Marcellus Region Research Articles

A Consideration of Wildlife in the Benefit-Costs of Hydraulic Fracturing: Expanding to an E3 Analysis

High-volume hydraulic fracturing (“fracking”) for natural gas in the Marcellus Shale (underlying about 24 mil ha in New York, Pennsylvania, Maryland, West Virginia, Ohio, and Virginia) has become a politically charged issue, primarily because of concerns about drinking water safety and human health. This paper examines fracking in the Marcellus region, and the tradeoffs between the energy and economic potential of natural gas extraction and the environmental impacts on wildlife. Therefore, we introduce a new E3 analysis that combines the costs and benefits as regards energy, economics, and the environment. The Marcellus Shale has the most proven reserves of natural gas of any basin in the United States, at 129 trillion cubic feet. Income from natural gas development comes primarily from direct and indirect jobs, and induced jobs (those created when direct workers spend their earnings in a community), taxes and fees, and royalty and lease payments to rights holders. Fracking, however, has detrimental effects on wildlife and wildlife habitats. Terrestrial habitat effects are primarily due to landscape fragmentation from the clearing of land for pipeline and well pad development, which often removes mature forest and creates open corridors and edge habitats. An increase in forest edge and open corridors is associated with shifts in the bird community, as generalist species that do well around people increase in abundance, while forest specialists decline. Invasive plants associated with disturbance further degrade forest habitats. Aquatic habitats are also affected, both directly and indirectly. Hydraulic fracturing requires up to 20 mil L of water per well fracture, most of which comes from surface water sources in the Marcellus region. The removal of water, especially in smaller headwaters, can increase sedimentation, alter water temperature and change its chemistry, resulting in reductions in aquatic biodiversity. Given the reality that hydraulic fracturing will continue, there is a need to develop practices that best minimize negative impacts on terrestrial and aquatic habitats, as well as policies and the resolve to enforce these practices. To achieve a more sustainable balance between economic, energy, and environmental costs and benefits, we recommend that industry, scientists, non-governmental organizations, mineral rights holders, landowners, and regulators work together to develop a set of best management practices that represent the best knowledge available.

Evaluating the spatiotemporal variability of water recovery ratios of shale gas wells and their effects on shale gas development

Unconventional shale gas production in the United States has been largely improved due to the development of hydraulic fracturing technology and is projected to rapidly grow in the coming years. However, the acquisition of freshwater and management of flowback and produced (FP) water associated with hydraulic fracturing operation are two of the greatest challenges in shale gas development, especially in arid regions. For efficient and sustainable water management, a better understanding of freshwater consumption and FP water production for shale gas wells is necessary to appropriately expand and upgrade the existing water network and shale gas network. To achieve this, we first collected water-use volume and monthly FP water production volume data for shale gas wells drilled in the Eagle Ford and Marcellus shale regions. Next, after integrating the data from multiple database sources, the water recovery ratio was calculated as the ratio of cumulative FP water volume to water-use volume and used as a metric to characterize the wells in these two shale regions. Then, we analyzed the obtained water recovery ratio data according to the location and production history to study the spatiotemporal variations across multiple counties and time periods. It shows that around 30% of the collected wells drilled in the Eagle Ford region have the water recovery ratio greater than 1; however, only 1% of the collected wells drilled in the Marcellus region have the water recovery ratio greater than 1. Besides, the water recovery ratios vary significantly across the counties in each shale region. To demonstrate how different water recovery ratio may affect shale gas development, a shale gas supply chain network (SGSCN) optimization model from the literature was utilized to perform two case studies in the Marcellus region. The optimal results suggest that different configurations of SGSCN are required for economically desirable and practically feasible management of shale gas wells with different water recovery ratios.

Assessing Contamination of Stream Networks near Shale Gas Development Using a New Geospatial Tool.

Chemical spills in streams can impact ecosystem or human health. Typically, the public learns of spills from reports from industry, media, or government rather than monitoring data. For example, ∼1300 spills (76 ≥ 400 gallons or ∼1500 L) were reported from 2007 to 2014 by the regulator for natural gas wellpads in the Marcellus shale region of Pennsylvania (U.S.), a region of extensive drilling and hydraulic fracturing. Only one such incident of stream contamination in Pennsylvania has been documented with water quality data in peer-reviewed literature. This could indicate that spills (1) were small or contained on wellpads, (2) were diluted, biodegraded, or obscured by other contaminants, (3) were not detected because of sparse monitoring, or (4) were not detected because of the difficulties of inspecting data for complex stream networks. As a first step in addressing the last problem, we developed a geospatial-analysis tool, GeoNet, that analyzes stream networks to detect statistically significant changes between background and potentially impacted sites. GeoNet was used on data in the Water Quality Portal for the Pennsylvania Marcellus region. With the most stringent statistical tests, GeoNet detected 0.2% to 2% of the known contamination incidents (Na ± Cl) in streams. With denser sensor networks, tools like GeoNet could allow real-time detection of polluting events.

The impact of shale development on crop farmers: how the size and location of farms matter

New technologies coupled with high energy prices, a desire for energy independence, and cleaner energy, have led to many energy companies investing large amounts of capital into rural places. In the last decade, along with solar and wind, unconventional shale oil and gas production has risen steeply throughout the United States (U.S. Energy Information Administration, Drilling productivity report, 2018) boosting economic growth and stimulating wealth creation in many communities. Because farmers own or operate over half of rural lands in the lower 48 states, the possibility is high for shale development to contribute to the financial well-being of farmers with land in shale regions. However, by focusing on the large royalties of some landowners, environmental and social risks that farmers encounter may be overlooked. To address the gap of farmer impacts, I examine the experiences and perceptions of crop farm owners who reside in two established shale plays: the Bakken region in North Dakota and the Marcellus region in Pennsylvania and in one emerging shale play: the New Albany region in Southern Illinois. I survey farm owners of both large and small crop farms, who farm a variety of crops both by conventional and organic methods. By having such a diverse sample of farm owners in both established shale plays and emerging shale plays, I explore how farmers’ experiences differ with respect to their finances and investments, environmental degradation as well as how their perceptions of trust in oil and gas companies and community rifts differ.

Marcellus Shale play and the cointegration of natural gas markets in the Northeast

PurposeThe development of the Marcellus Shale Play has altered the geography of production in the USA, particularly in the Northeast natural gas market. The purpose of this paper is to examine its impact on an already integrated industry.Design/methodology/approachThe authors utilize the methodology of co-integration and focus on the geographic reach of the Marcellus region to examine movements of prices across the upstream, midstream and downstream segments of the industry.FindingsThe results of this paper indicate that prices across segments remain strongly co-integrated with the boom in production. The short-run dynamics, however, reveal a slower adjustment to the long-run equilibrium following the boom, particularly for wellhead to city-gate and wellhead to residential prices.Originality/valueThe growth in delivery infrastructure has not kept up with the boom in production creating bottlenecks. The supply shock brought about by the boom in production has not altered previously established co-integrating relationships but has altered the speeds of adjustment towards the long-run equilibrium.

Weather or not? Welfare impacts of natural gas pipeline expansion in the northeastern U.S.

With the rapid development of new natural gas resources in the United States has come a number of proposals for new natural gas transmission infrastructure. We use a unique and fine-grained data set on natural gas spot pricing and gas transmission operations to model how a local pipeline expansion connecting a Marcellus Shale producing area to the main Transco pipeline system would affect flow patterns and zonal gas pricing across the Transco. Our modeling approach is based on arbitrage cost models for constrained energy networks, accounting for the effects of zonal gas transmission rates as mandated by the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. Application of our model to a data set of daily gas market outcomes and operating conditions on the Transco between 2012 and mid 2014 suggests that the modeled pipeline expansion would increase overall economic welfare in the spot market for Transco deliveries by $1.7 billion and have positive net social benefits of about $0.4 billion. However, more than 80% of this estimated welfare gain occurs in one season (winter 2014) featuring high gas demand due to colder weather. Thus, the spot market efficiency gains associated with pipeline projects in the Marcellus region may be limited by the frequency of extreme cold weather conditions. To examine the sensitivity of our estimates of welfare gains to different weather conditions, we calculate the expected benefits of the pipeline expansion in terms of historical temperatures from 1992 to 2011, and find that Atlantic Sunrise would have increased welfare by approximately $1.8 billion over a two and half year period, on average.

Unconventional energy, taxation, and interstate welfare: An analysis of Pennsylvania's severance tax policy

Natural gas production from unconventional sources has increased over the past decade. A significant portion of this increase has come from output in the Marcellus region of Pennsylvania. This output has altered gas markets and repositioned Pennsylvania as a major gas exporter. It has also put Pennsylvania at odds with other states as it is one of a few without a formal severance tax on extractive resources. In this paper, we combine results from a structural demand model with a two-sector trade model to analyze the interstate welfare impacts of Pennsylvania's current severance tax proposal. Our results demonstrate that most of the welfare losses from this proposed policy are likely to be shifted to residents in other states. We also demonstrate how fluctuations in gas prices can substantially reduce tax revenue. These findings have important implications for both Pennsylvania and U.S. energy policy given the significant rise in energy production from new sources throughout the U.S.

Marcellus Shale Gas Development and Farming

We study changes in farming in the Marcellus region associated with unconventional natural gas drilling activity. Due to concerns raised by the popular press, we consider 18 different county-level agricultural variables. While we find no significant changes in the number of farms or land in farms in drilling counties relative to non-drilling counties, there is an increase in median farm sizes, indicating potential consolidation in drilling counties. Despite anecdotal evidence suggesting a transition away from dairy farming to either beef or hay production, we find no support for this at the county level.

Crime and natural resource booms: evidence from unconventional natural gas production

The USA has experienced a sudden expansion of oil and natural gas production due to the combination of hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling. The energy extraction boom has had many localized impacts, most notably in areas with substantial shale gas reserves. This paper exploits a natural experiment in the Marcellus region to examine one channel of the so-called resource curse, the effect of resource extraction on local crime. The results show that areas experiencing a natural gas extraction boom suffer an increase in overall violent crimes, while property crimes remain similar to non-boom areas. Furthermore, the violent crime increase appears to be driven primarily by increases in aggravated and sexual assaults.

Quantifying methane emissions from natural gas production in north-eastern Pennsylvania

Abstract. Natural gas infrastructure releases methane (CH4), a potent greenhouse gas, into the atmosphere. The estimated emission rate associated with the production and transportation of natural gas is uncertain, hindering our understanding of its greenhouse footprint. This study presents a new application of inverse methodology for estimating regional emission rates from natural gas production and gathering facilities in north-eastern Pennsylvania. An inventory of CH4 emissions was compiled for major sources in Pennsylvania. This inventory served as input emission data for the Weather Research and Forecasting model with chemistry enabled (WRF-Chem), and atmospheric CH4 mole fraction fields were generated at 3 km resolution. Simulated atmospheric CH4 enhancements from WRF-Chem were compared to observations obtained from a 3-week flight campaign in May 2015. Modelled enhancements from sources not associated with upstream natural gas processes were assumed constant and known and therefore removed from the optimization procedure, creating a set of observed enhancements from natural gas only. Simulated emission rates from unconventional production were then adjusted to minimize the mismatch between aircraft observations and model-simulated mole fractions for 10 flights. To evaluate the method, an aircraft mass balance calculation was performed for four flights where conditions permitted its use. Using the model optimization approach, the weighted mean emission rate from unconventional natural gas production and gathering facilities in north-eastern Pennsylvania approach is found to be 0.36 % of total gas production, with a 2σ confidence interval between 0.27 and 0.45 % of production. Similarly, the mean emission estimates using the aircraft mass balance approach are calculated to be 0.40 % of regional natural gas production, with a 2σ confidence interval between 0.08 and 0.72 % of production. These emission rates as a percent of production are lower than rates found in any other basin using a top-down methodology, and may be indicative of some characteristics of the basin that make sources from the north-eastern Marcellus region unique.

Impact of natural gas development in the Marcellus and Utica shales on regional ozone and fine particulate matter levels

The Marcellus and Utica shale formations have recently been the focus of intense natural gas development and production, increasing regional air pollutant emissions. Here we examine the effects of these emissions on regional ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) levels using the chemical transport model, CAMx, and estimate the public health costs with BenMAP. Simulations were performed for three emissions scenarios for the year 2020 that span a range potential development storylines. In areas with the most gas development, the ‘Medium Emissions’ scenario, which corresponds to an intermediate level of development and widespread adoption of new equipment with lower emissions, is predicted to increase 8-hourly ozone design values by up to 2.5 ppbv and average annual PM2.5 concentrations by as much as 0.27 μg/m3. These impacts could range from as much as a factor of two higher to a factor of three lower depending on the level of development and the adoption of emission controls. Smaller impacts (e.g. 0.1–0.5 ppbv of ozone, depending on the emissions scenario) are predicted for non-attainment areas located downwind of the Marcellus region such as New York City, Philadelphia and Washington, DC. Premature deaths for the ‘Medium Emissions’ scenario are predicted to increase by 200–460 annually. The health impacts as well as the changes in ozone and PM2.5 were all driven primarily by NOx emissions.

Postcard from Pennsylvania: lessons learned during successful fight over Marcellus Shale operations that may have applicability to Australian discussion

This article explores the recent history and significance of unconventional natural gas development in the Marcellus region of Pennsylvania, including a look at the state’s historical background on hydrocarbon production, the effect of political and social media campaigns against development activities and the outlook for the future. In consultation with industry and environmental groups, Pennsylvania’s state government has crafted rules and regulations allowing responsible development to proceed, helping industry secure and retain its licence to operate in the process. This success was further made possible by an early and robust public engagement strategy that refuted misinformation and provided proper context for both the benefits and challenges inherent in resource development. However, in neighbouring states like New York and Maryland, similar public strategies and campaigns in support of development were not as quickly assembled and mobilised. The contrasting histories (and final results) help provide a template of lessons learned for other areas considering shale development, including an opportunity to avoid the kinds of mistakes that have led to moratoria, bans or other restrictions on specific well stimulation technologies, such as hydraulic fracturing.

Analysis of local-scale background concentrations of methane and other gas-phase species in the Marcellus Shale

The Marcellus Shale is a rapidly developing unconventional natural gas resource found in part of the Appalachian region. Air quality and climate concerns have been raised regarding development of unconventional natural gas resources. Two ground-based mobile measurement campaigns were conducted to assess the impact of Marcellus Shale natural gas development on local scale atmospheric background concentrations of air pollution and climate relevant pollutants in Pennsylvania. The first campaign took place in Northeastern and Southwestern PA in the summer of 2012. Compounds monitored included methane (CH4), ethane, carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide, and Proton Transfer Reaction Mass Spectrometer (PTR-MS) measured volatile organic compounds (VOC) including oxygenated and aromatic VOC. The second campaign took place in Northeastern PA in the summer of 2015. The mobile monitoring data were analyzed using interval percentile smoothing to remove bias from local unmixed emissions to isolate local-scale background concentrations. Comparisons were made to other ambient monitoring in the Marcellus region including a NOAA SENEX flight in 2013. Local background CH4 mole fractions were 140 ppbv greater in Southwestern PA compared to Northeastern PA in 2012 and background CH4 increased 100 ppbv from 2012 to 2015. CH4 local background mole fractions were not found to have a detectable relationship between well density or production rates in either region. In Northeastern PA, CO was observed to decrease 75 ppbv over the three year period. Toluene to benzene ratios in both study regions were found to be most similar to aged rural air masses indicating that the emission of aromatic VOC from Marcellus Shale activity may not be significantly impacting local background concentrations. In addition to understanding local background concentrations the ground-based mobile measurements were useful for investigating the composition of natural gas emissions in the region.

Salting the Earth: The Environmental Impact of Oil and Gas Wastewater Spills.

Salting the Earth: The Environmental Impact of Oil and Gas Wastewater Spills.

Methane emissions measurements of natural gas components using a utility terrain vehicle and portable methane quantification system

Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions are a growing problem in the United States (US). Methane (CH4) is a potent GHG produced by several stages of the natural gas sector. Current scrutiny focuses on the natural gas boom associated with unconventional shale gas; however, focus should still be given to conventional wells and outdated equipment. In an attempt to quantify these emissions, researchers modified an off-road utility terrain vehicle (UTV) to include a Full Flow Sampling system (FFS) for methane quantification. GHG emissions were measured from non-producing and remote low throughput natural gas components in the Marcellus region. Site audits were conducted at eleven locations and leaks were identified and quantified at seven locations including at a low throughput conventional gas and oil well, two out-of-service gathering compressors, a conventional natural gas well, a coalbed methane well, and two conventional and operating gathering compressors. No leaks were detected at the four remaining sites, all of which were coal bed methane wells. The total methane emissions rate from all sources measured was 5.3 ± 0.23 kg/hr, at a minimum.

Labor market dynamics and the unconventional natural gas boom: Evidence from the Marcellus region

The energy extraction boom of the mid 2000s impacted local economies in areas with substantial shale oil and gas reserves. I examine the impact of the energy boom on the labor market by exploiting a natural experiment in the Marcellus region. In particular, I compare counties with fracking activity in Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia to the control group of counties in New York, which imposed a moratorium and later ban on fracking. I look at how the benefits to the labor demand shock are shared between industries as well as how employment and wages in related industries adjust over the course of the resource boom. The results suggest total employment and wages per job increase by 7% and 11% respectively above pre-boom levels in the three years after the boom, but decline after 4 years or more. The results also show significant positive spillovers to related sectors, such as construction, transportation, retail trade and accommodations. However, there is no evidence of the so called ‘resource curse’ crowding out employment or increasing wages in manufacturing.

Methane Emissions from Conventional and Unconventional Natural Gas Production Sites in the Marcellus Shale Basin.

There is a need for continued assessment of methane (CH4) emissions associated with natural gas (NG) production, especially as recent advancements in horizontal drilling combined with staged hydraulic fracturing technologies have dramatically increased NG production (we refer to these wells as "unconventional" NG wells). In this study, we measured facility-level CH4 emissions rates from the NG production sector in the Marcellus region, and compared CH4 emissions between unconventional NG (UNG) well pad sites and the relatively smaller and older "conventional" NG (CvNG) sites that consist of wells drilled vertically into permeable geologic formations. A top-down tracer-flux CH4 measurement approach utilizing mobile downwind intercepts of CH4, ethane, and tracer (nitrous oxide and acetylene) plumes was performed at 18 CvNG sites (19 individual wells) and 17 UNG sites (88 individual wells). The 17 UNG sites included four sites undergoing completion flowback (FB). The mean facility-level CH4 emission rate among UNG well pad sites in routine production (18.8 kg/h (95% confidence interval (CI) on the mean of 12.0-26.8 kg/h)) was 23 times greater than the mean CH4 emissions from CvNG sites. These differences were attributed, in part, to the large size (based on number of wells and ancillary NG production equipment) and the significantly higher production rate of UNG sites. However, CvNG sites generally had much higher production-normalized CH4 emission rates (median: 11%; range: 0.35-91%) compared to UNG sites (median: 0.13%, range: 0.01-1.2%), likely resulting from a greater prevalence of avoidable process operating conditions (e.g., unresolved equipment maintenance issues). At the regional scale, we estimate that total annual CH4 emissions from 88 500 combined CvNG well pads in Pennsylvania and West Virginia (660 Gg (95% CI: 500 to 800 Gg)) exceeded that from 3390 UNG well pads by 170 Gg, reflecting the large number of CvNG wells and the comparably large fraction of CH4 lost per unit production. The new emissions data suggest that the recently instituted Pennsylvania CH4 emissions inventory substantially underestimates measured facility-level CH4 emissions by >10-40 times for five UNG sites in this study.

Evidence from two shale regions that a riparian songbird accumulates metals associated with hydraulic fracturing

The risk of contamination of surface waters from hydraulic fracturing activities (i.e., fracking) to extract gas from underground shale formations has been viewed primarily in the context of localized point‐source events such as spills with no evidence of contaminants entering food chains. We showed that in watersheds where hydraulic fracturing occurs, an obligate riparian songbird and top predator in headwater systems, the Louisiana Waterthrush (Parkesia motacilla), accumulated metals associated with the fracking process. In both the Marcellus and Fayetteville shale regions, barium and strontium were found at significantly higher levels in feathers of birds in sites with fracking activity than at sites without fracking. The question of what pathway these metals followed from the shale layers to enter the food chain was not resolved by this study, but our data suggested a recent origin for these metals in the riparian systems we studied because levels of barium and strontium in feather samples from reference sites in the Marcellus Region without fracking activity did not differ from historical samples of waterthrush feathers gathered prior to any fracking in the region. Our finding of similarly elevated levels of metals associated with fracking in two geographically distant shale formations suggests hydraulic fracturing may be contaminating surface waters and underscores the need for additional monitoring and study to further assess ecological and human health risks posed by the increasingly widespread development of unconventional sources of natural gas around the world.

Weather or Not? Welfare Impacts of Natural Gas Pipeline Expansion in the Northeastern U.S.

New production of natural gas in the Marcellus region of Pennsylvania has created tremendous opportunities to increase natural gas use in the U. S. Unfortunately, the benefits from this new production are limited by the scarcity of pipeline capacity out of the region. Several new pipelines have been proposed to address this issue. Here we focus on the potential economic effects of one of these projects, the proposal by the Williams Company to expand its Transcontinental Gas (“Transco”) pipeline through the Atlantic Sunrise project in the northeastern United States. The Atlantic Sunrise project would permit additional deliveries from the Marcellus region to markets on the main Transco system. It would also afford more flexibility to the Transco system, by creating the ability to accommodate flow reversals in response to market conditions. To understand the market impact of the Atlantic Sunrise expansion, we develop a model, based on the arbitrage cost approach in Kleit (2001), that is well suited for fine-grained spatial evaluation of the market effects of relieving gas transmission constraints, employing daily data from 2012 to the middle of 2014. To our knowledge, this is the first paper to address the question of the economic effects of a natural gas pipeline expansion. Over the 30-month period examined in our study we estimate that consumers served by Transco from Alabama to New Jersey would have enjoyed about $2.6 billion in total benefits because of the Atlantic Sunrise expansion. There are two specific aspects of our findings, however, we wish to emphasize. First, the benefits to consumers are not uniform over time and will vary greatly with system conditions. More than 60 percent of the benefits in our period of study would have accrued in January 2014 alone, because of the high level of gas demand associated with the “polar vortex” in that month. Second, the benefits to consumers are not uniform over geographic areas. Because of the location of the constraints on the Transco system, we estimate that Virginia-North Carolina-South Carolina customers would benefit nearly three times as much as Alabama-Georgia customers. Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland customers exhibit the highest benefits overall, but would have also been harmed during certain periods when exports from this region to Virginia cause prices north of Virginia to increase. These price increases, however, are far smaller than the price decreases that would occur due to Atlantic Sunrise during severe winter periods.

Quantifying atmospheric methane emissions from the Haynesville, Fayetteville, and northeastern Marcellus shale gas production regions

AbstractWe present measurements of methane (CH4) taken aboard a NOAA WP‐3D research aircraft in 2013 over the Haynesville shale region in eastern Texas/northwestern Louisiana, the Fayetteville shale region in Arkansas, and the northeastern Pennsylvania portion of the Marcellus shale region, which accounted for the majority of Marcellus shale gas production that year. We calculate emission rates from the horizontal CH4 flux in the planetary boundary layer downwind of each region after subtracting the CH4 flux entering the region upwind. We find 1 day CH4 emissions of (8.0 ± 2.7) × 107 g/h from the Haynesville region, (3.9 ± 1.8) × 107 g/h from the Fayetteville region, and (1.5 ± 0.6) × 107 g/h from the Marcellus region in northeastern Pennsylvania. Finally, we compare the CH4 emissions to the total volume of natural gas extracted from each region to derive a loss rate from production operations of 1.0–2.1% from the Haynesville region, 1.0–2.8% from the Fayetteville region, and 0.18–0.41% from the Marcellus region in northeastern Pennsylvania. The climate impact of CH4 loss from shale gas production depends upon the total leakage from all production regions. The regions investigated in this work represented over half of the U.S. shale gas production in 2013, and we find generally lower loss rates than those reported in earlier studies of regions that made smaller contributions to total production. Hence, the national average CH4 loss rate from shale gas production may be lower than values extrapolated from the earlier studies.