was similar in both farms. In group A, CR in treated animals was 50% in TM and 30% in IM after AI; when including the remaining trial period (AI+natural mating in treated; natural mating in controls), CR was 50% in treated animals, while it was 5% in controls. In group B, CR in treated animals was 35% after AI; when including the remaining trial period, CR was 80% in treated animals, and 53% in controls. PRID plus PMSG treatment of heifers could have an economic impact on buffalo production because a greater proportion of heifers could be bred early. Moreover, with this treatment, it is possible to synchronise oestrus in cycling heifers, overcoming the problem of oestrous detection and increasing the effectiveness of AI programmes in buffalo heifers.

The benefits of computerized real-time river basin management in the Malahayu reservoir system

This paper describes the developments of operating rules for the Malahayu reservoir system in Indonesia. The analysis in this study is based on the use of a simulation model with a nested network flow optimization subprogram, which required hydrologic time series of reservoir inflows as input data. Since estimates of historic naturalized flows were of insufficient length, they were used as a basis for developing a 100-year stochastic series which offered a more challenging input while preserving the relevant statistics of the original historic series. This study shows by how much the reservoir yield could have been increased in the past, assuming that short-term inflow and demand forecasts are available and that the proposed reservoir operating rule is obeyed. The increase is estimated by comparing the long- term average of the simulated diversions at the three weirs with the actual historic diversions which are on the record. A more efficient reservoir operating policy would increase the reservoir yield by 38% in the March-June period and by 33% in the July-October period. If additional local runoff into the weirs is utilized in the same period, the increased supply would range up to 66% in the March-June period and 43% in the July-October period. The results from this study provide a strong argument in favour of investing in modern technology as opposed to massive additional infrastructure development. Key words: linear programming, reservoir rule curve, simulation, optimization, stochastic inflow series.

Kandıra Bölgesinde 1989 Yılında Görülen Kızamık Salgınının Değerlendirilmesi

THE EVALUATION OF THE MEASLES OUTBREAK m KANDIRA REGION ON 1989. ✓ A measles epidemic which is seen in Kandira region, Izmit, during the March-June period in 1989 has been studied and the causes of the outbreak, especially seen in adolescents, has been investigated. Measles outbreak in adolescents is thought to due to unsuccesfull and inadequate vaccination before 1984. The outbreak in infants is thought to occur because of primary vaccine failure and vaccine failure is discussed by this means. Kandira yoresinde 1989 yili Mart-Haziran aylan arasinda gorulen kizamik salgini incelenerek, ozellikle adolesan yas grubunda olusan salginin nedenleri arastirilmistir. Adolesan yas grubunda olusan salginin 1984 yilindan once yapilan yetersiz ve basarisiz asilanmaya bagli oldugu, daha kucuk yas grubunda gorulen salginin ise primer asi etkisizligine bagli oldugu dusunulerek asi etkisizligi konusu tartisilmistir.