Map Soil Organic Carbon Stocks Research Articles

Monitoring soil organic carbon under coastal restoration using time series Sentinel‐1

AbstractSalt marsh soils are key reservoirs of organic carbon. Although the potential for using Sentinel‐1 data to estimate organic carbon in marsh soils has been recognized, there is still a need to find suitable proxies and effective algorithms that enhance predictions. In this study, we assessed the effectiveness of Sentinel‐1 data for predicting soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in salt marshes located on the coast of eastern‐central China. We defined the relations between SOC stocks and remotely sensed data using a knowledge‐based approach (i.e., structural equation modeling (SEM)), and the results were compared with those obtained using a common data‐driven approach (i.e., random forest (RF)). Predictive models were developed using (1) refined images associated with phenological stages (phenological variables), (2) refined images that were classified as statistically important using Monte Carlo feature selection (MCFS‐based variables), and (3) images from the combination of these refined datasets. The predictions were validated using a leave‐one‐out cross‐validation approach. The results showed that SEM was more accurate than RF when predicting SOC stocks using the same type of predictor variables. Models using phenological variables alone yielded the least accurate predictions. Adding phenological variables to the structural equation model with MCFS‐based variables increased the prediction accuracy by 36% in terms of the R2. The results of the case study suggest that images related to phenological stages are good predictors for mapping SOC stocks in marshes. This study highlights the superiority of SEM over RF for developing effective remote sensing‐based models to quantify and map SOC stocks in salt marshes.

Revealing the hidden carbon in forested wetland soils

Inland wetlands are critical carbon reservoirs storing 30% of global soil organic carbon (SOC) within 6% of the land surface. However, forested regions contain SOC-rich wetlands that are not included in current maps, which we refer to as ‘cryptic carbon’. Here, to demonstrate the magnitude and distribution of cryptic carbon, we measure and map SOC stocks as a function of a continuous, upland-to-wetland gradient across the Hoh River Watershed (HRW) in the Pacific Northwest of the U.S., comprising 68,145 ha. Total catchment SOC at 30 cm depth (5.0 TgC) is between estimates from global SOC maps (GSOC: 3.9 TgC; SoilGrids: 7.8 TgC). For wetland SOC, our 1 m stock estimates are substantially higher (Mean: 259 MgC ha−1; Total: 1.7 TgC) compared to current wetland-specific SOC maps derived from a combination of U.S. national datasets (Mean: 184 MgC ha−1; Total: 0.3 TgC). We show that total unmapped or cryptic carbon is 1.5 TgC and when added to current estimates, increases the estimated wetland SOC stock to 1.8 TgC or by 482%, which highlights the vast stores of SOC that are not mapped and contained in unprotected and vulnerable wetlands.

High resolution mapping shows differences in soil carbon and nitrogen stocks in areas of varying landscape history in Canadian lowland tundra

Soil organic carbon (SOC) in Arctic coastal polygonal tundra is vulnerable to climate change, especially in soils with occurrence of large amounts of ground ice. Pan-arctic studies of mapping SOC exist, yet they fail to describe the high spatial variability of SOC storage in permafrost landscapes. An important factor is the landscape history which determines landform development and consequently the spatial variability of SOC. Our aim was to map SOC stocks, and which environmental variables that determine SOC, in two adjacent coastal areas along Canadian Beaufort Sea coast with different glacial history. We used the machine learning technique random forest and environmental variables to map the spatial distribution of SOC stocks down to 1 m depth at a spatial resolution of 2 m for depth increments of 0–5, 5–15, 15–30, 30–60 and 60–100 cm.The results show that the two study areas had large differences in SOC stocks in the depth 60–100 cm due to high amounts of ground ice in one of the study areas. There are also differences in variable importance of the explanatory variables between the two areas. The area low in ground ice content had with 66.6 kg C/m−2 more stored SOC than the area rich in ground ice content with 40.0 kg C/m−2. However, this SOC stock could be potentially more vulnerable to climate change if ground ice melts and the ground subsides. The average N stock of the area low in ground ice is 3.77 kg m−2 and of the area rich in ground ice is 3.83 kg m−2.These findings support that there is a strong correlation between ground ice and SOC, with less SOC in ice-rich layers on a small scale. In addition to small scale studies of SOC mapping, detailed maps of ground ice content and distribution are needed for a validation of large-scale quantifications of SOC stocks and transferability of models.

Mapping soil organic carbon stocks in Nepal’s forests

Comprehensive forest carbon accounting requires reliable estimation of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks. Despite being an important carbon pool, limited information is available on SOC stocks in global forests, particularly for forests in mountainous regions, such as the Central Himalayas. The availability of consistently measured new field data enabled us to accurately estimate forest soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in Nepal, addressing a previously existing knowledge gap. Our method involved modelling plot-based estimates of forest SOC using covariates related to climate, soil, and topographic position. Our quantile random forest model resulted in the high spatial resolution prediction of Nepal’s national forest SOC stock together with prediction uncertainties. Our spatially explicit forest SOC map showed the high SOC levels in high-elevation forests and a significant underrepresentation of these stocks in global-scale assessments. Our results offer an improved baseline on the distribution of total carbon in the forests of the Central Himalayas. The benchmark maps of predicted forest SOC and associated errors, along with our estimate of 494 million tonnes (SE = 16) of total SOC in the topsoil (0–30 cm) of forested areas in Nepal, carry important implications for understanding the spatial variability of forest SOC in mountainous regions with complex terrains.

Modeling Soil Organic Carbon at Coastal Sabkhas with Different Vegetation Covers at the Red Sea Coast of Saudi Arabia

Healthy coastal sabkhas (sabkha is an Arabic term for a salt flat) offer plenty of ecosystem services including climate change mitigation. However, fewer research studies were conducted at coastal sabkhas compared to other coastal marshes. This study was conducted in a total of ten coastal sabkha sites with different vegetation covers along the southern Red Sea coast of Saudi Arabia. The main objectives were to model and predict the distribution of volumetric soil organic carbon (SOC) density (kg C/m3) and cumulative SOC stocks (kg C/m2) using three different mathematic functions (allometric, exponential, and sigmoid) based on sampled and observed soil carbon (C) data (total of 125 soil cores = 1250 soil samples). Sigmoid function showed the greatest fit for predicting the distribution of volumetric SOC density over soil profile depth with mean Adj. R2 = 0.9978, 0.9611, and 0.9623 for vegetation cover of >25–50, >50–75, and >75–100%, respectively. For modeling the cumulative SOC stocks, both validation indices and p of the t-test confirmed that using the exponential function is the most appropriate to be used for predicting the SOC stock among different vegetation covers. Moreover, assessing the topsoil concentration factors (TCFs) showed that the distribution of the SOC content is impacted to a great extent by the vegetation cover at coastal sabkhas. Sampling the soil parameter of interest to estimate the SOC stocks is constrained by time and cost. Therefore, using the exponential function for predicting the distribution of cumulative SOC stocks at coastal sabkhas over soil profile depth is appropriate and promising for mapping SOC stocks at both regional and global spatial scales.

Shapley values reveal the drivers of soil organic carbon stock prediction

Abstract. Insights into the controlling factors of soil organic carbon (SOC) stock variation are necessary both for our scientific understanding of the terrestrial carbon balance and to support policies that intend to promote carbon storage in soils to mitigate climate change. In recent years, complex statistical and algorithmic tools from the field of machine learning have become popular for modelling and mapping SOC stocks over large areas. In this paper, we report on the development of a statistical method for interpreting complex models, which we implemented for the study of SOC stock variation. We fitted a random forest machine learning model with 2206 measurements of SOC stocks for the 0–50 cm depth interval from mainland France and used a set of environmental covariates as explanatory variables. We introduce Shapley values, a method from coalitional game theory, and use them to understand how environmental factors influence SOC stock prediction: what is the functional form of the association in the model between SOC stocks and environmental covariates, and how does the covariate importance vary locally from one location to another and between carbon-landscape zones? Results were validated both in light of the existing and well-described soil processes mediating soil carbon storage and with regards to previous studies in the same area. We found that vegetation and topography were overall the most important drivers of SOC stock variation in mainland France but that the set of most important covariates varied greatly among locations and carbon-landscape zones. In two spatial locations with equivalent SOC stocks, there was nearly an opposite pattern in the individual covariate contribution that yielded the prediction – in one case climate variables contributed positively, whereas in the second case climate variables contributed negatively – and this effect was mitigated by land use. We demonstrate that Shapley values are a methodological development that yield useful insights into the importance of factors controlling SOC stock variation in space. This may provide valuable information to understand whether complex empirical models are predicting a property of interest for the right reasons and to formulate hypotheses on the mechanisms driving the carbon sequestration potential of a soil.

Proportional allocation with soil depth improved mapping soil organic carbon stocks

Soil organic carbon (SOC) is vital to the assessment of land quality, management of farmland and ecological environment, and carbon cycle. A more accurate spatial prediction of multilayer soil organic carbon density (SOCD) can contribute to a better interpretation of the changes in multilayer SOC stocks and carbon dynamics. However, previous mapping techniques still have limitations, such as ignoring the relationship of profile depths, not further taking advantage of vertical distribution and surface categorical information. In addition, it is unclear whether it is better to model each depth interval of SOC separately or to model the total layer and then allocate it. Here, we propose two new methods based on the proportional allocation of soil depth for multilayer mapping: vertical log-ratio method (VLR) of SOCD by applying the percentage of SOCD data and isometric log-ratio (ILR) transformation, and vertical distribution method (VD) of SOCD by considering different land-use types. We compared five methods, including the two new methods, the exponential and equal-area spline functions, and independent modeling without depth information. We combined these five methods with the generalized linear model (GLM) and random forest (RF) to produce predictions of the Sanjiang Plain, northeastern China. The results demonstrated that SOCD did not always decrease with increasing soil depth, and classification of SOCD vertical distribution features needs to be considered by combining with soil depths. For accuracy assessment, the exponential mode with both GLM and RF over-calculated the predicted values and performed poorly, indicating that the blind use of depth information increased the prediction error. The spline function prediction was scarcely better than that of independent modeling. The proportional allocation methods performed better than other separate modeling methods for accuracy and interpretability with GLM or RF, especially for the middle and surface layers. The GLM generated more aggregated predictions than the RF, losing the distribution pattern of the original data. Therefore, we recommend RF combined with proportional allocation methods for spatial SOCD prediction in large-scale study areas. We calculated the SOC stocks in the Sanjiang Plain using our new methods, which were more reasonable compared with those of previous studies and had the advantages of in-depth information, environmental variable selection, and model optimization. Our findings provide not only other perspectives for SOCD mapping, with more fully integrated depth information and more accurate assessment of multilayer SOC stocks, but also provide guidance for the evaluation of land quality, farmland, and ecological environmental management.

Mapping soil organic carbon stocks in Tunisian topsoils

Better knowledge of the amount and spatial distribution of soil organic carbon (SOC) stock at national level is a key element for monitoring, planning and decision-making regarding soil quality management, agriculture or carbon storage options. The present study proposes for the first time a Digital Soil Mapping (DSM) initiative to map SOC stocks in Tunisian topsoils (0–30 cm) at 100 m resolution, using a Quantile Regression Forest (QRF) algorithm, a range of environmental covariates, and a national database of 1540 SOC stock profiles. Our results provided a revised assessment of the SOC stock on the Tunisian territory at 391Tg C in the first 30 cm of soil profile, i.e. an average of 2.53 kg m-2. The map of SOC stocks outperformed global DSM products such as SoilGrids 2.0 in both R2 (0.44 vs. 0.15) and RMSE (1.94 vs. 2.52 kg m−2) and can be used as a benchmark against changes of land use and climate. The importance of the environmental covariates tested indicates the major role of bioclimatic data and, to a lesser extent, remote sensing images and topography-related variables. Our study did not show a significant added value of using additional covariates in relation to nationally available variables or the SOC map predicted by SoilGrids2.0. Finally, our results showed that increasing the quality and quantity of soil profile observations is most likely the best way to improve the future SOC map, starting with the northern region of Tunisia, which has the highest SOC stock predictions and uncertainties in the country. An alternative way would be the exploration of new covariates through sub-national approaches.

Digital mapping of soil organic carbon stocks in the forest lands of Dominican Republic

ABSTRACT Mapping the spatial distribution of soil organic carbon (SOC) in lands covered by tropical forests is important to understand the relationship and dynamics of SOC in this type of ecosystem. In this study, the Random Forest (RF) algorithm was used to map SOC stocks of topsoil (0–15 cm) in forest lands of the Dominican Republic. The methodology was developed using geospatial datasets available in the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform combined with a set of 268 soil samples. Twenty environmental covariates were analyzed, including climate, topography, and vegetation. The results indicate that Model A (combining all 20 covariates) was only marginally better than Model B (combining topographic and climatic covariates), and Model C (only combining multispectral remote sensing data derived from Landsat 8 OLI images). Model A and Model B yielded SOC mean values of 110.35 and 110.87 Mg C ha−1, respectively. Model A reported the lowest prediction error and uncertainty with an R2 of 0.83, an RMSE of 35.02 Mg C ha−1. There was a strong dependence of SOC stocks on multispectral remote sensing data. Therefore, multispectral remote sensing proved accurate to map SOC stocks in forest ecosystems in the region.

Mapping Soil Organic Carbon Stocks in Tunisian Topsoils: National Calibration Significantly Improves Soilgrids Predictions

Mapping Soil Organic Carbon Stocks in Tunisian Topsoils: National Calibration Significantly Improves Soilgrids Predictions

Modelling and mapping soil organic carbon stocks under future climate change in south-eastern Australia

Soil organic carbon (SOC) plays a key role in the sequestration of carbon that could otherwise be warming the atmosphere. Climate change including increased temperature and changed rainfall will greatly impact the global SOC cycle. There are still significant gaps in our knowledge of the size of the global SOC pool and how future climate will affect SOC stocks and flows in many parts of the world, including Australia. In this study, we used SOC data in a Digital Soil Mapping framework to predict current and future SOC stocks across the state of New South Wales (NSW) in south-eastern Australia. In the first phase of the study we estimated the current SOC stock using multiple linear regression (MLR) and random forest (RF) modelling, and in the second phase we projected the change of SOC stocks in the near future (2050s) and far future (2090s) under two Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios based on 25 global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Our spatial modelling showed that estimated current SOC stocks in NSW decreased from east to west. Multi-GCM ensemble means suggested SOC stocks would decrease by 7.6–12.9% under SSP2-4.5 and 9.1–20.9% under SSP5-8.5 across NSW under future climate. The extent of change in SOC stocks varied spatially with the largest mean decrease of SOC stocks occurring in the North Coast and South East (alpine) regions of NSW. Our findings can support decision-making in land management and climate change mitigation strategies in NSW at the regional level. Furthermore, the modelling methods can be applied to other areas where edaphic and landscape properties, land use, and climate data are available.

Mapping soil organic carbon stocks and trends with satellite-driven high resolution maps over South Africa

Estimation and monitoring of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks is important for maintaining soil productivity and meeting climate change mitigation targets. Current global SOC maps do not provide enough detail for landscape-scale decision making, and do not allow for tracking carbon sequestration or loss over time. Using an optical satellite-driven machine learning workflow, we mapped SOC stocks (topsoil; 0 to 30 cm) under natural vegetation (86% of land area) over South Africa at 30 m spatial resolution between 1984 and 2019. We estimate a total topsoil SOC stock of 5.6 Pg C with a median SOC density of 6 kg C m−2 (IQR: interquartile range 2.9 kg C m−2). Over 35 years, predicted SOC underwent a net increase of 0.3% (relative to long-term mean) with the greatest net increases (1.7%) and decreases (−0.6%) occurring in the Grassland and Nama Karoo biomes, respectively. At the landscape scale, SOC changes of up to 25% were evident in some locations, as evidenced from fence-line contrasts, and were likely due to local management effects (e.g. woody encroachment associated with increased SOC and overgrazing associated with decreased SOC). Our SOC mapping approach exhibited lower uncertainty (R2 = 0.64; RMSE = 2.5 kg C m−2) and less bias compared to previous low-resolution (250–1000 m) national SOC mapping efforts (average R2 = 0.24; RMSE = 3.7 kg C m−2). Our trend map remains an estimate, pending repeated measures of soil samples in the same location (time-series); a global priority for tracking SOC changes. While high resolution SOC maps can inform land management decisions aimed at climate mitigation (natural climate solutions), potential increases in SOC are likely limited by local climate and soils. It is also important that climate mitigation efforts such as planting trees balance trade-offs between carbon, biodiversity and overall ecosystem function.

Investigating the spatio-temporal variability of soil organic carbon stocks in different ecosystems of China

Soil organic carbon (SOC) significantly influences soil fertility, soil water holding capacity, and plant productivity. In this study, we applied two boosted regression tree (BRT) models to map SOC stocks across China in the 1980s and the 2010s. The models incorporated nine environmental variables (climate, topography, and biology) and 8897 (in the 1980s) and 4534 (in the 2010s) topsoil (0–20 cm) samples. During the two study periods, 20% of the soil samples were randomly selected for model testing, and the remaining samples were used as a training set to construct the models. The verification results showed that incorporating climate environment variables significantly improved the model prediction in both study periods. Mean annual temperature, mean annual precipitation, elevation, and the normalized difference vegetation index were the dominant environmental factors affecting the spatial distribution of SOC stocks. The full-variable model predicted similar spatial distributions of SOC stocks for the 1980s and the 2010s. SOC stocks in China showed an increasing trend over the past 30 years, from 3.9 kg m−2 in the 1980s to 4.6 kg m−2 in the 2010s. In both periods, topsoil SOC stocks were mainly stored in agroecosystems, forests, and grasslands in the 1980s, with values of 9.5, 12.0, and 11.4 Pg C, respectively. Our study provides reliable information on Chain's carbon distribution, which can be used by land managers and the national government to formulate relevant land use and carbon sequestration policies.

Machine learning in space and time for modelling soil organic carbon change

AbstractSpatially resolved estimates of change in soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks are necessary for supporting national and international policies aimed at achieving land degradation neutrality and climate change mitigation. In this work we report on the development, implementation and application of a data‐driven, statistical method for mapping SOC stocks in space and time, using Argentina as a pilot. We used quantile regression forest machine learning to predict annual SOC stock at 0–30 cm depth at 250 m resolution for Argentina between 1982 and 2017. The model was calibrated using over 5,000 SOC stock values from the 36‐year time period and 35 environmental covariates. We preprocessed normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) dynamic covariates using a temporal low‐pass filter to allow the SOC stock for a given year to depend on the NDVI of the current as well as preceding years. Predictions had modest temporal variation, with an average decrease for the entire country from 2.55 to 2.48 kg C m−2 over the 36‐year period (equivalent to a decline of 211 Gg C, 3.0% of the total 0–30 cm SOC stock in Argentina). The Pampa region had a larger estimated SOC stock decrease from 4.62 to 4.34 kg C m−2 (5.9%) during the same period. For the 2001–2015 period, predicted temporal variation was seven‐fold larger than that obtained using the Tier 1 approach of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification. Prediction uncertainties turned out to be substantial, mainly due to the limited number and poor spatial and temporal distribution of the calibration data, and the limited explanatory power of the covariates. Cross‐validation confirmed that SOC stock prediction accuracy was limited, with a mean error of 0.03 kg C m−2 and a root mean squared error of 2.04 kg C m−2. In spite of the large uncertainties, this work showed that machine learning methods can be used for space–time SOC mapping and may yield valuable information to land managers and policymakers, provided that SOC observation density in space and time is sufficiently large.Highlights We tested the use of machine learning for space–time mapping of soil organic carbon (SOC) stock. Predictions for Argentina from 1982 to 2017 showed a 3% decrease of the topsoil SOC stock over time. The machine learning model predicted a greater temporal variation than the IPCC Tier 1 approach. Accurate machine learning SOC stock prediction requires dense soil sampling in space and time.

Estimating soil organic carbon stocks under commercial forestry using topo-climate variables in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

Commercial forests are expanding globally, with great potential to absorb carbon and mitigate climate change. However, whereas the role of natural forests in carbon sequestration has been widely investigated, there is a paucity in the literature on the role of commercial forests in carbon assimilation. Hence, understanding the role of commercial forests in carbon storage is essential for quantifying local, regional or global carbon balances, which is valuable for climate change mitigation. Soil carbon is known to be the largest pool within any forest landscape, and is controlled by a wide range of physical and climatic factors. However, the relationship between soil organic carbon (SOC) and topo-climatic variables controlling its distribution within commercial forests is still poorly understood. Due to the limitations encountered in traditional systems of SOC determination, particularly at large spatial extents, geospatial techniques have recently emerged as a viable alternative for mapping soil properties. Therefore, this study sought to map SOC stocks variability within the commercial forest landscape, using landscape topo-climatic variables. A total of 81 soil samples was analysed for SOC concentrations and 31 topographic and climatic variables were used as predictors to SOC variability. To reduce multicollinearity, these variables were reduced to 11 using stepwise backward elimination and the maximum entropy (Maxent) algorithm was used for regression analysis to determine the relationship between SOC and the selected topo-climatic variables. Good accuracies were obtained for both training (area under the curve = 0.906) and test (area under the curve = 0.885) data sets, and demonstrate the effectiveness of selected topo-climatic variables and the Maxent algorithm in predicting SOC stocks. This study provides a framework for monitoring the status of soil carbon in commercial forest compartments and provides a viable approach for local, national or regional carbon accounting – valuable for climate change mitigation.
 Significance:
 
 Rainfall and temperature, as well as topographic variables (such as slope, elevation and topographic wetness index) are effective in mapping SOC distribution.
 The model developed is useful in predicting SOC occurrence and yielded an effective framework for continuous monitoring and assessment of SOC.
 The method developed in this study is cost-effective and suggests the use of other readily available climatic and topographic information for the prediction of SOC under commercial forestry in South Africa and indeed globally.
 Results from this study are important to achieve the national carbon accounting objective and are also valuable to forest managers, ecologists and relevant stakeholders in understanding the spatial distribution of SOC.

Multispectral Remote Sensing Data Are Effective and Robust in Mapping Regional Forest Soil Organic Carbon Stocks in a Northeast Forest Region in China

Accurately mapping the spatial distribution information of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks is a key premise for soil resource management and environment protection. Rapid development of satellite remote sensing provides a great opportunity for monitoring SOC stocks at a large scale. In this study, based on 12 environmental variables of multispectral remote sensing, topography and climate and 236 soil sampling data, three different boosted regression tree (BRT) models were compared to obtain the most accurate map of SOC stocks covering the forest area of Lvshun District in the Northeast China. Four validation indexes, including mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), coefficient of determination (R2), and Lin’s concordance correlation coefficient (LCCC) were calculated to evaluate the performance of the three models. The results showed that the full variable model performed the best, except the model using multispectral remote sensing variables. In the full variable model, the regional SOC stocks are primarily determined by multispectral remote sensing variables, followed by topographic and climatic variables, with the relative importance of variables in the model being 63%, 28%, and 9%, respectively. The average prediction results of full variables model and only multispectral remote sensing variables model were 8.99 and 9.32 kg m−2, respectively. Our results indicated that there is a strong dependence of SOC stocks on multispectral remote sensing data when forest ecosystems have dense natural vegetation. Our study suggests that the multispectral remote sensing variables should be used to map SOC stocks of forest ecosystems in our study region.

Agricultural soil organic carbon stocks in the north-eastern Iberian Peninsula: Drivers and spatial variability

Estimating soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks under agriculture, assessing the importance of their drivers and understanding the spatial distribution of SOC stocks are crucial to predicting possible future SOC stocks scenarios under climate change conditions and to designing appropriate mitigation and adaptation strategies. This study characterized and modelled SOC stocks at two soil depth intervals, topsoil (0–30 cm) and subsoil (30–100 cm), based on both legacy and recent data from 7245 agricultural soil profiles and using environmental drivers (climate, agricultural practices and soil properties) for agricultural soils in Catalonia (NE Spain). Generalized Least Square (GLS) and Geographical Weighted Regression (GWR) were used as modelling approaches to: (i) assess the main SOC stock drivers and their effects on SOC stocks; (ii) analyse spatial variability of SOC stocks and their relationships with the main drivers; and (iii) predict and map SOC stocks at the regional scale. While topsoil variation of SOC stocks depended mainly on climate, soil texture and agricultural variables, subsoil SOC stocks changes depended mainly on soil attributes such us soil texture, clay content, soil type or depth to bedrock. The GWR model revealed that the relationship between SOC stocks and drivers varied spatially. Finally, the study was only able to predict and map topsoil SOC stocks at the regional scale, because controlling factors of SOC stocks at the subsoil level were largely unavailable for digital mapping. According to the resulting map, the mean SOC stock value for Catalan agriculture at the topsoil level was 4.88 ± 0.89 kg/m2 and the total magnitude of the carbon pool in agricultural soils of Catalonia up to 30 cm reached 47.9 Tg. The present study findings are useful for defining carbon sequestration strategies at the regional scale related with agricultural land use changes and agricultural management practices in a context of climate change.

Modelling and mapping soil organic carbon stocks in Brazil

Brazil has extensive forests and savannas on deep weathered soils and plays a key role in the discussions about carbon sequestration, but the distribution of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks up to 1 m depth has not been investigated in Brazil using machine learning techniques. In this study, we applied a methodological framework to optimize the prediction of SOC stocks for the entire Brazilian territory and determine how the environmental heterogeneity of Brazil influences the SOC stocks distribution. We used a legacy dataset of 8227 soil profiles which consisted of 37,693 samples. For each profile, the vertical distribution of SOC and bulk density were interpolated to standard depths (0–5, 5–15, 15–30, 30–60 and 60–100 cm) using mass preserving equal-area quadratic splines. The covariates database was composed of 74 variables including bioclimatic (temperature and precipitation) data, soil and biome maps, vegetation indexes and morphometric maps derived from a digital elevation model, with a 1 km spatial resolution. To obtain the best prediction performance, we tested four machine learning algorithms: Random Forests, Cubist, Generalized Linear Model Boosting and Support Vector Machines. Random Forests showed the best performance in predicting SOC stocks for all depths, with the highest performance at 30–60 cm for training (R2 = 0.32) and validation (R2 = 0.33); hence, it was selected for the spatial prediction of SOC stocks. The most important covariates selected by Random Forests using the recursive feature elimination were: soil class, sum of monthly mean temperature (SAMT), precipitation, slope height and vegetation indexes (NDVI, GPP). In total, Brazilian soils store approximately 71.3 PgC within the top 100 cm, where the first 0–30 cm contains almost 36 PgC. Approximately 31% of the total SOC stocks (22.2 PgC) occurs in protected areas (2.6 million km2), which are not subjected to land use pressure and carbon losses. Although the Amazon biome has the highest amount of stored SOC (36.1 PgC), its soils do not represent a good potential for carbon accumulation. Among soil classes, the Luvisols showed the lowest SOC density (6.45 kg m−2) and the Histosols presented the highest values (14.87 kg m−2). More than 57% of the total SOC was found in nutrient-poor, deep-weathered Ferralsols and Acrisols, which are the dominant soils in Brazil. The presented methodological framework covers all steps of prediction process, building maps with known accuracy and has great potential to be used in future soil carbon inventories at large scales. Concerning conservation issues, the results highlight the importance of nature reserves for protecting SOC in the long-term.

High resolution mapping of soil organic carbon stocks using remote sensing variables in the semi-arid rangelands of eastern Australia

Efficient and effective modelling methods to assess soil organic carbon (SOC) stock are central in understanding the global carbon cycle and informing related land management decisions. However, mapping SOC stocks in semi-arid rangelands is challenging due to the lack of data and poor spatial coverage. The use of remote sensing data to provide an indirect measurement of SOC to inform digital soil mapping has the potential to provide more reliable and cost-effective estimates of SOC compared with field-based, direct measurement. Despite this potential, the role of remote sensing data in improving the knowledge of soil information in semi-arid rangelands has not been fully explored. This study firstly investigated the use of high spatial resolution satellite data (seasonal fractional cover data; SFC) together with elevation, lithology, climatic data and observed soil data to map the spatial distribution of SOC at two soil depths (0–5cm and 0–30cm) in semi-arid rangelands of eastern Australia. Overall, model performance statistics showed that random forest (RF) and boosted regression trees (BRT) models performed better than support vector machine (SVM). The models obtained moderate results with R2 of 0.32 for SOC stock at 0–5cm and 0.44 at 0–30cm, RMSE of 3.51MgCha−1 at 0–5cm and 9.16MgCha−1 at 0–30cm without considering SFC covariates. In contrast, by including SFC, the model accuracy for predicting SOC stock improved by 7.4–12.7% at 0–5cm, and by 2.8–5.9% at 0–30cm, highlighting the importance of including SFC to enhance the performance of the three modelling techniques. Furthermore, our models produced a more accurate and higher resolution digital SOC stock map compared with other available mapping products for the region. The data and high-resolution maps from this study can be used for future soil carbon assessment and monitoring.

A Novel Evolutionary Genetic Optimization-Based Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System and Geographical Information Systems Predict and Map Soil Organic Carbon Stocks Across an Afromontane Landscape

AbstractSoil organic carbon (SOC) pool has the potential to mitigate or enhance climate change by either acting as a sink, or a source of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and also plays a fundamental role in the health and proper functioning of soils to sustain life on Earth. As such, the objective of this study was to investigate the applicability of a novel evolutionary genetic optimization-based adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS-EG) in predicting and mapping the spatial patterns of SOC stocks in the Eastern Mau Forest Reserve, Kenya. Field measurements and auxiliary data reflecting the soil-forming factors were used to design an ANFIS-EG model, which was then implemented to predict and map the areal differentiation of SOC stocks in the Eastern Mau Forest Reserve. This was achieved with a reasonable level of uncertainty (i.e., root mean square error of 15.07 Mg C ha−1), hence demonstrating the applicability of the ANFIS-EG in SOC mapping studies. There is potential for improving the model performance, as indicated by the current ratio of performance to deviation (1.6). The mapping also revealed marginally higher SOC stocks in the forested ecosystems (i.e., an average of 109.78 Mg C ha−1) than in the agro-ecosystems (i.e., an average of 95.9 Mg C ha−1).